R E B O 0 T 2 C 0 2 O Greater Nottingham & Ashfield Housing Needs Assessment Final Report Iceni Projects Limited on behalf of the Greater Nottingham Planning I PROJECTS LIMITED Partnership PLANNING PLANNING PARTNERSHIP ICEN ON GREATER BEHALF OF NOTTINGHAM THE October 2020 Iceni Projects London: Da Vinci House, 44 Saffron Hill, London, EC1N 8FH Glasgow: 177 West George Street, Glasgow, G2 2LB Manchester: 68 Quay Street, Manchester, M3 3EJ Edinburgh: 11 Alva Street, Edinburgh, EH2 4PH t: 020 3640 8508 | w: iceniprojects.com | e: [email protected] Greater Nottingham & Ashfield & Nottingham Greater FINAL REPORT HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT linkedin: linkedin.com/company/iceni-projects | twitter: @iceniprojects 2 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 13 THE PLANNING POLICY CONTEXT ....................................................................... 15 DEMOGRAPHIC BASELINE AND THE HOUSING MARKET .................................. 17 IDENTIFYING SUBMARKETS .................................................................................. 34 AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED ............................................................................. 57 OLDER PERSONS HOUSING NEEDS & HOUSING PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES . ................................................................................................................................. 100 STUDENT HOUSING NEEDS ................................................................................ 128 THE APPROPRIATE MIX OF HOUSING ............................................................... 142 THE PRIVATE RENTED SECTOR AND BUILD TO RENT .................................... 166 CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................... 183 APPENDICES ......................................................................................................... 195 APPENDICES A1. IDENTIFIED SUBMARKETS IN GREATER NOTTINGHAM AND ASHFIELD A2. PROJECTED CHANGES TO OLDER POPULATION WITH A RANGE OF DISABILITIES BY LPA (POPULATION AGED 65+) A3. PROJECTED CHANGES TO YOUNGER ADULT POPULATION WITH A RANGE OF DISABILITIES BY LPA (POPULATION AGED UNDER 65) A4. PROJECTED CHANGES IN HOUSEHOLD OF HRP BY AGE BY LPA 0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Greater Nottingham Planning Partnership (“GNPP”) comprising Broxtowe Borough Council, Erewash Borough Council, Gedling Borough Council, Nottingham City Council and Rushcliffe Borough Council; as well as Ashfield District Council, have commissioned Iceni Projects (“Iceni”) to prepare a Housing Needs Assessment. The Housing Needs Assessment has been prepared for the Greater Nottingham and Ashfield area in order to support the preparation of Local Plans looking ahead to 2037 in Ashfield and to 2038 in all other authority areas; and to provide evidence to support housing market interventions and prospective future funding bids. Local Housing Need This report has not created a new or for purpose data set; however, we have drawn on local housing need established by the standard methodology. Projections have been developed to inform the analysis within the report which are linked to the current local housing need figures for each authority area calculated using the standard methodology as set out by Government. The calculation of the local housing need for each authority in the study area is set out in the Table below. In all cases, the minimum local housing need figure is equal to the need identified under Step 2 which takes account of household growth using the 2014-based Household Projections over the period 2020 to 2030 and an affordability adjustment using the 2019 median workplace-based affordability ratio. Table 1: Calculating Local Housing Need in Greater Nottingham and Ashfield Nottingh 1: Household Growth Ashfield Broxtowe Gedling Erewash Rushcliffe am 2014-based Household 434 314 401 345 1,086 451 Growth (p.a.) 2020-2030 2: Affordability Median Workplace-Based 5.74 6.77 6.25 6.19 4.93 9.45 Affordability Ratio, 2019 Adjustment Factor 11% 17% 14% 14% 6% 34% Minimum LHN 481 368 458 392 1,149 604 1 Identification of Submarkets Across the study area, the report has recognised that the profile of each local authority and indeed the neighbourhoods within each authority will vary with regards to particular characteristics including demographics, the profile of housing stock and house price dynamics. The identification of submarkets is therefore an important component when analysing affordable housing needs and in advising on the appropriate housing mix. The assessment has defined submarkets using 2019 ward boundaries with the exception of Cotgrave Village Centre in Rushcliffe which has been built up with LSOAs to reflect the substantial variance in likely development viability. There are potentially further variances at a sub-ward level which this study has sought to address in the supporting text; however, in some instances, this is not possible due to the scale of particular villages which may contrast with the rest of the ward or due to the planned development or regeneration of particular areas which may warrant a separate submarket being established in due course. On this basis, the submarkets in this study should be viewed at a point in time and will invariably be subject to change The assessment works through a range of analysis with a focus on viability, drilling down at a ward level to review the profile of property transactions and house prices by type of property to identify relationships and substitutability, wherever possible. This analysis has been set alongside other factors such as self-containment and urban morphology when defining submarkets. Drawing the analysis together, Iceni consider that the evidence points to a total of 57 submarkets across the study area. A map of the submarkets is set out in Section 4 of this report. Affordable Housing This report includes an assessment of affordable housing need which responds to the widened definition of affordable housing set out in the 2019 Framework. This includes households who might be able to rent a home in the private sector without financial support but aspire to own a home and require support to do so. The assessment shows a need for 2,615 rented affordable homes per annum across the study area. A breakdown is provided below by local authority and a further detailed breakdown is provided by submarket in Section 5 of the report. Table 2: Rented Affordable Housing Net Need by Local Authority, 2020-38 Nottingha Ashfield Broxtowe Erewash Gedling Rushcliffe m Net Need for Rented 237 309 271 392 1,112 294 Affordable (p.a.) 2 The report has also assessed the potential scale of need for affordable home ownership, identifying that there is not a particular need for affordable home ownership homes across the study area. When looking at the need for affordable home ownership products it is clear that there are a number of households likely to be able to afford to rent privately but who cannot afford to buy a suitable home because of the initial outlay/deposit/securing a mortgage. However, there is also a potential supply of homes within the existing stock that can make a contribution to this need, with a reasonable proportion of properties available at lower quartile prices. It is therefore difficult to robustly identify an overall need for affordable home ownership products. The exception to this is in Rushcliffe where there is a particularly large ‘gap’ between the cost of buying and renting; however, this area does also have a significant need for social/affordable rented housing. Table 3: Affordable Home Ownership Need/Surplus by Local Authority, 2020-38 Nottingha Ashfield Broxtowe Erewash Gedling Rushcliffe m Net Need/Surplus for Affordable Home -195 -39 -123 -92 -473 96 Ownership (p.a.) In bringing together evidence through the new Local Plans, the Councils need to consider the evidence of need, the relative acuteness of the need, issues of residential development viability and other actions which can be taken to support affordable housing delivery. It is suggested that social rents will be affordable to a greater proportion of households than affordable rents, although some households claiming benefits will be able to access an affordable rent as long as the rent is fully covered by Housing Benefit. As a general rule it is not considered sensible to be charging a rent in excess of Local Housing Allowance (“LHA”) rates, as this would mean many households having to top up their rent from other income sources. The local authorities could therefore consider that the affordable level for social rents is equal to the maximum LHA level for the relevant area and property size. As a result, low income working households are likely to benefit most from a social rent. However, rents will have to be set in the context of viability. The data indicates that there are many households across Greater Nottingham and Ashfield who are being excluded from the owner-occupied sector. The analysis would therefore suggest that a key issue in the study area is about access to capital (e.g. for deposits, stamp duty, legal costs) as well as potentially mortgage restrictions (e.g. where employment is temporary) rather than simply the purchase price of mortgage repayments. 3 If the Councils do seek to provide housing as affordable home ownership (noting that the Framework