CB Asante Samuel Jr., Florida State

2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

MARCH 1, 2021

NFL Draft 2021 Scouting Report: CB Asante Samuel Jr., Florida State

*CB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update info as it becomes available.

NFL Draft 2021 Scouting Report: CB Asante Samuel Jr., Florida State

*CB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update info as it becomes available.

I came into this study fearing that the mainstream approach to Samuel Jr. would be: “Hey, I know that name…I remember his dad being pretty good.” Based on that, plus positive reports on him otherwise…it’s safe harbor for analysts to be ‘pro’ Samuel Jr. for the 2021 NFL Draft – with some even pushing him into the top three CB discussion.

After conducting my study, I’m conflicted…but mostly ‘pro’ Samuel.

For sure, Samuel Jr. is a legit NFL CB talent. He will be playing in the NFL. He has the athleticism, enough coverage skills, and despite him being a little smaller than you prefer (5’10”/180+)…he holds his own.

But I think I may see a downside which gives me worries me on just HOW good he is. He has the same positive/negative as Caleb Farley – both are fantastic forward and backwards movement cover corners. Hard to beat deep and if you’re too slow or sloppy on a stop route timing throw, they are going to break forward at warp speed and make the play or pick six you.

The downside with Farley and Samuel Jr., that I can see, is that they are not as great going east-west on coverage…they can get shook by a cutting left-right receiver.

With Farley, I see him going backward/forward easily but when a receiver cuts, Farley is slow to get his body going after them…and I see receivers getting open with space on Farley – though of course they don’t show that moment on the 2-3-4 play highlight reel loop they shove down your throat over and over and over. Instead, they show Farley making his great break on the ball play and everyone goes nuts and proclaims him great. There’s more to coverage than up and down. Left and right movement/coverage is critical in the NFL, and Farley isn’t necessarily an ace at that.

Samuel Jr. has a different problem. I see Samuel Jr. playing way off receivers and wanting to play that up-and-down game with them. He’s so far off the receiver, typically, because he can close fast…or he’s so worried about getting beaten deep that he allows a ton of space in front of him. I tried to find plays of a receiver breaking left or right on him right away when he was so far back…or when he was up tight,

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2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

MARCH 1, 2021

but (very oddly) all receivers seemed to ever do against him (in the key games I watched him play) was try and go deep on him. Samuel Jr. plays everyone deep and then they run a deep route on him, and then I imagine the QB wonders why it’s covered/not open and thus there are barely any passes thrown against Samuel Jr. Teams could’ve killed him with bubble screens and slants, in my opinion, but they never tried.

When you see YouTube tape of Samuel Jr. it is against the likes of Pitt and Georgia Tech. His games against Florida (2019) or Clemson (2019) is not out there cut up…games where you can see some signs of Samuel Jr. getting beaten some because he plays way too far off the ball. I don’t know if it is coincidence or (more likely) the new era of unfavorable/not glowing tape being removed ‘mysteriously’ on prospects (I’ll write about that more in the days to come).

Samuel Jr. is not terrible in east-west coverage, but he is susceptible to getting beaten by the receiver a lot…because he plays too far off and doesn’t react as well to the in cuts. Whereas you’ll see an Aaron Robinson or Jaycee Horn get up on receivers and mirror/blanket them. Samuel Jr. tends to lay back protecting deep and trying to bait a sloppy throw in front of him he can break on…and that’s not real NFL ball for a cover corner. It’s only half the battle.

Samuel has the tools. He has the up-and-back speed. He’s a little undersized but he’s pretty tenacious/confident in coverage (deep). He has NFL things…just not NFL 1st-round, top 3 cornerback things (to me). There should be as many questions as there are things to laud with Samuel Jr., but analysis of CB prospects is usually a fawn-fest and cherrypicked great moments to create fanboy fiction written about this superhero…that was some of the problem with Jeff Okudah – analysts can talk themselves into anything when it’s a player from a respected school and you watch 3-4 cherrypicked highlight plays over and over and over. Samuel Jr. has that heat/respect among the draft community, but I’m not so sure it’s warranted.

Samuel Jr. has a size that makes you think ‘slot corner’ but his college play was NEVER anything like a slot corner mindset/ability. I’m sure a D-C will think they can just draft him and mold him, and maybe they can, but I think it’s more risk than sure thing – especially if you’re going to have to pay a big draft price for him.

Samuel Jr. is a legit NFL prospect, but one with questions/things to debate or worry about. Anyone who rates/ranks Samuel Jr. ahead of Central Florida CB Aaron Robinson should be banned from CB analysis ever again. Samuel Jr. is not better than Robinson, nor is Samuel Jr. a top 3 CB prospect for this draft…though he’s certainly draftable and there is hope with him.

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2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

MARCH 1, 2021

Asante Samuel Jr., Through the Lens of Our CB Scouting Algorithm:

-- 4 career INTs…on four passes thrown right to him, mostly as he was just standing there/floating in zone coverage. Samuel is a good zone cover guy prospect.

-- Samuel will put his nose into the run game/will make tackles…he’s not as frail or disinterested in tackling as Caleb Farley or Jaycee Horn were in college.

-- #1 in 2019 in the ACC in passes defended, #11 all-time in the ACC in PDs.

-- Was not a part of the return game in college.

Pro Day Estimates:

5’10”/180+…if he comes in under 5’10” then he falls to the 2nd-round for sure.

4.4s 40-time, 7.0 +/- three-cone

The Historical CB Prospects to Whom Asante Samuel Jr. Most Compares Within Our System:

Darryl Roberts is a decent comp for Samuel Jr. – long-time NFL corner, had a few good games/seasons but nothing overly special. Was useful but not a star in the NFL. That’s my feel on Samuel Jr., but with some upside hopes that he can develop his short game and possible be a legit slot corner and really pay off for an NFL team.

CB Last First Draft College H H W Cover Speed Agility Tackle Grade Yr Rating Metrics Metric Metric 7.235 Samuel Jr. Asante 2021 Florida St 5 10.0 184 7.78 7.82 5.73 6.19 6.736 Sensabaugh Coty 2012 Clemson 5 11.2 189 7.55 5.81 9.95 5.89 8.380 Roberts Darryl 2015 Marshall 5 11.0 187 8.83 6.15 8.55 8.77 6.056 Hughes Brandon 2009 Oregon St 5 10.4 182 7.67 9.56 5.21 4.96 5.339 Scott Josiah 2020 Michigan St. 5 9.2 185 6.10 8.99 6.33 6.78 4.120 Chancellor Chris 2010 Clemson 5 9.1 177 5.08 4.88 6.40 4.80

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2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

MARCH 1, 2021

*The ratings are based on a 1–10 rating scale, but a prospect can score over 10.0+ and less than 0.0 OVERALL RATING -- We merge the data from physical measurables, skill times/counts from the NFL Combine/Pro Days, with college performance data available on pass coverage/tackles, etc. and grade it compared to our database history of all college CBs, with a focus on which CBs went on to be good- great-elite in the NFL. We found characteristics/data points that the successful NFL CBs had in common in college, that most other CB prospects could not match/achieve. Scoring with a rating over a 7.00+ in our system is where we start to take a CB prospect more seriously. Most of the future NFL successful college CBs scored 8.00+, and most of the NFL superior CBs pushed scores more in the 9.00+ levels...and future NFL busts will sneak in there from time to time. 10.00+ is where most of the elite NFL CBs tend to score in our system analysis. COVERAGE -- A combination of on-field data/performance and physical profile data SPEED -- Measurables from a perspective of straight-line speed, burst, etc. AGILITY -- Measurables for lateral movements, quick cuts, body type, speed, etc. POWER -- A look at physical size, tackling productivity in college, other physical measurables. One of the side benefits/intentions here, is to see which CBs may be more of a model for a conversion to playing safety successfully in the NFL. Also denotes CBs who are more physical/will have higher tackle totals...over pure speed/coverage CBs.

2021 NFL Draft Outlook:

I see mostly early 2nd-round projections on Samuel Jr., some late 1st-round. I’m going to guess his size and the gap in his game to be converted to a legit slot guy is going to hold him out of the 1st-round…but his ‘name’ might sneak him into the 1st-round.

If I were an NFL GM, I’d be looking at Samuel Jr. going in the same range as Aaron Robinson…and then to me that’s a hands down choice to go with ARob. I like Samuel Jr., I know he can exist in the NFL and has an upside to learn/improve – I just don’t want to pay an inflated price for it.

NFL Outlook:

Should be an NFL contributor year one, and then becomes a starter in year two or three. If he gets rushed out there into a prominent role or pushed into the slot ahead of his time…he could really struggle/draw criticism and lose a lot of momentum as a player.

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2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

MARCH 1, 2021

I think Samuel Jr. will be a solid hand in the NFL, but never live up to the hype…but there exists potential that he shapes his game and becomes a legit starting corner. Never a Pro Bowl level one, but solid enough.

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Signature______Date______3/1/2021

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