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William Anderson Lawrence W. Reed 7 b³êdówWilliam ekonomicznych Anderson 1 Lawrence W. Reed 2 Zeszyt edukacyjny PAFERE nr 4 7 b³êdów ekonomicznych 3 William Anderson Lawrence W. Reed 7 b³êdów ekonomicznych Zeszyt edukacyjny PAFERE nr 4. Warszawa 2012 4 Zeszyt edukacyjny PAFERE nr 4 T³umaczenie: Karolina Jurak Tytu³ orygina³u: 7 Fallacies of Economics Copyright © by The Foundation for Economic Research & Education (www.fee.org). Copyright for the Polish translation © 2010 by Polsko-Amerykañska Fundacja Edukacji i Rozwoju Ekono- micznego Fundacja PAFERE Polska www.pafere.org Polsko-Amerykañska Fundacja Edukacji i Rozwoju Ekomicznego PAFERE ul. Adama Mickiewicza 16/12A 01-517 Warszawa www.pafere.org [email protected] 7 b³êdów ekonomicznych 5 7 b³êdów ekonomicznych Lawrence W. Reed Pewien komentator wiadomoœci zauwa¿y³, ¿e „na ka¿de pó³ tuzi- na ekonomistów przypada zazwyczaj mniej wiêcej szeœæ ró¿nych wizji polityki”. Wydaje siê, ¿e rzeczywiœcie tak jest! Jeœli ekonomia jest „nauk¹”, to dlaczego ignoruje precyzjê, pewnoœæ oraz wzglêdn¹ jednomyœl- noœæ opinii, które charakteryzuj¹ tak wiele innych nauk – na przy- k³ad fizykê, chemiê i matematykê? Skoro prawa ekonomii i ludzkiego dzia³ania istniej¹ i s¹ nie- zmienne, dlaczego wiêc ekonomiœci przedstawiaj¹ ca³¹ gamê spraw o kluczowym znaczeniu, nie kieruj¹c siê ¿adnymi regu³ami? Eko- nomista A walczy o obni¿enie podatków, podczas gdy ekonomista B preferuje ich wzrost. Ekonomista C przekonuje o ochronie taryf celnych, zaœ Ekonomista D domaga siê wolnego handlu. Kolejny ekonomista proponuje socjalizacjê, jemu zaœ sprzeciwia siê jeszcze inny, który z kolei popiera gospodarkê rynkow¹. Doprawdy, je¿eli jest cokolwiek, co do czego wszyscy ekonomiœci s¹ zgodni, to chy- ba tylko fakt, ¿e nie zgadzaj¹ siê ze sob¹. Byæ mo¿e cynik spojrzy na tê ekonomiczn¹ Wie¿ê Babel i po- têpi naukowe badania nad czymkolwiek zwi¹zanym z ekonomi¹. By³oby to jednak nieuczciwe w stosunku do wielu odwiecznych prawd, które rzeczywiœcie istniej¹ na polu ludzkiego wspó³dzia- 6 Zeszyt edukacyjny PAFERE nr 4 ³ania na rynku. Co wiêcej, taki pogl¹d mo¿na by nazwaæ „miga- niem siê”. Nie oferuje on ¿adnego wiarygodnego wyt³umaczenia dla chaosu ani ¿adnych porad dla oddzielenia tego, co jest po- prawne od tego, co niepoprawne. Mimo to istniej¹ sposoby na „szaleñstwo” ekonomistów. Fakt, ¿e wszyscy oni nie myœl¹ tak samo, da siê wyt³umaczyæ. Od cze- go moglibyœmy zacz¹æ? Po pierwsze, ekonomia po prostu nie jest fizyk¹, chemi¹, albo matematyk¹. Jest to badanie ludzkiego dzia³ania, zaœ lu- dzie nie s¹ zaprogramowanymi robotami. Owszem, pewne nie- zmienne prawa natury naprawdê istniej¹, ale jedno z nich jest takie, ¿e ludzie – wszyscy i ka¿dy z osobna – s¹ organizmami kierowanymi wewnêtrzn¹ motywacj¹, twórczymi, interesow- nymi. Mo¿na ich uszeregowaæ od ³agodnego do wybuchowe- go, od potulnego do œmia³ego, od zadowolonego z siebie do ambitnego, od zdolnego do nie-a¿ tak-zdolnego. Jak zauwa¿y³ ponad dwieœcie lat temu Adam Smith: „Na wielkiej szachow- nicy ludzkiego spo³eczeñstwa ka¿dy element ma swoj¹ w³asn¹ zasadê ruchu, zupe³nie inn¹ od tego, co w³adza ustawodawcza chcia³aby mu narzuciæ”. Owa nieod³¹czna zmiennoœæ mo¿e z ³atwoœci¹ zrodziæ roz- dŸwiêk poœród tych, którzy siê jej przygl¹daj¹, i równie ³atwo za- daæ k³am przewidywaniom tych, którzy s¹ wystarczaj¹co œmiali, by uzasadniaæ zaistnia³¹ sytuacjê w sposób matematyczny. Ekonomiœci, którzy przecie¿ sami s¹ jednostkami, bêd¹ mieli ró¿ne systemy wartoœci i os¹dy etyczne. Socjalista bêdzie ró¿ni³ siê w kwestii polityki od libertarianina. Mog¹ oni nawet uzgodniæ rezultat tej polityki, podczas gdy nie bêd¹ zgadzaæ siê co do tego, czy ów rezultat jest „dobry” czy te¿ „z³y.” Ludzie, którzy dzia³aj¹ w dobrej wierze i poszukuj¹ prawdy, jednak¿e operuj¹ rozbie¿- nymi przes³ankami etycznymi, czêsto dochodz¹ do rozbie¿nych wniosków. 7 b³êdów ekonomicznych 7 W dodatku ekonomiœci mog¹ byæ niezgodni, poniewa¿ dys- ponuj¹ danymi, które siê ró¿ni¹ lub s¹ niewystarczaj¹ce, albo te¿ zupe³nie nierzetelne. Poni¿ej przedstawiê kilka, ale z pewnoœci¹ nie wszystkie, po- wody, dla których dobrzy ekonomiœci mog¹ siê ze sob¹ nie zga- dzaæ. Jednak¿e celem tego eseju jest znalezienie przyczyn zamie- szania w ekonomii gdzie indziej. Krótko mówi¹c, ekonomiœci sprzeczaj¹ siê, poniewa¿, jak zwiêŸle uj¹³ to Henry Hazlitt, „eko- nomiê nawiedza wiêcej b³êdów ni¿ jak¹kolwiek inn¹ znan¹ cz³o- wiekowi naukê” (wyró¿nienie kursyw¹ s³owa „b³êdów” zosta³o poczynione przeze mnie). Czy jest coœ takiego, jak „z³a ekonomia?” No pewnie, ¿e jest, tak samo, jak jest dobra i z³a instalacja hydrauliczna. Je¿eli przez „z³¹ ekonomiê” rozumie siê propagowanie fa³szywego rozumo- wania, b³êdnych za³o¿eñ i tandetnych intelektualnych produktów, wówczas komentarz Hazlitta powinien byæ uznawany za œwiête prawo! Byæ mo¿e jest to nadmierne uproszczenie, ale s¹dzê, ¿e istotê „z³ej ekonomii” mo¿na uj¹æ w nastêpuj¹cych siedmiu b³êdach. Ka¿dy z nich jest pu³apk¹, któr¹ dobry ekonomista skrupulatnie ominie. 1. B³¹d wspólnych terminów. Przyk³ady wspólnych okreœleñ to: „spo³eczeñstwo”, „wspólnota”, „naród”, „klasa” i „my”. Wa¿ne, by zapamiêtaæ, ¿e s¹ to abstrak- cje, wymys³y wyobraŸni, nie zaœ ¿yj¹ce, oddychaj¹ce, myœl¹ce i dzia³aj¹ce byty. Ujêty tu b³¹d polega na mniemaniu, ¿e kolektyw rzeczywiœcie jest ¿yj¹cym, oddychaj¹cym, myœl¹cym i dzia³aj¹cym bytem. Dobry ekonomista rozpoznaje, ¿e jedynym takim bytem jest osoba. Ÿród³em wszelkiego ludzkiego dzia³ania jest jednostka. Inni 8 Zeszyt edukacyjny PAFERE nr 4 mog¹ wyra¿aæ zgodê na czyjeœ dzia³anie lub nawet w nim uczest- niczyæ, ale wszystko, co w konsekwencji siê wydarzy, mo¿na przy- pisaæ jedynie poszczególnym, identyfikowalnym jednostkom. Pomyœl tylko: czy mog³aby w ogóle istnieæ abstrakcja zwana „spo- ³eczeñstwem”, gdyby wszystkie jednostki zniknê³y? Oczywiœcie, ¿e nie. Innymi s³owy, wspólny termin w rzeczywistoœci nie istnieje nie- zale¿nie od konkretnych osób, które siê na niego sk³adaj¹. Aby ekonomiœci uniknêli b³êdu wspólnych terminów, abso- lutnie niezbêdne jest okreœlenie jego Ÿróde³ i wp³ywu, a nawet przyczyn i skutków. Ten, kto tego nie zrobi, ugrzêŸnie w horren- dalnych uogólnieniach. Przypisze uznanie albo potêpienie do nie- istniej¹cych bytów. Zignoruje w³aœnie te prawdziwe dzia³ania (in- dywidualne dzia³ania), jakie maj¹ miejsce w dynamicznym œwie- cie wokó³ niego. Mo¿e on nawet mówiæ o „gospodarce” prawie, jak gdyby to by³ cz³owiek du¿ych rozmiarów, który grywa w te- nisa i jada na œniadanie p³atki zbo¿owe. 2. B³¹d kompozycji. Ten b³¹d tak¿e dotyczy jednostek. Utrzymuje, ¿e to, co jest praw- dziwe dla jednej jednostki, bêdzie prawdziwe dla wszystkich in- nych. Czêsto podawano przyk³ad widza, który wstaje podczas me- czu pi³ki no¿nej. To prawda, ¿e bêdzie on móg³ widzieæ lepiej, ale je¿eli wszyscy pozostali tak¿e wstan¹, dla wielu indywidualnych widzów widok prawdopodobnie pogorszy siê. Fa³szerz, który drukuje milion dolarów, na pewno zapewni sobie korzyœæ (je¿eli nie zostanie schwytany), jednak¿e je¿eli wszy- scy staniemy siê fa³szerzami i ka¿dy z nas wydrukuje milion do- larów, oczywisty jest raczej zupe³nie inny skutek. W wielu podrêcznikach do ekonomii jest mowa o rolniku, który jest lepiej sytuowany, poniewa¿ ma rekordowy plon, ale mo¿e 7 b³êdów ekonomicznych 9 ju¿ nie byæ lepiej sytuowany, je¿eli ka¿dy rolnik bêdzie mia³ taki zbiór. Sugeruje to powszechne rozpoznanie b³êdu kompozycji, jednak faktem jest, ¿e ów b³¹d nadal siê szerzy. Dobry ekonomista nie przyk³ada zbyt wielkiej wagi do szcze- gó³ów, ale rozumie ogóln¹ sytuacjê; jest on œwiadomy ca³ego „ob- razka”. 3. B³¹d stwierdzenia, ¿e „pieni¹dze s¹ bogactwem”. XVII-wieczni merkantyliœci wynieœli ten b³¹d na szczyt narodo- wej polityki. Wci¹¿ nachyleni nad uk³adaniem w stosy zasobów z³ota i srebra, toczyli wojny z s¹siadami i grabili ich skarby. Skoro Anglia by³a bogatsza ni¿ Francja, wed³ug merkantylistów dzia³o siê tak dlatego, ¿e Anglia mia³a w swoim posiadaniu cenniejsze metale, które zwykle by³y znacz¹ce dla królewskich skarbców. Ów niem¹dry pogl¹d obali³ Adam Smith w swoim Bogactwie Narodów (The Wealth of Nations). Ludzie s¹ zamo¿ni do tego stop- nia, do jakiego posiadaj¹ dobra i us³ugi, nie zaœ pieni¹dze, oœwiad- czy³ Smith. Wszystkie pieni¹dze œwiata - papierowe czy metalo- we – nie zmieni¹ faktu, ¿e cz³owiek g³oduje, je¿eli dobra i us³ugi nie s¹ dostêpne. B³¹d „pieni¹dze s¹ bogactwem” jest utrapieniem wynikaj¹cym z bzika na punkcie waluty. Od czasów Johna Lawa do Johna May- narda Keynesa wielkie populacje w pogoni za t¹ iluzj¹ przesadnie zawy¿a³y poziom cen w gospodarce, popadaj¹c w ruinê. Nawet dzisiaj s³yszymy lamenty typu „potrzebujemy wiêcej pieniêdzy”, chocia¿ monetarne w³adze rz¹dowe produkuj¹ pieni¹dze maso- wo w liczbach rzêdu dwucyfrowego. Dobry ekonomista rozpozna, ¿e tworzenie pieniêdzy nie jest drog¹ na skróty do bogactwa. Jedynie produkcja cennych dóbr i us³ug na rynku, który odzwierciedla ¿yczenia konsumenta, mo¿e z³agodziæ ubóstwo i rozpropagowaæ powodzenie. 10 Zeszyt edukacyjny PAFERE nr 4 4. B³¹d produkcji ze wzglêdu na ni¹ sam¹. Chocia¿ produkcja jest niezbêdna do konsumpcji, nie k³adŸmy przys³owiowego wozu przed koniem. Produkujemy po to, aby- œmy mogli konsumowaæ, nie odwrotnie. Pisanie i nauczanie sprawia mi przyjemnoœæ, ale jeszcze przy- jemniej spêdzam czas opalaj¹c siê w Acapulco. Pracowa³em, by stworzyæ ten artyku³ i nauczaæ zawartych w nim zasad na moich zajêciach, zamiast najpierw wybraæ siê do Acapulco, poniewa¿ wiem, ¿e to jest jedyna droga, któr¹ kiedykolwiek wyjadê poza stan Michigan. Pisanie i nauczanie s¹ œrodkami; wygrzewanie siê w s³oñcu Acapulco jest celem. Wolna gospodarka to dynamiczna gospodarka. Jest ona miej- scem „twórczego zniszczenia”, jak okreœli³ to ekonomista Joseph Schumpeter.
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