spotlight europe # 2009/09 – September 2009 Ireland's Second Attempt

Dominik Hierlemann Bertelsmann Stiftung, [email protected]

Irish voters are about to go to the polls for a second time to decide the fate of the . On 2 October the outcome of the referendum will determine whether or not the EU, after eight years of debate and numer- ous false starts, can finally adopt a new basic treaty. What are the chances of success? Here are a brief look at the ratification process, the mood in Ireland, and the consequences of the economic crisis–and five scenarios of what might happen if there is another No vote.

I of Lisbon and the legislative amendments introduced during the summer months, may soon pick up his pen and sign on the Ratification Overview dotted line. Similarly, his Polish counter- The Treaty of Lisbon can enter into force part Lech Kaczynski, despite his funda- only after it has been ratified by all of the mentally euro-sceptical stance, will also # 2009/09 27 EU member states. In the meantime 23 sign the reform treaty if the other 26 EU countries have given it their assent. In states are all on board. Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic both houses of parliament have voted in However, the situation in the Czech Re- favour of acceptance. In order to complete public is rather different. Czech President the procedural formalities, the heads of Václav Klaus seizes every possible oppor- state merely have to append their signa- tunity to castigate the EU and avails him- tures to the ratification documents. How- self of legal ruses to prevent further deep- ever, this still leaves us with Ireland. ening of any kind. Although in May the Czech Senate followed the example of the In the case of Germany, President Horst house of deputies and finally gave its as- Köhler, in the wake of the ruling by the sent to ratification, self-appointed “EU dis-

spotlight europe German Constitutional Court on the Treaty sident” Klaus sees no reason why he needs

to be in a hurry. Support for his tactical For this reason the Irish government, in procrastination comes from some members the wake of the first abortive referendum, of his ODS party, who are planning to file entered into negotiations and secured a a second constitutional appeal against the series of legal guarantees. At the EU Treaty of Lisbon. However, it is difficult to summit on 18-19 June 2009 Prime Minis- imagine that at a second hearing the ter Brian Cowen came up with a declara- judges of the Constitutional Court in Brno tion which was designed to deal with the would reach a decision which differs from Irish electorate’s principal reservations. their ruling in November 2008, when they declared that certain controversial clauses in the treaty were consonant with the Czech Constitution.

All the same, if the Czech president man- ages to delay the ratification process until the British General Election in May or June 2010, the treaty could still end up on the scrapheap. David Cameron, the leader of the euro-sceptic Conservatives, has already announced that if they win the election (which seems probable), he will rescind British approval and have a referendum on the subject. That would be Page 2 tantamount to a death blow for the reform treaty.

Yet for the moment the ball is back in the Irish court. If in the forthcoming referen- dum the Irish electorate gives its assent to the Treaty of Lisbon, then the chances that the new primary law will enter into force will be very good indeed.

Ireland’s Second Attempt Attempt Second Ireland’s II

Rejection and Negotiation In the referendum on 12 June 2008 Irish voters either rejected the Treaty of Lisbon

# 2009/09 or abstained because they did not know enough about what it actually meant and felt they had not been properly informed. The most important reasons why people voted No were widespread fears concern- ing the loss of workers’ rights, the sur- reptitious militarization of Ireland, and The European Council made it clear that what seemed to be apparent threats to the Ireland’s strict abortion laws would not be restrictive Irish abortion laws. Nor were affected by the Treaty of Lisbon if and the Irish very happy about the envisaged when it entered into force, nor would its reduction in the size of the Commission. right to levy taxes and its traditional pol- Ireland simply insisted on having its own icy of military neutrality. Furthermore, in EU Commissioner. future every member state would still be spotlight europe

able to nominate its own EU Commis- the year it was forced to provide support sioner. for the two largest banks in the country (Bank of Ireland, Allied Irish Banks) in the In addition the European Council adopted shape of a financial injection in the dou- a “Solemn Declaration on Workers’ Rights, ble-digit billion range and to nationalize Social Policy and other issues” which, the Anglo Irish Bank. In April 2009 plans without express reference to Ireland, em- for the establishment of a state-owned phasized the great importance that the EU “Bad Bank” were announced in Dublin. Its attaches to social questions. controversial structure is currently one of the biggest political bones of contention in By means of a legal trick the ratification Ireland. The opposition parties have an- procedure in the other member states will nounced that they intend to resist the not have to go back to square one. The de- measure during the legislative proceed- cision of the heads of state and govern- ings which are now getting under way. ment is legally binding and comes into ef- fect the day the Treaty of Lisbon enters The dramatic budgetary situation is caus- into force. And in order to ensure that the ing some concern, since it makes it impos- guarantees have full Treaty status, they sible to implement a state-funded eco- will be attached as a protocol to the Treaty nomic stimulus package for the domestic of Lisbon after the ratification of the next economy. There is growing pressure on accession treaty (presumably with Croatia the government, after it has spent billions in 2010 or 2011). on measures designed to prop up the banks, to stop state finances from getting Page 3 III out of hand. The government of Prime Min- ister Brian Cowen has established two commissions of experts, and these have Economic Crisis suggested comprehensive spending cuts. In the economic and financial crisis the 7,000 jobs in the public sectors are to be erstwhile “Celtic tiger” is suffering from a axed; there are to be cuts in the educa- bout of the blues. In the final analysis the tional, health and social sectors; and there factors which were behind the Irish eco- will be new taxes and levies on property, nomic boom are the ones which have re- water and child allowances.

Ireland’s Second Attempt Attempt Second Ireland’s

vealed their downside in the crisis and are helping to accelerate the decline. They in- Large parts of the electorate were outraged clude close ties with the crisis-ridden US by these proposals. The fact that the gov- economy, the high level of dependence on ernment initiated the debate about its con- foreign direct investment, the strain troversial cost-cutting and taxation plans placed on an export-based economy by the shortly before the referendum completely euro exchange rate, and the bursting defies all political logic. The result could be a protest vote against the unpopular

# 2009/09 property bubble with its ramifications for the financial and construction sectors. 94 ruling coalition of the conservative Fianna percent of the Irish believe that the Fáil party and the Greens. According to re- economic situation of their country is bad cent surveys 75 percent of the Irish elec- and no more than 17 percent think that torate are in favour of a change of gov- the domestic economy will pick up mo- ernment and early elections to the lower mentum in the year ahead. house, which are actually due to take place only in 2012. In opinion polls the govern- The Irish banks in particular continue to ing coalition manages to get only a hu- be affected by what is going on. In Sep- miliating 20 percent approval rating. tember 2008 the government announced a total guarantee of bank deposits amount- On the other hand the economic and finan- ing to €400 billion, and at the beginning of cial crisis might actually help to persuade spotlight europe

the Irish electorate to give its assent to the ing fruit. 60% of the voters and thus a ma- Treaty of Lisbon. Now more than ever the jority of the Irish electorate now state that islanders believe that the EU is a safe ha- they understand what the Treaty of Lisbon ven which offers a place of refuge from the is all about. tempestuous blasts of the global economy. 44 percent of the Irish are convinced that In addition to the large governing and op- the euro has taken the edge off the nega- position parties the most important figures tive effects of the current crisis. Only 30 in the Yes camp are numerous new civil percent believe that Ireland would have society and business community actors. been better off with the Irish pound or The supporters of the treaty now have far punt Éireannach. more clout and are better prepared to reach out to target groups than they were In the midst of the crisis Ireland continues back in 2008. The new actors include to be one of the member states whose citi- Ireland for Europe, which is led by Pat zens have the most positive attitude to- Cox, the former President of the European wards European integration. On the basis Parliament and President of the European of the data provided by the most recent Movement, who has attracted the support Eurobarometer, 69 percent of the Irish–in of celebrities from show business, sport contrast to the EU average of 53 percent– and the business world. We Belong and believe that their country’s membership of Generation Yes are trying to appeal in par- the EU is “a good thing.” As many as 79 ticular to young voters who mainly voted percent are convinced that Ireland benefits No at the previous referendum. from its membership of the EU. Page 4 Two pro-Lisbon campaigns from the busi- However, the previous referendums have ness community are of some interest. Mi- shown that positive approval ratings do chael O’Leary, the head of , is on not necessarily lead to a corresponding re- record as saying that he does not want to sult at the ballot box. It seems that in Ire- have to rely on “incompetent” politicians. land the EU has a large number of “soft The support given by Intel is especially supporters.” They are, it is true, basically symbolic, for in May 2009 the EU Com- pro-European, but do not vote unless they mission imposed a record fine of €1.06 bil- are encouraged to do so, and may even lion on the company on account of its cast a No vote. abuse of its market power and distortion of Ireland’s Second Attempt Attempt Second Ireland’s competition. IV The No camp comprises a very diverse mixture of groups from the right and left Campaign rims of the political spectrum. However, Since the beginning of the year the polls on this occasion the No campaign lacks a face, a voice and indeed the requisite

# 2009/09 have shown repeatedly that the supporters of the treaty are in the majority. In the funding. This is above all due to the fact middle of September nearly two-thirds of that the anti-Lisbon movement Libertas the Irish said that they would be voting has for the time being withdrawn from the Yes in the referendum. A crucial differ- fray in the wake of its dismal performance ence to the previous poll could be that the at the European elections. In the meantime number of undecided voters is at about 20 its leader, Declan Ganley, has made a percent, which is fairly low, and that the comeback, but the mobilizing effect has mobilization of treaty supporters seems to remained small. be proceeding more smoothly. Further- more, the current polls seem to suggest The No camp has received staunch support that the informational campaign being from the euro-sceptics of the British UK mounted by the Yes camp is at last bear- Independence Party, which as a result of spotlight europe

its success at the European elections now Whereas the Yes camp has come up with has 13 MEPs in the . slogans that are not particularly original The UKIP has sent 1.5 million brochures such as “Ireland needs Europe” (Fianna entitled “The Truth about the Treaty of Fáil) or “Yes to Recovery, Yes to Europe” Lisbon” to Irish households in which it (Fine Gael), the opponents of Lisbon have claims, for example, that the Treaty would once again plumped for a fear-ridden cam- lead to a mass influx of immigrants from paign based on distorted facts and un- Turkey. Yet the involvement of the UKIP is truths. Their posters and their pithy and actually to the benefit of the Yes camp, emotionally charged messages are in- which promptly denounced its campaign tended to exacerbate Irish fears about a as being anti-Irish. Do Irishmen and Irish- loss of freedom, influence and money. Yet women really want to be told what to do, the thrust of the debate has changed. In especially by their British neighbours? the light of the guarantees secured by the government the warnings about a Europe- Perhaps the most noticeable player in the wide harmonization of taxes, a liberaliza- No camp is the conservative Roman Catho- tion of abortion laws and a militarization lic organization Cóir, which has attracted a of Ireland no longer seem as terrifying as great deal of attention on account of its they did a year ago. For this reason the provocative poster campaign. Its principal opponents of Lisbon have homed in on a new topic, the supposed undermin- ing of workers’ rights by the EU’s neo-liberal economic policies.

Page 5 Yet this time round the Yes camp is much better equipped to fight these lies and distortions of the truth. The supporters of Lisbon have learned from their luckless campaign a year ago that half-truths can only be countered with a campaign which systematically sets out the facts. Leading politicians, journalists and internet fact checks have displayed Ireland’s Second Attempt Attempt Second Ireland’s remarkable resolve in demonstrat- ing that the arguments of the oppo- nents of the treaty are untenable and incorrect. But in addition to the professionalization of its public rela- tions work, the Yes campaign has changed from relying on the media # 2009/09 (“air war”) and is now a street cam- paign with house-to-house canvass- ing (“ground war”).

However, there continues to be one drawback, and that is the fact that topics are ethical questions such as abor- the supporters of the treaty still find it dif- tion, euthanasia and stem cell research. ficult to say why anyone should actually The opponents of the treaty also include give his or her assent to its complex pro- Sinn Féin, the Socialist Party and “Cam- visions. The arguments are still centred on paign against the EU Constitution,” an the notional costs of a No vote–which in- umbrella organization of 15 left-wing clude the isolation of Ireland in the EU,

spotlight europe groups.

the exodus of foreign direct investments, Second, the EU member states decide to the exacerbation of the economic crisis, have a new treaty. The Treaty of Lisbon is etc.–instead of asking for a heartfelt Yes. taken to pieces and completely renegoti- ated. The basis for such a procedure would V be general agreement that the EU 27 is no longer governable with the Treaty of Nice. However, even if the heads of state and A No vote after all? government were to come jointly to this Five scenarios conclusion, there would in practice be a host of virtually insurmountable obstacles. Everything seems to be going swimmingly. So it is hardly surprising that Brussels has EU states such as Italy or Belgium, for ex- once again been overwhelmed by its abil- ample, which agreed very reluctantly to ity to repress unwelcome facts. Yet what the emasculation of the original constitu- in fact will happen if the Irish reject the tional treaty would probably object vehe- Treaty of Lisbon a second time? It is possi- mently against any further deceleration in ble to imagine five scenarios, though they the integration process. On the other hand, are not all equally probable. on account of changes in the domestic and general European political landscape, the First, the referendum will be repeated yet Czech Republic and above all the United again. In this scenario the Treaty of Lis- Kingdom might even use such treaty nego- bon, much to the chagrin of all concerned, tiations to bring about a total reversal of would be put to one side, and then, in two European integration policy. From now on Page 6 or three years’ time, would be presented the idea might be to work for less integra- once again to the Irish electorate. The tion, and not for more. The risk that the other EU member states would emphasize EU, as a result of such discussions, might that nothing had changed with regard to be drawn deeper and deeper into a crisis- the need for a new basic treaty. In fact, it ridden maelstrom is greater than if it did was needed more than ever, and for this nothing at all. reason the Irish would be asked to approve its adoption in 2011 or 2012. What ini- Third, Ireland leaves the EU. Numerous tially might seem either fanciful or totally European politicians, at least in a discreet absurd could in practice be presented by kind of way, emphasized that this scenario Ireland’s Second Attempt Attempt Second Ireland’s the supporters of such an option as a last- was a distinct possibility after the Irish No ditch opportunity to move ahead with in- vote in the first referendum. Anyone who tegration. objects twice to an important European document that points the way ahead, so However, game plans of this kind should the reasoning goes, cannot continue to be be nipped in the bud at the earliest possi- a member of the . ble opportunity. The basic point, which is # 2009/09 made not only by EU sceptics, is that one Even if the current treaty regulations do cannot let the electorate keep on voting not explicitly provide for a member state until one gets the result one wants to to leave the EU, Ireland can take this step have. In the final analysis what is at issue at any time. In the final analysis the Union is nothing less than the democratic credi- is based on international treaties which bility of the European Union. So if the can be revoked at any time. But could Ire- Irish were in fact to reject the Treaty of land be forced to leave the EU so that the Lisbon a second time round, the heads of other states can continue with the ratifica- state and government should definitely tion process? No, it could not. This would exclude a third referendum. be possible neither from a European nor from an international law point of view. And in political terms it would deal a spotlight europe

death blow to the European spirit. How higher level. This applies especially to could policymakers tell EU citizens that German policymakers, whose hands are they were serious about wanting to make tied as a result of the Lisbon ruling of the the EU more democratic with the help of German Constitutional Court. Further- the Treaty of Lisbon if they decided to ig- more, the political staff which might strive nore the way a whole nation voted and in for such integration in a decisive and reso- the final analysis were willing to punish lute manner simply does not exist. And, the country concerned? Page 7 Ireland’s Second Attempt Attempt Second Ireland’s

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Fourth, the creation of a new suprana- last but not least, this step in particular tional Union. The heads of state and gov- would alienate EU citizens even more from ernment of the most integration-friendly the European project. In economically dif- # 2009/09 countries in the EU could use an Irish No ficult times Europeans do not have a lot of vote as the cue to create a new institu- time for quarrelling and petty discussions tional structure outside of the EU frame- about a treaty. work. By building on the contents of the Treaty of Lisbon, they would implement Fifth, the Treaty of Nice remains in force their ideas of increasingly close coopera- and a few small changes are introduced. tion between European states. Contrary to the official rhetoric surround- ing the treaty, in recent months some So much for the theory. In practice there is slight doubts have in fact been voiced in at the moment hardly a single national Brussels. The changes envisaged by the government in Europe which has the Treaty of Lisbon signify progress as far as strength to throw national competences the European elite is concerned, though in spotlight europe overboard in order to assign them to a many respects the actual consequences

are neither predictable nor have they been ers in Brussels could show by means of in- properly scrutinized. In the final analysis ter-institutional agreements between vari- no one knows, for example, how the newly ous EU bodies and simple changes in the created offices or the incumbents will get rules of procedure that they actually mean on with one another. Yes, it would be per- what they say when they hold out the fectly possible to soldier on with the promise of more democracy in the EU. Treaty of Nice. In this scenario, which is currently the In fact the legislative machinery in Brus- most probable option, the EU would be- sels would continue to function on the ba- come even more differentiated internally. sis of the Treaty of Nice. Even changes in The countries which wish to work together the institutional structure would be a pos- more closely in certain policy areas would sibility, though they would be onerous to be able to do so on the lines of “enhanced implement. Thus it would be possible to cooperation,” which has often been propa- establish both the office of a European gated but never tried out in practice. How- Minister for Foreign Affairs and the Euro- ever, it is also clear that all this would pean External Action Service. No new trea- spell the end of the political élan and the ties are required for this purpose, merely desire to create something new on the the requisite political will. If Europe’s poli- European level and to increase EU influ- ticians are really serious about embarking ence throughout the world. And in fact on more democracy, then they could also this would be difficult to revive for many create a European right of initiative with- years to come. out waiting to include such provisions in a Page 8 treaty. Thus in practical terms policymak-

Ireland’s Second Attempt Attempt Second Ireland’s

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