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Preventing Or Redirecting Violence a Study on Violence Against United Nations Peackeeping Operations in the Presence of Other Third-Party Military Operations

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Preventing Or Redirecting Violence a Study on Violence Against United Nations Peackeeping Operations in the Presence of Other Third-Party Military Operations PREVENTING OR REDIRECTING VIOLENCE A STUDY ON VIOLENCE AGAINST UNITED NATIONS PEACKEEPING OPERATIONS IN THE PRESENCE OF OTHER THIRD-PARTY MILITARY OPERATIONS Daniel Forslund Master's Thesis Autumn 2020 Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University Supervisor: Lisa Hultman Word Count: 21639 Abstract United nations peacekeeping is a contentious issue. What is mostly agreed on though, is that the brave men and women around the world risking their lives in peacekeeping missions around the world deserve the best security and protection the international community can offer. However, little research has been focused on the reasons behind violence against peacekeepers. This thesis theorizes that the presence of a third-party military operation that threatens the operational capabilities of rebel groups has the potential to cause an increase in rebel violence against a United Nations Peacekeeping operation in the same conflict. Through examining conflict dynamics in the cases of Mali and the Central African Republic utilizing of a structured, focused comparison, the hypothesized relationship and causal explanations were put to the test. The expectation was that in Mali, the high levels of violence would be explained by the effectiveness of the French counterinsurgency operation in the country. In the Central African Republic, the contrary was expected. However, the hypothesis could not be confirmed. Due to some rather large caveats and limitations, the research gap could not be satisfied. Nonetheless, the study creates plenty for avenues of future research, and opportunities to learn from the challenges encountered. Acknowledgements This thesis came awfully close to never being finished. Thus, I owe several people a lot of gratitude for helping me getting here. First, I want to thank my supervisor, Lisa Hultman, for getting me on the right track and some invaluable pointers on how to go ahead with the research process. I also want to thank my friends, for continuously believing in me when not even I did. And finally, I want to thank my Family, who have supported me without hesitation throughout this journey. Thank you. Contents 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................... 1 2. Previous literature ................................................................................................ 3 Increase in fatalities among UN peacekeepers ............................................. 3 Beyond numbers ........................................................................................... 5 Evolution of UN peacekeeping operations ................................................... 7 Identifying a research gap ............................................................................. 8 3. Theoretical framework ....................................................................................... 10 Concepts and definitions ............................................................................ 10 Constructing a theoretical chain ................................................................. 11 3.2.1. UN peacekeeping as a fighting force – risks and rewards ...................... 11 3.2.2. UN peacekeeping and allied military operations .................................... 13 3.2.3. Causal mechanism ................................................................................... 14 4. Research design and case selection .................................................................... 20 Research method ......................................................................................... 20 Operationalisation ....................................................................................... 20 Questions .................................................................................................... 23 Case selection ............................................................................................. 24 4.5 Sources and Data ............................................................................................ 28 5. The Cases ........................................................................................................... 29 The conflict in Mali .................................................................................... 29 5.1.1 2016 in Mali ............................................................................................. 31 Central African Republic - CAR ................................................................ 33 5.2.1. 2016 in the Central African Republic ..................................................... 35 6. Case comparison ................................................................................................ 37 Dependent variable ..................................................................................... 37 Independent Variable .................................................................................. 40 Causal mechanism ...................................................................................... 42 7. Analysis.............................................................................................................. 44 Mali ............................................................................................................. 44 Central African Republic ............................................................................ 46 Implications for the hypothesis and causal mechanism .............................. 48 8. Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 51 9. Bibliography ...................................................................................................... 53 1. Introduction Peacekeepers have always been at risk of becoming the target of physical violence and attacks as they are deployed to conflict zones around the world. United Nations peacekeeping operations have evolved to become one of the primary conflict management tools at the disposal of the international community (Sandler 2017). However, the nature of conflicts has dramatically changed since the first armed peacekeeping operation was deployed in 1956 and have become ever more complex and challenging. Consequently, UN peacekeeping operations have had to adapt over time, continually facing new challenges to all parts of their operation, including the security and protection of the peacekeeping personnel (Hultman, Kathman, and Shannon 2019; Conley and Langholtz 2014; Sloan 2014). The 2017 independent report “Improving security of United Nations Peacekeepers: We need to change the way we are doing business” (Cruz 2017) sheds light on the ever-growing challenges faced by the United Nations in its peacekeeping operations. The report reviews what the author identifies as a worrying increase in fatalities and injuries to uniformed personnel deployed to peacekeeping operations from 2013 to 2017. It discusses and analyses possible causes and solutions to what the report calls a number of fatalities that “go beyond a normal or acceptable level of risk”, calling for action to improve the safety of UN peacekeeping personnel. The use of UN peacekeeping operations as a tool for not only conflict resolution but also for other tasks such as the protection of civilians in conflict environments has become increasingly common over the years. As a consequence, political discussion on issues like what role UN peacekeeping should play in conflicts has also gained traction. One recurring topic over the years has been the reluctance of western countries to contribute troops to missions deemed dangerous, presumably fearing for the safety of their troops and the risk of potential backlash at home (Tardy 2011). The positioning of UN peacekeeping operations in ongoing armed conflicts is another contested topic, where some argue that UN peacekeeping is not suited to operate in such environments (Karlsrud 2015; Tardy 2011). With so much political discussion on topics closely related to the safety and protection of UN peacekeeping personnel, it would be no stretch to assume that academic research interest would be growing accordingly. However, this is not the case. The broader topic of UN peacekeeping operations has enjoyed a moderate amount of academic research interest over the years, with most research focusing on either the evolution of peacekeeping operations 1 throughout history or the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping operations (Fortna and Howard 2008; Gizelis, Dorussen, and Petrova 2016). Meanwhile, the specific topic of violence against peacekeepers, under what circumstances it occurs and what motivates it, remains severely underresearched (Duursma 2019). It is indeed only during the last decade that a small amount of academic research has attempted to shed some light on this phenomenon (Duursma 2019; Lindberg Bromley 2017). It seems clear then that in order to gain insight into the motivations behind violence against peacekeepers, it is essential to examine the internal dynamics of the conflicts in which it occurs. Research has shown that rebel groups experiencing battlefield losses against the government have incentives to target peacekeepers and as a result, are more likely to do so (Fjelde, Hultman, and Lindberg Bromley 2016). Another factor that may cause UN peacekeepers to become targets of violence is if the peacekeeping operations are seen as part of the conflict rather than as an impartial third-party, which can happen through several mechanisms. This thesis
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