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PGST Climate Impact Assessment Report 0518 FINAL

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PGST Climate Impact Assessment Report 0518 FINAL E PORT GAMBLE S’KLALLAM TRIBE | CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT ACKNOWLEDGMENTS PAGE 2 PORT GAMBLE S’KLALLAM TRIBE | CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT ACKNOWLEDGMENTS PAGE 3 PORT GAMBLE S’KLALLAM TRIBE | CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This assessment would not have been possible without the tremendous contributions of many individuals, listed below. Project team Paul McCollum, Natural Resources Director Hans Daubenberger, Principal Habitat Biologist Samuel Phillips, Environmental Scientist Special thanks to the following Tribal staff and partners Roma Call, Environmental Program Manager Ahmis Loving, Loving Engineering & Consulting, P.S. Inc. Laurie Mattson, Interim Health Director Kerstin Powell, Health Services Manager Joe Sparr, Planning Director Sam White, Police Chief Josh Wisniewski, Anthropologist Tim Cullinan, Thom Johnson, Ryan Murphy, Cynthia Rossi, and Austin Paul from the Point No Point Treaty Council We are also grateful for the contributions of our expert reviewers and interviewees Tim Beechie Tim Cullinan Lisa Crozier Joth Davis Austin Paul David Peterson Thanks to the following for their regional coordination efforts around these issues Eliza Ghitis, Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission Kathy Lynn, Tribal Climate Change Project Prepared for the Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe by Cascadia Consulting Group University of Washington Climate Impacts Group Recommended Citation Format Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe Natural Resources Department. 2016. Climate Change Impact Assessment. A collaboration of the Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe, Cascadia Consulting Group, and the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS PAGE 4 PORT GAMBLE S’KLALLAM TRIBE | CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT ACKNOWLEDGMENTS PAGE 5 PORT GAMBLE S’KLALLAM TRIBE | CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT ACRONYMS BC British Columbia BIA Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA) CCVI Climate Change Vulnerability Index CHR Community Health Representative CIG Climate Impacts Group CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation DNR Department of Natural Resources ENSO El Niño/Southern Oscillation EPA Environmental Protection Agency ESA Endangered Species Act ESP Environmental Sample Processor GCM General circulation model GHG Greenhouse gas GRACE Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment HAB Harmful algal bloom HPA Hydraulic Project Approval IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change KFBP Kitsap Forest & Bay Project MHHW Mean Higher High Water MIROC Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate MPB Mountain pine beetle NGO Non-governmental organization NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NRC Natural Resources Commission ORHAB Olympic Region Harmful Algal Bloom partnership PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation PGST Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe PNPTC Point No Point Treaty Council PNW Pacific Northwest PSE Puget Sound Energy PUD Public Utility District RCP Representative Concentration Pathway SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios USDA United States Department of Agriculture USFS United States Forest Service UW University of Washington WDFW Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife WCPP Wetland Conservation Program Plan WSDOT Washington State Department of Transportation ACRONYMS PAGE 6 PORT GAMBLE S’KLALLAM TRIBE | CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT CONTENTS Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................ 3 Acronyms .......................................................................................................................................... 5 Contents ........................................................................................................................................... 7 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................... 8 Background ..................................................................................................................................... 13 Observed and Projected Climate Changes ...................................................................................... 18 Sea Level Rise: Special Section ........................................................................................................ 56 Nonlinear Changes in Climate ......................................................................................................... 63 Salmon ............................................................................................................................................ 73 Forage Fish and Critical Prey ........................................................................................................... 90 Shellfish ........................................................................................................................................... 97 Harmful Algal Blooms ................................................................................................................... 110 Forest Resources ........................................................................................................................... 116 Wetlands ....................................................................................................................................... 129 Birds .............................................................................................................................................. 136 Mammals and Upland Wildlife ...................................................................................................... 143 Infrastructure ................................................................................................................................ 157 Human Health and Safety ............................................................................................................. 168 Cultural Resources ........................................................................................................................ 175 Appendix 1. Key Terms & Definitions ............................................................................................ 180 Appendix 2. Works Cited............................................................................................................... 183 CONTENTS PAGE 7 PORT GAMBLE S’KLALLAM TRIBE | CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT Tribal nations will likely be disproportionately impacted by climate change due to their intimate, long-standing relationship with the natural environment and its resources, as well as their reliance on a wide range of natural resources for subsistence and cultural traditions. Executive Summary The Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe has been concerned about climate change and its actual and potential impacts for over a decade, with increasing focus in the last five years. This report, funded primarily by the Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA) with initial start-up funding from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), uses a scientific literature review and interviews with Tribal staff to identify anticipated climate change impacts on local ecosystems, species, human health, cultural resources, and Tribal infrastructure. The impact assessment focuses on the Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe’s primary traditional use area, which is the central part of their large Usual and Accustomed Area (U&A). The Tribe’s primary traditional use area is comprised of the upper half of Hood Canal and all of Admiralty Inlet. Because this chapter draws from existing datasets and literature, the time periods, spatial scale, and scenarios used to generate the information varies. Where available, we have utilized studies that focus on Hood Canal and Admiralty Inlet or on the Puget Sound region. The Tribe’s Natural Resources Department prefers to use the high emissions scenario results for its planning, considering this “business as usual” scenario seems to be the most likely given current greenhouse gas emissions trends. OBSERVED AND PROJECTED CHANGES IN CLIMATE Observed changes include:1 Temperature: Air temperatures in the Puget Sound region increased by about +1.3°F between 1895 and 2014. All but six of the years from 1980 to 2014 were warmer than the 20th century average. Precipitation: There has been no discernible long-term trend in total annual precipitation for the Puget Sound region, though spring precipitation is increasing. Most studies find that both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation have increased to some degree in Western Washington. 1 See the following chapters for source information. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PAGE 9 PORT GAMBLE S’KLALLAM TRIBE | CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT Snowpack and glaciers: Glaciers in the Olympic Mountains lost 34% of their area and 20% of their volume between 1980 and 2009. A decrease in spring snowpack has been observed at Hurricane Ridge. Streamflow: The spring peak in streamflow is occurring earlier in the year for many snowmelt- influenced rivers in the Puget Sound region. Sea level rise: Sea level at the Seattle tide gauge—which has a longer record than the gauge in Port Townsend—rose by 8.6 inches between 1900 and 2008. Water temperature: Average water temperatures in Hood Canal increased by approximately 1⁰F between 1950 and 2009. Ocean acidification: A combination of increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and nutrient runoff have lowered the pH of Hood Canal’s deep waters thereby increasing its acidity. Projected future changes
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