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Declining Populations Workshop How many of the world's wader species are to-dateinformation on populationtrends is an essentialbasis declining, and where are the Globally Threatened for identifyingpriorities for conservationaction. This paper species? presentsthe results of a major collation and reanalysis of 1990s migratory wader populationdata for all countriesin Simon Delany Africa and Eurasia. Wetlands International; This review was carried out by the InternationalWader e-marl: Simon.Delany @wetlands. org StudyGroup between 1996 and2000. It updatesprevious es- timatesdating from the mid-1980s. We presentstatus infor- The publicationby WetlandsInternational in 2002 of Water- mation on 115 populationsof 49 species.Of thesewe have bird PopulationEstimates - third edition (WPE3) involved beenable to give sizeestimates (to varyingprecision) for 110 wide consultationwith population experts and provides a populations,1% populationthresholds (or provisionalthresh- usefulstarting point for the evaluationof numbersand popu- olds) for 102 populations,and indicationsof trendsbetween lation trendsof the world's waterbirds.About one quarterof the mid 1980s and mid 1990s for 70 populations.Compari- the speciesrecognised as "waterbirds"by WetlandsInterna- sons between flyways show that data quality is best for tional are waders,and informationis presentedin WPE3 on populationsusing the largely coastalEast Atlantic Flyway, all 209 of the world's waderspecies. Estimates are now avail- than for other flyways in the region:it has beenpossible to able for a majority (85%) of the world's waderpopulations, assessprecise trends for 78% of East Atlantic Flyway but populationtrends have only been estimatedfor 41% of populations,but for only 43% of the Black Sea/Mediterra- populations.At the global level, theseknown trendsbreak nean populationsand just 5% of West Asian/EastAfrican down asfollows: Increasing, 13%; Stable,39%; Decreasing, populations.It is difficult to draw conclusionson the over- 44%; Extinct, 4%. all statusof waders in Africa/Eurasia, since reliable estimates A total of 44 species(21% of all wader species)are rec- of population trends can be made for only 44 of the 115 ognisedas Globally Threatenedor Near-Threatenedunder populationsusing the region. There are, however, 2.5 times IUCN Criteria. A disproportionatenumber (72%) of these as many populationsin declineas thosethat are increasing: Globally Threatenedspecies have rangesof distributionin thereis a decreaseor possibledecrease in 20 populationsand Asia and Oceania. A high proportion (66%) of Globally an increaseor possibleincrease in eight, with 36 being sta- Threatenedspecies are sedentary,and a majority of these(21 ble or possibly stable. Furthermore,some populations are out of 29 species)are specialisedisland forms. Red Data lists known to be severelythreatened and in decline,notably Slen- producedby BirdLife Internationalon behalf of IUCN are der-billedCurlew Numeniustenuirostris and SociableLap- compiledat the specieslevel; more threatenedwader popu- wing Vanellusgregarius, and the two Canary Islandsraces lationswould be identifiedas deservingof conservationac- of Stone Curlews Burhinus oedicnemus. tion if theselists were compiled at the level of sub-species A review of progressin improving data and information or biogeographicpopulation. showsthat there has been significantimprovement with re- Most, but not all, Globally Threatenedspecies are known spectto some populations(especially knowledge of Euro- to be in decline, and Globally Threatenedspecies represent pean distribution of breeding waders and their population just underhalf of speciesknown to be in decline.Because of trends,particularly in the MediterraneanBasin and in Rus- specialefforts to identify and conserveGlobally Threatened sia). However, very little progresshas been made for many species,and because less numerous species are usually easier other priority areas,such as waderswintering on non-estua- to monitor, our informationabout populations and trendsis rine coastsor inland. Indeed, for 62 populations (57% of biasedin favour of globally threatenedspecies. Many other those considered)monitoring provision is not adequateto speciesand populationswhose trend is unknownat present provide even the most basic informationon trendsin abun- are likely to be declining,and expansionand refinementof dance.Only in 16 populations(15%) is there a soundbasis monitoringis necessaryto identify relatively numerousand for assessingchanges in populationsizes. For the remaining widespreadspecies which are neverthelessdeclining. 30 (28%) populations,monitoring provides some informa- tion althoughthis is usually far from adequatein extent or quality. For no biogeographicalpopulation is it currently Status of migratory wader populations in Africa possibleto assesstrends with any defineddegree of statisti- and Western Eurasia in the 1990s cal precision.This lack of monitoringprovision is a serious conservationdeficiency given not just the need to assess David Stroud, N.C. Davidson, R. West, D.A. Scott, population change at local and country scalesbut also to L. Haanstra & O. Thorup assessthe potential major impactspredicted from a chang- UK Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Monkstone ing globalclimate. The African-EurasianWaterbird Agree- House, City Road, Peterborough,UK; ment has highlightedmonitoring as a major priority for the e-marl: David.Stroud @jncc. gov. uk internationalconservation of waterbirdswithin the region. We hope this review will stimulateconcrete urgent actions Estimatesof the size of wader populationsneed to be regu- to this end. larly updatedfor usein flyway andsite conservation, and up- 13 Bulletin 101/102 August/December 2003 14 Wader Study Group Bullehn Status of wader populations on the Central/South Population trends: There is very little information on Asian flyway trendsin populationsize for the CentralAsian flyway. WPE3 Nick Davidson gives trendsfor only 14 populations(20%), and there is a "definitetrend" for only 12 of these(17%). Trend informa- Chemin des Jordils, 1261 Le Vaud, Switzerland; tion is availablefor only 2 (12%) of residentpopulations, of e-maih linda @iprolink. ch these,one is decreasingand the other stable.Overall, 50% of populationswith known trendsare decreasing.Four mi- Flyway characteristics: The Central/SouthAsian flyway gratorypopulations are increasing,but for two of these,the coverswader populationsbreeding in the central Siberian long-distancemigrants Black-tailed Godwit Limosalimosa arctic,boreal Russia and the centralAsian steppe(long and andRed-necked Stint Calidrisruficollis, only a smallpart of medium-distancemigrants), with short-distancemigrants and the relevant populationwinters on Central Asian flyway. residents breeding south of Himalayan mountain chain. Furthermore,the increasingtrend is not certainfor the short- Under currentpopulation delimitations there is considerable distancemigrant White-tailed Lapwing Vanellus leucurus. overlap of migratorypopulations with the West Asian/East Only one population(Pied Avocet Recurvirostraavosetta) African flyway and somewith the East Asian/Australasian wholly dependenton the flyway is increasing.It seemsthat flyway. The staging areas for long and medium distance perhaps3-4 times as many populationson the flyway are migrantsare poorly known, but are believedto be chiefly decreasingas are increasing. inland freshwater and saline wetlands in Central Asian coun- Globally threatened speciesand populationsof conser- tries. Wintering areasare mostly coastalintertidal wetlands vation concern: There are six Red Listed specieson the from Pakistaneast to Myanmar, andit is possiblethat some flyway, from differentbreeding areas, with differentmigra- birdscontinue on to IndianOcean islands. Major coastalwin- tory strategies(resident to long-distancemigrant), and using tering areasinclude the Indus Delta (Pakistan)and the NW differentwintering habitats. These are the Critically endan- Indian coast,the SW Indian/N Sri Lankan coast,the Bang- gered residentJerdon's CourserRhinoptilus bitorquatus; ladeshcoast and probablydeltas on the coastof Myanmar. endangeredNordmann' s GreenshankTringa guttifer (medium- This is the shortestof all wader flyways, lying wholly north distancemigrant); the vulnerableWood Snipe Gallinago of the Equator. nemoricola(short-distance migrant), SociableLapwing V. Number of speciesand populations:The flyway analy- gregarius (medium-distancemigrant) and Spoon-billed sesare derived from Waterbird Population Estimates3rd SandpiperEurynorhynchus pygmaeus (long-distance mi- Edition (2002) (WPE3). There are 59 wader specieson the grant,now believedto be in seriousand rapid decline - see flyway, of which49 aremigrant or partlymigrant ("migrant" the abstractof Tomkovich& Syroechkovski);and the near- includesspecies/populations with partlyresident, partly short- threatenedAsiatic DowitcherLimnodromus semipalmatus distancemigrant status), and 10 arewholly resident. There are (medium-distancemigrant). There are 14 populationsof 7 ! biogeographicpopulations of which54 aremigrant and 17 "conservationconcern" (i.e. <25,000 birdsand/or in decline). resident.In termsof numbersof speciesand populations, this Theseinclude the populationsof the six globallythreatened is a considerablymore diverse flyway in comparisonwith any species.In addition, the Long-billed Plover Charadrius of the African-Eurasianflyways. The flyway is dominatedby placidushas a small, (<10,000 birds) decliningpopulation ploversand sandpipers (63% of populations).Many (47%) of that shouldbe
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