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China's Involvement in Coal-Fired Power Projects Along the Belt and Road

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China's Involvement in Coal-Fired Power Projects Along the Belt and Road China’s Involvement in Coal-Fired Power Projects along the Belt and Road CHINA'S INVOLVEMENT IN COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS ALONG THE BELT AND ROAD Ren Peng, Liu Chang and Zhang Liwen GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL INSTITUTE MAY 2017 Global Environmental Institute May, 2017 | 1 China’s Involvement in Coal-Fired Power Projects along the Belt and Road The Paris Agreement demonstrates the global consensus on 65 countries along the Belt and Road, 1 with a total installed taking joint action to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions capacity of 251,054 MW. 2 At present, 52 of these projects and enhance resilience to climate change. Decarbonization are in the pipeline (planned or signed projects), with a is becoming a major global economic development trend. combined installed capacity of 72,116 MW, accounting for As such, China's involvement in coal-red power projects in 12.66% of coal-red power projects in the pipeline globally; countries along the Belt and Road has attracted the world's 54 projects are under construction, with a combined attention. This paper provides a baseline study on the current installed capacity of 48,005 MW, accounting for 17.59% of status of China's participation in overseas coal-red power coal-red power plants under construction globally; 114 projects. Based on our systematic review of these projects, we projects are in operation, with a combined installed capacity oer the following preliminary conclusions and main ndings. of 88,018 MW, accounting for 4.48% of the coal-red plants in operation globally. 3 Therefore, China has become one of According to our research, by the end of 2016, China had the important players in the development of global coal- been involved in 240 coal-red power projects in 25 of the red power projects. Map 1 | Belt and Road Coal-Fired Power Projects with Chinese Involvement, by Number and Installed Capacity4 Countries along the Belt and Road Installed capacity of coal-fired power projects Russia Mongolia Trukey China Pakistan Bangladesh India INSTALLED CAPACITY COAL-FIRED POWER Vietnam PROJECTS (MW), BY COUNTRY Philippines 150,000 Indonesia 120,000 90,000 60,000 30,000 129,540 31,336 17,525 16,594 14,745 9,320 7,040 5,900 4,381 2,578 2,050 1,980 1,600 1,200 1,010 900 780 600 505 400 350 300 150 150 120 0 India Egypt Serbia Russia Turkey Georgia Lao PDR Lao Pakistan Vietnam Malaysia Romania Sri Lanka Tajikistan Lithuania Mongolia Myanmar Indonesia Cambodia Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Philippines Bangladesh Kazakhstan * This map includes projects that are not yet in operation, representing the total 240 coal-fired Emirates Arab United power plant projects with which China is involved, which span various stages. Bosnia and Herzegovina Global Environmental Institute May, 2017 | 1 China’s Involvement in Coal-Fired Power Projects along the Belt and Road PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS • Since 2001, Chinese development of coal-red power • Western countries were developing coal-red power projects in countries along the Belt and Road has projects in Belt and Road countries before China. Since uctuated, slowing sharply in 2008, 2011 and 2016, and the planning and construction period of coal-red power having peaked in 2010. Chinese involvement in Belt projects is long, over two fths of China's Belt and Road and Road coal-red power projects peaked in 2010. This coal-red power projects are in the pipeline (planned trend shows that China's participation in these projects or signed) or under construction. Meanwhile, the share is aected by global economic shifts, the policies of host of projects supported by investment from China is also countries, and restructuring toward cleaner energy. rising. Given the mounting opposition of the international community to new fossil fuel infrastructure and the • Overseas project contracting is the most common form trend towards accelerated energy restructuring, the risks of involvement for Chinese companies developing coal- associated with these projects may also increase. red power projects in countries along the Belt and Road. Under this approach, the governments or enterprises of host countries issue invitations to bid, whereby Chinese companies have beat other global competitors and secured bids. However, these Chinese companies do not participate in project operation and management, and therefore have no stake in the project's prots and have limited inuence. Relations between China and host countries and policies of the Chinese government are not the primary drivers for these projects; rather, market factors including host countries' need to develop the power sector and the pursuit of prots by Chinese companies motivate China's participation in these projects. Global Environmental Institute May, 2017 | 2 China’s Involvement in Coal-Fired Power Projects along the Belt and Road MAIN FINDINGS • China's coal-red power projects are mostly concentrated • Overseas project contracting is the most common form in South Asia and Southeast Asia. East Asia, West of China's participation, but in recent years, the share of Asia, North Africa and Central and Eastern Europe are projects involving Chinese investment has been rising. becoming new destinations. • Over two fths of projects are in the pipeline (planned or • China's participation has uctuated, slowing down again signed) or under construction. in 2016. • China's ve major state-owned enterprises are the main players, involved in over two thirds projects. Graph 1 | Capacity additions in Belt and Road Coal-Fired Power Projects with Chinese Involvement, by Year and Region Total South Asia Southeast Asia East Asia (MW) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * This chart represents the generation capacity of new projects in a given year. A project is considered a new one if it's signed or its construction begins in that year. Global Environmental Institute May, 2017 | 3 China’s Involvement in Coal-Fired Power Projects along the Belt and Road I. Geographical Distribution a huge inow of foreign direct investment (FDI). Indonesia in particular was less impacted by the crisis. To tackle the South Asia and Southeast Asia are the main project locations, international nancial crisis, Southeast Asian countries accounting for 57.11% and 22.75% of the total Chinese coal- implemented policies to expand domestic demand and red power projects participation along the Belt and Road stimulate their economies. Infrastructure development was respectively. Chinese companies also have had the longest deemed a priority sector for investment. This led China's presence in coal-red power projects in these two regions. India business presence in the region to continue increasing. in South Asia and Indonesia in Southeast Asia rank No.1 and No.2 respectively in terms of installed capacity. China's heavy presence In addition, as Chinese companies have faced increasingly in the region is enabled by the regions' relative political stability, intense competition from traditional markets of South absence of conict, rapid economic growth, and similar level of Asia and Southeast Asia and have sought to "go global" in development and geographical proximity to China. new regions, East Asia, West Asia, North Africa, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia have also become important Since 2010, China's participation in South Asia has been business destinations for Chinese coal-red power companies. shrinking while its presence in Southeast Asia has continued to expand. These trends are related to policy changes in India II. General Development Trends and economic development in Southeast Asia. According to the speed of project uptake in dierent periods, India is the top destination for China's coal-red power projects China has gone through four stages in terms of its participation in South Asia, accounting for 90.35% of the total installed in coal-red power projects in countries along the Belt and Road: capacity of Chinese projects in this region. India's policy changes have directly led to the decrease of China's participation in Indian Stage One (2001 to 2010): Rapid development. Since China projects. In September 2003, the Indian government issued a proposed the "go global" strategy in 2000, China's outbound new electric power legislation to encourage the participation investment has expanded rapidly. Accordingly, the development of private companies in the power sector and support ultra and implementation of China-involved overseas coal power mega power projects. This policy shift drove up Chinese exports projects accelerated during this period alongside more diverse of electromechanical equipment to India. As such, equipment forms of participation. China's coal projects were mainly located exports constituted the bulk of China's participation in Indian in Southeast Asia and South Asia during this phase. coal-red power projects. However, in 2009, India began to adopt Stage Two (2010 to 2013): Slow growth. During this stage, a protectionist policy and explicitly banned foreign participation Chinese overseas coal power development slowed largely due in 11 major boiler/turbine power generator projects. In July 2012, to domestic policy changes in India as explained above.5 the Indian government instated a 21% import duty on power equipment and cancelled duty exemption for ultra mega power Stage Three (2013 to 2015): Rapid growth. In 2013, mainstream generation projects of over 1,000 MW, which resulted in the international nancial institutions changed their attitude sharp decrease of
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