Technologyquarterly December 1 0Th 2 0 0 5
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TQ COVERUS CMYK Cyan Magenta Yellow Black The return of Sunrise at last for The promise and supersonic flight renewable energy? peril of biobanks page 3 page 18 page 28 TechnologyQuarterly December 1 0th 2 0 0 5 The making of a monster The rise and rise of computer animation Republication, copying or redistribution by any means is expressly prohibited without the prior written permission of The Economist C B M R Y G K W C B M R Y G K W The Economist Technology Quarterly December 10th 2005 Monitor 1 Contents On the cover The introduction of digital technology has transformed the process of making animated lms. Since the release of Toy Story in 1995, the technology has improved enormously, and computer-animated movies are now a thriving, protable Breaking the sound barrieragain genre. Take a look behind the scenes: Pages 24-26 Monitor 3 Supersonic planes, high-speed walkways, therapeutic video games, novel text-entry Transport: A new breed of supersonic business jets, without methods, a new approach to Concorde’s drawbacks, could soon be taking to the skies shipbreaking, prediction markets, security microdots, MAGINE being able to cross the Atlan- camps, taking two very dierent ap- the end of a virtual world, and Itic in less than three and a half hours. proaches. Those in the rst camp, which who won our Innovation Awards You could y from London to New York includes Gulfstream, are aiming to over- for a meeting and still be home in time for come what was arguably Concorde’s big- Rational consumer dinner. It used to be possible, before the gest drawback: the sonic boom it created 16 High-denition TV demise of Concorde, of course. But while during supersonic ight. The resulting Sharper images, lots of jargon Concorde has passed into history, the noise pollution ultimately led to interna- dream of supersonic travel is alive and tional regulations banning commercial Reports well. Several rms are now racing to de- aircraft from ying supersonic over land. 18 Renewable energy velop a new breed of supersonic passen- This in turn severely restricted the ight Why solar and wind power are ger aircraft. These planes will use new paths Concorde could follow, since it was more competitive than they seem technology to ensure that they are qui- so inecient at subsonic speeds that 21 Near-eld communication eter, more ecient and capable of turn- routes had to be designed to minimise A new technology that could ing a protsomething Concorde the distance own over land. Gulfstream replace tickets, wallets and keys struggled to do throughout its 27-year plans to tackle this problem head on, by lifespan. The new aircraft will dier in getting rid of the sonic boom. It sounds Case history another way, too. To start with, at least, ambitious, but 40 years of research sug- 24 The making of a monster they will probably not be airliners, but gests that it should in fact be possible. The rise and rise of much smaller business jets. According to a theory developed by computer-animated lms That is because business-jet users are two researchers at Cornell University, most likely to value time over money, Richard Seebass and Albert George, the Reports says Preston Henne of Gulfstream Aero- sonic boom can be minimised by altering 28 Medicine’s new central bankers space, a big business-jet manufacturer the shape of the plane to redistribute the The promise and peril of medical based in Savannah, Georgia. Supersonic shockwaves that cause it. Sonic booms databanks, or biobanks business jets make sense from an engi- actually consist of two parts, each caused 30 Material benets neering and nancial point of view, too. by a shockwaveone at the front of the Smart fabrics that can sense, Historically, if you go back and look at aircraft and the other at the tail. The heat, control and illuminate how today’s aeroplane systems evolved, shockwaves arise when the plane is trav- it started with smaller aircraft and au- elling faster than the sound waves it is Brain scan ent customers, says Mr Henne. Con- producing. Unable to dissipate, these 33 A dose of computing corde was an exception to this rule, sound waves build up instead and form a Larry Weed’s quest to get doctors which may explain why it failed. shockwave. Dr Seebass’s theory sug- to use information technology That said, those rushing to build su- gested that shaping the fuselage appro- personic business jets fall into two priately could reduce the boom by 1 2 Monitor The Economist Technology Quarterly December 10th 2005 2 causing the sound waves to spread out, or massive improvements in engine and better still by causing them to interfere airframe design since Concorde, says with each other, so that some sound Richard Tracy, the company’s chief tech- waves cancel others out. nology ocer. Its aircraft will be powered Walk this way But it was only in 2003 that these theo- by two Pratt & Whitney engines, nor- ries were nally shown to be correct. The mally found on far larger aircraft, that can complex shapes required to reduce the be recongured to optimise their perfor- boom proved to be very dicult to de- mance for both subsonic and supersonic sign by hand. Eventually engineers at ight. The aircraft will meet airport noise Transport: New moving walkways America’s space agency, NASA, used a requirementsConcorde used to make a have been given a speed boost. But supercomputer to simulate the airow huge amount of noise on take-o and will pedestrians in airports and around an F-5 ghter jet and determined landingand will also produce a smaller shopping centres be able to cope? how to alter its shape to reduce the sonic sonic boom than would normally be ex- boom. In ight tests, the modied F-5 pected for a plane of its size. That is an un- LONG with vast space cruisers and la- often likened to a pregnant pelican expected benet of putting the engines Aser weapons, they are a science-c- proved that it was indeed possible to close to the fuselage and above the tion staple described by authors reduce the rst part of the sonic boom by wings, explains Mr Tracy, which means including Robert Heinlein and Isaac Asi- 25%. Mr Henne believes that Gulfstream that most of the sonic boom is directed mov: sleek conveyor belts that whisk pas- can reduce the second part of the boom upwards, not down. sengers around futuristic cities at too, and so drastically reduce the sonic So, which camp is right? Perhaps both. breakneck speeds. Yet the moving walk- signature of a supersonic plane passing Mr Henne admits that the rst camp ways that criss-cross many of today’s air- overhead. Supersonic ight over land could lose out to rivals that are not depen- ports and shopping centres travel at a might then become a possibility. dent on changes to the current rules. But sober 3kph, which is slower than most Of course, it is not quite that simple. It he is adamant that deregulating super- people walk. The idea of travelators is will be necessary to persuade regula- sonic ight is the way to go. According to to accelerate foot trac by boosting your torsthe Federal Aviation Administra- a survey carried out by Gulfstream, only walking speed, but many users regard tion and the International Civil Aviation a quarter of all journeys by business jets moving walkways as an excuse to stop Organisation (ICAO)to reconsider the are over water. This, says Mr Henne, se- walking altogether. So why not increase current ban. Furthermore, to make the verely limits Aerion’s market. Aerion the speed of the walkways, as the sci- new aircraft commercially viable, there does not dispute that gure, but argues authors suggest? would also have to be changes in the way that the 25% of ights that are over water Engineering rms have tried for de- that supersonic aircraft are handled are still a signicant market. Indeed, cades to realise the high-speed dream, when coming in to land at airports. There notes Mr Tracy, the market is big enough but without much success. Recent history is little point in having a supersonic air- that Gulfstream has developed long- is littered with abandoned attempts by craft if it gets put into a holding pattern range subsonic aircraft to service it, so companies such as Fujitec, Boeing and for an hour when it arrives at its destina- there should be room for supersonics too. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. Moving tion. These are ambitious goals which Nor is Aerion alone in this belief. Ear- walkways grew out of the mining and might seem foolhardy if Gulfstream were lier this year an agreement was signed be- bulk transport industries, and the rst the only rm pushing for them, but it is tween the Society of Japanese Aerospace high-speed version debuted in 1900 at not alone. Also looking for reform is an Companies (SJAC) and France’s Aero- the Exposition Universelle in Paris. But alliance of ten large aeronautical rms space Industries Association to develop the sloping charms of the equally novel including Lockheed Martin, Boeing Phan- technologies jointly that could be used to escalator proved more attractive to the tom Works, Raytheon and Rolls-Royce produce supersonic airliners. Like Aerion, ourishing department-store business, collectively known as the Supersonic this partnership is concentrating on and the high-speed moving walkway 1 Cruise Industry Alliance (SCIA). This adapting existing technology to produce group is working with NASA to build a a supersonic aircraft that can y subsonic prototype supersonic aircraft.