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Home , Adelaide, Bushfires in Australia, Southern Australia, South Australia

BE PREPARED: CHANGE AND THE SOUTH BUSHFIRE THREAT

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CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Authorship: Professor Lesley Hughes

Published by the Climate Council of Australia Limited ISBN: 978-0-9941866-1-4 (print) 978-0-9941866-0-7 (web) © Climate Council of Australia Ltd 2014 This work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd. All material contained in this work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd except where a third party source is indicated. Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia License. To view a copy of this license visit http://creativecommons.org.au You are free to copy, communicate and adapt the Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material so long as you attribute the Climate Council of Australia Ltd and the authors in the following manner: Be Prepared: climate change and the bushfire threat by Professor Lesley Hughes (Climate Council of Australia).

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Professor Lesley Hughes Climate Councillor Introduction

Residents of South Australia have We first describe the background experienced the serious consequences context of fire and its history in South of bushfires. In 2005 the Black Tuesday Australia. We then outline the link bushfires on the between bushfires and climate change, resulted in the tragic loss of nine lives before considering how bushfire danger and estimated damages of $41 million weather is increasing in South Australia (2011$). At the beginning of 2014 several and what this means for the immediate bushfires raged across the state, burning future. We explore the impacts of fire tens of thousands of hectares of land, on people, property, water supply and destroying properties and injuring biodiversity, before considering the and residents. future influence of climate change on bushfires, and the implications for South have always lived with Australian fire managers, planners and fire and its consequences, but climate emergency services. change is increasing fire danger weather and thus the risk of fires. It is time to think very seriously about the risks that future fires will pose.

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Key Findings

1. Climate change is already ›› The fire will continue to increasing the risk of lengthen into the future, straining bushfires in South Australia. South Australia’s existing resources for fighting and managing fires. ›› Extreme fire weather has increased over the last 30 years in South 3. Recent severe fires in Australia. South Australia have been influenced by record hot, ›› Australia is a fire prone country dry conditions. and South Australia has always experienced bushfires. Today ›› Record breaking heat and hotter climate change is making hot weather over the long term in days hotter, and heatwaves South Australia has worsened longer and more frequent, with fire weather and contributed to increasing conditions in an increase in the frequency and Australia’s southeast. The hotter, severity of bushfires. drier conditions are increasing the ›› In January 2005, temperatures of risk of high fire danger weather in over 40°C contributed to severe South Australia. bushfires on the Eyre Peninsula, ›› 2013 was South Australia’s hottest which resulted in the tragic loss of year on record and in the nine lives and estimated damages average intensity of heatwaves of $41 million (2011$). has increased by 2.5°C. These 4. The total economic costs of conditions are driving up the bushfires likelihood of very high fire danger in 2014 are projected to be weather in the state. $44 million. By around the 2. The fire season in South middle of the century these Australia is starting earlier cost will almost double. and lasting longer. Fire ›› Bushfires cause significant weather has been extending economic damage, estimated at into Spring and Autumn. $337 million per year (2011$) in ›› This year, the bushfire season Australia. With a forecast growth will start early in seven of fifteen in costs of 2.2% annually between districts in South Australia. These 2014 and 2050, the total economic districts include the Eastern Eyre cost of bushfires is expected to Peninsula, , the reach $800 million annually by Lower South East, the mid-century. In South Australia Ranges, the North East Pastoral, bushfires are projected to cost and the West Coast. $44 million in 2014 (2011$).

Page 2 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU ›› These state and national ›› Increased resources for our projections do not incorporate emergency services and fire increased bushfire incident rates management agencies will be due to climate change and could required as fire risk increases. By potentially be much higher. 2030, it has been estimated that the 5. In the future, South Australia number of professional firefighters in is very likely to experience Australia will need to approximately an increased number of days double (compared to 2010) to keep with extreme fire danger. pace with increased population, asset Communities, emergency value, and fire danger weather. services and health services 6. This is the critical decade across South Australia must ›› Australia must strive to cut emissions prepare. rapidly and deeply to join global ›› Fire severity and intensity is efforts to stabilise the world’s climate expected to increase substantially and to reduce the risk of even more in coming decades, especially extreme events, including bushfires. in those currently most affected by bushfires, and where a substantial proportion of the Australian population lives, such as South Australia.

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1. The nature of bushfires

Fire has been a feature of the Australian 75 and 100 considered ‘extreme’. The environment for at least 65 million years unprecedented ferocity of the 2009 Black (Cary et al. 2012). Human management of Saturday bushfires in saw a fires also has a long history, starting with ‘catastrophic’ category added to the FFDI fire use by (“fire- for events exceeding the existing scale. stick farming”) up to 60,000 years ago. The concept of “fire regimes” is Between 3% and 10% of Australia’s land important for understanding the area burns every year (Western Australian nature of , and Land Information Authority 2013). for assessing changes in fire behaviour In Australia, the Forest Fire Danger caused by both human and climatic Index (FFDI) is used to measure the factors (Figure 2). A fire regime describes degree of risk of fire in our forests a recurrent pattern of fire, with the most (Luke and Macarthur 1978). The important characteristics being the (BoM) and fire frequency, intensity, and seasonality management agencies use the FFDI of the fire. Significant changes in any to assess fire risk and issue warnings. of these features of a fire regime can The index was originally designed on a have a very important influence on scale from 0 to 100, with fires between its ecological and economic impacts (Williams et al. 2009).

Figure 1: A at work in South Australia

Page 4 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU 01 THE NATURE OF BUSHFIRES IN AUSTRALIA

Figure 4. Main factors aecting bushfires

3 | People Main factors Fires may be deliberately started (arson) or be started by accident (e.g. by powerline fault). Human aecting activities can also reduce fire, either by direct suppression or by reducing fuel load by bushfires prescribed burning

1 | Ignition Fires can be started by lightning or people, either deliberately or accidentally

2 | Fuel Fires need fuel of sucient quantity & dryness. A wet year creates favourable conditions for vegetation growth. If 4 | Weather this is followed by a dry Fires are more likely to spread on hot, dry, season or year, fires are windy days. Hot weather also dries out fuel, more likely to spread and favouring fire spread and intensity become intense

Figure 2: Main Factors Affecting Bushfires CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page 6

Fire is a complex process that is very of weather that affect fire and fuels are variable in space and time. A fire needs to temperature, , wind and be started (ignition), it needs something . Once a fire is ignited, very to burn (fuel) and it needs conditions hot days with low humidity and high that are conducive to its spread (weather winds are conducive to its spread. The and topography) (see Figure 2). Fire type, amount, and moisture level of fuel activity is strongly influenced by available are also critical determinants weather, fuel, terrain, ignition agents of fire behaviour, extent and intensity. and people. The most important aspects The relationship between rainfall and

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fuel is complex. Wet can lead about every 5 to 30 years, with spring to increased plant growth and therefore and being peak fire season increase fuel buildup in the months or (Clarke et al. 2011; Bradstock et al. 2012). years before a fire is ignited (Bradstock People are also a very important et al. 2009). Warmer temperatures and component of the fire equation. low rainfall in the period immediately Many fires are either deliberately or preceding an ignition, however, can lead accidentally lit, and in places where to drier vegetation and soil, making the population density is high, the existing fuel more flammable. Warmer probability of a fire igniting increases temperatures can also be associated close to roads and settlements (Willis with a higher incidence of lightning 2005; Penman et al. 2013). Some of activity (Jayaratne and Kuleshov, 2006), Australia’s most catastrophic bushfires increasing the risk of ignition. have been ignited by powerline faults. As fire weather conditions become more But people also play an important role severe, fuel moisture content declines, in reducing fire risk, by vegetation making the fuel more flammable. By management including prescribed contrast, in arid regions, vegetation burning to reduce fuel load and and thus fuel in most years is sparsely conducting fire suppression activities. distributed and fires, if ignited, rarely Interventions such as total fire ban spread far. In Australia’s southeast, fires days also play a pivotal role in reducing are common in the heathlands and dry ignitions under dangerous fire sclerophyll forests, typically occurring conditions (Climate Council 2014a).

Figure 3: A bushfire near Adelaide

Page 6 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU South Australia is no stranger to bushfires. In 2005 the Black Tuesday bushfires The state has been affected by bushfires burnt approximately 82,000 hectares and throughout history. In 1983 the Ash resulted in 110 injuries and the loss of Wednesday fires in Victoria and South nine lives (AEM 2014b). More recently, the Australia led to the loss of 75 lives, the 2011-2012 fire season saw over 5 million destruction of over 2,300 homes and hectares of land burnt and at the start of had an estimated cost of $307 million 2014, several significant bushfires burnt (2011$) in South Australia (AEM 2014a). over 100,000 hectares and resulted in 24 injuries (SACFS 2014a). 2. What is the link between bushfires and climate change?

Figure 4: An fire in Renmark SA

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A fire needs to be started (ignition), it needs very high fire danger weather (see Section something to burn (fuel) and it needs 3). The 2005 Black Tuesday bushfires on conditions that are conducive to its spread the Eyre Peninsula illustrate the role of (weather) (Section 1). Climate change weather conditions in affecting fire severity. can affect all of these factors in both In January 2005, temperatures of over straightforward and more complex ways. 40°C contributed to ferocious bushfires on the Peninsula, with heat from the fire The role of climate change in ignition exceeding 1000°C and wind speeds of up to is likely to be relatively small compared 100 km per hour. The fires burnt 82,000 ha to the fuel and weather, but may still and resulted in 110 injuries and the loss of be significant. For example, lightning nine lives. The Insurance Council accounts for ~27% of the ignitions in of Australia estimated total damages of the (Bradstock 2008) and $41 million (2011$) (AEM 2014b). the incidence of lightning is sensitive to weather conditions, including It is important to note that climate change temperature (Jayaratne and Kuleshov is already increasing the intensity and 2006). Climate change can also affect frequency of some extreme events such fuel. For example, a lack of rainfall can as very hot days and . The dry out the soil and vegetation, making strength of trends and the confidence existing fuel more combustible. But in their attribution, however, varies whilst climate change can affect ignition between regions and between different and fuel, it is the impact of climate types of event (IPCC 2012; 2013; 2014). change on weather that has the most Extreme weather events, like bushfires, significant influence on fire activity are influenced by a number of different (Climate Council 2014a). factors. That’s why asking if a weather event is “caused” by climate change Very hot, dry and windy days create very is the wrong question. All extreme high bushfire risk. The most direct link weather events are now being influenced between bushfires and climate change by climate change because they are therefore comes from the relationship occurring in a climate system that is between the long-term trend towards hotter and moister than it was 50 years a warmer climate due to increasing ago (Trenberth 2012). The latest IPCC greenhouse gas emissions – the increasing report confirms with high confidence that amount of heat in the atmosphere – and climate change is expected to increase the incidence of very hot days. Put simply, the number of days with very high and climate change is increasing the frequency extreme fire weather, particularly in and severity of very hot days (IPCC 2012; (IPCC 2014). 2013), and is driving up the likelihood of

Climate change is expected to increase the number of days with very high and extreme fire weather, particularly in southern Australia

Page 8 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU 3. Observations of changing bushfire danger weather in South Australia

Increasing hot days, heatwaves and record set in 2009 (BoM 2014; Climate rainfall deficiencies in South Australia Council 2014b). Heatwaves in South are driving up the likelihood of very high Australia are also increasing in fire danger weather in the state. frequency, intensity and duration. For example, in Adelaide from 1951-2011 the While hot weather has always been average intensity of heatwaves has common in Australia’s southeast, it has increased by 2.5°C (Climate Council become more common and severe over 2014b). The IPCC projects with virtual the past few decades, including in South certainty that warming in Australia will Australia (see Figure 6). The southeast of continue throughout the Australia has experienced significant and predicts with high confidence that warming during the last 50 years (Timbal bushfire danger weather will increase in et al. 2012). 2013 was the hottest year on most of southern Australia, including record both nationally and in South South Australia (IPCC 2014). Australia and mean temperatures in the state were 0.41°C above the previous

Figure 5: Burned vineyards in South Australia

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Figure 6: South Australia increasing heat (Australian Bureau of Meteorology). bars indicate years where annual temperatures were below average, and red bars indicate years of above average temperatures.

Much of eastern Australia has become (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC drier since the 1970s, with the southeast 2014). Long-term rainfall deficits across experiencing a drying trend due to southern Australia, coupled with above declines in rainfall combined with average temperatures, have reduced soil increased temperatures (BoM 2013; moisture and dried heavy fuels in forests, Climate Commission 2013). Since the increasing bushfire potential in parts of mid-1990s, southeast Australia has South Australia (Bushfire and Natural experienced a 15 percent decline in late Hazards CRC 2014). It is very likely that autumn and early winter rainfall and a an increased incidence of drought in the 25 percent decline in average rainfall southeast - coupled with consecutive hot in April and May (CSIRO & BoM 2014). and dry days - will in turn result in longer Much of Australia was drier than normal fire seasons and an ever larger number from mid-2012 with record low July to of days of extreme fire danger in coming rainfall across Central South decades (e.g. Clarke et al. 2011; 2013). Australia (Climate Council 2014b). Rainfall since May 2014 has tended to be below average across northern South Australia

Page 10 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU The concept of a ‘normal’ bushfire season is rapidly changing as bushfires continue to increase in number, burn for longer and affect larger areas of land.

The concept of a ‘normal’ bushfire This year, the bushfire season has started season is rapidly changing as bushfires early in several parts of South Australia. continue to increase in number, burn The state has fifteen districts, and at for longer and affect larger areas of land the time of writing the South Australia (Bushfire CRC 2014). The influence of confirmed that hotter, drier weather conditions on the seven of these districts have either likelihood of bushfire spread in South already started, or are set to start. These Australia is captured by changes in districts include the Eastern Eyre the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), Peninsula, Kangaroo Island, the Lower an indicator of extreme fire weather. South East, the , Some regions of Australia, especially the North East Pastoral, Riverland and in the south and southeast (Victoria, the West Coast. Total fire bans were South Australia and ) also declared across parts of South have already experienced a significant Australia on the 20th-24th of increase in extreme fire weather since as temperatures in the state climbed the 1970s, as indicated by changes in the to above 30°C (SACFS 2014b). The FFDI. The FFDI increased significantly at Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for 16 of 38 weather stations across Australia 2014/15 (see Figure 7) projects that due between 1973 and 2010, with none of the to the hotter, drier weather in southeast stations recording a significant decrease Australia, above normal fire activity can (Clarke et al. 2013). These changes have be expected in the North West Pastoral, been most marked in spring, indicating West Coast, Eastern Eyre Peninsula, a lengthening fire season across Lower Eyre Peninsula, Flinders and Mid southern Australia, with fire weather North districts (Bushfire and Natural extending into October and March. The Hazards CRC 2014). lengthening fire season means that opportunities for fuel reduction burning are decreasing (Matthews et al., 2012).

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The Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for 2014/15 projects that due to the hotter, drier weather in southeast Australia, above normal fire activity can be expected in the North West Pastoral, West Coast, Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Lower Eyre Peninsula, Flinders and districts.

Bushfire BPuoshtefirne tPiaotle 2nt0ia1l 420-1145-15 Above Normal Above Normal Normal Normal

Figure 7: Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC 2014)

Research aimed at understanding future their collective conclusion is clear – fire activity in Australia’s southeast has a weather conditions conducive to fire long history (Table 1). While the detailed in the southeast and southwest of the results of these studies vary due to the are becoming increasingly use of different global circulation models frequent and this trend will continue. (GCMs) and different climate scenarios,

Page 12 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Future changes in the El Niño-Southern intense during the 1979-2009 period Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon are than at any other time in the past 600 also likely to have an influence on years (Aiken et al. 2013). Although there fire activity. There is a strong positive is no consensus on the influence of relationship between El Niño events climate change on ENSO behaviour, and fire weather conditions in southeast recent projections suggest increases in and central Australia (Williams and El Niño-driven drying in the western Karoly 1999; Verdon et al. 2004; Lucas by mid-to late 21st century 2005) and between El Niño events and (Power et al. 2013); such a change would actual fire activity (Harris et al. 2013). increase the incidence of heat and Significant changes have occurred in drought, and potentially fire activity, in the nature of ENSO since the 1970s, with eastern Australia. the phenomenon being more active and

Table 1: Summary of projections from modeling studies aimed at projecting changes in fire risk in southeast Australia

Study Projections

Beer et al. (1988) 10%-20% increase in FFDI in southeast.

Beer and Williams (1995) Increase in FFDI with doubling of atmospheric CO2, commonly >10% across most of continent, especially in the southeast, with a few small areas showing decreases. Williams et al. (2001) General trend towards decreasing frequency of low and moderate fire danger rating days, but an increasing frequency of very high and in some cases extreme fire danger days. Lucas et al. (2007) Increases in annual FFDI of up to 30% by 2050 over historical levels in southeast Australia and up to a trebling in the number of days per year where the uppermost values of the index are exceeded. The largest changes projected to occur in the arid and semi-arid interior of NSW and northern Victoria. Hasson et al. (2009) Analysed likelihood of increase in incidence of synoptic weather pattern in southeast Australia known to be associated with extreme fire events. Projected potential frequency of extreme events to increase from around 1 event every 2 years during the late 20th century to around 1 event per year in the middle of the 21st century, and to around 1 to 2 events per year by the end of the 21st century. Clarke et al. (2011) FFDI projected to decrease or show little change in the tropical northeast. In the southeast, FFDI projected to increase strongly by end of the 21st century, with the fire season extending in length and starting earlier. Matthews et al. (2012) Warming and drying climate projected to produce drier, more flammable fuel, and to increase rate of fire spread .

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4. Impacts of bushfires in South Australia

Bushfires have had a very wide range the community are also uneven, with the of human and environmental impacts, elderly, infants and those with chronic including loss of life and severe health heart or lung diseases at higher risk effects, damage to property, devastation (Morgan et al. 2010). of communities and effects on water and In addition to physical health impacts, natural ecosystems (Stephenson 2010). the trauma and stress of experiencing a bushfire can also increase depression, 4.1 Health Impacts anxiety, and other mental health issues, both in the immediate aftermath of Populations in South Australia are at risk the trauma and for months or years from the health impacts of bushfires, afterwards (McFarlane and Raphael which have contributed to physical and 1984; Sim 2002; Whittaker et al. 2012). mental illness as well as death. For example, in the aftermath of an Tragically, in Australia bushfires event such as the Ash Wednesday fires have accounted for more than 800 it is expected that 20% of the affected deaths since 1850 (Cameron et al. population will develop significant 2009; King et al. 2013), and have psychological issues (McFarlane 1990). contributed to numerous fatalities in Post-traumatic stress, major depression, South Australia. For example the Black anxiety and suicide can also manifest Tuesday bushfires claimed the live of among firefighters, sometimes only nine South Australian residents. In becoming evident many months after an addition to fatalities, bushfire smoke extreme event (McFarlane 1988; Cook et can seriously affect health. Smoke al. 2013). contains not only respiratory irritants, but also inflammatory and cancer- In the aftermath of causing chemicals (Bernstein and Rice 2013). Smoke can be transported an event such as the in the atmosphere for hundreds or Ash Wednesday fires even thousands of kilometres from the fire front, exposing large populations it has been estimated to its impacts (Spracklen et al. 2009; that 20% of the affected Dennekamp and Abramson 2011; Bernstein and Rice 2013). For example, population will in 2006, air quality in Adelaide was rated as ‘very poor’ 3% of the year (this is equal develop significant to 12 days). These twelve days of poor air psychological issues. quality were attributed to smoke from bushfires or windblown dust (Dougherty 2006). The impacts of bushfire smoke in

Page 14 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU 4.2 Economic Costs Access Economics 2014). The total economic costs of South Australian The economic cost of bushfires – bushfires for 2014 are projected to be including loss of life, livelihoods, $44 million (2011$). By about mid century property damage and emergency these costs will almost double, potentially services responses– is very high. The reaching $79 million (Deloitte Access total economic cost of bushfires, a Economics 2014). These estimates take measure that includes insured losses as into account increases in the number well as broader social costs, is estimated of households, growth in the value of to be $337 million per year in Australia housing stock, population growth and (2011$), a figure that is expected to reach increasing infrastructure density. $800 million by around 2050 (Deloitte

Figure 8: Bushfire damage, Flinders Chase National , Kangeroo Island

Bushfires can cause direct damage can also be significant. For example, to properties, for example when the in New South Wales a month after the Ash Wednesday fires destroyed 2,400 2013 Blue Mountains bushfires, homes in Victoria and South Australia operators estimated losses of nearly $30 (AEMI 2014). Indirect costs, such as million due to declines in visitors and impacts on local tourism industries cancellations alone (ABC 2013).

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The Ash Wednesday fires destroyed 2,400 homes in Victoria and South Australia

Bushfires can cause significant losses in farming areas of regional and rural 4.3 Environmental South Australia. Bushfires can cause Impacts the death of hundreds of thousands Fire can affect the quality and quantity of of livestock and affect significant water in catchments and have significant amounts of farming land. For example impacts on ecosystems. the Black Tuesday fires of 2005 killed approximately 47,000 livestock (SACFS 4.3.1 Impact on water quality 2014a). Stock that survives the initial bushfires can face starvation in the and quantity post-fire period, as well as threats from Large-scale high intensity fires that predators due to the destruction of remove vegetation expose topsoils fences around properties (Stephenson to erosion and increased runoff after 2010). The Black Tuesday fires destroyed subsequent rainfall (Shakesby et al. 2007). approximately 6,300 kilometers of This can increase sediment and nutrient fencing (SACFS 2014a). Smoke damage concentrations in nearby waterways, can also taint fruit and vegetable crops, potentially making water supplies unfit with wine grapes particularly susceptible, for human consumption (Smith et al. which is bad news for South Australia’s 2011; IPCC 2014). For example, bushfires strong wine industry (Stephenson 2010). in January 2003 devastated almost all of The industry has been increasingly the Cotter catchment in the Australian affected by bushfire smoke taint in wine, Capital Territory, causing unprecedented which can often make grapes unusable levels or turbidity, iron and manganese as they produce smoky, burnt ash and significantly disrupting water supply aromas (Anderson et al. 2008). (White et al. 2006). Fires can also affect water infrastructure. Fires in the Sydney It is important to note that these region in 2002 affected the Woronora economic losses do not account for pumping station and water filtration the full range of costs associated with plants, resulting in a community alert to bushfires – few attempts have been boil drinking water (WRF 2013). In South made to account for loss of life, social Australia a in 2007 burned a disruption and trauma, opportunity costs reservoir catchment that supplied water for volunteer fire fighters, fixed costs for to Adelaide, negatively affecting the bushfire fighting services, government quality of the water (Smith et al. 2011). contributions for rebuilding and compensation, impacts on health, and ecosystem services (King et al. 2013).

Page 16 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU 4.3.2 Impact on ecosystems is too long, plant species that rely on fire for reproduction may be eliminated from Fire is a regular occurrence in many an ecological community. Animals are Australian ecosystems, and many species also affected by bushfires, for example if have evolved strategies over millions of they are restricted to localised habitats years to not only withstand fire, but to and cannot move quickly, and/or benefit from it (Crisp et al. 2011, Bowman reproduce slowly, they may be at risk et al. 2012). Fire does not “destroy” from intense large-scale fires that occur bushland, as is often reported; rather, it at short intervals (Yates et al. 2008). For acts as a major disturbance with a range example, bushfires can be catastrophic of complex impacts on different species for , destroying eucalypt foliage, and communities. Particular fire regimes as well as burning and killing the iconic (especially specific combinations of fire Australian marsupial. Major fires can frequency and intensity) can favour also act as a barrier to dispersal, some species and disadvantage others. If reducing the source of immigrants and fires are too frequent, plant species can leading to localised population declines become vulnerable to local extinction as (Matthews et al. 2007; Wallis 2013). the supply of seeds in the soil declines. Conversely, if the interval between fires

Figure 9: Tree-dwelling animals like koalas are very vulnerable during and immediately after bushfires.

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5. Implications of increasing fire activity

The risk that bushfires pose to people are The economic, social and environmental particularily acute in southern Australia, costs of increasing bushfire activity in where large populations live close to South Australia are potentially immense. highly flammable native vegetation As noted in Section 4.2, an analyses of that is exposed to frequent severe fire projected costs of bushfires in South weather. The population of South Australia by Deloitte Access Economics Australia could potentially grow from (2014) forecast that bushfires in South 1.7 million (as of June 2012) to 2.6 million Australia could cost $79 million by about in 2061 (ABS 2014). In South Australia, mid century (2011$), based only on 39 councils have designated bushfire population and asset increases, but protection areas within their council not including increased risk due to boundaries as numerous homes are climate change. within close proximity to bushland (SA government 2014). The increasing population and built assets, coupled with increasing fire danger weather, present significant and growing challenges for the state.

Page 18 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU The economic, social and environmental costs of increasing bushfire activity in South Australia are potentially immense.

Figure 10: Bushfires in Clayton, South Australia

There is increasing interest in how lit in cool weather to reduce the volume adaptation to an increasingly bushfire- of fuel. Fire managers are constantly prone world may reduce vulnerability. faced with the challenge of balancing the Current initiatives centre on planning need to reduce risk to life and property and regulations, building designs to whilst simultaneously conserving reduce flammability, burying powerlines biodiversity and environmental amenity, in high risk areas and retrofitting and controlling air pollution near urban electricity systems, fuel management, areas (Penman et al. 2011; Williams and fire detection and suppression, improved Bowman 2012; Adams 2013; Altangerel early warning systems, and community and Kull 2013). The increasing length of education (Preston et al. 2009; Buxton et the fire season will reduce the window al. 2011; O’Neill and Handmer 2012; King of opportunity for hazard reduction at et al. 2013). Responses to bushfires can the same time that the need for hazard be controversial, particularly the practise reduction becomes greater. of prescribed burning, where fires are

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Australia’s premier fire and emergency services agencies have recognised the implications of climate change for bushfire risk and fire-fighting resources for some time

Australia’s premier fire and emergency Substantially increased resources for services agencies have recognised fire suppresson and control will be the implications of climate change for required. Among these resources are bushfire risk and fire-fighting resources professional firefighters, the number of for some time (AFAC 2009; 2010). whom in Australia will need to grow by Longer fire seasons have implications an estimated 20% (that is, by about 2300) for the availability and costs of fire- by 2020 (compared to 2012) just to keep fighting equipment that is leased from pace with increased population and asset fire fighting agencies in the Northern growth (NIEIR 2013). When the increased Hemisphere. As fire seasons in the two incidence of fire-related extreme hemispheres increasingly overlap, such weather is also taken into account, arrangements may become increasingly the estimate is that a further 1200 fire impractical (Handmer et al. 2012). fighters will be needed. 6. This is the Critical Decade

The impacts of climate change are impacts as the temperature rises. For already being observed. Sea levels are South Australia, these impacts include rising, oceans are becoming more acidic, increased fire danger weather and longer and heatwaves have become longer and bushfire seasons. Ensuring that this hotter. We are now more confident than guardrail is not exceeded will prevent ever that the emission of greenhouse even worse impacts from occurring. gases by human activities, mainly The evidence is clear and compelling. carbon dioxide from the combustion of The trend of increasing global emissions fossil fuels, is the primary cause for the must be halted within the next few changes in climate over the past half- years and emissions must be trending century (IPCC 2013; 2014). downwards by 2020. Investment in Projections of future climate change and renewable, clean energy must therefore its impacts have convinced nations that increase rapidly. And, critically, most the global average temperature, now of the known fossil fuel reserves must at 0.9oC above the pre-industrial level, remain in the ground. must not be allowed to rise beyond 2oC– This is the critical decade to get on with the so-called ‘2oC guardrail’. Societies the job. will have to adapt to even more serious

Page 20 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU References

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Page 22 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Clarke H, Lucas C and Smith P (2013) Dougherty G (2006) South Australia’s Air Changes in Australian fire weather Quality 2006. Environmental Protection between 1973 and 2010. International Agency. Accessed at http://www.epa. Journal of Climatology 33: 931-944. sa.gov.au/xstd_files/Air/Report/air_ quality_2006.pdf. Climate Commission (2013) The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather. Hughes L, Handmer J, McKellar R, McLennan B, Steffen W. Whittaker J, Towers B, Duggie J and Woolf M (2012) National Climate Change Climate Council (2014a) Be Prepared: Adaptation Research Plan: Emergency climate change and the Australian Management – Revised 2012 Edition, bushfire threat. Hughes L. National Climate Change Adaptation Climate Council (2014b) Heatwaves: Research Facility, Gold Coast, 60pp. hotter, longer, more often. Steffen W, Harris S, Nicholls N and Tapper N (2013) Hughes L and Perkins S. Forecasting fire activity in Victoria, Cook B, Mitchell W (2013) Occupational Australia, using antecedent climate health effects for firefighters: the variables and ENSO indices. International extent an implications of physical and Journal of Wildland Fire http://dx.doi. psychological injuries. Report prepared org/10.1071/WF13024. for the United Firefighters Union of Hasson AEA, Mills GA, Timbal B and Australia, Centre of Full Employment and Walsh K (2009) Assessing the impact of Equity. Accessed https://www.firecrisis. climate change on extreme fire weather com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/ even over southeastern Australia. cofFEE-report-Final.pdf. Climate Research 39: 159-172. Crisp MD, Burrows GE, Cook LG, IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Thornhill AH and Bowman DMJS Climate Change) (2012) Managing the (2011) Flammable biomes dominated Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters by eucalypts originated at the to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Cretaceous-Palaeogene boundary. A Special Report of Working Groups I Nature Communications 2: 1-8. and II of the Intergovernmental Panel CSIRO and BoM (2014) State of the on Climate Change. Field CB, Barros V, Climate 2014. CSIRO and Bureau Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, of Meteorology, Melbourne. Mastrandrea. Deloitte Access Economics (2014) IPCC (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Scoping study on a cost benefit analysis Physical Science Basis. Working Group I of bushfire mitigation. Australia Forest Contribution to the IPCC 5th Assessment Products Association. Accessed at Report - Changes to the underlying http://www.ausfpa.com.au/wp-content/ Scientific/Technical Assessment. uploads/AFPA-DAE-report-Amended- Accessed at http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ Final-2014-05-27.pdf ar5/wg1/. Dennekamp M and Abramson MJ (2011) The effects of bushfire smoke on respiratory health. Respirology 16: 198-209.

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Wallis RL (2013). Koalas Phascolarctos Williams RJ, Bradstock RA, Cary GJ, cinerteus in Framlingham Forest, south- Enright NJ, Gill AM, Liedloff AC, Lucas west Victoria: introduction, translocation C, Whelan RJ, Andersen AN, Bowman and the effects of a bushfire.Victorian DMJS, Cook GD, Hennessy KJ and York Naturalist 130 (1): 37-40. http://search. A. (2009) Interactions between climate informit.com.au.ezproxy1.library.usyd. change, fire regimes and biodiversity in edu.au/documentSummary;dn=2601561 Australia – a preliminary assessment. 00721864;res=IELHSS. Report to the Department of Climate Change and Department of the Western Australian Land Information Environment, Water, Heritage and Authority (2013) Landgate FireWatch. the Arts, Canberra. 214 p. Accessed at http://firewatch.landgate. wa.gov.au/landgate_firewatch_public. Williams RJ and Bowman DMJS (2012) asp. Fire futures for a megadiverse continent. New Phytologist 196: 337-340. White I, Wade A, Worthy M, Mueller N, Daniel T, Wasson R (2006) The Willis M (2005) Bushfire arson: a review vulnerability of water supply catchments of the literature. Research and Public to bushfires: impacts of the January Policy Series No. 61. Bushfire CRC, 2003 wildfires on the Australian Capital Melbourne. 166 pp. Territory. Australian Journal of Water WRF (Water Research Foundation) Resources 10:1-16. (2013) Water quality impacts of extreme Whittaker J, Handmer J and Mercer weather events. Water Research D (2012) Vulnerability to bushfires in Foundation, Denver, Colorado rural Australia: A case study from East Yates CP, Edwards AC and Russell-Smith , Victoria. Journal of Rural J (2008) Big fires and their ecological Studies 28: 161-73. impacts in Australian savannas: size and Williams AAJ and Karoly DJ (1999) frequency matters. International Journal Extreme fire weather in Australia and of Wildland Fire 17: 768–781. the impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Australian Meteorological Magazine 48: 15–22. Williams AAJ, Karoly DJ and Tapper N (2001) The sensitivity of Australian fire danger to climate change. Climactic Change 49: 171-191.

Page 26 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU IMAGE CREDITS

Cover Photo: “An Outback fire in Renmark SA” by Flickr user Muffytyrone licensed under CC by -NC-SA 2.0. Page 4: Figure 1 “A Firefighter at work in South Australia” by Flickr user robdownunder licensed under CC by -NC -ND 2.0. Page 6: Figure 3 “A bushfire near Adelaide” by Flickr User J-ster licensed under CC by -NC-SA 2.0. Page 7: Figure 4 “An Outback fire in Renmark SA” by Flickr user Muffytyrone licensed under CC by -NC-SA 2.0. Page 9: Figure 5 “Burned vineyards in South Australia” by Flickr user David Clarke licensed under CC by -NC -ND 2.0. Page 12: Figure 7 “Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook 2014-15” by the Bushfires and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (2014). Page 15: Figure 8 “A blaze breaks out in Wingfield South Australia” By Flickr user Jak Sie Masz licensed under CC by -NC-ND 2.0. Page 17: Figure 9 “ Tree-dwelling animals like koalas are very vulnerable during and immediately after bushfires “ by Flickr user Frankzed licensed under CC by 2.0. Page 19: Figure 10 “Bushfires in Clayton, South Australia” by Flicker user Vicki licensed under CC by -NC -ND 2.0.

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Preparing for a Bushfire in South Australia IN AN EMERGENCY, CALL TRIPLE ZERO (106 FOR PEOPLE WITH A HEARING OR SPEECH IMPAIRMENT) 000 What can I do to prepare for a bushfire? INFORM YOURSELF The South Australian Country Fire Service has the resources available to help you prepare for a bushfire. Use these resources to inform yourself and your family.

ASSESS YOUR LEVEL OF RISK The excellent resources of the South Australian Country Fire Service are available to assist you to assess your level of risk from bushfire. Take advantage of them. Visit: http://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/prepare_for_bushfire/know_your_risk.jsp

MAKE A BUSHFIRE SURVIVAL PLAN Even if your household is not at high risk from bushfire (such as suburbs over 1 km from bushland), you should still educate yourself about bushfires, and take steps to protect yourself and your property. Access the bushfire ready self assessment tool: http://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/prepare_for_bushfire/be_bushfire_ready/be_bushfire_ ready_app.jsp

PREPARE YOUR PROPERTY Regardless of whether you decide to leave early or to stay and actively defend, you need to prepare your property for bushfire, An important consideration is retrofitting older houses to bring them in alignment with current building codes for fire risk and assessing the flammability of your garden. Use the CFS Bushfire Ready Assessment Tool to help recognise exactly what you need to prepare your property: http://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/prepare_for_bushfire/be_bushfire_ready/be_bushfire_ ready_app.jsp

PREPARE YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY Preparation is not only about the physical steps you take to prepare – e.g., preparing your house and making a bushfire survival plan. Preparing yourself and your family also involves considering your physical, mental and emotional preparedness for a bushfire and its effects. Take the time to talk to your family and to thoroughly prepare yourself on all levels.

Key Links SA RFS: Bushfire Self Assessment Tool: Fire Watch Map: http://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/ http://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/ http://myfirewatch.landgate. prepare_for_bushfire.jsp site/prepare_for_bushfire/be_ wa.gov.au/ bushfire_ready/be_bushfire_ 1300 362 361 ready_app.jsp