Climate Change in the Far North Queensland Region

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Climate Change in the Far North Queensland Region Photo: Tourism Queensland Tourism Photo: Climate change in the Far North Queensland Region Rainfall Data Temperature Data This regional summary describes the projected climate change for the Far North Queensland (FNQ) region. Wujal Wujal Shire Council South Mossman Alchera Dve Projected average temperature, Cairns Aero Tablelands Yarrabah rainfall and evaporation for Regional Shire Council Council Cairns Regional 2030, 2050 and 2070 under low, Council medium and high greenhouse Cassowary Coast Regional gas emissions scenarios are Council compared with historical climate records. FNQ_FIGURE 1 A regional profile Climate and landscape The Far North Queensland region has a diversity of climates based Photo: Tourism Queensland on distance from the coast and elevation, but is generally hot and humid with a distinct ‘wet’ season Key findings (December–March). Rainfall is associated with Temperature moist onshore south-east trade • There has been minimal change in the average annual temperature winds, monsoonal lows or in FNQ over the last decade (from 24.4 °C to 24.5 °C). tropical cyclones. • Projections indicate an increase of up to 3.9 °C by 2070, leading to annual temperatures well beyond those experienced over the The Wet Tropics is at the extremely last 50 years. wet end of the hydrological spectrum, in contrast with many • By 2070, Cairns may have more than eight times the number of other tropical forest regions of days over 35 °C (increasing from an average of four per year to an the world, such as Amazonia average of 34 per year by 2070). and Southeast Asia where rainfall events are less extreme and more Rainfall evenly spread throughout the year. • Average annual rainfall in the last decade fell by more than two per cent compared to the previous 30 years. This is generally consistent with natural variability experienced over the last 110 years, which makes it difficult to detect any influence of climate change at this stage. • Models have projected a range of rainfall changes from an annual increase of 22 per cent to a decrease of 26 per cent by 2070. The ‘best estimate’ of projected rainfall change shows a decrease under all emissions scenarios. Evaporation • Projections indicate annual potential evaporation could increase 7–15 per cent by 2070. Extreme events • The 1-in-100-year storm tide event is projected to increase by 37 cm in Cairns if certain conditions eventuate. These conditions are a 30 cm sea-level rise, a 10 per cent increase in cyclone intensity and frequency, as well as a 130 km shift southwards in cyclone tracks. Photo: Tourism Queensland Tourism Photo: FNQ2 ClimateQ: toward a greener Queensland Demographics Understanding the climate The region is centred on the coastal city of Cairns. It includes Daintree and how it changes and Mossman to the north, Innisfail to the south and the Atherton Queensland’s climate is naturally variable; however, climate change Tablelands to the west. will lead to shifts beyond this natural variability. To assess the risk of human-induced climate change requires an understanding of the In 2007, the region’s population current climate using historical data and future climate scenarios. was 226 266 and is projected to These future scenarios are prepared using data from Global increase beyond 293 900 by 2026. Climate Models. (OESR, 2007; DIP, 2008) Method Important industries Historical climate data of the region Historical climate data collected by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) The major industries are land were aggregated across the FNQ region. The fluctuation and trends in and marine-based tourism, as the observed data are presented including extremes in temperature well as fisheries, horticulture and the frequency of cyclones. and fibre crops. Other value adding industries are aviation, Greenhouse emission scenarios biotechnology, marine training, electronics, general light The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations manufacturing, steel fabrication established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and boat building. in 1988. The IPCC assesses the latest scientific, technological and socio-economic literature on climate change. Mining activities have also recently emerged near Herberton (zinc) and To estimate the potential impacts of future climate change on Mareeba (metallic and non-metallic). Queensland, climate change projections were developed using the IPCC low (B1) medium (A1B) and high (A1FI) greenhouse gas Cairns is the major tourism, business emissions scenarios. The low-range scenario (B1) assumes a rapid and service hub for the region. shift to less fossil fuel intensive industries. The mid-range (A1B) scenario assumes a balanced use of different energy sources. The Far North Queensland contains high (A1FI) scenario assumes continued dependence on fossil fuels. a number of world heritage-listed areas, including the iconic Great Greenhouse gas emissions are currently tracking above the highest Barrier Reef, and the Wet Tropics IPCC emissions scenario (A1FI). The low and medium scenarios and Daintree rainforests, which are are presented to show the potential benefits of action to reduce major world biodiversity hotspots greenhouse gas emissions. and significant international tourist destinations. Climate change projections (Extracted from the Far North Queensland climate change projections were produced by the Queensland Regional Plan) Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) based on the results from 23 Global Climate Models. Projections were provided for 2030, 2050 and 2070. However, as the climate can vary significantly from one year to the next, these projections show changes in average climate for three future 30-year periods centered on 2030, 2050 and 2070. Sea-level rise is also considered. ClimateQ: toward a greener Queensland FNQ3 Current climate The increase in annual maximum temperature is presented in Figure 1. The trend over time is Temperature (BoM, 2008) represented by the black line in each graph. The change in maximum temperatures is greater in the Historical temperature records indicate the average spring, with the average over the last decade increasing temperature in the FNQ region has risen slightly, with by 0.5 °C, compared to the 1961–1990 average. a further increase over the last decade (1998–2007). The average annual temperature was 24.4 °C Temperature extremes (BoM, 2008) in the 30-year period from 1971–2000, which Extremes in temperature (such as a number of days is a 0.1 °C increase on the 1961–1990 average. exceeding 35 °C) are single events that usually do not Over the last decade it has risen by a further 0.1 °C. extend past a couple of days. Due to the influence Average maximum temperature has risen slightly of regional topography, proximity to the ocean and in the Far North Queensland region prevailing winds, location-specific data are required when considering changes in these extreme events over time. Annual 32 Historical temperature records for Cairns (Figure 2) 31 30.4 show that there has not been the increase in the 30.1 30 number of hot days that is seen in other Queensland 29 locations over recent decades. Summer 33 32.1 32 32.1 No observable change in the number of days 31 over 35 °C in Cairns 31 Autumn 12 30 29.8 mperature (°C) 29.5 10 Te 29 28 8 29 Winter Maximum Maximum 28 6 27 27.2 26.8 4 26 Number of days > 35 °C 35 > days of Number 34 Spring 2 33 32.5 0 32 32.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 31 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Year FigureFIGURE 2: RS_FNQ_2 Number of days where the temperature FIGURE RS_FNQ_1 exceeded 35 °C for Cairns Figure 1: Historical annual and seasonal maximum Blank spaces are those years where the maximum temperatures for the Far North Queensland region temperature did not exceed 35 °C. for the period 1950–2007, compared to the base ‘X’ denotes year for which the full data set is not available period 1961–1990 (i.e. the actual values may in fact be greater than what The black line is a five year running average. is shown). The mean for both the baseline of 1961–1990 and the last Data source: BoM, 2008 decade 1998–2007 are shown by the green lines and indicated numerically at the right of the graph. Note: vertical scales may differ between graphs. Data source: BoM, 2008 FNQ4 ClimateQ: toward a greener Queensland Rainfall (BoM, 2008) Historical rainfall shows high variability Annual and seasonal average rainfall is strongly influenced by natural variability, local factors such as topography and vegetation, and broader scale weather Annual 1500 patterns, for example El Niño-Southern Oscillation 1221 1189 (ENSO) events. To understand how this natural 1000 (2.7%) temporal variation changes rainfall patterns, long- 500 term rainfall records are required. The BoM has been 1400 Summer collecting rainfall data for the FNQ region since 1897. 1200 1000 800 725 The variability in annual rainfall is shown in the top 600 661 (9.8%) graph in Figure 3. The graph shows that rainfall in 400 200 recent years has been well within that expected Autumn from natural variability. 600 400 355 Figure 3 shows the dominant summer rainfall pattern 313 200 (−11.8%) with a 1961–1990 average rainfall around 660 mm, compared to an autumn average (the next most tal rainfall (mm) rainfall tal Winter dominant rainfall period) of around 350 mm. To 100 66 Over the most recent decade, there has been a 50 55 (20.9%) 21 per cent increase in the average winter rainfall 0 compared to the 1961–1990 average. Summer average 300 Spring rainfall has increased by 10 per cent. This increase is 200 due to consistently wet summers through the latter 130 half of the 1990s and is well within the bounds of 100 117 (11.3%) natural variability.
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