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Market Assessment • Competitive Position Analysis

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Market Assessment • Competitive Position Analysis Market assessment • Competitive position analysis 2013 Prepared for the Golden Triangle BID 2 Jones Lang LaSalle • Market assessment • Competitive position analysis • Golden Triangle BID • Spring 2013 Contents Introduction 3 Demographic insight 5 Residential demographics 5 Employment demographics 6 Looking ahead 7 Economic conditions 9 Metro Washington economy 9 Golden Triangle economic forecast 10 Golden Triangle office insight 11 Office relocation analysis 11 Shifting office requirements 11 Rents 13 Ownership composition 13 Investor profile trends 14 Investment sales trends 14 Development 14 Retail and amenities 17 Retail spending potential 18 Planning, urban design and economic development 19 Planning 19 Case study: The Woodward Building 20 Urban design 20 Economic development 21 Conclusions 23 Appendix A: Employment comparison 24 Appendix B: Tenant mix 26 Appendix C: Office relocation analysis 27 Notable moves 28 Appendix D: Property owners 29 Jones Lang LaSalle • Market assessment • Competitive position analysis • Golden Triangle BID • Spring 2013 3 Introduction The Golden Triangle is a thriving office district, containing a mix of sustained employment growth in existing and new business sectors, prestigious tenants, including the nation’s leading law firms, banking such as health care and social assistance. The fourth section examines and financial institutions, associations/unions, non-profits and consult- retail and other amenities in the neighborhood, noting that the retail ing groups. The Golden Triangle encompasses a quarter mile area of potential is present, but not fully realized. In general, the amount of Washington, DC’s central business district (CBD), shown in Figure 1. retail throughout the DC region is growing, as new retail areas emerge With its prime location near three metro lines and in close proximity to and existing areas expand. In light of the added retail supply in the major transportation routes, the CBD has long been one of the most marketplace, stores in the Golden Triangle are still successful. The desirable and top-performing submarkets in Metro Washington. As fifth section presents a perspective on planning, urban design and successful as it has been on the office side and even on the retail side, economic development considerations for the Golden Triangle. One of we believe the potential over the next three, five, seven and ten years the most significant planning and economic development opportunities, is even greater. The CBD’s success has been driven by office product. in response to the neighborhood’s primary challenge, lies in diversify- With the partnership of city government, we believe the potential could ing the neighborhood with other uses beyond commercial office space. diversify to the multifamily, hotel and retail markets, helping break the Several ideas, such as pocket parks, public art and residential uses are perception of the neighborhood as a 9 to 5 community. discussed in this section. The following study presents a market assessment and competitive Overall, the findings conclude that the Golden Triangle is a core market positioning analysis of the Golden Triangle. The first three sections in the city and that the District as a whole will benefit greatly from evaluate residential and employee/office data, as well as the greater developing a more expansive base of amenities and mixture of uses economic forecast for DC, noting that the Golden Triangle is an office compared to what the neighborhood offers today. district with a diverse tenant mix amidst well-educated and afflu- ent residential neighborhoods. In the greater economic context of the Washington, DC metro region, the Golden Triangle is poised for Figure 1. The Golden Triangle is located within the CBD of Washington, DC. 4 Jones Lang LaSalle • Market assessment • Competitive position analysis • Golden Triangle BID • Spring 2013 Jones Lang LaSalle • Market assessment • Competitive position analysis • Golden Triangle BID • Spring 2013 5 Demographic insight Demographics are important for determining how the Golden Triangle is Golden Triangle DC poised to attract top talent, employers and retail. As the first crossroad 0.5 miles 1.0 mile 1.5 miles for the Red Line from the Northwest and Suburban Maryland and the 2012 Population 16,138 56,272 101,637 617,405 Orange and Blue Lines from Northern Virginia, the Golden Triangle is 2017 Population 16,354 58,531 106,545 649,406 ideally situated for office and retail demand and growth. Thus far, the Percent Change 1% 4% 5% 5% focus of the Golden Triangle remains on its strong office product; the Figure 2. Residential population surrounding the Golden Triangle and projected popula- tion growth through 2017 Source: ESRI, Jones Lang LaSalle demographic profile of the Golden Triangle suggests excellent potential Custom Map for not only office, but also retail and residential, as younger genera- 2012 Median Household Income (Esri) by Block Groups tions are attracted to mixed-use environments. Residential demographics The Golden Triangle boundaries are defined by the commercial office buildings in this area; however, it is important to consider the adjacent Golden Triangle residential areas within walking distance. These nearby neighbor- hoods - Dupont Circle, Foggy Bottom, West End and Georgetown - are 0.5 Miles established and continue to attract a mix of people. An estimated 1 Mile 2012 Median Household Income 16,138 people reside within half a mile of the center of the Golden 1.5 Miles $106,518 - $200,001 $79,999 - $106,517 Triangle, shown in Figure 2. Furthermore, 56,272 people (9.1 percent $57,085 - $79,998 $36,058 - $57,084 of the District of Columbia population) reside within a mile of the center $0 - $36,057 Figure 3. Income levels for areas surrounding the Golden Triangle. The areas immediApril- 06, 2013 of the Golden Triangle. To put this in context, one-sixth of the District of Made with Esri Business Analyst ately©2013 Esri surrounding the Golden Trianglewww.esri.com/ba BID 800-447-9778 have some Try itof Now! the most affluent householdsPage in 1 of 1 Columbia population resides within one and a half miles of the Golden Washington, DC. Source: ESRI, Jones Lang LaSalle Triangle. The residents in these neighborhoods have high disposable incomes to spend on neighborhood goods and services and constitute a well-edu- cated and talented workforce. Figure 3 displays the median income lev- els for households around the Golden Triangle, confirming the potential for neighborhood expenditures. One of the biggest factors businesses consider when deciding where to locate is their proximity to and ability to attract a talented workforce. Within one mile of the Golden Triangle, 75.4 percent of residents over 25 have a bachelor’s degree or higher. This is substantially higher than the 50.4 percent with a bachelor’s degree or higher in the District of Co- lumbia. The educational attainment surrounding the Golden Triangle is also higher than that of Arlington County (70.4 percent), Fairfax County (59.3 percent) and Montgomery County (57.0 percent). Further bolstering the Golden Triangle demographics are two world- class universities located within one and a half miles - The George Washington University and Georgetown University. At a half mile radius around the Golden Triangle, half the residential population consists of people aged 15-24, representative of the George Washington Univer- sity student body, with more than 10,000 undergraduate students (The George Washington University total student body consists of more than 24,000 undergraduate and graduate students). These students are a strong demographic to recognize just outside the Golden Triangle. 6 Jones Lang LaSalle • Market assessment • Competitive position analysis • Golden Triangle BID • Spring 2013 The population of the one-mile radius surrounding the Golden Trian- Golden District of East Loop Financial District Triangle Columbia Chicago Boston gle will increase 4.0 percent between 2012 and 2017, according to Total businesses: 5,731 35,086 3,434 5,495 third-party growth estimates; the projected population increases lag be- Total employees: 81,532 629,192 84,805 116,039 hind the 5.0 percent population growth for the rest of Washington, DC. Total residents: 384 606,719 4,029 3,779 Population projections are lower around the Golden Triangle, because Employee/resident ratio: 212.15 1.04 21.05 30.70 it is a well-established neighborhood and other parts of the District are Employment density (per square mile): 301,970 9,212 385,477 351,633 experiencing greater amounts of mixed-use residential development; Figure 4.The Golden Triangle has an extremely high employment density. certain parts of Washington, DC, including the East End, are project- Source: ESRI, Jones Lang LaSalle ed to experience population growth as large as 8.4 percent. There is the potential though for the Golden Triangle to tap into the District’s substantial in-migration of young professionals in the past decade. These younger generations are attracted to living and working in urban, Golden Triangle walkable places with amenities, presenting a prime opportunity for the Employees Percent Golden Triangle. The strong demographics of the people living immedi- Professional, scientific and tech services 29,111 35.7% ately adjacent to the Golden Triangle boundaries implies that the area Other services (except public administration) 13,035 16.0% Accommodation & food services 5,341 6.6% is likely to attract a similar or even better demographic profile within the Information 5,211 6.4% boundaries, bringing with them additional jobs, spending, and taxes. Finance and insurance 4,594 5.6% Employment demographics Public administration 2,385 2.9% The approximately 5,731 businesses contained within the Golden Tri- Management of companies and enterprise 77 0.1% Figure 5. Selected industries in the Golden Triangle. The professional, scientific and angle employ approximately 90,000 people. Figure 4 shows how these technical services sector contains the largest number of employees. Source: ESRI, Jones statistics compare to the District of Columbia and other central business Lang LaSalle districts across the country.
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