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The Three Laws of Climate Change Accuracy, Accuracy, Accuracy The Three Laws of Climate Change Accuracy, Accuracy, Accuracy WCRP Climate Sensitivity Grand Challenge Workshop March 23-28, 2014 Bruce Wielicki NASA Langley Research Center 1 OBS: Reducing Uncertainty in Climate Sensitivity • Short time scale cloud and aerosol processes • Use process studies to develop improved climate model parameterizations (i.e. develop a hypothesis) • Test the hypothesis against decadal change observations, determine uncertainty of future predictions Focus on last item: what observations? accuracy? time/space scales? 2 What Long Term Observations to Test Feedbacks? • Decadal trends in radiation, cloud, aerosol, and temperature – Broadband SW, LW, and Net radiative fluxes (e.g. Cloud Radiative Effect) – Cloud Properties: cloud fraction, visible optical depth, infrared emissivity, height/temperature, particle phase, particle size – Aerosol Indirect Radiative Forcing: to separate SW cloud feedbacks from changes in indirect aerosol radiative forcing – Surface and troposphere temperatures 3 Accuracy Requirements of the Climate Observing System The length of time required to detect a climate trend caused by human activities is determined by: • Natural variability • The magnitude of human driven climate change • The accuracy of the Uncertainty Uncertainty of Observable Trend observing system Even a perfect observing system is limited by natural variability 4 Reflected Solar Accuracy and Climate Trends Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty is a factor of 4 (IPCC, 90% conf) which =factor of 16 uncertainty in climate change economic impacts Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty = Cloud Feedback Uncertainty = Low Cloud Feedback = Changes in SW CRF/decade (y-axis of figure) Higher Accuracy Observations = CLARREO reference intercal of CERES = narrowed uncertainty 15 to 20 years earlier Wielicki et al. 2013, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society High accuracy is critical to more rapid understanding of climate change 5 Calibration Reference Spectrometers (IR/RS) for Global Climate, Weather, Land, Ocean satellite instruments Provide spectral, angle, space, and time matched orbit crossing observations for all leo and geo orbits critical to support reference intercalibration Endorsed by WMO & GSICS (letter to NASA HQ) Calibrate Leo and Geo instruments relevant to climate sensitivity: - JPSS: VIIRS, CrIS, CERES - METOP: IASI, AVHRR - Geostationary imagers/sounders CLARREO Provides "NIST in Orbit": Transfer Spectrometers to SI Standards 6 The Grand Challenge • We have no global climate observing system (unlike weather) • We will be controlling Earth's climate (indirectly or directly) as long as human civilization survives on the planet. • What is the economic value to society of solving this Grand Challenge of climate sensitivity? Can we estimate it? 7 The Three Laws of Climate Change Economics, Economics, Economics 8 Climate Science Value of Information (VOI) Calculation Cooke et al., Journal of Environment, Systems, and Decisions, July 2013, paper has open and free distribution online. New Interdisciplinary Integration of Climate Science and Economics 9 VOI Estimation Method BAU Emissions Climate Sensitivity Climate Change Economic Impacts 10 VOI Estimation Method BAU Emissions Climate Sensitivity Fuzzy Fuzzy Lens #1 Lens #2 Natural Observing Societal Climate Variability System Decision Change Uncertainty Uncertainty Economic Impacts 11 VOI Estimation Method BAU Reduced Emissions Emissions Climate Climate Sensitivity Sensitivity Fuzzy Fuzzy Lens #1 Lens #2 Natural Observing Societal Reduced Climate Variability System Decision Change Uncertainty Uncertainty Climate Change Economic Reduced Impacts Economic Impacts 12 VOI Estimation Method BAU Reduced Emissions Emissions Climate Climate Sensitivity Sensitivity Fuzzy Fuzzy Lens #1 Lens #2 Natural Observing Societal Reduced Climate Variability System Decision Change Uncertainty Uncertainty Climate Change Economic Reduced Impacts Economic Impacts Climate Science VOI 13 Economics: The Big Picture • World GDP today ~ $70 Trillion US dollars • Net Present Value (NPV) – compare a current investment to other investments that could have been made with the same resources • Discount rate: 3% – 10 years: discount future value by factor of 1.3 – 25 years: discount future value by factor of 2.1 – 50 years: discount future value by factor of 4.4 – 100 years: discount future value by factor of 21 • Business as usual climate damages in 2050 to 2100: 0.5% to 5% of GDP per year depending on climate sensitivity. 1 14 VOI vs. Discount Rate Run 1000s of economic simulations and then average over the full IPCC distribution of possible climate sensitivity CLARREO/Improved Climate Observations Discount Rate VOI (US 2015 dollars, net present value) 2.5% $17.6 T 3% $11.7 T 5% $3.1 T Additional Cost of an advanced climate observing system: ~ $10B/yr worldwide Cost for 30 years of such observations is ~ $200 to $250B in NPV For a payback ratio of ~ $50 per $1 invested Even at the highest discount rate, return on investment is very large 15 The Grand Challenge: Climate Sensitivity Improved Cloud Process Observations & Models Higher Accuracy Global Climate Model Climate Change Feedback Predictions Observations vs Observations Reduced Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty, Improved Climate Change Predictions, Economic Outcomes 16 Backup Slides Mission Concept Review 17Nov10 NASA Internal Use Only 3.1 - 17 Decadal Change Climate Science 18 CLARREO: NIST in Orbit GNSS Infrared (IR) Reflected Solar (RS) Radio Occultation Instrument Suite Instrument Suite Receiver Fourier Transform Two Grating Spectrometers GNSS Receiver, POD Spectrometer Gimbal-mounted (1-axis) Antenna, RO Antennae • Systematic error less than • Systematic error less than • Refractivity uncertainty 0.1K (k=3) 0.3% (k=2) of earth mean 0.03% (k=1) for 5 to 20 -1 reflectance • 200 – 2000 cm km altitude range. contiguous spectral • 320 – 2300 nm contiguous (Equivalent to 0.1K (k=3) coverage spectral coverage for temperature -1 • 0.5 cm unapodized • 4 nm sampling, 8 nm res • 1000 occultations/day spectral resolution • 300 m fov, 100 km swath • 25 km nadir fov, 1 earth sample every 200 km • Mass: 67 Kg • Mass: 18 Kg • Power: 96 W • Power: 35 W • Mass: 76 Kg • Power and Mass are total • Power: 124 W for both spectrometers Small Instruments, Higher Accuracy, Climate Change Sampling Only 19 Calibration Reference Spectrometers (IR/RS) for Global Climate, Weather, Land, Ocean satellite instruments Provide spectral, angle, space, and time matched orbit crossing observations for all leo and geo orbits critical to support reference intercalibration Endorsed by WMO & GSICS (letter to NASA HQ) Calibrate Leo and Geo instruments: e.g. - JPSS: VIIRS, CrIS, CERES - METOP: IASI, AVHRR - Landsat, etc land imagers - Ocean color sensors - GOES imagers/sounders CLARREO Provides "NIST in Orbit": Transfer Spectrometers to SI Standards 20 Global Satellite Observations 21 Intercalibration to CLARREO for Climate Change Accuracy LANDSAT Intercalibration of 30 to 40 instruments in LEO and GEO orbits 22 Infrared Accuracy and Climate Trends IPCC next few decades temperature trends: 0.16C to 0.34C varying with climate sensitivity An uncertainty of half the magnitude of the trend is ~ 0.1C. Achieved 15 years earlier with CLARREO accuracy. Length of Observed Trend High accuracy is critical to more rapid understanding of climate change LaRC/GSFC Meeting Nov 16, 2012 NASA internal Use Only - 23 Value of Climate Science Observations Value of Climate Science Information (VOI) Societal Policy Changes Emissions Anthropogenic Climate Anthropogenic Future Scenario Radiative Sensitivity Driven Climate Economic Forcing Change Impacts Uncertainties Uncertainties Uncertainties Uncertainties Uncertainties technological aerosol direct & climate natural long term emissions indirect forcing2 sensitivity1 variability2 discount rate innovation carbon cycle natural observation technological global incl. methane2 variability1 accuracy2 adaptation economic innovations development observation ice sheets2 accuracy1 conversion of ocean acidity2 climate change IAMS to economics ecosystems IMSCC land + ocean Phase 1 Results system tipping IAMS points IMSCC Economic Science Climate Science Climate Science Climate Science Economic Science VOI Research VOI Research VOI Research VOI Research VOI Research 24 24 Decadal Change Reference Intercalibration Benchmarks: Tracing Mission Requirements Clim ate Model Predicted Decadal Change Natural Variability Natural Variability Observed Decadal Change VIIRS/ CrI S/ CERES Stable VIIRS/ CrI S/ CERES L3 Tim e Series Orbit Sampling L3 Tim e Series Sam pling Sam pling Uncertainty Uncertainty VIIRS/ CrI S/ CERES Stable Retreival VIIRS/ CrI S/ CERES L2 Variable Data Algorithms & Orbit L2 Variable Data Retrieval Retrieval Uncertainty Uncertainty VIIRS/ CrI S/ CERES Stable Operational VIIRS/ CrI S/ CERES L1 B Data Instrument Design L1 B Data GSI CS GSI CS I nterCalibration I nterCalibration Uncertainty Uncertainty CLARREO Stable CLARREO CLARREO L1 B Data Instrument Design L1 B Data Pr e & Post Launch Pr e & Post Launch Calibration Calibration Uncertainty Uncertainty SI Stable SI Standard SI Standard Standard DECADE 1 DECADE 2 25 IR On-orbit Verification Instrument Line Shape (ILS) (perpendicular to Beam- splitter polarization axis) “Ambient” BB Demonstration instruments: Univ Wisconsin, NASA Langley SI Traceable Accuracy 0.1K (k=3) all Earth Scene Temps (190 to 320K) GSFC Meeting Oct 2, 2012 NASA Internal Use Only - 26 CLARREO Reflected Solar Measurements – Calibration accuracy
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