DOCSLIB.ORG

Falck Renewables Buy

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Falck Renewables Buy This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Claudia INTROVIGNE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2017-05-15 10:11:06 F Full report Equity Research Espresso FKR IM 1.30 EQCR Italy News comment Falck Renewables Buy Italy | Utilities | MCAP EUR 343.9m Target Price EUR 1.30 Current Price EUR 1.18 Up/downside 10.2% Change in TP none 12 May 2017 Change in EPS none 17E / none 18E Positive results despite weak wind Claudia Introvigne Equity Research Analyst [email protected] +39 02 8550 7220 Q1 results came out above our estimates, despite poor wind conditions. Market data Bloomberg: FKR IM Reuters: AA4.MI The company is successfully working on deploying its business plan. A Market cap (EURm) 344 conference call is set for today at 11:00 CET - Buy confirmed. Free float 37% No. of shares outstanding (m) 291 Avg. daily volume (EURm) 1.0 YTD abs performance 27.8% 52-week high/low (EUR) 1.20/0.65 Quarterly results (EURm) FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 YOY QOQ Q1 17E Act/Est Sales (m) 266.9 274.9 302.1 Revenues 73 55 51 70 78 5.9% 11.2% 75 3.3% EBITDA adj (m) 134.4 139.5 159.5 EBITDA 43 29 25 40 45 6.3% 12.1% 42 8.7% EBIT adj (m) 59.9 63.2 83.5 Margin 58.2% 51.8% 48.0% 58.0% 58.5% 55.6% Net profit adj (m) 9.2 10.0 22.5 EBIT 26 10 9 31 28 9.6% -9.1% 25 14.2% Net fin. debt (m) 591.8 625.5 580.2 Margin 35.1% 18.1% 16.9% 44.5% 36.3% 32.9% FCF (m) -11.2 -15.3 69.2 Pre-tax 16 20 17 16.9% EPS adj. and fully dil. 0.03 0.03 0.08 profit Consensus EPS 0.03 0.04 0.08 Net debt 589 589 592 562 565 -4.1% 0.5% 565 0.0% Net dividend 0.05 0.06 0.06 Source: Company data, Kepler Cheuvreux FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/17E 12/18E 12/19E P/E adj and ful. dil. 37.3 34.4 15.3 EV/EBITDA 7.2 7.2 6.0 Good prices and perimeter more than offset weak wind EV/EBIT 16.0 15.8 11.5 Q1 EBITDA came out at EUR45m (KECH: EUR42m), up 5.9% YOY, FCF yield -2.8% -3.8% 17.4% representing already 34% of our 2017 estimate. The enlarged perimeter Dividend yield 4.5% 4.9% 5.3% Net fin.debt/EBITDA 4.4 4.5 3.6 (785MW vs. 726MW in Q1 2016) and the higher prices in Italy and the UK Gearing 120.1% 126.7% 114.8% more than offset the weak wind (497GWh, -3% YOY), especially in Italy, ROIC 3.5% 3.5% 4.7% and the devaluation of the British pound against the euro in the UK. The EV/IC 0.9 1.0 0.9 pre-tax profit grew by 17% YOY to EUR20m (KECH: EUR17m), thanks to 1.2 lower financial charges. The net debt at end-March stood at EUR565m (KECH: EUR565m), almost in line QOQ and in line with our estimates. 1.1 1.0 Guidance already out The guidance for 2017 in terms of EBITDA is a EUR132-136m range 0.9 versus our EUR134m estimate. Net debt guidance is EUR626m, while we 0.8 are already more positive with our EUR592m estimate. DPS guidance is 0.7 EUR0.053, and we are in line. 0.6 May 16 Aug 16 Nov 16 Feb 17 May 17 Price DJ Stoxx 600 (rebased) IMPORTANT. Please refer to keplercheuvreux.com\disclaimer for keplercheuvreux.com “Important disclosures” and analyst certification(s). This research is the product of Kepler Cheuvreux, which is authorised and regulated by the Autorité des Marché Financiers in France. This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Claudia INTROVIGNE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2017-05-15 10:11:06 Falck Renewables Buy TP EUR 1.30 Key financials FY to 31/12 (EUR) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Income Statement (EURm) Sales 274.6 275.9 257.7 270.7 249.6 266.9 274.9 302.1 % Change 10.4% 0.5% -6.6% 5.1% -7.8% 6.9% 3.0% 9.9% EBITDA adjusted 158.0 157.0 135.0 152.4 136.2 134.4 139.5 159.5 EBITDA margin (%) 57.5% 56.9% 52.4% 56.3% 54.6% 50.4% 50.7% 52.8% EBIT adjusted -21.4 79.3 70.8 66.3 59.6 59.9 63.2 83.5 EBIT margin (%) -7.8% 28.7% 27.5% 24.5% 23.9% 22.4% 23.0% 27.7% Net financial items & associates -46.4 -48.5 -49.2 -42.5 -40.2 -32.8 -34.7 -33.4 Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 Tax -17.6 -15.9 -12.6 -5.1 -17.5 -11.4 -11.9 -20.7 Net profit from continuing operations -85.4 15.0 9.0 18.7 1.9 15.7 16.5 30.5 Net profit from discontinuing activities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net profit before minorities -85.4 15.0 9.0 18.7 1.9 15.7 16.5 30.5 Net profit reported -85.4 15.0 3.4 4.7 -3.9 9.2 10.0 21.5 Net profit adjusted -85.4 15.0 3.4 4.7 11.1 9.2 10.0 22.5 Cash Flow Statement (EURm) Cash flow from operating activities 77.3 89.8 65.4 106.4 122.0 99.0 91.7 103.5 Capex -58.3 -17.5 -55.9 -60.0 -92.5 -110.2 -107.0 -34.3 Free cash flow 19.0 72.4 9.5 46.4 29.5 -11.2 -15.3 69.2 Acquisitions & Divestments 0.0 0.0 110.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 Dividend paid -8.2 0.0 -9.3 -18.1 -13.1 -14.3 -15.4 -16.9 Others -88.9 15.1 7.4 -21.1 51.1 -3.0 0.0 2.0 Change in net financial debt -78.1 87.5 117.6 7.3 67.4 -28.5 -30.7 55.3 Balance Sheet (EURm) Intangible assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tangible assets 1,035.0 1,012.8 965.7 973.2 957.6 993.3 1,024.0 982.4 Financial & other non-current assets 133.0 124.5 162.7 176.9 145.9 148.9 151.9 154.9 Total shareholders' equity 343.7 378.8 499.8 519.0 491.3 492.7 493.8 505.4 Pension provisions 4.4 4.4 4.5 5.1 5.4 4.9 5.0 5.1 Liabilities and provisions 1,132.9 1,054.1 993.8 908.5 1,033.5 1,078.1 1,113.5 1,072.9 Net financial debt 843.1 755.6 638.0 630.8 563.3 591.8 625.5 580.2 Working capital requirement 77.6 56.0 68.4 67.9 32.6 23.9 25.0 29.9 Invested Capital 1,112.6 1,068.8 1,034.2 1,041.1 990.3 1,017.2 1,049.0 1,012.3 Per share data EPS adjusted -0.29 0.05 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.08 EPS adj and fully diluted -0.29 0.05 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.08 % Change -chg +chg -77.5% 39.7% 135.4% -16.6% 8.4% 125.2% EPS reported -0.29 0.05 0.01 0.02 -0.01 0.03 0.03 0.07 Cash flow per share 0.27 0.31 0.22 0.37 0.42 0.34 0.31 0.36 Book value per share 1.18 1.28 1.61 1.62 1.56 1.55 1.53 1.54 Dividend per share 0.00 0.03 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 Number of shares, YE (m) 291.41 291.41 291.41 291.41 291.41 291.41 291.41 291.41 Ratios ROE (%) -21.7% 4.2% 0.8% 1.0% 2.4% 2.0% 2.2% 5.0% ROIC (%) -1.0% 3.5% 2.8% 5.0% 3.2% 3.5% 3.5% 4.7% Net fin. debt / EBITDA (x) 5.3 4.8 4.7 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.5 3.6 Gearing (%) 245.3% 199.5% 127.7% 121.5% 114.7% 120.1% 126.7% 114.8% Valuation P/E adjusted na 19.6 106.2 70.1 22.1 37.3 34.4 15.3 P/E adjusted and fully diluted na 19.6 106.2 70.1 22.1 37.3 34.4 15.3 P/BV 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 P/CF 3.4 3.3 5.5 3.1 2.0 3.5 3.7 3.3 Dividend yield (%) 0.0% 3.2% 5.1% 4.0% 5.8% 4.5% 4.9% 5.3% FCF yield (%) 6.2% 21.0% 2.3% 12.0% 10.2% -2.8% -3.8% 17.4% EV/Sales 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.2 EV/EBITDA 7.0 6.7 7.5 6.5 6.1 7.2 7.2 6.0 EV/EBIT na 13.4 14.3 14.9 13.9 16.0 15.8 11.5 2 keplercheuvreux.com This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Claudia INTROVIGNE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2017-05-15 10:11:06 Falck Renewables Buy TP EUR 1.30 Research ratings and important disclosures The term "KEPLER CHEUVREUX" shall, unless the context otherwise requires, mean each of KEPLER CHEUVREUX and its affiliates, subsidiaries and related companies (see “Regulators” table below).
Load more

Recommended publications
  • CIMB Securities / Kepler Cheuvreux– June 21, 2019 a Resilient Business Thanks to Group’S Global Geographic Exposure and Wide Product Offering
    JUNE 21, 2019 SEOUL CIMB SECURITIES /KEPLER CHEUVREUX Leverage on Group’s strengths, in four domains of growth, to enhance customers mobility and create value Michelin strengths Four domains of growth Michelin Brand leadership Michelin Man sacred* "Icon of the Millennium" High-tech material leadership 125 years of competencies and innovations in flexible composite materials and transformation processes Employees engagement In 2018, 80% of employees say they are proud and happy to work at Michelin *By American magazine advertising week 22 Seoul - CIMB Securities / Kepler Cheuvreux– June 21, 2019 A resilient business thanks to Group’s global geographic exposure and wide product offering 2018 sales by region 2018 sales by growth driver 39% PCTC RT 35% 43% 19% Consomma - CommoditésCommodities Consumption tion 25% 26% TCPC OE OE Manufacturing 1213% Auto Europe incl. Russia & CIS PC OE/RT: Passenger car and light truck tires sold as original equipment (PC OE) or in replacement markets (PC RT) Asia and rest of the world North America incl. Mexico 3 Seoul - CIMB Securities / Kepler Cheuvreux– June 21, 2019 June 21, 2019 Seoul - CIMB Securities / Kepler Cheuvreux Levers of growth Tires Tires 5 Seoul - CIMB Securities / Kepler Cheuvreux– June 21, 2019 Tire market growth prospects Tires 2019e Markets 2020 and Michelin growth (in millions units) beyond ambitions Growth in line with ~ +2% CAGR SR1 +0% / +1% markets Value-creating SR2 ~ -1% 0 to +1% CAGR growth Growth above SR3 +3% / +5% ~ +3% CAGR markets 6 Seoul - CIMB Securities / Kepler Cheuvreux– June 21, 2019 Recognized brand and technical leadership supporting pricing power Tires ● Recent Tirelines have already been Since 1989, Michelin has won 91 of the 112 acclaimed by some of the most demanding awards for OE tire satisfaction German car magazines Manufacturer of the year 2019 with ● The two latest additions to the MICHELIN Pilot Sport family presented at the Geneva International Motor Show MICHELIN MICHELIN Pilot Sport Pilot Sport Cup2 R 4 SUV Source: 2018 J.D.
    [Show full text]
  • General Terms and Conditions of Business
    10 March 2020 GENERAL TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF BUSINESS BETWEEN THE KEPLER CHEUVREUX GROUP AND THEIR RESPECTIVE CLIENTS (The “CLIENTS”) KEPLER CHEUVREUX. KEPLER CHEUVREUX Group 112 Avenue Kléber– 75116 Paris- France tel : +33 (0)153 65 35 00 – www.keplercheuvreux.com Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................................... 2 GENERAL TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF BUSINESS .............................................................................. 3 1. INTERPRETATION .............................................................................................................. 4 2. THE SERVICES PROVIDED BY KEPLER CHEUVREUX ................................................... 6 3. RISKS DISCLOSURE .......................................................................................................... 6 4. CLIENT CLASSIFICATION .................................................................................................. 7 5. REPRESENTATIONS, WARRANTIES AND UNDERTAKINGS .......................................... 7 6. INVESTMENT RESEARCH AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ................................................... 8 7. GIVING ORDERS ................................................................................................................. 9 8. EXECUTION OF ORDERS ................................................................................................ 10 9. CONFIRMATIONS OF TRANSACTIONS .........................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Global Goals: More Than a Rebranding
    This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Eric BORREMANS - Pictet Asset Management - generated at 2018-04-27 12:07:41 360 Report $Com panySectorName$ $StoryName$EG_3 R SDGs Impact Screener Thematic & Impact Investing 18 April 2018 x Global goals: more than a rebranding What’s it all about? The UN’s global long-term sustainability objectives, also known as its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), still look like a wish list to try to save the world by 2030 by shaping discourse and communications. At first glance, they do not seem particularly relevant for capital markets in terms of Main author investment risks or returns. Thus, it is unclear whether they have any teeth Samuel Mary and can serve to inform stock analysis beyond a simple reframing of what is Senior Sustainability Research Analyst already being done by using a new, slick term. However, we continue to think [email protected] they are relevant, and in this report, we examine why that is the case by +44 207 621 5190 exploring which SDGs matter most, as well as when, where, and how they create actionable investment opportunities linked to innovative businesses, ESG research team in addition to serving as a base for sector and company insight. Biographies at the end of the report IMPORTANT. Please refer to the last page of this report for keplercheuvreux.com “Important disclosures” and analyst(s) certifications. This research is the product of Kepler Cheuvreux, which is authorised and regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers in France. This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Eric BORREMANS - Pictet Asset Management - generated at 2018-04-27 12:07:41 Thematic & Impact Investing 360 in 1 minute The case for SDGs as a catalyst: a reality check The United Nations’ (UN) comprehensive policy agenda for global long- term sustainability objectives (from gender equality to climate change), which is also known as its Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs, or Global Goals, may be one of the hottest terms in the ESG space.
    [Show full text]
  • Stranded Assets, Fossilised Revenues
    24 April 2014 Energy transition & climate change Stranded assets, fossilised revenues USD28trn of fossil-fuel revenues at risk in a 450-ppm world A 450-ppm world would threaten high-cost, high-carbon revenues Under a global climate deal consistent with a 2°C world, we estimate that the fossil-fuel industry would stand to lose USD28trn (in constant 2012 US dollars) of gross revenues over the next two decades, compared with business as usual. We derive this number by comparing the IEA’s base-case scenario for global energy trends out to 2035 and its scenario consistent with a 2°C world. The oil industry accounts for USD19.3trn of this, gas USD4trn, and coal USD4.9trn. The revenues most at risk would be concentrated in the high-cost, high-carbon sources of production. For the oil industry, this means, above all, deepwater, oil-sands, and shale-oil plays. But business as usual also has big risks for fossil-fuel companies The oil industry’s increasingly unsustainable dynamics – as manifested, for example, by ongoing capex reductions amid record-high oil prices – mean that stranded-asset risk exists even under business-as-usual conditions: high oil prices will encourage the shift away from oil towards renewables (whose costs are falling) while also incentivising greater energy efficiency. Engagement now key for stress-testing climate scenarios Ongoing negotiations in preparation for COP-21 next year are only likely to increase the pressure for greater transparency on carbon risk. Against this backdrop, we think investors need more details on the breakdown of oil companies’ assets by project type and on their capital-allocation processes in order to be able to better assess carbon risk and cost/revenue risk.
    [Show full text]
  • Carbon Compass $) Climate Change & Natural Capital
    .Q&A Report Carbon Compass $) Climate Change & Natural Capital 18 March 2016 Q. Is carbon footprinting on sovereign bonds possible? In November 2015, we published our Carbon Compass: Investor guide to carbon footprinting, in which we answered the most commonly-asked questions about carbon metrics at the portfolio level, in a context of increased voluntary initiatives (Montreal Pledge, Portfolio Decarbonisation Coalition) and regulatory pressures (e.g. Article 173 of the French Law on Energy Transition) As investors apply these methodologies, the question of footprinting on other asset classes is often raised, in particular sovereign bonds. Data providers such as South Pole and Trucost (in partnership with the Global Footprint Network and Beyond Ratings, respectively) released their methodologies at end-2015 and in January 2016. So is carbon footprinting on sovereign bonds possible, and what should investors know about this? A. Yes, it is; different asset class, same questions Yes, carbon footprinting on sovereign bonds is possible and may help foster ESG integration across asset classes. The same questions that apply to carbon footprinting on equity also apply to sovereign bonds.: are Main author investors focusing on “risk” or “contribution to climate change”? Should Julie Raynaud investors only include the government’s direct emissions or total emissions ESG Research at the country level? What metric should be used to normalise? What jraynaud @keplercheuvreux.com about double-counting? We explore these questions in a simple and user- +44 (0) 207 621 5186 friendly way to complement our previous insights and findings in this post- COP context. ESG research team Biographies at the end of the report IMPORTANT.
    [Show full text]
  • A Deep-Dive Into the Ocean
    360 Report $CompanySectorName$ $StoryName$$ReportType$ Blue Economy Screener Thematic & Impact Investing 31 March 2017 A deep-dive into the Ocean What’s it all about? Our in-depth assessment of the decline in ocean health shows that the tides are turning. The sectors that most jeopardise the resources provided by the sea, such as shipping, wild-catch fisheries, and offshore oil & gas, face mounting pressure to shift their model towards a more sustainable Main author trajectory, which results in a new wave of risks and opportunities, paving Samuel Mary the way to a potential recovery. Our blue economy framework looks to ESG Research identify the best practices among fast-growing ocean-related industries [email protected] and likely winners and losers across our universe. Offshore-wind, +44 207 621 5190 aquaculture and ship-equipment plays are well placed to provide resource- efficient and climate-friendly solutions, while emerging themes such as ESG research team the reduction of plastic pollution are gathering steam. Biographies at the end of the report IMPORTANT. Please refer to the last page of this report for keplercheuvreux.com “Important disclosures” and analyst(s) certifications. This research is the product of Kepler Cheuvreux, which is authorised and regulated by the Autorité des Marché Financiers in France. Thematic & Impact Investing 360 in 1 minute A sea change for the ocean The swift rise of innovation-driven and renewable resource-based sectors, such as offshore wind and aquaculture, coincides with a policy clampdown on the negative environmental impact of ocean-based industries, such as seaborne trade and wild-catch fisheries.
    [Show full text]
  • European Corporate Survey Next Is ESG Communication
    March 2014 European Corporate Survey Next is ESG Communication SUPER IRO HAS SUSTAINABLE PLANS IMPORTANT. Please refer to the last page of this report for “Important disclosures” and analyst certification(s) keplercheuvreux.com IRO Survey No2 About Kepler Cheuvreux Kepler Cheuvreux is a leading independent European financial services company specialised in advisory services and intermediation. The company has four business lines: equities, debt & credit, investment solutions and corporate finance. Headquartered in Paris, the group employs around 500 staff. This multi-local company is also present in Amsterdam, Boston, Frankfurt, Geneva, London, Madrid, Milan, New York, San Francisco, Stockholm, Vienna and Zurich. www.keplercheuvreux.com About our investor access services Our ambition as Europe’s leading local broker is to satisfy both investor and corporate needs by developing a full range of access products and services. Our salespeople, analysts and corporate access teams work together to provide solutions that best meet all requirements. Kepler Cheuvreux has a strong track record in organising ESG meetings and events between European corporates and investors. Our unique PRI sell-side commitment translates into more than 8,000 ESG OoOs completed over the last seven years, building up a unique experience in ensuring an integrated dialogue between investors and corporates. About the Author Bénédicte Thibord has been Head of Corporate Access and Client Management at CA Cheuvreux since 2008 and Group Head of Corporate Access & Marketing at Kepler Cheuvreux since 2013, in charge of corporate/expert access, roadshows and conference activities. Previously, she worked for ten years at PricewaterhouseCoopers as a banks/insurance auditor, then as a capital markets consultant.
    [Show full text]
  • Kepler Chevreux 2019 0 0.Pdf
    THE POWER OF BEAUTY Jean-Paul AGON Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Autumn Conference – Kepler Cheuvreux September 12th, 2019 KEY INDICATORS 2018 SALES #1 BEAUTY PLAYER 26.9 BILLION € WORLDWIDE OPERATING MARGIN NET PROFIT1 18.3% 4 BILLION € NET CASH FLOW2 EARNINGS PER SHARE3 3.9 BILLION € 7.08 € MARKET CAPITALIZATION4 141 BILLION € 1Net profit, excluding non-recurring items after non-controlling interests. 2Net cash flow = Gross cash flow + changes in working capital - capital expenditure. 3Diluted earnings per share, based on net profit, excluding non-recurring items, after non-controlling interests. 4Based on 2 September 2019 closing price of €251.20 THE POWER OF A DYNAMIC MARKET 6% 5% 4% 3% 1 2% ≃ +5.5% 1% H1 2019 0% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1L’Oréal worldwide beauty market estimates, excluding razors, soaps and toothpastes. Half-Year 2019 provisional estimates, at constant exchange rates. FIRST-HALF L ’ O R É A L I S OUTPERFORMING THE BEAUTY MARKET H1 2019 2 ≃+5.5%1 +7.3% BEAUTY MARKET 1L’Oréal worldwide beauty market estimates, excluding razors, soaps and toothpastes. Half-Year 2019 provisional estimates, at constant exchange rates. 2H1-2019 like-for-like sales growth CONSOLIDATED OPERATING OPERATING GROUP SALES PROFIT MARGIN +7.3%1 +12.1% 19.5% A STRONG F I RS T H A L F +7.2% +23.2% EARNINGS NET PER SHARE2 CASH FLOW 1H1-2019 like-for-like sales growth 2Diluted earnings per share, excluding non-recurring items, attributable to owners of the company STRATEGIC CHOICE N°1 WIN ON THE 6 MOST POWERFUL GROWTH ENGINES TO OUTPERFORM THE MARKET GROWTH ENGINE 1 ASIA PACIFIC ASIA PACIFIC STRONG POTENTIAL EVERYWHERE + 24% 2 CHINA +39% 2 ≃ 1 +10% INDIA VIETNAM 2 +18% +16% 2 INDONESIA PHILIPPINES MARKET 2 +22% +16% 2 H1 2019 1L’Oréal Half-Year 2019 provisional estimates, excluding razors, soaps and toothpastes, at constant exchange rates.
    [Show full text]
  • Kepler-Cheuvreux-Report-July-2019 1
    F Equity Research Full report Q&A Report 8834 Switz erland $BloombergCode$ QA_CR HBM Healthcare Buy Switzerland | Pharma & biotech | MCAP CHF 1.3bn Target Price CHF 220.00 (151.00) Current Price CHF 184.80 Up/downside 19.0% Change in TP 45.7% 22 July 2019 Change in EPS up nm 19E / up nm 20E Q. Does the current discount to NAV hamper the potential of HBM’s shares? HBM’s shares are up 20% since the beginning of the year, beating the performance of the US biotech market over the same period (+12%). This great performance relies on an improvement of the NAV, but most importantly on the gradual decline in HBM’s share price discount to NAV. The current discount is therefore limited to 8%, well below its three-year average (16%). One might wonder whether this trend is sustainable. A. No, there is enough room for further appreciation Pharma trends and dynamics remain solid, and HBM has demonstrated its ability to identify the value of promising biotechs early on. HBM has a well- balanced portfolio of public and private companies, and a successful long- term exit strategy (IPO or trade sale). Furthermore, shareholders benefit from an attractive return (a dividend in the range of 5% per year and share Kepler Cheuvreux and the issuer buyback), leading to sustainable performance. As a result, HBM’s shares have agreed that Kepler Cheuvreux posted one of the best five-year performances among its peers. Despite will produce and disseminate this, the current share price discount to NAV is still 8%, while some investment research on the said laggards trade at a premium.
    [Show full text]
  • Forest & Land Degradation
    360 Report $Com panySectorName$ $StoryName$$ReportT ype$ Forest & land degradation Thematic & Impact Investing | Natural Capital 11 March 2016 Integrating landscape into investments What’s it all about? Alarming trends in global land use have been highlighted by a string of recent environmental disasters, such as Indonesia’s forest fires on palm oil plantations. This has added weight to the growing consensus that more should be done to rein in investment risks related to natural capital Main author degradation. Sustainable management of landscapes could help align the Samuel Mary economy with the 1.5-2°C goal heralded at the landmark COP21 summit, ESG Research while alleviating threats fuelled by deforestation, food insecurity, [email protected] biodiversity loss and water scarcity. We lay out a framework to navigate +44 (0) 207 621 5190 the underlying challenges for companies in the most sensitive sectors (consumer, extractives, etc.), which leads us to spot value-creation ESG research team opportunities for over 40 stocks and new impact investing vehicles. Biographies at the end of the report IMPORTANT. Please refer to the last page of this report for keplercheuvreux.com “Important disclosures” and analyst(s) certifications. This research is the product of Kepler Cheuvreux, which is authorised and regulated by the Autorité des Marché Financiers in France. Thematic & Impact Investing 360 in 1 minute Spotlight on a neglected trillion-dollar time bomb: land use About 33% of the world’s arable land is jeopardised by land degradation, triggering economic losses of USD6.3-10.6trn each year. Unsustainable trends in land use amid a deadly recent string of land-related catastrophes (BHP Billiton/Vale’s dam burst in Brazil’s worst-ever environmental disaster, Indonesia’s most severe forest fires on palm oil plantations) have led to an unprecedented recognition that the time has come to step up efforts to rein in investment risks related to natural capital degradation.
    [Show full text]
  • Kepler Cheuvreux 190315
    Equity Research 3.80 Germany 360_CR Sponsored Research S&T Buy (Buy) Germany | IT software & services | Mcap EUR 153.6m Target Price EUR 5.60 Current Price EUR 3.55 Up/downside 57.7% Change in TP 47.37% 19 March 2015 Change in EPS 4.5% 2014E none Quality growth ahead Baptiste de Leudeville [email protected] +41 22 994 1573 Based on our updated valuation, S&T still offers plenty of catch-up Bernd Laux potential, even after the recent share price rally (+40% since October [email protected] 2014). At 10x 2015E earnings and a 50% average discount to peers, the +49 69 756 96 141 stock remains attractive. Given the all-time high backlog and potential Market data for further strong value creation, we reiterate our Buy rating and lift our Market cap (EURm) 154 TP from EUR3.8 to EUR5.6 based on a less conservative scenario. Free float 66% No. of shares outstanding (m) 43 Getting more ambitious Avg. daily trading volume('000) 31 We have significantly raised our sales growth forecasts for the smart grid YTD abs performance 10.2% 52-week high (EUR) 3.75 division to better reflect the huge potential ahead (+16% sales over CAGR 52-week low (EUR) 2.54 2014-20E vs. 9% previously). The deployment of smart grids – driven by EU FY to 31/12 (EUR) 2014E 2015E 2016E regulation requiring 80% of EU 27 utility customers to have a smart meter Sales (m) 380.0 467.7 503.3 by 2020 – should begin to gain traction as of next year with the bulk of EBITDA adj (m) 19.5 26.4 32.8 installations taking place in 2017-19.
    [Show full text]
  • Chargeurs Charging Ahead
    This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Grégory JETTE - Rothschild Martin Maurel - generated at 2021-05-26 07:42:27 Release date: 26 May 2021 Market data as of: 25 May 2021 Chargeurs France | Support services MCap: EUR487.5m Buy (Not Rated) Charging ahead Target Price: EUR30.00 (none) What’s it all about? Current Price: EUR20.88 Chargeurs is an industrial conglomerate with world-leading positions in niche Up/downside: 43.7% markets that are worth EUR0.5-1.0bn a year (e.g. self-adhesive films for surface Change in TP: none protection, interlinings and technical textiles, premium wool trading). It is firmly Change in Adj. EPS: NM+ 21E/NM+ 22E positioned at the high end of the markets in which it operates thanks to a premium offering and sustained capex/R&D investments. In just two years, Chargeurs has become a global leader in the fast-growing market of museum services, while its ability to rapidly adapt its industrial assets to mass produce face masks at the start of the pandemic led to record-high results in 2020. The ramp-up of these new Baptiste de Leudeville ventures represents the cornerstone of Chargeurs’ ambitious growth plan (implied Equity Research Analyst 14% EBIT CAGR 2020-25E including its active acquisition strategy). The company’s +33 1 53 65 36 55 [email protected] historical activities are also key, with the expected recovery of underlying end- markets post pandemic. We initiate coverage with a Buy and a TP of EUR30. Support services research team Biographies at the end of this document Kepler Cheuvreux and the issuer have agreed that Kepler Cheuvreux will produce and disseminate investment research on the said issuer as a service to the issuer.
    [Show full text]