Welcome! Our Fickle Brain: How Cognitive Biases Undermine Critical Thinking
Rich Grenhart, Psy.D. First, a short video …
Objectives
To improve your critical thinking by enabling you to:
1.Be more aware of intrinsic cognitive biases (the gorillas in our midst), 2.Recognize biases, 3.Develop strategies to mitigate the effects of biases and thereby REDUCE HUMAN ERROR.
Donald Redelmeier, MD, MSHSR, FRCPC, FACP
New York Times: “ the leading debunker of preconceived notions in the medical world”
We live in the most dangerous time in human history.
If the world is safer, why does it seem more dangerous?
Availability bias Making a decision based on the information that comes to mind most quickly, rather than on more objective evidence Awareness What is Cognitive Bias?
The tendency to make errors in judgment based on cognitive factors
Facilitated by the natural inclination to choose the easiest, most efficient option Biases Facilitate Heuristics
Heuristic = A simple rule of thumb Example: Stereotypes The Shamdovian Heuristic:
Shamdovian = Bad The Availability Heuristic:
If something can be recalled, it must be important. Why is Bias?
HAVE dinner or BE dinner ?
Blame the Brain
Species survival and bias evolved in tandem. BUT… Societal evolution has significantly outpaced species evolution.
And no upgrade in sight.
BIASES:
- Are human - Simplify complexity - Can be helpful, even necessary - Can be misleading - Are easily invisible - Are more easily recognized in others With all these biases, how do we ever make good decisions?
Two Mental Decision- Making Systems System 1: Fast, unconscious, effortless, automatic, error- prone, WYSIATI –
THE HOME OF BIASES System 2: Slow, conscious, effortful, reliable, logical, skeptical –
THE ANTI-BIAS MECHANISM
Example: Heard the new neighbors are from Shamdovia.
System 1: Shamdovian = Bad System 2: Whoa! Maybe we should get to know them better. Let’s take them a house-warming gift. I wonder if he plays golf. Recognition Fun With Politics Competing Headlines
“White House tells ex-staffers to defy congressional overreach”
vs.
“White house orders ex-staffers to stonewall Congress”
Source: knowhere.com Competing Headlines
“Biden’s climate plan: I’ll reach zero emissions by eliminating Trump’s corporate tax cuts”
vs. “Biden’s energy plan relies on raising taxes”
Source: knowhere.com
Confirmation Bias
Seeking and finding evidence that confirms your beliefs and ignoring evidence that does not Meet Ken…
• Plays competitive bridge • Leads a men’s group at church • Enjoys classical music • Would rather read than watch television • Prefers the National Geographic channel to ESPN Is Ken more likely:
A librarian or A construction worker ? US Bureau of Labor Statistics:
9,389,000 male construction workers
36,000 male librarians
260:1 Base Rate Neglect/Fallacy
Ignoring the base rate (the overall rate of occurrence) when judging how probable something is The grass is always greener… Brickman, Coates, and Janoff-Bulman “Lottery winners and accident victims: is happiness relative?” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 1978 Aug;36(8):917-27. Affective Forecasting
Judging your future emotional states based on how you feel now Where all the children are above average… Egocentricity Bias
Weighing information about yourself disproportionately in making judgments and decisions Idiot! “You’re a moron.” vs. “I was just having a bad day.” Fundamental Attribution Error
Believing that your own errors or failures are due to external circumstances, but others’ errors are due to intrinsic factors like character Lost vs. Found Pain vs. Pleasure
Pain of Pleasure losing of $20 finding $20 Loss Aversion
Losing hurts more than gaining feels good. Therefore…we prefer a risk- averse choice if the expected outcome is positive, but a risk-seeking choice to avoid negative outcomes But it’s MY mug… Kahneman, Knetsch, and Thaler, “Experimental Tests of the Endowment Effect and the Coase Theorem" Journal of Political Economy. 1990
Endowment Effect
The tendency for people to demand much more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it. I paid for it! Sunk Cost
Having difficulty giving up on something (a strategy, an employee, a process) after investing time, money, or training, even though the investment can’t be recovered
Halo Effect
Letting someone’s positive (or negative) qualities in one area influence overall perception of that individual We Over-rely on Recent Experience
Ignoring Regression to the Mean
Believing that someone who was successful in the past has a greater chance of achieving further success Approach or Avoid?
In-group Out-group In-group vs Out-group
Birds of a feather…
…stranger danger
In-group Bias
Perceiving people who are similar to oneself (in ethnicity, religion, socioeconomic status, profession, etc.) more positively For just a dollar a day, less than a cup of coffee…
OR $365 per year, the cost of two romantic dinners with the spouse… Framing Effect
Drawing different conclusions from the same information, depending on how that information is presented Planning a Family Vacation Some Biases Affective forecasting Fundamental attribution error Availability bias Halo effect Base rate fallacy Ignoring regression to Confirmation bias the mean Egocentricity bias In-group bias Endowment effect Loss aversion Framing effect Sunk cost Planning a Family Vacation
SPOUSE #1: What do you think we should do for our family vacation this year? SPOUSE #2: Let’s take the kids camping. I love camping. The outdoors is great! The fresh air. Being in nature. Sleeping under the stars. SPOUSE #1: I’m not as enthused as you, and I don’t think Claire and Emily will be. No flush toilets. No TV. No internet. Bugs. SPOUSE #2: But we have all that camping gear in the garage. And we haven’t used it for years. We invested in that great family tent, that pricey outdoor kitchen. And all those comfortable camp chairs. And I just read an article where experts say camping is an ideal family vacation. SPOUSE #1: Well, what about safety? I just read about a mountain lion attack in a national park. Do we really want to risk our children’s lives for a vacation? SPOUSE #2: OK. How about a cruise? I would be most comfortable on a Disney Cruise, where there are a lot of other families like ours. It’ll be nice. SPOUSE #1: Well, we did have the best vacation of our life on that cruise before the kids were born. SPOUSE #2: And you have all those frequent flyer points from your work travel. We could use those! SPOUSE #1: I hate to use them. What if we don’t have fun? Then they’re all gone. SPOUSE #2: Look at it this way – even if it’s not the vacation of a lifetime, at least we’ll meet new people and see different stuff. It beats a staycation, shampooing the carpet and cleaning the garage. Mitigation Back to the movies…
Bias happens.
We can choose if and how to ACT on our biases. Mitigation 1. Awareness 2. Recognition 3. Response 4. Practice Mitigation Overview Internal: • Exercise meta-cognition • THINK ABOUT YOUR THINKING • BE YOUR OWN DEVIL’S ADVOCATE • RESIST THE URGE FOR EARLY CLOSURE External: • Structure safeguards – • Checklists, objective criteria • Seek diversity of perspectives • Challenge others Food for thought:
•Think about bias at your job.
•Where can you make a difference?
•What concrete steps can you take? brains Your Rx: 1. Be aware 2. Recognize 3. Respond 4. Practice Resource List
• Books • Ariely, Dan. (2008). Predictably irrational: the hidden forces that shape our decisions. New York: HarperCollins • Banaji, Mahzarin R. (2013). Blindspot : hidden biases of good people. New York: Delacorte Press, • Kahneman, Daniel. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York :Farrar, Straus and Giroux, • Ross, Howard. (2014). Everyday bias: identifying and navigating unconscious judgments in our daily lives. Lanham, [Maryland] ; Boulder ; New York ; London : Rowman & Littlefield • Articles • Benson, B. (2018) Cognitive bias cheat sheet. Better humans https://betterhumans.coach.me/cognitive-bias-cheat-sheet-55a472476b18 • Halvorson, H. G., & Rock, D. (2015). Beyond bias. Strategy + Business, https://www.strategy- business.com/article/00345 • Yagoda, B. (2018). Your lying mind: The cognitive biases tricking your brain, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/09/cognitive-bias/565775/ • Websites • https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/ • Podcasts • Choiceology. https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/podcast [email protected] www.Grenhart.com Thank you for your participation!