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Wharf REIC (1997.HK) 25 April 2018 | 2:00AM HKT Wharf REIC (1997.HK) y Property giant with quality HK retail exposure; initiate at Buy u B Justin Kwok, CFA +852-2978-0481 | [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Colin Yao +65-6654-5426 | [email protected] Retail rentals rising via giant and quality shopping malls Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Direct access to giant and quality retail assets in Hong Kong n Wharf REIC, the 3rd-largest listed retail-focused landlord globally, is an owner and operator of key mixed-use investment properties in Hong Kong, with aggregate GAV of c.HK$283bn and c.12mn sq ft GFA of properties. The flagship retail malls in Key Data __________________________________ Hong Kong (Harbour City, Times Square and Hollywood Plaza) !"#$ account for 62% of GAV and contributed c.70% to total HK IP %& %& %& %&'% ( revenue in 2017. )!* ________________________________ n In addition, their retail tenant sales together account for c.9.2% GS Forecast of total HK retail market sales in 2017, with tenant sales growth outperforming that of the overall market in most of the time during the past decade. !" !" ##$$%#&$' ()$*)!" Initiate at Buy with HK$65 12-mo NAV-based TP amid improving HK +,+%#&$' retail sales backdrop n As HK retail sales growth quickens (our HK Retail team has For the exclusive use of [email protected] revised up their 2018 forecast to 8% yoy; see Riding the GS Factor Profile ____________________________ recovery wave, near-term outlook still rosy, April 24), we see a positive outlook for retail landlords to move up their retail rentals. In particular, given the recent retail market growth largely led by tourist spending, we see more upside for prime-located malls with luxury offerings, including Harbour City and Times Square. We are modelling a 7% p.a. retail spot rental growth in n 2018E/2019E respectively, and we see upside potential to Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Bloomberg consensus DPS forecast, which we stands at 2/3% See disclosures for details. above the aforesaid in 2018E/2019E respectively. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html . Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. Goldman Sachs Wharf REIC (1997.HK) Wharf REIC (1997.HK) Balance Sheet (HK$ mn) __________________________________ Buy Rating since Apr 25, 2018 ! Ratios & Valuation _______________________________________ " #$$% # & '' '' '' '' ( ) " &') ! " " " " ! " " " " *! #$%$&'$ +'), ($)*$+,-) " .*(-($,),'$*$/*.* " +-.%.* " " -&'), .*0..%,'$*$.((1 / / " " &') ',($ ! " " " " ( &') ')(,-) 2-).1 !! !! !! !! "" # $ Growth & Margins (%) ____________________________________ % $ &# $ ' ( &* )* !, ! " .#/ '' '' ! #$ " 0/$+12345 % & " " " "" % & " " " " Cash Flow (HK$ mn) ______________________________________ #& '%% & Price Performance _______________________________________ ! "#$%&'( " !!!# "!# )*'&*+(% " # " # " # " # ,'(-'. " # " !# " # " # /. 0. )* ! 0'" '+# "! # " # " # 1$"# )*+&*+(% " !# ! " !# " !# $ " # ## #### 2*+(% " # ! ! Source: FactSet. Price as of 24 Apr 2018 close. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Income Statement (HK$ mn) _______________________________ For the exclusive use of [email protected] !" #!$ %&'( ( )*+' ,, ,, ,, ,, -%+' ,, ,, ,, ,, $')(( !.(/( 0( ( )*+' 1 ).*.)( 2 (( + 3( (4( 2( ( ,, ,, ,, ,, !"#"!$%& 2,++)'( ,, ,, ,, ,, !"#%"!$%& '#(%""&#)*+& '#,$-,"&#)*+& '#(%"%"&#)*+& '#,$-,%"&#)*+& '#,$-,"$'.&#)*+& $2567 25 April 2018 2 Goldman Sachs Wharf REIC (1997.HK) n Initiate at Buy with a HK$65 12-mo NAV-based target price. Strong cash flow + commitment to payout add clarity to shareholder returns Company background - a spun-off as a giant property investor n Wharf REIC is an owner and operator of key mixed-use investment properties in Hong Kong, with aggregate GAV of c.HK$283bn and c.12mn sq ft GFA of properties. Their flagship shopping malls include Harbour City (in Tsim Sha Tsui), Times Square (in Causeway Bay), and Hollywood Plaza (in Diamond Hill). HK investment properties (62% of GAV) is the key of its GAV (at c.HK$283bn), and its HK retail assets at HK$169bn are the largest in our coverage. Exhibit 1: 62% of Wharf REIC is exposed to HK retail property, and 66% is from the crown jewel Harbour City complex Wharf REIC’s portfolio mix for our FY19E HK$283bn worth of assets Total portfolio GAV by usage Total Portfolio GAV by projects HK Hotel China Harbour City 5% HK Others 3% 3% Plaza HK HK Hotel Hollywood Others 5% 4% 9% HK Office Times Square 24% HK Retail 19% Harbour City 62% 66% Plaza Hollywood Times Square Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 2: Wharf REIC is the 3rd largest listed retail-focus landlord Exhibit 3: ... and 2nd largest listed HK landlord by size of investment For the exclusive use of [email protected] globally properties Global retail landlords market cap, as of last close PropCos’ HK investment properties’ 1-year-forward GAV estimates; CP=Car Park Market Cap (US$bn) (HK$mn) 50 45.7 HK retail HK office Hotels CP/Others 45 400,000 40 350,000 35 300,000 30 23.7 250,000 25 20.9 20.3 20 200,000 14.0 15 12.0 150,000 10 6.0 5.6 4.3 3.7 100,000 5 2.3 2.1 50,000 0 l l i l y y o d p n d T T C t l r I I a I a i a n o a i 0 C e u r b E i E s s t E a C l i M f l b l y P t s R R A n R a s y a s a u t l H d i n f t e r l o k U e t e i r t M p o J f a n T n L p a i a W a n u a m h L M t i h o C r C S W S e o A F Source: Datastream Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research n It is a spin-off from Wharf Holdings (0004.HK, Buy , closed at HK$25.45 on Apr 24, 2018) back in November 2017. According to the company, its predecessor was 25 April 2018 3 Goldman Sachs Wharf REIC (1997.HK) founded in 1886 and since then involved in a wide range of businesses including property development, rentals and ports among others. This spin-off exercise was a demerger to separate the Wharf group’s Hong Kong property investment business into a separate entity. Exhibit 4: Wharf REIC is a spinoff from Wharf Holdings to focus on HK investment properties Wheelock, Wharf and Wharf REIC structures before and after Nov 2017’s spinoff Wheelock and Wharf group structure Wheelock and Wharf group structure Before After spinoff Woo Family Woo Family 60.99% 60.99% Wheelock and Wheelock and Company Company (0020.HK)* (0020.HK)* 61.03% 61.03% 61.03% Wharf Holdings Wharf * Wharf REIC * (0004.HK)* HK & China HK & China China IP HK IP Ports Ports China IP HK IP DP DP * Denotes listed company. * Denotes listed company. Note: HK IP refers to Harbour City, Times Square, Plaza Hollywood, C Source: Company data, HKEx. A REIC but not a REIT n Less restricted: The company is naming itself as a “real estate investment company” (REIC) rather than a “real estate investment trust” (REIT) which is under the specific code regulated by Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Some of the differences among others for being a REIC rather than a REIT, are there is no - Minimum after-tax net income payout ratio of 90%; For the exclusive use of [email protected] o o Maximum asset allocations of 10% to under-development projects; o Maximum leverage ratio of 45% gross debt to total asset. n Payout commitment: Notwithstanding the aforementioned, we see the key difference for Wharf REIC to set themselves apart from other traditional non-REIT listed property companies is the commitment to a fixed dividend policy — to payout c.65% of their realised recurrent profit attributable to shareholders derived from Hong Kong investment properties and hotels. n Greenfield possible: Management guided that their intended use of the remaining 35% of earnings are debt repayment (at 20% net debt to equity as of 2017) and growth capex. Standing at only 20% net gearing as of 2017, and with no regulatory ceiling for the aforementioned nor allocations to under development projects, management shall have the flexibility to continue to look for investment opportunities going ahead, with a focus on Hong Kong investment properties (including greenfield sites). 25 April 2018 4 Goldman Sachs Wharf REIC (1997.HK) Exhibit 5: Wharf REIC had a 20% gearing ratio in FY17 Exhibit 6: We note that there are at least a few major commercial Companies’ net debt to equity ratio vs. ave finance cost, as of FY17 sites to be tendered in future Selected list of upcoming commercial sites potentially to be made available for tender by the HK government Net debt/Equity finance cost (RHS) Name Location Use GFA(sqft) 70% 5.0%
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