Election 2008 Making History Democrats pump up their control of state legislatures, but Republicans also make gains.

By Tim Storey and Edward Smith ber of politically divided legislatures since Democrats took control of four legisla- 1982. Only eight states had split legislative tures—Delaware, Nevada, New York and he electoral tsunami that swept Senator control—Alaska, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Wisconsin. Those gains helped the Northeast into the White House Michigan, Montana, Pennsylvania and Vir- take on a deeper shade of blue, with every and delivered Democrats to Congress ginia. Partisan control of legislatures shifted chamber north of Virginia in Democratic also helped the party make historic in a dozen states. hands except for the lone splash of Repub- stridesT at the state legislative level. Democrats won some big prizes, but lican red—the Pennsylvania Senate. Based Voters reversed a trend in recent elec- Republicans held their own, scoring historic on preliminary, unofficial results, Democrats tions and left states with the fewest num- victories in the South. In large measure, the now control both chambers in 27 states. results signaled a solidifying of regional “Democrats were successful all up and Tim Storey is NCSL’s elections expert. Edward Smith is the power and a decline in partisan parity across down the ticket,” says Matt Compton, com- managing editor of State Legislatures. the nation. munications director of the Democratic Leg-

14 state legislatures DECEMBER 2008 State legislatures Post-Election 2008

Republican-14 Democrat-27 Divided-8 Nonpartisan-1

Governor’s Party Post-Election 2008

Republican-21 Democrat-29

State Government Post-Election 2008

Republican-8 Democrat-17 Divided-24 Nonpartisan-1 islative Campaign Committee. “There’s been a fairly close division between the parties at the state level, but the Democrats have been steadily picking up numbers since 2003.” For Republicans, it was a sweet song in the South. The GOP took over legislatures in Tennessee and Oklahoma for the first time. And the party gained seats in the region despite a net loss nationwide of approxi- mately 100 seats. Republicans now control both chambers in 14 states, reflecting no net loss. Eight states are divided, with the Mon- Based on unofficial results pending recounts.

DECEMBER 2008 state legislatures 15 tana House tied 50-50. Nebraska has a uni- paign is it did not just focus on get-out-the- cameral, nonpartisan Legislature. vote efforts in Democratic areas. The cam- Carrie Cantrell, spokeswoman for the paign really put an effort into going to the Republican State Leadership Committee, Republican areas. Obama looked everywhere called the outcome “strong victories” for the for votes.” GOP. In New York, Delaware and Wiscon- “The Democrats made huge plays in the sin, all of which went for Senator John Dakotas for Republican seats and were Kerry in 2004, the Obama coattails helped unsuccessful there, just like they were in down-ticket races. Delaware voters went 61 Tennessee,” she says. percent for Obama—and favorite son Joe The winners face opportunities and sober- Biden—and Wisconsin voters gave the Illi- ing reality. On the up side, parties that have nois senator 56 percent. New York’s 62-37 taken control of both chambers will have the percent split for Obama likely helped Dem- upper hand heading into the critical redistrict- ocrats in their successful bid for control of ing cycle following the 2010 census. On the the Senate. down side, nearly every state is facing deep Compton sees the situation somewhat fiscal problems that will persist through FY reversed, believing Obama was successful 2009 and, many economists think, dog states in part because Democratic state lawmakers into 2010. helped pave the way. “His campaign cer- From the perspective of state lawmakers, tainly helped with enthusiasm, but voters are though, the Obama victory does offer some- becoming more aware of what happens at the thing they have not seen since Jimmy Carter legislative level and they like what they see was in the White House. from Democratic leadership.” “You will have a president who has spent Democrats gained a seat in the Alaska time in a state legislature and knows and Senate, leaving that chamber tied 10-10. The understands the views of legislatures,” says party also held onto the Indiana House, main- Charlie Cook, publisher of the Cook Political taining a 52-48 margin, and the Pennsylvania Report and a longtime political analyst. House where some observers thought Demo- crats were endangered. WINS AND LOSSES The Senate win in New York is a historic Democrats took over five chambers: the change. Democrats now have control of both New York Senate, Delaware House, Wiscon- legislative chambers and the governor’s man- sin Assembly, Ohio House and Nevada Sen- sion for the first time since 1935, when Her- ate. All of those were in GOP hands for well bert H. Lehman was governor of the Empire over a decade. State. He was, ironically, one of the founders Overall, the trend in the Northeast is not Obama’s coattails appeared significant in of the now bankrupt Lehman Brothers invest- surprising, Ornstein says. the victories. Although the total number of ment bank. “New England is basically completing its legislative seats gained by Democrats was “It’s very historic. It’s the longest exam- march to the blue,” he says, and with that not huge, he helped the party take control of ple of a divided partisan legislature in the comes a purging of even the most moderate chambers long held by Republicans in some country,” says Gerald Benjamin, a political of Republicans. He pointed particularly to the big population states. Obama’s vaunted science professor at the State University of loss by U.S. Representative Christopher Shays field operation surely helped Democrats win New York, New Paltz, and an avid student of in Connecticut’s fourth district. It will be the legislative chambers in two states Bush won the New York Legislature. The change came first time since the GOP was founded in 1854 in 2004: Ohio, where he took 52 percent of largely because “the demographic wave is that New England will be without a Republi- the vote, and in Nevada, where Obama took overwhelming and it’s been held back by art- can in the U.S. House of Representatives. 55 percent of the vote. And it’s not surpris- ful gerrymandering for decades.” New England also scored one other his- ing. The party that won the White House has As it did at the national level, the tank- toric first on Election Night: New Hampshire picked up legislative seats in 20 of the past ing of Wall Street probably played a role in voters gave women the majority in the Sen- 28 elections since 1900, including this year. GOP losses in New York. But he added that ate. It is the first time a legislative chamber “Obama’s money for a ground game in the state’s deep fiscal problems—including has had more women than men. places where you might not otherwise go a more than $12 billion shortfall this fiscal offered a lot of inadvertent help” to down- year—means that will be the dominant issue. REPUBLICAN GAINS ticket candidates, says Norman Ornstein, a “The first thing is to manage the financial The GOP’s gains in the South were simi- political scientist and resident scholar at the crisis,” Benjamin says. “The social issues larly historic. The flip of the Tennessee American Enterprise Institute. “One of the that might find great support in a Democratic House from Democratic to Republican con- things that characterized the Obama cam- Senate will not be the focus.” trol was the biggest surprise of the election

16 state legislatures DECEMBER 2008 THE WESTERN VIEW not liking either Palin or the recklessness of The parties both enjoyed success in the McCain, and all seeing a landslide and their West. Democrats took over the Nevada Sen- vote not making a difference,” Gans says. ate by gaining two seats in the Las Vegas However, turnout expert Michael McDon- area. They also gained one seat in the House, ald at George Mason University expects the giving them a two-thirds super-majority. number could go to 133.3 million, large but The state is facing a nearly $1 billion bud- still smaller in percentage terms than the get shortfall and is “ground zero for foreclo- turnout in 1960 and 1964. sures,” according to Erik Herzik, chair of the But predictions of a strong youth vote did political science department at the University pan out and that was good news for Demo- of Nevada, Reno. crats. Preliminary estimates from the Center It leaves the state in a very tough fiscal for Information & Research on Civic Learn- spot, but Governor Jim Gibbons “has said ing and Engagement at Tufts University are absolutely no new taxes and will not change that 22 million to 24 million Americans aged from that position. It would be political sui- 18 to 29 voted, up more than 2 million from cide to even modify his stance,” Herzik says. 2004. And they favored Obama over Senator For the GOP, Montana was a bright spot in John McCain 66 percent to 32 percent. the Rockies. Republicans wrested back con- Charlie Cook thinks the modest gains for trol of the Senate, which they lost in 2004. Democrats at the state and congressional level The Montana Legislature is historically the were a little surprising. “You didn’t see the most competitive in the country, having impressive, big Democratic gains as expected. changed hands repeatedly over the past 75 Maybe voters pulled the Obama lever and years. then didn’t bother with the rest of the ballot.” A three-seat gain in the Senate shifted con- Democrats emerged with gains at the state trol to the Republicans. Scott Ward, president level that were perhaps limited because of a of the Republican State Leadership Commit- historic shift that occurred in the 2006 elec- tee, said the victories in the South and Mon- tion after a 12-year run of control by the tana represented success in a tough environ- Republicans. And those gains, combined with ment for Republicans. this year’s, may set them up for a fall in the “The RSLC continues to demonstrate suc- mid-term elections of 2010 when the party in cess in promoting strong, common-sense power usually gets its comeuppance at both leaders to down-ticket offices even in difficult the state and national level. Since 1940, the political environments,” Ward says. “While party controlling the White House has lost we would like to have had even more victo- seats in legislatures in every mid-term elec- at the state level. By breaking a tie in the ries, there is a silver lining in the results and tion except for the post 9/11 election in 2002, Senate, Republicans gained control of both we will continue to build on these efforts in when Republicans picked up seats. chambers for the first time ever. the coming year.” This time around, however, Ornstein says “Certainly there were some McCain coat- The Texas House remains in the GOP history may not repeat itself. tails, but we really believe that the win in column with a 76-74 margin, but a tight race “It’s a tricky path for Republicans over Tennessee is because we had strong candi- there is headed for a recount that could leave the next two years,” he says. dates who concentrated on local issues,” says the chamber tied. “They could use the approach of ‘92-’93 in Cantrell. Bill Clinton’s first two years in office when Democrat Representative Mark Maddox, WHAT’S NEXT they said, in effect, ‘You’ve got the reins, the majority whip in the Tennessee House, Although overall turnout was expected you’re on your own, screw up and we’ll pick said the outcome was not what Democrats to be one of the key storylines of the 2008 up the pieces.’ But I’m not sure that works expected. election, indications are voters did not set as well now. “There are surprises in every election but a record. Preliminary estimates range from “Mainly because I think Democrats won’t we didn’t expect this big of a surprise,” he 126.5 million to 133.3 million people. be as arrogant as they’ve been in the past and says. “Our tracking polls and even the GOP’s “Turnout will be in the range of just about I don’t think the country will be as receptive. polls didn’t show this kind of change. Sena- or a little under 2004 to one percentage point I think they’ll have to cooperate some in the tor McCain’s coattails were stronger and lon- over,” says Curtis Gans, director of the Com- governance of the country.” ger than we anticipated.” mittee for the Study of the American Elector- Similarly, by breaking a tie to take over the ate. That would mean 126.5 million to 128.5 CHECK OUT our interactive map for all Oklahoma Senate 26-22, the GOP gained con- million people voted. theE changes in legislative chambers across the trol of both chambers there for the first time “The primary culprit was GOP dropoff— country following the Nov. 4 election at www. ncsl.org/magazine. since the Sooner State joined the Union. conservatives not liking McCain, moderates

DECEMBER 2008 state legislatures 17 Obama Leads State Lawmakers Headed to Washington

ON THEIR WAY TO WASHINGTON

SENATE (4 new, 1 carry-over) Colorado – U.S. Representative Mark Udall (D) Idaho – ex-State Senator James Risch (R) New Hampshire – ex-State Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D) North Carolina – State Senator Kay R. Hagan (D) Oregon – State Representative Jeff Merkley (D)

HOUSE (25) Alabama 5th – State Senator Parker Griffith (D) Arizona 1st – ex-State Representative Ann Kirkpatrick (D) Colorado 6th – ex-State Senator Michael Coffman (R) Florida 15th – State Senator William “Bill” Posey (R) Florida 24th – ex-State Representative Suzanne M. Kosmas (D) 11th – State Senator Deborah Halvorson (D) Illinois 18th – State Representative Aaron Schock (R) Kansas 2nd – ex-State Senator Lynn Jenkins (R) Kentucky 2nd – State Senator Brett Guthrie (R) Louisiana 6th – State Senator Bill Cassidy (R) Maine 1st – ex-State Senator Chellie Pingree (D) Michigan 7th – State Senator Mark Schauer (D) alf of the nation’s presidents have state legislators took a stab at win- Michigan 9th – ex-State Senator Gary C. Peters (D) Harrived at the White House with ning a U.S. House or Senate seat in 3rd – State Representative (R) biographies that included service in a the general election. At press time, Missouri 9th – ex-State Representative Blaine Luetkemeyer (R) state or colonial legislature. With his 28 were successful, and another five Nevada 3rd – State Senator Dina Titus (D) Nov. 4 election victory, U.S. Senator awaited the results of tight races. 3rd – State Senator John H. Adler (D) Barack Obama joins this exclusive Depending on those results, for- New Jersey 7th – State Senator Leonard Lance (R) club. mer state legislators will constitute New York 23rd – ex-State Assemblyman Paul D. Tonko (D) His experience in the Illinois Gen- roughly half of the freshmen class Ohio 1st – State Representative Steven Driehaus (D) eral Assembly is a point of pride for of House and Senate members. One Ohio 7th – State Senator Steven Austria (R) the nation’s 7,382 state legislators, of these, state Senator Kay Hagan Ohio 15th – State Senator Steve Stivers (R) some of whom may harbor dreams of North Carolina, has this distinc- Ohio 16th – State Senator John Boccieri (D) of one day following in his footsteps. tion: She follows Obama and sena- Oregon 5th – State Senator Kurt Schrader (D) President-elect Obama becomes the tors such as Patty Murray (Wash- Wyoming At-large – ex-State Senator Cynthia M. Lummis (R) first former state legislator to serve ington) and Jon Tester (Montana), in America’s highest office since all of whom went directly from their Pending Jimmy Carter, joining him as the only state legislature to the U.S. Senate, two since World War II. Also of note bypassing the typical stepping stone SENATE is the fact that the onetime Illinois of U.S. House membership. Georgia - ex-State Representative Jim Martin (D) (runoff state senator will be the first former Based on recent history, this year’s expected Dec.2) member of the National Confer- numbers are not unprecedented. They HOUSE ence of State Legislatures to become are on a par with the 2006 election, Alaska At-large - State Representative Ethan Berkowitz (D) president. Carter’s legislative career when 30 former and sitting state 4th - State Senator Tom McClintock (R) occurred before NCSL was founded. legislators were elected to national Maryland 1st - State Senator Andrew Harris (R) But Obama was not the only one office. The numbers are just slightly

with state legislative experience above the 2004 class, which included CHECK OUT a list of presidents who served at the colonial elected to national office this year. Obama. Eand state level and information about state legislators who went to More than six dozen sitting or former —Michael Bird and Paul Snow, NCSL Congress at www.ncsl.org/magazine.

18 state legislatures DECEMBER 2008