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The Geopolitical Importance of the Ypg-Controlled Areas in Syria Energy and Water Resources, and Agricultural Lands

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The Geopolitical Importance of the Ypg-Controlled Areas in Syria Energy and Water Resources, and Agricultural Lands THE GEOPOLITICAL IMPORTANCE OF THE YPG-CONTROLLED AREAS IN SYRIA ENERGY AND WATER RESOURCES, AND AGRICULTURAL LANDS MEHMET ÇAĞATAY GÜLER PERSPECTIVE MARCH 2019 . No 52 • Which natural resources did the YPG seize control of after its engagement with the U.S.? • What is the extent of YPG-controlled natural resources and what is the YPG’s energy trade capacity? • How important are these resources? INTRODUCTION operated there. In addition to non-state actors, the According to current data, the YPG is in possession of same areas have been attracting the attention of differ- an area of approximately 50,000 km2, which consti- ent regional and international powers. Therefore, the tutes 30% of Syria’s total surface area. Among the areas critical geopolitical significance of the YPG-controlled under YPG control, there are highly valuable energy areas ought to be extensively analyzed so as to compre- (petroleum and natural gas) and water resources, not hend the struggle in the region and to be able to make to mention agricultural lands. To be more precise, 50% more reliable assessments. of Syria’s irrigable lands, 70% of its energy resources, and 95% of its water potential are in the parts of Syria ENERGY RESOURCES that are under the YPG terrorist organization’s control. To begin with, 70% of Syria’s total energy resources In other words, the most crucial factors that have been including the regions of Deir ez-Zor, Hasaka, Homs, determining Syria’s GDP do not serve the same civil- and Raqqa, are under the control of the YPG ter- ian purposes any longer. Syrian nationals have been rorist organization. Furthermore, more than a dozen suffering and migrating since they do not have access oil fields located on the east coast of the Deir ez-Zor to fresh water, food, energy, and other related prod- district, specifically al-Omar, the largest oil field in ucts. The reconstruction cost has been increasing and the country, are controlled by the YPG.1 (Figure 1) the gap to compensate these costs has been widening. Just the oil fields located on the east coast of the Deir Prior to the YPG, DAESH, a terrorist organi- ez-Zor district constitute 30% of Syria’s total energy zation that was once very influential, controlled the exact same territory. The geopolitically advantageous 1. Mehmet Çağatay Güler, “Suriye’de Devrim ve Enerji Jeopolitiği”, Su- riyegundemi, http://www.suriyegundemi.com/2018/11/30/suriyede- status of this region was the main reason why DAESH devrim-ve-enerji-jeopolitigi, (Accessed January 28, 2019). MEHMET ÇAĞATAY GÜLER Mehmet Çağatay Güler received a BA from the International Relations Department at Hacettepe University. He has also received an education in Political Sciences and International Relations at Sapienza University of Rome, Italy. Güler has conducted research for his master thesis in the Department of Social Sciences at Hamburg University. Currently, he is pursuing his master degree in Middle East Technical University, Department of Eurasian Studies. His research interests revolve around the Eurasian Geography with a particular focus on energy and water politics, and Russian foreign policy. PERSPECTIVE THE GEOPOLITICAL IMPORTANCE OF THE YPG-CONTROLLED AREAS IN SYRIA: ENERGY AND WATER RESOURCES, AND AGRICULTURAL LANDS FIGURE 14 resources.2 Most of the drilled oil has been used as ty, Syria’s largest natural gas facility (around 4.6 billion an export commodity and the rest has been refined m3 yearly production),5 has been under the control of in the small, handmade refineries to acquire kero- YPG forces. Considering the regime’s current natural sene, benzene, gasoline, and fuel oil. Speaking of the gas production of 3.1 billion m3, Conoco’s impor- exportation of crude oil, the YPG’s current poten- tance becomes more apparent. In addition to the Con- tial is around 300,000 barrels per day.3 In this sense, oco facility, the YPG operates several other natural gas calculations based on the average price of Brent Oil fields. Today, the YPG controls more natural gas fields ($73.10) and the presumption that the YPG is able (estimated capacity of 4.5-5 billion m3)6 than the As- to utilize all its potential and to trade under the cur- sad regime (around 3 billion m3).7 Just like the oil rent prices, its approximate export revenue is $8 bil- production, most of the natural gas is exported and lion. (Figure 2)4 the remaining is converted to electricity via the natural Furthermore, the YPG is in possession of critical gas conversion plant in Cipse. Although its revenues natural gas fields. As such, Conoco Natural Gas Facili- are not as high as those of crude oil, natural gas also offers remarkable gains. As such, when calculations are 2. “Suriye’deki enerji kaynaklarının ne kadarı PYD’nin elinde?”, Anadolu Agency, February 9, 2018, https://www.ntv.com.tr/dunya/suriyedeki-ener- 5. “US-Backed Force Seizes Major Syria Gas Plant”, France24, November ji-kaynaklarinin-ne-kadari-pydnin-elinde,YeFYqGOsp0-lE7YcMcWCdA 23, 2017, https://www.france24.com/en/20170923-us-backed-force-seiz- 3. The potential is estimated by subtracting the Assad regime’s 2010 pro- es-major-syria-gas-plant duction and 2017 production. 6. The estimated capacity is calculated by subtracting the Assad regime’s 4. “Oil/Gas Fields and Refineries In Syria”, Suriyegundemi, http:// 2010 production and 2017 production. en.suriyegundemi.com/2018/11/23/oil-gas-fields-and-refineries-in-syria, 7. “BP Statistical Review of World Energy” (BP Report, London: 2018), (Accessed January 28, 2019). p. 28. 2 setav.org THE GEOPOLITICAL IMPORTANCE OF THE YPG-CONTROLLED AREAS IN SYRIA: ENERGY AND WATER RESOURCES, AND AGRICULTURAL LANDS FIGURE 28 made based on the average Henry Hub prices ($3.04) kWh.10 Almost all this electricity is realized via three and on the full utilization of its potential, the YPG’s main dams: Baath (75 MW),11 Tabqa (800 MW),12 natural gas export revenue is around 490 million dol- and Tishrin (630 MW).13 These three dams are locat- lars. (Figure 2)8 ed on the Euphrates River and all of them are under Lastly, apart from the oil and gas resources, the the control of the YPG - as is their electricity poten- YPG is in control of almost all of Syria’s hydroelectric tial. (Figure 2) To this end, the YPG does not need capacity. To be more specific, the installed hydroelec- tric capacity of the country is 1.5 million kW (1.51 10. “Hydroelectricity Net Generation 2010/Syria”, U.S. Energy Information 9 Administration, International Energy Statistics, https://www.eia.gov/beta/ GW ) and the yearly production of electricity before international/rankings/#?prodact=2-12&cy=2010&pid=33&aid=12&tl_ the outbreak of the civil war, was around 3 billion id=12-A&tl_type=a, (Accessed January 29, 2019). 11. “Power Plants/Hydro/Syrian Arab Republic/Baath Hydroelectric”, Global Energy Observatory, http://globalenergyobservatory.org/form. php?pid=41661, (Accessed January 30, 2019). 8. Mehmet Ç Güler, “The Syrian Revolution and the Geopolitics of Ener- 12. “Power Plants/Hydro/Syrian Arab Republic/Taqba Hydroelectric”, gy”, Suriyegundemi, http://en.suriyegundemi.com/2018/12/05/the-syri- Global Energy Observatory, http://globalenergyobservatory.org/form. an-revolution-and-the-geopolitics-of-energy, (Accessed January 28, 2019). php?pid=4166041661, (Accessed January 30, 2019). 9. “Hydropower in Syria”, World Energy Council, Hydropower Installed 13. “Power Plants/Hydro/Syrian Arab Republic/Teshreen Hydroelectric”, Capacity, https://www.worldenergy.org/data/resources/country/syria/hy- Global Energy Observatory, http://globalenergyobservatory.org/form. dropower/2011, (Accessed January 29, 2019). php?pid=41659, (Accessed January 30, 2019). setav.org 3 PERSPECTIVE THE GEOPOLITICAL IMPORTANCE OF THE YPG-CONTROLLED AREAS IN SYRIA: ENERGY AND WATER RESOURCES, AND AGRICULTURAL LANDS to convert a lot of natural gas to electricity since the constitutes 70% of Syria’s total water storage capac- hydropower it possesses is sufficient to meet most of ity. Likewise, the YPG is in control of all the waters its energy demand. obtained from the Tigris River (1.2 billion m3).20 In total, the YPG’s water potential reaches 15.2 billion WATER RESOURCES m3 or, in other terms, 97% of Syria’s total renewable Syria’s average annual precipitation is 252 mm14 and water resources. the annual renewable water resources are estimated at 16 billion m3 (6 billion m3 groundwater + 12 billion AGRICULTURAL LANDS m3 surface water - 2 billion m3 overlap of both).15 Regarding agricultural data, Syria’s total agricultural Regarding the water sources, Syria has 16 rivers and lands cover 18 million ha,21 its arable agricultural their tributaries.16 The most important water sources lands are estimated at 6 million ha22, and its irri- in Syria are the rivers Euphrates, Tigris, Orontes, Af- gable agricultural lands are only 1.5 million ha.23 rin, Nahr al-Kabir al-Janoubi, and Yarmouk. Among When we analyze the irrigable lands city by city, these sources, the Euphrates River stands out as the Hasakah, Aleppo, Raqqa, and Hama come to the largest and most important source since it constitutes fore,24 while Deir ez-Zor, Damascus, Homs, and 97% of the country’s total usable water resources (15 Idlib follow. Among them, Hasakah, which is un- billion m3).17 Therefore, the status of the Euphrates der YPG control, has the most irrigable lands with River is the most critical issue in Syrian water poli- around 480,000 ha25 (a third of the total irrigable tics. In this regard, the YPG takes the lion’s share as it lands in the country). Likewise, Raqqa, also under keeps the largest dam (Tabqa Dam) under its control.
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