High Speed 2 Strategic Alternatives Study Strategic Outline Case March 2010 Notice This document and its contents have been prepared and are intended solely for the Department for Transport’s information and use in relation to the High Speed 2 Strategic Alternatives Study. Atkins assumes no responsibility to any other party in respect of or arising out of or in connection with this document and/or its contents. Document History JOB NUMBER: 5087288 DOCUMENT REF: Document2 6 Final JF JT WL 4/3/10 5 Final Draft v3 JT JF WL 19/2/10 4 Final Draft v2 JT JF WL 22/1/10 3 Final Draft v1 JT JF WL PWHR 15/1/10 2 Second Draft JT JF WL PWHR 21/12/09 1 First Draft JT JF WL PWHR 11/12/09 Revision Purpose Description Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date 5087288/Strategic Outline Case_Final.doc High Speed 2 Strategic Alternatives Study – Strategic Outline Case Contents Section Page 1. Introduction 5 1.1 Background 5 1.2 Purpose of the Report 5 1.3 Structure of the Report 5 2. The Strategic Case 6 2.1 Introduction 6 2.2 The need to examine strategic alternatives 6 2.3 The need for ‘packaging’ alternatives 7 2.4 The case for Rail Interventions 7 2.5 The case for Highway Interventions 7 3. Description of Packages 9 3.1 Introduction 9 3.2 The Future Year Baseline 9 3.3 Rail Interventions 26 3.4 Highway Interventions 30 3.5 Package Deliverables 37 3.6 Summary 40 4. The Value for Money Case 41 4.1 Introduction 41 4.2 Appraisal Framework - Methodology 41 4.3 Appraisal Framework - Results 45 4.4 Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions 45 4.5 Natural and Cultural and Resource Protection 47 4.6 Creating Sustainable Communities 50 4.7 Sustainable Consumption and Production 55 4.8 Economic Appraisal 55 4.9 Summary 63 5. The Commercial Case 65 5.1 Introduction 65 5.2 Procurement 65 5.3 Industry Capacity 65 6. The Financial Case 67 6.1 Introduction 67 6.2 Package Costs 67 7. The Management Case 71 7.1 Introduction 71 7.2 Delivery 71 7.3 Disruption to the Travelling Public 71 8. Summary and Conclusions 73 8.1 Rail Packages 73 /Strategic Outline Case_Final.doc 2 High Speed 2 Strategic Alternatives Study – Strategic Outline Case 8.2 Highway Packages 75 List of Tables Table 3.1 – Do Minimum Rail Forecast Demand 12 Table 3.2 – HS2 Forecast Strategic Highway Demand Matrices 17 Table 3.3 – Rail Intervention Packages 27 Table 3.4 – Rail Intervention Package Components 29 Table 3.5 – Rationale and Components of the Proposed Intervention Packages 31 Table 3.6 – Comparison of Current and Proposed Motorway Packages 32 Table 3.7 – Forecast Capacity & Crowding Impacts of the Rail Packages 38 Table 3.8 – Typical Journey Times Impacts (in minutes) 39 Table 3.9 – Proposed length of Highway Intervention Packages in kilometres & (miles) 40 Table 3.10 – NTM Estimated Journey Times Resulting from the Highway Intervention Packages (minutes) 40 Table 4.1 - Nominal Scheme Capital Costs for Rail-Based Packages (£m, 2009 prices and values) 56 Table 4.2 – Nominal Scheme Capital Cost of Rolling Stock (£m, 2009 prices and values) 57 Table 4.3 –Scheme Capital Costs for Rail-Based Packages (£m, 2009 prices and values) 57 Table 4.4 – Rail Operating Costs included in the Economic Appraisal when Rolling Stock is Assumed to be a Capital Cost (£m, 2009) 57 Table 4.5 – Rail Operating Costs included in the Economic Appraisal when Rolling Stock is Assumed to be Leased (£m, 2009) 57 Table 4.6 – Estimated 2021 Modal Transfer & Rail Trip Generation due to Rail Package Interventions (trips per day) 58 Table 4.7 – Economic Summary Statistics for Rail Packages – Assuming Rolling Stock is a Capital Cost (£m, 2009 prices & values) 58 Table 4.8 - Economic Summary Statistics for Rail Packages – Assuming Rolling Stock is Leased (£m, 2009 prices & values) 59 Table 4.9 – Package 3A Nominal Scheme Capital Costs, including Rolling Stock (£m, 2009 prices) 60 Table 4.10 – Economic Summary Statistics for Rail Sensitivity Tests – Assuming Rolling Stock is a Capital Cost (£m, 2009 prices & values) 61 Table 4.11 – Economic Summary Statistics for Rail Sensitivity Tests – Assuming Rolling Stock is Leased (£m, 2009 prices & values) 61 Table 4.12 – Discounted Scheme Capital Costs for Roads Based Packages (£m, 2009 prices) 62 Table 4.13 – Economic Summary Statistics for Road Packages (£m, 2009 prices & values) 63 Table 6.1 – Rail Packages – Total Capital Costs (2009) 69 Table 6.2 – Rail Packages - Operating Costs 69 Table 6.3 – Highway Packages - Capital Costs (2009 prices) 70 List of Figures Figure 3.1 – HS2: 2021 & 2033 Do Minimum Committed Rail Schemes 11 Figure 3.2 – HS2: 2021 Do Minimum Committed Motorway Schemes in the London – West Midlands Corridor 14 Figure 3.3 – HS2: 2033 Do Minimum Committed Motorway Schemes in London – West Midlands Corridor 15 Figure 3.4 – HS2: 2031 Do Minimum Motorway Network London – West Midlands Corridor 16 Figure 3.5 – HS2: PLD WCML Long Distance & Chiltern Services Rail Passenger Volumes (two way) 19 Figure 3.6 – HS2: PLD Rail Seated Capacity (16 hour 2 way, WCML long distance & Chiltern services only)20 Figure 3.7 - HS2: PLD WCML Long Distance & Chiltern Services Rail Passenger Crowding (16hr 2 way) 21 Figure 3.8 – HS2: Forecast Average Hourly Two-Way Traffic Volumes (Observed Flows) 23 Figure 3.9 – HS2: Forecast Peak Hour Volume over Capacity Southbound and Eastbound (Observed Flows)24 /Strategic Outline Case_Final.doc 3 High Speed 2 Strategic Alternatives Study – Strategic Outline Case Figure 3.10 – HS2: Forecast Peak Hour Volume over Capacity Northbound and Westbound (Observed Flows) 25 Figure 3.11 - HS2: Road Network incorporating Package 1 Proposals 33 Figure 3.12 - HS2: Road Network incorporating Package 2 Proposals 34 Figure 3.13 - HS2: Road Network incorporating Package 3 Proposals 35 Figure 3.14 - HS2: Road Network incorporating Package 4 Proposals 36 Figure 4.1 – The Potential Impact of Railway Intervention Packages on Agglomeration 52 Figure 4.2 – Railway Intervention Impacts on Economic Welfare (Distribution) 53 Appendices Appendix A 77 Appendix B 78 Appendix C 79 Appendix D 80 Appendix E 90 Appendix F 94 /Strategic Outline Case_Final.doc 4 High Speed 2 Strategic Alternatives Study – Strategic Outline Case 1. Introduction 1.1 Background Atkins was appointed by the Department for Transport (DfT) in August 2009, to consider road and rail improvement alternatives to the High Speed Rail proposition, being developed by HS2 Ltd. The main objective of HS2 Ltd is to consider the case for new high speed services between London and the West Midlands. However, in appraising the HS2 business case, and reaching investment decisions, it is necessary to take into account the case for a range of strategic alternatives to HS2, hence this study. This study has looked at a range of road and rail interventions on the existing networks between London and the West Midlands, to increase both the passenger and freight capabilities in line with forecast demand, as well as bringing down journey times between the two conurbations. 1.2 Purpose of the Report This document forms the final study report document and provides the Strategic Outline Case for the road and rail alternatives to HS2, in accordance with Her Majesty’s Treasury 5 Case Model guidance. The report outlines the Strategic Case for the alternatives being considered, it summarises the interventions developed, and then looks at the Economic (or in this case Value for Money), Commercial, Financial, and Management Cases for the alternative interventions. It should be noted that, at this early stage of the development of the alternatives under consideration, this document focuses on the Economic Case. The other Cases will be developed in more detail should the alternatives be progressed further. The analysis of packages of improvement on the existing road and rail networks set out in this document are intended to complement the analysis undertaken by HS2 Ltd of the development of new alignments. A series of detailed reports on specific items have also been produced during the course of the study. These documents are referenced in this Strategic Outline Case document, so they should be considered as supporting documents to this report. They include: • Baseline Report; • Highway Intervention Report; and • Rail Intervention Report. 1.3 Structure of the Report The remainder of this report is structured in the following manner: • Section 2 details the Strategic Case for potential interventions; • Section 3 outlines the description of packages of potential interventions being examined; • Section 4 details the Economic Case; • Section 5 details the Commercial Case; • Section 6 details the Financial Case; • Section 7 details the Management Case; and • Section 8 summarises the findings of the report and draws out conclusions from the work undertaken. /Strategic Outline Case_Final.doc 5 High Speed 2 Strategic Alternatives Study – Strategic Outline Case 2. The Strategic Case 2.1 Introduction In early 2009 the Government set up HS2 Ltd to examine potential options for introducing High Speed Rail between London and the West Midlands, and potentially beyond. HS2 submitted a report to Ministers at the end of December 2009. While HS2 Ltd is investigating the case for High Speed Rail both from London to the West Midlands and for a wider network, the business case for alternative schemes also needs to be examined. The purpose of this High Speed 2 Strategic Alternatives study is to evaluate those alternative schemes. The case for these strategic alternatives is aligned with the high speed rail study objectives. The two highest priorities for the new line are: • passenger capacity ( including capacity released on classic lines); and • speed, which should be sufficiently high to optimise journey time benefits balanced with operational energy costs and maximised capacity.