Nairobi County Opinion Polls 5th July 2017
| © 2017 | All Rights Reserved |Proprietary & Confidential | TIFA Research Limited | Methodology
Dates 1st and 2nd July 2017
Location All the 17 sub-counties in Nairobi
Target Both males and females aged 18+ years, registered voters
Data Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from households collection
Sample Size 829 Respondents living in Nairobi County
+/- 3.4% Margin of Error 95% confidence level
Financing TIFA Research Financed this opinion poll
2 Sample Distribution
CONSTITUENCY REGISTERED VOTERS SAMPLE Dagoretti north 147,214 54 Dagoretti south 107,239 39 Sample was distributed across the 17 Embakasi central 131,991 49 Embakasi east 140,740 52 constituencies proportionate to IEBC Embakasi north 104,253 38 2017 voter register. Embakasi south 150,314 55 Embakasi west 126,682 47 In each constituency, all wards were Kamukunji 120,266 44 sampled. Kasarani 146,701 54 Kibra 118,276 44 Langata 132,572 49 Makadara 126,048 46 Mathare 115,559 43 Roysambu 147,582 54 Ruaraka 116,301 43 Starehe 166,397 61 Westlands 152,718 56 2,250,853 829 3 Survey Objectives
To establish the following
. Political party preference;
. Most popular Gubernatorial Candidate;
. Most popular Senatorial Candidate and;
. Most popular Woman Representative Candidate.
4 Voting Intentions and Political Party Preference Voting Intentions
Q. Please tell me, do you intend to vote in the General Elections to be held in August this year?
Yes No
100% 2% 1% 3% 3% 4% 5% 3% 95%
90%
85% 98% 99% 100% 100% 97% 97% 96% 95% 97% 80%
75%
70% Total NASA Jubilee Party 18-24 yrs 25 – 30 yrs 31 – 35 yrs 36 – 40 yrs 40 – 45 yrs 46+ yrs Supportes Supporters All Political Party Age Group respondents Affiliation
6 Base: Total Sample -829; NASA supporters = 465, Jubilee supporters= 285, Other parties=79 Political Party Preference
Q. Which political party do you feel closest to?
July 2016 February 2017 July 2017 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 56% 47% 50% 42% 38% 38% 40% 34% 30% 22% 20% 9% 9% 10% 2% 2% 0% NASA Jubilee Party Others Undecided
Base: April 2016 = 544 July 2016 = 716 February 2017= 3,115; July 2017= 829 6 Political Party: Strongholds vs Battle Grounds - July 2017
CONSTITUENCY NASA STRONGHOLDS Ruaraka 87% Kibra 73% Dagoretti South 70% Embakasi South 69% Starehe 64% Dagoretti North 64% Embakasi Central 63% Langata 61% Mathare 58% Embakasi East 50% CONSTITUENCY JUBILEE STRONGHOLDS Roysambu 68% Kamukunji 67% Embakasi North 52% Kasarani 49% CONSTITUENCY NASA JUBILEE Westlands 47% 37% Makadara 45% 45% 8 Embakasi West 42% 28% Gubernatorial Candidates Governor Candidate Preference – July 2017
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Nairobi?
July 2017
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 44% 43% 40% 30% 20% 8% 10% 4% 1% 0% Evans Kidero Sonko Gideon Mbuvi Peter Kenneth Miguna Miguna Others Undecided
Base: July 2017= 829 10 Political Party Support vs Candidate Support
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Nairobi? Q. Which political party do you feel closest to?
Political Party vs Candidate Support 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 56% 50% 44% 43% 40% 35% 30% 20% 10% 0% NASA Suppporters Evans Kidero Jubilee Party Mike Sonko Supporters Supporters Suppporters
11 Governor Candidate Preference – Political Party
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor of Nairobi?
100%
90% NASA Supporters Jubilee Supporters Other Parties 80% 70% 60% 50% 3% 4% 40% 3% 30% 27% 20% 39% 10% 0% 0% 2% 12% 2% 0% 2% 0% 2% 1% 3% Evans Kidero (44%) Sonko Gideon Mbuvi (43%) Peter Kenneth (4%) Miguna Miguna (1%) Undecided (8%)
12 Base: NASA supporters = 465, Jubilee supporters= 285, Other parties=79 Governor Candidate Preference – Trend
April 2016 July 2016 Feb 2017 July 2017 100%
90%
80%
70%
60% 46% 44% 50% 43% 40% 36% 28% 28%30% 30% 24% 20% 20% 20% 18% 17% 17% 11% 8% 10% 4% 5% 1% 0% Evans Kidero Sonko Gideon Mbuvi Peter Kenneth Miguna Miguna Others Undecided
Base: April 2016 = 544 July 2016 = 716 February 2017= 3,115; July 2017= 829 13 Governor Candidate Preference – Trend
Evans Kidero Sonko Gideon Mbuvi Peter Kenneth
46% 44% 36% 43% 28% 30% 20% 18% 4% 0% 0%
April 2016 July 2016 Feb 2017 July 2017
Base: April 2016 = 544 July 2016 = 716 February 2017= 3,115; July 2017= 829 14 Reasons for not voting for Evans Kidero
50%
Jubilee Supporters NASA Supporters 40%
31% 30% 24%
20% 12% 12% 9% 10% 10% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 5% 6% 5% 2% 1% 0% Has not delivered No development The town is too Poor leadership High tax on Not social/poor He is corrupt Not addressed agenda dirty skills businesses relations with low water problems class people
Those who will not vote for Evans Kidero i.e NASA Supporters=142; Jubilee Party Supporters=264 15 Reasons for not voting for Mike Sonko
50% NASA Jubilee Party 45% 40% 35% 35% 33% 30% 25% 20% 16% 15% 10% 10% 8% 10% 6% 6% 4% 5% 0% 0% No expertise/skills to Educational level is low Supporting only NASA He has not matured in Holiganism behaviour manage Nairobi candidates politics
Those who will not vote for Mike Sonko i.e NASA Supporters=368; Jubilee Party Supporters=59 16 Senatorial Candidates Senator Candidate Preference – July 2017
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator of Nairobi?
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 39% 40% 28% 29% 30% 20% ? ? 10% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% Johnson Sakaja Edwin Sifuna Ramesh Gorasia Suzanne Lenge Zacharia Momanyi Others Undecided
Base: July 2017= 829 18 Senator Candidate Preference by Political Party
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator of Nairobi?
NASA Supporters Jubilee Supporters Other Parties 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 3% 30% 1% 24% 2% 5% 20% 6% 25% 10% 17% 12% 0% Johnson Sakaja (39%) Edwin Sifuna (28%) Undecided (29%) 19 Woman Rep Candidates Woman Rep Candidate Preference – July 2017
Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Woman Representative of Nairobi?
July 2017 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 57% 50% 40% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 1% 1% 1% 0% Esther Passaris Rachel Shebesh Maina Kageni Nadya Khan Rahab Ndambuki Undecided
Base: July 2017= 829 21 Woman Rep Candidate Preference by Political Party
NASA Jubilee Other Parties 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 4% 50% 11% 40%
30% 1% 20% 42% 19% 4% 10% 3% 8% 0% 4% Esther Passaris (57%) Rachel Shebesh (25%) Undecided (15%)
22 Base: NASA supporters = 465, Jubilee supporters= 285, Other parties=79 Observations Observations
A significant number of respondents are unlikely to follow the 6-piece voting. This is an indication that they evaluate candidates on other attributes apart from political party affiliation.
The two leading governor candidates are attracting voters from various political parties. However Mike Sonko attracts a higher proportion of supporters that are not from his party as compared to Evans Kidero.
The proportion of undecided voters for the Senator seat is very high. The top two candidates will need to work harder to persuade the undecided voters.
Esther Passaris has already garnered majority support and therefore has a lead over her competitors.
24 Are opinion polls bullet proof?
Voter turnout: is a key determinant factor on the actual election outcome. There is a need to encourage the younger age group 18-30 years to vote. Civic education has a role to play in ensuring participation in the electoral process.
Last minute alliances and changes in voting blocks could change the political platform. In some instances, one less popular candidate could cede ground and support one who is more popular.
25 Respondent Demographics Respondent Demographics
Age Education
55+ 1% Gender Refused to answer 1% 51 – 55 2%
46-50 3% Female, Graduate and above 14% 50% Male, 50% 40 – 45 4%
College 32% 36 – 40 13%
31 – 35 years 21% Secondary Education 43% 25 – 30 years 32%
18-24 years 24% Primary Education 10%
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