________________________________________________________________________________________________ Walrus Research Classical Station Trends National AudiGraphics 4th Report - Fall 2017 Reality has a way of eventually getting your attention QUESTIONS Is the classical station audience growing nationally? Page 3 Which stations generate most of the audience? Page 9 How dedicated are listeners to the classical format? Page 15 Has there been any improvement in core, loyalty, TSL? Page 19 Any changes in the demographics of classical stations? Page 23 What are the implications for classical public stations? Page 26 Classical Stations NAG Fall 2017 Walrus Research 2 4th REPORT FALL 2017 SRG is leading a national initiative of PPM Markets Smaller Markets classical station partners – Classical Music Rising. Phoenix KBAQ Boise KBSU Salt Lake KBYU Colorado Springs KCME This is our fourth research report on Las Vegas KCNV Little Rock KLRE the classical audience, with station San Francisco KDFC Iowa City Iowa Public Radio trends from 2012 through 2017. Seattle KING Tucson KUAT Austin KMFA Oklahoma City KUCO San Antonio KPAC Omaha KVNO National AudiGraphics gives us Portland KQAC Eugene KWAX access to each station’s total Minn-St Paul KSJN Tulsa KWTU audience, including listeners who Los Angeles KUSC Berrien Springs WAUS reside beyond the metro. Denver KVOD Fort Wayne WBNI Sacramento KXPR Syracuse WCNY For statewide networks such as Baltimore WBJC Dayton WDPR Minnesota, NAG combines all Cleveland WCLV Harrisonburg WEMC audience into a single estimate. Raleigh-Durham WCPE Tallahassee WFSQ Boston WCRB Interlochen WIAA AudiGraphics also captures nearly Charlotte WDAV Richmond WKYL all listening to the primary streams Washington WETA Albany WMHT of these stations, including any Nashville WFCL Monroe WMNR Cincinnati WGUC Buffalo WNED audience in distant markets. Norfolk WHRO Rockford WNIU Columbus WOSA Burlington Vermont Public Radio SRG specified this list of 53 public Pittsburgh WQED Chattanooga WSMC classical stations. Some are based in New York WQXR Sarasota WSMR PPM markets, while smaller markets Detroit WRCJ Louisville WUOL still depend on diary measurement. Philadelphia WRTI West Windsor WWFM Rochester WXXI Classical Stations NAG Fall 2017 Walrus Research 3 AQH LISTENING AQH is the number of persons Classical Stations Listening Trend listening in a typical quarter hour, Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m across Monday-Sunday 6am-12m. PPM Markets Smaller Markets For National AudiGraphics, which 250,000 includes both PPM and diary measurement, the demo is 12 plus. 200,000 We analyzed a constant set of 153,500 153,000 stations trended over six years. 142,000 142,300 143,500 150,000 130,000 WCLV did not subscribe to the 100,000 ratings in 2012, so it is not included AQH Persons in the trend charts in this report. 54,500 50,500 52,700 52,300 49,100 48,400 50,000 As of Fall 2017 we found 143,500 AQH persons listening to classical 0 stations based in PPM markets. SP12 FA12 SP13 FA13 SP14 FA14 SP15 FA15 SP16 FA16 SP17 FA17 National AudiGraphics/Nielsen Audio Stations in smaller markets added 48,400 AQH persons listening. In Fall 2017 the AQH audience in PPM markets was 143,500 – about Both trend lines are basically flat, the same number as in Fall 2016 and Fall 2015. with no significant growth or loss. 48,400 persons were listening to stations based in smaller markets. Classical Stations NAG Fall 2017 Walrus Research 4 LISTENING COMBINED This chart shows the combined total Classical Stations Listening Trend classical listening across PPM and Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m smaller markets. PPM Markets Smaller Markets Over the last six years the classical 250,000 station audience has hovered around 204,000 205,700 200,000 AQH persons. 194,300 191,400 191,900 200,000 184,500 50,500 52,700 As of Fall 2017 the number was 52,300 49,100 48,400 191,900 persons listening. 150,000 54,500 The national audience to public 100,000 classical stations has been stable, AQH Persons 153,500 153,000 143,500 with no significant growth or loss. 130,000 142,000 142,300 50,000 AQH is the product of cume – how many persons are reached – as well 0 as time spent listening to the station. SP12 FA12 SP13 FA13 SP14 FA14 SP15 FA15 SP16 FA16 SP17 FA17 National AudiGraphics/Nielsen Audio Let’s look at the trend in reach. Adding AQH numbers from diary and PPM markets may be problematic. The diary method reports higher TSL by classical station listeners, which results in higher reported AQH listening. Classical Stations NAG Fall 2017 Walrus Research 5 CUME LISTENERS How many listeners are reached by Classical Stations Reach Trend public radio classical stations? Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m As of Fall 2017 the classical stations PPM Markets Smaller Markets based in PPM markets reached 7,500,000 5,237,900 weekly cume persons. 5,520,200 5,482,500 5,450,100 That number was down from Fall 5,247,400 5,140,200 5,237,900 2016 but a little up from Fall 2015. 5,000,000 The classical stations in PPM markets reach over 5 million listeners each week. But there has 2,500,000 been no growth in that number. Weekly Cume Persons 1,036,600 1,016,200 1,033,100 1,013,100 1,007,300 979,100 The smaller market stations reach Some one million listeners. The trend line Cume May Be 0 is consistent going back to 2012. Duplicated SP12 FA12 SP13 FA13 SP14 FA14 SP15 FA15 SP16 FA16 SP17 FA17 National AudiGraphics/Nielsen Audio Remember that a single occasion of exposure will qualify an individual for your station’s weekly cume. The number of listeners reached has trended basically flat in both PPM and smaller markets. Extremely light users are unlikely to send money to stations. Listeners may reside in a location within the coverage area of two or more classical stations. Accordingly, some of the classical cume in this chart may be duplicated. Classical Stations NAG Fall 2017 Walrus Research 6 COMBINED CUME Combined, this set of classical Classical Stations Reach Trend stations reached 6.2 million listeners Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m each week, as of Fall 2017. PPM Markets Smaller Markets That number was down from Fall 7,500,000 2016 but a little better than 2015. 6,536,400 6,515,600 6,457,400 6,284,000 6,153,300 6,217,000 1,016,200 1,033,100 1,007,300 Classical stations in PPM markets 1,036,600 1,013,100 979,100 account for 84 percent of listeners. 5,000,000 Over these years, for this set of classical stations, the number of 5,520,200 5,482,500 listeners reached has not changed 2,500,000 5,247,400 5,140,200 5,450,100 5,237,900 significantly in either PPM or diary markets. Weekly Cume Persons Some Cume May Be 0 Duplicated SP12 FA12 SP13 FA13 SP14 FA14 SP15 FA15 SP16 FA16 SP17 FA17 National AudiGraphics/Nielsen Audio Weekly cume simply counts the reach of a station – even a single occasion, without taking into account TSL. As of 2017, the combined reach of these public radio classical stations was 6.2 million listeners, although the figure has topped 6.5 million in previous years. Classical Stations NAG Fall 2017 Walrus Research 7 QUESTIONS Is the classical station audience growing nationally? Page 3 Which stations generate most of the audience? Page 9 How dedicated are listeners to the classical format? Page 15 Has there been any improvement in core, loyalty, TSL? Page 19 Any changes in the demographics of classical stations? Page 23 What are the implications for classical public stations? Page 26 Classical Stations NAG Fall 2017 Walrus Research 8 TOP THREE Which classical stations drive the Top Three Stations Generate national audience? Quarter of Classical Listening Here are the top three stations, as Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m ranked by their Fall 2017 AQH. KUSC accounts for 11 percent of KUSC 11 the national audience for classical public radio stations. WQXR 9 KUSC, WQXR and KDFC are based in very large markets – Los Fall 2017 KDFC 6 Angeles, New York and San National Francisco. AudiGraphics Nielsen Audio Together they generate one quarter of the national listening audience. Yet these three stations have limited impact in their own markets. As of Fall 2017, KUSC ranked 25th in metro Los Angeles with a 1.6 share KUSC generated 11 percent of the national audience as of Fall 2017. among persons 12 plus. Keep in mind there are 53 classical public radio stations in this study. KUSC’s listening audience is large because its FM signals cover the huge LA metro and beyond. Classical Stations NAG Fall 2017 Walrus Research 9 TOP EIGHT Half of the classical station audience Top Eight Stations Generate is generated by eight stations, all based in PPM markets. Half of Classical Listening Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m WRTI benefits from the large population in Philadelphia, as does KBAQ in Phoenix. KUSC 11 Washington, Minneapolis and Boston are not as large but enjoy WQXR 9 highly educated populations. Fall 2017 KDFC 6 National Previous studies have established WRTI 5 that education predicts audience AudiGraphics levels for classical stations. Nielsen Audio KSJN 5 So, to build the national audience, there are two strategic options: WETA 4 KBAQ 4 WCRB 4 • Classical stations must become more competitive in very large markets like LA. Of the 53 classical stations, 8 generate half of the national audience. • Focus on markets with high education levels, which are fertile ground for public radio. Classical Stations NAG Fall 2017 Walrus Research 10 LOS ANGELES NEW YORK How are we doing in Los Angeles Leading Stations Listening Trend and New York? Persons 12+ Mon-Sun 6am-12m KUSC’s AQH listening audience KUSC WQXR peaked back in Fall 2013 with 25,900 30,000 persons.