Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4073–4101, 2017 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4073-2017 © Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Waning habitats due to climate change: the effects of changes in streamflow and temperature at the rear edge of the distribution of a cold-water fish José María Santiago1, Rafael Muñoz-Mas2, Joaquín Solana-Gutiérrez1, Diego García de Jalón1, Carlos Alonso1, Francisco Martínez-Capel2, Javier Pórtoles3, Robert Monjo3, and Jaime Ribalaygua3 1Laboratorio de Hidrobiología, ETSI Montes, Forestal y Medio Natural, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Camino de las Moreras s/n, Madrid 28040, Spain 2Institut d’Investigació per a la Gestió Integrada de Zones Costaneres (IGIC), Universitat Politècnica de València, C/ Paranimf 1, Grau de Gandia, Valencia 46730, Spain 3Fundación para la Investigación del Clima, C/ Tremps 11. Madrid 28040, Spain Correspondence to: José María Santiago (
[email protected]) Received: 18 November 2016 – Discussion started: 9 January 2017 Revised: 16 June 2017 – Accepted: 7 July 2017 – Published: 14 August 2017 Abstract. Climate changes affect aquatic ecosystems by al- edge of the distribution of this species. However, geology tering temperatures and precipitation patterns, and the rear will affect the extent of this shift. Approaches like the one edges of the distributions of cold-water species are espe- used herein have proven to be useful in planning the preven- cially sensitive to these effects. The main goal of this study tion and mitigation of the negative effects of climate change was to predict in detail how changes in air temperature and by differentiating areas based on the risk level and viability precipitation will affect streamflow, the thermal habitat of a of fish populations.