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Ecology of Terrorism: Cross-National Comparison of Terrorist Attacks

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Ecology of Terrorism: Cross-National Comparison of Terrorist Attacks City University of New York (CUNY) CUNY Academic Works All Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects 6-2014 Ecology of Terrorism: Cross-National Comparison of Terrorist Attacks Katharine A. Boyd Graduate Center, City University of New York How does access to this work benefit ou?y Let us know! More information about this work at: https://academicworks.cuny.edu/gc_etds/175 Discover additional works at: https://academicworks.cuny.edu This work is made publicly available by the City University of New York (CUNY). Contact: [email protected] Ecology of Terrorism: Cross-National Comparison of Terrorist Attacks By Katharine A. Boyd, M.A. A dissertation submitted to the Graduate Faculty in Criminal Justice in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, the City University of New York 2014 © 2014 KATHARINE A. BOYD All Rights Reserved ii This manuscript has been read and accepted for the Graduate Faculty in Criminal Justice in satisfaction of the dissertation requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Dr. Amy Adamczyk . ___________________________________________________________________________ Date Chair of Examining Committee Dr. Deborah Koetzle . __________________________________________________________________________ Date Executive Officer Dr. Charles B. Strozier ___________________________________________ Dr. Joshua Freilich ___________________________________________ Supervisory Committee THE CITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK iii ABSTRACT Ecology of Terrorism: Cross-National Comparison of Terrorist Attacks By Katharine A. Boyd Advisor: Professor Amy Adamczyk The term terrorism is used to describe a large range of behaviors conducted by a wide variety of groups. Terrorist groups differ in ideology, size, financial support, group longevity, and the number of alliances with other terrorist groups. Relatedly, terrorist groups conduct different number of attacks with varying intents to cause fatalities using diverse forms of violence. This study uses ecological theory to contextualize terrorist violence as a product of terrorist group traits in relation to the environmental context. It is hypothesized that terrorist violence is associated with group traits in relation to the varying political, social, and religious contexts of the countries in which groups operate. Using longitudinal multilevel modeling this study analyzes how terrorist group traits, country characteristics, and exposure to counterterrorism tactics, influence terrorist violence (e.g. number of attacks, fatalities, targets, mode of attack, location of attack) over time. This study uses counterterrorism and group-level data from the Big Allied and Dangerous (BAAD1, 2) datasets, attack data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), country data from multiple public datasets, and counterterrorism and terrorist group data originally collected from open-sources. The results show that each form of violence has a unique set of predictor variables and the results of moderation hypotheses show that group ideologies are associated with different trajectories over time, that group traits condition the effect of counterterrorism, and country characteristics moderation how different terrorist groups conduct violence. This work is among the first to evaluate moderation hypotheses and is one of few studies on terrorism to use advanced statistical methods to evaluate these relationship over time iv and cross-nationally. The study contributes to the literature on terrorism with relevant policy implications, and contributing to the development of ecological theory and its application to political and religiously motivated violence. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS There are multiple people without whom this dissertation would not be complete and to them I would like to express my deepest appreciation. First and foremost I must acknowledge my mother, Karen Boyd, who contributed to multiple stages of this project and without whose help and support this project would never have been completed. It appeared her excitement getting to see the filming of a favorite TV show here in New York City may have compensated for the long hours helping me. I can only hope that her new found extensive knowledge of terrorism and conflict in various parts of the world will serve her well in future jeopardy and trivial pursuit games, as well as her role as editor of my future papers on terrorism. I have the greatest appreciation for the members of my dissertation committee. Dr. Amy Adamczyk, my committee chair, has been extremely supportive of this project and has provided immeasurable help and advice. She has supported me throughout my doctoral student career embracing and encouraging my research ideas and providing me with essential professional guidance. Dr. Charles B. Strozier has supported me for years spotting potential I did not see in myself as an MA student. His passion for teaching and the study of terrorism inspired me to continue pursuing this subject area and an academic career. He has encouraged me as both a professional and personal mentor. I would never have even pursued doctoral study without Chuck’s attention and guidance. Dr. Joshua D. Freilich has also served as a crucial mentor in my doctoral study. Conducting research for Dr. Freilich provided me with the essential experience collecting open-source terrorism data and contemplating important methodological issues. Dr. Freilich has served as a fantastic mentor and friend throughout my doctoral study and I could not be more grateful for his guidance and support. vi I must also thank my father, Kevin Boyd, for his unwavering support of me that is likely maintained by his Starbucks addiction. I hope that his recent Corvette purchase serves to calm the stresses I added to his life as I repeatedly insisted I would never complete this project. Likewise, I want to thank my sisters, Kristy Filipowski and Cynthia Harrison, who have had their own stresses in life and never criticized me for my distraction and kindly understood my preoccupation with schoolwork. I hope that I can provide them support from afar and offer them refuge and relaxation in Exeter. To help with the data collection process I was able to convince a group John Jay students and graduates to work for me. These individuals, listed alphabetically, include Anne Walton, Cassandra Thomas, Dwayne Batchelor, Iveth Parada, Jennifer Lee, and Magda Cieciorko. They were all critical to the data collection process and I can only hope to have taught them half as much as they taught me about how to run a research lab. They were all extremely patient with me as I slowly learned to navigate the skills of managing people, and they all were kind enough to buckle down when crunch time arrived. I also want to thank my other family members and dearest friends from home, the city, school, and California that have never doubted my ability to succeed. They have all had enduring belief in me, despite my protest when times were stressful. These people have all listened to my complaints, offered me invaluable advice, and distracted me when needed. I fear informing them that my trials and tribulations will likely continue as I embark on my next adventure across the pond, but these people have all proved themselves supportive despite distance and disruptions. You are all extremely important to me and I hope that I can support each of you on your unique adventures. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS Pages Table of Contents viii-ix List of Tables x List of Graphs and Figures xi Chapter 1: Introduction 1-2 Overview 1-2 Statement of Current Study Chapter 2: Theoretical Framework 3-6 Overview 3 Ecological Theory 3-6 Chapter 3: Literature Review 7-32 Terrorism Research 7-21 Operationalizing Terrorism Literature on Terrorist Groups Literature on Country Contextual Factors Counterterrorism Research 21-29 Statistical Methodology in the Study 29-32 of Terrorism Chapter 4: Specific Aims and Hypotheses 33-44 Specific Aims 33-44 First aim: Counterterrorism Policies Second aim: Group traits Third aim: Country context Fourth aim: Moderation relationships Fifth aim: Modeling factors Chapter 5: Data Sources, Sample, Measures, and Data Analysis 45-68 Data Sources 45-48 Big Allied and Dangerous (BAAD): Group Data Global Terrorism Database (GTD): Incident Data Quality of Government (QoG): Country data Counterterrorism data Sample Description 48 Measures 49-58 Independent Variables Dependent Variables Data Reliability 59-61 Data Analysis 61-68 Longitudinal multilevel modeling Cross-level Interactions Distribution viii Multiple Membership Random Effects Modeling (MMREM) Chapter 6: Results 69-116 Correlations 69-70 Samples for analyses 70-75 Variables included in analyses Cases included in analyses: the exclusion of outliers Descriptive statistics 75-79 Power analysis 80 Intraclass correlations 81-82 Caveat: Outcome variables that are not analyzed 82-83 Multi-level Modeling Results: 84-106 Aim 1: Counterterrorism policies Aim 2: Terrorist group traits Aim 3: Country characteristics Aim 4: Moderation relationships Aim 5: Modeling factors Evaluating each outcome 106-113 Number of attacks Fatalities Targets Mode of Attack Location of Attack Trends and patterns in terrorist violence 113-117 Summary 117-118 Chapter 7: Discussion, Limitations, and Policy Implications 119-144 Discussion 119-128 Limitations 128-137 Sample limitations Methodological limitations Policy Implications 137-140 Future research 140-143 Summary 143-144 Chapter 8: Conclusion 145-146 Tables, Graphs,
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