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Swing Voters Unique and Influential viewpointers, an analytics consultancy • registration and swing voters election study • prepared for larry marso • © june 2020 san francisco republicans unique and influential July 2019-March 2020 ? , a San Francisco analytics consultancy, is a pioneer Viewpointers of “cast vote” technology that reads whole ballot cards. How did voters for one candidate vote in other races? What was each voter’s party in the March 2020 primary? Who skipped races? Which races had high party participation Citywide. Precincts level. Individual voting stations. [email protected] Special thanks to the San Francisco Department of Elections SAN FRANCISCO REPUBLICANS UNIQUE & INFLUENTIAL SWING VOTERS Preface: The Irrelevant Meme 1 District Attorney Republicans elect Chesa Boudin 2 D5 Supervisor Republicans elect Dean Preston 3 Proposition D (Nov) Republicans pass Uber/Lyft Tax 4 Tech Sidelined Missed opportunities 5 Voter Registration Republican position in freefall 6 Congressional D12 Surprising Republican split 7 State Offices Smith and McDonnell outperform 8 Proposition D (Mar) Republicans pass Vacancy Tax 9 Superior Court 21 Republicans elect Carolyn Gold Epilogue: Future of the Party PREFACE The Irrelevant Meme Republican voters in San Francisco are dismissed as a joke, irrelevant, powerless. Such thinking infects both the left and the right. Yes, many Republicans believe it too. Leaders, media, and rank and file voters on the left question whether the party even exists. Worse, they call Republicans MAGA racist “fine people” with little pushback. Is it better on the right? Local Republican donors, rank and file voters, and party leadership often signal low expectations and misinterpret election results. In search of a base, some Republicans lunge rightward, treat San Francisco as a “national stage” to attack politicians supported by many Republican voters, and scramble for minutes on Fox News — withdrawing almost entirely from local politics. They get wrong one simple fact: San Francisco Republicans are unique and influential swing votersin some of the most important local elections. Republicans have decided ballot measures and determined whether center/center-left candidates prevail over far-left progressives. This influence has gone awry and is slipping away. From July 2019 to March 2020, Republicans missed opportunities and their registration position deteriorated. The decline of the Republican swing voter puts San Francisco policy in turmoil. P Preface DISTRICT ATTORNEY BOUDIN Ranked Choice BOUDIN Source: Department of Elections ¡ BOUDIN TUS registered voted TUS to scale margin Republicans TUNG Description Votes % TUS Boudin X 86,712 50.8% Loftus 83,872 49.2% Total NG Counted 170,584 100.0% Vote TCH Margin 2,840 1.7% Swing 1,421 0.8% Multiple of Boudin Margin ⇓ fell out Fell Out – Tung 15,981 5.6x ped fell out Fell Out – Total 35,533 12.5x R Nonvoters 18,714 6.6x 1 2 3 Multiple of Boudin Swing ⇓ Rounds Tung→Boudin 13,162 9.3x R Turnout 13,907 9.8x The Republican Party did not formally oppose Chesa Boudin or encourage voters to complete the full ranked choice ballot. The Party formally recommended Nancy Tung, a second-tier Democrat. Republicans who strictly followed this guidance fell out during the 2nd round. Any combination of small changes to Republican swing votes, fell out or swing votes defeats Boudin. Republican turnout almost 10 times the Boudin swing vote. Republican nonvoters over 6.5 times the Boudin margin. Mayoral candidate Zhou (R) voters broke for Boudin over Loftus, 13,111 to 11,651, enough to swing the race, and 10,458 more fell out. D5 Supervisor candidate Lam (R) voters also broke for Boudin. Chesa Boudin, the adopted son of Weather Underground radicals Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn, won the November 2019 race for San Francisco District Attorney. The former public defender, with no experience as a prosecutor, offered a George Soros inspired progressive agenda. “The most distinctive platform” in the D.A. race said the SF Chronicle. Boudin promised to stop prosecuting the homeless for misdemeanors, end “mass incarceration” of violent felons and defend “safe injection sites”. 1 Influence: Republicans Elect Chesa Boudin DISTRICT 5 SUPERVISOR WN Ranked Choice BROWN Source: BRO Department of Elections D5 registered PRESTO voted margin Republicans to scale STO Description Votes % ES . EAR Brown 11,538 49 6% Preston X 11,723 50.4% Total Vote Counted 23,261 100.0% AM AM Margin 185 0.8% Swing 93 0.4% Multiple of Preston Margin ⇓ fell out fell out ped FellOut–Lam 335 1.8x Fell Out – Total 1,504 8.1x 1 2 3 R Nonvoters D5 1,119 6.0x Rounds Multiple of Preston Swing ⇓ Lam→Preston 414 4.5x R Turnout D5 868 9.3x The Republican Party did not formally oppose Dean Preston or encourage voters to complete the full ranked choice ballot. In his first campaign, young Republican Ryan Lam (R) entered the race. Any combination of small changes to Republican swing votes, fell out or turnout defeats Preston. Republican turnout over 9 times the Boudin swing of just 93 ( ! ) votes. Republican nonvoters 6 times the Boudin margin. Lam voters, after the 2nd round, broke for Preston and elected him. Mayoral candidate Zhou (R) voters also broke for Preston over Brown, 957 to 496, enough to swing the race, and 241 fell out. Dean Preston won the November 2019 special election for District 5 Supervisor. Preston began his legal practice in the office of Democrat litigator John Burris, where he specialized in suing police officers and departments. For the past 20 years, Preston has represented tenants against San Francisco landlords at the Tenderloin Housing Clinic, and has fought rent control reform statewide. In 2019, Preston joined the Democratic Socialists of America, their only elected municipal official in California. 2 Influence: Republicans Elect Dean Preston PROPOSITION D (Nov. 2019) Uber/Lyft Tax Source: Department of Elections Description Votes % Threshold 133,745 66.7% to scale YES X 135,721 67.7% NO 64,896 32.3% Total 200,617 100.0% needed Margin 1976 1.0% 2 ⁄3 Swing 989 0.5% Multiple of YES Margin ⇓ Skipped 5,505 5.6x R NonVoters 18,714 6.6x Multiple of YES Swing ⇓ RTurnout 13,907 14.1x The Republican Party won the lottery to become the “official opponent” certified by the Department of Elections. Although the Party formally endorsed NO on D, it is unclear Republicans campaigned against the tax. A media search and voter canvass identified no earned media, ad buys or slate mailer. Any combination of small changes to Republican swing votes or turnout defeats Proposition D. Flipping less than 1,000 votes swings the race. Republican turnout over 14 times the YES swing vote. Republican nonvoters almost 7 times the YES margin. A rare opportunity to engage younger voters: Fight a permanent tax on your everyday personal and professional lifestyle. Take another look at the Republican Party — free markets are “Uber for Everything”. Proposition D, which imposed a 3.25% tax on Uber & Lyft individual rides, passed in November 2019. This tax rate is over 40% of the local sales tax. Ridership is predominently younger voters coveted by the Republican Party. Prior to Shelter in Place, 5,700 vehicles made 170,000 trips daily within San Francisco, about 12 times the number of taxi trips, representing 15 percent of all intra-San Francisco vehicle trips. Shared rides, subject to a lower 1.5% tax, are suspended during Shelter in Place. 3 Influence: Republicans Pass Uber/Lyft Tax Source: Department of Elections TECH SIDELINED (at October 2019) Missed Opportunities Registered Voters by Precinct 0 50 100 150 200 No Party Preference (Under 30) Republicans (of All Ages) 30,389 32,542 uber/lyft friday am shared ride pickups About as many NPP voters under the age of thirty as voters of all source: sfmta ages in the Republican Party. Where one map is darker, the other is often lighter. Proposed campaigns for November 2019 included analytics-driven email, virtual phone banks, robocall and SMS to urge NPP under 30 and Republicans of all ages to vote NO on the Uber/Lyft tax. Focus on areas with heavy Uber/Lyft pickups and dropoffs identified by the SFMTA. Including younger, high NPP precincts where the Republican Party has made few inroads. Another: Ranked Voting education targeting precincts with high historical “fell out” in the analytics. a media search and voter canvass identified no such efforts by the republican party. 4 Tech Sidelined New P Join Leave REGISTRATION Required to Match Growth of Voters Position in Freefall Source: A Democratic Party Home Run Department of Elections +37,687 (22,388) +19,134 (3,067) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Registration is dynamic, with new voters, DOE purges of the voter rolls and party switching. Between July 2019 and March 2020, the Democratic Party routed San Francisco Republicans. Democrats — their local county central committee in the lead — registered 37,687 new voters and convinced 19,134 voters to re-register as Democrat between July 2019 and March 2020. 5.0% of Republicans became Democrats. Only 0.2% of Democrats became Republicans. After purges and leavers, there are 31,367 new Democrats, totalling 318,367 (up 4.3% from 287,024). This increase, alone, almost the size of the entire Republican Party. Overall San Francisco registration rose to 513,660 (up 3.2% from 497,634). Only 33,087 Republicans remained in San Francisco after the election (down to 6.4%). 5-A Registration Catastrophe New Purge Join Leave REGISTRATION Required to Match Growth of Voters Position in Freefall Source: No Party Preference: The Harvest Department of Elections +12,292 (12,725) +3,539 (17,484) 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 -5,000 -10,000 -15,000 The Republican Party did not disrupt the Democratic Party’s widely anticipated harvest of NPP voters.
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