Making History Democrats Pump up Their Control of State Legislatures, but Republicans Also Make Gains
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ELECTION 2008 MAKING HISTORY Democrats pump up their control of state legislatures, but Republicans also make gains. BY TIM STOREY AND EDWARD SMITH ber of politically divided legislatures since Democrats took control of four legisla- 1982. Only eight states had split legislative tures—Delaware, Nevada, New York and he electoral tsunami that swept Senator control—Alaska, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Wisconsin. Those gains helped the Northeast Barack Obama into the White House Michigan, Montana, Pennsylvania and Vir- take on a deeper shade of blue, with every and delivered Democrats to Congress ginia. Partisan control of legislatures shifted chamber north of Virginia in Democratic also helped the party make historic in a dozen states. hands except for the lone splash of Repub- Tstrides at the state legislative level. Democrats won some big prizes, but lican red—the Pennsylvania Senate. Based Voters reversed a trend in recent elec- Republicans held their own, scoring historic on preliminary, unofficial results, Democrats tions and left states with the fewest num- victories in the South. In large measure, the now control both chambers in 27 states. results signaled a solidifying of regional “Democrats were successful all up and Tim Storey is NCSL’s elections expert. Edward Smith is the power and a decline in partisan parity across down the ticket,” says Matt Compton, com- managing editor of State Legislatures. the nation. munications director of the Democratic Leg- 14 STATE LEGISLATURES DECEMBER 2008 STATE LEGISLATURES POST-ELECTION 2008 REPUBLICAN-14 DEMOCRAT-27 DIVIDED-8 NONPARTISAN-1 GOVernor’s Party Post-ELECTION 2008 REPUBLICAN-21 DEMOCRAT-29 STATE GOVERNMENT POST-ELECTION 2008 REPUBLICAN-8 DEMOCRAT-17 DIVIDED-24 NONPARTISAN-1 islative Campaign Committee. “There’s been a fairly close division between the parties at the state level, but the Democrats have been steadily picking up numbers since 2003.” For Republicans, it was a sweet song in the South. The GOP took over legislatures in Tennessee and Oklahoma for the first time. And the party gained seats in the region despite a net loss nationwide of approxi- mately 100 seats. Republicans now control both chambers in 14 states, reflecting no net loss. Eight states are divided, with the Mon- Based on unofficial results pending recounts. DECEMBER 2008 STATE LEGISLATURES 15 tana House tied 50-50. Nebraska has a uni- paign is it did not just focus on get-out-the- cameral, nonpartisan Legislature. vote efforts in Democratic areas. The cam- Carrie Cantrell, spokeswoman for the paign really put an effort into going to the Republican State Leadership Committee, Republican areas. Obama looked everywhere called the outcome “strong victories” for the for votes.” GOP. In New York, Delaware and Wiscon- “The Democrats made huge plays in the sin, all of which went for Senator John Dakotas for Republican seats and were Kerry in 2004, the Obama coattails helped unsuccessful there, just like they were in down-ticket races. Delaware voters went 61 Tennessee,” she says. percent for Obama—and favorite son Joe The winners face opportunities and sober- Biden—and Wisconsin voters gave the Illi- ing reality. On the up side, parties that have nois senator 56 percent. New York’s 62-37 taken control of both chambers will have the percent split for Obama likely helped Dem- upper hand heading into the critical redistrict- ocrats in their successful bid for control of ing cycle following the 2010 census. On the the Senate. down side, nearly every state is facing deep Compton sees the situation somewhat fiscal problems that will persist through FY reversed, believing Obama was successful 2009 and, many economists think, dog states in part because Democratic state lawmakers into 2010. helped pave the way. “His campaign cer- From the perspective of state lawmakers, tainly helped with enthusiasm, but voters are though, the Obama victory does offer some- becoming more aware of what happens at the thing they have not seen since Jimmy Carter legislative level and they like what they see was in the White House. from Democratic leadership.” “You will have a president who has spent Democrats gained a seat in the Alaska time in a state legislature and knows and Senate, leaving that chamber tied 10-10. The understands the views of legislatures,” says party also held onto the Indiana House, main- Charlie Cook, publisher of the Cook Political taining a 52-48 margin, and the Pennsylvania Report and a longtime political analyst. House where some observers thought Demo- crats were endangered. WINS AND LOSSES The Senate win in New York is a historic Democrats took over five chambers: the change. Democrats now have control of both New York Senate, Delaware House, Wiscon- legislative chambers and the governor’s man- sin Assembly, Ohio House and Nevada Sen- sion for the first time since 1935, when Her- ate. All of those were in GOP hands for well bert H. Lehman was governor of the Empire over a decade. State. He was, ironically, one of the founders Overall, the trend in the Northeast is not Obama’s coattails appeared significant in of the now bankrupt Lehman Brothers invest- surprising, Ornstein says. the victories. Although the total number of ment bank. “New England is basically completing its legislative seats gained by Democrats was “It’s very historic. It’s the longest exam- march to the blue,” he says, and with that not huge, he helped the party take control of ple of a divided partisan legislature in the comes a purging of even the most moderate chambers long held by Republicans in some country,” says Gerald Benjamin, a political of Republicans. He pointed particularly to the big population states. Obama’s vaunted science professor at the State University of loss by U.S. Representative Christopher Shays field operation surely helped Democrats win New York, New Paltz, and an avid student of in Connecticut’s fourth district. It will be the legislative chambers in two states Bush won the New York Legislature. The change came first time since the GOP was founded in 1854 in 2004: Ohio, where he took 52 percent of largely because “the demographic wave is that New England will be without a Republi- the vote, and in Nevada, where Obama took overwhelming and it’s been held back by art- can in the U.S. House of Representatives. 55 percent of the vote. And it’s not surpris- ful gerrymandering for decades.” New England also scored one other his- ing. The party that won the White House has As it did at the national level, the tank- toric first on Election Night: New Hampshire picked up legislative seats in 20 of the past ing of Wall Street probably played a role in voters gave women the majority in the Sen- 28 elections since 1900, including this year. GOP losses in New York. But he added that ate. It is the first time a legislative chamber “Obama’s money for a ground game in the state’s deep fiscal problems—including has had more women than men. places where you might not otherwise go a more than $12 billion shortfall this fiscal offered a lot of inadvertent help” to down- year—means that will be the dominant issue. REPUBLICAN GAINS ticket candidates, says Norman Ornstein, a “The first thing is to manage the financial The GOP’s gains in the South were simi- political scientist and resident scholar at the crisis,” Benjamin says. “The social issues larly historic. The flip of the Tennessee American Enterprise Institute. “One of the that might find great support in a Democratic House from Democratic to Republican con- things that characterized the Obama cam- Senate will not be the focus.” trol was the biggest surprise of the election 16 STATE LEGISLATURES DECEMBER 2008 THE WESTERN VIEW not liking either Palin or the recklessness of The parties both enjoyed success in the McCain, and all seeing a landslide and their West. Democrats took over the Nevada Sen- vote not making a difference,” Gans says. ate by gaining two seats in the Las Vegas However, turnout expert Michael McDon- area. They also gained one seat in the House, ald at George Mason University expects the giving them a two-thirds super-majority. number could go to 133.3 million, large but The state is facing a nearly $1 billion bud- still smaller in percentage terms than the get shortfall and is “ground zero for foreclo- turnout in 1960 and 1964. sures,” according to Erik Herzik, chair of the But predictions of a strong youth vote did political science department at the University pan out and that was good news for Demo- of Nevada, Reno. crats. Preliminary estimates from the Center It leaves the state in a very tough fiscal for Information & Research on Civic Learn- spot, but Governor Jim Gibbons “has said ing and Engagement at Tufts University are absolutely no new taxes and will not change that 22 million to 24 million Americans aged from that position. It would be political sui- 18 to 29 voted, up more than 2 million from cide to even modify his stance,” Herzik says. 2004. And they favored Obama over Senator For the GOP, Montana was a bright spot in John McCain 66 percent to 32 percent. the Rockies. Republicans wrested back con- Charlie Cook thinks the modest gains for trol of the Senate, which they lost in 2004. Democrats at the state and congressional level The Montana Legislature is historically the were a little surprising. “You didn’t see the most competitive in the country, having impressive, big Democratic gains as expected. changed hands repeatedly over the past 75 Maybe voters pulled the Obama lever and years.