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KWAME NKRUMAH UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY- KUMASI EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATES VOLATILITY ON STOCK PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM THE GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE BY KUNTOMAH CHRISTOPHER BSC. MATHEMATICAL SCIENCE (COMPUTER SCIENCE OPTION) A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT FOR THE AWARD OF MASTER OF SCIENCE (INDUSTRIAL MATHEMATICS) OCTOBER, 2013 i DECLARATION I hereby declare that this research is my own work towards Master of Science degree in Industrial Mathematics and that, to the best of my knowledge, this work contains no material previously published by another person nor material which has been accepted for the award of any other degree of the University, except where due acknowledgement has been made in the text. Kuntomah Christopher …………………… ………………… (PG6320811) Signature Date Student‟s Name and ID Certified by: Mr. F. K. Darkwah …………………… ……………………… Supervisor Signature Date Certified by: Prof. S. K. Amponsah ……………………… …………………… Head of Department Signature Date Mathematics Department KNUST ii ABSTRACT This study looked at the effect of exchange rate volatility on stock prices in Ghana. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model was used to establish the relationship between exchange rate volatility and stock prices. It was revealed that there is a negative relationship between stock prices movements and exchange rates volatility and the relationship is weak and insignificant. This implies that an increase in exchange rate volatility will lead to a decrease in stock market volatility. It is therefore recommended that policy makers should focus on other macroeconomic variables such as inflation, and interest rates so as to simulate growth in the local economy through investments in the Ghana Stock Exchange. iii TABLE OF CONTENT Contents Page DECLARATION ................................................................................................................ ii ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... iii TABLE OF CONTENT ..................................................................................................... iv LIST OF ACRONYMS .................................................................................................... vii DEDICATION ................................................................................................................. viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ................................................................................................. ix CHAPTER 1 ....................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 Foreign Exchange Market .......................................................................................... 2 1.1.3 The Stock Market ....................................................................................................... 7 1.2 Statement of Problem .................................................................................................. 11 1.3 Objective of the Study ................................................................................................ 12 1.4 Methodology ............................................................................................................... 12 1.3 Significance of the Study ............................................................................................ 13 1.9 Organization of the Work ........................................................................................... 14 CHAPTER 2 ..................................................................................................................... 15 LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................. 15 2.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 15 2.1 Review of Empirical Findings .................................................................................... 15 2.2 Review of Methods ..................................................................................................... 26 CHAPTER 3 ..................................................................................................................... 29 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................... 29 3.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 29 3.1 Features of Time Series Data And Stochastic Processes ............................................ 29 iv 3.2 Heteroskedasticity ....................................................................................................... 30 3.3 Autocorrelation ........................................................................................................... 31 3.4 Stochastic Processes.................................................................................................... 32 3.4.1 Stationary and Unit Root Test.................................................................................. 33 3.1.2 Unit Root Test .......................................................................................................... 33 3.3 The Model ................................................................................................................... 35 3.3.1 ARCH (q) model ...................................................................................................... 36 3.3.3 THE GARCH (p,q) MODEL ................................................................................... 37 3.4 Model Illustration........................................................................................................ 37 3.4.1 Model Estimation ..................................................................................................... 40 CHAPTER 4 ..................................................................................................................... 45 DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS ............................................................................... 45 4.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 45 4.1 Data Collection ........................................................................................................... 45 4.2 Data Processing ........................................................................................................... 46 4.2.1 Stationary (Unit Root) Test ...................................................................................... 47 4.3 Garch Order Selection................................................................................................. 50 4.4 Results From GARCH (1, 1) Estimation .................................................................... 51 4.5 Model Checking .......................................................................................................... 53 4.6 Forecasting Stock Returns Volatility .......................................................................... 56 CHAPTER 5 ..................................................................................................................... 61 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................... 61 5.1 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 61 5.2 Recommendations ....................................................................................................... 62 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. 64 APPENDIX A ................................................................................................................... 80 APPENDIX B ................................................................................................................... 91 APPENDIX C ................................................................................................................... 97 v LIST OF TABLES Table 1Table 3.1: Data set for GARCH (1,1) demonstration ............................................ 38 Table 2Table 3.2: Summary of Stock returns and exchange rates stationary test results ................................................................................................................................. 39 Table 3Table 4.1: Stock Prices and Exchange Rates ......................................................... 45 Table 4Table 4.2: Summary of ADF test results ............................................................... 49 Table 5Table 4.3: Summary of GARCH order selection results ....................................... 50 Table 6Table 4.4: Results of GARCH (1, 1) estimation .................................................... 52 Table 7Table 4.5: Results of Correlogram Squared Residuals. ......................................... 54 Table 8Table 4.7: Stock returns forecast results ................................................................ 56 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1Figure 4.1: Graph of stock prices ........................................................................ 47 Figure 2Figure 4.2: Graph of interbank exchange rates ..................................................