2018 Mid-Term Election Results

Katie Cullen and Charlie Shipp SC Partners Washington, DC November 7, 2018 2018 Takeaways & Trends l Democrats Seize House – Democrats massed a huge lead among college educated women in battleground districts – Republicans remained strong with men, religious voters in battleground districts l Republicans Extend Senate Majority – Unseated several Democratic incumbents and appear to have fended off some formidable challenges – Results in Arizona, Florida, Mississippi’s special election and Montana are not final Senate Overview

l 54 Republicans vs. 46 Democrats (based on projected outcomes) l Key Races – Red = Republican Winner/Lead; Blue = Democrat Winner/Lead – New Jersey – Robert Menendez (D) vs. Bob Hugin (R) – Florida – Bill Nelson (D) vs. (R) - (Lead) – West Virginia – (D) vs. Patrick Morrisey (R) – Tennessee – (R) vs. Phil Bredesen (D) – Mississippi – Cindy Hyde Smith (R) vs. Mike Espy (D) – Runoff – Indiana – Joe Donnelly (D) vs. (R) – Wisconsin – (D) vs. Leah Vukmir (R) – Minnesota – (D) vs. Karin Housley (R) – Missouri – Claire McCaskill (D) vs. (R) – – (D) vs. Kevin Cramer (R) – Texas – (R) vs. Beto O’Rourke (D) – Montana – (D) vs. Matt Rosendale (R) – Arizona – Martha McSally (R) (Lead) vs. (D) – Nevada – Dean Heller (R) vs. (D) 2018 Senate Outlook Favored the GOP – "Bigly" l Democrats faced long odds – 25 Democrat held seats were in cycle – Were able to defend many in states that voted for Trump (MI, OH, PA, WI, WV), have an edge in MT, but lost in others (FL*, IN, MO) – Democrats won NV, but missed pickup opportunities in AZ*, TX and TN. l Republicans had effective defense – Dean Heller (NV) was the sole GOP Senator seeking reelection in a state Clinton won in 2016. Heller was a clean energy champion on the Senate Finance Committee. – Arizona also came into play with Jeff Flake’s retirement – Fended off unexpectedly strong challenges in TN and TX, and likely AZ* *Republican leads Veteran Pols, Freshmen Senators

Senator, Party, State Notes

Mitt Romney (R-UT) During his run for the Presidency, Romney mocked President Obama’s “unhealthy obsession with green jobs.” But now that those jobs are a reality in Republican states, many are changing their tune. Romney could join them as homegrown Utah companies like Vivint and Wasatch Wind grow and other developers seek opportunities in the state. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) Cramer campaigned strongly in favor of President Trump’s energy policy— including the end of the “war on coal.” Cramer has been an ardent supporter of better incentives for carbon capture, utilization and storage technology for coal generation. In 2014, he joined 49 House members urging the House leadership to let the wind PTC expire. Martha McSally (R-AZ) During her tenure in the House, McSally focused her efforts on energy policy on (leads) shielding coal generating plants in Arizona from EPA regulation . This was framed as an effort to keep rural electric prices low. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) Blackburn faced a renewable energy developer in her election bid, who obviously would have been a strong supporter of renewables. She has a 0% 2017 score from the League of Conservation Voters and a 2% lifetime score from that organization. She led opposition expanding the ITC to include the “orphans” and signed anti-PTC letters. Senate Freshmen Continued…

Senator, Party, Sate Notes

Mike Braun (R-IN) Braun pledged to end the “war on coal.” He supports President Trump’s approach on trade policy, but understands tariffs are causing businesses short-term pain. He is not expected to be as big a clean energy backer as Donnelly. Josh Hawley (R-MO) Hawley attacked McCaskill as a left-wing environmentalist. Hawley campaigned on opposition to the Clean Power Plan. Missouri receives 80% of its electricity from coal.

Rick Scott (R-FL) As Governor, Scott signed a property tax exemption for residential and commercial renewable energy property. Scott’s critics pointed to numerous campaign contributions from interests. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) Rosen sponsored several solar energy related measures including the Solar VETS vocational education proposal and a bill rolling back the Trump Administration’s tariffs on solar energy products. Senate Leadership

l Majority Whip – Sen. (R-TX) is term limited – Leading Candidate: (R-SD) – Sen. Cornyn to continue as Senior Counselor to Sen. McConnell l Republican Conference Chairman – Leading Candidate: (R-WY) l Senate Republican Conference Committee Chairman: – Leading Candidate: (R-MO) l Conference Vice Chair – Leading Candidates: (R-NE), (R-IA) l NRSC Chairman – Leading Candidate: (R-IN), (R-UT) l Democratic Leadership appears unchanged – (D-NY), Minority Leader; (D-WA) Assistant Minority Leader Key Committees

l Finance – Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) retiring – Possible Replacements: (R-IA), (R-ID), Pat Roberts (R-KS), Mike Enzi (R-WY) – Notable Losses: Dean Heller (R-NV), Bill Nelson (D-FL)*, Claire McCaskill (D- MO) l Energy & Natural Resources – (D-WA) could move to Commerce Ranking Member. Next most senior members include Sanders (I-VT), Stabenow (D-MI) and Manchin (D-WV). – Notable Losses: Jeff Flake (R-AZ) – retiring l Commerce, Science & Transportation – Possible leadership changes if Thune takes leadership role – New Ranking Member is possible if Bill Nelson is confirmed to lose – Notable losses: Dean Heller (R-NV), Bill Nelson (D-FL)*

* Opponent is leading Senate 2019 Agenda

l Nominations – A larger majority can get nominees through confirmation more easily, but executive branch nominees will be subject to more intense House oversight. l Infrastructure and Energy Policy – Build off the bipartisan support for S. 1460 (Murkowski-Cantwell) – S. 1460 or provisions from that bill could be incorporated into an infrastructure bill – Opportunity to push for revisions to BLM competitive leasing rules l Middle Class Tax Cut – President Trump indicated a willingness to adjust other rates to cut taxes on the middle class. Looking Ahead Senate 2020

l Notable Republican Incumbents in Cycle – (ME) – Joni Ernst (IA) – Cory Gardner (CO) – (NC) – Lamar Alexander (TN) l Notable Democratic Incumbents in Cycle – (NH) – (MI) – Tina Smith (MN) House of Representatives Election Overview l Current Breakdown – Republican: 235 – Democrats: 193 – Vacant: 7 l New Congress (projected) – Democrats: 229 – Republicans: 206 House Leadership

l Speaker – (D-CA) is the leading candidate – But some new members pledged not to support Pelosi l Majority Leader – Steny Hoyer (D-MD) will seek to return to this role l Republican Leader? – Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has won support from President Trump recently – More conservative members like Jim Jordan (R-OH) or Steve Scalise (R-LA) could make a bid House Democratic Energy Agenda

l Climate Change – House Democratic leaders do not want to undertake a big climate & energy bill, like Waxman-Markey, while President Trump is in office. They understand this is politically perilous and practically useless. l Infrastructure – House Democratic leadership is eager to include smaller scale green initiatives in their infrastructure agenda. These could include changes to energy policy or adjustments to the tax code. – In speeches and interviews last evening, Leader Pelosi mentioned infrastructure and prescription drug prices as areas where House Democrats could work with the President. Key Committees

l Ways & Means – Expected Chairman: Richard Neal (D-MA) – Notable Losses: Sam Johnson (R-TX) [Ret.]; Dave Reichert (R-WA) [Ret.]; Pete Roskam (R-IL); Lynn Jenkins (R-KS) [Ret.]; Erik Paulsen (R-MN); Jim Renacci (R-OH) [Ret.]; Carlos Curbelo (R-FL); Mike Bishop (R-MI); Sander Levin (D-MI) [Ret.]; Joseph Crowley (D-NY) l Energy & Commerce – Expected Chairman: Frank Pallone (D-NJ) – Notable Losses: Joe Barton (R-TX) [Ret.]; Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) [Senate]; Leonard Lance (R-NJ); Kevin Cramer (R-ND) [Senate]; Ryan Costello (R-PA); l Natural Resources – Expected Chairman: Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) – Notable Losses: Steve Pearce (R-NM) [Ret.] l Appropriations – Expected Chairman: Nita Lowey (D-NY) – Notable Losses: Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ) [Ret.]; John Culberson (R-TX); Kevin Yoder (R-KS); Thomas Rooney (R-FL) [Ret.]; David Young (R-IA); Scott Taylor (R- VA) 2018 Election & Clean Energy Supporters in the House

l Several Republican Clean Energy Supporters Lost – Prominent GOP Climate Leaders: Carlos Curbelo (R-FL), Mia Love (R-UT)*, Eric Paulsen (R-MN), Barbara Comstock (R-VA) – Wind Energy Supporters: David Young (R-IA), Rod Blum (R-IA), Kevin Yoder (R-KS), Mike Coffman (R-CO), Claudia Tenney (R- NY), Peter Roskam (R-IL) l New Potential Allies with Clean Energy Experience – Mike Levin (D-CA) (lead) – Lawyer for clean energy companies – Sean Casten (D-IL) – Energy efficiency entrepreneur – Ben McAdams (D-UT) (lead) – Spearheaded energy efficiency and clean transportation initiatives as Salt Lake County Mayor – Other Democrats taking pro-clean energy stances

* Opponent leading Governors l Current Breakdown – 33 Republicans, 17 Democrats, 1 Independent l Projected Breakdown – 27 Republicans, 23 Democrats l Notable Races – Brian Kemp (R-GA) leads Stacy Abrams (D-GA) by 1.7% – Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM) reclaims the New Mexico Governorship for Democrats Energy Ballot Initiatives

l Arizona: requiring 50% renewable electricity by 2030: failed l Nevada: Quarantine the state’s electric monopoly: failed l Nevada: requiring 50% renewable electricity by 2030: passed l Washington: Imposing a $15 per ton price on carbon dioxide emissions: failed l Colorado: to ban oil & gas drilling in large portions of the state: failed l California: to repeal a gas tax increase: failed Transition Schedule

l November 13-16: Freshman Orientation l November 14: House Republican Leadership Election l November 15: House Republican Conference Rules and Steering Committee l November 19-23: Thanksgiving Recess l November 27-30: House and Senate return, Chairs/Ranking Members steering committee meeting, possible House Democratic Leadership election 28th or 29th l December 7: Continuing Resolution (CR) expires l January 3: 116th Congress convenes l January or February: Committee assignments finalized l February: State of the Union