Democrats Favor Gore in ’04

ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: DEMOCRATS ’04 – 7/15/02 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 10 A.M. Thursday, July 18, 2002

Al Gore, winner of the popular vote for president in 2000, is the overwhelming choice among Democrats to try it again in 2004.

Much can and will happen between now and the far-off 2004 elections. But for now, in a matchup against five possible opponents, Gore gets 50 percent support for his party’s presidential nomination, dwarfing the opposition. Sens. Tom Daschle, John Kerry and John Edwards, Rep. Dick Gephardt and Gov. Howard Dean are all in the single digits.

Twenty percent have no opinion; if they all went to one candidate (implausible) he’d still trail Gore by around 2-1. Thus Gore’s challenge, if he runs, is to keep the support he’s got; the others’ task, more difficult, is to wrest it away from Gore.

Preference for ’04 Democratic nomination Gore 50% Daschle 9 Kerry 7 Gephardt 7 Edwards 3 Dean 1 Other 4 No opin. 20

These results are better for Gore than in some other recent polls. That’s apparently because they’ve included Hillary Rodham Clinton as a candidate (she’s said she won’t run) and Bill Bradley (who’s made no sign he will).

LIEBERMAN – Sen. Joseph Lieberman has said he won’t run if Gore does. Without Gore, Lieberman leads the pack with 21 percent support, Daschle 14, Gephardt 13, Kerry 10 and Edwards and Dean in single digits.

Without Gore Lieberman 21% Daschle 14 Gephardt 13 Kerry 10 Edwards 7 Dean 3 Other 4 No opin. 29

With Gore and Lieberman both in the mix – anything can happen – Gore’s still far out in front, with 46 percent support. Lieberman has 10 percent; the rest, single digits.

With Gore and Lieberman Gore 46% Lieberman 10 Daschle 8 Kerry 6 Gephardt 5 Edwards 3 Dean 1 Other 3 No opin. 18

Polls this far from an actual election mainly measure name recognition, which Gore has in buckets, and which Lieberman gained, in lesser measure, in 2000. But that’s not nothing: There’s quite a bit to be said for name recognition, as George W. Bush will attest. In a March 1999 ABC/Post poll, Bush led the GOP pack with 52 percent support, better than 2-1 over his nearest competitor, Elizabeth Dole.

The results in this poll are among self-identified Democrats and independents who lean Democrat, but they’re essentially same – within a point or two – among Democrats only. Gore’s support slips slightly among people who seem likeliest to vote, but it’s early for that gauge to mean much – and he still leads by a 3-1 margin, or better.

GROUPS – While Gore leads among all groups, his support peaks among Democrats who are younger, less-educated, nonwhite, conservative, suburban or born-again Protestants, and its lower among their opposites. These are quibbles, though, for a potential candidate with 50 percent support in a six-way race.

Gore Support among leaned Democrats Age 18-30 65% Age 61+ 40

Conservative 61 Moderate or liberal 48

Nonwhite 59 White 44

South 56 West 42

HS/less 56 College/more 44

Evangelical Prot. 56 Not evangelical 43

Suburban 55 Rural 44

METHODOLOGY - This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone July 11-15, 2002, among a random national sample of 1,512 adults, including 682 self- identified Democrats and independents who lean Democrat. The results among leaned Democrats have a four-point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, PA.

Analysis by Gary Langer.

ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet at: http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/PollVault/PollVault.html

Media contact: Todd Polkes, (212) 456-4586

Results used in this analysis follow. Additional results are being released in subsequent reports. * = less than 0.5 percent

49. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) Suppose your state holds a Democratic primary or caucus for president in 2004 and the candidates are (Tom Daschle, Howard Dean, John Edwards, Richard Gephardt, Al Gore, John Kerry, and Joseph Lieberman.) For whom would you vote?

50. (ASKED IF GORE/LIEBERMAN AT Q49) If he doesn't run, who would be your second choice?

With Gore, Lieberman:

Daschle Dean Edwards Gephardt Gore Kerry Lieberman Other DK 7/15/02 8 1 3 5 46 6 10 3 18

Without Gore:

Daschle Dean Edwards Gephardt Kerry Lieberman Other DK 7/15/02 14 3 7 13 10 21 4 29

Without Lieberman:

Daschle Dean Edwards Gephardt Gore Kerry Other DK 7/15/02 9 1 3 7 50 7 4 20

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