Cao Ting The Evolution of US-Cuba Relations in the Trump Era

The Evolution of US-Cuba Relations in the Trump Era

The Evolution of US-Cuba Relations in the Trump Era

Cao Ting*

Abstract: Since 2017, US president has adopted a series of tough policies aimed at overturning Obama’s legacy of diplomacy toward Cuba. In order to ensure the stability of the political transition and economic development, the Cuban government has adopted a“rational and prudent”struggle strategy vis-a-vis the United States, and this has meant that relations have not completely broken down. However, stagnation in the normalization process of US-Cuba relations has produced some negative effects, and these have led not only to an impact on the Cuban economy, but also to adverse effects on the United States in many areas. Nevertheless, US-Cuba relations in the Trump era will remain at rock bottom, and Cuba will continue to face significant pressure for survival. Keywords: US-Cuba relations, Trump, motivations, internal affairs

S-Cuba ties are special and complex in the world. Cuba is largely Uguided by its socialist ideology, and Castro’s Cuba had a highly antagonistic relationship with the United States. US president Donald Trump has cooled Obama’s warmer relations with Cuba, while leaving many things in place for other policy choices. This paper is an attempt to trace Trump’s Cuba policy as well as the outlook for US-Cuba relations. I

US-Cuba ties have been characterized by twists and turns for more than half a century. This period can be summarized as the establishment of diplomatic relations, interruption, hostility, resumption of relations and

 Dr. Cao Ting is an assistant research professor at the Institute of Latin American Studies, CICIR.

CIR May/June 2019 121 Cao Ting anomaly. Fidel Castro made a good-will visit to the US after the Cuban Revolution of 1959. However, the US began to harbor hostile intent towards the Cuban government over its agrarian reform law shortly afterwards. Cuba sought the Soviet Union’s support and set itself on the path of socialism. The United States considered the close relations between Cuba and the Soviet Union to be a threat to its national security, and attempted to dismantle the Cuban socialist state accordingly. After the end of the Cold War, Cuba lost valuable aid and trading privileges with the fall of the Soviet Union. The US quickened its pace in breaking Cuba down, and Cuba adopted a comprehensive diplomatic policy and expanded international cooperation to resist pressure from the US. In December 2014, US president and Cuban president Raúl Castro announced that they would move towards renewing full diplomatic relations. Bilateral ties reached unprecedented heights. But Donald Trump has tightened the US Cuba policy, and Cuba has adopted an adequate coping strategy. Donald Trump has partially rolled back the Obama administration’s efforts to normalize relations with Cuba. In 1999 Trump spoke to the Cuban American National Foundation, casting himself as a pro-embargo hardliner who refused to do potentially lucrative business in Cuba until Fidel Castro had gone.1 But in a 2015 interview with Jamie Weinstein of the Daily Caller, he backed US-Cuba diplomatic relations and in 2016 he commented“Cuba has a certain potential.”The campaign for Democratic presidential nominee alleged that Donald Trump had explored business opportunities in Cuba in the late 1990s, in an apparent violation of the US trade embargo. Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway said in an interview that“they paid money in 1998,”but Trump did not eventually invest in the communist island.2 During the heated

1 Andrés Oppenheimer, “Trump Could Win Florida, Thanks to Cuban Americans,”November 2, 2016, accessed February 14, 2019, http://www. miamiherald .com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/andres-oppenheimer/article112080317.html. 2“Clinton Blasts Trump over Report of His Possible Cuba Interests,”September 30, 2016, accessed February 14, 2019, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/09/30 /clinton-blasts-trump-over-report-his-possible-cuba-interests.html.

CIR Vol. 29 No. 3 122 The Evolution of US-Cuba Relations in the Trump Era period of the campaign, Trump reiterated that he would reverse the deal president Barack Obama had struck to reopen diplomatic relations and re-establish some trade with Cuba unless the Cuban regime met his demands to restore political freedoms and free political prisoners.1 On October 25, 2016, Trump met with the Bay of Pigs Veterans Association members, and he eagerly repeated criticism of rival Hillary Clinton, who called for an end to the Cuba embargo. On November 26, 2016, Donald Trump responded to the death of Fidel Castro on his twitter account, saying:“It is my hope that today marks a move away from the horrors endured for too long, and toward a future in which the wonderful Cuban people finally live in the freedom they so richly deserve.”2 Since Donald Trump came to power, he has outlined a tougher Cuba policy. On June 16, 2017, president Donald Trump gave a speech in Miami about his Cuba policy and the new executive order. He said,“I want to express our deep gratitude to a man who has really become a friend of mine—Senator Marco Rubio… .We are deeply honored to be joined by amazing Veterans of the Bay of Pigs… . The exiles and dissidents here today have witnessed communism destroy a nation… . America will expose the crimes of the Castro regime and stand with the Cuban people in their struggle for freedom… . It’s hard to think of a policy that makes less sense than the prior administration’s terrible and misguided deal with the Castro regime …. The previous administration’s easing of restrictions on travel and trade does not help the Cuban people—they only enrich the Cuban regime.”3 He was also defining the four objectives of his Cuba policy: to enhance compliance with United States law, in particular the provisions that govern the embargo of Cuba and the ban on tourism; to hold the Cuban regime

1 Jeremy Diamond,“Trump Shifts on Cuba, Says He Would Reverse Obama’s Deal,”September 17, 2106, accessed February 14, 2019, http://edition.cnn.com/2016 /09/16/politics/donald-trump-cuba/index.html. 2 Reena Flores,“Fidel Castro’s Death: Obama, Donald Trump React to Cuba Leader’s Passing,”November 27, 2016, accessed February 15, 2019,https://www .cbsnews.com/news/fidel-castro-death-obama-donald-trump-react-cuba-leader-passing/. 3 “Remarks by President Trump on the Policy of the United States towards Cuba,”June 16, 2017, accessed February 15, 2019, https://www. whitehouse. gov /briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-policy-united-states-towards-cuba/.

CIR May/June 2019 123 Cao Ting accountable for the oppression and human rights abuses ignored under the Obama policy; to further the national security and foreign policy interests of the United States and those of the Cuban people; and to lay the groundwork for empowering the Cuban people to develop greater economic and political liberty. This policy clarifies that any further improvements in the United States-Cuba relationship will depend entirely upon the Cuban government’s willingness to improve the lives of the Cuban people, by promoting the rule of law, respecting human rights, and taking concrete steps to foster political and economic freedoms.1 In September 2018, the US government announced it had extended the sanctions against Cuba for a further year. The US State Department planned to impose sanctions on the Cuban military and intelligence officers who would have helped Venezuela to repress dissidents.2 The Donald Trump administration accused Cuba of an“acoustic attack”. The US believed that several State Department employees at the US embassy in Havana were subjected to an“acoustic attack”using sonic devices that left at least two with serious health problems.3 The US said that according to its obligations under the Geneva Convention the Cuban government should have taken responsibility to protect US diplomats. One US official said that elements within the Cuban government must have“facilitated”the attack on some level given how tight a grip Cuba’s security services exercise over the country.4 Without a conclusion in the investigation, the US government expelled 15 Cuban diplomats in October 2017, and the embassy halted regular visa operations for Cubans seeking to visit the United State and issued travel warnings for Cuba. Washington has begun to

1“Fact Sheet on Cuba Policy,”June 16, 2017, accessed February 15, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/fact-sheet-cuba-policy/. 2 “EEUU sopesa imponer sanciones a funcionarios de Cuba por su papel en la represión en Venezuela,” November 21, 2018, accessedFebruary 15, 2019, https://www. notimerica. com / politica / noticia-eeuu-sopesa-imponer-sanciones -funcionarios-cuba-papel-represion-venezuela-20181121224715.html. 3 Elise Labott, Patrick Oppmann and Laura Koran,“US Embassy Employees in Cuba Possibly Subject to‘Acoustic Attack’,”August 10, 2017, accessed February 15, 2019, http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/09/politics/us-cuba-acoustic-attack-embassy /index.html. 4 Ibid.

CIR Vol. 29 No. 3 124 The Evolution of US-Cuba Relations in the Trump Era tighten rules on Americans traveling to Cuba. Targeted sanctions are also used by the Trump administration to undermine Cuba’s economy and create a strong deterrent effect on the Cuban government. Targeted sanctions focus on government officials and companies that have governmental affiliations in the target country, and aim to have a direct impact on these groups. Donald Trump announced in June 2017 that he would be significantly restricting US companies from doing business with Cuban enterprises controlled by the military, national security and intelligence, particularly Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A. (GAESA) and its subsidiaries. In December 2017, the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) implemented changes to the Cuba sanctions program announced by the president in June, and it announced that persons subject to US jurisdiction would be prohibited from engaging in certain direct financial transactions with entities and sub-entities identified by the US State Department on the Cuba Restricted List.1 Why did US president Donald Trump reverse his predecessor’s Cuban policies? First, US conservatives emphasize the need for a more assertive policy toward Cuba. The 2016 election left Republicans in control of the White House, the Senate, House and a majority of state governorships. Today’s GOP is generally speaking socially conservative, and its diplomacy is ideology-oriented. Former Republican presidents Ronald Reagan, George Bush Senior and George Bush Junior all claimed a hard line policy toward Cuba. Two Cuban American senators representing the future of US conservatism, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, criticized Obama’s Cuba policy in the 2016 Republican primary. Donald Trump has to a large extent maintained the Republican tradition of conservatism. The US government has exploited the crises in Venezuela and Nicaragua and the leadership succession in Cuba to put pressure on the left wing in Latin America, to push China and Russia aside in the region, and to reshape its

1 US Department of the Treasury,“Treasury, Commerce, and State Implement Changes to the Cuba Sanctions Rules,”November 8, 2017, accessed February 15, 2019, https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Documents/cuba_fact _sheet_11082017.pdf.

CIR May/June 2019 125 Cao Ting exclusive spheres of influence. As such, Trump’s Cuba policy reflects the US’s overarchingly pragmatic priorities in Latin America. Second, Donald Trump is entrenching his position as US president. Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Mario Díaz-Balart, who, as Conservative Cuban Americans, vociferously opposed Obama’s overtures to Havana, are still powerful in Congress. They have pressed Donald Trump to reverse Obama’s Cuba policy. It is important for Donald Trump to draw support from the Republican senators despite any harm that this may cause to some commercial sectors as well as pressure from international organizations and public opinion. Thanks to the support of Marco Rubio, Trump won the state of Florida in the US election. Marco Rubio said he expected the State Department to expand its list of sanctioned entities controlled by the Cuban military.1 He devoted his allotted time in Comey questioning to essentially easing the blow for the president.2 Accordingly, it is believed that there was a political deal between Trump and Rubio. Texas Republican senator Ted Cruz criticized the Obama administration’s decision to open up relations with the communist Caribbean nation of Cuba, saying that the move would be regarded as“a tragic mistake”by future generations.3 Chair and co-founder of the Congressional Hispanic Conference, and member of Congressional Cuba Democracy Caucus, Mario Díaz-Balart said that Obama’s policies hurt the Cuban people by emboldening a regime already in a position to oppress them.4 Third, Donald Trump’s highly personal style is also the diplomacy of

1“Rubio Quiere Más Empresas Militares de Cuba bajo Sanciones de EEUU,” April 17, 2018, accessed February 18, 2019, https://www.elnuevoherald.com/noticias /mundo/america-latina/cuba-es/article209159994.html. 2 Ed O’Keefe,“Rubio defends Trump in Comey questioning,”June 8, 2017, accessed February 18, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2017/live-updates /trump-white-house/james-comey-testimony-what-we-learn/rubio-defends-trump-in-comey -questioning/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.895c2cddfdeb. 3 Brendan Bordelon,“National Review Online: Ted Cruz: Cuba Relations Thaw ‘a Tragic Mistake’,”December 17, 2014, accessed February 18, 2019, https://www .cruz.senate.gov/?p=news&id=2049. 4 Mario Díaz-Balart,“Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart: Obama’s Cuba Policy Is Enabling a Dictator,”April 21, 2015, accessed February 18, 2019, http://time. com /3825781/mario-diaz-balart-obamas-cuba-policy/.

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a showman.“Anything but Obama”is his way of ensuring his independent tone towards benefit and adventure. As such, his diplomacy is rife with uncertainty, confrontation and pragmatism. Donald Trump believes that the Obama administration made many concessions, and he aims to reexamine the deal with Cuba and impose new tight restrictions on American travel and trade with Cuba. II

Despite some changes to the Obama-era Cuba policy, the core of the rapprochement remains intact. The Trump administration has not closed the US embassy in Cuba and has kept Cuba off its list of state sponsors of terror. Communication is continuing at the official level. On June 14, 2018, the United States and Cuba held the seventh Bilateral Commission meeting.1 People-to-people exchanges have not suffered grave consequences. Travelers can still visit Cuba under every other category of travel than individual“people-to-people”trips, including the category of “Support for the Cuban People.”Trade and transactions between US companies and Cuban private enterprises and independent workers are allowed by the US government. Both sides have maintained their cooperation on fighting drug crime and oil spills. President Obama announced an end to the 20-year-standing“wet foot, dry foot”policy that allowed most Cuban migrants who reached US soil to stay and become legal permanent residents after one year. This conforms with Trump’s intentions, and the government is continuing with the implementation. The new restrictions do not apply to deals that had already been signed. This is why the Four Points by Sheraton Havana, which is operated by GAESA and became the first US hotel to open in Cuba in more than 50 years, is not on the list of prohibited entities.2

1“United States and Cuba Hold Seventh Bilateral Commission Meeting,”June 14, 2018, accessed February 19, 2019, https://www. state. gov/r/pa/prs/ps/ 2018 / 06 /283242.htm. 2 Melanie Zanona,“How Trump is Reshaping US Policy on Cuba,”November 19, 2017, accessed February 19, 2019, http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/360957 -how-trump-is-reshaping-us-policy-on-cuba.

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Trump’s Cuba policy can be attributed to various factors. First, Donald Trump is not a committed anti-Cuba person and he never put a diplomatic focus on the Cuba issue. Historically, he has frequently changed his political position. His attacks on globalization and his support for white supremacy have kept him at a distance from the traditional conservatives. At the same time, as a successful businessman, he placed emphasis on trade and immigration, and this is interrelated with US pragmatic interests. The Cuba issue is merely a tool for him to secure Republican support. Second, Trump’s assertive policies have been subject to public opinion pressure. A large number of government officials have fought against Trump’s policy rollback. In May 2017, 54 Democratic and Republican members of the Senate cosponsored the bill to allow Americans to travel to Cuba in the same way that they can travel to any other country in the world. In April 2017, in a letter that was organized by the American Security Project, retired military officers urged the White House to prioritize US national security as part of the Trump administration’s US- Cuba policy review. The letter warns that a failure to engage with Cuba could open a vacuum for US adversaries including Russia and China just 90 miles off US shores.1 USA Rice, the National Corn Growers Association and other US agricultural organizations have urged the Trump administration to expand US-Cuba economic ties. Many international organizations have called for the continuation of Obama’s Cuba policy. Oxfam (Oxford Committee for Famine Relief) has claimed that,“Cuba needs to engage in the global economy and the embargo cuts them out.”2 Human Rights Watch said in a statement“Reversing policy is bad for

1 “Ret. U. S. Military Flag Officers Urge White House to Expand Cuba Engagement to Strengthen U.S. National Security,”April 20, 2017, accessed February 19, 2019, https://www. engagecuba. org/press-releases/ 2017 / 4 / 20 /ret-us-military -flag-officers-urge-white-house-to-expand-cuba-engagement-to-strengthen-us-national -security?rq=u.s.%20national%20security. 2 Sarah Marsh,“Oxfam Urges U.S. to End Embargo on Struggling Cuba,”July 15, 2016, accessed February 19, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cuba-usa-oxfam -idUSKCN0ZU2CJ.

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Cubans.”1 Amnesty International’s 2009 report emphasized how trade and financial sanctions affect healthcare in Cuba.2 Facing some domestic and international resistance, the Trump administration remains pragmatic and flexible in its restrictions. Third, Cuba has introduced reasonable and proportionate rules to respond. The Cuban government announced that Trump’s new policy had rolled back the engagement begun by Barack Obama in 2014, and that it would not allow any attempt to prevent the success of the Cuban socialist system. But at the same time, the government of Cuba reiterated its willingness to maintain respectful dialogue and cooperation in matters of mutual interest, as well as the negotiation of pending bilateral matters with the government of the United States.3 After the“acoustic attack,”Cuba denied it had any involvement in the attacks against US diplomats in the country and cooperated with the ensuing investigation. Cuba announced new immigration policies to boost people-to-people exchanges, and it will continue to study new measures with a view to updating its migratory policy. The international and domestic environment encountered by Cuba could, to some extent, explain why the Cuban government demonstrates a pragmatic and prudent attitude. Internationally, Cuba is witnessing a vast transformation from the previously tight environment. For instance, in 2017, the UN General Assembly’s vote on the resolution on the“Necessity of ending the economic, commercial and financial embargo imposed by the United States of America against Cuba”was 189-2 with no abstentions.

1 Adam Fisher,“Trump‘Canceling’Obama’s Cuba Policy but Leaves Much in Place,”June 17, 2017, accessed February 19, 2019, http://abcnews. go. com/Politics /trumps-cuba-policy/story?id=48058622. 2 “Leading Human Rights Groups Condemn a Potential Reversal of Current Cuba Policy,”June 13, 2017, accessed February 19, 2019, https://www.engagecuba.org /press-releases/2017/6/13/leading-human-rights-groups-condemn-a-potential-reversal -of-current-cuba-policy. 3“Declaración del Gobierno Revolucionario,”June 16, 2017, accessed February 20, 2019, http://www. cubadebate. cu/noticias/ 2017 / 06 / 16 /declaracion-del-gobierno -revolucionario-5/#.Wmg7sPCOxj0.

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The US and Israel voted“no”.1 Support is growing for the lifting of sanctions on Cuba among international organizations and developing countries. Moreover, Cuba is enjoying increased cooperation with the EU, Russia, China and India. Confidence in its diversified diplomacy means that Cuba is fully prepared to meet the challenges posed by the US. Domestically, the smooth transfer of power and an exploration of the socialist economic model are crucial for Cuba. Fidel Castro handed power to Raúl in 2006, and then died 10 years later at the age of 90. In April 2018, Miguel Díaz-Canel became the president of the Council of State, and Raúl Castro remained first secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba. It is beneficial for Cuba to reduce tensions with the US in order to focus on maintaining political stability, upgrading the economic and socialist model, and restoring the authority of the government. In April 2016, Cuba put forward new reform plans bolstering the private economy, advocating retrenchment in national enterprises, currency unification and increased opening up.2 However, the US economic blockade prevents Cuba from attracting foreign investment and renewing its financial system. The reform process in Cuba’s currency and in state-owned business remains very slow. Venezuela, Cuba’s closest ally, has reduced oil exports to Cuba since 2014. Economic growth in Cuba has been far from ideal in recent years. The Gross Domestic Product of Cuba grew 0.5% in 2016. The economy, the cornerstone of the Cuban Communist Party’s rule, depends on a complete lift of the blockade by the US. As such, leaving place for dialogue and communication with the US is vitally important. III

Trump’s new Cuba plan is a double-edged sword. It impacts negatively upon both Cuba and the US.

1 “Israel Is Again Sole US Backer as World Urges End to Cuba Blockade,” November 2, 2018, accessed February 20, 2019, https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel -again-sole-us-backer-as-world-urges-end-to-cuba-blockade/. 2 Raúl Castro,“Informe Central al VII Congreso del Partido Comunista Cuba,” April 17, 2016, accessed February 20, 2019, http://www.cubadebate.cu/noticias/2016 /04/17/informe-central-al-vii-congreso-del-partido-comunista-cuba/#.WmlFXPB94dU.

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Tourism, economic reform and foreign investment in Cuba are suffering under Trump’s new policy. From January to March in 2018, 240 groups of Americans canceled their reservations to travel to the island, and 99% of online sales of the state-owned hotel group Gaviota were also affected. The number of Americans traveling to Cuba through September totaled 460, 646, according to ministry figures seen by Reuters, down 8.8 percent from the same period in 2017.1 Fewer American travelers are choosing private hotels in Cuba. The long-term blockade results in a high degree of disconnection between Cuba and the international financial system, and economic reform is encountering more resistance. The restrictions are affecting other countries’expectations of Cuba’s accomplishments. The EU and a number of countries are watching to see whether they should transfer their investment in Cuba. The United States has also been affected in multiple ways. The US tourist and agricultural sectors are suffering the most. Rolling back the current US policy on Cuba could cost US businesses and tax payers US $6.6 billion, and affect 12, 295 American jobs over the course of the president’s first term.2 Cuba imports up to 80% of its food. This amounts to about US$2 billion annually, creating a huge potential export market for American farmers.3 US agricultural sectors are missing the opportunity to export to Cuba under Trump’s policy. US-Cuba relations are an indicator of US-Latin America ties, which are worse than before. Many Latin American countries are demonstrating their support and solidarity for Cuba’s fight against the US policy. They are seeking new partners in the Asia Pacific and Europe. Today the European Union and Cuba are building

1 Marc Frank,“Americans Venture Back to Cuba as Hurricane Memories, U.S. Tensions Fade,”December 11, 2018, accessed February 20, 2019, https://www .reuters.com/article/us-cuba-usa-travel/americans-venture-back-to-cuba-as-hurricane -memories-u-s-tensions-fade-idUSKBN1OA1IS. 2“Trump Reversing Cuba Policy Would Cost $6.6 Billion, Over 12k Jobs,”June 1, 2017, accessed February 20, 2019, https://www.engagecuba.org/press-releases/2017/6 /1/trump-reversing-cuba-policy-would-cost-66-billion-over-12k-jobs. 3 “Over 100 U. S. Agriculture Groups Urge Trump to Strengthen U. S. - Cuba Trade Relationship,”January 13, 2017, accessed February 21, 2019, https://www .engagecuba.org/press-releases/2017/1/13/over-100-us-agriculture-groups-urge-trump -to-strengthen-us-cuba-trade-relationship?rq=agriculture%20groups.

CIR May/June 2019 131 Cao Ting a strong relationship and advancing comprehensive cooperation. A new landmark agreement between the EU and Cuba entered into force on November 1, 2017, with the commencement of a provisional application of the Political Dialogue and Cooperation Agreement, the first ever agreement between the European Union and Cuba.1 Russia and Cuba are making progress in energy, infrastructure and military cooperation. In the foreseeable future, Cuba-US contradictions will still be focused on ideology and the social system. The US government has warned that Cuba must welcome democratic elections, build a market economy and end human rights violations if it wants the US to continue normalizing relations. America is increasing sanctions on state-owned enterprises, military enterprises and some leaders in Cuba. The Trump administration will also put more pressure on Venezuela, Nicaragua, and other countries that have close ties with the Cuban government. For Cuba’s new leaders, moving reform forwards will require more capacity and wisdom. They will also need to focus on improving people’s quality life and solidifying their power.

(edited by Zhang Yimeng)

1 “A New Chapter for EU-Cuba Relations,” October 31, 2017, accessed February 21, 2019, https://eeas. europa. eu / headquarters / headquarters-homepage_en /34890/A%20new%20chapter%20for%20EU-Cuba%20relations.

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