Construction & real estate / 10 May 2012

Hysan Development 14 HK | HYSNY US

Target price: HK$41.00  HK$41.00 Up/downside: +23.9% Share price (10 May): HK$33.10

substantial proportion of the on a 30% discount to our end-2012E Is a break- property to be leased. NAV of HK$58.60. A risk to our call would be a sharp decline in retail through near Some positive signs have emerged spending in Hong Kong. for office space. We note some of the for leasing major office-space deals that have  How we differ been signed recently (see page 2). We are not as bearish as many Hysan Place There have also been some major brokers on the outlook for the deals in the investment market as grade-A office sector. We are also office space? well, with 50 Connaught Road being more optimistic about the outlook sold recently for a record price for a for Hysan’s achieved rent in its Hong Kong office building of retail-property Jonas Kan, CFA (852) 2848 4439 HK$4.88bn, and some eight floors portfolio. [email protected] of SHK Properties’ (16 HK, HK$89.25, 3) KCC Building in Kwai Forecast revisions (%) Alex Ye Year to 31 Dec 12E 13E 14E (852) 2848 4471 Chung were sold to an investment Revenue change 0.0 0.0 0.0 [email protected] fund for HK$1.3bn, according to the Net-profit change 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hong Kong Economic Times. EPS change 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: Daiwa forecasts  One office floor in Hysan Place Latest developments bode well for was leased out at a record level the prospects of leasing out the rest Share price performance  A breakthrough in the leasing of Hysan Place’s office space. We (HK$) (% ) think there is pent-up demand for 44 140 of the office space may be office spaces from industries such as 38 120 coming retailing and legal, and that there is 32 100  Reiterate Buy rating also new demand from corporations 26 80 from China, and probably some 20 60 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12  What's new other countries as well. (LHS) Wuliangye, a major alcohol brand in Relative to HSI (RHS) China, has leased one floor of Hysan The way office demand works is that 12-month range 23.00-39.10 Place (16,000 sq ft) at about once the inertia and wait-and-see Market cap (US$bn) 4.50 HK$75/sq ft, according to the Hong sentiment has been removed, Average daily turnover (US$m) 7.38 Kong Economic Times. demand could re-emerge rather Shares outstanding (m) 1,056 quickly, as many of the corporations Major shareholder Estate Company  What's the impact that have been waiting for the best (40.9%) Should reduce concerns about the time to sign may decide not to wait leasing of Hysan Place office space. any longer. Given this, the rents Financial summary (HK$) While there has been concern in the achieved in many of the recent deals Year to 31 Dec 12E 13E 14E Revenue (m) 2,193 2,607 2,822 market that Hysan Place has signed are not low (the reported achieved Operating profit (m) 1,806 2,203 2,410 up only one tenant (KPMG), we rent for Hysan Place is above our think this concern will ease if the Net profit (m) 1,591 1,900 2,091 forecast of HK$60/sq ft and would Core EPS 1.507 1.800 1.980 report is correct. be a new record for Causeway Bay) EPS change (%) 21.5 19.4 10.0 and the leases are spread over Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 21.6 5.8 7.2 We note that Hysan Place has only several buildings and districts. PER (x) 22.0 18.4 16.7 15 floors. With KPMG taking five Dividend yield (%) 3.0 3.9 4.7 floors, and one floor potentially  What we recommend DPS 1.000 1.300 1.550 being taken by Wuliangye, the We continue to see Hysan PBR (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7 building would be about 40% leased, Development (Hysan) as an EV/EBITDA (x) 20.5 16.4 14.7 with nine floors left to fill. As such, undervalued asset play, and ROE (%) 3.2 3.8 4.2 probably only a handful of sizeable reiterate our Buy (1) rating and six- Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts tenants would be sufficient for a month target price of HK$41, based

Important disclosures, including any required research certifications, are provided on the last two pages of this report. Construction & real estate / Hong Kong 14 HK | HYSNY US 10 May 2012

ƒ Hysan: price to NAV ƒ Hysan: PBR (Disc)/prem (% ) PBR (x ) Current NAV disc: -41.9% 1.4 10% 0% 1.2 Current PBR: 0.72x (10% ) 1.0 (20% ) +1SD: -26.1% +1SD: 0.78x (30% ) 0.8 (40% ) Average since 0.6 (50% ) 1991: -42.4% (60% ) 0.4 Average since -1SD: -58.7% (70% ) 1990: 0.62x -1SD: 0.47x 0.2 (80% ) (90% ) 0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Thomson Reuters, Daiwa estimate Source: Thomson Reuters, Daiwa

ƒ Major office leasing deals in recent weeks Rental Area Date Tenants Industry Building District HK$/sq ft (sq ft) Remarks Early May Wuliangye Liquor Hysan Place Causeway Bay 75 10,000-20,000 The second office tenant in the building following KPMG Early May Lenovo Technology Lincoln House, Taikoo Place Quarry Bay 50 10,000-20,000 The whole 21st floor Early May Harvest Capital Real estate investment Two Exchange Square Central 120 10,000-20,000 Has rented the whole 31st floor 23/F, Manchester United has leased the top floor (28/F) at about Early May Meridian Capital Investment 50 Connaught Road Central 135 5,000-10,000 HK$130/sq ft in 2011 Late April Quam Investment Aon China Building Central 60 10,000-20,000 18/F & 19/F Late April Harvest Capital Real estate investment Two Exchange Square Central 120 5,000-10,000 31/F 23/F & 24/F, a new type of tenant for the Central-Admiralty office Late April Neo Derm Retail (beauty) Two Pacific Place Admiralty 120 20,000-50,000 market Early April A fund house Investment LHT Tower Central 85 5,000-10,000 Relocating out of One IFC Late March HK Exchange Exchange and Clearing Two Exchange Square Central 100 10,000-20,000 6/F Source: HK Economic Journal, HK Economic Time, SCMP

ƒ Major en-bloc transactions of offices in recent years Transacted Total GFA price Average price Date of Building (sq ft) (HK$bn) (HK$/sq ft) transaction Buyer 8 floors in Tower B, Commerce Centre (KCC), Kwai Chung (葵涌九龍貿易中心 ) * 208,000 1.3 6,500 May 12 An investment fund 50 Connaught Road, Central (中環干諾道中 50 號) 175,000 4.88 27,800 May 12 Agricultural Bank of China 18 Kowloon East, Kowloon Bay (九龍灣東匯 18 號) 348,600 2.51 7,200 Mar 12 China Construction Bank PCCW Tower, Quarry Bay (鰂魚涌電訊盈科中心 )** 620,000 4.388 7,077 Nov 12 Grosvenor (UK real estate fund) Infinitus Plaza, Sheung Wan (上環維德廣場 ) 390,000 4.35 11,154 Jul 12 Lee Kum Kee Family and related party Nexxus Building, Central (中環盈置大廈 ) 260,000 3.6 13,846 Sep 12 Vietnamese investor Source: HKET *A major recent deal but not an en-bloc transaction. Sold by SHKP (16 HK, HK$89.25, Hold [3]). *Swire sold 50% stake of the property to Grosvenor. HK$4.388bn is the translated price for the whole building

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Financial summary

ƒ Key assumptions Year to 31 Dec 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E Completed investment properties (m sq.ft) 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.4 4.4 4.4 Blended average office rent (on GFA) 23.7 29.2 30.3 31.3 34.6 36.4 38.4 41.4 (HK$/sq.ft.) Blended average retail rent (on GFA) 49.3 59.2 61.2 66.2 66.0 69.8 76.7 84.8 (HK$/sq.ft.) Blended average residential rent (on GFA) 27.7 30.8 30.1 31.1 32.3 32.9 33.3 33.9 (HK$/sq.ft.) Pay-out ratio (%) 54 59 64 68 65 66 72 78

ƒ Profit and loss (HK$m) Year to 31 Dec 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E Property rental - office 584 720 747 770 820 953 1,066 1,148 Property rental - retail 522 626 648 700 789 928 1,225 1,354 Others 262 292 285 294 313 312 316 321 Total revenue 1,368 1,638 1,680 1,764 1,922 2,193 2,607 2,822 Other income 98 63 38 49 90 92 94 98 COGS (208) (217) (235) (250) (262) (284) (295) (301) SG&A (106) (134) (133) (140) (173) (187) (194) (202) Other op. expenses (4) (2) (7) (8) (8) (8) (8) (8) Operating profit 1,148 1,348 1,343 1,415 1,569 1,806 2,203 2,410 Net-interest inc./(exp.) (175) (155) (131) (117) (122) (121) (120) (118) Assoc/forex/extraord./others 447 326 161 133 170 262 227 248 Pre-tax profit 1,420 1,519 1,373 1,431 1,617 1,947 2,311 2,539 Tax (185) (264) (189) (201) (226) (273) (324) (355) Min. int./pref. div./others (77) (54) (71) (82) (81) (84) (87) (93) Net profit (reported) 1,158 1,201 1,113 1,148 1,310 1,591 1,900 2,091 Net profit (adjusted) 1,158 1,201 1,113 1,148 1,310 1,591 1,900 2,091 EPS (reported) (HK$) 1.101 1.156 1.064 1.091 1.240 1.507 1.800 1.980 EPS (adjusted) (HK$) 1.101 1.156 1.064 1.091 1.240 1.507 1.800 1.980 EPS (adjusted fully-diluted) (HK$) 1.101 1.156 1.064 1.091 1.240 1.507 1.800 1.980 DPS (HK$) 0.600 0.680 0.680 0.740 0.800 1.000 1.300 1.550 EBIT 1,148 1,348 1,343 1,415 1,569 1,806 2,203 2,410 EBITDA 1,152 1,350 1,350 1,423 1,577 1,814 2,211 2,418

ƒ Cash flow (HK$m) Year to 31 Dec 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E Profit before tax 1,420 1,519 1,373 1,431 1,617 1,947 2,311 2,539 Depreciation and amortisation 4 2 7 8 8 8 8 8 Tax paid (140) (183) (469) (161) (181) (204) (245) (291) Change in working capital 31 64 24 72 5 81 79 41 Other operational CF items (271) (223) (55) (51) (82) (141) (107) (129) Cash flow from operations 1,044 1,179 880 1,299 1,367 1,691 2,046 2,168 Capex 0 0 (242) (871) (980) (880) (380) (80) Net (acquisitions)/disposals 172 (759) 959 (274) (551) 233 309 277 Other investing CF items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cash flow from investing 172 (759) 717 (1,145) (1,531) (647) (71) 197 Change in debt 0 765 179 632 0 0 0 0 Net share issues/(repurchases) (498) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 Dividends paid (497) (641) (642) (733) (790) (853) (1,096) (1,422) Other financing CF items (162) (140) (127) (109) (154) (135) (130) (128) Cash flow from financing (1,157) (14) (589) (209) (944) (988) (1,226) (1,550) Forex effect/others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in cash 59 406 1,008 (55) (1,108) 56 749 815 Free cash flow 1,044 1,179 638 428 387 811 1,666 2,088

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

- 3 - Construction & real estate / Hong Kong 14 HK | HYSNY US 10 May 2012

Financial summary continued …

ƒ Balance sheet (HK$m) As at 31 Dec 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E Cash & short-term investment 484 1,015 1,984 1,993 2,961 3,017 3,017 3,017 Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Accounts receivable 66 94 83 98 134 120 143 155 Other current assets 686 1,331 489 320 507 876 829 825 Total current assets 1,236 2,440 2,556 2,411 3,602 4,013 3,989 3,997 Fixed assets 196 203 396 429 530 560 590 620 Goodwill & intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other non-current assets 39,458 38,893 41,090 45,714 55,236 56,625 56,837 57,061 Total assets 40,890 41,536 44,042 48,554 59,368 61,199 61,416 61,677 Short-term debt 0 550 400 650 1,507 1,507 758 758 Accounts payable 278 320 314 433 532 541 643 696 Other current liabilities 761 836 499 552 589 1,297 1,604 1,769 Total current liabilities 1,039 1,706 1,213 1,635 2,628 3,345 3,005 3,223 Long-term debt 2,861 3,201 3,491 3,937 5,156 5,156 5,156 4,341 Other non-current liabilities 4,142 3,919 606 665 840 1,332 1,270 1,573 Total liabilities 8,042 8,826 5,310 6,237 8,624 9,833 9,430 9,137 Share capital 5,187 5,206 5,253 5,267 5,299 5,299 5,299 5,299 Reserves/R.E./others 26,465 26,263 31,963 35,410 43,454 43,989 44,517 44,971 Shareholders' equity 31,652 31,469 37,216 40,677 48,753 49,288 49,816 50,270 Minority interests 1,196 1,241 1,516 1,640 1,991 2,077 2,170 2,270 Total equity & liabilities 40,890 41,536 44,042 48,554 59,368 61,199 61,416 61,677 EV 37,376 36,629 35,537 36,034 37,224 37,101 36,314 35,455 Net debt/(cash) 2,377 2,736 1,907 2,594 3,702 3,646 2,897 2,082 BVPS (HK$) 30.094 30.278 35.571 38.674 46.168 46.674 47.174 47.604

ƒ Key ratios (%) Year to 31 Dec 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E Sales (YoY) 7.9 19.7 2.6 5.0 9.0 14.1 18.9 8.3 EBITDA (YoY) 8.3 17.2 0.0 5.4 10.8 15.0 21.9 9.3 Operating profit (YoY) 8.3 17.4 (0.4) 5.4 10.9 15.1 22.0 9.4 Net profit (YoY) 53.4 3.7 (7.3) 3.1 14.1 21.5 19.4 10.0 EPS (YoY) 53.7 5.0 (7.9) 2.6 13.6 21.5 19.4 10.0 Gross-profit margin 84.8 86.8 86.0 85.8 86.4 87.1 88.7 89.3 EBITDA margin 84.2 82.4 80.4 80.7 82.0 82.7 84.8 85.7 Operating-profit margin 83.9 82.3 79.9 80.2 81.6 82.4 84.5 85.4 ROAE 3.9 3.8 3.2 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.8 4.2 ROAA 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.4 ROCE 3.4 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.8 4.2 ROIC 3.0 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.8 3.4 3.8 Net debt to equity 7.5 8.7 5.1 6.4 7.6 7.4 5.8 4.1 Effective tax rate 13.0 17.4 13.8 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 Accounts receivable (days) 30.0 17.8 19.2 18.7 22.0 21.2 18.4 19.2 Payables (days) 70.8 66.6 68.9 77.3 91.6 89.3 82.8 86.6 Net interest cover (x) 6.6 8.7 10.3 12.1 12.9 15.0 18.4 20.4 Net dividend payout 54.5 58.8 63.9 67.8 64.5 66.4 72.2 78.3 Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

ƒ Company profile Hysan Development (Hysan) was founded by the Lee family in 1970 to redevelop the Lee family’s properties and was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 1981. Hysan currently owns an investment-property portfolio in Hong Kong comprising 4.4m sq ft (4.2m sq ft on an attributable basis), of which 3.7m sq ft is at Causeway Bay. In addition, the group owns 0.69m sq ft of luxury residential properties in Hong Kong’s Mid-level area and has a 24.7% stake in Grand Gateway 66, one of the largest and most prominent mixed commercial-property complexes in Shanghai.

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Research Analyst Conflicts For updates on “Research Analyst Conflicts” please visit BlueMatrix disclosure link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action. The principal research analysts who prepared this report have no financial interest in securities of the issuers covered in the report, are not (nor are any members of their household) an officer, director or advisory board member of the issuer(s) covered in the report, and are not aware of any material relevant conflict of interest involving the analyst or DCMA, and did not receive any compensation from the issuer during the past 12 months except as noted: no exceptions.

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The following explains the rating system in the report as compared to relevant local indices, based on the beliefs of the author of the report. "1": the security could outperform the local index by more than 15% over the next six months. "2": the security is expected to outperform the local index by 5-15% over the next six months. "3": the security is expected to perform within 5% of the local index (better or worse) over the next six months. "4": the security is expected to underperform the local index by 5-15% over the next six months. "5": the security could underperform the local index by more than 15% over the next six months.

Additional information may be available upon request.

Japan - additional notification items pursuant to Article 37 of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law (This Notification is only applicable where report is distributed by Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd.)

If you decide to enter into a business arrangement with us based on the information described in materials presented along with this document, we ask you to pay close attention to the following items. • In addition to the purchase price of a financial instrument, we will collect a trading commission* for each transaction as agreed beforehand with you. Since commissions may be included in the purchase price or may not be charged for certain transactions, we recommend that you confirm the commission for each transaction. • In some cases, we may also charge a maximum of ¥ 2 million (including tax) per year as a standing proxy fee for our deposit of your securities, if you are a non-resident of Japan. • For derivative and margin transactions etc., we may require collateral or margin requirements in accordance with an agreement made beforehand with you. Ordinarily in such cases, the amount of the transaction will be in excess of the required collateral or margin requirements. • There is a risk that you will incur losses on your transactions due to changes in the market price of financial instruments based on fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates, stock prices, real estate prices, commodity prices, and others. In addition, depending on the content of the transaction, the loss could exceed the amount of the collateral or margin requirements. • There may be a difference between bid price etc. and ask price etc. of OTC derivatives handled by us. • Before engaging in any trading, please thoroughly confirm accounting and tax treatments regarding your trading in financial instruments with such experts as certified public accountants. *The amount of the trading commission cannot be stated here in advance because it will be determined between our company and you based on current market conditions and the content of each transaction etc.

When making an actual transaction, please be sure to carefully read the materials presented to you prior to the execution of agreement, and to take responsibility for your own decisions regarding the signing of the agreement with us.

Corporate Name: Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. Financial instruments firm: chief of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kin-sho) No.108 Memberships: Japan Securities Dealers Association, Financial Futures Association of Japan Japan Securities Investment Advisers Association Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association

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