MEDIA CLIPS – April 18, 2017

Same Story, more emphasis on defense Offensive slump means Rockies' shortstop needs balance

By Thomas Harding / MLB.com | @harding_at_mlb | April 17th, 2017

SAN FRANCISCO -- There's no way around Rockies second-year shortstop 's .114 batting average, which includes a 37.7 percent rate (20 in 53 plate appearances) and the 1-for-25 slump he will carry into Tuesday's opener of a two-game set at Dodger Stadium. But his response -- make that his requirement -- is simple:

Story can't let his glove go south, also.

Story's start on offense is the opposite of his performance last season, when he homered 10 times in April. But if is truly different, if the club is going to pitch and defend its way to contention after six straight years of low runs and sub-

.500 records, then Story's defense is going to be more important, anyhow.

How has it been? It's hard to measure, since the Rockies play defensive shifts often enough that metrics for Story's position are less relevant (they only measure plays from traditional alignments). His fielding percentage (.969) is affected by two errors, but a burgeoning study of defensive metrics (which is still in its infancy) has arisen because fielding percentage says little.

But what is apparent is Story is making enough plays -- and is doing a good enough job leaving his offensive woes in the dugout when he takes his position -- that manager has started him every game but one this season.

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"A premium defensive position ... with any middle-of-the-diamond defender, and I'll include the catcher, we need defenders there," Black said. "Trevor's played great defense, which is what we need every day from our shortstop.

"I think hits will come. We have exchanges every day with different things, but I know that this guy is a very good all- around player, and that will show up -- the offense, because the defense has already shown up."

Searching for offensive highlights, Black said, "He's leading our team in walks."

Story, 24, said repeatedly last year when the bat was working that he takes pride in his defense. In that respect, he doesn't believe anything has changed.

"That's the most important part about it," Story said. "I try to separate the two and I've done that. What I'm doing at the plate, I won't let it affect me; and vice versa."

Story led Major League rookies with 27 homers -- a record -- before sustaining a season-ending left thumb ligament injury at the end of July. The Rockies were at the edge of contending for an NL Wild Card spot, but they didn't have a strong enough bullpen to achieve the goal.

But Story's absence exposed another issue. Colorado believed, with an infield that included defensive stalwarts Nolan

Arenado and DJ LeMahieu, it lost considerable range and continuity.

The club signed , who has started at short for stretches, partly in case they need someone to step in for a stretch. Beyond Amarista, the Rockies have Cristhian Adames in the Majors and at Triple-A Albuquerque, but they have been used as multi-position players rather than shortstops.

After Story recovered from thumb surgery, he spent most of the offseason at the team's training center in Scottsdale, Ariz.

He took grounders and made throws when Colorado was converting newly signed to first base during the offseason, and he has spent extra time with Arenado and LeMahieu trying to practice every scenario they can think of in which they may struggle when they're stationed in odd places.

"I feel confident," Story said. "I want the ball hit to me. Behind our starters, we take pride in knowing that ground balls are going to be outs."

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Rockies off to strong start despite adversity

By Thomas Harding / MLB.com | @harding_at_mlb | April 17th, 2017

DENVER -- Considered a sleeper in the when opened, the Rockies began the season with four key members of their projected roster on the disabled list, and they have seen the top of their lineup, other than Nolan Arenado, shut down in the first two weeks of the season.

And they still woke up Monday morning in first place in the NL West.

Now the season is only two weeks old. The Rockies do have 148 games left to play. But the short sample has shown that

Colorado could be long on resiliency.

In the course of a week in Spring Training, the Rockies suffered the following injuries:

• Left fielder sidelined with a stress reaction in his upper back.

• Catcher suffered a hairline fracture in his right forearm when on a throw to second base he hit Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo's bat.

• First baseman Ian Desmond suffered a broken left hand when he was hit by a pitch from Reds right-hander Rookie

Davis.

• And starting Chad Bettis, who underwent surgery for testicular cancer in November, was told the cancer had spread into the lymph nodes and he would undergo eight weeks of chemotherapy.

So what happened? The season opened with the top three hitters in the lineup -- , DJ

LeMahieu and Carlos Gonzalez, along with shortstop Trevor Story -- in offensive funks. And Opening Day starter Jon

Gray tried to pitch through a left big toe problem that developed during the spring only to find himself on the disabled list with a stress fracture in his left foot after working only 12 1/3 innings in four starts.

Oh, and the Rockies won nine of their first 14 games, taking two out of three from the Dodgers and then take three out of four from the Giants, winning a four-game series in AT&T Park for the first time in franchise history.

Say what?

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This is, after all, a franchise that has suffered six consecutive losing seasons, during which time it has the worst combined record (420-552) in the NL. Well, Mark Reynolds -- the starting first baseman a year ago who wound up back in camp on a Minor League contract -- has stepped in for Desmond, leads the team with 11 RBIs despite hitting down in the lineup, is tied with Arenado for the team lead in home runs with four and, at .306, has the third-best batting average on the team behind Arenado (.333) and Parra (.343).

Yes, behind Parra, who lost his starting job in the middle of last season to Dahl but has found himself back in the lineup in

Dahl's absence.

Antonio Senzatela won the final spot in the rotation in light of Bettis' absence, and he is 2-0. Colorado has won all three of his starts, including a 4-3 decision against San Francisco on Sunday, when he gave up three runs in the first inning and nothing else over the next six before turning things over to the bullpen.

Ah, the bullpen, which had the highest ERAs in baseball in each of the past three seasons and the highest in the NL in the past four.

General manager Jeff Bridich and Co. -- unfazed by the way their offseason plans a year ago backfired with the struggles of free-agent relievers Jason Motte and Chad Qualls -- went back to the free-agent market the past offseason and hit an early-season jackpot with the addition of closer Greg Holland and left-handed late-inning reliever Mike Dunn.

The Rockies will go into a two-game series at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday with a bullpen that is leading the Majors with eight saves and ranks third in the NL with a 2.68 ERA.

Holland is 7-for-7 in save opportunities, having allowed only five baserunners (two singles and three walks) in seven scoreless innings, and Dunn has allowed only three baserunners (a single and two walks) in six scoreless innings.

Yes, it is early. For the Rockies, however, it is encouraging.

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McMahon sets career-high for hits

By Mike Rosenbaum / MLB.com | 1:37 AM ET

After an impressive spring in big league camp, Andrew Stevenson hasn't skipped a beat to begin the season. On

Monday, the Nationals' No. 5 prospect collected a career-high five hits to help lead Double-A Harrisburg past Harford,

16-14, in 13 innings. Stevenson flew out in his first at-bat, but collected singles in his next two trips to the plate. He would then notch RBI singles in the eighth and ninth innings before doubling in the 12th to finish 5-for-7 and improve his average to .381.

Stevenson actually had an opportunity to add to his impressive line when he batted in the top of the 13th inning, though

Hartford opted to intentionally walk the Senators' leadoff hitter. He would come around to score on a double later in the frame, providing Harrisburg with an important insurance run. He scored four runs in the contest, matching his total from his previous nine games.

Ryan McMahon also had a memorable game for the losing Yard Goats. The Rockies' No. 8 prospect set career highs with five hits and six RBIs, ultimately finishing a double shy of hitting for the cycle. He knotted the score at 12 apiece with his third of the season, a game-tying, three-run shot with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, and tallied singles both in the 12th and 13th innings to finish 5-for-7.

McMahon, 22, is batting a robust .413 through 11 games to begin the season, and he now paces all Eastern League hitters with 14 RBIs.

Together the two teams combined to score 30 runs on 30 hits in a game that required five hours, 35 minutes to complete.

The rest of the best performances from top prospects Monday

• No. 59 overall prospect walked it off for Triple-A Las Vegas with a two-run homer in the bottom of the

10th inning. The deep fly was the second of the season for the (Mets' No. 2 prospect), who's now batting .395 after going

3-for-5 with three RBIs and two runs scored on Monday.

• No. 92 overall prospect Jeimer Candelario (Cubs' No. 4) hit his third home run and drove in two runs to increase his

Minor League-leading RBI total to 18. Mark Zagunis and Victor Caratini -- the Cubs' No. 6 and No. 12 prospects -- each hit their first home run of the season and combined for seven RBIs, though it wasn't enough to keep Triple-A Iowa from falling to Round Rock, 10-9. 5

• No. 97 overall prospect Ronald Acuna's (Braves' No. 7) solo home run in the top of the ninth inning accounted for the lone run in Advanced Florida's 2-1 loss against Fort Myers. It was the 19-year-old's first home run of the season after he went deep four times in 42 games last season in what was an injury-marred campaign.

• Athletics' No. 14 prospect Dakota Chalmers entered in relief in the fifth inning and proceeded to strikeout 10 (a new career high for the right-hander) of the 13 batters he faced over four one-hit innings in Class A Beloit's extra-inning loss against Kane County. The 2015 third-rounder allowed six earned runs in six innings across his first two turns for the

Snappers.

• Astros' No. 19 prospect Ronnie Dawson enjoyed his first multihit game of the season, going 3-for-6 with a triple, a double and two RBIs as Class A Quad Cities hammered Burlington, 15-1. Jake Rogers (No. 22) also collected three hits, including his first home run, in the rout, while right-hander Jorge Alcala (No. 29) tossed five scoreless innings of one-hit ball to pace the River Bandits on the mound.

• Cardinals' No. 8 prospect was outstanding once again for Double-A Springfield, tossing 7 2/3 scoreless frames against Midland to record his third win in as many starts. The 21-year-old righty allowed just two hits, walked one and struck out nine in the outing, throwing 63 of his 99 pitches for strikes. He owns a 0.42 ERA through 21 1/3 innings for the Cardinals, with 19 , two walks and nine hits allowed.

• Mariners' No. 4 prospect Andrew Moore recorded his first win of the season, tossing seven innings of one-run ball, as

Double-A Arkansas defeated San Antonio, 3-1. The earned run allowed by the 22-year-old right-hander was his first in three starts. He's posted a 0.47 ERA over 19 innings in the span, during which he's complied 16 strikeouts against just three walks and nine hits.

• Rangers' No. 4 prospect Ronald Guzman connected on his second home run and drove in four runs to help power

Triple-A Round Rock past Iowa. The 22-year-old first baseman finished 3-for-5 at the plate to improve his average to .391 through 12 games.

• Tigers' No. 7 prospect Michael Gerber went 4-for-5 on Monday to extend his hitting streak to seven games for Double-

A Erie. One of those hits was his second home run of the season, a two-run shot in the first inning, and he also picked up his third stolen base in the contest. With the four-hit performance, Gerber improved his average to from .237 to .302.

• Twins' No. 26 prospect Lachlan Wells retired the first 13 batters he faced en route to tossing seven scoreless innings as Class A Advanced Fort Myers edged Florida, 2-1. The 20-year-old righty scattered three hits and fanned eight while finding the zone with 68 of his 91 pitches. Wells, who pitched for Team Australia in the World Baseball Classic, owns a

0.64 ERA and a 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14 innings (three starts) this season.

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From baloney to bullish: How the Rockies rebuilt baseball’s worst bullpen into one of the best The effectiveness of Colorado’s bullpen this season has changed dramatically

By Nick Groke / Denver Post | April 18, 2017

The renovation of a Rockies bullpen in shambles started at Greenwood Field in Asheville, N.C., a ballpark with a batter’s eye not unlike that at , a bank of trees behind the fence in straightaway center. No fanfare or radar guns. Just

Greg Holland pitching to a backstop.

Darren Holmes, the Rockies’ bullpen , lives during the winter about 2 miles down the road. He was there too, watching and scouting, two rustic right-handers with paths about to cross. Holmes once revived his flickering career with the Rockies after they plucked him in the 1993 expansion draft. He flipped into a reliable reliever on their road to the playoffs two years later.

Holland wanted something similar. Once the most dominating reliever in baseball, his arm nearly fell off at the elbow in

2015 as the climbed to the World Series on the back of a game-changing bullpen.

“We’re both from the country. We grew up tough. We grew up very poor,” Holmes said. “We have a lot in common. And he wanted to be someplace where he was comfortable.”

In a series of risky moves over the winter and up to the end of spring training, the Rockies set in motion a defiant makeover of how to win at elevation. Once the owner of the worst bullpen in baseball, a unit in recent seasons capable of turning a close game at Coors Field into a gut punch of despair, the Rockies are winning this season with one of the best bullpens in the National League.

“I thought this would be a good team,” Holland said. “It was pretty simple.”

Colorado’s bullpen rebuild, at the top of its priority list, moved swiftly.

Within six weeks in December and January, the Rockies signed Holland and left-hander Mike Dunn for a combined $26 million, a fee that could more than double with performance incentives. The Rockies looked past high-profile, and higher- priced, closers such as Mark Melancon. They sat on a young and inexpensive starting pitching rotation without any free- agent additions. And they cut struggling right-hander Jason Motte in the final days of spring training, eating his $5 million salary.

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“Greg Holland and Mike Dunn have been fabulous for the mentality of the bullpen,” first-year Rockies manager Bud Black said. “They have made a marked difference with the professionalism of that group. There’s no doubt they have set the standard.”

Dunn, like Holland, wanted a veteran resurrection. A mainstay over six seasons, Dunn landed on the shelf last year because of a forearm injury and pitched in only 51 games. But his statistics are deceptive. He missed two months at the beginning of the season, returned healthy for the final four months and trended toward the type of action that netted him a 2.66 ERA with the Marlins in 2013.

The Rockies recognized his value. They targeted Dunn as a priority at baseball’s winter meetings in early December, when other teams were still chasing closers. When the St. Louis Cardinals in late November signed southpaw Brett Cecil to a four-year, $30.5 million contract, the market for Dunn slowed.

That’s when Colorado dispatched new bench coach to lobby Dunn. Redmond was Dunn’s manager in

Miami when Dunn was at his peak. Phone calls followed.

“He even asked me, ‘You’re not scared to pitch here?’ I said, ‘No. I’m not,’ ” Dunn recalled. “Some guys don’t like coming to Colorado. It’s true. But it never bothered me. It became a destination spot I really wanted to be. There’s a good young core that can win now. And they really stressed to me that they want to go after it.”

With Dunn signed, the Rockies moved to luring Holland. Colorado pitching coach was the Royals’ bullpen coach when Holland had a 1.21 and 1.44 ERA in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Holmes knew him through family in North

Carolina. When Holland threw at a scouting showcase in Arizona in early November for the first time since his Tommy

John elbow reconstruction surgery in 2015, teams balked at his 88 mph velocity.

The Giants, who even sent their general manager and vice president to scout Holland, and the Dodgers, along with several other teams, were interested in Holland but not necessarily as a closer. The Rockies, though, knew Holland was arcing his comeback to land at full health late in spring training.

“It’s almost sickly comforting that a guy had Tommy John and has recovered from it and is going to be able to pitch well again,” said Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich. “It’s unfortunate to have to talk that way, but it’s the reality.”

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The Rockies signed Dunn for three years and $19 million. They gave Holland a one-year deal for $7 million, with a wheelbarrow full of incentives. It was not the end of their spending.

A year ago, Colorado whiffed on two other veteran free-agent relievers, Jason Motte and Chad Qualls. During the final weekend of spring training this year, they cut Motte — despite the $5 million still owed to him. They went instead with young reliever , who earned the job in camp. Qualls remains on the disabled list because of a forearm injury.

They also returned a healthy Adam Ottavino (Tommy John in 2015) and Jake McGee (knee injury last season) to full form.

The effectiveness of Colorado’s bullpen this season has changed dramatically. At least early on.

Last year, the Rockies’ relief corps had the worst ERA in baseball (5.13), with 28 blown saves. Through 11 games this year the bullpen had a 2.20 ERA, eighth-lowest in baseball, with a major league-best 51 strikeouts. Relievers are allowing a 0.98 WHIP (walks and hits per inning) despite throwing the third-most innings.

“I felt comfortable about them taking care of the bullpen as a whole,” Holland said of Rockies management. “And there’s good defense and a good lineup. What else can you ask for as a pitcher?”

Bullpen restoration

During the winter, the Rockies set in motion a dramatic makeover of their bullpen. Who the relievers are:

Closer: Greg Holland, 31, former elite closer for the Royals.

Setup man: Adam Ottavino, 31, right-hander with a wipeout slider.

Late-inning lefties: Mike Dunn, 32, and Jake McGee, 30, both with late-game experience.

Long man: Chris Rusin, crafty left-hander who had the team’s best ERA in 2016.

Mop-up duty: Jordan Lyles, a converted starter in a “piggyback” role.

Young fireballers: Carlos Estevez, 24, and Scott Oberg, 27.

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Rockies already testing their pitching depth “in the fire” as they look for another starter German Marquez is now in an open competition again, with right-handers and Harrison Musgrave

By Patrick Saunders / Denver Post | April 18, 2017

SAN FRANCISCO — weaved among Giants fans in a lower concourse at AT&T Park on Sunday, earbuds in and sweats on. He was wearing a protective boot on his left leg. The visitor’s weight room there is down the hall from the

Rockies’ temporary clubhouse. None of the fans stopped him.

Colorado’s opening-day starter broke his foot on the mound last week fielding a ground ball. And now he is left to work out on his own, another displaced pitcher in the Rockies rotation.

“It’s already happened. It’s done. I’ve accepted it,” Gray said. “I’m just thinking what I can do now.”

Less than a month into the season, the Rockies rotation is missing two key pieces, Gray and fellow right-hander Chad

Bettis, who left spring training last month as he began chemotherapy to treat testicular cancer. Now Colorado is digging into its depth again, looking for a way to get by with more young arms.

“Losing Chad for half a year, we hope, and losing Jon for a month, we hope, I mean those guys were at the top of our rotation,” Colorado manager Bud Black said. “You take the top two guys off anybody’s staff, that’s a blow.”

A battle over the final two weeks of spring training pitted five for two spots in the season-opening rotation, jobs won by 22-year-old right-hander and 23-year-old , both rookies. German Marquez, 22, just missed earning a nod in the rotation, landing a spot in the bullpen. He did not appear in a game before being shuttled back to Triple-A. He is now in contention, again, to get a starting spot, along with right-handers Jeff Hoffman, 24, and

Harrison Musgrave, 25.

“These guys, they know what’s ahead of them,” Black said. “They probably know there’s a start coming up for them and they want to be that guy.”

With two off days this week, Monday and Thursday, the Rockies can go with a four-man rotation until Tuesday, April

25. For the first time in several years, the Rockies actually have a depth of pitching talent available.

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“I’d like to have as many options as possible,” Black said. “That’s a good thing, when guys are healthy and competing and doing their thing and your decisions get tough. That means in most cases the performance is there. We want these guys to pitch well.”

The Rockies, in streaking to the top of the National League West with a 9-5 record, have hid their starting pitching issues with a rebuilt bullpen that had the seventh-best ERA, 2.68, in the big leagues entering play Monday. Rockies starters have a 4.68 ERA, 26th. And the team has a minus-7 run differential, which usually does not equate to a winning record.

Relying so heavily on their relief corps will likely haunt them at some point. The Rockies need more from their starters so the bullpen doesn’t become exhausted.

Left-hander Chris Rusin, who has started 49 games in his career, has settled in as a valuable piece of the bullpen as a long reliever. Black said he likely will remain there.

So the competition for replacements is happening in Albuquerque. Marquez has been the most effective pitcher in limited work, with a 1.69 ERA over 5 1/3 innings. But he is not stretched out ready to throw deep into a game. He is scheduled for five innings and 75-80 pitches in his next start, Thursday. His days off on regular rest line him up to be available April 25.

Hoffman, the heralded pitcher acquired in the trade with Toronto two summers ago, lasted four innings in a loss Sunday, giving up six hits and two runs. Musgrave, in two starts, has a 5.19 ERA and a control problem, with eight strikeouts and six walks.

“The inexperience of the starting rotation will test us,” Black said. “But the best teacher will be in the fire.”

Rotation bending

The Rockies lost a second significant starter to their pitching rotation last week when Jon Gray broke his foot. Here’s where the rotation stands and who might step up:

Starters

LHP , 27

RHP Tyler Chatwood, 27

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RHP Antonio Senzatela, 22

LHP Kyle Freeland, 23

Injured

RHP Jon Gray, 25, broken left foot

RHP Chad Bettis, 27, testicular cancer

Candidates for 5th spot

RHP German Marquez, 22, 1.69 ERA in 5 1/3 innings

RHP Jeff Hoffman, 24, 4.80 ERA in 15 innings

RHP Harrison Musgrave, 25, 5.19 ERA in 8 2/3 innings

LHP Chris Rusin, 30, 1.69 ERA as Rockies long-reliever

Looking Ahead …

Rockies LHP Kyle Freeland (1-1, 5.91 ERA) at Dodgers LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (0-2, 5.79), 8:10 p.m. Tuesday, ROOT;

850 AM

Freeland needs a better approach out of the gate. After dominating the Dodgers in his major-league debut during the

Rockies’ home opener on April 7, Freeland was ambushed in the first inning by San Diego in his second start. The Padres pounced on Freeland’s early in the game. The rookie left-hander settled down after that, but he’ll need a better plan against the Dodgers Tuesday night. Ryu doesn’t look like the pitcher he was before he had shoulder problems. The

Cubs bombed him for two homers in four innings on Thursday and his fastball velocity was down to 87-88 mph. In his first two seasons with the Dodgers, Ryu allowed 0.6 home runs per nine innings. In his three starts since returning, one last year, two this year, he’s allowed four home runs in just 14 innings and has yet to complete five innings in any of those three starts.

Wednesday: Rockies LHP Tyler Anderson (1-2, 8.59) at Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw (2-1, 2.53), 8:10 p.m., ROOT

Thursday: Off

Friday: Giants RHP Johnny Cueto (3-0, 3.79) at Rockies RHP Tyler Chatwood (1-2, 3.54), 6:40 p.m. ROOT

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Rockies prospect Ryan McMahon homers and drives in six runs Top prospect Ryan McMahon knocks in six RBI in Yard Goats’ extra innings loss

By Connor Farrell / Purple Row | @rockiesVSconnor | Apr 18, 2017, 7:30am MDT

Ryan McMahon’s 2017 is shaping up to be the best Quesarito of his life.

The Rockies infield prospect spent much of 2016 struggling to find his bat as the Double-A Yard Goats struggled to find a home. But the Chipotle fanatic hasn’t wasted any time this season reminding us why he’s a top 10 prospect in a very good

Rockies system.

Entering last night, McMahon was hitting .359 with 8 RBI and two home runs. A struggling Hartford squad wasn’t due to

McMahon’s bat as the infielder was involved in nearly every game so far this season.

Last night, he became more than just involved.

A 5-for-7 night including a three run home run to tie the game in the bottom of the 9th, a triple that cleared the bases in the

7th inning, and an RBI single. McMahon finished the night nearly doubling his season RBI count, lifted his average to .413 and added another tier to the phrase “absolutely goes off.”

The Yard Goats eventually lost the game in the 13th inning but McMahon’s six RBI and 10 total bases remain the highlight.

Other scores and lines from the Rockies affiliates are below:

Triple-A: 4, 3

1 Jerry Vasto (Confirmed Exister): 1 ⁄3 IP, 2 K 0 R

Jordan Patterson (No. 13 PuRP): 0-for-3

2 Tacoma: Christian Bergman (Old Friend): 6 ⁄3 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 4 K

Double-A: Harrisburg Senators 16, 14 (13)

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Ryan McMahon (No. 7 PuRP): 5-for-7, HR, 3B, 6 RBI

Max White: 2-for-3, 3 BB, 3 R

Ryan Castellani (No. 9 PuRP): 5 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 4 K

Dillon Thomas (Friend of the Brand): 1-for-5, 2 BB

Single-A Advanced: Lancaster JetHawks 9, Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 5

Garrett Hampson (No. 22 PuRP): 3-for-5, 3 R

Forrest Wall (No. 15 PuRP): 2-for-3, 2 RBI, R

Brian Mundell: 2-for-4, R

Mylz Jones: 2-for-4, HR, 3 RBI

Single-A: Kannapolis Intimidators 5, 3

Vince Fernandez: 2-for-4, 2B, RBI

Erick Julio: 7 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 8 K

Tuesday Probables:

Triple-A Albuquerque: Matt Flemer (1-1, 5.06 ERA) vs. Reno

Double-A Hartford: Jack Wynkoop (1-1, 2.03 ERA) vs. Harrisburg

Single-A Advanced Lancaster: Colin Welmon (1-0, 4.09 ERA) vs. Rancho Cucamonga

Single-A Asheville: Antonio Santos (0-1, 2.25 ERA) vs. Kannapolis

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The Rockies’ record and run differential tell different stories, both wrong What the Rockies record after 14 games tells us.

By Eric Garcia McKinley / Purple Row | @garcia_mckinley | Apr 18, 2017, 9:00am MDT

The Rockies are 9-5 to start the season. That’s great so far, but digging deeper into record estimators reveals more of a mixed bag for the Rockies. In particular, the Rockies’ record and run differential tell conflicting stories, while the more sophisticated record adjusters put them in between the two.

Let’s start with the raw wins and losses. The Rockies have won nine games, and they have lost five games. The numbers are small, but a 9-5 record is pretty impressive. The winning percentage is .643. Extrapolate that for an entire season, and it’s a 103-59 team. This is an “on pace” conclusion, and it’s best taken with a grain of salt (Greg Holland is also “on pace” to save 81 games, and I’m “on pace” to live forever). The most significant thing we can take away from this start is that those nine wins aren’t going away. The Rockies own ‘em.

A major reason the Rockies have such a good record so far is that they’re 5-0 in one-run games. One-run run games in general are less indicative of a team’s overall quality than they are in seeing on which side of a coin flip they’ve fallen in a given timeframe. The 2016 Cubs, for example, were just 22-23 in one run games. That’s typical. It’s true that the Rockies’ bullpen has been excellent so far this season, and they should be credited for helping the team hold on to those five wins.

But sooner or later the Rockies will enter those late innings down instead of up, and the bullpen won’t be able to help.

There are always outliers like the 2016 Rangers (36-11 in one-run games), but I wouldn’t count on the Rockies to come close to replicating that.

The raw record doesn’t tell the whole story. A different measure of how well a team is doing, and it relates a bit to record in one-run games, is its Pythagorean record. Pythagorean record is based on run differential. The foundation of

Pythagorean record is that it moves beyond pure results. Instead, it bases the record on how many runs a team has scored against how many runs they have given up. It is supposed to tell us something about how well the team has truly performed against competition.

The Rockies aren’t doing so well in this area. In the National League, only the Pirates, Cardinals, and Padres have a worse run differential than the Rockies’ -7. Translate that differential into a record, and the Rockies are playing like a 6-8 team. That .440 win percentage extrapolates to a 71-91 record. The difference between the Rockies’ actual record and

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this performance based measure is pretty big. The idea behind Pythagorean record is that it’s more reliable about a team’s overall talent and is therefore more trustworthy when guessing how the team will do going forward.

But while run differential provides a reasonable record adjustment, there are more sophisticated approaches. FanGraphs’

BaseRuns and Baseball Prospectus’s 3rd Order Win Percentage both adjust for additional underlying factors beyond run differential, such as how many runs a team “should” have scored based on the situations the team found itself in throughout the season, as well as quality of opponent. Here the Rockies find themselves in the middle. By FanGraphs’ estimation, the Rockies should be 7-7—not bad, but not what Rockies fans are hoping and seeking after this great start to the season. Baseball Prospectus’s measure is more optimistic. It thinks the Rockies should have a .547 win percentage right now. That would translate to about 88 wins. It isn’t 103, but it sure as hell isn’t 71.

We have what the Rockies have done so far, as well as a few estimations of what they should have done. Taking the extremes, we can say with a whole lot of confidence that the Rockies will win somewhere between 71 and 103 games.

The truth of the middle is where we find the most nuanced record estimators. What we can say about the Rockies’ record so far is that the raw record paints too rosy of a picture, while the run differential is a grimmer portrait than really exists.

There’s a lot of baseball left to reveal more truths. I bet we’ll find it somewhere in the 80s.

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Rockies catcher Dustin Garneau relishing time with big league club Dustin Garneau, as an injury replacement for Tom Murphy, is using his defensive prowess to help hold down the fort for the 9-5 Rockies.

By Bryan Kilpatrick / Purple Row | @purplerowBK | Apr 17, 2017, 1:29pm MDT

DENVER— catcher Dustin Garneau is thankful for his spot on the club’s big league roster. He also knows it might not have happened if not for an injury to his teammate and good friend Tom Murphy.

“Murph and I have been working together every year for four or five years now,” Garneau recollected prior to the Rockies’ home opener earlier this month. “It's a friendship; it's not really a working relationship.”

The situation presents a unique dynamic. Two friends who spent the better part of spring training battling for the same roster spot. And the one who ended up with the spot, Garneau, certainly isn’t playing like a guy who wants to lose it any time soon.

That doesn’t mean he’s thrilled with the circumstances.

“It was awful,” Garneau said of Murphy’s forearm fracture that put him on the disabled list to start the season. “It was a freak thing that happened and it freaking sucks. Last year he started the year on the DL too with an [injured] oblique, so I feel for the guy, man.“

“I'm not going to sit here and say I'm glad it happened,” Garneau continued. “It's horrible. It's a part of the game, but it's a sucky part.”

Regardless of his personal feelings about the situation, Garneau has handled himself like a pro while sharing time behind the plate with Tony Wolters. The Rockies have ridden the National League’s second-best bullpen (58 ERA-, behind only the ) and an improved, but still inconsistent, starting rotation to a major league-leading nine wins in the season’s first two weeks. One underrated part of the early result has been the team’s defense behind the plate;

Garneau and Wolters have combined for the most defensive runs above average in baseball, per Fangraphs.

“[Garneau] works hard and calls a great game,” Murphy said of his friend. “I’m so happy for him and how he’s playing. He deserves to be here.”

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That was evident in the Rockies’ 2017 home debut, when Garneau—with a steady presence behind the plate and a big home run at it—helped guide rookie pitcher Kyle Freeland to his first career win.

“‘G’ was great,” Freeland said of Garneau following that game. “He helped me stay calm on the mound and keep my focus and poise out there. And that home run was a deciding factor in the game.”

Garneau’s bat has since cooled; the 29-year-old backstop is hitting just .182/.250/.409 for the season. But getting fairly consistent playing time and seeing big league pitchers more regularly should help Garneau iron out some of those kinks.

The foundation already seems to be there; Garneau’s relatively high slugging percentage in the early going is backed by a hard-hit ball rate of 45.5 percent, well above the major league average of 31.2 percent.

“I found something out the last couple years at Triple-A working with [Albuquerque manager Glenallen] Hill,” Garneau explained. “I can swing a little bit harder and drive the ball a little bit more, and be to where I'm not just trying to place the ball.”

And the process, Garneau feels, is going according to plan, even if the results aren’t there yet. He’s meeting the overall goal he set out to accomplish offensively.

“I'm a little more comfortable, and that's all I'm trying to be at the plate,” Garneau said. “My hitting coaches now are just letting me hit and be the hitter that I can be and want to be, and being comfortable at the plate helps me do that.”

Even with his defensive prowess, Garneau is likely going to have to hit a little more than he has to this point to have a chance at sticking once Murphy returns. When asked whether the Rockies would consider carrying three catchers if or when that happens, manager Bud Black was pretty firm with his answer.

“That’s gonna be a great decision to have,” Black said. “But probably not — but maybe. But probably not.”

Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich seemed a little more open minded.

“Athletically, Tony Wolters can do more that just catch, so conceivably the answer is ‘yes,’” Bridich said. “But that would force us to change how we look at our catching corps right now. We haven’t put a whole lot of thought into that.”

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None of that matters much to Garneau. He’s concerned with continuing to help guide the young pitching staff and do his part to ensure the usual early season optimism surrounding the Rockies doesn’t wear off this time around.

“I'm not playing GM. That's not my job,” Garneau said. “I'll let Bud [Black] and all of them figure that out when it gets there.

But while I'm here, I'll keep trying to force their hand to keep me here.”

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Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: Five Players To Watch

By Kevin Henry / Rox Pile | April 17, 2017

Coming off a series where the Colorado Rockies took three of four games in San Francisco for the first time in franchise history from the Giants, the Rockies were rewarded with their first off day of the season.

After resting up on Monday, the Rockies now face the task of taking the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chavez Ravine for the first time in 2017. Colorado took two of three meetings from the Dodgers in their first encounter of the season at Coors

Field from April 7-9.

In Tuesday’s series opener, Colorado is expected to send left-hander Kyle Freeland (1-1, 5.91 ERA) to the hill against southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu (0-2, 5.79 ERA). The two squared off on April 7 in the home opener at Coors Field, which was also Freeland’s Major League debut. Freeland earned the win by throwing six innings of four-hit baseball and allowing just one run. Ryu certainly didn’t throw poorly in taking the loss that day, allowing just two runs and six hits in 4.2 innings of work.

On Wednesday in the finale of the two-game series, Tyler Anderson (1-2, 8.59 ERA) is tentatively slated to start for the

Rockies against Clayton Kershaw (2-1, 2.53 ERA). Anderson, a left-hander, gave up five hits and five runs against the

Dodgers on April 9. Kershaw, meanwhile, was tagged for four runs and eight hits on April 8 as the Rockies registered three home runs against him in a 4-2 Colorado win.

So who are five players who will be key for the Rockies during these two big games against the Dodgers? Let’s take a look…

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Despite Solid Start, Colorado Rockies Fans Should Remember Past Lessons

By Quinn Ritzdorf / Rox Pile | April 17, 2017

The Colorado Rockies have started the season 9-5. Let’s take a short recap of how they got there.

The Rockies began the season winning the series against the 3-1.

Their home opener was a three game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, which they won 2-1.

Then they hosted the and had a chance to win their first three series of the season for the first time since Coors Field was established in 1995. However, they dropped two of three games to the Padres.

They then traveled to San Francisco and won a series against the Giants 3-1. It was the first time Colorado had ever won a four-game series in San Francisco.

It sounds great, right? Well, what if I told you that the beginning of the past two seasons have been very similar for the

Rox? At this time last year, the Rockies were just one game worse at 8-6.

Let me remind you that the Rockies went on to finish the 2016 season 75-87 and third in the NL West. Let me (and others) also remind you there have been hot starts that have ended in disappointment in the past.

So why is there so much hype around this year’s team?

Well, to begin, there is always hype around the Rockies this time of year. Every season they seem to get out to a hot start before coming to a screeching halt due to injuries or just lack of performance.

Yet, for some reason, this year seems unique.

It might be the resurgence of the pitching staff. Although the starting rotation has looked a little shaky at times (allowing a

5.21 ERA), it’s the strength of the bullpen that is anchoring this team, only allowing a 2.20 ERA.

The question mark is lying within the lineup. The Rockies have started the season ice-cold from the plate, hitting a combined .223 as a team.

Although this year’s Rockies had a similar start to last year’s, they have done it in completely opposite ways.

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This season’s Rockies are winning games because of pitching, where as last season they were winning because they averaged 5.22 runs per game behind an explosive offense.

Maybe fans are excited because Rockies pitching is actually looking up for the first time in franchise history.

This is a fair assertion. However I am here to tell you to not get excited … yet.

First, it’s only 14 games into the season. There are still 148 games left, which means a lot of baseball has yet to be played.

Second, the hitting, which is the staple of the Rox, is non-existent. Most of their games have been close and/or low- scoring, which shows the strength of the pitching. However, it also highlights the absent offense.

We all expect the offense to eventually find itself and return to 2016 form, but it’s not something you can immediately count upon. This time last year, Blackmon, LeMahieu, and Gonzalez were all on their way to hitting in the .300s.

However this year, CarGo is hitting .192, Blackmon .232, and LeMahieu has steadily improved to a decent .280.

Third, the Rockies are prone to injuries. The Rox were the most injury ravaged-team before the season even started with David Dahl, Tom Murphy and Ian Desmond on the DL.

Also Jon Gray just went on the disabled list with a left foot stress fracture, suffered as he tried to field a ball against the Giants. It’s estimated he will be out for at least a month.

This is a big blow to the Rockies. However, tough injuries to overcome have become a part of Colorado’s season almost every year.

Believe me, I’m not trying to be overly negative. All I’m saying is don’t get too excited in April. Yes, baseball is back. Yes, the Rockies are winning games. And yes, they are leading the NL West by half a game.

However, just wait until at least late July to start getting hyped about playoff chances.

Right now, the Rockies still have a long way to go. 148 games to be exact.

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The 100 Greatest Colorado Rockies: No. 34

By Ben Macaluso / Rox Pile | April 17, 2017

We continue our look at the top 100 Colorado Rockies of all time in this article. Here, we look at No. 34 on our list, Kevin

Ritz.

Maybe it’s not surprising that one of the best starters in Colorado Rockies history had a 5.28 ERA in the best season with the club. Pitching in Coors Field in the 1990s is all relative and Kevin Ritz took advantage.

In 1996 he won 17 games which at the time was a club record. Ritz is still tied for second with and Jeff

Francis with that number. Ubaldo Jimenez is the leader with 19.

Ritz came to the Rockies in 1994 after playing with the for four seasons starting in 1989. He did not play in the 1993 season. He didn’t stand out until he came to Denver.

In 1995 he went 11-11 with a 4.21 ERA. He had the most wins on the team that year, but he also had the most losses. He started the most games for the Rockies (28) earning his highest WAR in a single season of 4.5. He did not perform well though in the playoffs giving up seven runs in seven innings.

The next season Ritz learned from those experiences and turned in the best performance of his career. In 1996 he pitched 213 innings and won 10 games before the All-Star break. Only four other pitchers have done this in team history including Shawn Chacon, , Jason Marquis and Ubaldo Jimenez.

Although he had a 5.28 ERA and game up a league leading 125 earned runs, he found a way to win at Coors Field.

Something seemingly impossible to do in the 90s. He retired in 1998 after a series of injuries and after he dedicated his time to his kids. An exemplary man and Rockies pitcher.

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Bud Black pleased with Antonio Senzatela’s ability to handle adversity

By MHS Staff / Mile High Sports | April 18, 2017

Rockies rookie Antonio Senzatela had three big reasons to get down on himself after the first inning of Sunday’s game against the San Francisco Giants. He had just surrendered three runs, allowing the Giants to wipe out an early 3-0 lead the Rockies handed Senzatela after a half-inning. That would be a recipe for combustion for many pitchers making just their third big league start, but not Senzatela.

“A lot of young pitchers would have been extremely dejected and let that affect them the rest of the way, but he didn’t. He notched that belt another notch or two and got it done,” Rockies manager Bud Black said following the game.

After allowing three runs on three hits in the opening frame, Senzatela scattered four hits over the next six-plus innings, not allowing a run, to help lead Colorado to a 4-3 victory and their first-ever four-game series win in San Francisco.

Senzatela struck out three and walked none to earn his second victory in three starts. Colorado is 3-0 in games Senzatela has started in 2017.

Not only was Black impressed with his young starter’s mental toughness to put the bad inning behind him, he was also pleased to see that the 22-year-old seemed to get better as the game wore on.

“I really thought that he was throwing the ball better late in the game than he was earlier. You know, I thought pitch 60 to

90 was some of his better stuff. That’s a good sign; that’s encouraging,” Black said.

Not only was Senzatela battling one of the projected contenders for the NL West crown in the Giants, he was also battling the elements. A steady rain left the field extremely wet pregame, and drizzle continued to fall throughout the course of the afternoon. As the day wore on, those infamous San Francisco winds kicked up and made things even more interesting.

“I really like how he hung in there through the adverse weather conditions early in the game – and even late in the game it started getting a little blustery as well – but he pitched an outstanding game,” Black said.

Senzatela’s success came in part by pounding the strike zone, working ahead in counts and forcing ground balls on the rainy, blustery day. The rookie threw 60 of 94 pitches for strikes, and started 18 of the 27 hitters he faced with a first-pitch strike. Eleven of the 18 outs he recorded were ground balls.

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Senzatela and the Rockies bullpen also got some help from the defense. Carlos Gonzalez made a diving catch with a runner on base to end the game. DJ LeMahieu made several key defensive plays including starting an inning-ending double play in the bottom of the eighth. And Tony Wolters made the play of the day to end the sixth inning and save a potential game-tying run.

“Oh my gosh, yeah, the last play of the game. DJ, you know, a couple big plays. Tony, that little shovel, that was a tough play. Man, those were big plays,” Black said.

The Rockies enjoyed a well-earned day off Monday after starting the season with 14 consecutive games. They are in Los

Angeles on Tuesday and Wednesday for a short series with the Dodgers before returning home to face those same

Giants in a three-game series this weekend at Coors Field. Senzatela is slated to start the Saturday game opposite Matt

Moore, whom he faced Sunday.

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A $420 million star? Predicting how much it would take to lock up MLB's best young players

By Jim Bowden / ESPN.com | April 18, 2017

It’s no secret that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are free agents after the 2018 season. But there is a growing sense of urgency if the Washington Nationals and want any chance of extending their young superstars contracts before they hit free agency. It’s only a matter of time before Harper and Machado become the highest-paid players in baseball history.

The best guess is that they’re on the same timetable and that less than 20 months from today they will agree on their next deals -- most likely with new teams. There’s also the possibility that Machado ends up getting more than Harper, but there is no embellishing what they’ll be paid. Here is a quick look at what I’m expecting Harper and Machado to receive if and when they get to free agency:

3B Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies

Age: 26 | Free Agent: After 2019

Much like Machado in the AL, Arenado is possibly the best defensive third baseman in National League history. He has led the league in home runs, RBIs and total bases in both of the past two seasons, and he already has won four consecutive Gold Glove awards. An MVP trophy is likely in his near future. Coors Field will have to be factored into what he’s worth to other teams, but it will not be enough of a deterrent from his becoming one of the highest paid players in the game.

It will be much cheaper if the Rockies can sign him now before he gets to free agency, where his value will balloon like it will soon for Harper and Machado. It’s reasonable that Arenado gets a 10-year contract in terms of length, like Joey

Votto got from the Reds, especially since it would take Arenado to age 35 and not age 40, like it did Votto. Arenado's AAV will have to be just north of what Yoenis Cespedes got ($27.5 million).

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