______Walrus Research
Classical Station Trends National AudiGraphics
4th Report - Fall 2017
Reality has a way of eventually getting your attention QUESTIONS
Is the classical station audience growing nationally? Page 3
Which stations generate most of the audience? Page 9
How dedicated are listeners to the classical format? Page 15
Has there been any improvement in core, loyalty, TSL? Page 19
Any changes in the demographics of classical stations? Page 23
What are the implications for classical public stations? Page 26
Classical Stations NAG Fall 2017 Walrus Research 2
4th REPORT FALL 2017
SRG is leading a national initiative of PPM Markets Smaller Markets classical station partners – Classical Music Rising. Phoenix KBAQ Boise KBSU Salt Lake KBYU Colorado Springs KCME This is our fourth research report on Las Vegas KCNV Little Rock KLRE the classical audience, with station San Francisco KDFC Iowa City Iowa Public Radio trends from 2012 through 2017. Seattle KING Tucson KUAT Austin KMFA Oklahoma City KUCO
San Antonio KPAC Omaha KVNO National AudiGraphics gives us Portland KQAC Eugene KWAX access to each station’s total Minn-St Paul KSJN Tulsa KWTU audience, including listeners who Los Angeles KUSC Berrien Springs WAUS reside beyond the metro. Denver KVOD Fort Wayne WBNI Sacramento KXPR Syracuse WCNY For statewide networks such as Baltimore WBJC Dayton WDPR Minnesota, NAG combines all Cleveland WCLV Harrisonburg WEMC audience into a single estimate. Raleigh-Durham WCPE Tallahassee WFSQ Boston WCRB Interlochen WIAA AudiGraphics also captures nearly Charlotte WDAV Richmond WKYL all listening to the primary streams Washington WETA Albany WMHT of these stations, including any Nashville WFCL Monroe WMNR Cincinnati WGUC Buffalo WNED audience in distant markets. Norfolk WHRO Rockford WNIU Columbus WOSA Burlington Vermont Public Radio SRG specified this list of 53 public Pittsburgh WQED Chattanooga WSMC classical stations. Some are based in New York WQXR Sarasota WSMR PPM markets, while smaller markets Detroit WRCJ Louisville WUOL still depend on diary measurement. Philadelphia WRTI West Windsor WWFM Rochester WXXI
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AQH LISTENING
AQH is the number of persons Classical Stations Listening Trend listening in a typical quarter hour, Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m across Monday-Sunday 6am-12m. PPM Markets Smaller Markets For National AudiGraphics, which 250,000 includes both PPM and diary measurement, the demo is 12 plus. 200,000 We analyzed a constant set of 153,500 153,000 stations trended over six years. 142,000 142,300 143,500 150,000 130,000
WCLV did not subscribe to the 100,000
ratings in 2012, so it is not included AQH Persons in the trend charts in this report. 54,500 50,500 52,700 52,300 49,100 48,400 50,000 As of Fall 2017 we found 143,500 AQH persons listening to classical 0 stations based in PPM markets. SP12 FA12 SP13 FA13 SP14 FA14 SP15 FA15 SP16 FA16 SP17 FA17 National AudiGraphics/Nielsen Audio Stations in smaller markets added 48,400 AQH persons listening. In Fall 2017 the AQH audience in PPM markets was 143,500 – about Both trend lines are basically flat, the same number as in Fall 2016 and Fall 2015. with no significant growth or loss. 48,400 persons were listening to stations based in smaller markets.
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LISTENING COMBINED
This chart shows the combined total Classical Stations Listening Trend classical listening across PPM and Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m smaller markets. PPM Markets Smaller Markets Over the last six years the classical 250,000 station audience has hovered around 204,000 205,700 200,000 AQH persons. 194,300 191,400 191,900 200,000 184,500 50,500 52,700 As of Fall 2017 the number was 52,300 49,100 48,400 191,900 persons listening. 150,000 54,500
The national audience to public 100,000
classical stations has been stable, AQH Persons 153,500 153,000 143,500 with no significant growth or loss. 130,000 142,000 142,300 50,000 AQH is the product of cume – how many persons are reached – as well 0 as time spent listening to the station. SP12 FA12 SP13 FA13 SP14 FA14 SP15 FA15 SP16 FA16 SP17 FA17 National AudiGraphics/Nielsen Audio Let’s look at the trend in reach.
Adding AQH numbers from diary and PPM markets may be problematic.
The diary method reports higher TSL by classical station listeners, which results in higher reported AQH listening.
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CUME LISTENERS
How many listeners are reached by Classical Stations Reach Trend public radio classical stations? Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m
As of Fall 2017 the classical stations PPM Markets Smaller Markets based in PPM markets reached 7,500,000 5,237,900 weekly cume persons.
5,520,200 5,482,500 5,450,100 That number was down from Fall 5,247,400 5,140,200 5,237,900 2016 but a little up from Fall 2015. 5,000,000
The classical stations in PPM markets reach over 5 million listeners each week. But there has 2,500,000 been no growth in that number. Weekly Cume Persons 1,036,600 1,016,200 1,033,100 1,013,100 1,007,300 979,100 The smaller market stations reach Some one million listeners. The trend line Cume May Be 0 is consistent going back to 2012. Duplicated SP12 FA12 SP13 FA13 SP14 FA14 SP15 FA15 SP16 FA16 SP17 FA17 National AudiGraphics/Nielsen Audio Remember that a single occasion of exposure will qualify an individual for your station’s weekly cume. The number of listeners reached has trended basically flat in both PPM and smaller markets. Extremely light users are unlikely to send money to stations. Listeners may reside in a location within the coverage area of two or more classical stations. Accordingly, some of the classical cume in this chart may be duplicated.
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COMBINED CUME
Combined, this set of classical Classical Stations Reach Trend stations reached 6.2 million listeners Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m each week, as of Fall 2017. PPM Markets Smaller Markets That number was down from Fall 7,500,000 2016 but a little better than 2015. 6,536,400 6,515,600 6,284,000 6,457,400 6,153,300 6,217,000 1,016,200 1,033,100 1,007,300 Classical stations in PPM markets 1,036,600 1,013,100 979,100 account for 84 percent of listeners. 5,000,000
Over these years, for this set of classical stations, the number of 5,520,200 5,482,500 listeners reached has not changed 2,500,000 5,247,400 5,140,200 5,450,100 5,237,900 significantly in either PPM or diary markets. Weekly Cume Persons Some Cume May Be 0 Duplicated SP12 FA12 SP13 FA13 SP14 FA14 SP15 FA15 SP16 FA16 SP17 FA17 National AudiGraphics/Nielsen Audio
Weekly cume simply counts the reach of a station – even a single occasion, without taking into account TSL.
As of 2017, the combined reach of these public radio classical stations was 6.2 million listeners, although the figure has topped 6.5 million in previous years.
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QUESTIONS
Is the classical station audience growing nationally? Page 3
Which stations generate most of the audience? Page 9
How dedicated are listeners to the classical format? Page 15
Has there been any improvement in core, loyalty, TSL? Page 19
Any changes in the demographics of classical stations? Page 23
What are the implications for classical public stations? Page 26
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TOP THREE
Which classical stations drive the Top Three Stations Generate national audience? Quarter of Classical Listening Here are the top three stations, as Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m ranked by their Fall 2017 AQH.
KUSC accounts for 11 percent of KUSC 11 the national audience for classical public radio stations. WQXR 9 KUSC, WQXR and KDFC are based in very large markets – Los Fall 2017 KDFC 6 Angeles, New York and San National Francisco. AudiGraphics Nielsen Audio Together they generate one quarter of the national listening audience.
Yet these three stations have limited impact in their own markets. As of Fall 2017, KUSC ranked 25th in metro Los Angeles with a 1.6 share KUSC generated 11 percent of the national audience as of Fall 2017. among persons 12 plus. Keep in mind there are 53 classical public radio stations in this study. KUSC’s listening audience is large because its FM signals cover the huge LA metro and beyond.
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TOP EIGHT
Half of the classical station audience Top Eight Stations Generate is generated by eight stations, all based in PPM markets. Half of Classical Listening Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m WRTI benefits from the large population in Philadelphia, as does KBAQ in Phoenix. KUSC 11
Washington, Minneapolis and Boston are not as large but enjoy WQXR 9 highly educated populations. Fall 2017 KDFC 6 National Previous studies have established WRTI 5 that education predicts audience AudiGraphics levels for classical stations. Nielsen Audio KSJN 5 So, to build the national audience, there are two strategic options: WETA 4 KBAQ 4 WCRB 4 • Classical stations must become more competitive in very large markets like LA. Of the 53 classical stations, 8 generate half of the national audience.
• Focus on markets with high
education levels, which are fertile ground for public radio.
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LOS ANGELES NEW YORK
How are we doing in Los Angeles Leading Stations Listening Trend and New York? Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m
KUSC’s AQH listening audience KUSC WQXR peaked back in Fall 2013 with 25,900 30,000 persons. 25,900 23,300 The Fall 2017 number is 21,900. 21,900 20,000 23,500 20,000 19,100 Over the last three years, 2015-2017, 19,400 16,700 the New York station has dropped 18,000 16,600 16,700 to a lower level of audience. 14,300
AQH Persons 10,000 For WQXR the Fall 2017 number is 16,700 persons listening.
Audience estimates are based on 0 sampling and can bounce from SP12 FA12 SP13 FA13 SP14 FA14 SP15 FA15 SP16 FA16 SP17 FA17 survey to survey. National AudiGraphics/Nielsen Audio
Yet neither of these very large market stations has been growing Neither KUSC nor WNYC has been growing AQH audience. AQH audience.
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KDFC WRTI KSJN WETA
Leading Stations Listening Trend Leading Stations Listening Trend Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m KDFC WRTI KSJN WETA 30,000 30,000
20,000 20,000 15,300 15,400 13,200 13,700 12,900 11,900 11,100 11,400 10,900 10,000 9,500 AQH Persons 10,000 AQH Persons 10,000 9,100 9,500 9,900 9,700 9,300 9,300 8,900 8,600 7,900 8,300 7,800 7,700 8,100
0 0 SP12 FA12 SP13 FA13 SP14 FA14 SP15 FA15 SP16 FA16 SP17 FA17 SP12 FA12 SP13 FA13 SP14 FA14 SP15 FA15 SP16 FA16 SP17 FA17 National AudiGraphics/Nielsen Audio National AudiGraphics/Nielsen Audio
KDFC requires three FM frequencies to cover the greater KSJN feeds multiple transmitters around the state of San Francisco area. Its AQH audience has hovered Minnesota. Its trend has been flat, around 8,000. around 10,000 persons listening. WETA illustrates how Nielsen ratings can bounce, in this WRTI has been running between 11,000 and 13,000 case due to reported time spent listening. persons listening – with no significant change. Recall that AQH is the product of TSL and the number of weekly cume listeners. For a couple years WETA was benefiting from high TSL, which drove AQH up to 15,000. Yet over the longer term, WETA held to 10,000.
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KBAQ WCRB
KBAQ has grown the classical Leading Stations Listening Trend audience in Phoenix. Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m
Back in Fall 2012 the AQH audience KBAQ WCRB consisted of 1,600 persons listening. 30,000
By Fall 2016 KBAQ had grown to 5,300 persons listening. And the most recent number is 8,400 AQH. 20,000
In Boston, WCRB has shown some improvement.
AQH Persons 10,000 8,800 8,400 7,300 Back in 2012 and 2013 WCRB was 6,200 serving between 4,000 and 5,000 4,600 4,200 7,400 persons listening. Now the station is 5,300 3,700 in the range of 7,000 to 8,000 AQH. 2,800 3,400 0 1,600 SP12 FA12 SP13 FA13 SP14 FA14 SP15 FA15 SP16 FA16 SP17 FA17 National AudiGraphics/Nielsen Audio
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QUESTIONS
Is the classical station audience growing nationally? Page 3
Which stations generate most of the audience? Page 9
How dedicated are listeners to the classical format? Page 15
Has there been any improvement in core, loyalty, TSL? Page 19
Any changes in the demographics of classical stations? Page 23
What are the implications for classical public stations? Page 26
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CORE and LOYALTY
Core listeners are a subset of your Core and Loyalty of Classical Stations weekly cume. They use the classical Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m station as their first choice. Thus, Fall 2017 National AudiGraphics/Nielsen Audio they are most likely to send money. PPM Markets Smaller Markets Loyalty is an audience estimate that 60 was invented for public radio. If a listener uses your station for 3 hours 50 per week, yet spends 10 hours using radio, the listener is 30 percent loyal. 40
Each marker on this chart is one of 30 our classical stations. 20
Loyalty (Percent) • We see that core composition 10 and loyalty are strongly related. 0 That makes sense. Having more 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 core listeners means your overall Core Cume (Percent) audience is going to be more loyal.
• It appears that listeners are more The horizontal axis is core cume – the percent of weekly listeners that dedicated in the smaller markets. are core, using your station as their first choice.
The vertical axis is loyalty – listening to the classical station as percent That is, the markers for smaller of all radio use by the station’s listeners. markets cluster in the upper right, stronger in loyalty and core cume.
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TYPICAL CORE and LOYALTY
In a PPM market, the typical Core and Loyalty of Classical Stations classical station generates an Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m audience that is 26 percent loyal. Fall 2017 National AudiGraphics/Nielsen Audio
But in smaller markets typical loyalty PPM Markets Smaller Markets is reported to be 35 percent. 60
In a PPM market, the core cume 50 composition is 33 percent. But it is 40 percent in smaller diary markets. 40 Core Cume 40 % Loyalty 35 % One might spin a theory about the 30 relative value of classical music in Core Cume 33 % 20 Loyalty 26 %
smaller markets with fewer cultural Loyalty (Percent) options. But the explanation is two 10 different Nielsen methods. 0 Diary keepers usually report more 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 TSL to stations, higher than TSL Core Cume (Percent) found by the newer PPM system.
For example, a classical fan might To evaluate the performance of your classical station, first consider the write in continuous listening for system of audience measurement. several hours. But a dispassionate meter would document the authentic In a PPM market 26 percent loyalty would be average performance. patterns of daily life. In a smaller diary market average loyalty would be 35 percent.
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TIME SPENT LISTENING
Here’s the same chart with the Time Spent Listening of Classical Stations addition of a 3rd variable – TSL. Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m
Fall 2017 National AudiGraphics/Nielsen Audio The size of each bubble represents time spent listening. PPM Markets Smaller Markets 60 In PPM markets an average listener uses the classical station for 3 hours 50 20 minutes per week. 40 Core Cume 40 % According to the diary in smaller Loyalty 35 % markets, the typical TSL is 6:09. 30 TSL 6:09 Core Cume 33 % 20 Loyalty 26 %
That is a huge difference. Loyalty (Percent) TSL 3:20 10 For the critical benchmarks of TSL, loyalty and core composition, it is 0 not valid to mix PPM markets with 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 smaller diary markets. Core Cume (Percent)
In a PPM market, compare your core cume, loyalty and TSL only to the average for classical stations in PPM markets.
In diary markets, to evaluate classical station performance, the standards are different
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QUESTIONS
Is the classical station audience growing nationally? Page 3
Which stations generate most of the audience? Page 9
How dedicated are listeners to the classical format? Page 15
Has there been any improvement in core, loyalty, TSL? Page 19
Any changes in the demographics of classical stations? Page 23
What are the implications for classical public stations? Page 26
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CORE TREND
This chart shows the trend in core Core Cume Trend composition over six years. Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m
In PPM markets the average has PPM Markets Smaller Markets hovered right around 33 percent. 60
That means 33 percent of their 50 listeners use the station as first 39 40 choice. They are potential givers. 40 37 37 37 38
In smaller markets the average has 30 34 35 33 hovered just below 40 percent. 31 32 32 20 For both, the trend lines are flat. Core Cume (Percent) 10 Given that the number of weekly cume listeners has run generally flat, 0 this means that the number of core SP12 FA12 SP13 FA13 SP14 FA14 SP15 FA15 SP16 FA16 SP17 FA17 listeners – potential givers – has not National AudiGraphics/Nielsen Audio increased.
There has been no general improvement in core cume composition, as measured by PPM or the diary system.
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LOYALTY TREND
As of Fall 2017, the typical classical Loyalty Trend listener in a PPM market is 26 Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m percent loyal. PPM Markets Smaller Markets That means the listener spends 74 60 percent of weekly radio time using other radio stations. 50
In a smaller market, the typical 40 35 35 35 loyalty to a classical station is 35 34 33 34 percent. 30
The point of this trend chart is that 27 27 26 26 20 23 24 classical listeners are not changing in Loyalty (Percent) their loyalty to the station. 10
0 SP12 FA12 SP13 FA13 SP14 FA14 SP15 FA15 SP16 FA16 SP17 FA17 National AudiGraphics/Nielsen Audio
No improvement or loss in the loyalty of classical listeners.
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TSL TREND
Core, loyalty and time spent listening Time Spent Listening Trend are related – all are measures of Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m listener dedication to the format. PPM Markets Smaller Markets Spring 2012 to Fall 2017, there has 12:00 been no significant change in TSL to the average classical station. 9:36
7:12 6:22 6:16 6:32 6:16 5:58 6:04
4:48 Hours: Minutes 3:21 3:17 3:26 3:20 2:24 2:55 3:14
0:00 SP12 FA12 SP13 FA13 SP14 FA14 SP15 FA15 SP16 FA16 SP17 FA17 National AudiGraphics/Nielsen Audio
Reported time spent listening is higher in smaller markets, but both of the trend lines have been consistent.
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QUESTIONS
Is the classical station audience growing nationally? Page 3
Which stations generate most of the audience? Page 9
How dedicated are listeners to the classical format? Page 15
Has there been any improvement in core, loyalty, TSL? Page 19
Any changes in the demographics of classical stations? Page 23
What are the implications for classical public stations? Page 26
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MEDIAN AGE
How old is the classical audience? Median Age Trend
Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m This chart trends median age. PPM Markets Smaller Markets Half of the AQH listening audience 75 is younger than the median. 66 67 67 66 65 64 The top line for smaller markets 63 hovers around 66 years old. 62 62 61 59 60 PPM stations appear to be a few 50 years younger – around 62.
Median Age That minor difference is another artifact of measurement. The PPM system picks up lighter listeners in the cume, who tend to be younger. 25 SP12 FA12 SP13 FA13 SP14 FA14 SP15 FA15 SP16 FA16 SP17 FA17 All classical stations have to handle National AudiGraphics/Nielsen Audio the reality of an audience divided between two life stages – those who are still working vs those retired. The median classical listener is transitioning into retirement.
That means half the audience may be employed and commuting, while the other half may have more time to listen at home.
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BLACK and HISPANIC
Nielsen has designed complicated Ethnic Trend procedures to identify and sample Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m Black and Hispanic audience. Black Hispanic This chart trends those audience 100 estimates for classical stations in PPM markets. 75 As of Fall 2017, Hispanics account for 9 percent of the AQH audience. 50 Blacks generate 5 percent.
Percent AQH There has been no variation in 25 minority composition.
7 7 8 9 7 8 0 5 5 6 4 5 5 SP12 FA12 SP13 FA13 SP14 FA14 SP15 FA15 SP16 FA16 SP17 FA17 National AudiGraphics/Nielsen Audio
Nielsen breaks out Black and Hispanic respondents.
These numbers are based on PPM markets only.
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QUESTIONS
Is the classical station audience growing nationally? Page 3
Which stations generate most of the audience? Page 9
How dedicated are listeners to the classical format? Page 15
Has there been any improvement in core, loyalty, TSL? Page 19
Any changes in the demographics of classical stations? Page 23
What are the implications for classical public stations? Page 26
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IMPLICATIONS
Nearly 200,000 persons are listening to a public radio About the Sample classical station during a typical quarter hour – 150,000 of those in large PPM markets. This study focuses on multi-year audience trends for the classical format. The sample is a constant set of public It can be said that the stations reach over 6 million radio stations that devote 70 percent or more of their classical listeners, but that includes some very light users. schedule from 6am to midnight to classical music.
There has been no significant growth or loss of the overall Some classical stations are not included because their classical audience from Spring 2012 to Fall 2017, trended service launched after the study period began or their data over a constant set of stations. was not acquired under public radio’s arrangement with Nielsen for part of the study period. Eight stations in large markets account for half of the national listening. Some stations devote 70 percent or more of their schedule to classical music – our classical format threshold – but Every classical station, large or small, must strive to build also carry one or more NPR news magazines. To keep the audience loyalty, core composition and time spent focus squarely on classical music, these stations were also listening. Personal importance leads to listener support. not included.
TSL is driven by occasions of tune in. We want those listeners within our weekly cume to come back more often, returning for another listening occasion. ______
Walrus Research is an independent audience research firm with an established record of quantitative and qualitative projects for public radio stations, national producers and networks. Non-proprietary publications for major research projects are available at www.WalrusResearch.com.
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