The Aral Sea's degradation has often discouraging examples from elsewhere in now-exposed sediment that sometimes 9 been invoked as a parable: what lessons in the western United States suggest that become airborne. Second, the volume of does the Aral Sea situation hold for other, there are legitimate reasons to worry that a terminal lake is a function of the bal- similar places? One body of water that it may be on a similar trajectory. ance between water inputs from rivers, has much in common with the Aral Sea groundwater and direct precipitation, and 0 is the Great Salt Lake in northern Utah, water outputs from evaporation.' Thus, a located in the heart of the United States' Similarities and Differences reduction in river inflow can push a termi- arid intermountain west. The Great Salt nal lake into a net water deficit, causing Lake is the largest lake in the United Lessons from the Aral Sea are valu- the lake to shrink. As this occurs, any pol- States west of the Mississippi, and the able for the Great Salt Lake because lutants or salts in the water will become fourth-largest saline lake in the world. It the two water bodies are highly compa- more concentrated. This is exactly what is a unique environment, providing refuge rable, beginning with similarities in basic has happened with the Aral Sea as its for vast numbers of migratory waterfowl physical geography. Both water bodies main tributaries, the Amu and Syr Dar'ya, and resident shorebirds, as well as eco- are located in continental interiors, in have been diverted to support irrigation nomically valuable salts and brine shrimp low-lying depressions flanked by high projects further upstream. In some years eggs. Birdwatchers use the parks and mountains (see Figures 1 and 2 on pages in the 1980s, the Aral Sea was receiving wildlife refuges on its shores and islands, 11 and 12). Consequently, the climates of almost no water at all, and by 1989 it had and adventurous recreational opportuni- the two places are similar: broadly dry, shrunk to the point where it had split into ties are available for sailors and kayakers. with large annual temperature ranges and two lakes, the Large Aral and the Small Art aficionados willing to travel to the mountains much cooler and wetter than Aral, with the Large Aral itself now split remote north shore can view and inter- the desert lowlands. into eastern and western basins.'" In the act with the Spiral Jetty, an internation- Both water bodies are fed when mountain same way, the Great Salt Lake's volume is ally famous work of "Earth art" built by snowpack, accumulated over the winter, fundamentally dependent on river inflow, Robert Smithson in 1970.6 Another artist thaws in spring and early summer, deliver- which is in turn a function of winter deeply affected by the lake, author and ing a distinctive pulse of spring meltwater. snowpack. The mountains of Utah have naturalist Terry Tempest Williams, a Utah River flows decline into late summer and some of the most variable snowpack totals native, writes, "Great Salt Lake: wilder- autumn as the snows melt down. in the intermountain west, so the volume ness adjacent to a city; a shifting shoreline The stark differences in thermal and of the Great Salt Lake fluctuates accord- that plays havoc with highways; islands moisture characteristics between the lake ingly (see Figure 3 on page 13).12 too stark, too remote to inhabit; water in and surrounding land surfaces mean that Differences between the lakes are gen- the desert that no one can drink. It is the the Aral Sea and the Great Salt Lake both erally of degree rather than kind. The 7 liquid lie of the West.'" influence their local climates, moderating Great Salt Lake, for example, is smaller, Because the Great Salt Lake shares with annual and diurnal temperature ranges shallower, and much saltier than the Aral the Aral Sea particularly striking similari- and providing a moisture source for pre- Sea. Salinity for parts of the Large Aral ties in terms of climatic and hydrological cipitation. This is evident in lake-effect may now be above 10 percent, while the characteristics, the Aral Sea can shed snowstorms downwind of the Great Salt partly rehabilitated Small Aral is around 1 3 light on the future water management Lake, for example, and in the climatic percent.1 Salinity of the main (south) arm challenges facing the Great Salt Lake effects of the shrinking of the Aral Sea, of the Great Salt Lake, Gilbert Bay, aver- in response to population growth and a which has caused local annual tempera- ages around 14 percent, but this fluctuates likely regional climate shift toward drier ture ranges to increase by up to nearly enormously with lake level, from 26-28 conditions. The Great Salt Lake is not 11°F between 1960 and 1997, according percent when the lake was at its lowest alone in the western United States in to one estimate.8 recorded level in 1963 to 6-9 percent facing this combined squeeze on water As lakes in the desert, the Aral Sea when it reached its highest in 1986.1" resources from increased demand and and the Great Salt Lake share one more The Great Salt Lake's generally very decreased supply. Could it become an important feature: both are terminal lakes, high salinity makes for a simpler ecosys- icon of twenty-first century American with no outlet to the sea. This has two tem than that of the (originally) brackish water problems in the same way that the important consequences. First, pollutants Aral Sea because few species can toler- Aral Sea became an icon of global water can accumulate in terminal lakes, reach- ate such harsh conditions. Phytoplankton problems in the twentieth century? The ing concentrations that pose a hazard to (Dunaliella viridis and others) provide Great Salt Lake is not yet comparable wildlife and human health. For instance, food for brine shrimp (Artemia francis- to the Aral Sea in terms of environmen- in the Aral Sea basin, agricultural chemi- cana) and brine flies (genus Ephydra), tal degradation. However, future water cals used on the cotton fields have been which in turn provide food for resident and 5 management challenges, a local tendency carried by irrigation runoff into the lake, migratory birds." Halophilic bacteria also to undervalue the Great Salt Lake, and where they have accumulated over decades occupy the lake, imparting a reddish tinge

10 ENVIRONMENT WWW.ENVIRON MENTMAGAZIN E.ORG VOLUME 51 NUMBER 5 w-| |

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12 ENVIRONMENT WWW. ENVIRONM ENTMAGAZIN E.ORG VOLUME 51 NUMBER 5 a broadly freshwater ecosystem, and, in years of very high lake levels, the lower salinities in the main body of the Great Salt Lake allow for greater species diversity and more predation of brine shrimp.16 The dynamics of the Great Salt Lake ecosystem are of great interest to Utah's multimillion- dollar brine shrimp industry, which har- vests brine shrimp eggs for sale to com- 7 mercial aquaculture operations.' Both lakes serve as important oases for wildlife, especially migratory birds. The Great Salt Lake's simple ecology provides abundant food, and its harsh, high-salinity environment deters preda- tors. Consequently, huge numbers-liter- ally millions-of birds use the Great Salt Lake as a refueling stop on their journey between nesting grounds in Canada and the United States and wintering grounds in Mexico and South America. It is dif- ficult to overstate the importance of the Great Salt Lake in this context. For exam- ple, the migratory population of Eared In 1989, the Aral Sea split into two lakes, the northernSmall Aral and southern Large Aral Grebes at the Great Salt Lake represents (left), which is now further split into western and eastern basins. The eastern basin in around half particularis rapidly drying out, as shown in a satellite image from 2008 (right). of the North American total; populations of American White Pelican, White-Faced Ibis, and California Gull are among the largest in the world; and the population of Wilson's Phalarope at the Great Salt Lake in July often constitutes more than a third of the world's total."8 In addition to sheer numbers of birds, the Great Salt Lake's location as a link in the chain of north-south bird migration makes it important not just nationally, but hemi- spherically, qualifying it as a site in the Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network.19 The wetlands of the Aral Sea, in the Amu and Syr Dar'ya deltas, have his- torically played a similar role for water- birds flying from western Siberia and Kazakhstan to spend the winter in south- west Asia, Africa, and India, returning in northern hemisphere summer.20 The environmental degradation of the Aral Sea itself has reduced its role as a migratory stopover, and birds now instead appear to be using the artificial lakes and wetlands afforded by the network of reservoirs on to the saltiest locations. However, gener- sive to spatial and temporal changes in the Amu and Syr Dar'ya. The different alizations are difficult because this appar- salinity. Near the inflow of the Bear River, salinities of the Great Salt Lake and the ently simple ecosystem is highly respon- for example, the Great Salt Lake maintains "original" Aral Sea suggest this transition

SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2009 WWW.ENVIRONMENTMAGAZI NE.ORG ENVIRONMENT 13 would be unlikely to be replicated at the 2 Great Salt Lake. 1

Lessons from the Aral Sea

Numerous lessons from the Aral Sea have been identified in the existing litera- ture. 22 Many focus on the rate of change in natural systems that human interfer- ence can bring, with some emphasizing how rapidly conditions can deteriorate and others highlighting the timescale dif- ference between human perception and environmental degradation. For all the speed of the Aral Sea's deterioration, it can still fairly be described as a creeping environmental problem, one in which Causeways bisecting the Great Salt Lake can restrictthe flow of water,altering lake ecology. changes are small from day to day or even year to year, but over decades add up to disaster.23 Identifying such creep- ing problems and taking early corrective action are difficult yet essential to finding cost-effective solutions? 4 These lessons are general enough to apply to many environmental problems, but a more spe- cific lesson can be drawn for the Great Salt Lake: managing water primarily or exclusively for its economic value can be environmentally disastrous. Given the basic hydrology of termi- nal lakes, it should be no surprise that diverting river inflows caused the Aral Sea to shrink-and indeed, this outcome was widely anticipated within the scien- tific community in the Soviet Union. The Salt evaporationponds at the Great Salt Lake produce importantminerals but may interfere speed, scale, and seriousness of the lake's with lake ecology. decline-and its associated problems, such as salt and dust storms, water pol- increase in agricultural area and cotton the sense that the Great Salt Lake is a lution, and the resultant health effects- production.25 Several independent states waste of water seems to be a part of what were unexpected, but the demise of the in the Aral Sea basin that emerged follow- might be termed Utah's "water mindset," a lake itself was all part of the plan. The ing the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991 collection of ideas repeated often enough prevailing view among decisionmakers are now heavily dependent on cotton for that they acquire the status of unassailable 27 was that they were not fully realizing the export earnings, and the political will to truths, irrespective of their basis in fact. value of the water in the rivers if it simply undertake major changes for the sake of Some water developers have reportedly flowed into the Aral Sea and evaporated; the Aral Sea seems to be limited, although made comments about the Great Salt diverting it to irrigate cotton made much some relatively small-scale rehabilita- Lake to this effect, and a persistent idea, more economic sense, and sacrificing the tion efforts-notably rescuing the Small formally investigated by the state on sev- 26 Aral Sea and its fishery was considered Aral-have been successful. eral occasions, is that dikes should be a reasonable trade-off. Although scien- Similarly, valuing water primarily in constructed between islands along the tists concerned about the environmental economic terms is deeply ingrained in Great Salt Lake's eastern edge to isolate impacts voiced strong opposition to this western U.S. history, law, and attitudes, freshwater inflow, in effect forming a plan, supporters shouted it down, touting and the Great Salt Lake is a prime exam- giant freshwater reservoir (referred to grossly inflated estimates of the potential ple. Although perceptions are changing, in some documents as Lake Wasatch)

14 ENVIRONMENT WWW. ENVIRONM ENTMAGAZI NE.ORG VOLUME 51 NUMBER 5 and making the level of the lake easier difficult to avoid the impression that the maximization has tended to win out over to control. 28 Although this project has Great Salt Lake to date has been managed the more nebulous, but nevertheless real, never been realized because state agencies primarily for the benefit of industry, and benefits of environmental conservation, repeatedly found that costs far outweigh the term "wilderness industrial complex" which include economic benefits from benefits, the lake has been bisected by a is now an apt description of many parts tourist birdwatchers as well as the intrin- 33 railroad causeway, completed in 1959, of the lake. sic value of protecting a unique ecosys- which cut off the lake's north arm from The management history of the Great tem.37 Although management attitudes almost all freshwater inflow (see figure 2), Salt Lake suggests that the state has have evolved and now explicitly recog- driving up its salinity to near-saturation not valued it highly beyond resource nize the importance of non-economic levels of around 27-28 percent and sig- extraction, and members of the public values, the extent to which this has had nificantly altering its ecology.29 Other living within the Great Salt Lake's drain- a truly significant influence on manage- causeways have further chopped up the age basin seem to share this dismissive ment outcomes remains a controversial lake, and because Utah's population is attitude to some extent. Although for- question. 38 An important test case, in concentrated along the western edge of mal survey data are limited, FRIENDS which a proposed major expansion of the Wasatch Mountains, some 80 percent of Great Salt Lake, a local advocacy salt evaporation ponds must be balanced of the state's treated sewage is discharged group, has found anecdotally that the against possible habitat impacts, is now into the Great Salt Lake. One section of four words most commonly associated in process.39 the lake, Farmington Bay, has become with the lake are "big," "salty," "stinky" Besides the importance of valuing the dangerously eutrophic as a result.30 and "buggy"-hardly the most flatter- Great Salt Lake and its water in non- Industrial pollutants, including heavy ing descriptions. 34 Although more for- economic terms, the Aral Sea provides metals, have also found their way into mal research suggests that people living another useful insight: the need for man- the lake, and mercury is now accumu- close to the lake hold more complex and agement at the drainage-basin scale. The lating to high levels in brine shrimp nuanced attitudes, with some residents Aral Sea's problems did not derive from and birds.31 These pollutants derive from expressing a strong sense of attachment management of the lake itself, but from various potential sources, including urban to and affection for the Great Salt Lake, upstream diversion of its tributaries. Simi- runoff, relict mine tailings, and coal-fired it is unclear as yet how far this extends larly, future challenges to Great Salt Lake power plants in upwind Nevada. Waste to the wider population-and unflattering sustainability are likely to include the products from lakeside heavy industry terms can be found even in the descrip- decreased water supply and increased are another possibility. Kennecott Utah tions of those with a strong attachment to demand widely anticipated for the west- Copper, owned by mining giant Rio Tinto, the lake.35 This parallel with the Aral Sea ern United States as a whole. These chal- operates one of the world's largest open- is worrying because indicators of future lenges could affect the Great Salt Lake via cast mines a few miles from the south water demand and supply suggest that changes upstream. However, the current shore, and US Magnesium manufactures this scarce resource will become scarcer. management paradigm is restricted to a magnesium metal on the western shore, If the apparent prevailing attitude toward geographic focus on the Great Salt Lake using magnesium chloride derived from the Great Salt Lake is any guide, it may itself, and consideration of the alterna- lake salts. Although no definitive evi- be only too easy to justify decisions that tives needed to address future problems is dence exists-partly because systematic deprive it of water that could be put to still in its infancy.40 Given the enormous monitoring of Great Salt Lake water qual- "better use" elsewhere-just as with the challenges of day-to-day management of ity only began in 2006-environmental Aral Sea. such a complex and dynamic system as activists and government agencies have In many respects, the management his- the Great Salt Lake, this is not surprising, raised questions regarding the safe dispos- tory of the Great Salt Lake reflects a ten- especially when many basic science ques- al of toxic waste at both facilities, and the sion between two key principles guiding tions remain incompletely or unanswered. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency lake management: public trust and mul- Yet it is clear that managing future Great has recently proposed the US Magnesium tiple use.36 In theory, the lake should be Salt Lake water problems will require a 32 site for Superfund status. managed sustainably to maximize benefit basin-wide perspective. In addition, the state leases large areas to the public. In practice, however, balanc- of the lake's surface to mineral extraction ing the costs and benefits associated with companies that use solar evaporation to different uses-mineral extraction versus Future Challenges for the concentrate lake salts to commercially wildlife conservation, for example-is Great Salt Lake viable levels. Although the process is extremely difficult, if not impossible, and non-polluting, these evaporation ponds often requires a comparison between the Water has always been a scarce and may interfere with some aspects of lake apples and oranges of economic and non- therefore precious commodity in the west- ecology, for example by improving preda- economic values. To date, it would seem ern United States, although historically tor access to nesting sites. Overall, it is that the tangible public benefit of revenue the extent to which fears of imminent

SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2009 WWW. ENVIRONMENTMAGAZINE.ORG ENVIRONMENT 15 water is needed for cooling power plants. 47 At the same time, in common with much of the West, the population of northern Utah's Wasatch Front-the urban corridor along the western edge of the Wasatch Moun- tains-is expected to grow dramatically in the near future, nearly doubling by 2050 to almost 3 million people, with a consequent rise in consumptive water use even with- out climatic effects. 48 Total municipal and industrial water use in the Jordan, Weber, and Bear River basins-which together account for 70 percent of the freshwater inputs to the Great Salt Lake and around 93 percent of the river flows-is projected to increase from 552,000 to more than 1.1 million acre-feet per year from popula- 49 tion growth alone. However, there is enormous room for In response to a regional drought,the Great Salt Lake has visibly receded between 2001 (left) water conservation in the Great Salt Lake and 2008 (right), with even hotter,drier conditions possible due to climate change over the drainage basin, a fact that is well recog- next century. nized by local water managers. Approxi- mately 70 percent of water withdrawals in water shortages have been real versus model consensus on precipitation breaks the Jordan, Weber, and Bear River basins manufactured to serve financial or devel- down, so it is possible that the Great Salt are for agriculture (with hay and alfalfa opment interests continues to be debat- Lake basin might receive more rain and 41 ranking as major crops), and 67 percent ed. However, an emerging consensus snow. However, this may not compensate 0 of residential water is for outdoor use.5 suggests that whatever water scarcities for the greater evaporative and transpira- As one observer has noted: "A quick exist today will likely be heightened over tive losses driven by higher temperatures, look at the statistics on water use reveals the coming century by two key trends: a and some recent research suggests a a startling fact about Utah's water: nearly shift in climate toward drier conditions model consensus for the Great Salt Lake all of it is used to grow grass-either and a growing population, simultane- basin predicting net drier conditions, with in the form of hay in farmers' fields or ously squeezing water from both supply river flow reductions of 10-20 percent by and demand sides.42 The Great Salt Lake mid-century, accompanied by an increase bluegrass in our lawns."51 Indeed, the basin is unlikely to be an exception. in the ratio of rain versus snow, earlier Utah Division of Water Resources is On the supply side, severe droughts peak river flow due to earlier and faster working toward a 25 percent reduction in seem to be a normal part of the region's snowmelt, longer summer low-flow peri- per-capita municipal and industrial water climate. Paleoclimate reconstructions ods, and an increase in the extremes of use by 2050, from 321 to 240 gallons of the last 2,000 years show recurrent precipitation, both wet and dry.45 A grow- per capita per day, using conservation "megadroughts" of an extent, severity, ing body of research indicates that these measures such as xeriscaping, in which and duration dwarfing anything experi- changes may already be under way across drought-tolerant species replace thirstier enced by modem society and indicate the West.46 Although it is important not to traditional grasses and flowers in gar- 52 that the last 100 years or so have been underestimate the uncertainties and com- dens and parks. Further, as agriculture unusually wet.43 Adding to the potential plexities involved in climate projections, continues to suffer economically, and for naturally recurring severe droughts the Great Salt Lake basin seems likely property developers continue to offer is the emerging consensus regarding to face reduced water supply in the com- large sums to convert farmland to urban the impacts of regional climate change ing decades. sprawl, agricultural water use is projected 53 caused by anthropogenic global warm- On the demand side, a warmer climate to decline. These factors complicate the ing. Computer models broadly agree that and a growing population are expected to water-demand picture in the Great Salt the U.S. West is highly likely to become cause increased water consumption. Higher Lake drainage basin, rendering it some- warmer and drier over the twenty-first temperatures are likely to drive greater what less bleak, although climate change century." Outside the desert southwest of water demand from uses as diverse as agri- remains an unpredictable element. New Mexico, Arizona, and the southern culture and electricity generation because Nevertheless, water inflows to the parts of Utah, Nevada, and California, the transpiration increases in crops, and more Great Salt Lake are likely to be affect-

16 ENVIRONMENT WWW. ENVIRON MENTMAGAZIN E.ORG VOLUME 51 NUMBER 5 ed by the combination of reduced sup- inflow of nearly 2.5 million acre-feet per evidence exists. Finally, lower lake levels ply and increased demand. Indeed, the year, every 10 percent reduction in river would further concentrate the wastewater 1991 Bear River Development Act, a flow would lower lake level by nearly in Farmington Bay, which is already in Utah state law, mandates the transfer 2.5 feet, with the Great Salt Lake's natu- effect a sewage lagoon upwind of a grow- of 220,000 acre-feet of water per year ral variability superimposed on top. A ing urban population. from the lake's single-largest source of 30 percent flow reduction due to some freshwater inflow, the Bear River, mainly combination of climate change and to the rapidly growing exurbs south of increased water use could lower lake level Conclusions Salt Lake City.54 This amounts to 18 per- by 7.5 feet. These back-of-the-envelope cent of the river's average discharge into calculations do not include greater evapo- The Great Salt Lake is not the Aral the Great Salt Lake and 70 percent of ration losses from the lake surface. Sea. There are strong similarities, but it its lowest-year discharge.5 5 It is unclear What might be the consequences of is not as mismanaged, probably not as exactly when Bear River water diver- a significantly lower Great Salt Lake polluted, and unlikely to dry up as com- sions will begin-projections have been level? Less water would mean higher pletely, if only because its rapidly dimin- pushed back several times and are cur- concentrations of everything in the lake, ishing surface area and escalating salinity rently at 2025-but part of the Wasatch most obviously salt but also sewage and work to cut evaporative losses drastically Front water mindset is that it certainly other pollutants. Less water would also as it shrinks. However, it is at risk from will be needed.56 Some local water man- mean changes in lake geography, includ- population growth and climate change, agers see significant water transfers from ing greater areas of exposed lake bed, and a persistent failure to see the lake as the Bear as inevitable.57 Given this mind- reduced shoreline perimeter, and islands anything other than a source of industrial set, and given the likely water supply and becoming connected to the mainland. raw materials at best and a waste of water demand stresses of the next decades, it is Such outcomes would have potentially at worst. As freshwater inflows to the reasonable to suggest that Great Salt Lake serious ramifications for lake ecology and lake are squeezed from both supply and inflows will be reduced, perhaps substan- human health. demand sides, what can be done to pre- tially. In fact, a harbinger of the conse- Ecologically, a reduced shoreline could vent the Great Salt Lake from becoming quences of these stresses for the natural mean greater crowding for bird popula- a dead pool of hypersaline brine? environment can be found at Locomotive tions, increasing the risk of diseases such The pessimistic answer is that the his- Springs, a state waterfowl management as avian botulism. Bird populations that tory of western U.S. water management area near the northern shore of the Great depend on island nesting sites for protec- in general, and the Great Salt Lake in Salt Lake's Gunnison Bay. Here, ground- tion from predators and human disturb- particular, is not encouraging. Terminal water pumping for agriculture, combined ance might become vulnerable, a par- lakes in the United States have been with recent drought conditions, has been ticular concern for the American White damaged and even destroyed by water 6 identified as the main cause of an 80 per- Pelican colonies on Gunnison Island. 1 demand elsewhere: Mono Lake and Lake cent drop in flow volume since the 1960s, Finally, although brine shrimp are extraor- Owens, both in California, fell victim reducing important wetland habitat by dinarily hardy, their numbers might be to the insatiable thirst of Los Angeles, some 5,000 acres.5 8 Visiting and resident reduced if lake salinities rise high enough, although Mono Lake is now recovering. 62 bird populations have fallen dramatically perhaps around 19-20 percent. The Great Salt Lake itself has been subject as a result.59 Human health effects include the con- to numerous management plans, none of The case of Locomotive Springs shows tribution of exposed lake bed sediments which have ultimately been effective for that increased demand and reduced sup- to respirable dust concentrations, espe- the lake as a whole, typically due to lack ply can affect water-dependent wildlife cially an issue as urban development of funds.64 Experiments with large-scale habitat. It is reasonable, therefore, to raise seems to be creeping ever-closer to the management, in the form of a Great Salt concerns about the Great Salt Lake as a lake. Preliminary research by the Utah Lake Authority, have been short lived, whole. Although rigorous examination of Division of Air Quality indicates some and, at present, multiple federal, state, lake response to such conditions would potential for reduced air quality at lower and private agencies have responsibility require detailed computer modeling of lake levels due to dust. There is no evi- for managing different components of the the lake's water balance, a general sense dence to date of contamination of dust by Great Salt Lake system.65 of the possible effects can be gained by toxins present in the lake, such as mer- A more optimistic answer recognizes considering the historical river flow and cury or selenium, but adequate research that for all the physical and ecological 63 lake level records. An approximate rule of on the issue has yet to be carried out. similarities, and similarities in attitudes thumb for the Great Salt Lake is that lake Given the concentrations and toxicity of toward the two lakes by some decision- level changes by one foot per 100,000 some Great Salt Lake pollutants, such as makers, profound differences exist in the acre-foot change of water input.60 With methyl mercury, it would be unwise to management contexts of the Aral Sea an approximate long-term average river dismiss this possibility until conclusive and the Great Salt Lake. These differ-

SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2009 WWW.ENVIRONMENTMAGAZINE.ORG ENVIRONMENT 17 ences point to another, perhaps superior, Utah. His current research interests include the weather 11. Annual river inflow to the Aral Sea from the and climate influences of the Great Salt Lake, He may be Amu and Syr Dar'ya for 1959 to 1989 are provided by geographical analogy for the Great Salt contacted at [email protected]. P. Sinnott, "The Physical Geography of Soviet Central Lake: California's Mono Lake. As noted A comparison between the Aral Sea and the Great Asia and the Aral Sea Problem," in R. A. Lewis, ed., Salt Lake was first suggested by Charlie Trentelman in Geographic Perspectives on Soviet Central Asia (Lon- above, Mono Lake was at risk of severe, Ogden's Standard-Examiner newspaper, 4 December don and New York: Routledge, 1992), 74-97, table 4.1 if not complete, desiccation by the 1970s 2005. Very helpful comments on an earlier draft were on page 87. A more comprehensive database of river provided by Brad Marden, Dan McCool, and Carla inflows is available from the Central Asia Regional as Los Angeles diverted its feeder rivers. Trentelman, greatly improving the manuscript. Other Water and Environmental Information System, Data- Today, however, Mono is safe, at least valuable assistance was given by Bruce Allen, John base of the Aral Sea/Bathymetric Characteristics,http:// Cavitt, and Scott Paxman. Cartographic expertise was www.cawater-info.net/aral/data/tabs-e.htm (accessed 17 for now. Renowned limnologist Bill Wil- provided by Justin Morris. Sarah Beam's excellent edito- June 2009). liams has pointed to four key factors that rial work is gratefully acknowledged. 12. M. C. Serreze, M. P Clark, R. L. Armstrong, D. L. McGinnis, and R. S. Pulwarty, "Characteristics of helped save Mono Lake: the Western United States Snowpack from Snowpack * the commitment of a nongovernmen- NOTES Telemetry (SNOTEL) Data," Water Resources Research 35, no. 7 (1999): 2145-60, table 7 on page 2158. tal organization that recognized its non- I. P. Micklin, "The Aral Sea Disaster," Annual Review 13. Micklin, note 1, page 53 economic values, of Earth and Planetary Sciences 35 (2007): 47-72. Although irrigation in this region dates back millennia, 14. See, for example, D. Stephens, "Salinity Induced • the freedom of activists and the public the massive increase in scale from the 1960s is respon- Changes in the Aquatic Ecosystem of Great Salt Lake, to express their views, sible for the current problems. Utah' in J. K. Pitman and A. R. Carroll, eds., Modern & 2. Soviet scientists were working on the problems Ancient Lake Systems: New Problems and Perspectives * a legal system that took account of in the Aral Sea basin from the beginning of the irriga- (Salt Lake City, UT: Utah Geological Association, 1998), non-economic values, and tion expansion, but the story was picked up in the West 1-8. By comparison, ocean water has an average salinity of around 3 percent. • a legislature that implemented judicial mainly from the late 1980s onward. The first serious 66 English-language analysis of the situation was probably 15. Ibid. findings. P. P. Micklin, "Desiccation of the Aral Sea: A Water 16. Ibid.; see also W. A. Wurtsbaugh and T. S. In the decisionmaking context of the Management Disaster in the Soviet Union," Science 241, Berry, "Cascading Effects of Decreased Salinity on the no. 4870 (2 September 1988): 1170-76. Involvement of Plankton Chemistry, and Physics of the Great Salt Lake organizations is well Soviet Union, none of these factors international and nongovernmental (Utah)," CanadianJournal of Fisheries andAquatic Sci- and the Disap- illustrated by R. Ferguson, The Devil ence 47, no, 1 (1990): 100-09. applied, but in the decisionmaking con- pearing Sea: Or, How I Tried to Stop the World's Worst text of the Great Salt Lake, they all do. Ecological Catastrophe (Vancouver, British Columbia: 17. For an overview of the importance of the Great Raincoast Books, 2003). Salt Lake to aquaculture operations globally, see This, combined with the advances made P. Lavens and P. Sorgeloos, "The History, Present Sta- 3. Micklin, note 1, page 55; and S. L. O'Hara, G. F. tus and Prospects of the Availability of Artemia Cysts by water managers in shifting the plan- S. Wiggs, B. Mamedov, G. Davidson, and R. B. Hub- for Aquaculture," Aquaculture 181, nos. 3-4 (2000): bard, "Exposure to Airborne Dust Contaminated with ning emphasis from supply to demand 397-403. Pesticide in the Aral Sea Region," The Lancet 355, no. management, and the enormous potential 9204 (19 February 2000): 627-28. 18. T. W. Aldrich and D. S. Paul, "Avian Ecology of 4. For example, Micklin, note 2; V. M. Kotlyakov, Great Salt Lake," in J. W. Gwynn, ed., Great Salt Lake: for additional conservation, suggests that An Overview of Change (Salt Lake City, UT: Utah Geo- "The Aral Sea Basin: A Critical Environmental Zone," the Great Salt Lake can be taken off Environment 33, no. 1 (1991): 4-9 and 36-38; and M. H. logical Survey, 2002), 343-74. the path that leads to an outcome like Glantz, A. Z. Rubinstein, and I. Zonn, "Tragedy in the 19. See Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Net- Aral Sea Basin: Looking Back to Plan Ahead?" Global work, http://www.whsm.org/index.html (accessed 17 that of the Aral Sea. Indeed, the Great Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions June 2009). Salt Lake Advisory Council, a group of 3, no. 22 (1993): 174-98. 20. N. Chemetsov, V. N. Bulyuk, and P Ktitorov, local experts convened by Utah Governor 5. As the Aral Sea shrank, it split into two parts, "Migratory Stopovers of Passerines in an Oasis at the the Large Aral and the Small Aral. The Small Aral has Crossroads of the African and Indian Flyways," Ringing Jon Huntsman, has proposed progres- been closed off from the Large Aral via dikes and dams, & Migration23, no. 4 (2007): 243-5 1. sive new ideas for lake management. allowing retention of freshwater inflows and an increase 21. E. A. Kreuzberg-Mukhina, "The Effect of Habitat in lake level and reduction in salinity-an important Specifically recommended is a Great Change on the Distribution of Waterbirds in Uzbekistan environmental improvement, but nevertheless a relatively and the Possible Implications of Climate Change:' in Salt Lake Commission to guide develop- small one in comparison to the scale of the problems. G. C. Boere, C. A. Galbraith, and D. A. Stroud, eds., See Micklin, note 1; and P. Micklin and N. V. Aladin, ments within the entire drainage basin WaterbirdsAround the World: A Global Overview of the "Reclaiming the Aral Sea," Scientific American 298, no. Conservation, Management and Research of the World's and serve as a forum for coordination 4 (2008): 64-71. Waterbird Flyways (Edinburgh, UK: The Stationery 67 6. H. S. Loe, "Robert Smithson's Spiral Jetty," in Office Limited, 2006), 277-82. between management agencies. Thus Lake: An Overview of J. W. Gwynn, ed., Great Salt 22. See, for example, Micklin and Aladin, note 5, Geological Survey, far, efforts to manage the Great Salt Lake Change (Salt Lake City, UT: Utah page 71; A. U. Reteyum, "Overview," Environment 33, 2002), 553-60; see also E. Hogan, Spiral Jetta: A Road no. 1 (1991): 45; and United Nations Environment Pro- have been geographically restricted to the Trip Through the Land Art of the American West (Chi- gramme, The Critical Connection: Water Security and of Chicago Press, 2008). lake itself. The nature of future threats to cago, IL: University Ecosystem Services (Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations the Great Salt Lake and the many existing 7. T. T. Williams, Refuge: An Unnatural History Environment Programme, 2009), page 21. of Family and Place (New York, NY: Vintage Books, 23. See M. H. Glantz, ed., Creeping Environmental management problems require a broader 1992). Problems and Sustainable Development in the Aral Sea perspective, which must now be turned 8. W. J. Steenburgh, S. F. Halvorson, and D. J. Onton, Basin (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, "Climatology of Lake-Effect Snowstorms of the Great 1999). into a concrete management reality if the Salt Lake," Monthly Weather Review 128, no. 3 (2000): Great Salt Lake is to meet the water chal- 709-27; and E. E. Small, L. C. Sloan, and D. Nychka, 24. M. H. Glantz, "Aral Sea Basin: A Sea Dies, A Sea "Changes in Surface Air Temperature Caused by Desic- Also Rises," AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environ- lenges of the twenty-first century. Doing cation of the Aral Sea," Journal of Climate 14, no. 3 ment 36, no. 4 (2007): 323-27. so would be a major step in prevent- (2001): 284-99. 25. English-language sources demonstrating this view ing the Great Salt Lake from becoming 9. Not all pollutants enter terminal lakes and never include Glantz, Rubinstein, and Zonn, note 4, pages leave, however. Some pollutants important in the Great 186-89; Sinnott, note 11, page 89; and B. Z. Rumer, America's Aral Sea. Salt Lake, such as selenium, can evaporate. Soviet Central Asia: "A Tragic Experiment" (Boston, MA: Unwin Hyman, Inc., 1989): 81-85. 10. For a good overview of terminal lake dynamics, Daniel Bedford is an associate professor in the Geog- see W. D. Williams, "What Future for Saline Lakes?" 26. Micklin, note 1, pages 60-61; Micklin and Ala- raphy Department at Weber State University in Ogden, Environment 38, no. 9 (1996): 12-20 and 38-39. din, note 5, pages 68-69; and Glantz, note 23.

18 ENVIRONMENT WWW.ENVIRONM ENTMAGAZIN E,ORG VOLUME 51 NUMBER 5 27. D. McCool, "Politics, Water and Utah." in ment (Salt Lake City, UT: Utah Department of Natural 49. Water demand figures are from Utah Division of D. McCool, ed., Waters of Zion: The Politics of Water Resources, 2000), pages 1 and 10-11. Water Resources, Utah State Water Plan. Utah's Water in Utah (Salt Lake City, UT: University of Utah Press, Resources: Planningfor the Future (Salt Lake City, UT: 1995), 3-27. 37. See R. W. Adler, "Toward Comprehensive Water- shed Based Restoration and Protection for Great Salt Utah Department of Natural Resources, 2001), page 21. 28. Specific instances of comments by water devel- Lake," Utah Law Review 1999, no. 1 (1999): 100-292. Contributions of the Bear, Weber, and Jordan Rivers to opers that water flowing into the Great Salt Lake is the Great Salt Lake are from Great Salt Lake Planning wasted are reported by C. Denton, Bear River: Last 38. Ibid., notably 15-16, refers to the importance of Team, Great Salt Lake Comprehensive Management Chance to Change Course (Logan, UT: Utah State non-economic values. However, one member of the Divi- Plan Resource Document (Salt Lake City, UT: Utah sion University Press, 2007), page 158. Denton refers to of Forestry, Fire and State Lands Advisory Council Department of Natural Resources, 2000), page 10. has recently resigned in protest over the division's per- a meeting of the Jordan Valley Water Conservancy 50. Utah Division of Water Resources, ibid., 20-21 ceived inefficacy in Great Salt Lake management. District in June 2000, when the comments were made. See and 28. Dike proposals are also often justified using statements C. Gates, "Plans Stir Up Debate Over Great Salt Lake's 51. McCool, note 27, page 7. The statement remains to this effect, for example, A. Z. Richards, Jr., "Review Fate." Deseret News, 6 July 2009. as apposite in 2009 as it was in 1995. of Past Studies of the East Embayment as a Fresh 39. The proposal, by Great Salt Lake Minerals Corpo- Water Reservoir," in American Water Resources Asso- ration, is for an expansion of existing facilities by around 52. Utah Division of Water Resources, Utah's M&I ciation, Utah Section, The Great Salt Lake and Utah's 91,000 acres, of which around 80,000 acres would be in Water Conservation Plan: Investing in the Future (Salt Water Resources: Proceedings of the First Annual the lake itself, from a current area of around 47,000 acres. Lake City, UT: Utah Department of Natural Resources, Conference of the Utah Section of the American Water Most of the increased area would be along the western 2003), page 2. Resources Association (Salt Lake City, UT, 1972): shore of the north arm. For opinions and information on 53. Utah Division of Water Resources, note 49, 180-89, page 180. A summary of dike proposals can each side of the argument, see K. W. Gibson, "Great Salt 20-21. be found in J. W. Gwynn, "The Waters Surrounding Lake Expansion Plan Works," Salt Lake Tribune, 17 July 54. Denton, note 28, page 160. See also Utah Division Antelope Island, Great Salt Lake. Utah," in Gwynn, 2009 (supporting); and FRIENDS of Great Salt Lake, of Water Resources, Bear River Development Report note 6, pages 116-17. These aspects of Utah's water GSL Minerals Expansion Summary Sheet-July 2009, (Salt Lake City, UT: Utah Division of Water Resources, mindset are thoroughly examined in Williams, note 7, http://www.fogsl.org/index.php?option=com_content 2005), page 6. especially page 265. &task=view&id=150&Itemid=53 (accessed 24 July 55. Denton, note 28, page 229; also U.S. Geological 29. Stephens, note 14. The most obvious ecological 2009) (opposing). Survey National Water Information System streamflow changes are the dominance of halophilic bacteria, giv- 40. Adler, note 37; Great Salt Lake Planning Team, data for river gauge USGS 10126000 Bear River near ing the water a red (or sometimes purple) tinge, and the note 36, 9-13. Corinne, http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/nwisman/?site reduction in numbers of most other life. A small popula- 41. McCool, _no=10126000 (accessed 20 June 2009). tion of adult brine shrimp is present in the north arm, note 27; see also M. Reisner, Cadillac washed in from the south arm through culverts in the Desert: The American West and Its DisappearingWater 56. Utah Division of Water Resources, note 52, causeway, but they seem unable to reproduce because of (New York, NY: Penguin Books, 1993). page 2. the higher salinty in the north arm. 42, An accessible, non-technical overview of the issue 57. Denton, note 28, 180-183. 30. W. A, Wurtsbaugh, D. L. Naftz, and S. R. Bradt, is provided by R. Kunzig, "Drying of the West," National 58, H. A. Hurlow and N. Burk, Geology and Ground- "Eutrophication, Nutrient Fluxes, and Connectivity Geographic 213, no. 2 (2008): 90-113. Water Chemistry, Curlew Valley, Northwestern Utah Between the Bays of Great Salt Lake, Utah (USA)," in 43. A review of recent drought research is provided and South-Central Idaho-Implicationsfor Hydrogeol- A. Oren, D. Naftz, P. Palacios and W. A. Wurtsbaugh, by E. R. Cook, R. Seager, M. A. Cane and D. W. Stahle, ogy, Utah Geological Survey Special Study 126 (Salt eds., Saline Lakes around the World: Unique Systems "North American Drought: Reconstructions, Causes, Lake City, UT: Utah Department of Natural Resources. with Unique Values, Natural Resources and Environ- and Consequences," Earth Science Reviews 81, no. 1-2 2008), 1-2; and Great Salt Lake Planning Team, note mental Issues, volume XV (Logan, UT: S. J. and Jessie (2007): 93-134. 49, 83-84. E. Quinney Natural Resources Research Library, 2009), 44. J. H. Christensen 59. M. Stark, "Study: Farming, Drought Sucking page 51. Eutrophication is the addition of nutrients et al., "Regional Climate Projec- tions:' in S. Water from Springs," Salt Lake Tribune, 26 November to a water body, promoting plant growth such as Solomon et al.. eds., Climate Change 2007: The Physical 2008. algal blooms. The oxygen demand that results when Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the FourthAssessment algal blooms decay can render a water column largely Report of the Inter- 60. Great Salt Lake Planning Team, note 49, page 8. governmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, anoxic. 61. FRIENDS of Great Salt Lake, Final Protest to UK, and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007): Utah Division of Water Rights (July 8 2009), http://www 31. D. Naftz et al., "Anthropogenic Influences on 847-940. Discussion of the western United States can be .fogsl.org/images/stories/final_corrected gslm_353000 the Input and Biogeochemical Cycling of Nutrients and found on pages 850, 856, and 887-892. Mercury in Great Salt Lake, Utah, USA," Applied Geo- -af-protest.pdf (accessed 13 July 2009). chemistry 23, no. 6 (2008): 1731-44. 45. P. C. D. Milly, K. A. Dunne and A. V. Vecchia, 62. Brine shrimp responses to environmental vari- "Global Pattern of Trends in Streamflow and Water 32. See, for example, C. Ward, Canarieson the Rim: ables are very complex, however. See D. Stephens and Availability in a Changing Climate," Nature 438, no. P. Birdsey, "Population Dynamics of the Brine Shrimp, Living Downwind in the West (London and New York: 7066 (17 November 2005): 347-50; P C. D. Milly et Verso, 1999), 189-214; C. Smart, "Kennecott May Artemia Franciscana,in Great Salt Lake and Regulation al., "Stationarity is Dead: Whither Water Management?" of Commercial Give Up Wetlands," Salt Lake Tribune, 5 March 2008; Shrimp Harvest," in Gwynn, note 6, Science 319, no. 5863 (1 February 2008): 573-74; and pages 329-30. P. Henetz, "Feds Sue Plant for Alleged PCB Spill:' Salt T. Karl, J. Melillo, T. Peterson, and S. J Hassol, eds., Lake Tribune, 14 May 2005; and J. Fahys, "Comments Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States 63. Utah Department of Environmental Quality, "Air Pour In on Superfund Proposal," Salt Lake Tribune, (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2009), Study Gives Insight of Dust from Great Salt Lake," 3 December 2008. There are currently no federally 41-52 and 129-34. Environmental Connection, May 2006, http://www.deq approved water quality standards for the Great Salt .utah.gov/Newsletter/2006/May/AirStudy.htm (accessed Lake, although the State of Utah has recently proposed 46. P. W. Mote, A. F. Hamlet, M. P. Clark, and D. 23 July 2009). P. Lettenmaier, "Declining Mountain Snowpack in a somewhat controversial standard for selenium, which 64. P. M, Morrisette, "The Stability Bias and Adjust- Western North America," Bulletin of the American now awaits federal approval. ment to Climatic Variability: The Meteorological Society 86, no. 1 (2005): 39-49; T. P. Case of the Rising 33. Williams, note 7, especially 247-51. The term Level of the Great Salt Lake," Applied Geography Barnett et al., "Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrol- 8, no. "wilderness industrial 3 (1988): 171-89. complex" as applied to the Great ogy of the Western United States," Science 319, no. Salt Lake appears in D. Record, "The Wonder to the 5866 (22 February 2008): 1080-83; D. W. Pierce et 65. See Adler, note 37. West: Antelope and Fremont Islands in the Great Salt al., "Attribution of Declining Western U.S. Snowpack 66. W. D. Williams, Lake," STREET Magazine, Spring (2005): 30-31. "Environmental Threats to Salt to Human Effects," Journal of Climate 21, no. 23 Lakes and the Likely Status of Inland Saline Ecosystems 34. FRIENDS of Great Salt Lake, The Lake Affect: (2008): 6425-44; and D. Bedford and A. Douglass, in 2025," Environmental Conservation 29, no. 2 (2002): Living Together Along the Shores of Something Great "Changing Properties of Snowpack in the Great Salt 154-67. (Salt Lake City, UT: FRIENDS of Great Salt Lake, Lake Basin, Western United States, from a 26-Year 67. Great Salt Lake Advisory Council, 2004), video. SNOTEL Record," The Professional Geographer60, Recommenda- tions on the Establishment no. 3 (2008): 374-86. of a Great Salt Lake Com- 35. C. K. Trentelman, 'Big, Smelly, Salty Lake That I mission, 28 April 2009, http://www.gslcouncil.utah.gov- Call Home': Sense of Place with a Mixed Amenity Set- 47. Karl, Melillo, Peterson, and Hassol, note 45, docs/GSLAC-Recs_Final.pdf (accessed 13 July 2009). ting (Logan, UT: Ph.D. diss., Department of Sociology, page 52. Social Work and Anthropology, Utah State University, 48. Utah Governor's Office of Planning and Bud- 2009). get, Demographic and Economic Projections, http:// 36. Great Salt Lake Planning Team, GreatSalt Lake govemor.utah.gov/dea/projections.html (accessed 20 Comprehensive Management Plan and Decision Docu- June 2009).

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TITLE: The Great Salt Lake: America’s Aral Sea? SOURCE: Environment 51 no5 S/O 2009

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