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The Politics of Chicago City Council Elections, 1979-1995

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The Politics of Chicago City Council Elections, 1979-1995 Loyola University Chicago Loyola eCommons Dissertations Theses and Dissertations 1997 The Politics of Chicago City Council Elections, 1979-1995 Timothy B. Krebs Loyola University Chicago Follow this and additional works at: https://ecommons.luc.edu/luc_diss Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Krebs, Timothy B., "The Politics of Chicago City Council Elections, 1979-1995" (1997). Dissertations. 3689. https://ecommons.luc.edu/luc_diss/3689 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses and Dissertations at Loyola eCommons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Loyola eCommons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License. Copyright © 1997 Timothy B. Krebs LOYOLA UNIVERSITY CHICAGO THE POLITICS OF CHICAGO CITY COUNCIL ELECTIONS, 1979-1995 A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL IN CANDIDACY FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE BY TIMOTHY BERRY KREBS CHICAGO, ILLINOIS JANUARY 1997 Copyright by Timothy Berry Krebs, 1997 All rights reserved. ii ACDIOWLBDGMENTS I would like to thank many people for the advice and assistance that they have given me over the past two years while I have been engaged in this project. I am very grateful to the staff at both the City of Chicago's Harold Washington Library and the Illinois State Board of Elections for the data and help they provided me. John Frendreis read the entire manuscript and made invaluable suggestions concerning issues related to research design and methodology. Beth Henschen also read parts of the manuscript and made many helpful suggestions about argumentation and style. Travis Cook aided with much of the formatting of the final document and I am grateful to him. I am particularly in debt to John Pelissero, who directed this dissertation project. Without his leadership and insight into Chicago politics, and political science generally, I could not have completed this work. He has also been a close friend and mentor. Finally, and most importantly, I would like to thank my wife, Kristen, whose love, encouragement, and infinite patience are deeply appreciated. iii To Kristen TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. • • • • . • . • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • . • • • • • . • • • • . iii LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS .. • • • • • . • . • • • • • . • • . vi LIST OF TABLES. vii Chapter I. CITY COUNCIL ELECTION POLITICS.................... 1 II. RESEARCH DESIGN................................... 37 III. DYNAMICS AND COMPETITION IN CITY COUNCIL ELECTIONS. • . • . • . • • . • . • . 92 IV. INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE AND CANDIDATE STRATEGY IN CITY COUNCIL ELECTIONS ..•.•..................... 142 V. CAMPAIGN FUNDRAISING IN CITY COUNCIL ELECTIONS •... 180 VI. UNDERSTANDING CITY COUNCIL ELECTIONS: THE CASE OF CHICAGO ....••.........••....•..•.... 224 REFERENCES. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 2 54 VITA .................................................... 265 v LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS 1. Percentage of wards with candidates Who Ran Unopposed. • • . • • . • • . • • • • • . • . • • . • • . 9 5 2. candidates Who Received between 51 and 60 Percent of the Vote ••••...•.•••.••..••...•.... 97 3. Candidates Who Received 50 Percent or Less of the Vote. • • • . • • . • • . • . • . • • . 99 4. Candidates Who Received 60 Percent or More of the Vote .................................... 100 5. Incumbents• Average Vote Margin and Percent Who Win. • • • . • . • . • . • . • 149 6. Average Incumbent and Opposition Campaign Spending. 155 7. Fundraising Differences, Chicago City Council candidates .•.......•...•...•...... 188 8. Fundraising by Chicago City council Candidates, 1991 ........................................... 193 9. Fundraising by Chicago City Council Candidates, 1995. 195 10. Runoff Fundraising, Chicago City Council Candidates, 1991. • • • . • • • • . • . • . • . • . 196 11. Runoff Fundraising, Chicago City Council Candidates, 1995..... • . • . • . 199 vi LIST OF TABLES 1. Model of Election Outcomes, Chicago City Council Elections, 1979-1995 .•••.•••...•.•..... 66 2. The Incumbency Advantage and Challenger Behavior Models, Chicago City Council Elections, 1979-1995...................................... 74 3. Model of Candidates' Total Contributions, Chicago City Council Elections, 1979-1995 ..•......•.... 87 4. Bivariate Correlations between Candidates' Vote Percentage and Model Variables, Chicago City Council Elections, 1979-1995, ......•...•..•...• 106 5. Candidates' Vote Percentage, Chicago City Council Elections, 1979-1995, by Election Year ......... 112 6. Candidates' Vote Percentage, Chicago City Council Elections, 1979-1995, Pooled Model(OLS) ...•.... 115 7. Candidates' Vote Percentage in Races that Involve Incumbents, Chicago City Council Elections, 1979-1995, by Election Year (OLS) ..•......•..•. 118 8. Nonincumbent Candidates' Vote Percentage, Chicago City Council Elections, 1979-1995, (OLS) . • . 121 9. candidates' Vote Percentage, Chicago City Council Elections in Majority Black Wards, 1979-1995, By Election Year (OLS) ...•..................... 126 10. Candidates' Vote Percentage, Chicago City Council Elections in Majority White Wards, 1979-1995, By Election Year (OLS) ..•...•.................. 127 11. Candidates' Vote Percentage, Chicago City Council Runoff Elections, 1979-1995, Pooled Model (OLS) . • . 131 12. Incumbents' Vote Percentage, Chicago City Council Elections, 1979-1995 {OLS) ...•..........•...... 150 vii 13. Incumbents' Vote Margin, Chicago City Council Elections, 1979-1995 (OLS) ....•...••.•.•••..•.. 156 14. Number of Candidates by Ward, Chicago City Council Elections, 1979-1995 (OLS) ••••..............•.. 161 15. Nonincumbent Candidate Quality, Chicago City Council Elections, 1979-1995 (OLS) .••.••.. 164 16. Number of Incumbent Challengers, Chicago City Council Elections, 1979-1995 {OLS) ••..••.. 169 17. Challenger Quality, Chicago City Council Elections,1979-1995 (OLS) •••••...••.........•.. 172 18. Factors Influencing Fundraising by Chicago City Council Candidates in the 1991 Elections ....... 207 19. Factors Influencing Fundraising by Chicago City Council Candidates in the 1995 Elections •..••.. 210 20. Factors Influencing Fundraising by Chicago City Council Challengers in the 1991 Elections ..•... 216 21. Factors Influencing Fundraising by Chicago City Council C~allengers in the 1995 Elections .....• 218 viii CHAPTER I CITY COUBCIL BLBCTIOH POLITICS Those who seek public off ice in the city of Chicago are drawn into the political arena for a variety of reasons. Many want the opportunity to exercise political power and to satisfy their personal ambitions. Others seek office in order to serve the public and to improve their communities. Regardless of motivation, political ambition seems to define Chicago politics. In elections held between 1979 and 1995, 1,135 candidates ran for the 50-member city council. 1 More importantly, the number of candidates who ran in 1995 (289) was 122 percent more than the number who ran in 1979 (130). 2 Thus, interest in serving on the Chicago city council appears to have become more intense over time. Of the many candidates who seek local off ice, which ones are the most successful? Do incumbents dominate election outcomes and, if so, why? In what ways does the political environment affect when candidates run for off ice? How does campaign finance affect election outcomes? The 1This total excludes candidates who ran in special elections. 2The increase in the total number of candidates running for alderman occurred despite their being no real change in the average number of open seat contests in these five elections. The average number of open seat elections was 6.2, with a standard deviation of 1.5. 2 purpose of this study is to assess these issues in local politics by examining four aspects of city council elections: the factors that determine election outcomes, the advantages of incumbency, the behavior of candidates challenging incumbents, and the role of money in local election campaigns. In order to answer these questions a dataset including more than 700 Chicago city council candidates who campaigned for alderman between 1979 and 1995 was collected. Although others have examined factors that explain election outcomes (see Lieske 1989), this study adds to the literature by studying a larger number of candidates over a longer period of time than is found in most studies of city council elections. The determinants of when candidates' decision to run for office and how money influences the local political process, however, are two areas of the urban politics literature that, to date, either have not been examined or have not been examined very thoroughly. As a consequence this study will enable us to more fully understand local politics and city council election dynamics. The first section of this chapter discusses how city councils and city council elections have been viewed in the urban politics literature, with specific attention paid to Prewitt•s (1970) work on San Francisco Bay Area cities. In this section I seek to set the context for a more political understanding of city council politics. The second section 3 discusses factors related to electoral success in city council elections. By way of comparison, I also discuss findings of scholars who study congressional elections, especially those relating to the advantages of incumbency.
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