Monthly Food Security Update APRIL 2006

Alert Level: No Alert Watch Warning Emergency

CONTENTS Summary and implications Summary and calendar...... 1 Current hazard summary ...... 1 Farming activities in the country’s major crop-producing areas are virtually at a standstill. After good harvests of rainfed crops and main-season rice crops, this time Food outlook for 2006...... 1 of year is known as the idle period devoted to growing off-season and flood-recession Progress of off-season crops for crops, mainly in the Timbuktu, Ségou, and Kayes regions. 2005/06...... 1

Conditions in the livestock sector ...... 2 The good climatic conditions during last year’s rainy season are responsible for this Trends on grain markets...... 3 year’s highly satisfactory conditions in livestock-raising areas. Right now, pasture production is more than adequate and animal watering conditions are good. Even with the normal deterioration expected over the next few months, conditions in grazing areas are not likely to get that bad.

Market supplies of all types of grain crops are fair. As of the end of March, prices on retail markets in regional capitals around the country reportedly had inched upward.

Seasonal calendar

Current hazard summary

• There is a growing threat of a bird flu epidemic in the wake of reported outbreaks in neighboring Niger in February and Burkina Faso in April.

Food outlook for 2005/06

Despite high grain prices, in general the country-wide food situation for 2006 should remain quiet due to:

• The 3,398,627 metric ton harvest, producing a nationwide grain balance sheet with an overall surplus; • Good conditions in the livestock sector; • Large household and village-level food reserves; • Regular supplies on grain markets and adequate grain availability to meet demand; • The leveling off or small rise in grain prices.

Progress of off-season crops for 2005/06

After extremely good harvests of rainfed crops and main-season rice crops, which have been steadily growing year after year, for the past several years farming activities in the country’s major crop-producing areas are virtually at a standstill. This time of year is known as the idle period devoted to growing off-season and flood-recession crops, mainly in the Timbuktu, Ségou, Koulikoro and Kayes region.

FEWS NET/Mali Tel: (223) 229 94 60 USAID BP 34 FEWS NET is funded by the US Agency for International Development Fax: (223) 229 09 80 Hamdallaye ACI 2000 www.fews.net E-mail: [email protected] Bamako, Mali

MALI: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE APRIL 2006

In lake areas of the Timbuktu region and Niafunké district in particular, wheat, barley and sorghum crops are in the heading stage, maize crops are in the height growth stage and cowpea, sweet potato and anise-cumin crops are in the branching stage. On the whole, crops are making good progress and fields are in good condition.

Farmers in irrigated rice-growing areas are still busy planting seedbeds, with some localized transplanting of rice seedlings. In general, the 2005/06 off-season is going well in the Office de Développement Rural de Sélingué (ODRS) irrigation district, the Office du Niger (ON) irrigation scheme in Ségou and the Office des Périmètres Irrigués de Baguineda (OPIB) irrigation district.

In the Office du Niger irrigation scheme in Ségou, the month of March was marked by:

• The marketing of rainy season rice crops and truck crops: According to a sample survey by the Office du Niger irrigation agency, the preliminary production figure for the 2005/06 rainy season, which is over, is 437,622 metric tons of paddy rice, up 5 percent from last season’s figure of 418,583 MT.

• The regular progress of off-season rice-farming and truck-farming activities: Off-season rice-growing and truck farming activities are going strong in all areas. As of the end of March, rice farmers had planted 447 hectares of seedbeds which, according to the experts, technically, once transplanted, could yield 8,940 hectares of rice crops. A total of 8,170 hectares of rice crops have been transplanted to date, compared with an anticipated area of 6,580 hectares and the 7,854 hectare area transplanted by the same time last year. Truck farmers have planted 7,356 hectares in crops, versus an anticipated area of 7,167 hectares. There are 73.15 hectares of land under experimental wheat crops in the Office du Niger area, compared with an initial estimate of 300 hectares of wheat fields. These crops are already in the maturation and early harvesting stages.

On the whole, the 2005/06 off-season is going well.

Conditions in the livestock sector

The lean period for the country’s animal Figure 1. Condition of natural vegetation (NDVI) for the period from population is already underway. It should reach March 21st through March 31st and comparison with the average for its peak in May-June and is not expected to end 1982-2005 until the definitive start of the rainy season in July.

The good climatic conditions during last year’s rainy season (July through October) are responsible for this year’s highly satisfactory conditions in grazing areas.

So-called “emergent” pasturelands (located far from year-round water resources such as rivers) are in satisfactory condition. Their condition will gradually deteriorate over the next few months, in keeping with normal seasonal trends.

However, it is not expected to get that bad and March 21-31, 2006 March 21-31, 2006 is being categorized as average at the country- vs. Average 1982-2005 wide level. These trends are corroborated by satellite images of the condition of natural vegetation as of the end of March (Figure 1). Thus, there is expected to be less long-distance migration this year in search of fresh pasture or watering holes. FEWS NET/Mali. Source: NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), Floodplain pastures or bourgou grassland areas USGS surrounding rivers and lakes are covered with lush vegetation in the Mopti region and the lake areas of Timbuktu. These grassland areas are an extremely important potential source of food for local livestock. These grazing lands are well managed to prevent overgrazing or any potential conflicts.

Animal watering conditions around year-round watering holes are satisfactory. Most temporary lakes and ponds and certain smaller streams have begun to dry up, which is normal for this time of year. Animals are being watered at rivers, wells, drain tanks, seasonal lakes and ponds, boreholes, impounding reservoirs or dams and irrigation ditches. On the

2 MALI: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE APRIL 2006 whole, animal watering conditions are still satisfactory at this point in time, particularly in the northern Timbuktu, Gao and Kidal regions.

Most sedentary animals are grazing freely in harvested fields of crops and around villages. The Kayes region is still reporting small numbers of migratory animals from the northern part of the country heading south and has signaled the arrival of migratory animal herds out of Mauritania. Animals in Ségou and Mopti are still grazing in irrigated rice fields and on flood-irrigated pasturelands. Large numbers of herds from Yorosso district are also reportedly in Burkina Faso and Cote d’Ivoire, while herds from Ségou, Koulikoro, Mopti and Bamako District are ensconced in grazing areas of Yanfolila district. In the , migratory herds are ensconced in their usual dry season grazing areas of choice in , Banamba, , Kati and Nara districts. Elsewhere, in the Timbuktu and Gao regions, animals are still heading back to floodplain pastures to graze on bourgou grasslands. Animals in Kidal are concentrated in their regular grazing areas around seasonal lakes and ponds.

On the whole, fattened animals are in fine shape, and animal production levels are good.

Trends on grain markets

A look at conditions on grain markets shows fair supplies of all types of grain crops as a combined result of the rebuilding of household and village-level reserves and private inventories, plus last year’s unusually steep upward spiral in prices.

Thus, as of the end of March, prices on retail markets in regional capitals around the country were up slightly, except in Ségou, where prices are coming down. Specifically, millet prices rose 2.8 percent in Kayes, 11 percent in Koulikoro, 6.12 percent in Sikasso, 6.45 percent in Mopti, 3.3 percent in Timbuktu, 0.9 percent in Gao and 9.7 percent in Bamako between February and the end of March, with the Ségou market reporting prices down slightly, or by 3.8 percent (Figure 2). Prices are up from the same time last year in Kayes and Timbuktu, are practically on par with last year in Sikasso, Mopti and Gao, and are down from last year in Koulikoro, Ségou and Bamako.

The leveling off of prices in lieu Figure 2. Trends in monthly millet prices on retail markets in regional of a continuing upward spiral capitals: January through March of 2005 and 2006 will benefit farmers and consumers alike. Farmers will 250 profit from their good harvests 2005 2006 and earn more money than usual. As far as consumers are 200 concerned, the stabilization of prices after last year’s unusually steep price hikes means easier grain access. 150

The magnitude of normal seasonal upswings in prices FCFA/kg 100 over the next few months is largely dependent on conditions at the start of the rainy season. 50

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Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Mar Feb Mar Feb Mar Feb Mar Feb Mar Feb Mar Feb Mar Feb Mar Kayes Koulikoro Sikasso Ségou Mopti Timbuktu Gao Bamako

Graphic by FEWS NET/Mali; Source of data: OMA (Agricultural Market Observatory)

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