2018 LEGISLATIVE FORECAST A Steep Climb to Common Ground Informing Policy. Advancing Health. Acknowledgements Colorado Health Institute staff contributors to this report: • Joe Hanel, Associate Director of Strategic Communications, Coauthor • Allie Morgan, Associate Director for Legislative Services, Coauthor • Brian Clark • Cliff Foster • Deborah Goeken • Emily Johnson • Ian Pelto Special thanks to CHI’s legislative monitors, Jennifer Miles and her team at Frontline Public Affairs, and Mike Beasley of 5280 Strategies, for their advice and insight. Our Funders 2 Colorado Health Institute A Steep Climb to Common Ground JANUARY 10, 2018 The end is near for much of the political leadership at the Colorado State Capitol. The state’s term limits law means 2018 will be the final legislative session for the speaker of the House, the Senate president and Gov. John Hickenlooper. Hickenlooper, a two-term Democrat who also served But Washington politics will bring another year of twice as Denver mayor, has sought to govern from uncertainty to the state, especially surrounding health the center during his years at the helm in Colorado. care. The Trump administration struggled in 2017 to But common ground between the two parties will translate its goals into policy, as evidenced by the failure be difficult to find during his final legislative session, to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA). But the White particularly because 2018 is an election year. House brushed aside legislative setbacks and turned to executive action to roll back key features of the ACA and It will be the fourth straight year of a one-vote shorten the enrollment period for private insurance. And Republican majority in the Senate and a more Congress ended the year by repealing the individual substantial Democratic advantage in the House. mandate as part of the tax cut bill. Divided control of the legislature means big plans are hard to achieve. Legislators should have little Meanwhile, the political parties already are fixated trouble finding bipartisan cooperation for minor bills on the November elections, which will see control of that tweak the way government runs. But headline- Congress, the Colorado legislature and the governor’s making proposals on topics such as transportation mansion up for grabs. funding and health care tend to fall victim to partisan gridlock. Many of these dynamics could combine to make 2018 a year of marking time. The race for governor is especially That said, the substance use crisis may present the important. Both parties have a large field of politically best opportunity for bipartisanship. A record 904 diverse candidates, so the outcome of the election could Coloradans died of drug overdoses in 2016, more than set a new direction for Colorado and for the identity of half from opioids, and concern about the problem the Republican and Democratic parties in the state. has been building. A bipartisan committee worked long hours last summer and fall to offer legislators six So, even if the legislature fails to accomplish much in bills designed to curb the effects of the drug epidemic. 2018, it will be a consequential year for the future of the (See Page 9.) state — and the health of its residents. Colorado Health Institute 3 The Political Landscape Leading Candidates for Governor DEMOCRATS Colorado’s 2018 governor’s race features the most competitive field of candidates in recent Noel Ginsburg: Businessman memory. Each party has five candidates with the who founded Intertech Plastic funding and organizational strength to make a and CareerWise Colorado, an credible run. apprenticeship program for high school students. Ginsburg focuses The winner can set a new direction for Colorado, on improving economic opportunity so the state could swing significantly to the through workforce training. left or the right. The new governor will have a powerful influence Mike Johnston: Former state senator over spending and educator. Johnston sponsored priorities, the future the law to tie teacher tenure to their direction of Health students’ performance and led an First Colorado (the unsuccessful campaign to raise state’s Medicaid taxes for schools. He seeks to bridge program), and public the urban-rural divide, improve K-12 health initiatives such education and broaden access to as immunizations, community colleges. birth control and health surveys. Cary Kennedy: Former state treasurer and former chief financial The race also officer of Denver. As treasurer, will influence Kennedy led the creation of a Gov. John Hickenlooper the direction of program to replace aging school Colorado’s political buildings. She is pushing for a parties. Both major parties are undergoing an Medicaid-based public option for identity crisis. health coverage in Colorado. A large activist wing of the Democratic Party Donna Lynne: Lieutenant governor is eager to turn the page on the centrist, and former Kaiser Permanente pro-business policies of the Hickenlooper executive. Lynne lobbied administration and embrace a more progressive unsuccessfully for bills to lower agenda. the price of insurance and open hospital finances to public inspection. Republicans, meanwhile, are deciding whether She wants to build on pieces of they want to be the party of President Donald Hickenlooper’s agenda, including his Trump. Trump did worse in Colorado than statewide water plan and his support the 2012 Republican candidate, Mitt Romney, of the ACA. especially in the party’s strongholds in suburban Denver and Colorado Springs. But Trump Jared Polis: Representative from outperformed Romney in rural Colorado, a Colorado’s Second Congressional result that shows the state’s famous urban-rural District. Polis, an Internet divide exists inside the GOP as well. entrepreneur, was the main backer of Colorado’s voter-adopted ethics law. Control of the legislature is up for grabs, too. He supports full-day kindergarten Democrats hold the House by a 37-28 margin, and preschool for all Colorado kids, but Republicans control the Senate by just one and he wants Colorado to get 100 seat. Democrats are aiming to beat Republican percent of its energy from renewable incumbents in close districts, such as those in sources by 2040. Jefferson and Adams counties, to reclaim the Senate majority for the first time in four years. 4 Colorado Health Institute A Steep Climb to Common Ground JANUARY 10, 2018 REPUBLICANS Key Dates for Cynthia Coffman: Current 2018 Election Colorado Attorney General. Coffman stands out among most Republican March 6: officials for her moderate stances on Precinct caucuses for party activists: LGBT rights and treatment of drug The first step to becoming a delegate users. She is concerned about the to the state convention. opioid epidemic and the effects of rapid growth on affordable housing and the state’s infrastructure. March 20: Deadline for candidates to submit petitions to be Victor Mitchell: Former state included on the primary ballot if they don’t want to representative and businessman go through the state convention. who founded several companies. Mitchell proposes to increase access April 14: to health care through a new system Last day for political parties to hold state of low-cost primary care clinics that conventions. Candidates need support of at least work outside the health insurance 30 percent of the delegates to win a spot on the system. party primary ballot. Doug Robinson: Retired businessman and cofounder of a June 26: financial firm. Robinson supports Party primary election day. Winners of the primary reducing Medicaid costs while get their party’s spot on the November ballot. still providing care. In education, he wants more use of charter October 15: schools, vocational training, and Mail ballots sent to voters. science, technology, engineering and math courses. He supports tighter regulations on the marijuana November 6: industry. Election Day. Walker Stapleton: State treasurer. Stapleton is a critic of the Public Employees Retirement Association What is a caucus? and wants to restructure the system to avoid insolvency. He supports Neighborhood caucuses are the first the expansion of charter schools step for Democratic and Republican and promotion of the oil and gas candidates toward winning their party’s industry as a major part of the state’s nomination in Colorado. The state’s economy. history of using the caucus system – which is also employed by a handful Tom Tancredo: Former U.S. of other states – goes back more than representative and presidential 100 years. Caucuses are held in about candidate. Tancredo is a longtime 3,000 neighborhoods across Colorado opponent of undocumented and take place in locations such as immigration. He promotes a school gymnasiums, churches and even conservative agenda of gun rights, people’s homes. banning “sanctuary cities” and opposing abortion. Colorado Health Institute 5 The 71st Colorado General Assembly THE SENATE: 18 votes to pass a bill 18 Republicans 16 Democrats, 1 Unaffiliated President Kevin Grantham Republican, Cañon City Term Limited THE HOUSE: 33 votes to pass a bill 37 Democrats 28 Republicans Speaker Crisanta Duran Democrat, Denver HEALTH COMMITTEES Senate Health and House Health, Insurance House Public Health Care Human Services and Environment and Human Services Republicans Democrats Democrats • Sen. Jim Smallwood, • Rep. Joann Ginal, chair • Rep. Jonathan Singer, chair chair • Rep. Daneya Esgar, • Rep. Jessie Danielson, vice chair • Sen. Beth Martinez vice chair • Rep. Joann Ginal Humenik, Vice Chair • Rep. Janet