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Report of the Independent Review Into the Tasmanian Floods of June and July 2016

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Report of the Independent Review into the Tasmanian Floods of June and July 2016 Shared responsibility, resilience and adaptation June 2017 This page is intentionally blank 1 June 2017 Honourable Rene Hidding Minister for Police, Fire and Emergency Management Level One, Franklin Square Hobart TAS 7000 Dear Minister, Independent Review into the Tasmanian Floods of June and July 2016 I attach my Report into the above. Yours faithfully Mike Blake Lead Investigator Foreword In this report of my Review of the Tasmanian Floods of June and July 2016 I note that, “… during this event it didn’t just rain: the rain experienced was extreme in the Tasmanian context and so the fact that it led to flooding was not just unsurprising, it was to be expected. These totals, that would be significant in any environment, were particularly so for Tasmania.” Also most evident was the need for me, as my team and I went about our work, to be very conscious of the benefits of hindsight and to regularly pose the question – “how might I have responded to these incidents at the time?” Perhaps in answering this question as we went along, I observed examples of entities that had learnt more from past experiences than may have others. While I am not saying this happened on this occasion, there is a risk with natural hazards like floods, that communities and emergency authorities forget when floods do not occur for many years, resulting in lower awareness and preparedness. Communities change and age and perhaps forget. We need systems that regularly test and constantly remind all of us without being alarming. Much good work is done both nationally and in Tasmania on natural hazard risk assessments and, in doing so, there were high levels of engagement between numerous relevant parties. Less effective was communication of these risks, and actions needed, with communities, although an exception to this is how our State has recently managed fire risks. There is much that our fire services can share with other emergency services authorities although always remembering that fire is, currently, more frequent. I was surprised by the very high costs associated with floods and by finding that floods are not infrequent in Tasmania. Also noted from more than one authoritative source was the view that Australia as a nation, and I suspect this similarly applies to Tasmania, underinvests in natural disaster mitigation. Government1 and local authorities need to examine and address this. This Review identified many emergency management related reviews occurring and completed in recent years in Tasmania and nationally. Submissions made to us identified many good suggestions. Government and local governments are urged to review these ideas and to invest resources in addressing them. Hopefully some suggestions will be addressed by proposed planning laws which, at the time of preparing this Report, have still to be finalised. However, it is not just the State (collectively Government and local governments) that needs to have regard to risks associated with flood and other hazardous events. We all must. We have a shared responsibility in doing this. So, when advice is provided, or training offered, by our emergency management authorities, we all need to listen and, when relevant, take up opportunities offered to learn so as to be more aware, better prepared and to build our collective resilience. This is particularly so as the make-up of our communities and businesses change. With floods in mind, perhaps what is also needed is heightened awareness when flood watch notices are issued by the Bureau of Meteorology rather than waiting for flood warnings. 1 Throughout this Report Government refers to the Tasmanian Government unless specified otherwise. Report of the Independent Review into the Tasmanian Floods of June and July 2016 Page i Finally, and I raise this with no particular view about the causes, perhaps greater attention may be needed to agencies we establish or why bother to set them up? I refer to agencies like the Tasmanian Climate Change Office. Its research indicates temperatures will rise and rainfall will remain unchanged but there will be more intense rainfall events. The implications of this research need to be considered for the benefit of all Tasmanians. It is incumbent on emergency management authorities to work together more to better inform all Tasmanian communities about the dangers of floods, in which parts of the State flood risk is the highest and how we can all, not just governments, better prepare. Without this, there is a real risk that the June 2016 experience will be forgotten. Some councils clearly demonstrated what they had learnt from past events; it is up to all of us similarly to do so. I acknowledge and thank my Review Team members, Mr Paul Considine from the National Aerial Firefighting Centre in Melbourne and Inspector Brian Edmonds of Tasmania Police, for their expert emergency management advice, experience and insights. Also thanked are each of the 54 submitters to this Review and the many parties we interviewed and engaged with during our work; your views and suggestions were in all instances helpful. Mike Blake Lead Investigator 1 June 2017 Report of the Independent Review into the Tasmanian Floods of June and July 2016 Page ii Contents Foreword ........................................................................................................................................... i Executive summary ............................................................................................................................. 1 Background ........................................................................................................................................... 1 Terms of Reference ............................................................................................................................... 1 Conclusions and recommendations ....................................................................................................... 2 PART A INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND ................................................................................ 11 1. About this Review ....................................................................................................................... 12 2. Structure of this Report ............................................................................................................... 15 3. Agency debriefs and acknowledgments ...................................................................................... 16 PART B REVIEW FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................... 17 Section 1 Effectiveness of strategies, preparedness and plans................................................. 18 1.1 National, state and regional plans prior to the June 2016 floods ................................................. 19 1.2 Preparedness ............................................................................................................................. 22 1.3 Were these plans effective? ........................................................................................................ 28 1.4 Potential risk mitigation using flood levees .................................................................................. 30 1.5 Reviews underway prior to the June floods ................................................................................. 32 1.6 Exercise and lessons management unit ...................................................................................... 34 1.7 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................ 34 1.8 Summary of recommendations in this Section ............................................................................ 35 Section 2 Community awareness, preparation and resilience ................................................... 37 2.1 Definitions ................................................................................................................................... 38 2.2 Relationships between awareness, preparedness and resilience ............................................... 38 2.3 Awareness .................................................................................................................................. 38 2.4 Community preparedness ........................................................................................................... 41 2.5 Resilience ................................................................................................................................... 42 2.6 Flood insurance .......................................................................................................................... 45 2.7 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................ 46 2.8 Summary of recommendations in this Section ............................................................................ 47 Section 3 Causes of the floods ..................................................................................................... 48 3.1 The weather and rainfall ............................................................................................................. 49 3.2 Effect of cloud seeding ............................................................................................................... 52 3.3 Statewide water storage management
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