CURRICULUM VITAE

David H. Papell

June 2021

Address: Department of Economics University of Houston, Houston, TX 77204 E-mail: [email protected] Phone: (713) 743-3807

Current Position:

Joel W. Sailors Endowed Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Houston, 2002-2020

Previous Positions:

Professor, Department of Economics, University of Houston, 1995-2002

Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Houston, 1989-1995

Visiting Scholar, Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Spring 1990

Assistant Professor, University of Houston, 1984-1989

Visiting Assistant Professor, University of Virginia, Spring 1986

Assistant Professor, University of Florida, 1980-1984

Visiting Assistant Professor, Department of Finance, University of Pennsylvania, 1982-1983

Education:

Department of Economics, , Ph.D. 1981, M. Phil. 1979, M.A. 1976 School of International Affairs, Columbia University, 1974-1975 University of Pennsylvania, B.A. 1972

Publications:

“Policy Rules and Economic Performance,” (with Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy and Ruxandra Prodan), forthcoming, Journal of , June 2021

“Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity Redux,” (with Ruxandra Prodan), Journal of International Money and Finance, December 2020

“The Taylor Principles,” (with Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy and Ruxandra Prodan), Journal of Macroeconomics, December 2019

“The Yellen Rules,” (with Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy and Ruxandra Prodan), Journal of Macroeconomics, December 2017, 59-71.

“Taylor Rule Deviations and Out-of-Sample Exchange Rate Predictability,” (with Tanya Molodtsova and Onur Ince), Journal of International Money and Finance, 2016, 69, pp. 22- 44.

“Why was the Plaza Accord Unique,” (with Russell Green and Ruxandra Prodan), in Fred Bergsten and Russell Green, eds., International Monetary Cooperation: Lessons from the Plaza Accord After Thirty Years, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2016, 105- 133

“Policy Rule Legislation in Practice,” (with Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy and Ruxandra Prodan), in John Cochrane and John Taylor, eds., Central Bank Governance and Oversight Reform, Hoover Institution Press, 2016, 57-82

“Markov Switching and the Taylor Principle,” (with Christian Murray and Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 19, June 2015, 913-930

“Deviations from Rules-Based Policy and their Effects,” (with Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy and Ruxandra Prodan), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 49, December 2014, 4-18

“Long-Run Time Series Tests of Constant Steady-State Growth,” (with Ruxandra Prodan), Economic Modeling, 42, 2014, 464-474

“Median-Unbiased Estimation of Structural Change Models: An Application to Long-Run Real Exchange Rates,” (with Hatice Ozer Balli and Christian Murray), Applied Economics, 46, 2014, 3300-3311

“Taylor’s Rule versus Taylor Rules,” (with Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy), International Finance, 16:1, 2013, 71-93

“Taylor Rule Exchange Rate Forecasting During the Financial Crisis,” (with Tanya Molodtsova), in Francesco Giavazzi and Kenneth West, eds., International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012, 55-97

“The (Un)Reliability of Real-Time Output Gap Estimates with Revised Data,” (with Onur Ince), Economic Modeling 33, 2013,713-721

"Median-Unbiased Estimation in DF-GLS Regressions and the PPP Puzzle" (with Claude Lopez and Christian Murray), Applied Economics, February 2013, 455-464

“Taylor Rules and the Great Inflation,” (with Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy), Journal of Macroeconomics, December 2012, 903-918

“The Statistical Behavior of GDP after Financial Crises and Severe Recessions” (with Ruxandra Prodan), The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Special Issue: Long-Term Effects of the Great Recession, October 2012, Article 2, 1-29

“Convergence of Euro Area Inflation Rates” (with Claude Lopez), Journal of International Money and Finance, October 2012, 1440-1458.

“Taylor Rules and the Euro,” (with Tanya Molodtsova and Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy), Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, March-April 2011, 535-552

“Out-of-Sample Exchange Rate Predictability with Taylor Rule Fundamentals,” (with Tanya Molodtsova), Journal of International Economics, April 2009, 167-180.

“Taylor Rules and Real-Time Data: A Tale of Two Countries and One Exchange Rate,” (with Tanya Molodtsova and Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy), Journal of , 55, October 2008, S63-S79

“Restricted Structural Change and the Unit Root Hypothesis," (with Ruxandra Prodan), Economic Inquiry, October 2007, 834-853

“Are Real GDP Levels Trend, Difference, or Regime-Wise Trend Stationary? Evidence from Panel Data Tests Incorporating Structural Change,” (with Natalie Hegwood), Southern Economic Journal, July 2007, 104-113.

"Convergence to Purchasing Power Parity at the Commencement of the Euro" (with Claude Lopez), Review of International Economics, February 2007, 1-16.

"Purchasing Power Parity and Country Characteristics: Evidence from Panel Data Tests," (with Joseph Alba), Journal of Development Economics, January 2007, 240-251.

"Additional Evidence of Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity with Restricted Structural Change," (with Ruxandra Prodan), Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, August 2006, 1329-1349.

"The Panel Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, March 2006, 447-467

“Testing for Purchasing Power Parity Using Stationary Covariates,” (with Jomana Amara), Applied Financial Economics, Special Issue: Purchasing Power Parity and Real Exchange Rates, January 2006, 29-39

"Do Panels Help Resolve the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle?" (with Christian Murray), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, October 2005, 410-415

"The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle is Worse than You Think," (with Christian Murray), Empirical Economics, October 2005, 783-790

"State of the Art Unit Root Tests and Purchasing Power Parity" (with Claude Lopez and Christian Murray), Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, April 2005, 361-369

“The Uncertain Unit Root in U.S. Real GDP: Evidence with Restricted and Unrestricted Structural Change,” (with Ruxandra Prodan), Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, June 2004 (Part 1), 423-427

"Unit Roots, Postwar Slowdowns and Long-Run Growth: Evidence from Two Structural Breaks," (with Dan Ben-David and Robin Lumsdaine), Empirical Economics, February 2003, 303-319

"Purchasing Power Parity Under the Gold Standard," (with Natalie Hegwood), Southern Economic Journal, July 2002, 72-91

"The Great Appreciation, the Great Depreciation, and the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, May 2002, 51-82

"The Purchasing Power Parity Persistence Paradigm," (with Christian Murray), Journal of International Economics, February 2002, 1-19

"The Choice of Numeraire Currency in Panel Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," (with Hristos Theodoridis), Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, August 2001, 790-803

"Testing for Unit Roots in Panels in the Presence of Structural Change with an Application to OECD Unemployment," (with Christian Murray), in Badi Baltagi, ed., Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 15, Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels, JAI press, 2000, 223-238

"The Structure of Unemployment," (with Christian Murray and Hala Ghiblawi), Review of Economics and Statistics, May 2000, 309-315 "Some Evidence on the Continuity of the Growth Process Among the G7 Countries," (with Dan Ben-David), Economic Inquiry, April 2000, 320-330

"Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity with Short-Run Data: Evidence with a Null Hypothesis of Stationarity," (with Sarah Culver), Journal of International Money and Finance, October 1999, 751-768

"Convergence of International Output Movements: New Evidence for 16 OECD Countries," (with Qing Li), International Review of Economics and Finance, October 1999, 267-280

"Slowdowns and Meltdowns: Postwar Growth Evidence from 74 Countries," (with Dan Ben-David), Review of Economics and Statistics, November 1998, 561-571

"Quasi Purchasing Power Parity," (with Natalie Hegwood), International Journal of Finance and Economics, October 1998, 279-289

"Exchange Rate Determination and Inflation in Southeast Asian Countries," (with Joseph Alba), Journal of Development Economics, April 1998, 421-437

"Increasing Evidence of Purchasing Power Parity Over the Current Float," (with Hristos Theodoridis), Journal of International Money and Finance, February 1998, 41-50

"International Trade and Structural Change," (with Dan Ben-David), Journal of International Economics, November 1997, 513-523

"Searching for Stationarity: Purchasing Power Parity under the Current Float," Journal of International Economics, November 1997, 313-332

"Is There a Unit Root in the Inflation Rate?" (with Sarah Culver), Journal of Applied Econometrics, July-August 1997, 435-444

"Inflation Convergence Within the European Union: A Panel Data Analysis," (with Evzen Kocenda), International Journal of Finance and Economics, July 1997, 189-198

Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics", Journal of International Money and Finance, June 1997, 445-459

"Multiple Trend Breaks and the Unit Root Hypothesis," (with Robin Lumsdaine), Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1997, 212-218

"Are U.S. Regional Incomes Converging? Some Further Evidence," (with Michael Loewy), Journal of Monetary Economics, December 1996, 587-598

"The Great Wars, the Great Crash, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," (with Dan Ben-David), Journal of Monetary Economics, December 1995, 453-475

"Trend Breaks and the Unit Root Hypothesis for Newly Industrializing and Newly Exporting Countries," (with Joseph Alba), Review of International Economics, October 1995, 264-274

"Real Exchange Rates Under the Gold Standard: Can They be Explained by the Trend Break Model?" (with Sarah Culver), Journal of International Money and Finance, August 1995, 539-548

" in Japan: Internal or External Targets?," Japan and the World Economy, 1994, 359-374

"Exchange Rates and Prices: An Empirical Analysis," International Economic Review, May 1994, 397-410

"Exchange Rate and Price Dynamics Under Adaptive and Rational Expectations: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, August 1992, 382-396

"Can Equilibrium Models Explain Nominal Exchange Regime Non-Neutrality? Evidence from the European Monetary System," Journal of International Money and Finance, February 1992, 96-106

"Chaos Theory and Microeconomics: An Application to Model Specification and Hedonic Estimation," (with Steven Craig and Janet Kohlhase), Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1991, 208-215

"Monetary Policy in the Under Flexible Exchange Rates", American Economic Review, December 1989, 1106-1116

"Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics After a Decade of Floating", Journal of International Economics, November 1988, 303-317

"About Two Marks: Refugees and the Exchange Rate Before the Berlin Wall", (with Irwin Collier), American Economic Review, June 1988, 531-542

"Exchange Rate and Current Account Dynamics Under Rational Expectations: An Econometric Analysis," International Economic Review, October 1986, 583-599

"Activist Monetary Policy, Imperfect Capital Mobility, and the Overshooting Hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, May 1985, 219-240

"Activist Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Overshooting: The Deutsche Mark/Dollar Rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, December 1984, 293-310

"Anticipated and Unanticipated Disturbances: The Dynamics of the Exchange Rate and the Current Account," Journal of International Money and Finance, August 1984, 179-193

Working Papers:

“Policy Rules Consistent with the FOMC’s Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy,” (with Ruxandra Prodan), April 2021

“Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest in Real Time,” (with Sergiy Kasyanenko), February 2019

“Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: The Case of Israel,” (with Sophia Kazinnik), September 2020

“(Hawks versus Doves) versus (Rules versus Discretion), (with Klodiana Istrefi and Ruxandra Prodan), August 2019

Textbooks:

Robert Hall and David Papell, Macroeconomics: Growth, Fluctuations, and Policy, (Norton, 2005)

Study Guide to accompany Robert Hall and John Taylor: Macroeconomics, (Norton, 1986, 1988, 1991, 1993, and 1997).

Study Guide to accompany John Taylor: Economics, (Houghton Mifflin, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2003, 2006).

Book Reviews:

“Flexible Exchange Rates for a Stable World Economy” by Joseph Gagnon. Journal of Economic Literature, December 2012, 1114-1115.

Other Publications:

"Panel Evidence of Purchasing Power Parity Using Intranational and International Data," (with Sarah Culver), in International Macroeconomics: Recent Developments,” Nova Science Publishers, 2006, 39-51.

"Comments on Frydman and Goldberg," in P. Aghion, R. Frydman, J. Stiglitz and M. Woodford, eds, Knowledge, Information, and Expectations in Modern Macroeconomics: In Honor of Edmund S. Phelps, Press, 2003, 183-187.

"Exchange Rates and Prices for Six Industrialized Countries," in B. Poulson, ed., International Economic Integration: Lessons from the 1980s and Prospects for the 1990s, February 1991, 132-153.

Research Fields:

International Economics, Monetary Policy, Time Series Econometrics

Dissertation:

"An Econometric Portfolio Balance Model of an Open Economy with Rational Expectations," Sponsor: John Taylor

Papers Presented At Conferences:

American Economic Association Meetings, 1995, 1998, 1999, and 2011, Cato/Mercatus Conference on Monetary Policy, 2016, Duke University Conference on Exchange Rate Forecasting, 2011, Econometric Society Winter Meetings, 1981, 1983, 1986, and 1989, Econometric Society Summer Meetings, 1983 and 1994, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 2011, Fordham University, 2015, Hoover Institution, 2014 and 2015, International Association of Applied Econometrics, 2018 and 2019, National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, 1982, 1983, 2007, 2009, Southern Economic Association Meetings, 1988, 1996, and 1997, North American Economics and Finance Association World Congress, 1989, Econometric Society World Congress, 1990, Southeastern International Economics Association Meetings, 1990, Society for Economic Dynamics and Control, 1991, National Bureau of Economic Research Growth Conference, 1993, European Econometric Society Meetings, 1993, Texas Econometrics Camp, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2015, 2016, and 2017, International Economics and Finance Society, 2002, 2005, and 2007, International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2012.

Papers Presented at Seminars:

Bank of France, Baylor University, Brandeis University, Central Bank of Cyprus, City University of New York Graduate Center, Claremont Graduate School, Columbia University, Duke University, Emory University, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Indiana University, International Finance Division of the Federal Reserve Board, John Hopkins University, New York University, Ohio State University, Paris School of Economics, Southern Methodist University, Texas A&M University, UC Berkeley, UC Davis, UC Los Angeles, UC Santa Barbara, UC Santa Cruz, University of Cyprus, University of Florida, University of Houston, University of Miami, University of Michigan, University of Notre Dame, University of Oregon, University of Pennsylvania, University of South Carolina, University of Southern California, University of Virginia, University of Texas, University of Washington, and Vanderbilt University.

Editorial:

Associate Editor, Journal of International Economics, 1999-2006, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2001-2020, Empirical Economics, 2002-2012. Co-Editor, Southern Economic Journal, 1997, Associate Editor, 1998-2006. Editorial Board, Review of International Economics, 2006. Board of Editors, Economic Inquiry, 1993-1996.

Referee:

American Economic Review, Economic Journal, Economic Systems, Economica, Empirical Economics, European Economic Review, International Economic Review, International Journal of Finance and Economics, Journal of Applied Economics, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Econometrics, Journal of International Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Journal of Political Economy, Journal of Regional Science, Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics, National Science Foundation, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Review of International Economics, and Southern Economic Journal.

Grants:

National Science Foundation, Economics Program, "Purchasing Power Parity," June 2002 – May 2005, $247,415.

State of Texas Advanced Research Program, "Exchange Rates and Prices: An International Comparison," November 1989, $45,000.

Honors:

University of Houston Research Excellence Award, 2016 Economics Panel, National Science Foundation, 1999-2001. University of Houston/Amoco Teaching Excellence Award, 1995. Faculty Research Fellow, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1982-1985. Lehman Fellowship for Graduate Study 1974-1978. Deans List with Distinction, University of Pennsylvania, 1970-1971, 1971-1972.

Dissertations Advised:

Pierre Canac, "Essays on Macroeconomic Interdependence Policy Coordination", June 1987.

Jan Zizek, "The European Monetary System and the Traditional Criteria for Optimality of Currency Areas," April 1989.

Radhika Seshan, "Three Essays on Monetary Policy and Staggered Contracts," June 1990.

Robert Brown, "Essays on Exchange Rate, Price, and Output Dynamics," October 1990.

Sarah Culver, "Essays on Unit Roots in International Macroeconomic Time Series," April 1993.

Elizabeth Kiester, "Treasury Bill Auctions: Theory and Evidence," April 1993.

Joseph Alba, "Essays on Expectations Formation and Exchange Rate Dynamics," October 1993.

Nina Sarkar, "Target Zone Regime: A Beautiful Theory Killed by Ugly Facts?," December 1993.

Qing Li, "Essays on Cointegration and Convergence of International Output Movements," February 1995.

Lynn Schneider, "Essays on Import Demand and Long-Run Trade Relationships for the United States," August 1995.

Fang Fang Shen, "Three Essays on Time Series Analysis of Chinese Macroeconomic Variables," March 1996.

Evzen Kocenda, "Essays on Nonlinear Dynamics and Transition Economies," April 1996.

Michael Brandl, "Three Essays on Economic Growth and Real Wage Behavior," June 1996.

Hala Ghiblawi, "Three Essays on Structural Change in Postwar World Unemployment," August 1996.

Selim Osman, "Testing an ARCH Model with Regime Switching in Two Foreign Exchange Markets," December 1996.

Hristos Theodoridis, "Testing for Purchasing Power Parity with the use of Panel Data," July 1997.

Natalie Hegwood, "Three Essays on Structural Change in Long-Run Macroeconomic Time Series," May 1998.

Hala El-Ramly, "Essays on Testing for Unit Roots in Inflation Rates," September 1998.

Yibin Kang, "An Empirical Analysis of the Real Interest Rate," April 1999.

Panayiota Karamanou, "Monetary Policy Rules and Cointegration: An International Analysis of Inflation Targeting," August 1999.

Lin Yin, "Empirical Investigation on Nonlinear Aspects of Macroeconomic Time Series," December 2001.

Mxolisi Landu, Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Business Cycle Dynamics in Southern Africa: A Cross-Country Analysis,” May 2002.

Mary Campion, “The Impact of Macroeconomic and Financial Liberalization Policies on the Allocation of Financial Capital and Growth in Emerging Markets during the 1990s,” May 2002

Claude Lopez, “Improving the Measurement of Real Exchange Rate Persistence,” April 2003

Tim Hopper, “Linear and Nonlinear Dynamics of Real Exchange Rates,” May 2003

Samuel Koumkwa, “Dynamic Properties of Real Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan Africa,” May 2003.

Jesus Puente-Trevino, “The 1994 Mexican Crisis: A Stylized Cash-in-Advance Model with Financial Constraints,” November 2003.

Ruxandra Prodan, “Essays on Unit Roots, Restricted Structural Change, and Purchasing Power Parity,” April 2004.

Jomana Amara, “Essays on Exchange Rate Behavior,” April 2004.

Adriana Fernandez, “Three Essays on Currency Crises and Defensive Monetary Policy,” April 2005.

Murat Arslan, “Essays on Monetary Policy, Sticky Prices, and Sticky Information,” April 2006

Hatice Ozer-Balli, “Three Essays on Estimation of Economic Models,” April 2008

Tanya Molodtsova, “Out-of-Sample Exchange Rate Predictability wit Taylor Rule Fundamentals and Real-Time Data,” April 2008

Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, “Essays on Monetary Policy Evaluation wit Taylor Rules and Real-Time Data,” April 2008

Roberto Coronado, “Essays on the Mexican Economy: Business Cycles and Remittances, Monetary Policy and Taylor Rules, and Offshoring and Volatility,” April 2010

Amelie Carlton, “Essays on the Predictability of Oil Shocks and Yield Curves for Real-Time Output Growth,” April 2010

Onur Ince, “Essays on Exchange Rate Forecasting and Output Gap Calculation with RealTime Data,” April 2011

Michael Clark, “Essays on Macroeconomic Volatility and the Great Moderation,” April 2012

Teodora Stoica, “Essays on Macroeconomic Forecasting and the Business Cycle,” April 2012

Lena Ogrokhina, “Three Essays on Convergence and Persistence of Prices in the European Union,” May 2013

Gokcen Ogruk, “Essays on Carry Trade and Exchange Rate Forecasting,” May 2013

Jarrod Hunt, “Essays on Sovereign Debt and Default,” May 2014

Christopher Biolsi, “Essays on State Dependence in the Government Spending Multiplier,” May 2015

Amrita Dhar, “Essays on Capital Flows in Emerging Markets,” April 2016

Jacob Smith, “Trends and Cycles in Financial Markets,” April 2016

Celine Boulenger, “Two Essays on Climate Change in Developing Countries,” May 2017

Sophia Kazinnik, “Essays on Monetary Policy in Israel,” May 2017

Taylor Collins, “Three Essays in Applied Time Series Econometrics,” June 2017

Sergiy Kasyanenko, “Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest in Real Time,” April 2018

Lalita Thienprasiddhi, “Two Essays on Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates in Thailand,” April 2018

Teaching:

University of Houston International Monetary Economics, Macroeconomic Modeling and Forecasting, Monetary Policy, Research Workshop in Macroeconomics (Ph.D.), Macroeconomic Analysis (M.B.A.), Monetary Policy, International Monetary Economics, Intermediate Macroeconomics, Economics of Globalization, and Principles of Macroeconomics (undergraduate).

University of Virginia International Finance (Ph.D.) and Intermediate Macroeconomics (undergraduate)

University of Florida International Economic Relations and Macroeconomic Theory (Ph.D.) International Economic Relations and Intermediate Macroeconomics (undergraduate)

University of Pennsylvania. International Finance (M.B.A.) and Intermediate Macroeconomics (undergraduate)

Columbia University Intermediate Macroeconomics (School of International Affairs), Principles of Macroeconomics and Principles of Microeconomics (undergraduate)

University Service:

Chair, Department of Economics, 2002-2019

Graduate Director, Department of Economics, 1988-1989, 1991-2004.

Research Council, 2002-2010. Chair, 2007-2008. Vice-Chair, 2006-2007.

Faculty Senate, 1992-1994, 1995-1997, 2004-2006, 2010-2020

Chair, Dean's Review Committee, Bauer College of Business, 2007

Dean Search Committee, CLASS, 2009

Farfel Award Selection Committee, 2005-2006, 2007-2008

John and Rebecca Moores Professorship Selection Committee, 2003-2004, 2004-2005.

Chair, Graduate Curriculum Committee, College of Liberal Arts and Social Sciences, 2001- 2003

Faculty Affairs and Governance Committee, College of Liberal Arts and Social Sciences, 2001 2002

Task Force on Non-Tenure-Track Faculty, 2014-2015

Task Force on Promotion and Tenure, College of Liberal Arts and Social Sciences, 2000

Dean's Review Committee, College of Social Science, 1999

Promotion and Tenure Committee, College of Social Science, 1995-1996, 1996-1997

Secretary, Faculty Senate, 1993

Chair, Faculty Affairs Committee, Faculty Senate, 1994, 2006

Committee on Committees, Faculty Senate, 1995 and 1997

College of Social Science Curriculum Committee, 1992-1993.