New Thames Crossing East of Reading Forecasting Report

NEW THAMES CROSSING EAST OF READING FORECASTING REPORT

PUBLIC MAY 2017

NEW THAMES CROSSING EAST OF READING

FORECASTING REPORT Wokingham Borough Council

Confidential

Project no: 70007417 Date: May 2017

WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Mountbatten House Basing View Basingstoke RG21 4HJ

Tel: +44 (0)1256 318800 Fax: +44 (0)1256 318700 www.wsp-pb.com

QUALITY MANAGEMENT

ISSUE/REVISION FIRST ISSUE REVISION 1 REVISION 2 REVISION 3

Remarks Final Draft Final - Base year screenline and journey time values have been updated - Extra figures have been included showing traffic flows in the south of South Oxfordshire

Date February 2017 May 2017

Prepared by Diana Murungi Bence Verebelyi Nadia Lyubimova Diana Murungi Bence Verebelyi Ricardo Situ Carrolo

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Checked by Nadia Lyubimova Nadia Lyubimova

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Authorised by Craig Drennan Craig Drennan

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Project number 70007417 70007417

Report number 003 003

File reference S:\70007417 - 3rd Thames Crossing in Reading_SOBC\C Documents\Reports\Forecast report\170428 New Thames Crossing Forecasting Report.docx

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION ...... 8

2 FORECASTING APPROACH...... 11

3 FORECAST RESULTS ...... 18

4 SUMMARY...... 22

New Thames Crossing East of Reading WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Wokingham Borough Council Project No 70007417 Confidential May 2017 iii

TABLES

TABLE 2-1: TEMPRO PLANNING PROJECTIONS ...... 12 TABLE 2-2: TEMPRO GROWTH IN CAR DRIVER TRIP ENDS ...... 12 TABLE 2-3: TEMPRO GROWTH IN PUBLIC TRANSPORT TRIP ENDS ...... 12 TABLE 2-4: NATIONAL ROAD TRAFFIC FORECAST GROWTH FACTORS ..... 12 TABLE 2-5: CAR DRIVER TRIP MATRIX TOTALS SUMMARY (INTER- ZONAL ONLY), VEHICLES ...... 12 TABLE 2-6: PUBLIC TRANSPORT TRIP MATRIX TOTALS SUMMARY (INTER-ZONAL ONLY), PASSENGERS...... 13 TABLE 3-1 TOTAL TRAFFIC FLOW ON THE NEW CROSSING ...... 18 TABLE 3-2 HGV FLOW ON THE NEW CROSSING ...... 18 TABLE 3-3 TRAFFIC FLOW CHANGES ON THE A3290 BETWEEN WINNERSH CROSSROADS AND TVP ROUNDABOUT ...... 19 TABLE 4-1 FLOW CHANGES ACROSS SELECTED SCREENLINES. OPTION 1 ...... 1 TABLE 4-2 FLOW CHANGES ACROSS SELECTED SCREENLINES. OPTION 2 ...... 2 TABLE 4-3 FLOW CHANGES ACROSS SELECTED SCREENLINES. OPTION 3 ...... 3 TABLE 4-4 HGV FLOW CHANGES ACROSS SELECTED SCREENLINES. OPTION 1 ...... 4 TABLE 4-5 HGV FLOW CHANGES ACROSS SELECTED SCREENLINES. OPTION 2 ...... 5 TABLE 4-6 HGV FLOW CHANGES ACROSS SELECTED SCREENLINES. OPTION 3 ...... 6 TABLE 4-7 JOURNEY TIME CHANGES ACROSS SELECTED JOURNEY TIME ROUTES, MINUTES. OPTION 1 ...... 1 TABLE 4-8 JOURNEY TIME CHANGES ACROSS SELECTED JOURNEY TIME ROUTES, MINUTES. OPTION 2 ...... 2 TABLE 4-9 JOURNEY TIME CHANGES ACROSS SELECTED JOURNEY TIME ROUTES, MINUTES. OPTION 3 ...... 4

FIGURES

FIGURE 1-1 LOCATION OF THE NEW THAMES CROSSING EAST OF READING...... 8 FIGURE 2-1 A4155 HENLEY RD/ CAVERSHAM PARK RD / NEW CROSSING JUNCTION LAYOUT ...... 14 FIGURE 2-2 THAMES VALLEY PARK DRIVE / NEW CROSSING JUNCTION LAYOUT ...... 14 FIGURE 2-3 POSSIBLE BUS ROUTES WITH THE NEW CROSSING ...... 17 FIGURE 3-1 SELECTED SCREENLINES FOR TRAFFIC FLOW ANALYSIS ...... 19 FIGURE 3-2 JOURNEY TIME ROUTES ...... 21 FIGURE 4-1 2015 AM PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 1 ...... 26

New Thames Crossing East of Reading WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Wokingham Borough Council Project No 70007417 Confidential May 2017 iv

FIGURE 4-2 2015 AM PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 2 ...... 27 FIGURE 4-3 2015 AM PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 3 ...... 28 FIGURE 4-4 2015 INTER PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 1 ...... 29 FIGURE 4-5 2015 INTER PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 2 ...... 30 FIGURE 4-6 2015 INTER PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 3 ...... 31 FIGURE 4-7 2015 PM PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 1 ...... 32 FIGURE 4-8 2015 PM PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 2 ...... 33 FIGURE 4-9 2015 PM PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 3 ...... 34 FIGURE 4-10 2015 AM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1 ...... 35 FIGURE 4-11 2015 AM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2 ...... 36 FIGURE 4-12 2015 AM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3 ...... 37 FIGURE 4-13 2015 INTER PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1 ...... 38 FIGURE 4-14 2015 INTER PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2 ...... 39 FIGURE 4-15 2015 INTER PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3 ...... 40 FIGURE 4-16 2015 PM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1 ...... 41 FIGURE 4-17 2015 PM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2 ...... 42 FIGURE 4-18 2015 PM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3 ...... 43 FIGURE 4-19 OPTION 1. 2026 AM PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 1 ...... 46 FIGURE 4-20 OPTION 1. 2026 AM PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 2 ...... 47 FIGURE 4-21 OPTION 1. 2026 AM PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 3 ...... 48 FIGURE 4-22 OPTION 1. 2026 INTER PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 1 ...... 49 FIGURE 4-23 OPTION 1. 2026 INTER PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 2 ...... 50 FIGURE 4-24 OPTION 1. 2026 INTER PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 3 ...... 51 FIGURE 4-25 OPTION 1. 2026 PM PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 1 ...... 52 FIGURE 4-26 OPTION 1. 2026 PM PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 2 ...... 53 FIGURE 4-27 OPTION 1. 2026 PM PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 3 ...... 54 FIGURE 4-28 OPTION 1. 2026 AM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 1 ...... 55 FIGURE 4-29 OPTION 1. 2026 AM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 2 ...... 56 FIGURE 4-30 OPTION 1. 2026 AM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 3 ...... 57 FIGURE 4-31 OPTION 1. 2026 INTER PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 1 ...... 58 FIGURE 4-32 OPTION 1. 2026 INTER PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 2 ...... 59 FIGURE 4-33 OPTION 1. 2026 INTER PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 3 ...... 60 FIGURE 4-34 OPTION 1. 2026 PM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 1 ...... 61 FIGURE 4-35 OPTION 1. 2026 PM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 2 ...... 62 FIGURE 4-36 OPTION 1. 2026 PM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 3 ...... 63 FIGURE 4-37 OPTION 1. 2026 AM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1 ...... 64 FIGURE 4-38 OPTION 1. 2026 AM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2 ...... 65 FIGURE 4-39 OPTION 1. 2026 AM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3 ...... 66

WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff New Thames Crossing East of Reading Project No 70007417 Wokingham Borough Council May 2017 Confidential v

FIGURE 4-40 OPTION 1. 2026 INTER PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1...... 67 FIGURE 4-41 OPTION 1. 2026 INTER PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2...... 68 FIGURE 4-42 OPTION 1. 2026 INTER PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3...... 69 FIGURE 4-43 OPTION 1. 2026 PM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1 ...... 70 FIGURE 4-44 OPTION 1. 2026 PM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2 ...... 71 FIGURE 4-45 OPTION 1. 2026 PM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3 ...... 72 FIGURE 4-46 OPTION 1. 2026 AM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1...... 73 FIGURE 4-47 OPTION 1. 2026 AM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2...... 74 FIGURE 4-48 OPTION 1. 2026 AM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3...... 75 FIGURE 4-49 OPTION 1. 2026 INTER PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1...... 76 FIGURE 4-50 OPTION 1. 2026 INTER PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2...... 77 FIGURE 4-51 OPTION 1. 2026 INTER PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3...... 78 FIGURE 4-52 OPTION 1. 2026 PM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1...... 79 FIGURE 4-53 OPTION 1. 2026 PM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2...... 80 FIGURE 4-54 OPTION 1. 2026 PM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3...... 81 FIGURE 4-55 OPTION 2. 2026 AM PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 1 ...... 84 FIGURE 4-56 OPTION 2. 2026 AM PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 2 ...... 85 FIGURE 4-57 OPTION 2. 2026 AM PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 3 ...... 86 FIGURE 4-58 OPTION 2. 2026 INTER PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 1 ...... 87 FIGURE 4-59 OPTION 2. 2026 INTER PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 2 ...... 88 FIGURE 4-60 OPTION 2. 2026 INTER PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 3 ...... 89 FIGURE 4-61 OPTION 2. 2026 PM PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 1 ...... 90 FIGURE 4-62 OPTION 2. 2026 PM PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 2 ...... 91 FIGURE 4-63 OPTION 2. 2026 PM PEAK. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 3 ...... 92 FIGURE 4-64 OPTION 2. 2026 AM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 1 ...... 93 FIGURE 4-65 OPTION 2. 2026 AM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 2 ...... 94 FIGURE 4-66 OPTION 2. 2026 AM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 3 ...... 95 FIGURE 4-67 OPTION 2. 2026 INTER PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 1 ...... 96 FIGURE 4-68 OPTION 2. 2026 INTER PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 2 ...... 97 FIGURE 4-69 OPTION 2. 2026 INTER PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 3 ...... 98 FIGURE 4-70 OPTION 2. 2026 PM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 1 ...... 99 FIGURE 4-71 OPTION 2. 2026 PM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 2 ...... 100

New Thames Crossing East of Reading WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Wokingham Borough Council Project No 70007417 Confidential May 2017 vi

FIGURE 4-72 OPTION 2. 2026 PM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. TOTAL TRAFFIC. EXTENT 3 ...... 101 FIGURE 4-73 OPTION 2. 2026 AM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1 ...... 102 FIGURE 4-74 OPTION 2. 2026 AM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2 ...... 103 FIGURE 4-75 OPTION 2. 2026 AM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3 ...... 104 FIGURE 4-76 OPTION 2. 2026 INTER PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1...... 105 FIGURE 4-77 OPTION 2. 2026 INTER PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2...... 106 FIGURE 4-78 OPTION 2. 2026 INTER PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3...... 107 FIGURE 4-79 OPTION 2. 2026 PM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1 ...... 108 FIGURE 4-80 OPTION 2. 2026 PM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2 ...... 109 FIGURE 4-81 OPTION 2. 2026 PM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3 ...... 110 FIGURE 4-82 OPTION 2. 2026 AM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1...... 111 FIGURE 4-83 OPTION 2. 2026 AM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2...... 112 FIGURE 4-84 OPTION 2. 2026 AM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3...... 113 FIGURE 4-85 OPTION 2. 2026 INTER PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1...... 114 FIGURE 4-86 OPTION 2. 2026 INTER PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2...... 115 FIGURE 4-87 OPTION 2. 2026 INTER PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3...... 116 FIGURE 4-88 OPTION 2. 2026 PM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1...... 117 FIGURE 4-89 OPTION 2. 2026 PM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2...... 118 FIGURE 4-90 OPTION 2. 2026 PM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3...... 119 FIGURE 4-91 OPTION 3. 2026 AM PEAK. EXTENT 1...... 122 FIGURE 4-92 OPTION 3. 2026 AM PEAK. EXTENT 2...... 123 FIGURE 4-93 OPTION 3. 2026 AM PEAK. EXTENT 3...... 124 FIGURE 4-94 OPTION 3. 2026 INTER PEAK. EXTENT 1 ...... 125 FIGURE 4-95 OPTION 3. 2026 INTER PEAK. EXTENT 2 ...... 126 FIGURE 4-96 OPTION 3. 2026 INTER PEAK. EXTENT 3 ...... 127 FIGURE 4-97 OPTION 3. 2026 PM PEAK. EXTENT 1...... 128 FIGURE 4-98 OPTION 3. 2026 PM PEAK. EXTENT 2...... 129 FIGURE 4-99 OPTION 3. 2026 PM PEAK. EXTENT 3...... 130 FIGURE 4-100 OPTION 3. 2026 AM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. EXTENT 1 ...... 131 FIGURE 4-101 OPTION 3. 2026 AM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. EXTENT 2 ...... 132 FIGURE 4-102 OPTION 3. 2026 AM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. EXTENT 3 ...... 133 FIGURE 4-103 OPTION 3. 2026 INTER PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. EXTENT 1 ...... 134 FIGURE 4-104 OPTION 3. 2026 INTER PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. EXTENT 2 ...... 135

WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff New Thames Crossing East of Reading Project No 70007417 Wokingham Borough Council May 2017 Confidential vii

FIGURE 4-105 OPTION 3. 2026 INTER PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. EXTENT 3 ...... 136 FIGURE 4-106 OPTION 3. 2026 PM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. EXTENT 1 ...... 137 FIGURE 4-107 OPTION 3. 2026 PM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. EXTENT 2 ...... 138 FIGURE 4-108 OPTION 3. 2026 PM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. EXTENT 3 ...... 139 FIGURE 4-109 OPTION 3. 2026 AM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1 ...... 140 FIGURE 4-110 OPTION 3. 2026 AM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2 ...... 141 FIGURE 4-111 OPTION 3. 2026 AM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3 ...... 142 FIGURE 4-112 OPTION 3. 2026 INTER PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1...... 143 FIGURE 4-113 OPTION 3. 2026 INTER PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2...... 144 FIGURE 4-114 OPTION 3. 2026 INTER PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3...... 145 FIGURE 4-115 OPTION 3. 2026 PM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1 ...... 146 FIGURE 4-116 OPTION 3. 2026 PM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2 ...... 147 FIGURE 4-117 OPTION 3. 2026 PM PEAK. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3 ...... 148 FIGURE 4-118 OPTION 3. 2026 AM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1...... 149 FIGURE 4-119 OPTION 3. 2026 AM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2...... 150 FIGURE 4-120 OPTION 3. 2026 AM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3...... 151 FIGURE 4-121 OPTION 3. 2026 INTER PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1...... 152 FIGURE 4-122 OPTION 3. 2026 INTER PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2...... 153 FIGURE 4-123 OPTION 3. 2026 INTER PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3...... 154 FIGURE 4-124 OPTION 3. 2026 PM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 1...... 155 FIGURE 4-125 OPTION 3. 2026 PM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 2...... 156 FIGURE 4-126 OPTION 3. 2026 PM PEAK. ‘WITH THE SCHEME’ MINUS ‘WITHOUT THE SCHEME’. HGV ONLY. EXTENT 3...... 157

APPENDICES

APPENDIX A 2015 TRAFFIC FLOWS, VEHICLES APPENDIX B 2026 OPTION 1 TRAFFIC FLOWS, VEHICLE APPENDIX C 2026 OPTION 2 TRAFFIC FLOWS, VEHICLES APPENDIX D 2026 OPTION 3 TRAFFIC FLOWS, VEHICLES APPENDIX E SCREENLINE FLOW, VEHICLES APPENDIX F JOURNEY TIME ANALYSIS

New Thames Crossing East of Reading WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Wokingham Borough Council Project No 70007417 Confidential May 2017 8

1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 PROJECT BACKGROUND

1.1.1 WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff was commissioned by Wokingham Borough Council (WBC) to provide support in the development of the Strategic Outline Business Case (SOBC)1 and scheme details for the New Thames Crossing East of Reading. The scheme aims to reduce congestion in the town centre.

1.1.2 The New Thames River Crossing is proposed on the east side of Reading town centre, linking A4155 Henley Road/Caversham Park Road junction (via Caversham Lakes access road) north of the river, with Thames Valley Park roundabout south of the river. The proposed location is shown on Figure 1-1, together with the location of Caversham, Reading and Sonning Bridges.

SONNING BRIDGE

NEW CROSSING

CAVERSHAM BRIDGE

READING BRIDGE

Figure 1-1 Location of the New Thames Crossing East of Reading

1 “New Thames Crossing East of Reading. Strategic Outline Business Case”, February 2017

WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff New Thames Crossing East of Reading Project No 70007417 Wokingham Borough Council

1.2 OPTIONS ASSESSED

1.2.1 The following three New Crossing options have been considered in the SOBC:

Cars - £2

LGV - £3

HGV - £6 Æ Option 3: a public transport package option, which assumes a dual four-lane carriageway crossing (two lanes each way with one lane dedicated to buses only), conversion of one of the existing southbound lanes to a tidal flow bus lane on Reading Bridge, Reading Mass Rapid Transit route and P&R to north Reading. 1.3 WSTM4 - EVIDENCE BASE

1.3.1 The Wokingham Strategic Transport Model 4 (WSTM4) has been used as the basis for the scheme assessment.

1.3.2 The base year of the WSTM4 is 2015 and the forecasts were completed for 2026.

1.3.3 The models have been developed to represent average weekday AM peak hour (08:00 - 09:00), Inter peak hour (average 10:00 – 16:00) and PM peak hour (17:00 - 18:00).

1.3.4 WSTM4 consists of the following sub-models:

Æ Highway model Æ Public Transport (PT) model Æ Variable Demand Model (VDM).

1.3.5 The WSTM4 fully modelled area is bounded by the M40 in the north, by the M25 in the east, by the M3 in the south and by the A339 and A34 in the west. The area has been chosen to build a traffic model that covers a sufficient area to accurately model the reassignment and redistribution effects that are likely to be produced by the New Crossing.

1.3.6 The model development has followed the guidance provided in the DfT’s TAG with the base year model validated to a high degree of accuracy. The model development is fully described within the following documents:

Æ WSTM4. Data Collection Report, February 2017 Æ WSTM4. Local Model Validation Report, February 2017.

1.3.7 The base year model formed the basis for the forecast models detailed within this report. Forecast models were built for 2026, representing the proposed opening year for the New Crossing. The forecast models detailed in this report have been built in compliance with TAG Unit M4 (November 2014).

New Thames Crossing East of Reading WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Wokingham Borough Council Project No 70007417 Confidential May 2017 10

1.4 REPORT PURPOSE

1.4.1 This report provides an analysis of the impact of the scheme proposals upon the transport network assessed and should be read both in conjunction with the Local Model Validation Report, which sets out the suitability of the model, and the scheme Strategic Outline Business Case, which sets out the strategic case and the economic assessment of the scheme.

1.5 REPORT STRUCTURE

1.5.1 This Forecasting Report sets out information relating to the development of the Forecast Scenarios and is structured as follows:

Æ Chapter 2. Forecasting approach Æ Chapter 3. Forecast results Æ Chapter 4. Summary and conclusions.

WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff New Thames Crossing East of Reading Project No 70007417 Wokingham Borough Council

2 FORECASTING APPROACH 2.1 INTRODUCTION

2.1.1 This section describes the approach and assumptions for the production of forecast year models aimed at assessing the impact associated with New Crossing.

2.2 FORECAST YEAR

2.2.1 Option assessment has been undertaken for a forecast year of 2026, which is assumed to be an opening year of the scheme.

2.3 FORECAST DEMAND

2.3.1 Car and public transport growth was obtained through the use of TEMPRO, a software tool that provides projections of growth over time for use in transport models based on outputs from the National Trip End Model (NTEM). NTEM version 7.0 datasets were used for forecasting future growth. NTEM trip growth projections refer to future trip demand due to changes in demography, land use and changes in car ownership and trip rates. It assumes trip costs at base year levels, and it does not allow for changes in travel times, perceived value of time, cost of fuel, and other car operating costs.

2.3.2 NTEM version 7.0 datasets were published on 28 July 2016 and are the latest sets of forecasts. However, since the release, DfT identified some localised issues with the NTEM 7.0, which arose from the use of incorrect data in the model. DfT has identified and published a list of known to be affected authorities and this includes South Oxfordshire.

2.3.3 At the time of undertaking the New Crossing option assessment (November 2016 – January 2017) the DfT’s advice is that until any addendum is released NTEM v7.0 should continue to provide the most up-to-date dataset for use in transport business cases and a robust basis for developing forecasts in the vast majority of cases.

2.3.4 2015 and 2026 planning projections included within TEMPRO for Reading borough, Wokingham borough and South Oxfordshire district are reproduced in Table 2-1. The car driver and public transport growth factors aggregated by different areas are presented in Table 2-2 and Table 2-3.

2.3.5 The NTEM dataset represents the Department’s standard assumptions about growth in demand. The NTEM dataset makes no assumptions about whether or not individual developments go ahead, however, it may not be fully up to date and reflect the latest figures to be planned for in the Local Plans and more locally Neighbourhood Plans. For example, the NTEM dataset takes no account of whether the Chalgrove Airfield site for new 3,500 homes north-west of Henley-on- Thames will be built or not.

2.3.6 The spatial distribution and the amount of travel demand require consideration of local uncertainty in a form of a site-by-site assessment in the area of detailed modelling. The probability of each site being built and site specific assumptions will be considered through development of an uncertainty log at the Outline Business Case stage.

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Table 2-1: TEMPRO Planning Projections LOCALITY HOUSEHOLDS JOBS 2015-2026 2015-2026 2015 2026 2015 2026 Growth Growth Reading 66,216 75,263 13.7% 103,958 110,981 6.8% Wokingham 63,910 78,497 22.8% 80,987 85,897 6.1% South Oxfordshire 57,181 62,662 9.6% 70,732 74,522 5.4%

Table 2-2: TEMPRO Growth in Car Driver Trip Ends

Trip end Type: Origin / Destination Base Year: 2015 Future Year: 2026

AM AM IP IP PM PM LOCALITY Origin Destination Origin Destination Origin Destination Reading 12.2% 8.9% 12.1% 12.2% 9.3% 11.5% Wokingham 13.9% 8.6% 14.0% 14.3% 10.1% 13.7% South Oxfordshire 3.4% 6.8% 8.0% 7.8% 6.3% 4.0%

Table 2-3: TEMPRO Growth in Public Transport Trip Ends

Trip end Type: Origin / Destination Base Year: 2015 Future Year: 2026

AM AM IP IP PM PM LOCALITY Origin Destination Origin Destination Origin Destination Reading 0.1% 1.4% 1.7% 1.8% 1.3% 0.1% Wokingham 8.2% 1.8% 6.8% 7.3% 2.5% 8.0% South Oxfordshire -3.2% -0.3% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% -2.4%

2.3.7 Growth for LGV and HGV was obtained from the latest National Road Traffic Forecasts (NRTF) 2015 Scenario 1 published by the DfT. Growth rates for the South East of England were used and are shown in Table 2-4.

Table 2-4: National Road Traffic Forecast growth factors

TRAFFIC GROWTH PERIOD LGV GROWTH HGV GROWTH

2015 to 2026 30% 12%

2.3.8 Table 2-5 and Table 2-6 display the increase in total car driver and public transport trips within the trip matrices for each of the options for 2026.

Table 2-5: Car Driver Trip Matrix Totals Summary (inter-zonal only), vehicles TIME PERIOD BASE 2026 GROWTH AM 202,878 218,206 7.6%

IP 132,161 145,304 9.9%

PM 212,382 229,068 7.9%

WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff New Thames Crossing East of Reading Project No 70007417 Wokingham Borough Council

Table 2-6: Public Transport Trip Matrix Totals Summary (inter-zonal only), passengers TIME PERIOD BASE 2026 GROWTH AM 56,386 56,926 1.0%

IP 13,124 13,412 2.2%

PM 26,670 26,974 1.1%

2.4 FORECAST NETWORKS

2.4.1 The committed network improvement schemes included within the forecast models are:

Ŷ M4 junctions 3-12: smart motorway “This scheme will use the latest technology to improve journeys by monitoring traffic flow and setting speed limits accordingly. This helps to keep traffic moving smoothly, instead of continually stopping and starting. Information about road conditions and speed limits will be displayed to drivers on electronic road signs. The proposal also involves converting the hard shoulder permanently to a traffic lane. This will create much needed extra capacity necessary to support economic growth. The conversion of the hard shoulder will be continuous through junctions unless there is an operational reason not to do so. It is proposed that the new lane created from the hard shoulder would continue through junctions 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/9 and 11. It is not proposed this for junctions 3 and 12 or at junctions 4b and 10, as these are motorway to motorway links. To enable the provision of a smart motorway along the whole length of the proposed scheme, it will be necessary to widen or replace a number of bridges where there is currently no hard shoulder.”2 Ŷ M4 Junction 10 Congestion Relief Improvement Widening the north and southbound slip roads from the M4 onto the A329(M) to allow for new two lane merges; reducing both carriageways of the A329(M), where it crosses the M4, to one lane using road markings; and amending the road markings on the link roads from the M4 eastbound carriageway to the A329(M) Wokingham bound carriageway to allow for two lanes.

2.4.2 Network assumptions for each of the three crossing options are summarised below:

OPTION 1

2.4.3 Option 1 assumes a single two-lane carriageway river crossing and associated improvements at the A4155 Henley Rd/ Caversham Park Rd signalised junction in the north and the Thames Valley Park Drive roundabout in the South.

2.4.4 The A4155 Henley Rd/ Caversham Park Rd / New Crossing signalised junction in the north layout has been tested in LinSig model to shape a viable design which is displayed in Figure 2-1.

2 Source: Highways England http://roads.highways.gov.uk/projects/m4-junctions-3-12-smart-motorway/

New Thames Crossing East of Reading WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Wokingham Borough Council Project No 70007417 Confidential May 2017 14

Figure 2-1 A4155 Henley Rd/ Caversham Park Rd / New Crossing junction layout

2.4.5 At the southern junction the New Crossing will form a fourth arm at Thames Valley Park Drive roundabout as shown in Figure 2-2.

NEW CROSSING

Figure 2-2 Thames Valley Park Drive / New Crossing junction layout

2.4.6 At the southern junction the New Crossing will form a fourth arm at Thames Valley Park Drive roundabout as shown in Figure 2-2.

2.4.7 The junction layouts represent initial views and may need to be reviewed and refined through preliminary design at the Outline Business Case stage.

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OPTION 2

2.4.8 Option 2 is based on Option 1 but also assumes that an electronic tolling system will be in place with a single journey crossing charge being3:

Æ Cars - £2 Æ LGV - £3 Æ HGV - £6

2.4.9 The toll has been modelled through adding extra cost to the generalised cost of travel in highway assignment. Modelling tolls is a complex matter and it is recognised that the simplest approach has been adopted, which can be further refined if required.

OPTION 3

2.4.10 This is the public transport package option, which assumes a dual four-lane carriageway crossing (two lane each way with one lane dedicated to buses only). The option assumes the following public transport enhancements:

Æ Reading MRT route. The route would link Napier Road with the A3290 (and the TVP P&R facility). The run time from Reading Station to the new P&R site using the route is estimated to be 8 minutes each way. Æ P&R to north Reading with a P&R bus doing a circuit in around 40 mins. This can be used to offer up to 6 trips per hour in the AM peak (4 buses) or 4-5 trips during the rest of the day, and a 3 trip per hour frequency during the evening (2 buses). A Saturday service would likely be every 15 mins (3 buses) and a Sunday service every 20 mins (2 buses). A P&R from the north would be a major change to the transport offer in and around Reading and would provide a cost effective and convenient feeder to the high numbers of rail commuters arriving from the north and going forwards from Reading on the very frequent services to London and elsewhere, provided the P&R is protected from traffic delays and is thus frequent and reliable. Æ Tidal flow bus lane on Reading Bridge would support a prioritisation of this bridge as the main bus access to Caversham. A group of local bus services would use Reading Bridge 11 times an hour each way. With the natural tendency for general traffic to migrate to the New Crossing Reading Bridge would likely be less busy than now. A tidal bus lane would utilise hatching and other unused sections of road together with the current southbound middle lane on the bridge. The aim would be to offer a southbound bus lane in the AM and a northbound bus lane in the PM. For ease of understanding a simple 12 hour split would be the best option, i.e. 00.00 to 12.00 southbound and 12.01 to 23.59 northbound, to operate 7 days per week in common with Reading’s other bus lanes. The bus lane would be camera enforced. Æ Introduction of new and diversion of existing PT services over the New Crossing. The commuter belt north of Reading is an area of high income and with high importance placed on time saving to get where they want to go. Hence there should be a market for the development of faster bus services from this area. It has been assumed that Reading Buses would serve Caversham Park and Emmer Green (currently route 23 every 20 mins, with 2 buses via Reading Bridge and two buses via Thames Valley Park (TVP) P&R and the new bridge. Likewise the commuter villages of Sonning Common and Peppard Common are going to see development of housing by South Oxfordshire and the current route 25 (half hourly via

3 Dartford crossing toll charges were used as the basis

New Thames Crossing East of Reading WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Wokingham Borough Council Project No 70007417 Confidential May 2017 16

the centre of Caversham) could see an X25 added via the new bridge. There are good interchange opportunities at the TVP P&R MRT stop which would make this attractive. In addition the new Carousel X80 service from High Wycombe would be likely to use the new bridge rather than continue to drag through Caversham whereas the long established Arriva 800 would probably continue via Caversham. There will be a reasonable number of private commuter coaches and in particular Henley College and other school services which would use the bridge to save time.

2.4.11 The public transport package proposals are schematically shown in Figure 2-3.

2.5 FORECAST RESPONSES

2.5.1 Travellers may respond to the introduction of the New Crossing in a number of different ways:

Æ Change their route to benefit from quicker journey times Æ Change the destination of some trips usually linked to changes in jobs and shopping Æ Change mode of travel, for example from road to bus Æ Change the number of trips (trip generation and trip suppression)

2.5.2 These key responses have been taken into account within the WSTM4 Variable Demand Model and are fully described within the “WSTM4 Local Model Validation Report”, February 2017.

WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff New Thames Crossing East of Reading Project No 70007417 Wokingham Borough Council

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New Thames Crossing East of Reading WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Wokingham Borough Council Project No 70007417 Confidential May 2017 18

3 FORECAST RESULTS 3.1 INTRODUCTION

3.1.1 In this section the results for each option test will be presented. The performance of each option in terms of the following criteria will be discussed:

Æ Traffic flows and flow differences on key links and key screenlines Æ Journey time performance on selected routes. 3.2 MODELLED FLOWS

3.2.1 2015 base year and 2026 forecast modelled flows are presented in Appendix A to Appendix D for each time period and each option as follows:

Æ Appendix A – 2015 base year flows Æ Appendix B – 2026 Option 1 flows and relative differences between the ‘With the scheme’ scenario and the ‘Without the scheme’ scenario Æ Appendix C - 2026 Option 2 flows and relative differences between the ‘With the scheme’ scenario and the ‘Without the scheme’ scenario Æ Appendix D - 2026 Option 3 flows and relative differences between the ‘With the scheme’ scenario and the ‘Without the scheme’ scenario.

3.2.2 The results are shown in terms of actual flows in vehicles extracted from the WSTM4 model. In addition to total traffic each of the appendices presents HGV only flows as there is a concern that there is a potential for the New Crossing to attract HGVs.

3.2.3 These demonstrate that all options provide a reduction in the level of traffic on each of the existing bridges in Reading as well as the Sonning Bridge. Table 3-1 provides a summary of traffic volume on the New Crossing in each of the Option tests. A summary of HGV flows is provided separately in Table 3-2.

Table 3-1 Total traffic flow on the New Crossing

TOTAL FLOW AM PEAK INTER PEAK PM PEAK NB SB Total NB SB Total NB SB Total Option 1 1,042 1,189 2,231 708 758 1,466 1,291 1,220 2,511 Option 2 239 439 678 51 51 102 277 189 466 Option 3 988 1,209 2,197 702 717 1,419 846 1,155 2,001

Table 3-2 HGV flow on the New Crossing

HGV AM PEAK INTER PEAK PM PEAK NB SB Total NB SB Total NB SB Total Option 1 34 28 62 16 6 22 25 14 39 Option 2 34 31 65 16 6 22 25 14 39 Option 3 34 29 63 16 6 22 18 14 32

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3.2.4 Option 1 (single two-lane carriageway crossing) is estimated to attract 2,231 vehicles in the AM peak hour and around 2,511 vehicles in the PM peak hour. Option 2 (four-lane crossing with enhanced public transport provision) is predicted to attract slightly less traffic than Option 1: 2,197 and 2,001 vehicles in the AM peak and PM peak correspondingly. Option 3 (toll option) is likely to attract the least number of people with the demand reaching 678 vehicles in the AM peak and 466 in the PM peak hour.

3.2.5 The introduction of the New Crossing is forecast to significantly increase traffic on the A3290 predominantly between the M4 J10 and the Thames Valley Park (TVP). Traffic flow changes have been extracted for the section of the A3290 between Winnersh Crossroads (located west of M4 J10) and TVP roundabout as presented in Table 3-3. The highest increases are predicted in the morning and evening peak hours in Option 1 and Option 3 and are forecast to range between 1,121 and 1,674 vehicles. The flow increases in Option 2 are much lower and are estimated to be 310 vehicles in the morning peak hour and 417 vehicles in the evening peak hour.

Table 3-3 Traffic flow changes on the A3290 between Winnersh Crossroads and TVP roundabout

TOTAL FLOW AM PEAK INTER PEAK PM PEAK NB SB Total NB SB Total NB SB Total Option1 521 600 1,121 431 346 777 1,083 591 1,674 Option2 67 243 310 95 51 146 317 100 417 Option3 523 680 1,203 421 353 774 737 740 1,477

3.2.6 Flow changes as a result of introduction of the New Crossing have also been examined across a range of screenlines depicted in Figure 3-1. The results are summarised in Appendix E, Table 4-1 for Option 1, Table 4-2 for Option 2 and Table 4-3 for Option 3. HGV flows are summarised separately in Table 4-4, Table 4-5 and Table 4-6 for Option 1, Option 2 and Option 3 correspondingly.

Figure 3-1 Selected screenlines for traffic flow analysis

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3.2.7 The volume of traffic along Screenline 8, which passes through all four bridges between Caversham and Sonning, is generally forecast to increase in all Options. The highest increase is forecast to be in Option 1 with an extra 1,299 vehicles in the AM peak and 1,593 vehicles in the PM peak likely to be drawn from a wider area. This in turn results in a relief in flow on some of the existing Thames river crossings between Goring and Henley-on-Thames.

3.2.8 An increase in HGV movements through the Thames crossings across a wider area is marginal and is unlikely to exceed 20 vehicles as reported for Screenline 7 (Option 3, PM peak). However, individual links may show relatively high increases in HGV volumes, for example the A3290, which is detailed in the flow difference figures in Appendix B, Appendix C and Appendix D for Option 1, Option 2 and Option 3 respectively.

3.2.9 The flow along Screenline 12 (South East Reading) is forecast to increase in all options and time periods with the A3290 demonstrating the highest increase in two-way flow, which echoes the traffic flow figures presented in Appendix B to Appendix D.

3.2.10 Traffic flow impacts in South Oxfordshire are complex, with certain routes decreasing in traffic and others increasing. Screenline 6, which runs through roads in South Oxfordshire, is predicted to carry less traffic across all options apart from the evening peak movement in Option 2. The reduction may be due to longer distance traffic diverting away from the area with the road capacity in Reading taken by more local vehicles diverting to the New Crossing from the existing Thames river crossings between Goring and Henley-on-Thames.

3.2.11 Despite the overall reduction in traffic along the South Oxfordshire screenline, some roads forming the screenline are forecast to show a reduction in traffic whereas others show an increase. The changes are detailed in Appendix BAppendix B to Appendix D. In absolute terms the differences are relatively low and range between -71 vehicles (B481 between A4130 and Rotherhithe Street, AM peak, Option 3, Southbound) and 34 vehicles (A4074 Red Lane between B471 and Icknield Rd, PM peak, Option 1, Eastbound).

3.2.12 The variations in traffic flows on South Oxfordshire roads are more noticeable in areas located closer to the New Crossing. The scheme is forecast to result in a reduction in traffic on the routes to, from and through Henley-on-Thames, particularly along the A4155 just south of the railway station reaching their highest in the AM peak in Option 1 (-152 vehicles in the northbound direction and -128 vehicles in the southbound direction).

3.2.13 The impact of the New Crossing on roads in Sonning Common is mixed with some routes forecast to show an increase in traffic with others showing a reduction in traffic. The changes vary across different options and time peaks and are detailed on the figures included within Appendix B to Appendix D. To provide an indication, AM Option 1 flow changes around Sonning Common are forecast to range between -17 and 60 vehicles and PM Option 1 flows changes range between -27 and 41 vehicles.

3.2.14 There is no evidence to suggest that the New Crossing may attract longer distance strategic movements from the M40 and M4 to the South Oxfordshire highway network.

3.3 JOURNEY TIME PERFORMANCE

3.3.1 To gauge the impact of the scheme on journey times, journey time data was analysed for the same key routes previously used for validation of the 2015 base year model. Figure 3-2 shows the extent of each of the journey time routes.

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Figure 3-2 Journey Time Routes

3.3.2 Table 4-7 to Table 4-9 in Appendix F show the journey times for the base year (2015) and the forecast year (2026), for each of the time periods and options. These tables show that along the selected journey time routes there is a reduction in travel times in the majority of cases.

3.3.3 However Route 3 (A3290) is forecast to show increases in travel times of up to 11 minutes in Option 3, PM peak. This is because Option 3 includes not only the New Crossing but also a package of public transport measures (including the introduction of Reading MRT route and P&R to the north of Reading) which aims to relieve traffic flow levels in Reading town centre. Though the New Crossing and the public transport measures are estimated to relieve the overall volume of traffic in Reading, the newly released capacity on the A3290 and at the Thames Valley Park (TVP) roundabout are forecast to attract trips from other parts of the highway network and to induce new trips. These in turn are forecast to result in higher volumes of traffic using the northbound off-slip at the TVP roundabout, which block back the straight ahead movement on the A3290 thus generating very high delays.

3.3.4 Route 9 (A4155 Henley Road) is also likely to show higher journey times of up to 4.6 minutes (Option 2, IP).

3.3.5 The delays may need to be further investigated at the Outline Business Case stage with a potential to be mitigated through the preliminary scheme design.

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4 SUMMARY 4.1.1 This report has detailed the 2026 forecasts for the New Thames Crossing East of Reading using the Wokingham Strategic Transport Model 4 (WSTM4) which have been based on a validated 2015 base year. The validated 2015 base year is reported in WSTM4 Local Model Validation Report (February 2016).

4.1.2 The following three crossing options have been considered:

Æ Option 1: a single two-lane carriageway river crossing and associated improvements at the A4155 Henley Rd/ Caversham Park Rd signalised junction in the north and the Thames Valley Park Drive roundabout in the South Æ Option 2: based on Option 1 but it also assumes that an electronic tolling system will be in place with a single journey crossing charge Æ Option 3: a public transport package option, which assumes a dual four-lane carriageway crossing (two lane each way with one lane dedicated to buses only), conversion of one of the existing southbound lanes to a tidal flow bus lane on Reading Bridge, Reading Mass Rapid Transit route and P&R to north Reading.

4.1.3 Forecast models for each option have been built including the appropriate levels of development and infrastructure for each of the forecast years. The forecast models were built for the central growth scenario in line with the guidance within DfT’s TAG. Should the decision is made for the business case to be developed further uncertainty over trends in national travel growth will be taken into account through the creation of a high and low growth scenario.

4.1.4 The impact of the scheme has been looked at in terms of traffic flows and journey time changes between each of the scheme options and the ‘without the scheme’ scenario.

4.1.5 All options provide a reduction in the level of traffic on each of the existing bridges in Reading as well as the Sonning Bridge. The introduction of the New Crossing is forecast to attract traffic to the A3290 predominantly on the section between the M4 J10 and the Thames Valley Park (TVP) roundabout resulting in significant increases in journey times along the A3290. The journey times are also likely to increase on the A4155 Henley Road as extra vehicles are drawn into the area attracted by the New Crossing. Despite the journey time increases on these two routes the scheme is estimated to bring reduced travel times across a wider network.

4.1.6 The New Crossing is likely to generate new trips as well as attract traffic from a wider area currently using existing Thames river crossings between Goring and Henley-on-Thames. Option 1 (single two-lane carriageway crossing) is estimated to attract 2,231 vehicles in the AM peak hour and around 2,511 vehicles in the PM peak hour. Option 2 (dual four-lane carriageway crossing with enhanced public transport provision) is predicted to attract slightly less traffic than Option 1: 2,197 and 2,001 vehicles in the AM peak and PM peak correspondingly. Option 3 (toll option) is likely to attract the least number of people with the demand reaching 678 vehicles in the AM peak and 466 in the PM peak hour.

4.1.7 An increase in HGV movements through the Thames crossings across a wider area is marginal and is unlikely to exceed 20 vehicles with the highest increased forecast for Option 3, PM peak. However, individual links may show relatively high increases in HGV volumes e.g. the A3290.

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4.1.8 There is no evidence to suggest that the New Crossing may attract longer distance strategic movements from the M40 and M4 to the South Oxfordshire highway network.

4.1.9 The scheme is forecast to result in a reduction in traffic on the routes to, from and through Henley-on-Thames, particularly along the A4155 just south of the railway station reaching their highest in the AM peak in Option 1 (-152 vehicles in the northbound direction and -128 vehicles in the southbound direction).

4.1.10 The impact of the New Crossing on roads in Sonning Common is mixed with some routes forecast to show an increase in traffic with others showing a reduction in traffic. The changes vary across different options and time peaks and are detailed on the figures included within Appendix B to Appendix D. To provide an indication, AM Option 1 flow changes around Sonning Common are forecast to range between -17 and 60 vehicles and PM Option 1 flows changes range between -27 and 41 vehicles.

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