New England Patriots
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New England Patriots 2019 Record: 12-4 Total DVOA: 30.8% (2nd) 2020 Mean Projection: 8.5 wins On the Clock (0-4): 7% Pythagorean Wins: 13.1 (2nd) Offense: 4.1% (11st) Postseason Odds: 54.8% Mediocrity (5-7): 28% Snap-Weighted Age: 28.6 (1st) Defense: -25.5% (1st) Super Bowl Odds: 7.5% Playoff Contender (8-10): 42% Average Opponent: -5.8% (32nd) Special Teams: 1.2% (11st) Proj. Avg. Opponent: -0.5% (21st) Super Bowl Contender (11+): 24% 2019: The end of an era. 2020: Superman swoops in to replace Tom Brady and save the Patriots. o amount of bidding farewell can do the Tom Brady era son. Of those 17, only Mike McMahon of the 2002 Lions en- N any justice. Six Super Bowl rings, 14 Pro Bowls (10 of tered the year as the Week 1 starter after having started fewer them in a row, at that), three MVPs, a host of NFL career than four games as a rookie. McMahon lost all four starts records—everything there was to accomplish, Brady did it in before being benched in favor of Joey Harrington. Over the his 20 years with the Patriots. He was the point man for the next four years, McMahon started just seven more games (all dynasty to end all dynasties. Every quarterback for the rest of with the Eagles in 2005) before being pushed to the CFL. The the sport’s lifespan will be chasing Brady. only other somewhat comparable player in recent memory is “Inevitable” is the only way to capture the Patriots’ suffocat- Trevor Siemian, who was a seventh-round pick in 2015 rather ing run of dominance with Brady. Our projections have placed than a mid-rounder. The Broncos handed Siemian the keys to the Patriots in the top five for total DVOA every season since be the Week 1 starter in 2016 when they quickly realized in 2007. In all but four of those seasons, the Patriots did indeed training camp that rookie first-round pick Paxton Lynch was finish in the top five for total DVOA, and they never once not going to be ready. Siemian is now an unsigned free agent slipped outside of the top 10. We, both Football Outsiders and coming off a couple of years as a decent backup. any halfway informed football fan, always expected the Pa- Yet true to form, Belichick waited until the final hour to triots to be elite and they always were. In the years to come, make the savvy move that every non-Patriots fan feared. On the Patriots may still be a force to reckon with and regular June 28, the slim chance of Newton stepping in for Brady be- favorites to win the ever-troubled AFC East, but the looming came a reality. The former MVP signed a one-year, $1.75-mil- feeling that the Patriots were inevitable goes as Brady goes. lion deal that could ramp up to nearly $8 million through a As the Patriots stumbled into their first Brady-less offsea- handful of incentives. Bringing in Newton at the $20 million son in decades, the possibilities for the GOAT’s replacement price tag Teddy Bridgewater got from the Panthers would seemed endless. Many expected the Patriots to pursue Andy have been a nice deal for the Patriots, but this? Less than $10 Dalton, who eventually signed with the Dallas Cowboys for million for a former MVP who was in top form when he was $3 million, or trade for someone along the lines of Derek last healthy in 2018? Only Belichick could get away with such Carr. Before Ryan Tannehill re-signed with the Titans, he was outrageous theft. floated as an option to fill in for Brady. Even Jameis Winston A healthy Cam Newton changes what is possible for a post- and Cam Newton, though both more aggressive than what Bill Brady future. Dalton, Carr, Winston, etc., are far from bad Belichick prefers in a quarterback, were mentioned in discus- quarterbacks, but none have quite the same pedigree or ceil- sions about possible Patriots starters. When none of that came ing as Newton. With Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa expected to fruition by late April, the assumption was that they would to be drafted well before the Patriots got a shot at them, as make a move on draft weekend. That option bore no action ei- they were, there was no clear star option in the draft, either. ther. Through months of inaction, it seemed as though Belich- Newton was the only available quarterback with trajectory- ick was handing his vote of confidence to 2019 fourth-round changing star power. pick Jarrett Stidham. Aside from Newton’s general wealth of talent, it works in What a disaster that would have been. Assuming Stidham the Patriots’ favor that Newton’s most recent season of full was going to be the starting quarterback, the Patriots offense play was a closer approximation to what he will be asked to do was projected outside of the top 20 in DVOA, well below their in New England than any of his previous seasons were. From norm. In addition to problems across the rest of the offense— 2011 to 2017, Newton played in offenses that emphasized we’ll get to that in a moment—Stidham had unimpressive col- play-action, shot plays, and intermediate route combinations lege metrics. There also isn’t much history of mid-round picks intended to target the area outside the numbers. Carolina’s such as Stidham successfully starting in Year 2 despite having dropback passing game for much of Newton’s career revolved no rookie starting experience. around deep drops in the pocket with little to no checkdown Since 2000, 17 players selected between the third and fifth or underneath options to speak of, instead leaving Newton to round started more than four games in their second NFL sea- be his own checkdown as a runner. Yes, Newton himself had 164 FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS ALMANAC 2020 SAMPLE 165 2019 NE DVOA by Week 2020 Patriots Schedule 100% Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 80% 1 MIA 7 SF 13 at LAC 60% 2 at SEA 8 at BUF 14 at LAR (Thu.) 40% 3 LV 9 at NYJ (Mon.) 15 at MIA 20% 4 at KC 10 BAL 16 BUF (Mon.) 0% 5 DEN 11 at HOU 17 NYJ 6 BYE 12 ARI -20% -40% -60% a characteristic handful of misfires each game. But Newton’s -80% completion percentage and overall efficiency suffered more -100% often than not because he was playing in aggressive offenses with minimal wide receiver talent. The 2018 version of Newton and the Panthers passing of- fense was a different beast. While shot plays and play-action 2016 Newton would have gotten. Rather, Belichick should be were present, the passing offense shifted more towards decep- looking to use Newton as a runner almost exclusively in high- tion via shifts and motion, spacing in the quick game, and leverage situations (short yardage, red zone, goal line, etc.) trust in running back Christian McCaffrey to carry the burden instead of as a key feature for the offense at large. of the offense as a heavily used checkdown option. Newton’s With all that Newton provides through both the air and 2018 average depth of target of 7.4 yards was down from his ground, it comes as no surprise that substituting him for 2016 and 2017 marks of 11.0 yards and 8.9 yards, respectively. Stidham dramatically changes the outlook for the Patriots of- Save for the use of Newton’s legs, the overarching theme of fense. Having an offense geared towards Newton’s safety and Carolina’s offense that year was not terribly different from the newfound passing identity is only part of the puzzle, though. theme of some of New England’s offense with Brady. Many Newton will have to call on his experience in making up for of New England’s recent offenses have leaned toward heavier middling skill talent from his Carolina days, which our pro- personnel sets, whereas the Panthers did not have that luxury, jections expect him to do. Josh McDaniels remaining on staff but a good chunk of the pass concepts and ideas were simi- to call plays will be a plus for Newton, but each position group lar. So was the lingo, as Norv Turner comes from the same on offense needs questions answered. Erhardt-Perkins offensive tree as Josh McDaniels. New England’s pass-catching corps has concerns all up and Carolina’s offensive renovations helped quell Newton’s re- down the depth chart. The healthy return of slot star Julian Edel- curring issue of posting a low completion percentage. Even man is a welcomed boost, but he does not solve New England’s with a shoulder injury slowing him down over the second half issues with wide receiver play on the outside. 2019 first-round of 2018, Newton finished the year with a career-high 67.9% pick N’Keal Harry was woefully underwhelming for most of completion rate. His previous high was 61.7% in 2013. In his rookie year. Jakobi Meyers surprised as an undrafted rookie kind, Newton also finished with his career best in Completion contributor, but projecting him as more than a role player mov- Percentage Over Expected. Newton’s MVP campaign netted ing forward is a hair optimistic. Trading for Mohammed Sanu a lukewarm +0.4% completion rate over expected, followed midway through last year did not provide the results the team by bottom-three finishes in 2016 and 2017.