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Chapter 1.3 Emerging Issues for Our Hyperconnected World CHAPTER 1.3 The Internet is changing. From narrowband to broad- band, from kilobits to gigabits, from talking people to talking things—our networked world is changing forever. Emerging Issues for our In future, we shall no longer just be connected, we shall be hyperconnected: enjoying super-fast connectivity, Hyperconnected World always-on, on the move, roaming seamlessly from net- work to network, wherever we go—anywhere, anytime, PHILLIPPA BIGGS via any device. with contributions by This vision of our future hyperconnected world builds TOBY JOHNSON on the connectivity and functionality made possible by YOULIA LOZANOVA converged next-generation networks (NGNs), but extends NANCY SUNDBERG the concept of NGN in several ways—through embed- ITU ded ambient intelligence, automated machine-to-machine (M2M) traffic, and the sheer size and scale of the “Internet of Things” (Figure 1). Today, connected humans are already in the minority of Internet users. According to industry forecasts, the number of networked devices overtook the global population in 2011 and will reach 15 billion connected devices as early as 2015 (Intel‘s projec- tion in 2009),1 or a milestone to be achieved as late as 2019 (Google’s later forecast, made in 2011),2 potentially exploding to 50 billion by 2020 (Ericsson’s prediction, dating from 2010)3—by which time connected devices could outnumber connected people by a ratio of six to one, transforming our concept of the Internet forever. This chapter explores some of the technologies and standards necessary for realizing this vision of our hyperconnected world and its consequences for regulation. REALIZING OUR HYPERCONNECTED WORLD The concept of a hyperconnected world embraces ele- ments of the Internet of Things,4 M2M,5 ambient intel- ligence, embedded computing, and mesh networks.6 Cisco identifies four key enablers of multi-tasking and passive networking, which it asserts comprise “the two key pillars of hyperconnectivity”: 7 (1) the growing pen- etration of high-speed broadband; (2) the expansion of digital screen surface area and resolution; (3) the prolif- eration of network-enabled devices; and (4) increases in the power and speed of computing devices. In the ITU Internet Report on the Internet of Things, ITU notes that the development of the Internet of Things and the hyperconnected world encompasses a set of technological developments in different fields—wireless and mobile connectivity, miniaturization, nanotechnol- ogy, radio-frequency identification (RFID), and smart technologies.8 Although the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) is currently the most widely used technology for M2M, the World Bank suggests that Wi-Fi is likely to play an important role in the future Internet of Things,9 with Wi-Fi chips embedded in por- table computers and smartphones able to operate on a This chapter reflects the views of its authors only and in no way reflects the views of ITU or its membership. The Global Information Technology Report 2012 | 47 © 2012 World Economic Forum 1.3: Emerging Issues for our Hyperconnected World Figure 1: Projected estimates of the number of Internet-connected devices 50 Ericsson 40 Google Intel GSMA Upper limit 30 Cisco 20 Lower limit Number of connected devices (billions) 10 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sources: Compiled by ITU, for Intel: Higgenbotham, 2009; for Ericsson: Higgenbotham, 2010; for Google: Malas, 2011; for Cisco: Cisco, 2010; for GSMA: Mobile World Live, 2011. license-exempt (unlicensed) basis,10 and with the majority services into mobile phones, various wireless payment of upgrade costs lying with consumers rather than with and special “contactless” technologies have been devel- the operators. Reportedly one in ten people around the oped, which can now be embedded into mobile hand- world now use Wi-Fi.11 Advances in these technologies, sets.12 For example, mobile operators in Japan and the taken together, will help realize a miniaturized, embed- Republic of Korea have integrated special circuit chips ded, automated Internet of connected devices communi- installed into mobile phones to provide payment systems cating constantly and effortlessly (Figure 2). for a number of years now.13 Some phones also have Applications of the Internet of Things are far-reach- near field communications (NFC) chips that can be pro- ing, especially when combined with other technologies grammed to transfer small sums of money to contactless such as sensor technologies, nanotechnology, or pay- cash registers.14 ment systems in the retail sector. Traditional appliances and devices—such as home appliances, vehicles, energy EXPLOSIVE GROWTH OF DATA meters, and vending machines—are now entering the It is no longer the device or the connection that is most network. Perhaps future directions for our hypercon- important—the data themselves are the new currency nected future are most readily illustrated with some of our networked future. Data are now growing expo- practical examples. nentially (Figure 3), with both stored and transmitted In security and surveillance, commercial security data showing strong expansion. According to some cameras, nannycams, and petcams could transform the estimates, more data were created between 2008 and way in which objects and premises—as well as people, 2011 than in all history prior to 2008. The research patients, and pets—are monitored. In the medical and consultancy IDC considers that, in 2010, the amount of healthcare sector, connecting up patients is being priori- data transmitted around the world exceeded 1 zettabyte tized alongside connecting up digital health records that for the first time, while estimating that the size of the are accessible by different specialists, pharmacies, or digital universe now doubles every two years.15 Cisco associated health establishments. In the inventory, trans- is not so sure, and predicts that annual global IP traffic port, and fleet management sectors, tracking and status will only reach the zettabyte threshold (966 exabytes, or applications are paramount for monitoring the location, nearly 1 zettabyte) in 2015 (Figure 3).16 Of note, Cisco status, and condition of stock and food shipments. projects that traffic from wireless devices will exceed Another significant growth area is retail. Besides Internet traffic from wired devices by 2015—in the hands the integration of mobile banking services or credit card of end-users, the future Internet looks wireless, mobile, 48 | The Global Information Technology Report 2012 © 2012 World Economic Forum 1.3: Emerging Issues for our Hyperconnected World Figure 2: Miniaturizing and multiplying: Getting smaller and more numerous Smart things Mobile phones/ smart cards PCs Cost of production per unit Mainframe Time Source: ITU, 2005a. Figure 3: Explosive growth in data 2015 90 The annual run rate of total IP traffic reaches the zettabyte threshold. Internet traffic from wireless devices exceeds Internet traffic from wired devices. 80 The number of networked devices is double the size of the entire global population. 2014 70 1/5 of consumer Internet video now originates from non-PC devices 60 50 2012 Internet video reaches 50% consumer Internet traffic. 40 The number of households generating >1 TB per month hits the 1 million mark. Exabytes per month Exabytes 30 2010 2011 Internet video surpasses P2P as the largest The screen surface area of all consumer 20 consumer Internet video traffic category. devices reaches 1 sq. foot per capita. The number of networked devices equals the size of the entire global population. 10 2003 Consumer internet surpasses business internet. 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: Cisco, 2011. and portable, even if fiber networks remain essential in automation, and easier digital delivery, with digital assets the transport layer of the Internet to accommodate such enjoying an extended lifespan online.17 growth in data. In fact, unless investment in networks can keep Factors driving this growth in data include the up, we risk being overwhelmed by a data deluge: as greater availability of hardware, falling marginal costs one leading industry executive puts it, the current gen- of digital reproduction (which are now close to zero), eration is the first generation where more data are not The Global Information Technology Report 2012 | 49 © 2012 World Economic Forum 1.3: Emerging Issues for our Hyperconnected World Figure 4: Growth in theoretical throughput speeds and capacity, Mb/s 2.5 LTE 2.0 VDSL2 WiMAX HSPA VDSL 1.5 ADSL2+ HSDPA 1.0 ADSL2 EV-DO Rel.B ADSL Log (download speed), Mb/s EV-DO Rel.A 0.5 EV-DO Rel.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Log (upload speed), Mb/s Source: ITU, with representative speeds cited from various sources: ITU (http://www.itu.int/dms_pub/itu-t/oth/1D/01/T1D010000040003PDFE.pdf); GSMA (www.gsmamobilebroadband.com/about/); Cisco (Pinola and Pentikousis 2008). Notes: Throughput speeds converted using log to the base 10. ADSL = Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line, several versions; EV-DO = Evolution Data Only, several releases; HSDPA = High-Speed Downlink Packet Access; HSPA = High-Speed Packet Access; LTE = Long-Term Evolution; VDSL = Very-High-Bit-Rate Digital Subscriber Line; WiMAX = Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access. necessarily good.18 In any case, it is clear that significant LTE amounting to some 5–12 Mb/s download, and some new investments are needed in many forms of informa- 2–5 Mb/s upload. Its theoretical maximum download tion infrastructure. For example, Gartner predicts that speeds are much higher, at 300 Mb/s download and global hardware spending on data centers (including upload speeds of 75 Mb/s (Figure 4). servers, storage, and enterprise data center network- However, measuring technological progress in terms ing equipment) will surpass US$126.2 billion in 2015, up of speed and data capacity alone is too simplistic—tech- from US$87.8 billion in 2010.19 nological progress is transforming the way we live.
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