Boeing 787 Dreamliner

Transports July 2021 Richard Aboulafia Vice President, Analysis [email protected]

Program Briefing The 787 (originally 7E7) Dreamliner is a twin-engine twin aisle commercial transport designed for medium and long-range . Just above the size class of the 220/260-seat 767, the 787 features advanced technologies such as a 787-8 largely composite and mostly electric systems. Launched in 2004 by ANA, the 787 original plan. Over 900 have been de- Boeing first announced the 787 in entered service in November 2011, livered. early 2003, and decided to offer the three and a half years later than the 787 to airlines in December 2003.

Manufacturer The Boeing Co. P.O. Box 3707 , WA 98124 Tel: (206) 655-2121 www.boeing.com

Subsystems Airframe The 787 is the first jetliner with Charleston. Charleston delivered its Various suppliers provide another primary struc- first 787 in 2012. In mid-2020, Boe- 4% of the airframe. The rest comes tures. The main material is graphite ing decided to close the Everett line, from Japan, Italy, and South Caro- combined with a toughened epoxy leaving Charleston. As of September lina. resin. The also uses TiGr, tita- 2020, of the 1,062 787s built, 404 had Seating is eight or nine abreast. nium/graphite composite. The cur- been built in Charleston. The final The majority have been ordered with rent composition of the airframe, by Everett-built 787, #1095 for ANA, nine abreast interiors. weight, is 50% carbon fiber lami- rolled off the line in February 2021. nated composites (CFRP), with the Boeing (pre-Wichita divestiture) Airframe Subcontractors remainder comprising 20% alumi- was to supply 35% of the 787 struc- • Alcan Rolled Products: alumi- num, 15% , 10% steel, and ture, including the vertical fin (Fred- num 5% other. erickson), the fixed and movable • Alenia/ Aircraft (Tri- In terms of design, the 787 resem- leading edges of the wing (Tulsa), the umph)/Boeing: Working together bles most twin aisle jetliner, only deck and part of the forward fu- in Charleston, SC as Global Aer- with a swept fin and a more tapered selage (the Wichita facility, now onautica, the two companies were nose. Controls are largely electric. Spirit AeroSystems), movable trail- to provide 26% of the 787 struc- Final assembly took place in Ev- ing edges (Hawker De Havilland, ture including the center and aft erett and Charleston. The 787-8 and Australia), and the wing-to-body and the horizontal stabi- some -9s were built in Everett, while fairing (Winnipeg). lizer. In March 2008, Boeing pur- some -9s and all -10s were built in chased Vought’s share of Global,

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and in December 2009 it acquired • GKN : Composite mat • Latécoère: passenger doors Alenia's share as well. Thus, for wing , ti- • LMI Aerospace: wing tooling some of this work is now per- tanium wing to body and wing to and components formed by Boeing, although Ale- fittings; complex ma- • Norsk Titanium: D-printed struc- nia has retained its production chined titanium and aluminum tural titanium components share (horizontal stabilizer and parts and assemblies for horizon- • Orbital ATK: composite frames the central and aft sections, tal stabilizer on 787-9 for -9 and -10 center and aft fuse- amounting to 14% of the 787 • Hafei Aviation Industries lages structure). In June 2011 Boeing (AVIC): wing to body fairing • PlasticFab: composite and metal announced an agreement with panels panels Alenia under which Alenia acts • Hexcel: pre-preg composite ma- • RTI International Metals: tita- as a second source for production terials nium components (for Fuji and of the horizontal stabilizers for • Hitco Carbon Composites: com- Kawasaki) 787-9 beginning in 2013. Boeing posite floor beams (for Kawa- • Saab Aerostructures: large cargo said it will develop the stabilizers saki); passenger floor and cargo doors, bulk cargo door, access for the 787-9 itself, and will tran- header beams (for Spirit) doors sition the primary stabilizer pro- • Israel Aerospace Industries: Sec- • Safran (Messier-Dowty): main duction when mature to a loca- tion 47 passenger cabin and cargo and nose (including tion yet to be determined. Alenia compartment floors, passenger design) will be a secondary source. The and cargo door surrounds • Saint-Gobain: nose radomes (for remainder of Vought has been • Jamco: flight deck bulkhead Spirit) sold to . • Japan Aircraft Development. Jap- • Shenyang Aircraft Group • Asco Aerospace Canada: Section anese industry provides 35% of (AVIC): vertical fin leading edge 48 upper fin deck, bulkheads the 787 structure, including the • Souriau: composite connectors • Avcorp: composite structural wing. Main companies will in- components for Fuji • Stellex: Section 41 pax floor as- clude Mitsubishi (responsible for sembly (for Spirit) • BHA Aero Composites: vertical the main wing box), Fuji/Subaru fin panels • Strata (UAE): (CFRP center wing box, integra- vertical fin ribs on -9; vertical • Boeing Aerostructures Australia tion of the wing box and main fins starting in 2020 (formerly ASTA): trailing edges landing gear wheel well), and • TAL Manufacturing (Tata Mo- • Chengdu Aircraft (AVIC): rudder Kawasaki Heavy Industries (re- tors): floor beams on -9 • Curtiss-Wright: structural fittings mainder of forward fuselage, • : TORAYCA and mechanical system for large main landing gear wheel well, prepreg composite material for cargo door (for Saab) main wing fixed trailing edge). Japanese contractors and Boeing • Daher: thermoplastic composite • Korean Aerospace Industries: • Triumph: long support spars (for structural parts front and rear spars, three trans- Shenyang) • Ducommun AeroStructures: tita- verse beams in Section II center • Turkish Aerospace Industries: el- nium detail components and sub- (for Subaru); wing fixed evator, cargo barrier, body seal assemblies trailing edges (for Kawasaki); • VSMPO-Avisma: titanium forg- • EADS: aft pressure bulkhead Section 41 nose wheel well (for ings • M.C. Gill: floor panels Spirit); pivot bulkhead • Aerospace: aft body structural assembly; wingtips

Propulsion Engines In mid-2016 Rolls introduced the Propulsion System In April 2004 Boeing selected a Trent 1000-TEN, an upgraded ver- Subcontractors choice of two engine contractors. sion. It entered service in November • Aermacchi: nacelle fan cowls is offering its GEnx- 2017. (for Goodrich) 1B70, related to the GE90-94B, The losing 787 engine was Pratt & • Aernnova: engine cowlings while Rolls-Royce is offering its Whitney’s PW-EXX. • Avio: gear boxes, LP turbine Trent 1000, a Trent 900 variant. static components and casing, lu- These are in the 70,000 lbst class. brication system on GEnx (12% program stake)

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• FACC: thrust reverser compo- spool on GEnx (6% program • Mitsubishi Heavy Industries: nents and movable blocker doors stake) LPT blades, IP turbine discs, on GEnx thrust reverser (for • Goodrich: thrust reversers, na- combustor parts on Trent 1000 Goodrich) celles • Spirit AeroSystems: engine py- • GKN Aerospace: composite fan • Ishikawajima-Harima/Mitsubishi lons containment case on GEnx; tita- Heavy Industries: LP turbine ro- • Sumitomo Precision Products: nium thrust links; outer guide tating components and module Trent 1000 heat management sys- vane mount ring and rear fan case assembly on GEnx (15% pro- tem (with Parker Aerospace) for Trent 1000 gram stake) • Techspace Aero: booster stator • GKN (Volvo Aero): fan hub • Kreisler Manufacturing: Trent on GEnx (3% program stake) frame, turbine rear frame, booster 1000 fuel manifolds (for Parker • Woodward Governor: GEnx fuel Aerospace) system integrator

Electronics The 787 has a 777-compatible weather radar, and terrain awareness the integrated standby flight display flight deck. Rockwell Collins pro- and warning systems. Smiths Aero- and offers a wireless IFE system vide liquid crystal and HUD displays space is providing the Common Core (Panasonic is an alternative IFE pro- and communications and surveil- system. is providing the vider). Korry Electronics is provid- lance system packages, including navigation and aircraft health man- ing flight deck control panels. VHF radios, TCAS, WXR-2100 agement systems. Thales is providing

Other Systems Other Suppliers sensing system, fuel quantity in- • Michelin: second source for af- • Astronautics Corp: electronic dicating system, fuel manage- termarket nose and main tires flight bags ment software, flight deck light- • Moog: flight control actuation • Avtron Manufacturing: starter ing system, flight attendant seats, system generator dynamometer test optional flight deck entry video • MTI Global: thermal and acous- stands surveillance system tic interior insulation (for Spirit) • : tires • Goodrich Hella: exterior lighting • Northwest Composites: sidewalls • CTT Systems: zonal drying sys- • GS Yuasa: -ion batteries and linings tem (for Thales) • Panasonic (Matsushita ): • Carleton: life support systems • Héroux-Devtek (CESA): actuator cabin services system • Crane Aerospace: power condi- components (starting 2020) • Parker Aerospace: hydraulic sub- tioning modules for Smiths com- • Héroux-Devtek: torque tubes system, pumps/reservoirs, filter mon core processors, brake con- (starting 2015) modules, sensors, flow control trol and monitoring system • Honeywell: LED navigation/anti- devices • Dassault Systèmes: product de- collision lighting system, crew • Pfalz-Flugzeugwerke: metallic velopment software information system, cargo bay tubing and ducting, fuel line • Deutsch: connectors lighting tubes • Diehl Luftfahrt Elektronik: main • Ipeco: flight deck seats • Porvair: filter kit and Differential cabin lighting • Jamco: lavatories Pressure Indicator • Diethelm Keller Aviation: rotable • Kidde Technologies: fire detec- • PPG Aerospace: dimmable pas- food service equipment and car- tion/extinguishing system senger cabin windows rier boxes • Lord Corp: integrated APU • Raytheon (Collins – B/E Aero- • Donaldson Co: cabin air purifica- mounting space): seating, food and bever- tion system • Magellan Aerospace: steering as- age preparation and storage • Doncasters: turbine components sembly, landing gear torsion link equipment, oxygen systems for Hamilton Sundstrand APU assemblies, NLG drag brace as- • Raytheon (Collins – Hamilton • Eaton: couplings, hoses sembly Sundstrand): APS5000 APU, • FR-HiTemp: fuel pumps, valves • Marquez: thermoplastic air ducts electrical power generation and • Goodrich: cargo handling system, for personal service units start system, environmental con- electric brake system, proximity • McKechnie (Hartwell): crew es- trol system, remote power distri- cape door latching bution units, DC electric motor

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hydraulic pump subsystem, ram indication, high lift actuation sys- • Triumph Composite Systems: air turbine emergency power sys- tem, leading/trailing edge power ducting, metal parts, fittings, win- tem, nitrogen generating system drive unit dow assemblies, insulation, tub- • Raytheon (Collins – Kaiser Elec- • Safran (Labinal): electrical wir- ing, ECS ducting, floor panels troprecision): pilot controls (in- ing system, fiber optics, high • Triumph (Frisby): large cargo cluding wheel, column, rudder speed databus door actuation system (for Saab) pedals) • Safran (Messier-Bugatti): electric • Ultra Electronics: electro-thermal • Saab: high lift actuation systems brake system wing ice protection (for GE/Smiths Aerospace) • Securaplane: wireless emergency • Western Filter: hysraulic system • Securaplane: emergency lighting lighting system filters system • TAT Technologies: electrical • Zodiac (Air Cruisers): emergency • Smiths Aerospace: landing gear system cooling elements evacuation slides actuation system, nose gear steer- • Thermion: heater elements • Zodiac (ECE): primary onboard ing, brake control actuation and electrical distribution system • Zodiac (Monogram Systems): water and waste system

Specifications 787-8 787-9 787-10 Length overall: 186 ft (57 m) 206 ft (63 m) 224 ft (68 m) Height overall: 56 ft (17 m) same same Wing span: 197 ft (60 m) 204 ft (62 m) 197 ft (60 m) Max. T-O weight: 502,500 lb (228,000 kg) 557,000 lb (252,651 kg) 553,000 lb (250,836 kg) Max. range: 7,300 nm 7,600 nm 6,400 nm (11,800 km) Cruise speed: Mach 0.85 same same Passengers (3-class): 224-242 259-289 300-323

Costs 787 development was expected to Boeing’s 2020 list price for the although launch customers paid cost between $7 and $9 billion. 787-8 averages $248 million; 787-9 somewhat less. The -8 average real- About half of that will come from the prices average $293 million; 787-10 ized price is around $116-122 mil- supplier/partner base. In reality, cost prices average $338 million. Dis- lion, the -9 is around $140-145 mil- overruns boosted this to around $20- counting should bring those numbers lion, while the -10 is around $150- 25 billion. down to the $118-160 million range, 155 million.

Sales/Delivery Data Orders 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 787 52 179 99 259 59 24 25 45 38 177 41 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total 91 80 98 130 111 29 1,509

Deliveries 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total 787-8 3 46 65 104 71 35 26 10 10 5 375 787-9 — — — 10 64 102 110 120 113 36 555 787-10 — — — — — — — 15 34 12 61

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Order Book In 2020 Boeing ceased providing or- reliable. The totals, by variant, how- der books that were transparent and ever, are correct. The airline numbers are correct as of 2020.

User Version Ord/Del Note AerCap -9 30/7 Rolls-Royce/GE Aeromexico -8 2/2 General Electric Aeromexico -9 6/6 General Electric -8 3/— Rolls-Royce -8 2/2 Rolls-Royce -8 8/8 General Electric Air Canada -9 29/29 General Electric -9 15/14 Rolls-Royce -8 8/8 Rolls-Royce Air Europa -9 7/— Rolls-Royce /KLM -9 17/9 General Electric Air France/KLM -10 8/— General Electric -8 27/27 General Electric -9 12/12 Rolls-Royce Air Niugini -8 1/— Rolls-Royce -9 2/— ALAFCO -8 8/— General Electric ALC -9 27/18 General Electric/Rolls ALC -10 25/— General Electric All Nippon AW -8 36/36 Rolls-Royce All Nippon AW -9 44/30 Rolls-Royce All Nippon AW -10 3/1 Rolls-Royce -8 20/20 General Electric American Airlines -9 47/22 General Electric -9 9/— General Electric -8 13/13 Rolls-Royce Avianca -9 3/— Rolls-Royce Aviation Capital Group -9 5/5 Rolls-Royce Avolon -9 5/— -8 2/2 General Electric BOC Aviation Leasing -9 13/4 Rolls-Royce Bamboo AW -9 10/— Bank of Communications Leasing -9 2/2 General Electric Biman Bangladesh AL -8 4/4 General Electric Biman Bangladesh AL -9 2/2 General Electric Boeing Business Jets -8 7/6 General Electric/Rolls Boeing Business Jets -9 4/4 General Electric Boeing Capital -8 20/— General Electric Boeing Capital -9 7/— General Electric -8 12/12 Rolls-Royce British Airways -9 18/18 Rolls-Royce British Airways -10 12/2 Rolls-Royce China Development Bank -9 6/— China Eastern -9 10/10 General Electric China Southern -8 10/10 General Electric China Southern -9 9/9 General Electric CIT Leasing -8 4/4 General Electric

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CIT Leasing -9 14/9 General Electric/Rolls ECAir (Congo) -8 1/— Rolls-Royce Israel -8 3/3 Rolls-Royce El Al Israel -9 4/4 Rolls-Royce -9 30/— -8 16/16 General Electric/Rolls Etihad AW -9 41/30 General Electric Etihad AW -10 30/8 General Electric EVA Air -10 18/3 General Electric GECAS -9 2/2 General Electric GECAS -10 4/— General Electric -9 16/6 Rolls-Royce -8 10/10 General Electric Hainan Airlines -9 22/22 General Electric Hawaiian AL -9 5/— General Electric ILFC -8 23/23 Includes former Aercap ILFC -9 51/48 Includes former Aercap -8 29/25 General Electric Japan Airlines -9 20/19 General Electric -9 10/— Airline defunct Juneyao -9 4/4 General Electric Kenya AW -8 9/9 General Electric Korean Air -8 1/1 General Electric Korean Air -9 20/10 General Electric Korean Air -10 10/— General Electric LATAM -8 10/10 Rolls-Royce LATAM -9 16/7 Rolls-Royce LOT Polish Airlines -8 8/6 Rolls-Royce MG Aviation -9 4/4 Rolls-Royce Norwegian -8 3/3 Rolls-Royce Norwegian -9 13/8 Rolls-Royce -8 5/— -8 6/2 General Electric PrivatAir -8 1/1 Rolls-Royce -8 11/11 General Electric Qantas -9 14/8 General Electric -8 30/30 General Electric Qatar Airways -9 30/7 Republic of Iraq -8 10/— -8 5/5 General Electric Royal Air Maroc -9 4/4 General Electric Royal Brunei -8 5/4 Rolls-Royce -8 6/3 General Electric Ruili Airlines -9 6/— Saudi Arabian -9 8/6 General Electric -8 12/10 Rolls-Royce Scoot -9 10/9 Rolls-Royce -10 47/10 Rolls-Royce Tazania -8 1/— TUI Travel -8 13/13 General Electric TUI Travel -9 4/1 General Electric Turkish Airways -9 25/11 General Electric Unidentified Customers -8 7/— General Electric/Rolls Unidentified Customers -9 43/5 General Electric/TBD

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Unidentified Customers -10 14/— General Electric -8 12/12 General Electric United Airlines -9 38/30 General Electric United Airlines -10 14/13 General Electric Uzbekistan AW -8 7/5 General Electric Vietnam AL -9 8/8 General Electric -9 17/17 Rolls-Royce -9 6/— General Electric WestJet -9 10/3 GE Xiamen AL -8 6/6 General Electric Xiamen AL -9 6/6 General Electric

Total 787-8 414/374 Total 787-9 894/568 Total 787-10 186/61 Total 787 1,494/1,003 Reflects 16 cancellations in 2021

Program Overview History Middle Market Origins Mach 0.85 speed, and operating costs It also recruited Alenia and Vought After Boeing cancelled the 747 up to 20% lower than current genera- as major airframe partners, and nu- Major Derivative family proposal in tion jetliners in this class (767- merous potential subcontractors to the late 1990s, it turned its attention 300ER for the 787-8’s comparison, join in the design process. towards the middle market, the 767-300 for the 787-3). Originally 200/300-seat widebody range just studied as Project Yellowstone, the The Name Game below the 777 (see report). The first new plane was christened 7E7. The E in 7E7 stood for “efficient,” design Boeing focused on was the The year 2003 also saw numerous although Boeing also maintained that much-hyped Sonic Cruiser, an- announcements concerning produc- “e-enabled” and “environmental” nounced in March 2001. tion arrangements for the new air- were good words too. The final des- In December 2002 Boeing an- craft. The company announced that ignation, however, was not decided nounced that it was shelving its Sonic large structures would be delivered until January 2005, when the plane Cruiser proposal. For months, Boe- by air, in modified 747 freighters. It was re-designated 787. ing’s announcements concerning the also began a site selection process, As if the site selection process new Mach 0.95-0.98 fast jetliner had searching for the best place to build wasn’t splashy enough, Boeing also been couched in qualifiers and uncer- the plane. After surveying numerous teamed with AOL Time Warner to tainties, a far cry from early 2001, alternatives in the US, including create a competition to name the 7E7. when the concept was enthusiasti- , Texas, and Alabama, Some 280,000 votes were counted, cally promoted as the Next Big Boeing selected Everett, with the largest group reportedly pre- Thing. The Sonic Cruiser program (where all Boeing widebodies have ferring Global Cruiser. At the June was plagued from the start by doubts always been built) in December 2003 Air Show, however, Boe- about the technological feasibility. 2003. ing went with Dreamliner. And the relentless downward trend in For an alternative view of the site For an alternative view of the airline yields and profits, exacerbated selection process, please see the Au- naming process, please see the July by the , made a gust 2003 monthly newsletter in 2003 monthly newsletter at performance-driven jet look like a www.richardaboulafia.com. www.richardaboulafia.com. non-starter. However, Boeing later decided to To soften the impact of the shelv- establish a second production line in Production ing, Boeing also announced a new Charleston, South Carolina. In 2013, Some 65% of the 787 airframe program designed to create a conven- 14 of the 65 787s built were assem- workshare went to industrial partners tional, highly efficient new jetliner in bled in Charleston. and vendors, although this figure rose the 767-size class, arriving in 2008. It Also in 2003, Boeing announced after Boeing divested its Wichita fa- will feature a 777-style that it was recruiting Japan’s aero- cility, and then fell after the company (something the basic 767 never got), nautical heavy industries as partners.

World Military & Civil Aircraft Briefing ©Teal Group Corporation Boeing 787 Dreamliner Page 8 acquired Vought's workshare. Boe- into 2009, for a total of 109 aircraft switched their -3 orders to -8s, leav- ing’s goal is to retain responsibility through the end of 2009. ing the -3 without customers and with for only 15% of the 787’s assembly, The delay was largely blamed on little hope of being revived. In De- with the rest handled by partners. flight control software integration cember 2010 it was cancelled alto- Structures are delivered by modified and traveled work, the latter resulting gether. 747-400 freighters, designated Large partly from an industry-wide fastener The new schedule called for first Cargo Freighters (LCFs). The first shortage. By the end of the month, deliveries (still to ANA) in Novem- LCF flew in September 2006. program manager Mike Bair was re- ber 2010 (see below). placed with Pat Shanahan, formerly ANA Provides Launch Order with Boeing’s IDS unit. Fire, And Another Delay In April 2004 In December another announce- In November 2010 a 787 on a test placed the 787 launch order. The Jap- ment shifted the first flight until flight suffered an onboard fire. While anese carrier ordered 50 787s, com- around the end of the second quarter non-fatal, it caused the program prising a mix of short-range 787-3s of 2008. Certification and first deliv- schedule to slip since the test fleet and long-range 787-8s. The first de- eries were shifted to early 2009. was grounded until a fix was found. livery will be a –8, followed by a –3 In March 2008 Boeing also an- Flight tests resumed in December, af- five to six months later. Anticipated nounced that additional design work ter a six-week hiatus. The new plan delivery rate to ANA is eight per was necessary to strengthen the com- called for first deliveries in July year. posite center wing box. 2011. In April 2008 Boeing announced ATO another six-month delay, with first Certification and EIS On December 15, 2003, Boeing’s deliveries then scheduled for the The 787 was certified by the FAA board authorized Boeing Commer- third quarter of 2009. Boeing offi- in August 2011. The first one was de- cial Airplanes to offer the 787 for cials said this schedule was relatively livered in September. In October the sale to airlines. In September 2005 conservative. Anticipated 2009 de- 787 entered service with ANA. the 787’s firm configuration was an- liveries were reduced to 25 aircraft. The GE-powered version was cer- nounced. This was followed by yet another tified in March 2012. The first 787 test aircraft was to delay, due in part to the IAM strike in fly in mid-2007. Anticipated in-ser- the third quarter of 2008. In Decem- Certification Pulled After vice date was mid-2008. As of Sep- ber 2008 Boeing released a new Several Battery-Related tember 2007, there were two 787s on schedule. The 787 was to fly in the Incidents the assembly line—the first second quarter of 2009, with first de- In 2013 the 787 became the third aircraft, and one static test plane. liveries scheduled for the first quarter jetliner in history to have its commer- of 2010. cial certification temporarily re- Program Restructured, voked. The entire fleet was grounded Followed by More Trouble First Flight, Program Changes, in January after lithium-ion batteries In September and October 2007 Another Schedule aboard two planes overheated, caus- Boeing made two significant an- In December 2009 the 787 made ing one of them to catch fire. The bat- nouncements concerning the 787 its successful first flight. By the end tery on a Japan Airlines 787 caught program. These were followed by ad- of the year, Boeing had assembled 16 fire after landing in , while the ditional bad news. 787s, including two ground test air- battery on an All Nippon Airways In September 2007 the company craft, six flight test aircraft (two of 787 began producing smoke while in announced a first flight slip from which were flying), and eight pro- flight out of Japan, forcing an emer- September to either November or duction aircraft. gency landing. December. However, the May 2008 This was followed by a Boeing Boeing began working on a solu- in-service date was retained, calling announcement that it would establish tion while the cause was under inves- for a new aggressive 5- to 6-month a second production line, in Charles- tigation. It came up with a battery cell flight test schedule. Inevitably, the ton, South Carolina. This line was isolation and containment system. news in October was worse. The scheduled to deliver its first 787-8 in Ethiopian was the first airline to re- company announced a significant re- the first quarter of 2012, but the first turn the 787 to service, in April 2013; structuring, with service entry de- SC-built plane flew in May 2012. the other operators followed by May. layed until November or December Another change has been the 2008. All except three planned 2008 death of the -3 variant. In 2009 the aircraft deliveries would be shifted two Japanese airline customers

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Variants Original Plans to launch customer Air New Zealand, 787-10 include Air Lease Corp. (30), Boeing originally planned four took place in July 2014. It was GECAS (10) IAG/British Airways 787 versions. The base version, a FAA/EASA certified in June 2014. (12), Singapore (30), and United long-range 224-242 seat design, has In March 2006 Boeing announced (20). The -10 is a relatively simple been designated the 787-8. Another a -10 version. This simple stretch will stretch of the -9, with 95% common- was an SR (Short-Range) version de- seat 310 with a 6,500-7,000 nmi ality. signed to replace the 757, with trans- range and will enter service in 2012. The 787-10 flies up to 7,000 n m con range and later designated 787-3. It will basically replace the 777- (12,964 km) with 300-330 passen- It was to seat 296 in two classes. A 200ER in Boeing’s product line. gers. The first -10, with Rolls-Royce 787-STR (Stretch) version will carry Also, Boeing offers a VIP version. engines, was rolled out in February 259-289 passengers (in three classes) This has been ordered by several cus- 2017. Final assembly and flight tests over very long range and is now des- tomers in both -8 and -9 configura- of the 787-10 began in 2017. The sec- ignated 787-9. (See Specifications, tion. Order details can be found in the ond of three test aircraft, the first with above.) Order Book under Boeing Business GE engines, flew in May 2017. Until the delays, the –3 Short Jets. The first production -10 rolled out Range and –8 Baseline version were in October 2017. The FAA awarded both expected to arrive in 2008. The Boeing Launches 787-10 the -10 an amended in –9 stretch variant was to be delivered At the June 2013 January 2018. Deliveries began in in late 2010, but rollout was delayed Boeing launched the long-awaited - March 2018, with Singapore as until September 2013. First delivery, 10 variant. First commitments for the launch user.

Teal Group Evaluation Category Killer… The 787’s success shows that least a 40% chance that it dies after For the first time in history, a new building a better mousetrap can make around 200 planes – the MD-11 of its Boeing jetliner had extremely serious a difference. The 787 is a very ambi- time. development and manufacturing tious product that’s focused on the With our baseline forecast (the problems. The mantra of “We’re go- most active market segment. This is A330neo survives), we estimate de- ing to be Eleven for Eleven” has the exact opposite of the A380, a rel- mand at around 3,000 planes over the given way to “We’re marginally bet- atively low-tech plane focused on a program’s first 25 years. This is a ter than …maybe.” Manage- shrinking segment. good, and even necessary thing for ment placed entirely too much trust It’s not just the A300/310/767 re- Boeing, because the company de- in the design, integration, and finan- placement market, which in itself is ferred $28 billion worth of produc- cial capabilities of its risk-sharing big. It’s route fragmentation, which tion costs to future production air- partners. This compounded the prob- is happening as fast as deregulation, craft. The only positive is that as of lems inherent in a very aggressive ETOPS, and other factors allow. 2016 recurring losses had stopped, up-front program schedule. These Technology, in the form of new long- and Boeing is now booking a respect- problems were worsened by hubris range with low seat mile able profit on each plane. But again, and an atmosphere of secrecy. costs, is stimulating this fragmenta- there’s still well over $20 billion in New management at BCA helped tion. Even in Asia, average aircraft deferred costs to be paid back. the program turn the corner. Then sizes are shrinking. management changed again, at the However, Airbus is now a much …In A Twin Aisle Killer Market very worst moment. The plane's bat- smarter company than it was when it Unfortunately, the broader market tery-related glitches resulted in a launched the A380. Execution on the has been heavily impacted by the grounding. Boeing's fix involved A350XWB has been very good, even COVID-19 pandemic, particularly containing the problem, but without if the ramp was much slower than ex- for twin aisles. This year, and until truly understanding it. pected. 2023, there’s the serious problem of Despite this, the program is now This brings us back to the the worst airline traffic drop in his- in positive territory (up until the A330neo, a great idea that seems to tory. And for some time, there’s the Covid pandemic, about which more be disappointing, in terms of perfor- accelerated secular shift away from in a moment). This remains a trans- mance and market reaction. Right twin aisle jets. formational product. now, we assume it survives as a re- The 787 may be the most popular, spectable program. But there’s at and downturn-resistant twin aisle;

World Military & Civil Aircraft Briefing ©Teal Group Corporation Boeing 787 Dreamliner Page 10 but it still faces serious headwinds. Something To Remember In 100 built but undelivered planes And through the decade, the big These Troubled Times which will be delivered, probably numbers will go to the A321neo, un- We haven’t had to put this caveat through 2023. Thus, actual produc- less Boeing does a mid-market single in our reports for decades, but just to tion for the next three years will be aisle of its own. clarify, our numbers are for deliver- somewhat lower than in our forecast. ies, not production. There are about

Production Forecast User (Variant) Through 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Total Boeing Commercial Airplanes All users (787-8*) 375 3 3 4 2 2 2 — — — — 391 All users (787-9) 555 39 57 54 56 56 60 72 74 80 80 1,183 All users (787-10) 61 2 10 12 14 16 18 22 28 40 40 263

Total* 991 44 70 70 72 74 80 94 102 120 120 1,837

*Excludes six test aircraft.

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