could hardly have stepped in and publicly stopped the focusing on trade with its former archenemies, under Gaza flotilla activists. Still, the Turkish government’s the aegis of its Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu. It role leading up to the mission seems fairly dubious is no coincidence that when Erdogan and President and it remains unclear to what extent the JDP govern- Abdullah Gül travel to the Persian Gulf states, Syria ment may have encouraged escalation on the part of and , they are accompanied by businesspeople radicals among the ‘aid activists.’ rather than preachers or religious scholars.

The current chill between and Ankara also Previous governments also imagined expanding comes with a complicated history. Erdogan has not Turkey’s sphere of influence into Central Asia and the forgotten that Israeli soldiers marched into the Gaza Arab world, in something of a ‘neo-Ottoman’ foreign Strip in the winter of 2008-2009, at the same time as policy. The key difference between then and now is Turkey was attempting to moderate peace talks be- that the country did not have a realistic chance of be- tween and Syria. The Turkish prime minister, coming a superpower in the region until after 2002. who would have distinguished himself in the eyes of Since then, Turkey has been only too glad to fill the the West too, had he produced an Israeli-Syrian peace power vacuum created by the Iraq War and the US’s agreement, felt personally deceived by then Israeli dwindling ability to shape the . In the same Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Since then, Erdogan has spirit, Ankara no longer seems particularly impressed not lost an opportunity to denounce Israel. Turkey’s by rejection from the EU, nor is the country lacking in cancellation of Israeli involvement in an international self-confidence. When in doubt, taking a stand on the military exercise, the airing of a television series Israel world stage against the US together with Brazil and considered anti-Semitic on Turkish public broadcaster Iran appears to be a more attractive option than being TRT and the public humiliation of Turkey’s ambas- strung along as an EU candidate country. For this rea- sador in Tel Aviv by Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister son, US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates believes Danny Ayalon are the latest milestones in a series of that the bears a considerable portion crises. of blame if the West has indeed lost Turkey.

The raid on the Mavi Marmara overshadows all previ- But is Turkey really lost? It is also possible that, after ous diplomatic incidents. It provoked a wave of out- feeling understandable anger over nine dead aid ac- rage in Turkey, but this should not disguise the fact tivists, an awareness might prevail in Turkey that it that the anger springs essentially from nationalist rath- makes sense for the country not to completely sac- er than Islamist sources. This highlights an important rifice the political capital of maintaining relations with difference, since in Turkey, unlike in the Arab world, both the Arab world and Israel. If the bloody drama Islamism has always been overshadowed by nation- aboard the Mavi Marmara truly has increased Turkey’s alism. Turkey’s national identity has generally been prestige among Palestinians, Turkey could use that in- stronger than its religious identity. fluence, for example, to wrest from the conces- sions Israel demands: a recognition of Israel’s right to The fact that Turkey is turning towards Iran and the exist and an end to rocket attacks. Israel, meanwhile, Arab states at the same time that it is turning away should recognise the damage it has done to its sole from Israel is worthy of attention, but Islamism is not the Muslim ally (or former ally) and take pains to make decisive factor here either. Far more, this new interest amends, instead of branding Turkey as a new Islamist in the Middle East indicates a recognition on Turkey’s enemy. Israel should also realise that a normalisation part that it has neglected its political and economic in- of Turkish-Israeli relations will not be possible right terests in the region for decades. Turkey, an aspiring now without the international probe into the Gaza flo- regional power on the look-out for new markets, is now tilla incident that Turkey is rightly demanding.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the EUISS

2 European Union Institute for Security Studies