A Fit for the Future Programme for Government

Future Generations Commissioner for Wales

May 2021 A Brief for Members of the Senedd XXX

A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Contents

Summary 03

Skills 07

Financing Decarbonisation of Housing 14

Culture 21

The National Nature Service 29

Universal Basic Income 35

Business as a force for good 41

www.futuregenerations.wales A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Summary

Summary

I welcome the increased focus of long- term thinking across all main party manifestoes in this year’s Senedd election. An increase of 75% in the use of the word ‘future’ across their manifestoes (compared to 2016) is a clear commitment across all political parties to tackle the climate and nature emergencies, to improve the quality of Welsh homes, to provide skills and job opportunities for young people, to improve digital connectivity and access to nature, regenerate our towns and cities and tackle mental health. We have seen genuine attempts to set out future focused policy and to bring forward new innovative ideas such as a basic income highlighted by three of the main political parties as a potential new solution to the unfinished business of tackling poverty.

“…we will govern in a way that seeks out consensus and will take on board new and progressive ideas – from wherever they come. Ideas that can improve and enhance what we discuss in this chamber. From coronavirus to clean air; from universal basic income to ensuring young people are not priced out of Welsh-speaking communities. This will be a government that listens and will work collaboratively with others where it is in the interests of Wales to do so. My offer to work with others extends beyond this Chamber. To our partners in the public, private and third sectors across Wales. To communities and to people across Wales.” Mark Drakeford MS, 2021

www.futuregenerations.wales 03 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Summary

Heralded as the nation at the heart of the But ‘building back better is not enough’ Industrial Revolution – it is now time for Covid has exposed and exacerbated Wales to mark out its leadership not only persistent inequalities, poor digital access through ‘Green Revolution’ but through a and significant challenges for youth new approach to well-being economics, unemployment. It is also set against a and by showcasing a Government which backdrop of climate and nature focuses on long term joined up policy emergencies etc. making. Wales can continue to demonstrate that small nations can be at 63% of those newly unemployed in the UK the forefront to deliver the most in 2020-21 are under 25. Approximately progressive ideas. 26,802 young people were unemployed in Wales as of Dec 2020. Housing decarbonisation, nature Nearly half of adults in Wales report restoration and key infrastructure projects having a longstanding illness, with 21% in green industries provide significant reporting two or more illnesses. opportunities for job creation but also to restore nature to meet our carbon 14% of the Welsh adult population have emissions targets and to regenerate experienced four or more adverse communities. A recovery focused childhood events and during the Programme for Government also provides pandemic child abuse referrals have risen the opportunity for reimagining and by nearly 80% (NSPCC). diversifying sectors and priorities. As of February 2021, waiting lists had hit Retraining, reskilling for green record levels with 549,353 awaiting transitioning are essential areas for Welsh treatment or surgery – a 19% rise in a Government and others to address. year.

Biodiversity is in decline. The 2019 State of Nature report found that 1 in 6 species are at risk of extinction.

Public Health Wales reported that only 50% of people rated their current happiness level as high (Nov 2020).

Recorded hate crimes increased by 2% in 2019-20.

61% of adults reported they were overweight or obese, including 25% obese.

In 2008, 18% of the population was over 65. By 2033 this is expected to rise to almost 26%.

www.futuregenerations.wales 04 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Summary

Whilst the pandemic has presented a The Government must show: particular type of public health challenge this must not mask the ongoing and how its programme will prepare Wales enduring public health challenges for future shocks and long-term associated with poverty, environmental challenges and seize future factors, poor quality housing and social opportunities, isolation. So whilst this plan does not how cross cutting issues will be focus on ‘meeting the backlog of understood and tackled more treatment’, it focuses on addressing the effectively across Government, underlying conditions which have seen how it will maximise the well-being some communities in Wales fare worst value of each policy and programme, not just in health outcomes during the working beyond department budgets pandemic but continually over decades, and siloes, before COVID-19 was even heard of. how it will build on the good work already started in collaborating with This plan sets out what I believe are the key partners and; necessary policy actions which will take how it will bring new voices to the us towards a prosperous, green and table. equal Wales. It also sets out opportunities to utilise and value the skills and experiences already in our communities; from volunteers, businesses, artists and creatives who are keen to add their voices and expertise to the recovery efforts and renew a better Wales.

The Government has set out what it will do in its manifesto but it must now be clear on ‘how’ it will achieve it in line with the Well-being of Future Generations Act.

A prosperous, green and equal recovery would aim to deliver good quality livelihoods whilst supporting rapid decarbonisation and improving biodiversity in Wales. This would mean investing in industries and sectors that help us meet our zero-carbon targets, increase equality and improve our well-being. It also relies on having the right skills and training in place You can find the Future Generations to help people take advantage of these Commissioner for Wales' Manifesto for opportunities. the Future here.

www.futuregenerations.wales 05 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Summary

Key Priority Actions Ensure people have the means and pathways to keep learning through life (including equality of digital access to information and knowledge). This will Welsh Government should... help respond to the predicted economic restructuring, the effects of Ensure that investment seeks to diversify automation, climate and nature key sectors for the future by targeting emergencies and increase equality. skills programmes in future focused industries, towards women, disabled Deliver a care led recovery - Increase people, Black, Asian and minority ethnic the care workforce, pay all those in the (BAME) people and those furthest from care workforce the real living wage and the labour market. provide training and recognised qualifications. A larger proportion of Prioritise investment and job creation in a the population should be employed in green and care led recovery. It must re- care (Sweden and Denmark employ direct skills and employment programmes 10% of the population in the industry). to support workers into sectors for a In Wales, only around 3.8% of the prosperous, green and equal recovery. By population work in social care and investing in industries for recovery, such 0.4% in childcare. Implementation of a as housing decarbonisation, transport, new commissioning of care framework care, a National Nature Service, Welsh should be a priority to support better Government should create labour pay and conditions in social care demand, support new and existing sector. employees to reskill and upskill, alongside the creation of long-term, fair and decent Invest and increase capacity of work. employability programmes. My analysis suggests rapid upscaling and Set a long-term investment plan to expansion of skills and employability finance decarbonisation of homes. Use programmes will be needed to meet the momentum and investment in the the likely skills and employability Optimised Retrofit Programme to create a demand. long-term plan, with shared commitment between Governments, housing Apply well-being economics in all associations and other players, providing policy decisions, funding arrangements clarity about funding, anticipated job and interactions with the public, private creation and skills pipelines. and voluntary sector - show your workings on how your spend will Build the power of culture and creativity maximise well-being in line with the into Covid recovery approach. national well-being goals. Create a National Nature Service. A new Harness the potential of business to and future focused approach, providing deliver on a green and just recovery by opportunities around skills, jobs and the addressing the lack of organization of restoration of Wales’ natural environment, business around the Well-being of and better aligning the existing Future Generations Act, and building mechanisms in place. on the Economic Contract. www.futuregenerations.wales 06 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Skills

A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Skills

07 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Skills

Skills Funding in adult education from UK The Challenges Ahead Government has fallen and in 2019, Wales recorded lowest ever rates of adult learning. Over the last decade, the The economy is expected to go through number of people studying for a second significant change as a result of the degree has fallen from 36,000 to 13,500 pandemic, a permanent restructuring – and the number of people enrolled in based on population behaviour shifts Further Education has fallen by 43%. globally, across the UK and here in Wales. Early estimates at UK level People also face personal financial and suggest 500,000 people could become practical barriers to upskilling and “structurally unemployed” as a result – retraining. Loans are not enough for where the demand for their skills is no some on the lowest incomes to return to longer there and their industries are education and training. Childcare and drastically different. For example, caring for elderly relatives affects aviation and hospitality are two such women, in particular. Additional industries that will take some time to structural barriers exist for disabled recover and may never be the same people and Black, Asian and minority again. ethnic (BAME) communities trying to enter or move up the job market. At the same time, heavy carbon industries are increasingly required to The pandemic has impacted on Black, Asian and minority ethnic people and adapt to meet global climate emission women more than other population targets. Wales has experienced groups. Nationally, the unemployment industrial shifts in the past that has rate reached 8.5% for BAME workers scarred generations. A ‘just transition’ compared to 4.5% for white workers. for the workers, their families and their communities to the industries of the 16-24 year olds have seen a decline in future is required to ensure long-term employment of around 12,000 workers well-being. (-6.7%). This 6.7% decline is accounted for by a decline in employment among The Chief Economist for Wales female workers, with no significant estimates unemployment in Wales change among males. The funding level driven by the COVID-19 crisis could for upskilling and reskilling people is peak at 114,000 people in 2021 insufficient to cope with this. following the end of the furlough scheme in October - a doubling of Current skills and employability pre-crisis level at 55,000. programmes are not future-focused. Apprenticeships, education, training and In February 2021, 175,000 people investment are often modelled on old were still furloughed in Wales. This industrial trends in Wales that will need number has remained above completely refocusing for a green 100,000 for the duration of the recovery model. We should not be crisis. A proportion of those who continuing to prepare young people for remain on furlough may never return jobs that will not exist nor have any to their previous jobs. demand in five, ten, fifteen years' time.

www.futuregenerations.wales 08 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Skills

In 2020/21, Welsh Government invested £40m in the 'COVID Commitment to Employability and Skills'. Given current predictions on increase unemployment rates it is likely that programmes in Wales would need to increase by at least 50% in order to meet demand.

Skills 1. Investing in railway construction and engineering could create over 5,000 jobs Addressing the Skills Gap in public transport and decarbonising how we travel. Only 20-30% current employees are female; between 11-15% Skills provision should be targeted are non-white ethnicity. Last year, there towards industries which will help Wales were 150 annual apprentice starts in rail to meet its climate emission targets; engineering; 0% were female. The skills respond to the nature emergency; gap is a challenge, due to scale of new provide skills in digital, creativity and jobs required. It takes at least 3 years to communication; level up inequalities train a railway engineer via between population groups and apprenticeship schemes. Relevant between rural and urban areas. To date qualifications require 200- 300 hours this has not been the case. As a training. consequence, Wales is missing significant opportunities to provide decent, fair, sustainable roles in industries that will remain and continue 2. Investing in nature restoration, to grow into the generations to come. agriculture, forestry, flood defence and related trades would create decent jobs Sectors such as construction, heating; for current and future generations in electrical installation; manufacturing; industries that help us to meet our engineering; the foundational economy carbon emission targets. Currently, only (such as roles in childcare and social around 25% of the workforce is female care); and nature restoration are shown and 0.76% of non-white ethnicity. to have significant job creation potential Apprentice levels are currently very low and have wider benefits for a at 50-120 per year. The number of people prosperous, green and equal recovery. enrolled in relevant education courses has also almost halved in the last 6 years But there is currently a significant deficit (4,500 compared to 8,065 previously). in the skills pipeline for these industries - without rapid action to reskill and train our population, there are not enough people with the right skills to fill these jobs at the moment. As well as a deficit in numbers coming through, the skills pipelines and the current workforce within these industries are predominantly white males. For example:

www.futuregenerations.wales 09 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Skills

3. Investing in social housing 4. Investing in the care industry is construction, off-site manufacturing and greener and more equal than some housing retrofit (including insulation, ‘shovel-ready’ projects, producing windows/doors, boiler/heating) could 30% less greenhouse gases than the create over 15,000 direct jobs over the same level of investment in next two years. Retrofitting homes would construction, according to the have a significant impact on our carbon Women’s Budget Group. Investment emission targets, fuel poverty and in could create 713,000 jobs UK-wide - responding to the health crisis. Living in 2.7 times as many as the same damp, unsuitable housing has significant investment in construction. This could effects on respiratory health – a leading also narrow the gender employment risk factor of COVID-19. Currently in this gap – creating 6.3 times as many jobs industry: for women in care and 10% more for men than in construction industries. There is a political consensus that 50% more can also be recouped by investing in housing retrofit is the the Treasury in direct and indirect tax right way to go but without rapid revenue from investment in care than action on increasing and diversifying in construction. the skills pipeline for the jobs which will be created we risk whitewashed “There has been lots of talk of green gender segregated green recovery. Only 27% of the workforce is female jobs and a green recovery and the Welsh and around 5% non-white ethnicity, Government has some good ambitions, 3% of apprenticeship starts in general but the pathway between someone out construction were female. Current of work and a green job remains fraught apprenticeships starts in the retrofit with challenges, particularly for people sector are low - between 20-40 per from groups under-represented in the year. sectors of the future.

In social housing construction an “Until the route to green employment is increase in workforce size of 22% is cleared, communities will struggle to estimated to be required – in addition to predicted growth in off-site trust in big green promises. This means manufacturing. There appears to be a getting a much better handle on where significant skills shortfall in insulation, jobs are going to be created, how the heating and retrofit. But with relevant skills and training can be guaranteed projects and investment, accessed, and how future green workers people could be upskilled relatively are going to sustain their incomes while quickly as qualifications are not training and upskilling. Many workers, necessarily needed. particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds remain trapped in an economy of low wages, insecure work, multiple jobs, high rent and out of reach house prices.”

Alex Chapman, Senior Researcher at the New Economics Foundation www.futuregenerations.wales 10 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Skills

Skills Support young people who have Manifesto Pledges been affected by both Brexit and the pandemic by developing a new Young Persons Guarantee, giving The Labour Manifesto pledges which everyone under 25 the offer of work, have been considered within this education, training, or self- section include: employment.

Take forward our Economic Resilience and Reconstruction Mission for Wales and promote good Implementation quality skills in the areas where we know the economy will grow. We will In order to implement these pledges, strengthen Regional Skills Welsh Government must address Partnerships to ensure supply meets the changing economic needs of Wales.

Create 125,000 all-age The potential economic apprenticeships during the next restructuring and employment Senedd term. We will work with crisis arising from the impacts of unions and employers to expand the COVID-19 and the climate and use of shared and degree nature emergencies. apprenticeships to give people more flexible routes into training and a career. The gap between current skills within the workforce; the In the face of a global pandemic, the numbers coming through dedication of the social care apprenticeships, training and workforce has inspired a nation. education pipeline and the Welsh Labour will deliver the Real anticipated skills and employment Living Wage for all our social care need for a prosperous, green and staff. equal recovery. Implement and fund commitments in The lack of diversity in these Race Equality Action Plan as well as implement targets around Gender sectors. Budgeting so that all decisions by a Welsh Government are seen through The decline in adult education a gender lens, in addition to using and lifelong learning. the network of Disabled People’s Employment Champions to narrow The barriers (such as caring the employability gap. responsibilities, income) to enable people to access and participate Create a Race Disparity Unit and in skills, learning and Equality Data Unit to inform decision employability programmes. making.

www.futuregenerations.wales 11 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Skills

Skills Priority Actions

The New Programme for Government should: Invest in a Care-Led Recovery

Investing in the care industry would Invest in key infrastructure projects in increase gender equality both within green industries and nature restoration the care workforce and the wider Invest and increase opportunities for population. Increasing the number of retraining, reskilling and transitioning to people working in care would create changing industries economic stimulus. Countries such as Invest in a Care-led Recovery Sweden and Denmark have Direct efforts towards an equal recovery successful models with at least 10% of the employed population working in care – in Wales, around 3.8% of the Invest in key infrastructure projects population work in social care and in green industries and nature only 0.4% in childcare. In Denmark, restoration. there are also examples of integrating care roles with other responsibilities, According to analysis undertaken in providing qualifications. This has partnership with Wales TUC and the New shown to improve patient experience Economics Foundation (2020/21) this and means workers find it easier to could create at least 45,000 direct jobs transition to higher paid roles and and over 60,000 indirect jobs in the next other industries. It also has the two years. Growth in these sectors potential to provide a much needed should be associated with fair and decent focus on the wider determinants of work opportunities for those impacted by health and shift towards a economic restructuring now and for preventative approach. future generations. The pandemic has exposed a care Invest and increase opportunities for crisis. In order to attract more people retraining, reskilling and to a caring profession, carers should transitioning to changing industries. be paid the Real Living Wage. Currently, 56% of the social care As well as the need to invest in growing workforce in Wales earn below the livelihoods in these sectors, people also Real Living Wage. need support to retrain, reskill and Taking this approach across the UK transition to new sectors, if we are to could create 2m jobs and increase tackle inequalities and create a more overall employment by 5% and prosperous Wales. People face barriers decrease gender employment gap by like incompatibility with income support, 4%. lack of basic income, lack of childcare and lack of time to retrain and reskill.

www.futuregenerations.wales 12 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Skills

Direct efforts towards an equal The Gender Equality review called for recovery. “changes to our workplaces, more effective challenge to persistent Build on the goals, actions, timelines stereotypes and a world class and and outcomes outlined in the Race childcare service that delivers for Equality Action plan acknowledging children while supporting parents to the importance of understanding the work.” The review identified three way in which characteristics, such as main areas to focus on when gender, race or class, can interact and addressing inequalities in the produce unique and often multiple employment sector: experiences and disadvantage in specific situations (sometimes - embracing different ways of referred to as intersectionality). working- including flexible and agile working; - expanding gender pay gap reporting Set challenging targets for to include SMEs and; recruitment, retention and progression - tackling discrimination in of women, Black, Asian and minority employment which disproportionately ethnic groups and disabled people; affects BAME and disabled women. ensuring that they are visible and represented at all levels of Childcare was also identified as a key organisations and within theme in the review. “Access to good apprenticeships and traineeships. quality and affordable childcare was regularly highlighted as a key barrier “A green recovery also has to be a fair and to women entering, remaining and inclusive recovery. We all agree we need to progressing in work. There are build back better, which is why getting a multiple factors affected by the disproportionate childcare clear picture of our starting point and the responsibilities shouldered by women, skills gap is extremely important. such as health, poverty and women’s ability to enter and progress in work.” “Now we need to work with employers and government on workforce planning, so that This is a live issue for Government as any investment to upskill our workforce and jobs and skills pathways in future decarbonise our homes also results in good focused industries such as IT, quality work and a much more diverse engineering, construction and land construction sector. We won’t build back management are heavily dominated better unless we plan the details in by white males. Without significant intervention, existing inequality is partnership, especially when it comes to likely to be exacerbated as demand diversity.” for skills in these industries grows.

Shavanah Taj, General Secretary, Wales TUC

www.futuregenerations.wales 13 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Financing Decarbonisation of Homes

A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Financing Decarbonisation of Homes

14 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Financing Decarbonisation of Homes

Financing Decarbonisation of Homes The Challenges Ahead

I have recently worked with external experts and key stakeholders to estimate Overcoming levels of fuel poverty that the total funding needed to decarbonise remain stubbornly high (12%) sits at the homes in Wales, identify funding gaps heart of Wales’ decarbonisation and and suggest approaches to addressing social justice objectives, and the these gaps. This section includes our decarbonisation of homes must be seen emerging findings and as a fundamental part of a green and recommendations. just recovery from the pandemic in Wales. In 2020 I highlighted that In 2019, the Decarbonisation of Homes developing an economic stimulus in Wales Advisory Group argued that package which leads to job creation and ensuring Wales delivers on its climate supports the decarbonisation of homes, change pledges requires a cross party should be a priority for Welsh strategic commitment to the complete Government as part of a Green decarbonisation of the housing stock by Recovery to the pandemic. 2050; with significant inroads to be made in social housing and homes in fuel Managed well, a retrofit programme poverty by 2030. These commitments could be a gamechanger for the Welsh recognise that over 80% of Wales’ economy - not only meeting current housing will likely still be decarbonisation and fuel poverty standing in 2050. objectives whilst reducing needless energy costs, but creating new To date, emissions from Wales’ housing industries, skills and jobs, based on stock have reduced by more than 40% local supply chains and supporting the since 1990. However, three quarters of foundational economy. this improvement has come from a cleaner electricity supply, rather than Scaling up decarbonisation of homes improvements to homes themselves. has to be prioritised if the Government is serious about meeting their legally The average home in Wales remains an binding climate change targets. A Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) national programme would also create rating of “D”, and the deployment of low significant economic as well as carbon heat remains less than 5%. environmental benefits: a Welsh housing decarbonisation programme would While the Welsh Housing Quality create £19.32bn in additional GDP and Standard, Arbed and Nest programs a £3.54bn of net tax profit, 26,500 new have made significant inroads in jobs by 2030, would lead to £8.3bn of reducing it, 155,000 (12%) of Welsh energy bill savings and create £4.4bn in homes remain in fuel poverty - 20% of health and environmental benefits by the Private Rented Sector, 11% of owner 2040. occupiers and 9% of social housing tenants live in fuel poverty.

www.futuregenerations.wales 15 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Financing Decarbonisation of Homes

Financing Decarbonisation of Homes Manifesto Pledges

The Labour Manifesto pledges which have been considered within this section include:

We will continue to improve existing homes, helping us tackle fuel poverty, create much needed jobs, training opportunities, and supply chains.

New Jobs for Wales: Create thousands of jobs in a low-carbon house building revolution.

Support young people who have been affected by both Brexit and the pandemic by developing a new Young Persons Guarantee, giving everyone under 25 the offer of work, education, training, or self- employment.

Take forward our Economic Resilience and Reconstruction Mission for Wales and promote good quality skills in the areas where we know the economy will grow. We will strengthen Regional Skills Partnerships to ensure supply meets the changing economic needs of Wales.

Create 125,000 all-age apprenticeships during the next Senedd term. We will work with unions and employers to expand the use of shared and degree apprenticeships to give people more flexible routes into training and a career.

www.futuregenerations.wales 16 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Financing Decarbonisation of Homes

Financing Decarbonisation of Homes

Implementation

In order to implement these pledges, Strengthen Wales’ ambition to Welsh Government must decarbonise homes by setting Minimum Energy Efficiency Show leadership in bringing all Standards (MEES) across all sectors together in a shared mission. stock.

Welsh Government should play a key Currently Government is encouraging leadership and co-ordination role with the social housing sector to work support and collaboration required from towards the decarbonisation targets UK Government, local authorities, set out in the ‘Better Homes, Better housing associations as well as education Wales, Better World’ report. However, and private sectors to ensure concerted 1.1 million (or 70%) of Wales’ housing action across social housing, homes in stock falls under the Owner Occupied fuel poverty and those in the private or Private Rented sectors which rented and owner-occupied sectors. currently lack (or have very weak) targets, and given the huge challenge Target the worst homes first in of decarbonising homes we need to order to maximise the benefits of ensure delivery at scale. If cross- reducing fuel poverty and improving sector concerted action is going to achieve these targets they need to be decarbonisation. statutory and enforced through minimum energy efficiency standards Many Welsh homes remain in a dire state (MEES). and thousands of households live in ‘severe fuel poverty‘ requiring over 20% of Recognise that the scale of the their income to maintain a satisfactory heating regime. Any decarbonisation challenge means new institutions programme must target these worst are needed and there will be new performing homes first as a matter of roles for existing organisations. urgency. As the scale of the challenges and Address the skills gaps which exist opportunities of the decarbonisation for retrofit jobs. of homes are realised, there will be a need for new roles and approaches. We suggest a key role for the Currently there is a risk that Wales will Development Bank of Wales (DBW) in lose the benefits of job creation because the coordination of funding for the there are not enough people who are private rented and owner-occupied qualified to undertake retrofit work. This sectors, and the development of a needs to be addressed urgently if we are Wales Energy Service Company to maximise the benefits of investment in (WESCO) to manage energy housing decarbonisation. performance contract financing for the social housing sector. www.futuregenerations.wales 17 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Financing Decarbonisation of Homes

Financing Decarbonisation of Homes Priority Actions

The new Programme for Government Double fuel-poverty funding to should: eradicate fuel poverty by 2030 and seize the advantage of job creation Put in place a longer-term plan for and generation of local wealth. funding the decarbonisation of homes. Work with UK Government to secure Welsh Government should aim to additional funds. eradicate fuel poverty in the next Double fuel-poverty funding to decade, through doubling fuel poverty eradicate poverty by 2030. funding to £73m a year and Adopt a Retrofit Plus approach supplementing with low-income grants Set an ambitious Minimum Energy from UK Government national Efficiency Standard of EPC 'C' or infrastructure funding. They should equivalent decarbonisation target ensure that the long-term funding pathway reflects the phasing needed Establish a central role for the which will prioritise funding and support Development Bank of Wales to for decarbonising social housing and facilitate lending of around £1bn/year. homes in fuel poverty first, considering Urgently develop a skills pipeline for a what further regulation may be needed Welsh Retrofit workforce for homes in the private rented and Explore the establishment of a new owner-occupied sectors. Wales Energy Service Company Build on the work of the Optimised Adopt a Retrofit Plus approach - Retrofit Programme broadening the Retrofit programme to support community involvement and neighbourhood regeneration

Investment at scale in Welsh homes Put in place a longer-term plan for should look beyond new boilers and funding the decarbonisation of towards innovative solutions to improve homes. communities. Opportunities should be sought to expand the decarbonisation Building on the work of key organisations programmes by greening communities, such as Welsh School of Architecture creating spaces for nature local food and Community Housing Cymru, Welsh growing and culture. This should be Government should develop a long-term linked to the National Nature Service and pathway to the decarbonisation of support for creative professionals homes, providing clarity about funding working with public services and arrangements, anticipated job creation communities outlined elsewhere in this and skills pipelines. report.

www.futuregenerations.wales 18 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Financing Decarbonisation of Homes

Set an ambitious Minimum Energy Establish a central role for the Efficiency Standard (MEES) of EPC Development Bank of Wales (DBW) “C” or equivalent decarbonisation or a similar coordinating actor to target for all homes no later than facilitate lending of around 2030. £1bn/year.

Based on learning from the Optimised This would need to be paired with an Retrofit Programme Welsh Government appropriate, area-based advice and should determine an ambitious Minimum retrofit procurement service to offer a Energy Efficiency Standard (MEES) ‘one-stop-shop’ to households. decarbonisation target for the social housing sector then legislate for this Explore the establishment of a new target if needed. A similar target should Wales Energy Service Company be agreed for all homes in the Private (WESCO) to coordinate and Rented sector along with a ban on the support decarbonisation in the installation of new fossil fuel heating for social housing sector. all homes no later than 2030. This would combine grants and loans Build on the work of the Optimised into a single performance contract with Retrofit Programme to develop a guaranteed savings repaid on the energy cost model and ‘building renovation bill. passports’ for the entire Welsh housing stock. Urgently develop a skills pipeline for a Welsh Retrofit workforce. Properties will need to be improved, as far as possible, considering current Investing in, and developing a long-term solutions available and the likely costs of pathway, to decarbonise all homes in the work. Building renovation passports Wales will provide long-term will provide a more detailed commitment and security to enable understanding of relative costs and the development of skills pathways which scale of work needed for different types will support new jobs that could be of homes. created in our foundational economy. Proposals such as the Retrofit Academy Work with UK Government to for Wales should be supported and secure additional funds. scaled up across Wales.

(including the additional £2.6bn infrastructure investment and £1bn allocation of the Shared Prosperity Fund) to tackle decarbonisation of low-income homes and fuel poverty in Wales.

www.futuregenerations.wales 19 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Financing Decarbonisation of Homes

Creating skills and jobs for the future through investing in a national retrofit programme.

Unemployment in Wales, driven by the COVID-19 crisis, could double peaking at around 114,000 people in 2021 (compared to pre-crisis levels of 55,000).

Investment in key infrastructure projects in green industries and nature restoration could create at least 45,000 direct jobs and over 60,000 indirect jobs in the next two years: an estimated 2730 jobs in retrofit energy assessors, 4260 jobs in retrofit insulation of housing, 2810 jobs in social housing construction.

A Welsh housing decarbonisation programme alone could create 26,500 new jobs in Wales by 2030.

However, there is a significant gap both in terms of numbers qualified to undertake this work and programmes to train and upskill a future workforce, as current numbers of apprenticeships / training opportunities are far lower than what is needed.

Investing in, and developing a long-term pathway, to decarbonise all homes in Wales will provide long-term commitment and security to enable development of skills pathways which will support new jobs that could be created in our foundational economy. Proposals such as the Retrofit Academy for Walesshould be supported and scaled up across Wales.

Welsh Government should use the momentum and investment in the Optimised Retrofit Programme to create a pipeline of skills and employability opportunities to support a national housing decarbonisation programme.

“We support the report and its “A mix of funding options is essential. It is recommendations for tackling not only the amount of funding that is decarbonisation of the housing stock.” important but the certainty of the funding criteria and availability in order to achieve Development Bank of Wales long term planning and sustainability.”

“We agree and would welcome the creation Finance Director, Housing Association of a Wales Energy Service Company and endorse the energy performance contracts approach especially given the recent work by the Green Finance Institute.”

Energy Saving Trust & Housing Associations

www.futuregenerations.wales 20 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Culture

A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Culture

21 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Culture

Culture Introduction

Participation in sports, arts and culture But in parallel the cultural and creative can bring huge benefits to individuals professionals have been amongst the and communities – in boosting skills, hardest hit during the pandemic, falling confidence, self-esteem and aspiration. through the gaps on access to the This should not be reserved to those on furlough scheme and experiencing the a certain income or in certain worst effects of the precarious nature of communities. Therefore, social inclusion their work. and community engagement should form key elements in cultural The Welsh Government should be organisation’s plans for the future. With commended for stepping in with a the traumatic effects of the Covid-19 Freelancers funding scheme attached to pandemic impacting so severely on a freelancers pledge – a programme individuals, families and communities, designed to pair creative professionals art, sport and cultural organisations will with public services to use their skills to need to build on the work they have regenerate town and city centres, to done during the pandemic and lead a creatively engage the public, to support concerted effort to collaborate more social prescribing and much more. We effectively in order to assist with now have an opportunity to build on this recovery processes by maximising the approach – a UK first - and embed benefits of cultural participation and culture throughout the policies and especially in our most deprived programmes of Welsh Government and communities. the rest of the Welsh public sector, as the Well-being of Future Generations During the pandemic, cultural Act requires. organisations and practitioners experienced a significant surge in usage While policy initiatives launched by of their digital resources and services, governments during the COVID-19 and in the arts many people turned to or pandemic were needed and welcomed, rediscovered the value of creative there is a need to answer broader activity to help cope with the difficulties questions of public policy and creative of lockdown. It is clear that during the practice. most difficult times, digital interaction with culture and being creative are The Well-being of Future Generations vitally important as a coping Act places unique importance on mechanisms, a ways of retaining a cultural well-being as an equal sense of normality and maintaining a dimension of the statutory definition of degree of connection with others in the the sustainable development principle. community, and a meaningful and This principle is promoted by all public beneficial activities to pursue. bodies and applies to all Welsh Government Ministers.

www.futuregenerations.wales 22 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Culture

Culture Data from the October to December 2020 National Quarterly Survey for The Challenges Ahead Wales found that around 12% people report being lonely in Wales.

The 2019/20 National Survey showed older people (65-74 and 75+) least In June 2020, the Creative Industries likely to have attended or participated Federation warned that the UK faces a in arts, culture or heritage activity at “cultural catastrophe”. According to least 3 times a year. analysis it commissioned from Oxford Economics, Wales is projected to lose 18% of pensioners in Wales were living 26% (15,000) of its creative jobs and in relative income poverty between see a 10% (£100 million) drop in 2017 and 2020. creative industries GVA. As of February 2021, waiting lists had The Senedd’s Culture, Welsh Language hit record levels with 549,353 awaiting and Communications Committee in treatment or surgery – a 19% rise in a 2018 said it ‘wants to see the start of year. conversations between the Welsh Government and arts organisations to In October 2020, the Welsh Youth set a long-term policy direction which is Parliament found that more than 60% of sustainable, inclusive and accessible’. children and young people experience There are 38,000 fewer freelancers difficult emotions or mental health working in creative occupations since issues at least once a week in Wales. the start of 2020 across the UK. The 2050 Welsh language strategy 13% of all businesses in the UK are recognizes that education and training located in the immediate vicinity of a is the main means of creating Welsh high street and many more are found in speakers and of reaching the target of city and town centres that depend one million speakers. It sets a target for upon the shops and services present. increasing the proportion of learners leaving statutory education who can In 2020, the number of empty shops on speak Welsh to 70% (25,000) by 2050. UK high streets has risen to its highest level in six years. Research by estate agent Savills suggests the UK may “The arts and creative industries should be already have 40% excess retail space. at the core of government policy to revive and re-invigorate in the new post Covid-19 According to the 2020 Future of Jobs world. At times of crisis and hardship, report by the World Economic Forum, access to the arts for all should be central there will be an increasing demand for to government policy. But it is clear that the skills related to Innovation and arts can only evolve with continued Creativity between now and 2025. government investment and adequate financial resourcing, which is more important now than ever.”

Literature Wales

www.futuregenerations.wales 23 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Culture

Culture Manifesto Pledges

The Labour Manifesto pledges which have been considered within this section include:

Work with key partners in TV, film With local partners, we will develop and in education to establish a masterplans for towns and high Creative Skills Body to cultivate streets to coordinate and focus home-grown excellence particularly economic opportunities and services, among our young people. We will so more people work and spend time also consider establishing a Creative in these vibrant centres. We will Industry Research and Development empower communities to have a Fund so that Wales is always at the greater stake in local regeneration. forefront of skills and technology. We will introduce an all-Wales Support young people who have framework to roll out social been affected by both Brexit and the prescribing to tackle isolation. pandemic by developing a new Young Persons Guarantee, giving Fund NHS services to recover and everyone under 25 the offer of work, provide the delayed treatments education, training, or self- people are waiting for. employment.

Create 125,000 all-age apprenticeships during the next Senedd term. We will work with unions and employers to expand the use of shared and degree apprenticeships to give people more flexible routes into training and a career.

www.futuregenerations.wales 24 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Culture

Culture Adopt and act on the Implementation recommendations of ‘An Anti-Racist Wales: The Race Equality Action Plan for Wales, which include: In order to implement these pledges, Welsh Government must To work with public bodies to fully recognise their responsibility for setting the historic narrative, Ensure the values and opportunities promoting and delivering a of a culture recovery is embedded balanced, authentic and across all government programmes. decolonised account of the past – one that recognises both Look beyond the health sector and historical injustices and the embrace the power of culture, positive impact of ethnic minority physical activity and access to nature communities. to support patients and keep people well by investing in prevention To support all parts of the society approaches and social prescribing*. in Wales to embrace and celebrates its diverse cultural *Social prescribing is a way of meeting heritage while understanding, the social, emotional and practical needs and recognising the right to, of people through services in the freedom of cultural expression. voluntary and community sector, rather than relying on health and social care Put long term sustainable funding services to provide a solution. commitments in place to support cultural development, community Address the skills gap across all projects and the creative industries culture sector to ensure the across Wales. workforce is diverse, accessible, sustainable and that all barriers are removed. “Our current thinking on social justice concurs perfectly with Baroness Kay Ensure creativity is central to the Andrews’ report on culture and poverty COVID-19 education recovery. published in 2014 which concluded that we should realise the importance of the arts and culture in combating poverty and promoting social justice in Wales. The benefits of access to and participation in all forms of art and culture should be available to all, and that particular efforts are needed to ensure that those in the most disadvantaged communities can enjoy and benefit from these opportunities”.

Pedr ap Llwyd, Chief Executive and National Librarian, National Library of Wales

www.futuregenerations.wales 25 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Culture

Culture Priority Actions

The New Programme for Government should: Build culture into the COVID Recovery. Build culture into COVID Recovery. This approach will ensure Publish a revised national Culture and mainstreaming culture across all Creativity Strategy. policy decisions. Launch and incentivise the roll out of the Freelancers and Public Bodies Pledge. Welsh Government could learn from Apply a culture-based approach for city, New Zealand, Greater Manchester town and community regeneration. and London who have adopted A sector led approach to digital equity innovative recovery approaches like and inclusion within the cultural CARE (Creative Activation, Creative workforce to ensure its respresentative Re-imagination and Creative Exchange). It requires Government to and diverse. re-think how culture is accessed, who Support young people to experience is involved and how culture can be and work within the creative and cultural used to support public services and industry. tackle future trends. This work must Support culture led intergenerational be led in partnership. activity to tackle loneliness and isolation, Welsh language promotion, mental Publish a revised national Culture health and community cohesion. and Creativity strategy. Establish an Active and Creative Programme to support children and This should be developed in young people. partnership with the private, voluntary, public and cultural sector and include Identify opportunities to promote and a renewed vision for cultural use the Welsh language within its participation, representation and COVID Recovery approach. agency. It should also set out how As Wales opens up consider a 'Seat Out sectors can work together to tackle to Help Out' Scheme. future trends such as climate and Establish permanent opportunities to nature emergencies. give people a voice in planning the future of the culture and creative sector. Adopt a sector led approach to Recognise and enhance the network of digital equity and inclusion cultural venues throughout Wales as within the cultural workforce to spaces, assets and resources to support ensure it’s representative and cultural and community well-being. diverse.

www.futuregenerations.wales 26 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Culture

Launch and incentivise the roll Apply a culture-based approach out of the Freelancers and Public for city and town and community Bodies Pledge. regeneration.

This would encourage creative Building on examples such as solutions and insight to tackle societal Ty Pawb, Wrexham and Urban issues including town and city centre Village, Swansea to re- regeneration, loneliness and isolation, purpose and redevelop space. mental health and community This work requires employing cohesion. The Freelancers and Public artists and creatives to help Bodies Pledge seeks to partner develop urban renewal cultural freelancers with public bodies programmes, filling streets, to support the creative delivery and shop windows etc with development of public services across creative activity to attract Wales. workers, visitors and residents back to the high street. Support culture led Protecting and promoting civic intergenerational activity to spaces such as arts and tackle loneliness and isolation, sports venues, religious, faith Welsh language promotion, and community centres, mental health and community museums, galleries, parks and cohesion. libraries for voluntary creative activity is vital to ensure Establish an Active and Creative people can participate in the Programme to support children cultural life of their and young people. communities. Partnerships with housing associations could be formed Work with freelancers, private sector, to enhance regeneration voluntary organisations, national activity linked to cultural and sport bodies and decarbonisation by building in religious, belief and community green infrastructure and groups to collaborate alongside creative thinking and ideas education providers, ensuring children into community regeneration. and young people are supported to Opportunities around develop and explore their creativity, investing in decarbonisation physical and mental health and well- should be considered beyond being in the post-pandemic recovery just the installation of new period. This work should build on the boilers and be thought of as a importance of creativity in the New holistic approach to Curriculum. developing cleaner greener creative and active communities.

www.futuregenerations.wales 27 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Culture

Support young people to Identify opportunities to experience and work within the promote and use the Welsh creative and cultural industry. language within its COVID Recovery approach. Offer 16–24-year-olds micro- grants to develop creative Work with schools, colleges, enterprises alongside their universities, families, youth services, employment or study. businesses, freelancers, voluntary Build on the success of the organisations, public bodies, national Culture Ambition programme cultural bodies and communities to which supports young people ensure the Welsh language is to gain experience and skills in integrated across all policy the cultural sector. development and delivery. This should Invest in cultural social be particularly considered alongside prescribing programmes to establishing an active and creative support NHS treatment programme to support children and backlog and prevent new young people and in addressing skills patients entering the system. and jobs for the future. Establish a School Cultural Ambassador Programme As Wales opens up consider a within primary and secondary ‘Seat Out to Help Out’ Scheme. schools. Adopt a Real-Life Fast Track, A demand stimulus scheme to embedding creatives in policy subsidise ticket prices – a cultural ‘Eat making in Government to Out to Help Out’ scheme if you like - bring their skills and to attract people back into high experiences to shape policy streets, town and city centres, development. targeted at groups who have least access to cultural experiences. This Recognise and enhance the should be available to those network of cultural venues producing or presenting within throughout Wales as spaces, venues and outside buildings e.g. pop assets and resources to support us, rural touring etc. Welsh cultural and community well- Government should also address the being. financial transport and mobility barriers to accessing and Establish permanent participating in culture. opportunities to give people a voice in planning the future of “We believe that weaving cultural the culture and creative sector. engagement into the fabric of the nation, as a unifying endeavour, is an essential if the nation is to heal, and to renew.”

Amgueddfa Cymru

www.futuregenerations.wales 28 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government The National Nature Service

A Fit for the Future Programme for Government The National Nature Service

29 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government The National Nature Service

The National Nature Service It seeks to: Introduction Support the delivery of thousands of new, good quality jobs which can underpin Wales’ recovery from the pandemic and help tackle the nature Our current economic and financial and climate emergencies. model has been achieved as a result of Provide good quality livelihoods. natural resource exploitation and Help protect and restore Wales’ natural environmental damage, along with environment with a long-term, joined-up increasing levels of income inequality, approach. which will have increasingly negative Ensure young people (and adults) learn consequences for younger and future about the natural systems that make life generations. on earth possible (eco-literacy), in turn, providing the foundation from which As a result, we’re starting to hit people can work together to take an environmental limits to economic integrated approach to tackling global growth, causing significant social and challenges. economic costs. However, skills and Deliver a more integrated, cross-sector employability can underpin Wales’ model that better aligns volunteers, recovery from the dual crises of COVID- apprenticeships, placements, 19 and the climate and nature crises. opportunities from social prescribing, And analysis shows there's a need for and existing/new job opportunities in an expanded workforce and a Wales. significant increase in jobs in P r o vide jobs at entry and graduate level, environmental management. enabling unemployed and underemployed people to find training What is a National Nature Service? and paid work in nature conservation, at the same time as putting more capital The concept of a National Nature Service and people resource into meaningfully has been developed in Wales following improving Wales’ depleted natural more than 6 months of co-design with a resources. wide range of individuals, organisations Work in partnership with cultural and and networks across all sectors. It’s a sporting organisations to help promote framework to rapidly establish new and exercise and engagement with the future focused opportunities around skills, outdoors, local heritage, Welsh jobs and the restoration of Wales’ natural language, mental health and tourism. environment, whilst also better aligning Empower local action and make the the existing mechanisms in place. It seeks most of the freelancers and public to respond to the nature and climate bodies pledge to reimagine Wales’ emergencies and help address the towns and cities, transforming them into economic and social (justice) fallout of places that encourage healthy lifestyles, the pandemic. It would do this by create new green spaces, connect upskilling and expanding the workforce communities and provide better with good quality livelihoods in a sector opportunities for local business. shown to have significant job creation Demonstrate Wales as a globally potential as part of a green and just responsible nation. recovery. www.futuregenerations.wales 30 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government The National Nature Service

The National Nature Service is “The National Nature Service could build ambitious, long-term, inclusive and on many previous projects and smaller intended to be deeply integrated into scale schemes which have successfully the fabric of our national life. It’s helped people into work by giving them supported by the Green Recovery Task vocational training in environmental and Finish Group, established in 2020 activities. What’s exciting is the by Lesley Griffiths, and is the same opportunity to take this to a national concept as the ‘Conservation Corps’, proposed by the Ffenics advisory board scale and make it universally accessible, to Welsh Government. linking it to the new public money for public goods approach as set out in the Government’s white paper on agriculture. The National Nature Service Dwr Cymru / Welsh Water (DCWW) The Challenges Ahead “WCVA has been involved in the discussion and development of the National Nature Service for Wales. Much The State of Nature report (2019) of it fits with the work that we have been describes the UK as “among the most doing on our programmes and it is an nature-depleted countries in the world”. area in which we have extensive In Wales, no ecosystem is currently expertise, connections and mechanisms showing all the attributes of resilience, to draw on. and most of Wales’ protected site network is in unfavourable condition. The Wales Council for Voluntary Action In green industries, there is a chronic (WCVA) lack of diversity in the workforce. For example, the total proportion of non- Nearly half of adults in Wales report white ethnicity of the workforce under having a longstanding illness, with 21% both ‘Reforestation and natural flood reporting two or more illnesses. The defence’ and ‘Agricultural land high proportion of our population in ill management’ is 0.76%. Less than 5% of health has been brought into sharp apprenticeship starts in ‘Agricultural focus by the pandemic. land management’ in 2019-20 were female. Analysis by the Green Alliance shows the towns and smaller cities struggling 63% of those newly unemployed in the most with unemployment before the UK in 2020-21 are under 25. And pandemic have the highest potential for approximately 26,802 young people environmental improvements and, were unemployed in Wales as of Dec therefore, the greatest opportunity for 2020. green jobs growth.

www.futuregenerations.wales 31 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government The National Nature Service

The National Nature Service Manifesto Pledges

The Labour Manifesto pledges which It would also make a significant have been considered within this contribution towards other manifesto section include: pledges including:

Creating a National Forest to Taking forward your Economic promote Wales’ landscape, boost Resilience and Reconstruction sustainable tourism and support Mission for Wales. Wales’ green economy. Investing for the long-term in the Delivering nature-based flood green and modern infrastructure management in all major river Wales needs to thrive. catchments to expand wetland and woodland habitats and relieving Supporting young people affected by pressure on hard defences. Brexit and the pandemic by developing a young person’s Creating a new farm system of farm guarantee, giving everyone under 25 support that will maximise the the offer of work, education, training protective power of nature through or self-employment. farming. Create 125,000 all-age Developing a Wales Community Food apprenticeships during the next Strategy to encourage the supply of Senedd term. locally sourced food in Wales. Introducing an all-Wales framework Establishing a targeted scheme to to roll out social prescribing to tackle support restoration of seagrass and isolation. saltmarsh habitats along our coastline. Address pay gaps based on gender, sexual orientation, ethnicity, disability Using materials with low levels of and other forms of discrimination. embodied carbon, such as Welsh timber. Help the most financially vulnerable in our communities. Promoting good quality skills in the areas where the economy will grow. Expanding the successful scheme supporting community groups across Wales to create or significantly enhance green spaces.

A tourism levy, ring fenced to improve visitor experiences and boost local economies.

www.futuregenerations.wales 32 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government The National Nature Service

The National Nature Service “The Valleys Regional Park (VRP) provides an Implementation ideal opportunity for piloting the National Nature Service on a regional scale, illustrating how it could be delivered in In order to implement these pledges, practice in a particular place. This would Welsh Government must allow the concept to be tested and developed in a way which also enables the VRP to maximise its contribution to the Set out how it can deliver thousands communities of South Wales. of new, good quality jobs which will

underpin Wales’ recoveryfrom the The potential importance of such sites in pandemic, whilst at the same time, help tackle the nature and climate facilitating nature-based employment is far emergencies. wider than the immediate onsite job opportunities. The VRP and Discovery Address the skills gap in green Gateway network could trial the approach industries where there is an urgent which becomes the potential framework for need for an expanded workforce. the country-wide movement.

Develop a workforce with the right If the approach is recognised as a potential skills for the future. powerhouse that drives a sustainable heartbeat to the National Nature Service in Ensure accessibility of good quality jobs to all, including young people the Valleys, then it provides further incentive and often ‘left behind’ communities for sustained investment as part of a and demographics. permanent operating model.”

Prioritise future work opportunities The Valleys Regional Park that improve health outcomes at all ages, contributing to potential reductions in prescribed medications through exercise and engagement with the outdoors and delivering on well-being for the long-term.

“As well as direct benefits to RSPB Cymru itself, the organisation sees the National Nature Service as a way of scaling up the number of people in Wales’s workforce who have the skills and experience to respond to the nature emergency, and improving the nation’s understanding of how to manage natural resources sustainably for the long term.”

RSPB Cymru

www.futuregenerations.wales 33 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government The National Nature Service

The National Nature Service Priority Actions

The New Programme for Government Establishing a National Nature Service should: would build on the extensive cross- sector co-design that has taken place Establish a National Nature Service for with individuals, organisations and Wales to respond to the nature and networks across Wales to develop the concept. It could deliver thousands of climate emergencies and help address new, good quality jobs. For example: the economic and social (justice) fallout of the pandemic. 4,000 direct jobs could be delivered within the first 2 years Initial focus should be to establish a (Source: Transition Economics for Wales TUC- ‘Job Creation in programme development team to rapidly: Wales from Infrastructure Investment.’ Deliver action research pilot schemes. Approximately 7,000 FTE jobs within a 10 year period (Source: Identify a pipeline of environmental RSPB Cymru - ‘Developing a projects that are ready to go. Green Workforce in Wales: Estimating the Scale of Need and Align existing schemes and pathways Opportunity’, Rayment 2020). in relation to education, volunteering, Provide a framework for apprenticeships, and employment supporting an increase and opportunities. completion of green apprenticeships as part of Welsh Identify where existing Government’s 125,000 all-age apprenticeships could be made apprenticeships pledge during the greener and where we have gaps new Senedd term. Transition that could be filled by new green Economics have recommended apprenticeships. Welsh Government should ‘seek to ringfence 33% of existing Identify the level of investment apprenticeship funding towards Green Apprenticeships.’ needed. The potential for additional jobs to be created through supply chain and multiplier effects, and in areas such as farming and food systems of the future, where there are currently gaps in data and analysis.

www.futuregenerations.wales 34 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government UBI

A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Universal Basic Income

A universal basic income is a regular, unconditional payment to every individual, designed to cover their basic needs.

35 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government UBI

Universal Basic Income Introduction

Wales is overcome with a number of economic and social problems pertaining to health, income, the social security system and the labour market. The welfare system is failing and not fit for the future. A 2018 United Nations poverty and human rights enquiry into the UK benefits system condemned the ‘major limits on government support’, along with a ‘simple-minded focus on getting people into employment at all costs’.

According to the World Health Organisation, poverty is the single largest determinant of health, and ill health is an obstacle to social and economic development. Poorer people live shorter lives and have poorer health than affluent people. Current ways of working and funding are not sufficient. “The issues that led to the problem "we've Wales has had the smallest known about for years" and this result could improvements in average life have been foreseen. "It is fundamentally expectancy of all listed countries. Only about poverty and health inequalities. If men in the USA have had lower average someone had pulled any one of us up in improvements. The COVID pandemic February 2020 and said, 'There's a pandemic has exposed the poverty related health coming, can you fast forward one year and inequalities in communities across assess which communities would have the Wales. most severe hit from this pandemic?', you could almost predict the picture we're seeing Wales has the worst child poverty rate now with a reasonable degree of accuracy.” of all the UK nations, with 31% of children living below the poverty line according to research carried out by Kelechi Nnoaham, Director for Public Health Loughborough University for the UK End at Cwm Taf Morgannwg, (in response to the Child Poverty Coalition. COVID crisis).

www.futuregenerations.wales 36 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government UBI

Universal Basic Income The Challenges Ahead

Wales currently has amongst the Between April and September 2020, the highest levels of children, working-age Trussell Trust network delivered over adults and pensioners living in relative 70,000 food parcels to residents of income poverty in the UK. In its latest Wales. There are also a large number of state of the nation report, Poverty in independent food banks, many Wales 2020, the Joseph Rowntree established during COVID-19, whose Foundation shows that a combination food parcels are not included in these of low pay, unaffordable housing and a figures. lack of childcare is trapping 700,000 people in poverty. That includes The use of ‘zero-hours’ contracts is 180,000 children, of which 140,000 particularly acute in Wales. Research live in families already receiving conducted by TUC Cymru showed that income-related benefits - the social between June 2018 and June 2019 the security system is failing to help many number of people on zero-hours families keep their heads above water. contracts in Wales rose by 35%.

The Covid crisis has also worsened Like those in many nations, people in things for some. In his accompanying Wales have turned to online platform report to the Welsh Government’s work (sometimes known as the ‘gig draft budget for 2020-21, the Chief economy’) for sources of income. Economist Jonathan Price notes: Between 2016 and 2019, the number of “Disadvantaged groups in the labour people in the UK working for online market are being most badly affected, platforms at least once a week has with particularly adverse impacts on doubled from 4.7% of the adult the low paid and on young people population to 9.6%.10 A study by the entering the labour market. Poverty will TUC found that there are now 1.4 have increased. One effect of the crisis million people who access online labour will therefore be to increase inequality, platforms as their main source of and as a result of “scarring” impacts income. Just like zero-hour contracts, on younger people in both education this form of work involves no contracted and the labour market, this effect will hours, few rights and low pay in general. persist.” Today, around 15% of Wales’ working age population are ‘platform workers’ of one stripe or another, representing yet another signal that traditional working life is changing in ways largely unfavorable to those in the labour market.

www.futuregenerations.wales 37 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government UBI

Universal Basic Income A Basic Income Pilot

A key forerunner to any implementation Recent polling shows that 69% of the of a basic income in Wales will be a public support Welsh Government successful trial which would: trialling a basic income scheme (only 11% oppose). 67% support Welsh Build public support and awareness Government increasing taxes on the very around basic income. rich in order to provide a ‘basic standard of living for everyone in Wales’. Generate debate among key Welsh stakeholders, leading to a stronger Finland conducted a two-year trial of understanding of the strengths and basic income from 1 January 2017 to 31 weaknesses of basic income designs. December 2018, providing an unconditional payment of €560 per Build on the ethical case for basic month to 2,000 randomly-sampled income by building an evidence-base unemployed people, aged 25 to 58. It of its observable social and was found that those who received the psychological impacts. basic income worked an average of six days more than those receiving regular Help to identify and iron out any unemployment benefits. practical difficulties associated with the implementation and Significant improvements were found in administration of a basic income, relation to life satisfaction, trust in other particularly reflecting concerns from people and institutions, mental and certain demographics, before it is physical health, experience of expanded nationally. depression, confidence in one’s own future, and financial situation. Collect experimental data on the impacts of a basic income in Wales This included a 17% incidence of that can be used to further inform improved physical and mental health, the design of a national model. and a 37% decrease in the incidence of depression.

www.futuregenerations.wales 38 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government UBI

Universal Basic Income What’s possible with a UBI for Wales?

A Basic Income could:

1. Enhance the well-being of individuals and communities by improving economic security and providing the financial base needed to plan and make choices in life. 2. Help move us towards a more prosperous Wales by providing a vital cushion for those in occupations most affected by COVID and/or automation, as they move into other kinds of work. 3. Provide a robust form of support for older people, as well as a valuable resource for people shouldering caring responsibilities. 4. Contribute to a more equal Wales by giving more people the resources to undertake education. 5. Provide opportunities for recipients to develop their creativity through volunteering or creative placements, with creative pathways for people to continue to learn and develop their creative skills as part of the Care-Led Recovery 6. Contribute towards mitigating against the increasingly precarious nature of work.

And much much more…

www.futuregenerations.wales 39 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government UBI

Universal Basic Income Priority Actions

Welsh Government should establish a pilot of a Universal Basic Income which should:

1. Be geographically based and 2. Provide a non means-tested and include participants split across two non-withdrawable monthly payment. specific communities – in one urban and one rural region of Wales. It would be delivered directly into individuals’ personal bank accounts. In addition to the two test There would be no behavioural populations, the pilot would include conditions to satisfy in order to stratified and randomly selected receive the payment. The amount control groups, demographically would be set at different rates for comparable to the pilot sites and the children (0-17), adults (18-64) and Welsh population as a whole. adults aged 65 and over. The basic income would be paid in addition to existing benefits for people with additional needs, such as disability benefits.

3. Be run for a period of 24 months.

A longer trial may create a sense of public fatigue in assessing the merits of the scheme, and would delay the possibility of implementing a full basic income in Wales. The pilot should be monitored and evaluated by an independent research group and use a variety of evaluation methods to investigate a range of personal and social impacts, consistent with the ambitions of the Well-being of Future Generations Act.

www.futuregenerations.wales 40 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Business

A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Business as a force for good

41 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Business

Business as a force for good Introduction

A Prosperous, Green and Equal recovery "Public bodies are yet to take full can only be realized if businesses in advantage of the expertise and capacity Wales play their part in delivering on the within the third and private sectors to Well-being of Future Generations Act. support their work under the Act. Green skills and jobs, achieving Net Therefore, public bodies could realise Zero, zero waste, enhancing and additional benefits of working alongside promoting nature, the foundational third and private sector organisations to economy and addressing inequality all adopt the principles of the Act when they require businesses to deliver on well- deliver services for and on behalf of the being and sustainability at the core of public service.” their business model. I have advised 60 companies in Wales The next five years offers the around adopting the national well-being opportunity for the Welsh Government goals in their business models, however a to harness the innovation and series of roundtable discussions with over investment of the Welsh private sector – 180 businesses has revealed that the lack through building on the Economic of awareness within the Welsh private Contract and furthering the use of sector on how they can contribute to policy, procurement, partnership and meeting Wales’ wellbeing goals - and the finance levers both to require lack of national coordination within the businesses to adopt more responsible private sector in Wales around the Well- and sustainable operations and being of Future Generations Act – is incentivize investments in wellbeing. preventing more actions being taken.

Welsh businesses (and others) can, and Despite the lack of national organisation must, play their role in delivering a of business around the Act, a patchwork wellbeing economy for the people of of progress is emerging within the Wales. To do this, the Welsh business community. Food & Drink Government should address the need to Association Wales aims to develop the organize business in Wales around the highest sustainability and ethical supply Well-being of Future Generations Act chain standards globally, Construction and review how existing and future Excellence in Wales is creating guidelines finance instruments and policy for their members on the Act – and a standards can further compel series of innovative and sustainable businesses to align to the Act. business models in the SME sector have been identified. A number of business The Senedd Public Accounts schools, business development services Committee review into the Act (March business networks have requested 2021) concluded that: support from me to design guidance for businesses on how to align to the Act.

www.futuregenerations.wales 42 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Business

Business as a force for good Manifesto Pledges

The Labour Manifesto and current Welsh Government strategies includes several pledges which recognizes the need to support and encourage sustainable business and collaboration. They include:

Take forward our Economic Resilience and Reconstruction Mission for Wales and promote good quality skills in the areas where we know the economy will grow and support businesses around the foundational and circular economy.

Net Zero Wales 2050 target and the transition to a low carbon economy.

Support 80 re-use and repair hubs in town centres and bring together a place based zero waste challenge network of organisations to support cultural change in businesses and communities.

Take forward our new Digital Strategy for Wales and upgrade our digital and communications infrastructure.

www.futuregenerations.wales 43 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Business

Business as a force for good Implementation

The priority actions below could help support the implementation of these pledges by:

Convening leading business Reviewing the policy coherence stakeholders and trade unions in within Welsh Government to promote Wales to assess the private sector’s the Act to the private sector – and current and potential contribution to ensure alignment and synergy the Act and develop a strategy to between the Welsh Government’s promote and embed the Act within Economic Contract, Innovation funds, Welsh business. This strategy should Challenge Funds, Business Wales aim to ensure Welsh businesses can and international trade strategies - effectively partner with the Welsh ensuring the Welsh Government is public sector, and trade unions to promoting the adoption of wellbeing deliver on the Economic Resilience and future generations actions and and Reconstruction Mission for investment by the Welsh private Wales and Net Zero Wales. sector through a whole of government approach. Establishing a Well-being of Future Generations Investment Summit. Identify the support needs facing Investment Summit for businesses in women led and black and ethnic and outside of Wales to identify minority led businesses as they opportunities for business to invest recover from the pandemic. in, and partner with the public sector to deliver on, wellbeing. The summit should identify the top 100 Future Generations Business of Wales and encourage the development of network of Future Generations businesses to share and adopt good business practice around the Act. Alongside this, the summit will identify how to create a pipeline of Future Generations businesses that will supply the Welsh public sector with sustainable business innovations for procurement contracts, challenge funds, trade strategies and the foundational economy.

www.futuregenerations.wales 44 A Fit for the Future Programme for Government Business

Business as a force for good Priority Actions

Welsh Government should:

Convene leading private sector stakeholders and trade unions to assess how to create a Movement for Change within the Welsh Private sector around the WBFG Act and identify options for creating and sustaining a network of Future Generations businesses and for a Well-being of Future Generations Investment Summit.

Review how to build on the Economic Contract and use Business Wales and Welsh Government policy and finance levers to encourage more businesses in Wales to pledge commitments and investments to align to the Well-being and Future Generations Act.

www.futuregenerations.wales 45 www.futuregenerations.wales [email protected]