Early Round Bluffing in Poker Author(s): California Jack Cassidy Source: The American Mathematical Monthly, Vol. 122, No. 8 (October 2015), pp. 726-744 Published by: Mathematical Association of America Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.4169/amer.math.monthly.122.8.726 Accessed: 23-12-2015 19:20 UTC Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/page/ info/about/policies/terms.jsp JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact
[email protected]. Mathematical Association of America is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The American Mathematical Monthly. http://www.jstor.org This content downloaded from 128.32.135.128 on Wed, 23 Dec 2015 19:20:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Early Round Bluffing in Poker California Jack Cassidy Abstract. Using a simplified form of the Von Neumann and Morgenstern poker calculations, the author explores the effect of hand volatility on bluffing strategy, and shows that one should never bluff in the first round of Texas Hold’Em. 1. INTRODUCTION. The phrase “the mathematics of bluffing” often brings a puzzled response from nonmathematicians. “Isn’t that an oxymoron? Bluffing is psy- chological,” they might say, or, “Bluffing doesn’t work in online poker.