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The Transmission of Monetary Policy in Canada Bank of Canada The Transmission of Monetary Policy in Canada Bank of Canada 1996 893-49-90-554 ISBN 0-660-16444-2 Printed in Canada on recycled paper The Transmission of Monetary Policy in Canada Bank of Canada Uncertainty and the transmission of monetary policy in Canada..........................5 by Gordon Thiessen The implementation of monetary policy in Canada..............................................19 by Bruce Montador Bank of Canada cash management: The main techniques for implementing monetary policy..............................................................................35 by Kevin Clinton Buy-back techniques in the conduct of monetary policy ......................................51 by Kevin Clinton and Kevin Fettig From monetary policy instruments to administered interests rates: The transmission mechanism in Canada - A summary.........................................61 by Kevin Clinton and Donna Howard The use of indicators and of the monetary conditions index in Canada ..............67 by Charles Freedman The role of monetary conditions and the monetary conditions index in the conduct of policy...................................................................................................81 by Charles Freedman Empirical evidence on the strength of the monetary transmission mechanism in Canada: An aggregate approach ..................................................87 by Pierre Duguay The role of economic projections in Canadian monetary policy formulation....109 by Pierre Duguay and Stephen Poloz Bank of Canada operations in financial markets ...............................................121 by Tim Noël INTRODUCTION In response to an invitation from Glendon College to deliver the 1995 HERMES lecture, Governor Thiessen decided to use the occasion to set out the Bank of Can- ada’s view of the transmission mechanism for monetary policy. The transmission mechanism is the chain of developments that begins with the Bank’s actions in adjusting the supply of settlement balances to financial institutions, traces the effects of these actions on financial markets, and works through the resulting changes in spending, production, employment and prices. The widespread interest in the subject matter of the HERMES lecture inspired this volume. Although over the past few years researchers at the Bank have published a number of papers on various stages in the transmission mechanism, this is the first time they have been gathered together in an effort to make the subject more acces- sible. The focus here is primarily on the early part of the transmission mechanism – that is, on the path between the actions of the Bank of Canada and financial mar- ket outcomes, since this is less researched and less widely understood than the links between financial market outcomes and spending and inflation. In the HERMES lecture, the first paper in this volume, Governor Thiessen describes all the stages in the transmission mechanism, with an emphasis on the uncertainty at each stage and on the initiatives taken by the Bank to lessen this uncertainty by increasing the transparency of its objectives and the way it imple- ments policy. Bruce Montador provides an overview of the various instruments through which the Bank of Canada implements monetary policy. More detailed discus- sions of these instruments are presented in the article by Kevin Clinton on cash management techniques and in the article by Clinton and Fettig on buyback tech- niques. Clinton and Howard examine the effect of eliminating reserve require- ments on the linkages between the one-day interest rate, over which the Bank has the most influence, and other rates of interest. The first article by Charles Freedman sets out the rationale for use of the mon- etary conditions index (MCI), a construct that combines interest rate and exchange rate movements. Freedman’s second article analyses the way in which strategic and tactical elements enter into the Bank’s decisions regarding the MCI path. This is followed by Pierre Duguay’s assessment of the empirical evidence on the links from interest rates and exchange rates to total spending in Canada and from total spending and the exchange rate to inflation. In another article, Duguay and Poloz discuss the role of economic projections in the formulation of Canadian monetary policy. The final text, by Tim Noël, describes some important changes that the Bank of Canada has recently made in the way it implements monetary policy and intervenes in financial markets. This volume details the arrangements in place in the first half of the 1990s. Over the next couple of years there will be further important changes in the way monetary policy is implemented as a result of the expected introduction in the first half of 1997 of the Large Value Transfer System (a system for transferring large value payments currently under construction by the Canadian Payments Associa- tion). Articles describing and analysing these and other developments affecting the transmission mechanism will appear periodically in the Bank of Canada Review. Interested readers may also wish to refer to the Bank of Canada’s forth- coming conference volume, Money Markets and Central Bank Operations. Uncertainty and the transmission of monetary policy in Canada by Gordon G. Thiessen Just over seven years ago, my predecessor, John the various kinds of uncertainty that impinge on Crow, delivered the Hanson Memorial Lecture at the economy and on the policy process. One type the University of Alberta. In it, he discussed a of uncertainty arises because of the possible number of issues relating to the conduct of Cana- occurrence of events that are largely unexpected. dian monetary policy, including the goal of mon- Such shocks can be international or domestic in etary policy, the transmission mechanism, the origin. A recent example was the rise in U.S. use of monetary aggregates as policy guides, long-term interest rates through the first half of financial market uncertainty, and the role of the 1994. Other sources of shocks can be events that exchange rate. Seven years later, all of these mat- are certain to occur, but whose precise nature or ters remain topical. outcome is as yet unknown, for example, a What I want to do today is to focus on the budget, or the upcoming referendum in Quebec. inter-relationships of two of these themes – A second type of uncertainty arises because uncertainty and the transmission of monetary the private sector may be unsure about the policy to the economy. How do the various types longer-run objectives of economic policies. To of uncertainty influence the behaviour of eco- complicate the issue further, there can be an nomic actors? And how does uncertainty affect interaction of these two types of uncertainty the transmission of monetary policy through the when the markets are unsure about how to inter- economy? In the first part of this lecture I will pret the response of the authorities to a shock. Do outline the Bank of Canada’s view of the trans- the actions of the central bank reflect a change in mission mechanism, paying considerable atten- its long-run objectives or simply a response to tion to the role of uncertainty. In the second part, the shock with no change in objectives? One of I will set out the various ways in which the Bank the reasons why markets may be unsure about has tried to reduce uncertainty. how to interpret the central bank actions is that Before launching into the main part of the they may view the shock differently than the cen- lecture, I want to spend a few minutes discussing tral bank does. In particular, there may be differ- ences of view as to whether the shock is likely to The HERMES-Glendon Lecture, delivered at York University’s be long-lived or short-lived and as to its implica- Glendon College, Toronto, Ontario, 30 March 1995. tions for the economy. 6 THE TRANSMISSION OF MONETARY POLICY IN CANADA In deciding on its policy actions, the central markets, works through changes in spending, bank is in turn faced with an uncertainty about production and employment, and ends with an how the financial community and the public will effect on the price level or, more specifically, the respond to its pronouncements and actions. Will rate of inflation in the price level. Economists the response be the same as in the past, or will call this chain of developments the “transmission economic relationships be different on this occa- mechanism.” sion? For example, how will aggregate demand The instrument that the central bank has at be affected by central bank actions leading to its disposal in taking monetary policy actions is changes in interest rates and the exchange rate? its control over the issuance of a crucial financial And how will inflation and inflation expectations asset – typically referred to in the economics lit- react to these actions? erature as “base money.” Base money, which is What can the central bank do to reduce composed of bank notes issued by the central uncertainty? First, it can try to reduce the uncer- bank and deposits at the central bank held by tainty of the public and of financial markets financial institutions, is important because it pro- about its responses to the various shocks. It can vides the ultimate form of liquidity in the finan- do this by making clear the longer-run goal of cial system. Financial institutions hold such a monetary policy, the shorter-term operational tar- liquid instrument – one that involves no risk of gets at which it is aiming in taking policy default and no delay in obtaining value – in order actions, and its own interpretation of economic to settle among themselves the net flows from developments. Moreover, by committing itself to payments that take place in the economy every a longer-term goal and sticking to it, as well as day. by lessening uncertainty about its own responses Fundamentally, monetary policy is about the to shocks, the central bank may be able to lessen pace of monetary expansion. The rate at which the effect of the shocks on private sector behav- the central bank allows base money to expand iour.
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