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The Effects of Financial & Institutional Systems On The effects of Financial & Institutional Systems on International Trade, Specialization and Foreign Direct Investment Rafael Cezar Vasconcellos Barros To cite this version: Rafael Cezar Vasconcellos Barros. The effects of Financial & Institutional Systems on International Trade, Specialization and Foreign Direct Investment. Economics and Finance. Université Paris Dauphine - Paris IX, 2013. English. NNT : 2013PA090045. tel-00957913 HAL Id: tel-00957913 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00957913 Submitted on 11 Mar 2014 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. PSL - Université Paris–Dauphine Ecole Doctorale de Dauphine Laboratoire d’Economie de Dauphine – DIAL Thèse de Doctorat en Sciences Economiques The effects of Financial & Institutional Systems on International Trade, Specialization and Foreign Direct Investment présentée par Rafael CEZAR VASCONCELLOS BARROS soutenue le 26 novembre 2013 devant le jury : Directeur de thèse : M. Jean-Marc SIROËN Professeur, Université Paris-Dauphine Rapporteurs : M. Matthieu CROZET Professeur, Université Paris-Sud 11 Mme Flora BELLONE Professeur, Université de Nice-Sophia-Antipolis Suffragants : M. Hervé BOULHOL Economiste senior, OCDE M. El Mouhoub MOUHOUD Professeur, Université Paris-Dauphine Thèse de Doctorat en Sciences Economiques The effects of Financial & Institutional Systems on International Trade, Specialization and Foreign Direct Investment présentée par Rafael CEZAR VASCONCELLOS BARROS dirigée par Jean-Marc SIROËN Laboratoire IRD UMR 225 DIAL. École Doctorale de d’Economie de Dauphine. Dauphine, 4, rue d’Enghien LEDa – DIAL. Place du Maréchal de 75 010 Paris Lattre de Tassigny Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny 75 775 Paris 75 775 Paris i ii L’Université Paris-Dauphine n’entend donner aucune approbation ni improbation aux opinions émises dans les thèses. Ces opinions doivent être considérées comme propres eurs auteurs iii iv “The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him.” – Leo Tolstoy, 1897 v vi Remerciements Le travail de construction d’une thèse est énorme et – sans ’ombre d’un doute – je n’aurais jamais réussi ’aboutir seul. Je souhaite ainsi remercier le soutien et ’aide de tous ceux qui ont croisé le chemin de cette thèse, et qui ont participé, à leur façon, à son perfectionnement. Tout d’abord je souhaite remercier mon directeur de thèse, Jean-Marc SIROËN. Son orientation a été indispensable depuis le début de ce projet, orsque j’étais encore étudiant dans le master 211 et ’idée d’étudier es effets de a finance sur e commerce international commençait toute juste à pousser. Sa disponibilité et sa bonne humeur ont beaucoup facilité le travail et je suis très reconnaissant de toute son aide. Je souhaite aussi vivement remercier les deux membres du jury présents lors de la présoutenance de cette thèse, Matthieu CROZET et Hervé BOULHOL. Un grand merci d’avoir accepté de faire partie du jury de thèse et de m’avoir fait part de vos expertises. Vos conseils et remarques m’ont permis d’avancer et ont été déterminants pour la rédaction finale de la thèse ’ai essa é autant que possible de prendre en compte vos commentaires. ’espère que vous trouverez ce document final conforme vos attentes. Je remercie vivement F ora BELLONE d’avoir accepté d’être rapporteur de cette thèse et de venir de Nice pour cela. Je remercie également El Mouhoub MOUHOUD d’avoir accepté de faire partie du jur de thèse ’espère que cette thèse soit à la hauteur de vos attentes. Toute ’équipe d’enseignants de Dauphine a été d’un grand soutien au cours de ces années de thèse. Je remercie particulièrement Philippe DE VREYER, Jérôme WITTWER, Eve CAROLI, les directeurs et membres du LEDa et de D L, pour a qua ité de eur encadrement et leur disponibilité. Je souhaite remercier notamment vii Ivan LEDEZMA, Emmanuelle LAVALLEE, Sabine MAGE et Anne-Laure SAMSON pour le temps qu’i s m’ont accordé. Durant ces années de thèse j’ai pu connaître plusieurs chercheurs lors de séminaires et co oques en France et ’étranger Leurs commentaires et remarques ont beaucoup aidé à améliorer les techniques employées et ’interprétation des résu tats e voudrais remercier particulièrement Kalina MANOVA, Jonathan EATON, Spiros BOUGHEAS, Cécile COUHARDE, Eric RUGRAFF, Antoine BERTHOU et Olivier CARDI. Un grand merci également à Joao SABOIA et à Jean-Louis GIRARD, qui sont ’origine de cette aventure Ma thèse ne serait certainement pas la même sans tous les membres, et les membres annexes, de la salle B.317 (à présent P.155). Depuis le tout début de la thèse – grâce à cette salle – j’ai fait des rencontres inoub iab es et des amis que j’espère garder pour toute la vie. Toutes nous discussions (parfois très animées), nos déjeuners et sorties ont été primordiaux pour la construction de la thèse, et également importants dans ma formation d’économiste e dois éga ement es remercier pour es idées apportées, ’assistance et le soutien moral. Un merci spécial à Anne, Ozgur, Luisa, Mélanie, Killian, Karine, Sébastien, Catherine, Sophie, Estelle, Gabriele, Jaime, Anda. Et un merci plus particulier à Octavio, avec qui je partage le dernier chapitre de cette thèse. Je remercie également toutes les personnes qui m’ont accompagné au cours de ces années de thèse et qui m’ont faci ité a tâche de réaliser ce travail. Je pense surtout à mes amis, ma belle famille et mes amis devenus famille, dont le soutien m’a été précieux. Je tiens évidement à également remercier ma famille. Tout d’abord je remercie ma mère et mon père – Laura et Julio – qui m’ont soutenu depuis e tout début, je ne serais jamais arrivé là sans eux. Mon Chopin qui m’a accompagné ors de ongues heures de travail. Un grand merci éga ement ma sœur, mon frère, mon cousin Roberto, mon oncle Neco. Et je ne pourrais jamais oublier ma grande mère Neuza. viii Enfin, je remercie ma femme, Julie, à qui je dédie cette thèse. Sans toi, rien de tout ça n’aurait été possible. Merci infiniment, de tout mon cœur ! ix x Résumé de la thèse Cette thèse étudie ’impact des institutions, notamment es institutions financières, sur le commerce et les investissements internationaux. Les quatre premiers chapitres étudient les institutions financières et leur impact sur le commerce et la spécialisation internationale. Précisément, le premier chapitre étudie ces institutions et les déterminants de leur niveau de développement. Le deuxième chapitre analyse la façon dont la finance intervient sur le commerce bilatéral. Le troisième chapitre construit un modèle théorique qui vise à exp iquer ’impact de a finance sur e commerce sectoriel en fonction du degré d’intensité financière de chaque secteur. Le quatrième chapitre ana se ’impact hétérogène de a finance sur es différents secteurs manufacturiers. Le dernier chapitre de la thèse utilise le terme “institution” dans un sens plus large et étudie théoriquement et empiriquement si les similitudes et différences dans les environnements institutionnels à travers les pays explique la distribution internationale des investissements directs étrangers (IDE). Mots-clés : Systèmes financiers ; Commerce international ; Spécialisation internationale ; Investissement direct étranger ; Firmes hétérogènes, Modèle de gravité. Classification JEL: C43, F12, F13, F14, F21, F23, F40, G20, H80, K20, 016. xi xii Abstract This thesis examines the impact of institutions, especially the financial institutions, on international trade and foreign direct investments. The first four chapters study the financial institutions and their impact on trade and international specialization. Specifically, the first chapter examines these financial institutions and the determinants of their level of development. The second chapter examines how finance impacts bilateral trade. The third chapter builds a theoretical model and aims to explain the impact of finance on the sectoral trade as a function of the degree of financial intensity of each sector. The fourth chapter analyzes the heterogeneous impact of finance on the different manufacturing sectors. The last chapter of the thesis uses the term "institution" in a broader sense and studies theoretically and empirically whether the similarities and differences in institutional environments across countries explain the international patterns of foreign direct investment (FDI). Keywords: Financial development; International trade; International specialization; Foreign direct investment; Heterogeneous firms; Gravity model. Classification JEL: C43, F12, F13, F14, F21, F23, F40, G20, H80, K20, 016. xiii xiv Table des Matières Introduction Générale ............................................................................. 1 Introduction............................................................................................................ 2 I. Motivations ........................................................................................................
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