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Valufolio – March 2018

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Valufolio – March 2018 Issue 4 – 11th April 2018 ValuFolio – March 2018 . At the Q1 juncture, the majority of our strategies have been able to . eROC Global 90, our diversified global strategy, is flat QTD vs a beat the market, partly thanks to a good month of March. Seven quarterly fall of -1.4% for MSCI World LC. This is another example of a strategies were able to beat or match their benchmark (the best being strategy “doing the job”. We note as well that the strategy’s volatility in eROC USA 60, with an excess return of 2.2% for the quarter) and only one, March was 11.9% vs 14.4% for the market. eROC Europe 30, could not. We always look for improvement, but we are . We benefitted this month again from a takeover situation, with satisfied with the overall behaviour of our strategies, which displayed no Takeda revealing its intention to bid for Shire Plc. Incidentally, we note that style drift and broadly did what they were designed to do. four out of the five best contributors in Europe came from the U.K., which . The eROC Global Sector 30 is exemplary in this respect. This iconoclastic is showing continuous signs of being the value market in this region. strategy usually performs well in an uncorrelated manner, as well as . The risk-controlled strategies had more mixed results. The global occasionally providing some unexpected and thought-provoking version (60 “stable” stocks out of the 90-name global strategy) performed investment options. eROC Global Sector 30 went quite defensive at the well, generating 80bp of excess return and a much lower volatility (11.6% end of 2017, rotating out of the global Technology sector for the first time vs 14.4% for the benchmark). The U.S. version did slightly less well, and the since 2010. Some signal… Solidly positioned in the more defensive sectors, European still needs to improve. including Utilities, the strategy posted this month an eye-popping absolute performance of +20bp in a falling market (-2.5%), fully invested. Pascal Costantini (+44) 203 058 2931 | Joakim Darras (+44) 203 058 2933 | Janet Lear (+44) 203 058 2934 | Diarmid Ogilvy (+44) 203 058 2932 Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, reference 710908 | Company number 9505284 Contents VALUANALYSIS EQUITY STRATEGIES ........................................................................................................................................................... 3 THE VALUE OF… “VALUE” AND ACTIVE MANAGEMENT ............................................................................................................................. 4 GLOBAL TRENDS YEAR TO DATE ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 4 STOCK PICKS CONTRIBUTION ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 6 REGIONAL SERIES ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7 RISK-CONTROLLED SERIES ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7 STRATEGIES FACTSHEETS.............................................................................................................................................................................. 8 GLOBAL STRATEGIES..................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 VALUFOCUS ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 EROC GLOBAL 90 ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 EROC GLOBAL SECTOR 30 ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 11 REGIONAL STRATEGIES ............................................................................................................................................................................... 11 EROC USA 60 .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 13 EROC EUROPE 50 .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14 SAFETY NET STRATEGIES .............................................................................................................................................................................. 15 EROC GLOBAL S 60 ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 EROC USA S 40............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 17 EROC EUROPE S 30 ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18 GLOSSARY.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 20 DISCLAIMER ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 22 ValuFolio | 2 ValuAnalysis Equity Strategies ValuAnalysis uses its proprietary “eROC” models (economic Return on Capital) to value and select stocks in order to build strategies and portfolios for institutional investors. All strategies below are based on our approach to Franchise and Intrinsic value, a detailed exposé of which can be found on our website, The Theory and Practice of Franchise and Intrinsic Value Analysis. Strategy Live Name Since Region Description Page ValuFocus 12-Jun-17 Global The reference portfolio is constructed from 3 lists of stocks: Core Franchises (franchises with little dispute from competitors or from 9 investors and an economic rent of 10%-20%), Emerging Franchises (franchises stemming from an unusual business model, a genuine new sector or an old industry reinventing itself) and Contentious Franchises (franchises under threat with a higher risk / reward proposition). These three sub-portfolios are given a weighting depending on ValuAnalysis' view of their relative potential and these views are outlined in the ValuFocus research reports. eROC Global 90 08-Apr-16 Global The reference portfolio is composed of 90 liquid & large cap global stocks selected and weighted equally on a quarterly basis. Stocks 10 exhibiting a sustainable “economic franchise” with a strong "shareholder pay-out ratio" at a "reasonable price" are selected. eROC Global Sector 30-Dec-16 Global The reference portfolio is composed of 30 liquid & large cap global stocks selected and weighted equally on a quarterly basis. The 11 30 selection is the result of a two-pronged analysis: an initial fundamental valuation appraisal ranks all industry sectors by their median valuation. The 3 industry sectors with the lowest valuations are kept, represented by the 10 most "reasonably priced" stocks within these sectors. In case less than 10 stocks are below the sector median, additional stocks with the lowest valuation outside these sectors are also included. eROC USA 60 22-Sep-17 USA The reference portfolio is composed of 60 liquid & large cap US stocks selected and weighted equally on a quarterly basis. Stocks 13 exhibiting a sustainable “economic franchise” at a "reasonable price" are selected. eROC Europe 50 22-Sep-17 Europe The reference portfolio is composed of 50 liquid & large cap European stocks selected and weighted equally on a quarterly basis. Stocks 14 exhibiting a sustainable “economic franchise” at a "reasonable price" are selected. eROC Global S 60 08-Apr-16 Global The reference portfolio is composed of 60 liquid & large cap global stocks selected and weighted equally on a monthly basis. The 16 selection is the result of a two-pronged analysis: an initial fundamental valuation appraisal followed by a financial risk analysis. First, 90 stocks exhibiting a sustainable “economic franchise” with a strong "shareholder pay-out ratio" at a "reasonable price" are pre-selected. Thereafter, a “safety net approach” (hence the letter S in the name) excludes the 30 more volatile and least stable stocks according to advanced risk metrics. eROC USA S 40 22-Sep-17 USA The reference portfolio is composed of 40 liquid &
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