Socio-Economic Characteristics of Victoria's Forestry Industries

Socio-economic characteristics of Victoria’s forestry industries

Part 3: Dependence of Victorian towns and localities on the forest industry

Report prepared by the Fenner School of Environment and Society for the Victorian Department of Primary Industries, July 2010

Dr Jacki Schirmer and Alex Campbell-Wilson

Fenner School of Environment and Society Australian National University [email protected]

Published by the Victorian Government Department of Primary Industries Melbourne, July 2010. © Copyright State of Victoria, 2010 This publication is copyright. No part may be reproduced by any process except in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968 . Find more information about the Department of Primary Industries on the Internet at www.dpi.vic.gov.au

Acknowledgments: The contributions of the following people and organisations to this study are gratefully acknowledged: ● The Victorian Department of Primary Industries, particularly Peter Parbery ● Forest industry businesses who assisted by completing survey forms and meeting with researchers, and ● Lain Dare, Alex Campbell-Wilson and Cate Campbell-Wilson, who assisted with data collection, data entry and data analysis for the project.

ISBN: 978-1-74264-359-5 (online)

Disclaimer: This publication may be of assistance to you but the State of Victoria and its employees do not guarantee that the publication is without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information in this publication.

Contents 1. Introduction...... 1 2. Forest industry employment ...... 3 3. Dependence on the forest industry...... 10 4. Characteristics of forestry dependent communities...... 14 4.1. Melbourne Statistical Division...... 24 4.1.1. Cockatoo...... 27 4.1.2. Healesville...... 28 4.1.3. Pakenham ...... 29 4.1.4. Powelltown (L)...... 30 4.1.5. Woori Yallock ...... 31 4.1.6. Yarra Junction ...... 32 4.2. Barwon Statistical Division...... 33 4.2.1. Beeac (L)...... 35 4.2.2. Colac...... 36 4.2.3. Drysdale-Clifton Springs...... 37 4.2.4. Leopold...... 38 4.3. Western District Statistical Division...... 39 4.3.1. Casterton...... 41 4.3.2. Dartmoor ...... 42 4.3.3. Hamilton...... 43 4.3.4. Heywood ...... 44 4.3.5. Portland ...... 45 4.4. Central Highlands Statistical Division...... 46 4.4.1. Beaufort...... 48 4.5. Wimmera Statistical Division ...... 49 4.6. Mallee Statistical Division...... 51 4.6.1. Barham-Koondrook (Koondrook Part)...... 53 4.7. Loddon Statistical Division...... 54 4.7.1. Gisborne ...... 56 4.7.2. Romsey...... 57 4.8. Goulburn Statistical Division...... 58 4.8.1. Alexandra ...... 60 4.8.2. Benalla...... 61 4.8.3. Broadford ...... 62 4.8.4. Hazeldene...... 63 4.8.5. Kilmore...... 64 4.8.6. Mansfield...... 65 4.8.7. Marysville (L)...... 66 4.8.8. Seymour ...... 67 4.8.9. Wallan ...... 68 4.9. Ovens-Murray Statistical Division...... 69 4.9.1. Albury-Wodonga (Wodonga Part) ...... 71 4.9.2. Corryong...... 72 4.9.3. Myrtleford ...... 73 4.9.4. Oxley (L)...... 74 4.9.5. Wangaratta...... 75 4.10. East Gippsland Statistical Division...... 76 4.10.1. Bairnsdale...... 78 4.10.2. Bruthen (L)...... 79 4.10.3. Cann River (L)...... 80 4.10.4. Heyfield...... 81 4.10.5. Lakes Entrance ...... 82 4.10.6. Marlo (L)...... 83 4.10.7. Orbost...... 84 4.10.8. Rosedale ...... 85

4.10.9. Yarram...... 86 4.11. Gippsland Statistical Division ...... 87 4.11.1. Churchill...... 89 4.11.2. Drouin...... 90 4.11.3. Glengarry...... 91 4.11.4. Moe-Yallourn ...... 92 4.11.5. Morwell ...... 93 4.11.6. Toongabbie (L)...... 94 4.11.7. Trafalgar...... 95 4.11.8. Traralgon ...... 96 4.11.9. Traralgon South (L)...... 97 4.11.10. Tyers (L) ...... 98 4.11.11. Warragul ...... 99 4.11.12. Yinnar (L) ...... 100 5. Discussion and conclusions ...... 101

Figures Figure 1: Proportion of forest industry workers who live in the same SLA in which they work ...... 9 Figure 2: Comparison of dependence on towns on forest industry employment and adaptive capacity (ABS 2006) ...... 16 Figure 3: Comparison of population change over 2001 to 2006 and adaptive capacity of 54 towns with highest dependence on the forest industry (ABS 2001, 2006)...... 17 Figure 4: Comparison of population size in 2006 and adaptive capacity of 54 towns with highest dependence on the forest industry (ABS 2006) ...... 17

Tables Table 1: Total employment in Victoria’s forest industries, by UC/L and place of residence ... 3 Table 2: Change in employment 2001-2006 and sector of employment by UC/L (ABS 2001, 2006; ANZSIC 1993 classification) ...... 6 Table 3: Forest industry employment in the growing, services to forestry and primary processing sectors, by native forest and plantation sector and UC/L, 2009 (FIS)...... 7 Table 4: Dependence on the forest industry by UC/L (FIS and ABS 2006) ...... 11 Table 5: Comparison of forest industry worker characteristics in different UC/Ls (ABS 2006; 1993 ANZSIC classification) ...... 18 Table 6: Comparison of adaptive capacity of the population, dependence on the forest industry workforce, and population change in the top 54 forest industry dependent towns in Victoria...... 22 Table 6: Socio-economic characteristics of Melbourne SD and Victoria, 2001-06 ...... 25 Table 7: Socio-economic characteristics of Cockatoo and Melbourne SD, 2001-06...... 27 Table 8: Socio-economic characteristics of Healesville and Melbourne SD, 2001-06 ...... 28 Table 9: Socio-economic characteristics of Pakenham and Melbourne SD, 2001-06...... 29 Table 10: Socio-economic characteristics of Powelltown and Melbourne SD, 2001-06 ...... 30 Table 11: Socio-economic characteristics of Woori Yallock and Melbourne SD, 2001-06 ... 31 Table 12: Socio-economic characteristics of Yarra Junction and Melbourne SD, 2001-06.... 32 Table 13: Socio-economic characteristics of Barwon SD and Victoria, 2001-06...... 34 Table 14: Socio-economic characteristics of Beeac and Barwon SD, 2001-06 ...... 35 Table 15: Socio-economic characteristics of Colac and Barwon SD, 2001-06...... 36 Table 16: Socio-economic characteristics of Drysdale-Clifton Springs and Barwon SD, 2001- 06...... 37 Table 17: Socio-economic characteristics of Leopold and Barwon SD, 2001-06...... 38 Table 18: Socio-economic characteristics of Western District SD and Victoria, 2001-06 ..... 40 Table 19: Socio-economic characteristics of Casterton and Western District SD, 2001-06 ... 41 Table 20: Socio-economic characteristics of Dartmoor and Western District SD, 2001-06... 42

Table 21: Socio-economic characteristics of Hamilton and Western District SD, 2001-06 ... 43 Table 22: Socio-economic characteristics of Heywood and Western District SD, 2001-06... 44 Table 23: Socio-economic characteristics of Portland and Western District SD, 2001-06..... 45 Table 24: Socio-economic characteristics of Central Highlands SD and Victoria, 2001-06... 47 Table 25: Socio-economic characteristics of Beaufort and Central Highlands SD, 2001-06.. 48 Table 26: Socio-economic characteristics of Wimmera SD and Victoria, 2001-06...... 50 Table 27: Socio-economic characteristics of Mallee SD and Victoria, 2001-06...... 52 Table 28: Socio-economic characteristics of Barham-Koondrook (Koondrook Part) and Mallee SD, 2001-06...... 53 Table 29: Socio-economic characteristics of Loddon SD and Victoria, 2001-06 ...... 55 Table 30: Socio-economic characteristics of Gisborne and Loddon SD, 2001-06...... 56 Table 31: Socio-economic characteristics of Romsey and Loddon SD, 2001-06 ...... 57 Table 32: Socio-economic characteristics of Goulburn SD and Victoria, 2001-06 ...... 59 Table 33: Socio-economic characteristics of Alexandra and Goulburn SD, 2001-06...... 60 Table 34: Socio-economic characteristics of Benalla and Goulburn SD, 2001-06 ...... 61 Table 35: Socio-economic characteristics of Broadford and Goulburn SD, 2001-06 ...... 62 Table 36: Socio-economic characteristics of Hazeldene and Goulburn SD, 2001-06...... 63 Table 37: Socio-economic characteristics of Kilmore and Goulburn SD, 2001-06 ...... 64 Table 38: Socio-economic characteristics of Mansfield and Goulburn SD, 2001-06 ...... 65 Table 39: Socio-economic characteristics of Marysville and Goulburn SD, 2001-06 ...... 66 Table 40: Socio-economic characteristics of Seymour and Goulburn SD, 2001-06 ...... 67 Table 41: Socio-economic characteristics of Wallan and Goulburn SD, 2001-06...... 68 Table 42: Socio-economic characteristics of Ovens-Murray SD and Victoria, 2001-06 ...... 70 Table 43: Socio-economic characteristics of Albury-Wodonga (Wodonga Part) and Ovens- Murray, 2001-06...... 71 Table 44: Socio-economic characteristics of Corryong and Ovens-Murray, 2001-06...... 72 Table 45: Socio-economic characteristics of Myrtleford and Ovens-Murray, 2001-06...... 73 Table 46: Socio-economic characteristics of Oxley and Ovens-Murray, 2001-06...... 74 Table 47: Socio-economic characteristics of Wangaratta and Ovens-Murray, 2001-06...... 75 Table 48: Socio-economic characteristics of East Gippsland SD and Victoria, 2001-06 ...... 77 Table 49: Socio-economic characteristics of Bairnsdale and East Gippsland SD, 2001-06 ... 78 Table 50: Socio-economic characteristics of Bruthen and East Gippsland SD, 2001-06...... 79 Table 51: Socio-economic characteristics of Cann River and East Gippsland SD, 2001-06 .. 80 Table 52: Socio-economic characteristics of Heyfield and East Gippsland SD, 2001-06 ...... 81 Table 53: Socio-economic characteristics of Lakes Entrance and East Gippsland SD, 2001-06 ...... 82 Table 54: Socio-economic characteristics of Marlo and East Gippsland SD, 2001-06...... 83 Table 55: Socio-economic characteristics of Orbost and East Gippsland SD, 2001-06...... 84 Table 56: Socio-economic characteristics of Bairnsdale and East Gippsland SD, 2001-06 ... 85 Table 57: Socio-economic characteristics of Yarram and East Gippsland SD, 2001-06 ...... 86 Table 58: Socio-economic characteristics of Gippsland SD and Victoria, 2001-06 ...... 88 Table 59: Socio-economic characteristics of Churchill and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 ...... 89 Table 60: Socio-economic characteristics of Drouin and Gippsland SD, 2001-06...... 90 Table 61: Socio-economic characteristics of Glengarry and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 ...... 91 Table 62: Socio-economic characteristics of Moe-Yallourn and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 ..... 92 Table 63: Socio-economic characteristics of Morwell and Gippsland SD, 2001-06...... 93 Table 64: Socio-economic characteristics of Toongabbie and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 ...... 94 Table 65: Socio-economic characteristics of Trafalgar and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 ...... 95 Table 66: Socio-economic characteristics of Traralgon and Gippsland SD, 2001-06...... 96 Table 67: Socio-economic characteristics of Traralgon South and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 .. 97 Table 68: Socio-economic characteristics of Tyers and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 ...... 98 Table 69: Socio-economic characteristics of Warragul and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 ...... 99 Table 70: Socio-economic characteristics of Yinnar and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 ...... 100

iii

1. Introduction Parts 1 and 2 of this report examined the employment, spending and production generated by Victoria’s forest industries, and the characteristics of forest industry workers. Part 1 identified that the forest industry in Victoria has changed considerably over time. Ongoing shifts from native forest to plantation based production, evolving production technology, and changes in processing facilities have all contributed to change in the type and amount of employment the industry generates n different towns and regions of Victoria. Part 2 examined the characteristics of forest industry workers to explore their capacity to adapt to these types of changes. It identified that workers have some key vulnerabilities, including low formal educational attainment and higher than average work hours and staff turnover; and some key capacities, particularly high financial capacity. The employment generated by the industry, and the characteristics of forest industry workers, vary considerably in different towns and localities in Victoria. Part 3 of this report examines dependence of different Victorian towns, referred to as ‘urban centres and localities’ (UC/Ls) on the forest industry. This report forms part of a broader project. As part of the larger project, Coakes Consulting are examining the vulnerabilities of different Victorian communities to change, providing an understanding of how change in the forest industry may impact different towns. This report should be read in conjunction with the Coakes Consulting analysis, and provides background information on the extent and type of forest industry employment in different towns and localities in Victoria, the extent to which employment in different towns depends on the forest industry, and a brief description of the socio-economic characteristics of the towns with greatest dependence on the forest industry. First, a brief profile of employment by individual town is provided, identifying the towns and cities in Victoria with the greatest forest industry employment, a key measure of dependence on the forest industry. The residential and work locations of forest industry workers are then compared at Statistical Local Area (SLA) scale, to identify which SLAs in Victoria tend to be ‘dormitory’ towns where forest industry workers live but do not work, versus regions where more forest industry related activity revolves around forest business workplaces. Trends in employment over time are identified to identify how the industry is changing over time in different towns. The main part of this report identifies and describes key characteristics of the Victorian towns with the greatest dependence on the forest industry, and the forestry workers in them. To better understand the socio-economic characteristics of Victoria’s forest industries, it is important to examine the communities that depend most on these industries, to identify if they tend to have any characteristics that are different to those of other communities in Victoria. Do the communities in which forest industry workers live have characteristics which affect how they adapt and respond to change in the industry? How likely are they to be able to readily adapt to change? To explore these questions, the 54 towns with the greatest dependence on the forest industry in Victoria are identified, and key socio-economic characteristics of these towns briefly reviewed, as well as characteristics of their forest industry workers. This is done for each Statistical Division of Victoria, with key characteristics of the forest industry in each SD briefly summarised before examining individual towns within that SD that are included in the 54 Victorian towns with the greatest dependence on the forest industry.

For each town identified as being in the 54 with the greatest dependence on the forest industry, a limited number of key characteristics are described. In addition, the characteristics of forest industry workers are compared to the industry average, to assist in identifying the likely vulnerability and adaptive capacity of both forest industry workers in that town, and how the broader population of the town may be impacted by changes to the forest industry. It is important to emphasise that many of these towns have relatively low dependence on the forest industry for employment, with as little as 1% of their labour force employed in the industry. The relatively small size of the forest industry relative to the broader labour force in some means that change in the forest industry may have relatively little impact on the town, even if the population of that town have a high vulnerability to change. However, it is still important to understand whether the population living in these towns are likely to have higher or lower than average capacity to adapt to change, as this provides an understanding of capacity to adapt to change in the forest industry. The analysis provided in this report is primarily descriptive. More in-depth analysis is provided by Coakes Consulting in their analysis.

2. Forest industry employment This report focuses primarily on examining the dependence of different towns and localities on the forest industry. Dependence is defined as the proportion of the labour force directly employed in the industry. However, it is useful to begin by examining the absolute number of forest industry workers located in different towns, as this provides some context for subsequent analysis of the extent to which these towns depend on the forest industry. Employment in the forest industry varies considerably by individual town, even within Statistical Divisions (SDs) which have high or low forest industry employment overall. This is largely because employment tends to be clustered around individual processing facilities, and workers in the services to forest sector are often clustered in key towns located centrally to the native forest and plantation areas in which they undertake work. For example, large numbers of workers are located in Morwell and Traralgon, near the Australian Paper processing facility. Many services to forestry workers are located in Hamilton in the Western District of Victoria, and Mt Gambier in South Australia, from which they can undertake work in the large areas of hardwood and softwood plantation located in the Western District, south-east South Australia, and Barwon SDs. To better understand which UC/Ls have key clusters of forest industry workers, the number of forest industry workers in each town was estimated using both forest industry survey (FIS) and ABS data. Table 1 provides data on forest industry employment in all UC/Ls with more than 50 forest industry workers. For some towns, there is considerable difference between FIS and ABS estimates, as can be seen in Table 1 1. For example, much higher numbers of workers were identified by the FIS in the towns of Traralgon, Morwell, Heyfield, Bendigo, Colac, Myrtleford, Hamilton and Casterton, to name just some. This is a result of multiple factors, discussed in Part 1 of this report. At the UC/L scale, randomisation of data by the ABS means that differences of less than five workers are unlikely to be meaningful 2. The FIS classified more workers as living in towns than the ABS, while the ABS recorded more people living in rural areas, due to differences in the process used to classify workers to particular residential locations 3. Table 1: Total employment in Victoria’s forest industries, by UC/L and place of residence Urban centre/locality name (and Growing, Growing, Secondary Total State if outside Victoria) services to services to processing employment forestry and forestry and (ABS 2006) (sum of FIS primary primary and ABS data on secondary processing processing processing) (FIS) (ABS 2006)

1 ABS industry of employment data presented throughout Part 3 of the report are based on ANSZIC 2006 classifications unless otherwise specified. 2 Randomisation refers to the introduction of small changes to numbers of workers in individual localities by the ABS in order to preserve confidentiality of data. Data may vary from the actual number recorded in the Census by three to five workers, or in some cases more. As a result, differences of this magnitude cannot be considered significant when comparing FIS results and ABS data. 3 ABS classifications of towns are based on boundaries defined by the point at which a definable cluster of houses ends. However, when forest industry businesses responded to the FIS, they often described a worker as living in a town such as Colac even if that worker lived on a small rural property just outside the outskirts of the town of Colac, which would not be considered by the ABS to be part of the town of Colac. This means that the survey identified a higher number of workers as being located in towns compared to ABS data, and a smaller number as being located in the ‘rural balance’ area of a Shire (the ‘rural balance’ refers to people who live on rural properties or in small localities with a total population of less than 200). 3

Melbourne 1,658 1,905 10,277 1,1935 Rural Balance (all Shires) 1,224 1,718 695 1,919 Traralgon 818 593 68 886 Geelong 169 195 312 481 Morwell 283 176 38 321 Heyfield 300 95 11 311 Bendigo 119 57 186 305 Colac 287 210 15 302 Ballarat 182 199 110 292 Albury-Wodonga (Wodonga Part) 74 85 179 253 Myrtleford 239 173 1 240 Hamilton 188 15 39 227 Benalla 205 124 19 224 Rural Balance - East Gippsland Shire 220 220 1 Rural Balance – Latrobe Shire 210 210 1 Wangaratta 139 107 36 175 Warrnambool 60 14 88 148 Warragul 116 40 25 141 Rural Balance - Colac-Otway Shire 141 141 1 Shepparton-Mooroopna 28 27 105 133 Bairnsdale 106 56 24 130 Moe-Yallourn 101 115 24 125 Orbost 114 60 6 120 Unknown 111 111 1 Rural Balance –Wangaratta 110 110 1 Rosedale 99 19 8 107 Healesville 90 46 17 107 Pakenham 30 33 67 97 Heywood 73 6 19 92 Yarram 82 22 5 87 Alexandra 82 52 1 83 Portland 73 34 10 83 Casterton 80 43 2 82 Dartmoor (L) 24 3 52 76 Rural Balance – Murrindindi Shire 75 75 1 Rural Balance – Alpine Shire 68 68 1 Mansfield 61 22 6 67 Churchill 62 60 4 66 Lara 40 13 26 66 Mildura 20 15 46 66 Rural Balance - Mornington Peninsula 64 64 1 Sale 51 16 13 64 Rural Balance – Wellington Shire 58 58 1 Port Fairy 55 3 3 58 Rural Balance - Yarra Ranges Shire 53 53 1 Bruthen (L) 45 6 6 51 1Employment estimate includes growing, services to forestry and primary processing but not secondary processing as the ABS do not produce ‘rural balance’ employment data by individual local government area A worker living just outside a rural town (who would be classified as living in that town by the FIS, but not by the ABS) is likely to send their children to school, do their local shopping and join community groups in that town. Functionally, they are dependent on the town and so the FIS provides a more useful understanding of the dependence of individual towns on the forest industry than ABS data.

Key characteristics of workers in different UC/Ls were identified based on ABS data, including the rate of change in employment over time and the proportion of workers in the growing, services to forestry and processing sectors (Table 2). With very few exceptions, UC/Ls with high total employment in the forest industry are largely dependent on processing for that employment. This is consistent with overall patterns of employment in the industry, with processing providing the large majority of employment (see Part 1 of this report). Exceptions to the overall pattern are the ‘rural balance’ (towns with a population of less than 200 people and rural land), as well as Orbost, Healesville, Hamilton, Casterton and Rosedale, in all of which services to forestry make up a higher than average proportion of forest industry employment. Meanwhile, in Heyfield and Warragul there is higher than average employment in the growing sector. As ABS data undercount employment in the services to forestry sector, it is likely that employment in this sector makes up a higher proportion of employment in several of these towns than is indicated in Table 2. When trends in employment over time are examined (Table 2), a high degree of variation is apparent, with employment declining in some towns and growing in others. FIS data were utilised to analyse the extent to which forest industry workers in different UC/Ls depend on the native forest, hardwood plantation and softwood plantation sectors, shown in Table 3. This table includes data for the growing, services to forestry and primary processing only as the FIS did not gather information on the secondary processing sector. For some UC/Ls, the sector of employment was only identified for a small proportion of workers, and in these cases estimates should be considered uncertain. Towns with high employment in the industry and greater than 40% of forest industry workers dependent on the hardwood plantation sector were Hamilton, Casterton, Penola and Moe-Yallourn. In the latter, dependence on hardwood plantations is via the processing sector, with nearby processing utilising hardwood plantation timber as part of their inputs 4. In Hamilton, Casterton and Penola the dependence is largely in the growing and services to forestry sectors. These towns act as centres of employment for this growing sector of the industry. Over 50% of forest industry employment is dependent on the softwood plantation sector in a number of towns, including Albury (NSW), Benalla, Bendigo, Churchill, Colac, Heywood, Moe-Yallourn, Morwell, Mount Gambier (SA), the rural balance of Murrindindi Shire, Portland, Tarpeena (SA), Traralgon, Tumbarumba (NSW), Wangaratta, Warrnambool and Yarram 5. In all cases, this is associated with the location of softwood processing facilities which employ large numbers of workers. Greater than 50% of the total forest industry workforce is dependent on the native forest sector in areas located either close to commercial harvested native forest, or where native forest processing occurs; many of these processing facilities are located relatively close to the native forest resource on which they depend. This includes Alexandra, Bairnsdale, Ballarat, Eden, the rural balance of East Gippsland Shire, Geelong, Healesville, Heyfield, Mansfield, the rural balance of Mornington Peninsula, Orbost, Warragul and the rural balance of the Yarra Ranges.

4 These hardwood plantation inputs are primarily sourced from older hardwood plantations in the Gippsland region, established well before the recent expansion of hardwood plantations in Victoria. 5 For towns located outside Victoria, these figures refer to forest industry workers dependent on Victorian grown timber only. 5

Table 2: Change in employment 2001-2006 and sector of employment by UC/L (ABS 2001, 2006; ANZSIC 1993 classification) Change in Total employment in 2006 by industry Total forest sector employment industry % % % employed UCL name - 2006 employment employed employed in primary (ABS) 2 2001-2006 in in services & secondary (persons) (%) 1 growing to forestry processing Melbourne 0.6 1 2 97 11,067 Rural Balance -9.7 10 15 75 2,266 Traralgon 2.3 3 8 88 634 Geelong -12.7 2 1 97 406 Ballarat 6 5 89 293 Colac 5 10 85 228 Albury-Wodonga 64.5 2 4 95 227 (Wodonga Part) Bendigo 20.7 2 4 94 210 Morwell -13.4 3 8 89 194 Myrtleford -10.9 4 13 83 167 Benalla -20.5 4 3 93 142 Moe-Yallourn 29.2 6 3 91 135 Wangaratta 2 9 89 133 Melton 0 3 97 105 Shepparton-Mooroopna 15.4 0 3 97 105 Sunbury 15.4 3 0 97 105 Heyfield 176.7 21 4 75 101 Pakenham 78.2 0 4 96 90 Warrnambool -9.6 0 0 100 90 Bairnsdale -17.1 0 23 77 75 Orbost -42.1 5 39 56 64 Warragul -16.2 12 17 71 62 Mildura 0 0 95 61 Alexandra 8 23 68 60 Healesville 23.7 5 25 70 60 Churchill 5 4 91 58 Dartmoor (L) 10 0 90 52 Hamilton -29.6 28 0 72 50 Casterton 7 29 64 47 Portland -17.5 10 10 81 47 Drouin -30.9 0 8 92 38 Wallan 0 0 100 36 Bacchus Marsh 0 9 91 35 Ocean Grove-Barwon -24.4 0 0 91 34 Heads Swan Hill 61.9 0 0 100 34 Horsham 0 12 88 33 Broadford -24.7 0 0 100 32 Emerald 0 0 100 30 Rosedale 0 27 73 30 Sale 6 14 80 30 1The rate of change was only calculated if there was a change of 10 or more workers over 2001 to 2006, as changes smaller than this may reflect randomisation of data by the ABS rather than actual change in worker numbers. 2Total employment is slightly different to that shown in Table 1 as UC/L data comparing 2001 and 2006 was based on the ANZSIC 1993 classification, rather than the 2006 classification used where possible in this report. This was necessary as 2001 data were not produced on the 2006 classification.

Table 3: Forest industry employment in the growing, services to forestry and primary processing sectors, by native forest and plantation sector and UC/L, 2009 (FIS) UCL name % of workers employed in each sector % of total Total Hardwood Softwood Native employment employment plantation plantation forest for which in growing, sector (%) sector (%) sector sector of services to (%) employment forestry and identified primary processing (FIS)

Melbourne 12.3 48.2 39.6 32.7 1658 Traralgon 14.6 60.8 24.6 67.6 818 Mount Gambier 14.2 85.7 0.0 84.7 773 Heyfield 0.0 2.8 97.2 97.5 300 Colac 5.4 86.9 7.6 98.4 287 Morwell 19.1 50.9 30.1 100.0 283 Tumbarumba 0.0 100.0 0.0 96.8 244 Myrtleford 0.2 99.8 0.0 100.0 239 Albury-Wodonga 0.0 100.0 0.0 96.1 231 (Albury Part) RB East Gippsland 3.5 2.3 94.2 81.6 220 Benalla 0.0 84.7 15.3 92.8 205 Hamilton 78.8 20.5 0.7 70.4 188 Ballarat 5.9 43.4 50.7 82.9 182 Eden 9.5 6.7 83.8 84.9 175 Geelong 8.0 38.7 53.3 100.0 169 RB Colac-Otway 34.9 26.8 38.3 62.0 141 Wangaratta 7.2 65.7 27.0 102.0 139 Bendigo 0.0 100.0 0.0 67.7 119 Warragul 4.1 38.0 57.8 63.8 116 Orbost 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 114 RB Wangaratta 0.0 87.7 12.3 50.8 110 Bairnsdale 0.5 4.8 94.6 68.5 106 Moe-Yallourn 41.7 58.3 0.0 100.0 101 Rosedale 17.6 82.4 0.0 78.4 99 Healesville 4.8 1.3 94.0 78.5 90 Alexandra 8.7 15.7 75.6 84.4 82 Yarram 0.0 100.0 0.0 72.8 82 Casterton 89.7 10.3 0.0 29.4 80 RB Murrindindi 21.5 72.1 6.5 60.3 75 Heywood 15.0 83.1 2.0 87.5 73 Portland 36.6 63.4 0.0 100.0 73 Penola 49.2 48.6 2.2 54.7 72 RB Mornington 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 64 Peninsula Churchill 30.0 70.0 0.0 100.0 62 Mansfield 2.0 0.0 98.0 86.5 61 Warrnambool 0.0 90.0 10.0 39.3 60 Tarpeena 0.0 100.0 0.0 100.0 55 Port Fairy 0.0 55 RB Yarra Ranges 2.2 8.9 88.9 100.0 53 In locations outside Victoria, employment figures reflect the employment dependent on Victorian grown timber only, whereas for locations within Victoria it reflects employment dependent on all sources of timber.

When analysing employment in different localities, it is important to consider the nature of a region’s dependence on the forest industry. Some towns act as ‘dormitory suburbs’ in which forest industry workers live but no employment activity takes place, while other towns host a large number of forestry businesses, but are home to few of the workers employed in these businesses. Understanding the residential and work locations of forest industry workers provides some understanding of the socioeconomic impacts of the industry on a region. In towns where forestry offices are located (i.e. the places where workers work), forestry businesses will undertake some – often a considerable proportion – of their spending, and a cluster of businesses may develop to support the industry, bringing considerable economic activity to the region. The spending of workers on items such as lunches will also generate retail business. The towns where forest industry workers live, in contrast, are likely to be where a large proportion of wages of those workers are spent, and where a wide range of services such as schools, shopping, medical services and others are accessed. The differences in residential and work locations of forest industry workers are analysed in Figure 1, based on ABS 2006 data 6. This provides an improved understanding of typical patterns of dependence on the forest industry. Ideally, this type of analysis would also examine the spatial linkages back to the plantation and native forest resources themselves, which are often located some distance from the offices in which forestry businesses are based. This type of analysis was not possible based on ABS data, but can be explored through methods such as Town Resource Cluster analysis based on detailed survey data. This type of in-depth analysis has been undertaken in East Gippsland for this study by Coakes Consulting. Workers are more likely to live in the same SLA their place of employment is located in if they are based on more remote rural areas, and less likely to live in the same SLA their place of employment is located in if they live in a rural area and commute to a regional city in a nearby SLA to work, such as Hamilton, Ballarat or Traralgon. In Melbourne, many workers work in a different SLA to that in which they live. However, if the entire Statistical Division of Melbourne is considered, the proportion of workers who both live and work in the broader city of Melbourne is high, as can be seen in Figure 1. Analysis at SD scale is more meaningful for Melbourne, as SLAs in Melbourne are generally quite small, and workers can commute across multiple SLAs in a short time.

6 The ABS does not produce data about the labour force by place of employment to UC/L scale, with the smallest scale at which these data are produced the ‘Statistical Local Area’ (SLA). Data were only analysed for SLAs in which more than five workers worked or lived, as data randomisation by the ABS means that below this number of workers, there is limited confidence in the data when cross-tabulated.

Figure 1: Proportion of forest industry workers who live in the same SLA in which they work

3. Dependence on the forest industry The first part of this report identified which towns and regions of Victoria have the highest numbers of people working in the forest industry, the types of work they undertake in the industry, and how that employment is changing over time. It also provided some understanding of whether different regions are residential or office locations for forest industry workers. While providing useful information on the numbers of forest industry workers in different regions, towns with high numbers of forest industry workers are not necessarily highly dependent on the forest industry. For example, the UC/L of Melbourne has a high number of forestry workers but, due to the large size of its labour force, a very low dependence on the industry. Dependence is best measured by identifying the number of forestry workers relative to the overall size of the town. This section identifies the towns most dependent on the forest industry, with dependence defined as the proportion of the employed labour force who work in the forest industry. While dependence on the forest industry was defined as the proportion of a town’s labour force working in the forest industry, this definition was modified somewhat to reflect uncertainties in data produced for towns with a small number of forest industry workers. An initial analysis based on ABS data was undertaken, in which the most forestry dependent towns were defined as those with either (a) 4% or more of their labour force dependent on the industry, or (b) between 1% and 4% of their labour force dependent on the industry and a total forest industry workforce of 20 or more people. The latter part of the definition was included as data were less certain where a town had less than 20 workers, with randomisation of data by the ABS, and variation in estimates from different sources, making it likely that high dependence could reflect errors in estimation of worker numbers rather than actual high dependence on the industry. The extent of dependence of these towns on the forest industry was then re-calculated when data from the FIS were available. Where there was large variation in the estimates of the ABS and FIS of numbers of workers in the growing, services to forestry and primary processing industries, the highest estimate was used to calculate dependence. A total of 54 towns met these criteria, and hence 54 towns were included in the list of towns with greatest dependence on the industry. This re-analysis showed that in many cases, towns had higher dependence on the industry than was indicated by ABS data alone. As a result, the original definition of dependence was revised, with the 54 most forest industry dependent towns having either (a) 20% or more of their labour force dependent on the industry, or between 1% and 20% of their labour force dependent on the industry and a total forest industry workforce of 20 or more people. Table 4 provides data for the towns within Victoria which were found to meet the criteria described above, using the original definition, which was subsequently updated once FIS data were available 7. It shows the total number of workers based on ABS and FIS estimates, estimated total forest industry employment for the purpose of calculating dependence on the industry, and the estimated proportion of the labour force employed in the forest industry 8.

7 A small number of additional towns were identified as meeting the revised criteria once data from the FIS were available, but were not analysed due to time and resource constraints. 8 Note that some towns in Table 4 are listed as having less than 20 employees or slightly less than 1% employment in forest industries; these were all towns where, when data were sourced from a second 10

Table 4: Dependence on the forest industry by UC/L (FIS and ABS 2006) City/town/locality Total Total estimated Proportion of Proportion of name estimated forest industry employed employed labour forest industry employment labour force force working in employment (persons) working in forest industry (persons) (2) Sum of FIS + forest (%) (1) ABS 2006 ABS 2006 1 industry (%) (2) Sum of FIS + (1) ABS 2006 ABS 2006 Dartmoor (L) 55 76 52.88 73.08 Heyfield 106 312 19.27 56.65 Cann River (L) 22 39 23.40 41.70 Rosedale 27 107 6.34 25.21 Myrtleford 174 240 16.52 22.79 Bruthen (L) 12 51 5.04 21.26 Heywood 25 92 5.41 19.96 Orbost 66 120 9.39 17.00 Marlo (L) 11 20 8.46 15.54 Casterton 45 82 7.80 14.18 Yarram 27 87 4.23 14.15 Powelltown (L) 11 10 14.86 13.51 Marysville (L) 9 26 3.56 10.28 Traralgon 661 886 6.84 9.16 Alexandra 53 83 5.74 9.04 Glengarry (L) 28 23 8.41 6.91 Morwell 214 321 4.58 6.87 Barham- 18 21 5.71 6.67 Koondrook (Koondrook Part) Colac 225 302 4.71 6.32 Benalla 143 223 3.87 6.04 Tyers (L) 12 7 7.50 5.83 Oxley (L) 8 8 5.37 5.37 Beeac (L) 3 4 4.00 5.33 Hamilton 54 227 1.27 5.32 Beaufort 13 19 3.60 5.12 Mansfield 28 67 2.14 5.10 Traralgon South 8 5.00 5.00 (L) Hazeldene (L) 12 9 5.69 4.27 Toongabbie (L) 7 8 3.59 4.10 Yinnar (L) 25 20 5.78 3.97 Churchill 64 66 3.55 3.66 Corryong 26 16 5.80 3.50 Yarra Junction 20 28 2.29 3.50 Healesville 63 107 2.02 3.43 Bairnsdale 80 131 1.77 2.89 Warragul 44 120 1.28 2.80 Woori Yallock 8 14 1.88 2.55 Broadford 34 32 2.62 2.46 Wangaratta 114 146 1.92 2.35 Moe-Yallourn 138 125 2.50 2.25 Portland 44 83 1.03 1.95 Trafalgar 24 18 2.46 1.81 Albury-Wodonga 263 253 1.86 1.79 (Wodonga Part) Drouin 39 43 1.36 1.51 Romsey 27 22 1.69 1.37 source, ABS data randomisation was found to result in varied estimates of employment which ranged above 20 workers and 1% of the total employed labour force. They were included in the analysis as it is possible that data randomisation processes are the only reason they do not quite fit the criteria given. 11

City/town/locality Total Total estimated Proportion of Proportion of name estimated forest industry employed employed labour forest industry employment labour force force working in employment (persons) working in forest industry (persons) (2) Sum of FIS + forest (%) (1) ABS 2006 ABS 2006 1 industry (%) (2) Sum of FIS + (1) ABS 2006 ABS 2006 Wallan 12 0 1.82 1.33 Cockatoo 24 20 1.21 1.21 Kilmore 24 24 1.22 1.19 Pakenham 100 97 1.19 1.15 Gisborne 48 34 1.10 1.13 Seymour 43 27 1.77 1.12 Lakes Entrance 23 18 0.97 0.97 Drysdale-Clifton 47 38 0.86 0.88 Springs Leopold 32 30 0.75 0.77 1The figures in this column are based on the sum of employment estimated by the FIS in 2009 for the growing, services to forestry and primary processing sectors, and ABS 2006 estimates of employment in secondary processing.

The towns with highest dependence on the forest industry as a proportion of their employed labour force are quite different to those with the highest number of people employed in forest industries. This is due to the highly varied size of the labour force in different Victorian UC/Ls. Small rural towns are more likely to have high dependence on forest industry employment than large cities. The 50 Victorian towns with the highest dependence on forest industry employment vary considerably in the extent of their dependence on forest industry employment, with anywhere from 1% to 73% of the labour force working in the industry. The towns with greater than 10% of their workforce employed in the industry are Dartmoor, Heyfield, Cann River, Rosedale, Myrtleford, Bruthen, Heywood, Orbost, Marlo, Casterton, Yarram, Powelltown and Marysville. Across all of Victoria, dependence on forest industry employment declined over 1996 to 2006, from 0.96% of workers in 1996 to 0.94% of Victorian workers in 2001 and 0.84% of workers in 2006 9. While employment in the forest industry grew over this period as a whole, it declined as a proportion of the labour force due to the higher rate of growth in the labour force compared to the forest industry. Over 2001 to 2006, while employment in forest industries did decline slightly, the decline in the proportion of the labour force employed in forestry was also partly a result of growth of 8.7% in the Victorian labour force over this period (ABS 1996, 2006; ANZSIC 1993 classification). Local regions have experienced varying change in their dependence on the forest industry over time. Of the SLAs with greater than 1% of their employed labour force working in forest industries, over 1996 to 2006, 61.4% (35 SLAs) experienced a decline in dependence on the forest industry. For some this was the result of a decline in total forest industry employment; in others, the labour force grew faster than the rate of growth of forest industry employment. In total, 38.6% (22 SLAs) experienced growth in dependence, in all cases associated with growth in the overall forest industry workforce. There were no cases where this was due to a decline in size of the overall labour force (ABS 1996, 2006; ANZSIC 1993 classification).

9 As the ABS estimate a smaller number of workers to be employed in the forest industry compared to the FIS, these figures are lower than the 1.03% of Victoria’s workforce estimated to be employed in the forest industry in 2009 based on FIS data (see Part 1 of this report). 12

Figure 15 in Part 1 of this report showed change in dependence on the forest industry in different Victorian SLAs over 1996 to 2006. This showed that dependence on forest industry employment has typically fallen in areas with higher dependence on the native forest sector, and grown in regions where the hardwood and softwood plantation sectors are expanding, or where new or expanded processing facilities have been established.

4. Characteristics of forestry dependent communities As well as examining the total number of jobs generated by Victoria’s forest industries, how these jobs are distributed, and the characteristics of forestry workers, it is important to consider the nature of forest-dependent communities. Do any of the 54 Victorian towns with the highest dependence on forest industry employment have characteristics that suggest a higher or lower than average capacity to adapt to changes in the forest industry? It is important to emphasise that many of these towns have relatively low dependence on the forest industry for employment, with as little as 1% of their labour force employed in the industry. The relatively small size of the forest industry relative to the broader labour force in some means that change in the forest industry may have relatively little impact on the town, even if the population of that town have a high vulnerability to change. However, it is still important to understand whether the population living in these towns are likely to have higher or lower than average capacity to adapt to change, as this will influence forest industry workers’ ability to adapt to changes in the industry. This part of the report examines key characteristics of the 54 towns in Victoria with the highest dependence on the forest industry. For each, a set of key indicators are given, which examine for 2001 to 2006: • Population and age distribution: Total population Indigenous status: Proportion of population identifying as Indigenous Gender ratio: Proportion of males to females Age distribution: Median age, proportion of the population aged under 14 and the proportion aged over 65 • Income and housing costs: Median weekly household income (not able to be profiled over time due to changes in how the ABS measured and reported this variable between 2001 and 2006) Proportion of high income earning households, defined as those earning more than $2,000 a week Proportion of low income earning households, defined as those earning less than $500 a week Median housing repayment (monthly) • Employment and labour force Unemployment rate Labour force participation • Educational attainment Proportion of the population aged over 15 (referred to as ‘adults’) who have completed high school • Local services Total school enrolments (number of children enrolled in schools located in the UC/L)

• Forestry employment Proportion of the labour force employed in forestry, based on ABS statistics Number of forestry and logging jobs, based on ABS data Wood and paper product manufacturing jobs, based on ABS data, and Proportion of workers based in the plantation sector, based on survey data. As the goal of this analysis was partly to identify change over time in key characteristics, ABS data are primarily relied on. This means that estimates of forestry employment are drawn solely from the ABS, with the exception of the estimation of proportion of employment based in the plantation sector, are based on the ANSZIC 1993 industry classification. Hence total forest industry employment estimates provided are lower than those estimated in 2009 by the FIS. It also means the proportion of the labour force estimated to work in the forest industry is slightly lower than it would be if FIS data were utilised. Data are analysed at the ‘urban centre/locality’ (UC/L) scale 10 . The calculations used in the tables in the remainder of this report are described in detail in Appendix 1. A brief commentary is provided for each UC/L describing key trends observed over 2001 to 2006, and how the UC/L compares to Victoria as a whole. In addition to examining potential vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity of the population of towns identified as having high dependence on the forest industry, the characteristics of forestry workers in each of these towns are compared to the industry average. In addition, Table 5 summarises how forest industry workers in individual towns differed to the industry average, enabling comparison of different UC/Ls, and providing an understanding of the localities in which the workforce may have particular challenges adapting to change. Not all indicators examined in Part 2 of this report are included in Table 5, which focuses on core indicators of adaptive capacity. UC/Ls where forest industry workers are likely to be less adaptable to change than the average for the forest industry workforce (based on Table 5) are: Albury-Wodonga (Wodonga part), Alexandra, Bairnsdale, Barham-Koondrook (Koondrook part), Beaufort, Benalla, Broadford, Cann River, Casterton, Churchill, Cockatoo, Colac, Corryong, Dartmoor, Drouin, Echuca, Glengarry, Healesville, Heyfield, Heywood, Kilmore, Mansfield, Millgrove, Morwell, Myrtleford, Orbost, Portland, Romsey, Sale, Seymour, Swan Hill, Trafalgar, Traralgon, Woori Yallock, and Yarram. These UC/Ls are clustered in Gippsland, East Gippsland, north-east of Melbourne and in parts of the Western District, indicating these are regions where the industry is more vulnerable to change. UC/Ls where forest industry workers are likely to be more adaptable to change than the average for the forest industry workforce are: Bacchus Marsh, Beechworth, Bendigo, Hamilton, Horsham, Pearcedale, Warragul and Whittlesea. No particular

10 Until 2001, UC/L data was only produced by the ABS based on a person’s ‘location on Census night’, termed the ‘place of enumeration’. In 2006, however, it has been produced on two bases – a person’s ‘place of usual residence’, which ensures people are ‘counted’ where they normally live, or their location on Census night, which may mean some people are ‘counted’ in a town other than that in which they live. In our analysis, to ensure comparability over time data were analysed based on a person’s location on Census night, as data based on place of usual residence could not be compared to place of enumeration data in some towns.

15 regional pattern was noted for the distribution of these workers except that most were in regional cities or urban areas near Melbourne. UC/Ls with a mix of characteristics including three or more indicating high adaptability and three or more indicating low adaptability are: Gisborne, Mirboo North, Ocean Grove-Barwon Heads, Pakenham, Rosedale, Torquay, Wallan, and Warburton. The adaptive capacity of the 54 towns with greatest dependence on the forest industry was compared to analyse whether the extent of their dependent on the forest industry was correlated with their adaptive capacity. This was then compared to the correlation between adaptive capacity and (a) population size and (b) rate of population change, both factors often found to be associated with likelihood of a town experiencing rural decline (Hugo 2005) (Table 6). There does appear to be some correlation between the extent of forest industry dependence and adaptive capacity of the population of a town. Towns with higher dependence on the forest industry were more likely to have low adaptive capacity than those with low dependence on the forest industry (Figure 2). However, there was some variability, with towns with 2-5% of their employed labour force working in the industry more likely to have low adaptive capacity than those with 5-10% working in the industry. Rate of population change is strongly correlated with adaptive capacity, with towns experiencing population decline over 2001 to 2006 more likely to have low adaptive capacity than towns experiencing population growth (Figure 3). This correlation is somewhat stronger than that related to extent of forest industry dependence. Population size appears weakly correlated with adaptive capacity, with smaller towns more likely to have low adaptive capacity than larger towns (Figure 4). While there may be some relationship between extent of forest industry dependence of a town and its adaptive capacity, the exact reasons for this are not known. The stronger relationship between population change and adaptive capacity suggests that factors other than the presence of the forest industry may be just as, or more important, than the industry in determining adaptive capacity. Further analysis would be needed to identify the nature of the various factors involved.

<2% employed in 21% 36% 43% industry (14 towns)

2-5% employed in 58% 33% 17% industry (12 towns)

5-10% employed in 42% 33% 25% industry (12 towns)

>10% employed in 75% 25% 0% industry (12 towns)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Proportion of towns with low, average or high adaptive capacity Low adaptive capacity Average adaptive capacity High adaptive capacity

Figure 2: Comparison of dependence on towns on forest industry employment and adaptive capacity (ABS 2006)

>10% population 18% 36% 45% growth (11 towns)

0-10% population 35% 45% 20% growth (20 towns)

Population decline 75% 15% 10% (20 towns)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Proportion of towns with low,average or high adaptive capacity

Low adaptive capacity Average adaptive capacity High adaptive capacity

Figure 3: Comparison of population change over 2001 to 2006 and adaptive capacity of 54 towns with highest dependence on the forest industry (ABS 2001, 2006)

10,000 or higher population (10 towns) 30% 40% 30%

5,000-9,999 population (10 towns) 20% 50% 30%

1,000-4,999 population (19 towns) 63% 26% 11%

0-999 population (14 towns) 50% 21% 29%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Proportion of towns with low, average or high adaptive capacity

Low adaptive capacity Average adaptive capacity High adaptive capacity

Figure 4: Comparison of population size in 2006 and adaptive capacity of 54 towns with highest dependence on the forest industry (ABS 2006)

Table 5: Comparison of forest industry worker characteristics in different UC/Ls (ABS 2006; 1993 ANZSIC classification) Region (all Victorian Age of Education- Education- Occupation - Occupation: Occupation: Occupation: Individual Monthly Work hours UC/Ls) workers high school post- professional trades- production labourers weekly housing school persons and transport income loan workers repayment

Rural Balance Low High Albury-Wodonga Younger Low High Low High (Wodonga Part) Alexandra Older Low Low High Low High Low High Avoca (L) High Bacchus Marsh High Low Low Low Bairnsdale Low Low High High Low Low Ballarat Younger High High Barham-Koondrook Younger Low Low Low High Low (Koondrook Part) and older Beaufort Older Low High High Low Low Beechworth Low High High High Low Benalla Younger Low Low Low High High Low Bendigo Younger Low High High Low Low Low Broadford Low Low High High Camperdown Low Cann River (L) Older Low Low Low High Casterton Low Low High High Low Low Churchill Low Low High High High Low High Cockatoo Low Low High High High Colac Younger Low Low Low High High Low Corryong Older Low Low Low Creswick High Low High Darnum (L) High Dartmoor (L) Older Low High High Low Drouin Low Low High High Low Low Drysdale-Clifton Springs Younger Low High Low Low

Region (all Victorian Age of Education- Education- Occupation - Occupation: Occupation: Occupation: Individual Monthly Work hours UC/Ls) workers high school post- professional trades- production labourers weekly housing school persons and transport income loan workers repayment

Echuca-Moama (Echuca High Low High High Low Part) Emerald Older Low High Low Low Geelong Younger High Low Gisborne Older High High Low Low Low High High Glengarry (L) Low Low Low High High High High Hamilton Younger High Low Low Low Low Hazeldene (L) High Healesville Younger Low High High Low High Heyfield Younger Low Low Low High High Low Heywood Younger Low Low Low High High Low Low Low Horsham High High High Low Low Low Kilmore Low High High High Kyneton Older Lakes Entrance Low High Low Low High Low Lara Younger Low High Low High Leopold Younger Low High Low High Macedon Older High Low Low Maffra Younger High Low High High Mansfield Older Low High Low Low High Melbourne High High High Melton Low Low High Mildura Younger Low High Low Millgrove Low Low Low High High Low Mirboo North Younger High High Low High Low Low and older Moe-Yallourn Younger Low High Low High Morwell Low High High Low High Mount Beauty High

Myrtleford Low Low High High Low Ocean Grove-Barwon Younger Low Low High Low Low High Heads Orbost Low Low Low High High Low High Pakenham Younger Low High High Low High High Pearcedale High High Low Low Low Low Portarlington High Portland High Low Low High Low Romsey Low Low High High High Rosedale High High High High Low High Sale Low High High Seymour Low High Low Low Low High Low Shepparton-Mooroopna Younger Low High High Sunbury High Low Low Swan Hill Low Low Low High Low Low Terang Younger and older Torquay Low Low High Low Low Low Trafalgar Younger Low High Low Low High High Traralgon High High High High High Tyers (L) High Wallan Low High Low High High Low High Wangaratta Younger Low High High Warburton High High Low High High Low Low High Warburton East (L) Low Warracknabeal High Warragul High High High High High Warrnambool Younger Low High Low Low Whittlesea Low High Low Low Low

Wonthaggi Low Woori Yallock Younger Low Low Low High High Yarra Junction High Low High Low Yarram Low Low Low High High Low Yea High Guide to colour coding: • Age: Red shaded cells indicate workers are older than average for the industry. Areas where workers are younger than average are not coloured, as this does not always indicate difficulty (or advantage) in adapting to change • Education – high school: Red shaded cells indicate fewer than average workers have completed high school, blue indicates more workers have completed high school than the industry average • Education – post school qualifications: Red shaded cells indicate fewer than average workers have completed post school qualifications, blue indicates higher than average workers have completed post school qualifications compared to the industry average • Occupation – areas with higher than average dependence on labourers and production and transport workers are shaded red; and those with low dependence on these lower skill occupations are shaded blue, while those with higher than average dependence on professionals and tradespersons are shaded blue and those with lower than average dependence on these shaded red • Individual weekly income: Where workers earn income higher than the industry average, this is shaded blue; where income is lower than the industry average it is shaded red • Monthly housing loan repayment: Where housing loan repayments are lower than the industry average, this is shaded blue; where they are higher than average for the industry they are shaded red • Hours worked: Areas where workers are working higher than average hours compared to the forest industry as a whole (defined as a higher than average proportion working more than 40 hours a week) are shaded red. Areas with more part-time work than average are not given any colour but are indicated with the term ‘low’, as this can be both positive or negative for individual workers whereas there is a more consistent relationship between high work hours and negative outcomes for workers Where a UC/L had three or more characteristics indicating lower adaptability, forest industry workers are considered more vulnerable to change than the average, while where three or more characteristics indicated greater adaptability, forest industry workers in that UC/L are considered less vulnerable to change than the average. In addition to the characteristics shown in Table 5, a small number of UC/Ls had higher than average participation of women or Indigenous people in the forestry workforce. The UC/Ls with a higher proportion of female workers than average for the forest industry were Bacchus Marsh, Corryong, Hamilton, Horsham, Mansfield, Melbourne, Ocean Grove- Barwon Heads, Portland, Shoreham and Sunbury. These include a number of urban areas but also some rural areas, with no particular pattern or distribution noted. Orbost and Warrnambool have a higher proportion of Indigenous workers than average for the forest industry, both rural areas.

Table 6: Comparison of adaptive capacity of the population, dependence on the forest industry workforce, and population change in the top 54 forest industry dependent towns in Victoria City/town/locality name Statistical Division Proportion of employed labour Population change Population size Adaptive capacity force working in forest 01-06 (%) (persons, 2006) (high, low or mixed) industry (%) (Sum of FIS + ABS 2006) Albury-Wodonga (Wodonga Part) Ovens-Murray 1.79 +6.5% 29,713 High Alexandra Goulburn 9.04 -2.5% 2,142 Low Bairnsdale East Gippsland 2.89 +3.4% 11,284 Average Barham-Koondrook (Koondrook Mallee 6.67 +14.0% 804 Low Part) Beaufort Central Highlands 5.12 +5.8% 1,075 Low Beeac (L) Barwon 5.33 -3.8% 201 Low Benalla Goulburn 6.04 +3.9% 9,128 Low/average Broadford Goulburn 2.46 +12.6% 3,057 Average Bruthen (L) East Gippsland 21.26 +14.1% 621 Average Cann River (L) East Gippsland 41.70 +5.7% 223 Low Casterton Western District 14.18 -3.4% 1,654 Low Churchill Gippsland 3.66 -6.8% 4,591 Low Cockatoo Melbourne 1.21 +1.1% 3,542 Average Colac Barwon 6.32 +3.7% 10,859 Low/average Corryong Ovens-Murray 3.50 +1.6% 1,229 Low Dartmoor (L) Western District 73.08 -8.9% 215 Low Drouin Gippsland 1.51 +14.4% 6,856 Average Drysdale-Clifton Springs Barwon 0.88 N/A 10,217 Average Gisborne Loddon 1.13 +48.0% 6,396 High Glengarry (L) Gippsland 6.91 -3.5% 678 High Hamilton Western District 5.32 +4.0% 9,379 Average Hazeldene (L) Goulburn 4.27 -6.0% 536 Low Healesville Melbourne 3.43 +0.8% 7,357 Low Heyfield East Gippsland 56.65 -0.4% 1,460 Low/average Heywood Western District 19.96 +0.7% 1,285 Low Kilmore Goulburn 1.19 +29.5% 4,720 High Lakes Entrance East Gippsland 0.97 +2.7% 5,545 Average

City/town/locality name Statistical Division Proportion of employed labour Population change Population size Adaptive capacity force working in forest 01-06 (%) (persons, 2006) (high, low or mixed) industry (%) (Sum of FIS + ABS 2006) Leopold Barwon 0.77 +17.0% 8,162 High Mansfield Goulburn 5.10 +13.9% 2,846 Average Marlo (L) East Gippsland 15.54 -3.1% 343 Low Moe-Yallourn Gippsland 2.25 -1.5% 15,581 Low Morwell Gippsland 6.87 -2.5% 13,398 Low Myrtleford Ovens-Murray 22.79 +5.3% 2,726 Low Orbost East Gippsland 17.00 -2.1% 2,096 Low Oxley (L) Ovens-Murray 5.37 -2.5% 290 Average Pakenham Melbourne 1.15 +64.8% 18,813 Low Portland Western District 1.95 +1.3% 9,824 Average Powelltown (L) Melbourne 13.51 -2.0% 196 Low Romsey Loddon 1.37 +17.3% 3,523 High Rosedale East Gippsland 25.21 +0.8% 1,075 Low/average Seymour Goulburn 1.12 -8.1% 6,062 Low Toongabbie (L) Gippsland 4.10 -3.0% 464 Average Trafalgar Gippsland 1.81 -1.3% 2,301 Low Traralgon Gippsland 9.16 +9.5% 21,960 High Traralgon South (L) Gippsland 5.00 N/A 302 High Tyers (L) Gippsland 5.83 +8.4% 243 High Wallan Goulburn 1.33 +34.6% 5,409 High Wangaratta Ovens-Murray 2.35 +2.4% 16,846 Average Warragul Gippsland 2.80 +8.6% 11,501 High Woori Yallock Melbourne 2.55 -2.0% 1,998 Low Yarra Junction Melbourne 3.50 +3.2% 1,740 Low Yarram East Gippsland 14.15 -7.3% 1,716 Low Yinnar (L) Gippsland 3.97 -1.5% 588 High

4.1. Melbourne Statistical Division Forestry industry workers make up 0.7% of the employed workforce in the Statistical Division of Melbourne, with this region ranking eighth out of the 11 SDs in Victoria in terms of dependence on the forest industry. This is despite Melbourne employing the largest number of forest industry workers of any regions in Victoria, with a total of 14,381 forest industry workers employed in the region. Of these, 1,982 workers are employed in growing, services to forestry and primary processing (FIS), and in 2006 a further 12,399 workers were employed in secondary processing (ABS 2006). Over 1996 to 2006, forest industry employment grew by 11% according to ABS data. This included 95% growth in the number of jobs in the forestry sector and a decline of 31% in logging jobs. In the processing sector, jobs grew by 9% in the logging and sawmilling sector, by 11% in other wood product manufacturing and by 10% in pulp, paper and paperboard manufacturing over this period (ABS 1996, 2006). Key socio-economic characteristics of Melbourne SD were compared to the Victorian average, shown in the table on the following page. Overall, the population of Melbourne is likely to have slightly greater adaptive capacity compared to the broader Victorian population, with a slightly younger population, higher median household income, and higher proportion of adults having completed high school compared to the state average. When examining characteristics of forestry workers, workers in the Melbourne SD differed from the forest industry average in a number of ways that suggest differences in the adaptive capacity of these workers. In general, forest industry workers employed in Melbourne SD are likely to have greater adaptive capacity than the industry average: • Human capital Age: Workers are younger than average High school education: Workers are more likely to have completed high school than average Post-school qualifications: Workers are more likely to hold a university level qualification than average, while no significant differences were noted in the proportion of workers holding a certificate/diploma level qualification Occupation: Workers were more likely to be employed as managers/administrators or professionals than average; otherwise no specific patterns were observed • Financial capital Individual income: Workers earn higher than average income, particularly in the forestry, logging and services to forestry sectors, and Housing loan repayments: Workers typically had higher housing repayments in this region compared to others.

Table 6: Socio-economic characteristics of Melbourne SD and Victoria, 2001-06 11 SD: Melbourne State: Victoria Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 3,592,766 +6.7% 4,932,422 +5.8% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.4% +10.2% 0.6% +1.0% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.96 0.00% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 36 years +1 years 37 years +1 years % population under 14 18.8% -4.3% 19.3% -5.5% % population over 65 12.8% +6.6% 13.7% +8.1% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $1,078 N/A $1,022 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 20.7% +81.9% 17.8% +87.1% % low income households (<$500) 20.0% -27.9% 21.9% -29.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,300 N/A $1,252 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 5.4% -18.7% 5.4% -20.2% Labour force participation 65.5% +1.6% 64.4% +1.9% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 54.6% +9.8% 48.7% +8.8% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 552,749 +2.4% 786,667 +1.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force employed in forest 0.7% -7.9% 0.8% -10.5% industry (ABS) Forestry & logging (ABS) 400 -7.6% 1,602 jobs -17.2% jobs Wood & paper product manufacturing 11,656 +0.9% 17,541 -0.6% (ABS) jobs jobs % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 47% N/A 67.9% N/A

• Working conditions Full-time, part-time and casual workers: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted Working hours: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted Staff turnover: Staff turnover was slightly lower in this SD than the industry average

11 Note that the sources used for data in this and subsequent tables are described in detail in Appendix 1.

• Workforce participation Gender: More women participate in the forestry workforce in this region compared to the average, across all forest industry sectors, and Indigenous participation: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted, except that a higher than average proportion of workers in the logging sector located in this SD identified as Indigenous. While there are a high number of forestry workers in Melbourne SD, the region as a whole is not highly reliant on the forest industry for employment. This is largely because there is a very large labour force in the city of Melbourne, which forms a large part of Melbourne SD. There are, however, six UC/Ls outside the main boundaries of the city of Melbourne that have high dependence on forest industry employment: Cockatoo, Healesville, Pakenham, Powelltown, Woori Yallock and Yarra Junction. All of these except Pakenham are located in the Yarra Ranges north- east of the city of Melbourne, where employment is largely dependent on the native forest sector. The socio-economic characteristics of each are briefly described on the following pages. All but Cockatoo have characteristics suggesting lower adaptive capacity compared to the regional average, while Cockatoo has some characteristics that are associated with higher adaptive capacity, and some associated with a lower ability to adapt to change than the regional average.

4.1.1. Cockatoo SLA: Cardinia – North, SSD: South Eastern Outer Melbourne, SD: Melbourne Table 7: Socio-economic characteristics of Cockatoo and Melbourne SD, 2001-06 Cockatoo SD: Melbourne Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 3,542 +1.1% 3,592,766 +6.7% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.3% -42.1% 0.4% +10.2% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 1.01 0.00% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 32 years +3 years 36 years +1 years % population under 14 27.6% -10.8% 18.8% -4.3% % population over 65 3.0% -9.4% 12.8% +6.6% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $1,050 N/A $1,078 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 10.4% +169.3% 20.7% +81.9% % low income households (<$500) 14.1% -33.9% 20.0% -27.9% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,083 N/A $1,300 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 5.4% -18.4% 5.4% -18.7% Labour force participation 72.9% +0.7% 65.5% +1.6% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 37.7% +13.4% 54.6% +9.8% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 324 -13.8% 552,749 +2.4% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 1.3% -1.8% 0.7% -7.9% Forestry & logging (ABS) 0 jobs 0.0% 400 -7.6% jobs Wood & paper product manufacturing (ABS) 22 jobs +4.8% 11,656 +0.9% jobs % workers in plantation sector (FIS) Unknown N/A 47% N/A Overall, Cockatoo has a mix of characteristics that means it differs somewhat to the regional average. While being similar in terms of median household income and unemployment, the median age of the population is lower than the regional average and housing repayments lower, suggesting higher than average adaptive capacity, but fewer than average adults have completed high school and school enrolments declined rapidly over 2001 to 2006, suggesting lower adaptive capacity in terms of human capital and access to local services. When socio-economic characteristics of the Cockatoo forest industry workforce were compared to the forest industry average, workers were identified as having several key characteristics that are likely to be associated with lower adaptability to change than the industry average. Workers were less likely to have completed high school than the industry average, with only 13% having completed high school; were more likely to work as production and transport workers or tradespersons, and less likely to be employed as managers/administrators or professionals, than average; a higher than average proportion of workers worked more than 40 hours per week, and there was greater male participation than average, with 100% participation compared to the 82% average across all of Victoria.

4.1.2. Healesville SLA: Yarra Ranges – Central, SSD: Yarra Ranges Shire – Part A, SD: Melbourne

Table 8: Socio-economic characteristics of Healesville and Melbourne SD, 2001-06 Healesville SD: Melbourne Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 7,357 +0.8% 3,592,766 +6.7% people people Proportion of population identifying as 3.0% +13.0% 0.4% +10.2% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.94 -0.02% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 40 years +3 years 36 years +1 years % population under 14 20.0% -13.2% 18.8% -4.3% % population over 65 15.6% +20.2% 12.8% +6.6% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $774 N/A $1,078 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 8.4% +153.1% 20.7% +81.9% % low income households (<$500) 26.8% -28.0% 20.0% -27.9% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,040 N/A $1,300 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 5.7% -16.4% 5.4% -18.7% Labour force participation 60.1% -6.2% 65.5% +1.6% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 34.6% +15.4% 54.6% +9.8% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 1,419 -9.7% 552,749 +2.4% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 1.9% +2.0% 0.7% -7.9% Forestry & logging (ABS) 18 jobs 0.0% 400 -7.6% jobs Wood & paper product manufacturing 42 jobs +10.5% 11,656 +0.9% (ABS) jobs % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 6.0% N/A 47% N/A Healesville has characteristics of a community with lower adaptive capacity than the Melbourne SD average, experiencing slower than average population growth over 2001 to 2006, and having higher median age, lower household income, and fewer adults having completed high school than average, although unemployment is similar to the regional average. When socio-economic characteristics of forest industry workers in Healesville were compared to the forest industry average, workers were mostly similar to the industry average although they were somewhat younger than average; were less likely than other forest industry workers to have completed high school; and there was greater male participation in the forest industry compared to the industry average.

4.1.3. Pakenham SLA: Cardinia – Pakenham, SSD: South Eastern Outer Melbourne, SD: Melbourne Table 9: Socio-economic characteristics of Pakenham and Melbourne SD, 2001-06 Pakenham SD: Melbourne Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 18,813 +64.8% 3,592,766 +6.7% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.6% +4.4% 0.4% +10.2% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.94 +0.02% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 31 years +1 years 36 years +1 years % population under 14 26.1% -7.7% 18.8% -4.3% % population over 65 10.5% -4.8% 12.8% +6.6% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $991 N/A $1,078 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 9.6% +157.4% 20.7% +81.9% % low income households (<$500) 19.0% -42.2% 20.0% -27.9% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,300 N/A $1,300 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 5.3% -16.9% 5.4% -18.7% Labour force participation 67.4% +5.0% 65.5% +1.6% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 34.7% +29.4% 54.6% +9.8% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 5,101 +36.5% 552,749 +2.4% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 1.1% -5.4% 0.7% -7.9% Forestry & logging (ABS) 4 jobs +400.0% 400 -7.6% jobs Wood & paper product manufacturing 86 jobs +62.3% 11,656 +0.9% (ABS) jobs % workers in plantation sector (FIS) Unknown N/A 47% N/A Pakenham has characteristics of a community with lower adaptive capacity than the Melbourne SD regional average. While experiencing very rapid population growth and having a younger than average population, median household income is lower than average while housing repayments are as the same as the regional average, indicating low financial capacity, and fewer adults have completed high school, than the regional average. When characteristics of Pakenham’s forest industry workers were compared to the forest industry average, forestry workers were younger than average, with 56% of workers aged under 35 (mirroring the low median age of Pakenham as a whole); were less likely to have completed high school; were more likely to be employed as tradespersons, and less likely to be employed as managers/administrators or labourers; had higher than average housing repayments, reflecting high housing costs in Pakenham; were more likely to work 40 hour a week than average; and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 90% participation. This suggests workers have some key stressors that may reduce adaptive capacity compared to the industry average, particularly having low financial capital and high work hours compared to the average.

4.1.4. Powelltown (L) SLA: Yarra Ranges – Central, SSD: Yarra Ranges Shire – Part A, SD: Melbourne Table 10: Socio-economic characteristics of Powelltown and Melbourne SD, 2001-06 Powelltown (L) SD: Melbourne Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 196 -2.0% 3,592,766 +6.7% people people Proportion of population identifying as 3.1% +310.0% 0.4% +10.2% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 1.09% -0.03% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 37 years +4 years 36 years +1 years % population under 14 25.0% -8.5% 18.8% -4.3% % population over 65 5.1% -38.5% 12.8% +6.6% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $664 N/A $1,078 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 0.0% -100.0% 20.7% +81.9% % low income households (<$500) 31.4% -27.9% 20.0% -27.9% Median housing repayment (monthly) $681 N/A $1,300 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 3.9% -69.6% 5.4% -18.7% Labour force participation 55.4% +4.2% 65.5% +1.6% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 21.2% +9.1% 54.6% +9.8% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments N/A N/A 552,749 +2.4% people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 12.2% -44.4% 0.7% -7.9% Forestry & logging (ABS) 0 jobs -100.0% 400 -7.6% jobs Wood & paper product manufacturing 9 jobs -10.0% 11,656 +0.9% (ABS) jobs % workers in plantation sector (FIS) Unknown N/A 47% N/A

Overall, Powelltown has characteristics of a community with lower adaptive capacity than the Melbourne SD average, experiencing population decline over 2001 to 2006, and having lower household income, and fewer adults having completed high school than average, although unemployment is low. When socio-economic characteristics of forest industry workers in Powelltown were compared to the forest industry average, no key differences were identified, largely because numbers of workers recorded by the ABS are too small for identification of meaningful differences to the average for the workforce as a whole.

4.1.5. Woori Yallock SLA: Yarra Ranges – Central, SSD: Yarra Ranges Shire – Part A, SD: Melbourne Table 11: Socio-economic characteristics of Woori Yallock and Melbourne SD, 2001-06 Woori Yallock SD: Melbourne Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 1,998 -2.0% 3,592,766 +6.7% people people Proportion of population identifying as 1.0% +111.6% 0.4% +10.2% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.95 0.00% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 30 years +1 years 36 years +1 years % population under 14 25.6% -9.3% 18.8% -4.3% % population over 65 8.4% +10.9% 12.8% +6.6% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $821 N/A $1,078 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 4.6% +80.9% 20.7% +81.9% % low income households (<$500) 20.9% -40.1% 20.0% -27.9% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,062 N/A $1,300 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 5.2% -28.4% 5.4% -18.7% Labour force participation 68.3% +6.5% 65.5% +1.6% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 29.3% +24.9% 54.6% +9.8% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 204 -26.9% 552,749 +2.4% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 1.9% +19.6% 0.7% -7.9% Forestry & logging (ABS) 3 jobs 0.0% 400 -7.6% jobs Wood & paper product manufacturing 14 jobs +40.0% 11,656 +0.9% (ABS) jobs % workers in plantation sector (FIS) Unknown N/A 47% N/A Woori Yallock has a mix of characteristics suggesting potentially lower adaptive capacity compared to the Melbourne SD average in some respects. It experienced population decline over 2001 to 2006, and has a lower median age, lower household income and housing repayments, and a much lower proportion of adults having completed high school than the regional average. When the socio-economic characteristics of Woori Yallock’s forest industry workers were compared to the industry average, they were younger than average, with 63% of workers aged under 35; were less likely than other forest industry workers to have completed high school; and were more likely to be employed as labourers or production and transport workers, and less likely to work as managers/administrators or tradespersons, than average. This suggests mostly similar characteristics to the industry average, although with lower formal education than the average.

4.1.6. Yarra Junction SLA: Yarra Ranges – North, SSD: Yarra Ranges Shires – Part A, SD: Melbourne Table 12: Socio-economic characteristics of Yarra Junction and Melbourne SD, 2001-06 Yarra Junction SD: Melbourne Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2001- 2006 Change 06 2001-06 Total population 1,740 +3.2% 3,592,766 +6.7% people people Proportion of population identifying as 1.0% +7.1% 0.4% +10.2% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.93 -0.04 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 41 years +2 years 36 years +1 years % population under 14 19.3% -16.6% 18.8% -4.3% % population over 65 18.3% +10.5% 12.8% +6.6% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2001- 2006 Change 06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $768 N/A $1,078 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 7.1% +84.4% 20.7% +81.9% % low income households (<$500) 27.6% -31.2% 20.0% -27.9% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,066 N/A $1,300 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2001- 2006 Change 06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 5.1% -28.4% 5.4% -18.7% Labour force participation 58.0% +1.8% 65.5% +1.6% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2001- 2006 Change 06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 30.5% +6.9% 54.6% +9.8% Local services 2006 Change 2001- 2006 Change 06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 1,350 -1.6% 552,749 +2.4% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2001- 2006 Change 06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 2.4% +28.3% 0.7% -7.9% Forestry & logging (ABS) 5 jobs -16.7% 400 -7.6% jobs Wood & paper product manufacturing 13 jobs +116.7% 11,656 +0.9% (ABS) jobs % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 0.0% N/A 47% N/A Yarra Junction has characteristics suggesting lower adaptive capacity than the Melbourne SD region as a whole, with an older population, lower median household income and a higher proportion of low income earning households, and fewer adults having completed high school compared to the regional average. However, unemployment is similar to the regional average. When characteristics of Yarra Junction’s forest industry workers were compared to the industry average, they were more likely than other forest industry workers to have completed high school, with 44% having completed high school; more likely to work part-time than the industry average, and there was greater male participation (100%) than average. This suggests mostly similar characteristics to the industry as a whole, although with higher formal education than the average.

4.2. Barwon Statistical Division Forest industry workers make up 0.9% of the employed workforce in the Statistical Division of Barwon, with this region ranking sixth out of the 11 SDs in Victoria in terms of dependence on the forest industry. A total of 1,231 forest industry workers are employed in the industry in Barwon. Of these, 658 are employed in growing, services to forestry and primary processing sectors (FIS) and a further 555 in secondary processing (ABS 2006). Over 1996 to 2006, forest industry employment grew by 7% according to ABS data. This included 16% decline in the number of jobs in the forestry sector and a decline of 51% in logging jobs. In the processing sector, jobs grew by 4% in the logging and sawmilling sector, by 7% in other wood product manufacturing and by 82% in pulp, paper and paperboard manufacturing over this period (ABS 1996, 2006). Key socio-economic characteristics of Barwon SD were compared to the Victorian average, shown in the table on the following page. Overall, the population of Barwon has characteristics suggesting slightly lower adaptive capacity compared to the state average, with a slightly higher median age, lower median household income, higher unemployment and a lower proportion of adults who have completed high school compared to Victoria as a whole. When examining characteristics of forestry workers, workers in the Barwon SD differed from the forest industry average in a number of ways. In general, forest industry workers employed in Barwon are likely to have similar adaptive capacity to the industry average: • Human capital Age: Workers are younger than average High school education: No significant differences were noted in the proportion of workers to have completed high school than average Post-school qualifications: No significant differences were noted in the proportion of workers holding a certificate/diploma level qualification or university level qualification Occupation: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted • Financial capital Individual income: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted Housing loan repayments: Workers typically had average housing repayments in this region compared to others • Working conditions Full-time, part-time and casual workers: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted Working hours: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted, except that a higher than average proportion of workers in the logging sector were more likely to work 49 hours or more than those located in other regions Staff turnover: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted

Table 13: Socio-economic characteristics of Barwon SD and Victoria, 2001-06 SD: Barwon State: Victoria Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 254,502 +5.4% 4,932,422 +5.8% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.7% +9.6% 0.6% +1.0% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.96 0.00% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 38 years +2 years 37 years +1 years % population under 14 19.8% -6.2% 19.3% -5.5% % population over 65 15.8% +9.4% 13.7% +8.1% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $901 N/A $1,022 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 12.4% +110.1% 17.8% +87.1% % low income households (<$500) 25.0% -32.1% 21.9% -29.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,083 N/A $1,252 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 5.9% -26.8% 5.4% -20.2% Labour force participation 62.2% +3.1% 64.4% +1.9% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 40.0% +12.0% 48.7% +8.8% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 43,520 +1.8% 786,667 +1.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 0.9% -16.6% 0.8% -10.5% Forestry & logging (ABS) 104 jobs -16.1% 1,602 jobs -17.2% Wood & paper product manufacturing 896 jobs -4.6% 17,541 -0.6% (ABS) jobs % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 86% N/A 67.9% N/A • Workforce participation Gender: More women participate in the forestry workforce in this region compared to the average, in the forestry sector, but less women participate in this region compared to the average, as log sawmilling and timber dressing workers, and other wood product manufacturing workers, and Indigenous participation: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted. Four UC/Ls within this region have high dependence on forest industry employment: Beeac, Colac, Drysdale-Clifton Springs, and Leopold. The socio-economic characteristics of each are described on the following pages. Of these UC/Ls, Leopold has characteristics suggesting higher than average adaptive capacity, Drysdale-Clifton Springs has characteristics similar to the regional average, while Colac may have slightly lower adaptive capacity than the Barwon average and Beeac has characteristics suggesting it is experiencing rural decline and hence has lower capacity to adapt to change.

4.2.1. Beeac (L) SLA: Colac-Otway – North, SSD: West Barwon, SD: Barwon Table 14: Socio-economic characteristics of Beeac and Barwon SD, 2001-06 Beeac (L) SD: Barwon Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 201 -3.8% 254,502 +5.4% people people Proportion of population identifying as 2.5% +250.0% 0.7% +9.6% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.95 -0.12% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 43 years +8 years 38 years +2 years % population under 14 19.4% -11.8% 19.8% -6.2% % population over 65 19.4% +6.7% 15.8% +9.4% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $660 N/A $901 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 0.0% -100.0% 12.4% +110.1% % low income households (<$500) 33.3% -45.8% 25.0% -32.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $600 N/A $1,083 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 3.8% -100.0% 5.9% -26.8% Labour force participation 53.1% +0.9% 62.2% +3.1% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 15.0% -6.1% 40.0% +12.0% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 27 people -10.0% 43,520 +1.8% people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 4.0% N/A 0.9% -16.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 0 jobs 0.0% 104 jobs -16.1% Wood & paper product manufacturing 3 jobs 300.0% 896 jobs -4.6% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) Unknown N/A 86% N/A

Overall, Beeac has characteristics of a community with lower adaptive capacity than the Barwon average, experiencing population decline over 2001 to 2006, and having a higher median age, lower household income, and fewer adults having completed high school than average, although unemployment is low. When socio-economic characteristics of forest industry workers in Beeac were compared to the forest industry average, no key differences were identified, largely because numbers of workers recorded by the ABS are too small for identification of meaningful differences to the average for the workforce as a whole.

4.2.2. Colac SLA: Colac-Otway – Colac, SSD: West Barwon, SD: Barwon Table 15: Socio-economic characteristics of Colac and Barwon SD, 2001-06 Colac SD: Barwon Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 10,859 +3.7% 254,502 +5.4% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.7% +59.0% 0.7% +9.6% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.92 0.00% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 39 years +1 years 38 years +2 years % population under 14 19.9% -9.0% 19.8% -6.2% % population over 65 20.2% +7.4% 15.8% +9.4% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $763 N/A $901 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 7.0% +182.2% 12.4% +110.1%

% low income households (<$500) 29.8% -31.4% 25.0% -32.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $911 N/A $1,083 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 4.7% -23.0% 5.9% -26.8% Labour force participation 60.3% +5.7% 62.2% +3.1% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 29.0% +16.5% 40.0% +12.0% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 2,017 +4.1% 43,520 +1.8% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 4.8% -8.4% 0.9% -16.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 35 jobs -5.4% 104 jobs -16.1% Wood & paper product manufacturing (ABS) 193 jobs +6.0% 896 jobs -4.6% % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 92.4% N/A 86% N/A Overall, Colac has characteristics relatively similar to the Barwon regional average, but with a lower median household income, lower median housing repayments, a slightly lower unemployment rate and labour force participation, and fewer adults having completed high school than the regional average. This suggests potentially lower adaptive capacity compared to the regional average, although the differences are not great with regard to most of the socio-economic indicators examined. When the characteristics of Colac’s forest industry workers were compared to the forest industry average, they were younger than average, with 44% of workers aged under 35; were less likely than other forest industry workers to have completed high school; were more likely to be employed as production and transport workers or labourers, and less likely to be employed as managers/administrators, professionals or tradespersons than the industry average; had lower than average housing loan repayments; and there was greater male participation (91%). This suggests relatively similar characteristics to the industry average, although workers in unskilled occupations with little formal educational attainment may have lower adaptive capacity despite their low housing repayments suggesting higher than average financial capital.

4.2.3. Drysdale-Clifton Springs SLA: Greater Geelong – Part B, SSD: East Barwon, SD: Barwon Table 16: Socio-economic characteristics of Drysdale-Clifton Springs and Barwon SD, 2001-06 Drysdale-Clifton Springs SD: Barwon Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 10,217 N/A 254,502 +5.4% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.5% N/A 0.7% +9.6% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.94 N/A 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 41 years N/A 38 years +2 years % population under 14 20.9% N/A 19.8% -6.2% % population over 65 18.6% N/A 15.8% +9.4% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $876 N/A $901 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 9.5% N/A 12.4% +110.1% % low income households (<$500) 24.6% N/A 25.0% -32.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,100 N/A $1,083 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 5.2% N/A 5.9% -26.8% Labour force participation 58.2% N/A 62.2% +3.1% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 35.2% N/A 40.0% +12.0% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 3,447 +0.2% 43,520 +1.8% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 0.6% N/A 0.9% -16.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 3 jobs 0.0% 104 jobs -16.1% Wood & paper product manufacturing 24 jobs +4.3% 896 jobs -4.6% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) Unknown N/A 86% N/A

Overall, Drysdale-Clifton Springs has similar characteristics to the Barwon regional average, except than fewer adults have completed high school than the regional average. It was not possible to identify change over 2001 to 2006 due to changes in how this UC/L was defined that mean data are not comparable over time. When characteristics of forest industry workers in Drysdale-Clifton Springs were compared to the industry average, they were somewhat less likely than other forest industry workers to have completed high school, with only 28% having completed high school; were more likely to be employed as tradespersons, and less likely to be employed as managers/administrators or production and transport workers than average; were more likely to work part-time; and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 85% participation. This suggests mostly similar characteristics to the industry average.

4.2.4. Leopold SLA: Bellarine – Inner, SSD: Greater Geelong City – Part A, SD: Barwon Table 17: Socio-economic characteristics of Leopold and Barwon SD, 2001-06 Leopold SD: Barwon Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 8,162 +17.0% 254,502 +5.4% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.5% -8.1% 0.7% +9.6% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.94 +0.01% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 36 years +2 years 38 years +2 years % population under 14 22.3% -9.4% 19.8% -6.2% % population over 65 14.4% +28.5% 15.8% +9.4% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $1,072 N/A $901 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 12.2% +81.5% 12.4% +110.1% % low income households (<$500) 17.2% -35.0% 25.0% -32.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,191 N/A $1,083 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 3.5% -36.4% 5.9% -26.8% Labour force participation 65.0% -0.7% 62.2% +3.1% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 35.8% +7.7% 40.0% +12.0% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 608 -0.1% 43,520 +1.8% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 0.6% -42.1% 0.9% -16.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 0 jobs 0.0% 104 jobs -16.1% Wood & paper product manufacturing 23 jobs -28.1% 896 jobs -4.6% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) Unknown N/A 86% N/A Leopold has characteristics of a community with high adaptive capacity, but some potential stressors. The population of Leopold is younger than the Barwon region average, with higher than average median household income, low unemployment, high labour force participation, the very rapid population growth and somewhat higher than average housing loan repayments may create stress on local households and local services that reduce resilience to change. When characteristics of Leopold’s forest industry workers were compared to the forest industry average, they were younger than average, with 69% of workers aged under 35; were more likely to be employed as tradespersons or labourers, and less likely to be employed as managers/administrators or professionals, than the industry average; and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 87% participation. This suggests relatively similar characteristics to the industry average but with many workers in unskilled occupations potentially having lower adaptive capacity than the industry average.

4.3. Western District Statistical Division Forest industry workers make up 1.1% of the employed workforce in the Statistical Division of the Western District, with this region ranking fourth out of the 11 SDs in Victoria in terms of dependence on the forest industry. A total of 918 forest industry workers are employed in the region, with 743 workers are employed in the growing, services to forestry and primary processing sectors (FIS) and a further 175 workers in secondary processing (ABS 2006). Over 1996 to 2006, forest industry employment grew by 32% according to ABS data. This included 105% growth in the number of jobs in the forestry sector and a decline of 35% in logging jobs. In the processing sector, jobs fell by 14% in the logging and sawmilling sector, and grew by 172% in other wood product manufacturing over this period (ABS 1996, 2006). Key socio-economic characteristics of the Western District SD were compared to the Victorian average, shown in the table on the following page. Overall, the population o0f the Western District has characteristics suggesting lower adaptive capacity compared to the state average, with slower population growth, an older population, lower household income, and a lower proportion of adults having completed high school compared to Victoria as a whole. The unemployment rate is below the state average, suggesting high employment and also limited labour force availability in the region, a key issue as the forest industry is expanding in the region and expected to continue to grow in coming years. When examining characteristics of forestry workers, workers in the Western District SD differed from the forest industry average in a number of ways. Overall, forest industry workers employed in this region are likely to have lower adaptive capacity than the industry average: • Human capital Age: Workers are younger than average High school education: A mix of patterns was found, with workers in some sectors (wood and paper product manufacturing in particular) less likely to have completed high school than average, and those in other sectors more likely to have completed high school Post-school qualifications: Workers in the wood and paper product manufacturing sectors are less likely to hold a certificate/diploma than average Occupation: Workers were more likely to be employed as production and transport workers than average; otherwise no specific patterns were observed • Financial capital Individual income: Workers earn lower than average income, across the forestry, logging and services to forestry sectors Housing loan repayments: Workers typically had lower housing repayments in this region compared to others • Working conditions Full-time, part-time and casual workers: The Western District has a higher than average proportion of part-time and casual workers Working hours: Logging sector workers were more likely to work 49 hours or more in this region compared to others Staff turnover: Staff turnover was slightly lower in this SD than the industry average

Table 18: Socio-economic characteristics of Western District SD and Victoria, 2001-06 SD: Western District State: Victoria Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 97,852 +1.6% 4,932,422 +5.8% people people Proportion of population identifying as 1.1% +36.2% 0.6% +1.0% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.97 -0.02% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 39 years +2 years 37 years +1 years % population under 14 21.0% -8.6% 19.3% -5.5% % population over 65 16.4% +10.7% 13.7% +8.1% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $850 N/A $1,022 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 10.6% +116.8% 17.8% +87.1% % low income households (<$500) 25.9% -33.6% 21.9% -29.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $920 N/A $1,252 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 4.7% -22.1% 5.4% -20.2% Labour force participation 65.4% +3.0% 64.4% +1.9% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 32.6% +11.1% 48.7% +8.8% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 17,631 +2.6% 786,667 +1.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 1.1% -19.5% 0.8% -10.5% Forestry & logging (ABS) 115 jobs -40.4% 1,602 jobs -17.2% Wood & paper product manufacturing 404 jobs 0.0% 17,541 -0.6% (ABS) jobs % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 97% N/A 67.9% N/A • Workforce participation Gender: More women participate in the forestry workforce in this region compared to the average, across all forest industry sectors, and Indigenous participation: Indigenous participation was higher in this region compared to the industry average, participation was higher in the wood and paper manufacturing and other wood product manufacturing sectors. Five UC/Ls in this region that high dependence on forest industry employment: Casterton, Dartmoor, Hamilton, Heywood and Portland. The socio-economic characteristics of each are described on the following pages. Of these UC/Ls, two have characteristics relatively similar to the regional average (Hamilton and Portland), and three have characteristics suggesting lower adaptive capacity than the regional average (Casterton, Dartmoor and Heywood).

4.3.1. Casterton SLA: Glenelg – North, SSD: Glenelg, SD: Western District Table 19: Socio-economic characteristics of Casterton and Western District SD, 2001-06 Casterton Western District Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 1,654 -3.4% 97,852 +1.6% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.8% +253.4% 1.1% +36.2% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.95 -0.01% 0.97 -0.02% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 48 years +2 years 39 years +2 years % population under 14 18.9% +0.6% 21.0% -8.6% % population over 65 29.7% +10.9% 16.4% +10.7% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $583 N/A $850 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 2.2% -2.5% 10.6% +116.8% % low income households (<$500) 38.3% -28.4% 25.9% -33.6% Median housing repayment (monthly) $553 N/A $920 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 8.0% +31.7% 4.7% -22.1% Labour force participation 49.0% -2.5% 65.4% +3.0% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 21.1% +12.0% 32.6% +11.1% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 479 -2.6% 17,631 +2.6% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 8.1% +9.7% 1.1% -19.5% Forestry & logging (ABS) 17 jobs -29.2% 115 jobs -40.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 30 jobs +42.9% 404 jobs 0.0% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 100.0% N/A 97% N/A Casterton has characteristics suggesting lower adaptive capacity compared to the Western District regional average, experiencing population decline over 2001 to 2006 and having an older median age and higher proportion of people aged over 65, lower household income, and higher unemployment than average; in addition, fewer adults had completed high school than the regional average and school enrolments declined over 2001 to 2006. When the socio-economic characteristics of Casterton’s forest industry workers were compared to the industry average, they were less likely to have completed high school, with only 15% having completed high school; were more likely to be employed as labourers or production and transport workers, and less likely to work as managers/administrators than the industry average; had lower than average housing loan repayments, likely reflecting low housing costs in Casterton; were more likely to work part-time than the industry average, and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 85% participation. This suggests some lack of job security and low formal education, potentially reducing adaptive capacity of workers in Casterton compared to the industry average.

4.3.2. Dartmoor SLA: Glenelg – Heywood, SSD: Glenelg, SD: Western District Table 20: Socio-economic characteristics of Dartmoor and Western District SD, 2001-06 Dartmoor SD: Western District Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 215 -8.9% 97,852 +1.6% people people Proportion of population identifying as 2.8% +280.0% 1.1% +36.2% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 1.13 -0.13% 0.97 -0.02% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 42 years +6 years 39 years +2 years % population under 14 18.1% -26.8% 21.0% -8.6% % population over 65 19.5% +71.6% 16.4% +10.7% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $716 N/A $850 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 4.8% +51.0% 10.6% +116.8% % low income households (<$500) 30.1% -5.6% 25.9% -33.6% Median housing repayment (monthly) $650 N/A $920 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 5.5% -34.5% 4.7% -22.1% Labour force participation 63.2% +1.2% 65.4% +3.0% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 26.8% +64.3% 32.6% +11.1% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 48 -15.8% 17,631 +2.6% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 50.0% -18.3% 1.1% -19.5% Forestry & logging (ABS) 5 jobs -66.7% 115 jobs -40.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 47 jobs -2.1% 404 jobs 0.0% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 98.0% N/A 97% N/A Dartmoor has characteristics suggesting somewhat lower adaptive capacity than the regional average, having experienced rapid population decline over 2001 to 2006, and having a slightly high median age, lower household income, and higher unemployment rate than the regional average, with fewer adults having completed high school than the regional average and school enrolments declining rapidly. When characteristics of Dartmoor’s forest industry workers were compared to the industry average, they were older than average, with 20% of workers aged 55 and over; were more likely to be employed as labourers or production and transport workers, and less likely to work as managers/administrators or tradespersons, than average; and had lower than average housing repayments, likely reflecting low housing costs in Dartmoor. This suggests forestry workers may have somewhat lower adaptive capacity than the industry average.

4.3.3. Hamilton SLA: Southern Grampians - Hamilton, SSD: Glenelg, SD: Western District Table 21: Socio-economic characteristics of Hamilton and Western District SD, 2001-06 Hamilton SD: Western District Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 9,379 +4.0% 97,852 +1.6% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.8% +12.5% 1.1% +36.2% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.92 -0.02% 0.97 -0.02% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 41 years +2 years 39 years +2 years % population under 14 18.6% -7.2% 21.0% -8.6% % population over 65 20.2% +8.6% 16.4% +10.7% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $760 N/A $850 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 9.4% +186.8% 10.6% +116.8% % low income households (<$500) 27.3% -35.6% 25.9% -33.6% Median housing repayment (monthly) $823 N/A $920 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 4.6% -25.8% 4.7% -22.1% Labour force participation 61.1% +6.5% 65.4% +3.0% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 30.5% +10.7% 32.6% +11.1% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 2,823 +6.5% 17,631 +2.6% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 1.2% -41.7% 1.1% -19.5% Forestry & logging (ABS) 14 jobs -68.2% 115 jobs -40.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 36 jobs +9.1% 404 jobs 0.0% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 99.3% N/A 97% N/A Hamilton has characteristics relatively similar to the Western District regional average, although with higher population growth, a slightly older population, and slightly lower median household income and labour force participation. This suggests similar adaptive capacity to the regional average. When characteristics of Hamilton’s forest industry workers were compared to the industry average, they were younger than average, with 43% of workers aged under 35; were more likely to be employed as professionals, and less likely to work as labourers or production and transport workers than the industry average; earned lower income but also reported lower than average housing repayments; and there was greater female participation (24%) than average. This suggests a mix of characteristics, some of which may be associated with greater adaptive capacity and some with lower adaptive capacity than the industry average.

4.3.4. Heywood SLA: Glenelg – Heywood, SSD: Glenelg, SD: Western District Table 22: Socio-economic characteristics of Heywood and Western District SD, 2001-06 Heywood SD: Western District Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 1,285 +0.7% 97,852 +1.6% people people Proportion of population identifying as 8.9% +23.3% 1.1% +36.2% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.90 +0.01% 0.97 -0.02% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 43 years +3 years 39 years +2 years % population under 14 18.8% -8.6% 21.0% -8.6% % population over 65 22.0% +9.9% 16.4% +10.7% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $616 N/A $850 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 5.8% +172.6% 10.6% +116.8% % low income households (<$500) 35.9% -28.2% 25.9% -33.6% Median housing repayment (monthly) $715 N/A $920 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 8.5% -13.6% 4.7% -22.1% Labour force participation 53.5% +0.5% 65.4% +3.0% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 21.2% +10.4% 32.6% +11.1% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 414 -15.3% 17,631 +2.6% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 4.8% -20.8% 1.1% -19.5% Forestry & logging (ABS) 3 jobs 0.0% 115 jobs -40.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 19 jobs -20.8% 404 jobs 0.0% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 98.0% N/A 97% N/A Heywood has characteristics suggesting lower adaptive capacity compared to the Western District regional average, with lower population growth, an older median age and higher proportion of people aged over 65, lower household income, and higher unemployment than average; in addition, fewer adults had completed high school than the regional average. When the socio-economic characteristics of Heywood’s forest industry workers were compared to the industry average, they were younger than average, with 43% of workers aged under 35; were much less likely than other forest industry workers to have completed high school; were more likely to be employed as production and transport workers or labourers, and less likely to work as managers/administrators or professionals; earned lower income; were more likely to work part-time; and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 100% participation. This suggests forestry workers have lower adaptive capacity than the industry average.

4.3.5. Portland SLA: Glenelg - Portland, SSD: Glenelg, SD: Western District Table 23: Socio-economic characteristics of Portland and Western District SD, 2001-06 Portland SD: Western District Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 9,824 +1.3% 97,852 +1.6% people people Proportion of population identifying as 2.0% +64.1% 1.1% +36.2% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.99 -0.01% 0.97 -0.02% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 39 years +4 years 39 years +2 years % population under 14 20.1% -4.2% 21.0% -8.6% % population over 65 16.0% +16.8% 16.4% +10.7% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $817 N/A $850 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 10.5% +183.6% 10.6% +116.8% % low income households (<$500) 28.2% -32.0% 25.9% -33.6% Median housing repayment (monthly) $900 N/A $920 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 7.8% -22.2% 4.7% -22.1% Labour force participation 62.6% +2.7% 65.4% +3.0% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 28.6% +12.5% 32.6% +11.1% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 2,233 +4.6% 17,631 +2.6% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 1.1% -27.6% 1.1% -19.5% Forestry & logging (ABS) 9 jobs +28.6% 115 jobs -40.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 38 jobs -26.9% 404 jobs 0.0% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 100.0% N/A 97% N/A Overall, Portland has characteristics similar to the average for the Western District as a whole, but with higher unemployment, lower labour force participation and a lower proportion of adults who have completed high school than average. This suggests adaptive capacity may be slightly lower than the regional average. When characteristics of Portland’s forest industry workers were compared to the industry average, they were more likely to have completed high school, with 40% having completed high school; were more likely to be employed as production and transport workers, and less likely to be employed as professionals or tradespersons, than the industry average; had lower than average household income; and there was greater female participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 30% participation. This suggests workers in Portland have some characteristics assisting adaptive capacity, such as more formal education attainment than the average, but lower financial capital which may reduce adaptive capacity.

4.4. Central Highlands Statistical Division Forest industry workers make up 0.8% of the employed workforce in the Statistical Division of the Central Highlands, with this region ranking sevenths out of the 11 SDs in Victoria in terms of dependence on the forest industry. In total, 472 forest industry workers are employed in this region, of which 262 are employed in the growing, services to forestry and primary processing sectors (FIS) and a further 210 in the secondary processing sector (ABS 2006). Over 1996 to 2006, forest industry employment declined by 34% according to ABS data. This change included 91% growth in the number of jobs in the forestry sector, while in the processing sector, jobs fell by 65% in the logging and sawmilling sector, by 26% in other wood product manufacturing and grew by 43% in pulp, paper and paperboard manufacturing over this period (ABS 1996, 2006). Key socio-economic characteristics of the Central Highlands SD were compared to the Victorian average, shown in the table on the following page. Overall, the population in this region is likely to have slightly lower adaptive capacity than the state average, having a slightly older population, earning lower median household income, a higher unemployment rate and lower proportion of adults who have completed high school compared to the state average. When examining characteristics of forestry workers, workers in the Central Highlands SD differed from the forest industry average in a number of ways. In general, forest industry workers employed in this region have high human capital, although they are older than average, and some potential stress in working conditions: • Human capital Age: Workers are older than average High school education: Workers are more likely to have completed high school than average Post-school qualifications: Workers are more likely to hold a university level qualification than average Occupation: Workers were more likely to be employed as production and transport workers than the industry average; otherwise no specific patterns were observed • Financial capital Individual income: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted, except that log sawmilling and timber dressing workers has a lower than average income Housing loan repayments: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted • Working conditions Full-time, part-time and casual workers: Central Highlands has a higher than average proportion of part-time and casual workers Working hours: Forest industry workers in this region were more likely to work over 40 hours a week compared to other regions Staff turnover: Staff turnover was slightly lower in this SD than the industry average

Table 24: Socio-economic characteristics of Central Highlands SD and Victoria, 2001-06 SD: Central Highlands State: Victoria Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 140,619 +4.0% 4,932,422 +5.8% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.9% +12.8% 0.6% +1.0% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.95 0.00% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 38 years +3 years 37 years +1 years % population under 14 20.1% -8.8% 19.3% -5.5% % population over 65 14.8% +10.5% 13.7% +8.1% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $821 N/A $1,022 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 10.3% +117.5% 17.8% +87.1% % low income households (<$500) 26.5% -31.7% 21.9% -29.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,000 N/A $1,252 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 6.3% -26.3% 5.4% -20.2% Labour force participation 62.1% +2.9% 64.4% +1.9% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 38.3% +11.4% 48.7% +8.8% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 27,137 +1.5% 786,667 +1.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 0.8% -22.4% 0.8% -10.5% Forestry & logging (ABS) 71 jobs -45.4% 1,602 jobs -17.2% Wood & paper product manufacturing 421 jobs -4.5% 17,541 -0.6% (ABS) jobs % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 54% N/A 67.9% N/A • Workforce participation Gender: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted, apart from higher than average female participation in the logging sector, and Indigenous participation: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted. One UC/L within this region has high dependence on forest industry employment: Beaufort, which has some characteristics suggesting lower adaptive capacity compared to the regional average. The socio-economic characteristics of Beaufort are described on the following page .

4.4.1. Beaufort SLA: Pyrenees – South, SSD: West Central Highlands, SD: Central Highlands Table 25: Socio-economic characteristics of Beaufort and Central Highlands SD, 2001-06 Beaufort SD: Central Highlands Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 1,075 +5.8% 140,619 +4.0% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.5% +53.0% 0.9% +12.8% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.85 -0.04% 0.95 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 51 years +3 years 38 years +3 years % population under 14 15.3% -14.9% 20.1% -8.8% % population over 65 26.2% +2.3% 14.8% +10.5% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $593 N/A $821 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 2.8% +56.2% 10.3% +117.5% % low income households (<$500) 36.9% -35.5% 26.5% -31.7% Median housing repayment (monthly) $650 N/A $1,000 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 8.1% -15.0% 6.3% -26.3% Labour force participation 46.6% +11.4% 62.1% +2.9% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 21.9% +40.3% 38.3% +11.4% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 283 -11.8% 27,137 +1.5% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 4.4% -3.2% 0.8% -22.4% Forestry & logging (ABS) 0 jobs -100.0% 71 jobs -45.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 16 jobs +128.6% 421 jobs -4.5% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 20.0% N/A 54% N/A Overall, Beaufort has characteristics of a retiree community, with the median age of the population 13 years older than the average for the Central Highlands region, and a higher than average proportion of population aged over 65 and low labour force participation. Median household income is lower than the regional average, and fewer adults have completed high school than average, while school enrolments are declining. Despite experiencing population growth over 2001 to 2006, this suggests lower adaptive capacity compared to the region as a whole, given that much population growth is likely to be of retirement age population. When socio-economic characteristics of Beaufort’s forestry workers were compared to the industry average, they were older than average, with 25% of workers aged 55 or over; were more likely to be employed as managers/administrations, or production and transport workers, and less likely to be employed as professionals or labourers than the industry average; and earned less income than average. Forest industry workers in Beaufort therefore appear to have some characteristics associated with lower adaptive capacity, particularly lower financial capital and an ageing workforce for which skills replacement over time may become an issue for the industry in the town.

4.5. Wimmera Statistical Division Forest industry workers make up only 0.3% of the employed workforce in the Statistical Division of the Wimmera, with the region ranking eleventh out of the 11 SDs in Victoria in terms of dependence on the forest industry. In total, 79 forest industry workers are employed in the region, of which 25 work in the growing, services to forestry and primary processing sectors (FIS), and a further 54 in the secondary processing sector (ABS 2006). Over 1996 to 2006, forest industry employment declined by 40% according to ABS data, with the decline resulting from a fall of 23% in jobs in the other wood product manufacturing sector over this period (ABS 1996, 2006). Key socio-economic characteristics of the Wimmera SD were compared to the Victorian average, shown in the table on the following page. Overall, the population of the Wimmera has lower adaptive capacity compared to the broader Victorian population, with the region experiencing population decline, having an older than average population, lower household income, a very low proportion of adults having completed high school, and declining school enrolments compared to the state average. Unemployment is lower than the state average. When examining characteristics of forestry workers, workers in the Wimmera SD differed from the forest industry average in a number of ways. In general, forest industry workers employed in this region have characteristics suggesting lower adaptive capacity than average for the industry, although workers have higher educational attainment than the industry average: • Human capital Age: Workers are older than average High school education: Workers are more likely to have completed high school than average Post-school qualifications: Workers are more likely to hold a certificate/diploma Occupation: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted • Financial capital Individual income: Workers earn lower income than the average forest industry worker Housing loan repayments: Workers typically had lower housing repayments in this region compared to others • Working conditions Full-time, part-time and casual workers: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted Working hours: Workers were less likely to work more than 40 hours a week in this SD compared to workers in other regions Staff turnover: Staff turnover was slightly lower than the industry average • Workforce participation Gender: More women participate in the forestry workforce in this region compared to the average, across all forest industry sectors, and Indigenous participation: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted.

No UC/Ls within this region have higher than average dependence on forest industry employment.

Table 26: Socio-economic characteristics of Wimmera SD and Victoria, 2001-06 SD: Wimmera State: Victoria Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 48,442 -3.2% 4,932,422 +5.8% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.9% +11.9% 0.6% +1.0% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.97 -0.02% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 42 years +3 years 37 years +1 years

% population under 14 19.7% -9.8% 19.3% -5.5% % population over 65 19.5% +11.3% 13.7% +8.1% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $727 N/A $1,022 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 7.7% +93.4% 17.8% +87.1% % low income households (<$500) 30.5% -27.7% 21.9% -29.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $750 N/A $1,252 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 4.8% -5.9% 5.4% -20.2% Labour force participation 61.6% 1.8% 64.4% +1.9% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 29.9% +12.3% 48.7% +8.8% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 8,062 -6.0% 786,667 +1.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 0.3% -20.6% 0.8% -10.5% Forestry & logging (ABS) 9 jobs -47.1% 1,602 jobs -17.2%

Wood & paper product manufacturing 61 jobs -12.9% 17,541 -0.6% (ABS) jobs % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 100% N/A 67.9% N/A

4.6. Mallee Statistical Division Forest industry workers make up 0.5% of the employed workforce in the Mallee Statistical Division, with this region ranking tenth out of the 11 SDs in Victoria in terms of dependent on the forest industry. A total of 167 people work in the forest industry, of which 60 are employed in growing, services to forestry and primary processing sectors (FIS) and a further 107 in the secondary processing sector (ABS 2006). Over 1996 to 2006, forest industry employment grew by 24% according to ABS data, with this growth concentrated in the processing sector where jobs grew by 25% in the logging and sawmilling sector, and by 135% in other wood product manufacturing over this period (ABS 1996, 2006). Key socio-economic characteristics of the Mallee SD were compared to the Victorian average, shown in the table on the following page. Overall, the population of this region has slightly lower adaptive capacity compared to the broader Victorian population, with the region having a slightly older than average population, lower household income, and a very low proportion of adults having completed high school. Unemployment is slightly lower than the state average. When examining characteristics of forestry workers, workers in the Mallee SD differed from the forest industry average in a number of ways. In general, forest industry workers employed in this region are likely to have lower adaptive capacity than the industry average: • Human capital Age: Workers are older than average High school education: Workers are less likely to have completed high school than average Post-school qualifications: No significant differences were noted in the proportion of workers holding a certificate/diploma level qualification or university level qualification Occupation: A higher proportion of labourers were located in Mallee SD than other regions; otherwise no specific patterns were observed • Financial capital Individual income: Workers earn lower than average income, particularly in the log sawmilling and timber dressing sector Housing loan repayments: Workers typically had lower housing repayments in this region compared to others • Working conditions Full-time, part-time and casual workers: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted Working hours: Workers were less likely to work more than 40 hours a week in this SD compared to other regions Staff turnover: Staff turnover was slightly lower in this SD than the industry average • Workforce participation Gender: More women participate in the forestry workforce in this region compared to the average, across all forest industry sectors, and Indigenous participation: More Indigenous participation in the forestry workforce occurred in this region compared to other regions.

One UC/L within this region has higher than average dependence on the forest industry: Barham-Koondrook (Koondrook Part). The town of Koondrook has characteristics suggesting lower adaptive capacity compared to the regional average. The socio-economic characteristics of Koondrook are described on the following page.

Table 27: Socio-economic characteristics of Mallee SD and Victoria, 2001-06 SD: Mallee State: Victoria Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 88,797 +1.5% 4,932,422 +5.8% people people Proportion of population identifying as 2.8% +15.1% 0.6% +1.0% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.98 -0.01% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 38 years +1 years 37 years +1 years % population under 14 21.6% -6.4% 19.3% -5.5% % population over 65 16.4% +10.0% 13.7% +8.1% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $749 N/A $1,022 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 7.5% +85.2% 17.8% +87.1% % low income households (<$500) 29.0% -28.1% 21.9% -29.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $932 N/A $1,252 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 5.1% -11.1% 5.4% -20.2% Labour force participation 62.6% +0.6% 64.4% +1.9% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 29.2% +13.0% 48.7% +8.8% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 17,213 +0.4% 786,667 +1.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 0.5% -4.1% 0.8% -10.5% Forestry & logging (ABS) 16 jobs -44.8% 1,602 jobs -17.2% Wood & paper product manufacturing 171 jobs +5.6% 17,541 -0.6% (ABS) jobs % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 0% N/A 67.9% N/A

4.6.1. Barham-Koondrook (Koondrook Part) SLA: Gannawarra, SSD: East Mallee, SD: Mallee Table 28: Socio-economic characteristics of Barham-Koondrook (Koondrook Part) and Mallee SD, 2001-06 Barham-Koondrook SD: Mallee (Koondrook Part) Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 804 +14.0% 88,797 +1.5% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.5% -52.7% 2.8% +15.1% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 1.08 -0.01% 0.98 -0.01% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 50 years +4 years 38 years +1 years % population under 14 14.8% -14.3% 21.6% -6.4% % population over 65 25.4% +12.7% 16.4% +10.0% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $598 N/A $749 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 2.0% +69.3% 7.5% +85.2% % low income households (<$500) 39.9% -27.8% 29.0% -28.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $650 N/A $932 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 4.8% -39.1% 5.1% -11.1% Labour force participation 51.2% +4.1% 62.6% +0.6% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 18.3% +35.3% 29.2% +13.0% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 77 -8.3% 17,213 +0.4% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 5.1% +13.1% 0.5% -4.1% Forestry & logging (ABS) 3 jobs 0.0% 16 jobs -44.8% Wood & paper product manufacturing (ABS) 13 jobs +62.5% 171 jobs +5.6% % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 0.0% N/A 0% N/A Overall, Koondrook has characteristics of a retiree community, with the median age of the population 12 years higher than the average for the Mallee region, and a higher than average proportion of population aged over 65 and low labour force participation. Median household income is lower than the regional average, and fewer adults have completed high school than average, while school enrolments are declining. Despite rapid population growth over 2001 to 2006, this suggests lower adaptive capacity compared to the region as a whole, given that much population growth is likely to be of retirement age population. When socio-economic characteristics of Koondrook’s forestry workers were compared to the industry average, there was a higher proportion of both young and old workers than average, with 40% of workers aged under 35, and 27% aged 55 or over; workers were less likely to have completed high school, with only 17% having completed high school; a higher than average proportion of workers were employed as labourers, and lower than average employed as professionals or tradespersons; workers had lower than average income, and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average. This suggests forest industry workers in Koondrook have lower adaptive capacity than average for the industry.

4.7. Loddon Statistical Division Forest industry workers make up 0.6% of the employed workforce in the Statistical Division of Loddon, with this region ranking ninth out of the 11 SDs in Victoria in terms of dependence on the forest industry. In total, 491 people are employed in the forest industry, of which 131 work in the growing, services to forestry and primary processing sectors (FIS), and a further 361 in the secondary processing sector (ABS 2006). Over 1996 to 2006, forest industry employment grew by 29% according to ABS data, with jobs falling by 1% in the logging and sawmilling sector, growing by 68% in other wood product manufacturing and by 54% in pulp, paper and paperboard manufacturing over this period (ABS 1996, 2006). Key socio-economic characteristics of Loddon were compared to the Victorian average, shown in the table on the following page. Overall, while experiencing relatively high population growth, the region has characteristics suggesting slightly lower adaptive capacity than the average for the state, with a slightly older population, lower household income, higher unemployment rate and a lower proportion of adults who have completed high school compared to the state as a whole. When examining characteristics of forestry workers, workers in the Loddon SD differed from the forest industry average in a number of ways. In general, forest industry workers employed in this region have similar characteristics to the industry average with two exceptions: they are younger than average, and earn lower income than average: • Human capital Age: Workers are younger than average High school education: No significant differences were noted in the proportion of workers completing high school Post-school qualifications: Workers are more likely to hold a certificate/diploma Occupation: A higher than average proportion of workers were employed as managers/administrators, primarily in the forestry and logging sector, while the region had fewer production and transport workers than average • Financial capital Individual income: Workers earn lower than average income, particularly in the log sawmilling and timber dressing sector Housing loan repayments: No significant differences between this region compared to other regions • Working conditions Full-time, part-time and casual workers: There are more full-time workers in this region compared to the industry average Working hours: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted Staff turnover: Staff turnover was slightly higher in this SD than the industry average • Workforce participation Gender: Less women participate in the forestry workforce in this region compared to the average, however in the forestry sector more women participate than average, and

Indigenous participation: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted. Two UCLs within this region have higher than average dependence on the forest industry: Gisborne and Romsey. Both have socio-economic characteristics suggesting higher adaptive capacity than the regional average, albeit with some potential stressors that could create some difficulty adapting to change. The socio-economic characteristics of each are described on the following pages.

Table 29: Socio-economic characteristics of Loddon SD and Victoria, 2001-06 SD: Loddon State: Victoria Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 165,868 +4.7% 4,932,422 +5.8% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.9% +18.6% 0.6% +1.0% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.95 0.00% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 39years +2 years 37 years +1 years % population under 14 20.7% -6.5% 19.3% -5.5% % population over 65 15.2% +9.9% 13.7% +8.1% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $823 N/A $1,022 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 10.8% +126.0% 17.8% +87.1% % low income households (<$500) 26.6% -31.9% 21.9% -29.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,000 N/A $1,252 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 6.1% -24.3% 5.4% -20.2% Labour force participation 61.9% +3.2% 64.4% +1.9% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 37.6% +12.9% 48.7% +8.8% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 29,563 +1.5% 786,667 +1.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 0.6% -11.1% 0.8% -10.5% Forestry & logging (ABS) 25 jobs -60.9% 1,602 jobs -17.2% Wood & paper product manufacturing 417 jobs +10.0% 17,541 -0.6% (ABS) jobs % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 85% N/A 67.9% N/A

4.7.1. Gisborne SLA: Macedon Ranges Bal, SSD: South Loddon, SD: Loddon Table 30: Socio-economic characteristics of Gisborne and Loddon SD, 2001-06 Gisborne SD: Loddon Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 6,396 +48.0% 165,868 +4.7% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.3% -39.6% 0.9% +18.6% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.94 0.00% 0.95 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 35 years +1 years 39years +2 years % population under 14 26.8% -2.0% 20.7% -6.5% % population over 65 10.4% +18.9% 15.2% +9.9% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $1,224 N/A $823 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 23.8% +101.8% 10.8% +126.0% % low income households (<$500) 14.5% -36.3% 26.6% -31.9% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,360 N/A $1,000 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 3.1% -25.7% 6.1% -24.3% Labour force participation 69.8% +4.4% 61.9% +3.2% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 46.5% +8.3% 37.6% +12.9% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 2,434 +1.4% 29,563 +1.5% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 0.8% +142.7% 0.6% -11.1% Forestry & logging (ABS) 4 jobs +400.0% 25 jobs -60.9% Wood & paper product manufacturing 19 jobs +216.7% 417 jobs +10.0% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) Unknown N/A 85% N/A Gisborne has characteristics of a community with high adaptive capacity, but some potential stressors. The population of Gisborne is younger than the Loddon region average, with higher than average median household income, low unemployment, high labour force participation and rapidly growing school enrolment. The rapid population growth and higher than average housing loan repayments may create stress on local households and local services that reduce adaptive capacity. When characteristics of Gisborne’s forest industry workers were compared to the forest industry average, they were older than average, with 20% of workers aged 55 or over; more likely than other forest industry workers to have completed high school, with 40% having completed high school; there was a higher than average proportion of managers/ administrators, and fewer labourers, production and transport workers, and tradespersons compared to the industry average; workers earned higher income than the industry average, and a diversity of working hours was identified, with higher than average proportions of workers who worked part-time or for more than 40 hours a week. This suggests the forestry workforce has higher adaptive capacity compared to the industry average, although with an older workforce that may suggest difficulty retaining skills over time.

4.7.2. Romsey SLA: Macedon Ranges - Romsey, SSD: South Loddon, SD: Loddon Table 31: Socio-economic characteristics of Romsey and Loddon SD, 2001-06 Romsey SD: Loddon Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 3,523 +17.3% 165,868 +4.7% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.8% +276.0% 0.9% +18.6% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 1.01 +0.04% 0.95 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 34 years +4 years 39years +2 years % population under 14 26.9% -10.6% 20.7% -6.5% % population over 65 7.8% +27.9% 15.2% +9.9% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $1,113 N/A $823 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 16.6% +122.4% 10.8% +126.0% % low income households (<$500) 15.2% -36.2% 26.6% -31.9% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,192 N/A $1,000 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 2.7% -53.6% 6.1% -24.3% Labour force participation 68.4% +1.7% 61.9% +3.2% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 38.2% +14.3% 37.6% +12.9% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 411 +15.1% 29,563 +1.5% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 1.6% +5.5% 0.6% -11.1% Forestry & logging (ABS) 0 jobs -100.0% 25 jobs -60.9% Wood & paper product manufacturing 25 jobs +56.3% 417 jobs +10.0% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 0.0% N/A 85% N/A Romsey has characteristics of a community with high adaptive capacity, but some potential stressors. The population of Romsey is younger than the Loddon region average, with higher than average median household income, low unemployment, high labour force participation and rapidly growing school enrolment. The rapid population growth and higher than average housing loan repayments may create stress on local households and local services that reduce resilience to change. When characteristics of Romsey’s forest industry workers were compared to the forest industry average, they were less likely than other forest industry workers to have completed high school; more likely than average to work as production and transport workers or labourers, and less likely to work as professionals; more likely to work over 40 hours a week than average; and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 88% participation. This suggests some potential stressors for the forestry workforce that reduce adaptive capacity compared to the industry average.

4.8. Goulburn Statistical Division Forest industry workers make up 1.0% of the employed workforce in the Statistical Division of Goulburn, with this region ranking fifth out of the 11 SDs in Victoria in terms of dependence on the forest industry. In total, 1,007 people work in the forest industry in this region, of which 650 are employed in the growing, services to forestry and primary processing sectors (FIS) and 357 in the secondary processing sector (ABS 2006). Over 1996 to 2006, forest industry employment declined by 10% according to ABS data. This change included 250% growth in the number of jobs in the forestry sector, and a decline of 13% in logging jobs. In the processing sector, jobs fell by 32% in the logging and sawmilling sector, by 1% in other wood product manufacturing and by 15% in pulp, paper and paperboard manufacturing over this period (ABS 1996, 2006). Key socio-economic characteristics of Goulburn SD were compared to the Victorian average, shown in the table on the following page. Overall the region has characteristics suggesting potentially slightly lower adaptive capacity than the average for the state, with a slightly older population, lower household income and a lower proportion of adults who have completed high school compared to the state as a whole, although housing repayments are also lower than average, indicating relatively low housing costs. When examining characteristics of forestry workers, workers in the Goulburn SD were relatively similar to the forest industry average in most respects, although workers were younger than average, and less likely to have completed high school: • Human capital Age: Workers are younger than average High school education: Workers are less likely to have completed high school than average Post-school qualifications: No significant differences were noted in the proportion of workers holding a certificate/diploma level qualification or university level qualification Occupation: The region had a higher than average proportion of production and transport workers; otherwise no specific patterns were observed • Financial capital Individual income: No significant differences between this region compared to other regions were noted Housing loan repayments: No significant differences between this region compared to other regions were noted • Working conditions Full-time, part-time and casual workers: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted, except that workers in the services to forestry sector were more likely to work under 35 hours a week than those in other regions Working hours: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted Staff turnover: Staff turnover was slightly lower/higher in this SD than the industry average

Table 32: Socio-economic characteristics of Goulburn SD and Victoria, 2001-06 SD: Goulburn State: Victoria Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 194,662 +4.1% 4,932,422 +5.8% people people Proportion of population identifying as 1.8% +17.7% 0.6% +1.0% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.99 -0.01% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 38 years +2 years 37 years +1 years % population under 14 21.3% -7.7% 19.3% -5.5% % population over 65 15.6% +14.5% 13.7% +8.1% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $833 N/A $1,022 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 9.7% +110.9% 17.8% +87.1% % low income households (<$500) 26.1% -30.0% 21.9% -29.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,040 N/A $1,252 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 5.1% -19.5% 5.4% -20.2% Labour force participation 63.8% +1.5% 64.4% +1.9% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 31.8% +10.6% 48.7% +8.8% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 32,511 +1.6% 786,667 +1.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 1.0% -21.6% 0.8% -10.5% Forestry & logging (ABS) 145 jobs -9.4% 1,602 jobs -17.2% Wood & paper product manufacturing 737 jobs -16.8% 17,541 -0.6% (ABS) jobs % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 58% N/A 67.9% N/A • Workforce participation Gender: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted, and Indigenous participation: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted. Nine UCLs in this region have higher than average dependence on the forest industry: Alexandra, Benalla, Broadford, Hazeldene, Kilmore, Mansfield, Marysville, Seymour, and Wallan. The socio-economic characteristics of each are described on the following pages. Of these UC/Ls, two have socio-economic characteristics that are similar to the regional average, Broadford and Mansfield. Kilmore and Wallan have higher than average adaptive capacity, but with some potential stressors reducing ability of these communities to adapt to change, while Benalla and Hazeldene have characteristics suggesting slightly lower adaptive capacity than the regional average. Alexandra and Seymour have characteristics suggesting significantly lower adaptive capacity compared to the regional average. Marysville’s characteristics, meanwhile, have changed significantly since the 2006 data presented in this report, due to impacts of the February 2009 bushfires on this town.

4.8.1. Alexandra SLA: Murrindindi - East, SSD: South West Goulburn, SD: Goulburn Table 33: Socio-economic characteristics of Alexandra and Goulburn SD, 2001-06 Alexandra SD: Goulburn Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 2,142 -2.5% 194,662 +4.1% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.5% +115.1% 1.8% +17.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.94 -0.02% 0.99 -0.01% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 44 years +3 years 38 years +2 years % population under 14 17.8% -20.4% 21.3% -7.7% % population over 65 22.8% +141% 15.6% +14.5% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $667 N/A $833 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 7.8% +171.3% 9.7% +110.9% % low income households (<$500) 31.7% -27.9% 26.1% -30.0% Median housing repayment (monthly) $867 N/A $1,040 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 5.1% -19.1% 5.1% -19.5% Labour force participation 59.1% -8.9% 63.8% +1.5% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 32.5% -12.9% 31.8% +10.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 744 -11.1% 32,511 +1.6% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 6.5% -2.1% 1.0% -21.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 19 jobs +90.0% 145 jobs -9.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 41 jobs -4.7% 737 jobs -16.8% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 24.4% N/A 58% N/A Alexandra has characteristics that indicate a lower adaptive capacity compared to the Goulburn region average, experiencing population decline over 2001 to 2006, having an older population and more rapid than average ageing, and lower household income, more low income households and lower labour force participation than the Goulburn average. School enrolments are declining, indicating some decline in local services. When socio-economic characteristics of Alexandra’s forest industry workers were compared to the industry average, they were older than average, with 29% of workers aged 55 or over; less likely to have completed high school, with only 17% having completed high school; there was a higher than average proportion of professionals and production and transport workers, and fewer managers/administrators and tradespersons than average; they had lower than average housing loan repayments; were more likely to work over 40 hours a week than average; and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 88% participation. This suggests that forest industry workers in Alexandra have a mix of characteristics relating to adaptive capacity.

4.8.2. Benalla SLA: Benalla – Benalla, SSD: South Goulburn, SD: Goulburn Table 34: Socio-economic characteristics of Benalla and Goulburn SD, 2001-06 Benalla SD: Goulburn Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 9,128 +3.9% 194,662 +4.1% people people Proportion of population identifying as 1.1% -14.0% 1.8% +17.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.90 0.00% 0.99 -0.01% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 43 years +3 years 38 years +2 years % population under 14 19.8% -7.9% 21.3% -7.7% % population over 65 22.3% +14.2% 15.6% +14.5% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $706 N/A $833 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 6.6% +158.7% 9.7% +110.9% % low income households (<$500) 30.3% -33.7% 26.1% -30.0% Median housing repayment (monthly) $875 N/A $1,040 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 6.7% -22.6% 5.1% -19.5% Labour force participation 56.6% +3.8% 63.8% +1.5% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 31.5% +13.4% 31.8% +10.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 2,295 -3.9% 32,511 +1.6% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 3.8% -27.2% 1.0% -21.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 10 jobs -23.1% 145 jobs -9.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 132 jobs -17.5% 737 jobs -16.8% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 84.7% N/A 58% N/A

Benalla has socio-economic characteristics that suggest somewhat lower adaptive capacity compared to the Goulburn regional average. Although experiencing similar population growth over 2001 to 2006 to the regional average, the population is older, with lower median household income, higher unemployment and lower labour force participation than the average, and school enrolments are declining. When socio-economic characteristics of forest industry workers in Benalla were compared to the industry average, they were younger than average, with 43% of workers aged under 35; were more likely to be employed as production and transport workers or labourers than average, and less likely to work as professionals or tradespersons; had lower than average housing loan repayments, and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 85% participation.

4.8.3. Broadford SLA: Mitchell – South, SSD: South West Goulburn, SD: Goulburn Table 35: Socio-economic characteristics of Broadford and Goulburn SD, 2001-06 Broadford SD: Goulburn

Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 3,057 +12.6% 194,662 +4.1% people people Proportion of population identifying as 1.5% +86.2% 1.8% +17.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.99 +0.01% 0.99 -0.01% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 36 years +3 years 38 years +2 years % population under 14 23.6% -14.4% 21.3% -7.7% % population over 65 12.5% +8.2% 15.6% +14.5% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $803 N/A $833 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 9.7% +494.7% 9.7% +110.9% % low income households (<$500) 25.3% -33.7% 26.1% -30.0% Median housing repayment (monthly) $953 N/A $1,040 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 5.8% -9.6% 5.1% -19.5% Labour force participation 62.0% +7.4% 63.8% +1.5% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 28.6% +15.9% 31.8% +10.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 1,112 +9.4% 32,511 +1.6% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 2.5% -57.5% 1.0% -21.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 0 jobs -100.0% 145 jobs -9.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 32 jobs -34.7% 737 jobs -16.8% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) Unknown N/A 58% N/A

Broadford has similar socio-economic characteristics to the Goulburn region with only a small number of exceptions: the population is growing faster than average, as are school enrolments, housing repayments are low than average and unemployment slightly higher than average. This suggests a mix of characteristics with regard to adaptive capacity. When socio-economic characteristics of forest industry workers in Broadford were compared to the industry average, they were less likely than other forest industry workers to have completed high school, with only 15% having completed high school; less likely to be employed as professionals and more likely to work as labourers than average; had higher than average housing loan repayments; and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 91% participation. This suggests that forest industry workers in Broadford have lower adaptive capacity compared to the industry average, with lower educational attainment and low financial capital.

4.8.4. Hazeldene SLA: Murrindindi - West, SSD: South West Goulburn, SD: Goulburn Table 36: Socio-economic characteristics of Hazeldene and Goulburn SD, 2001-06 Hazeldene SD: Goulburn Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 536 -6.0% 194,662 +4.1% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.7% 70.0% 1.8% +17.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 1.15 -0.08% 0.99 -0.01% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 37 years +4 years 38 years +2 years % population under 14 20.7% -22.5% 21.3% -7.7% % population over 65 8.0% +11.1% 15.6% +14.5% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $725 N/A $833 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 4.0% +404.0% 9.7% +110.9% % low income households (<$500) 33.5% -21.6% 26.1% -30.0% Median housing repayment (monthly) $758 N/A $1,040 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 5.4% -38.0% 5.1% -19.5% Labour force participation 61.3% -1.0% 63.8% +1.5% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 28.9% +8.8% 31.8% +10.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 35 people -39.2% 32,511 +1.6% people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 3.8% +39.0% 1.0% -21.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 0 jobs 0.0% 145 jobs -9.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 8 jobs +33.3% 737 jobs -16.8% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) Unknown N/A 58% N/A

The population living in Hazeldene has characteristics indicating lower adaptive capacity compared to the Goulburn region average. In particular, population declined rapidly over 2001 to 2006, the population is ageing more rapidly than average although median age is similar to the average for the region, household income is slightly lower, and the proportion of low income households high than the regional average. When socio-economic characteristics of forest industry workers in Hazeldene were compared to the forest industry average, no key differences were identified except that workers in Hazeldene were more likely to have a certificate/diploma qualification than average for the industry.

4.8.5. Kilmore SLA: Mitchell – South, SSD: South West Goulburn, SD: Goulburn Table 37: Socio-economic characteristics of Kilmore and Goulburn SD, 2001-06 Kilmore SD: Goulburn Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 4,720 +29.5% 194,662 +4.1% people people Proportion of population identifying as 1.0% +117.3% 1.8% +17.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 1.02 -0.03% 0.99 -0.01% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 33 years +1 years 38 years +2 years % population under 14 22.9% -0.1% 21.3% -7.7% % population over 65 11.6% +12.9% 15.6% +14.5% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $1,034 N/A $833 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 13.6% +86.2% 9.7% +110.9% % low income households (<$500) 20.0% -33.8% 26.1% -30.0% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,300 N/A $1,040 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 4.4% -6.5% 5.1% -19.5% Labour force participation 59.1% +1.9% 63.8% +1.5% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 33.9% +5.1% 31.8% +10.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 2,251 +22.6% 32,511 +1.6% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 1.2% +3.8% 1.0% -21.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 0 jobs -100.0% 145 jobs -9.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 23 jobs +76.9% 737 jobs -16.8% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) Unknown N/A 58% N/A Kilmore has characteristics of a community with high adaptive capacity, but some potential stressors. While the population of Kilmore is younger than the Goulburn region average, with higher than average median household income, low unemployment, and rapidly growing school enrolment, the very rapid population growth and higher than average housing loan repayments may create stress on local households and local services that reduce resilience to change. When characteristics of Kilmore’s forest industry workers were compared to the forest industry average, more were employed as production and transport workers than is average for the industry; they typically had higher than average housing loan repayments, likely reflecting high housing costs in Kilmore; and there was a wide distribution of working hours, with a higher than average proportions of workers who worked part-time (less than 35 hours a week) and who worked more than 40 hours a week. This suggests that workers in this region have similar adaptive capacity to the industry average but with potentially lower financial capital given the high cost of housing relative to income.

4.8.6. Mansfield SLA: Mansfield, SSD: South Goulburn, SD: Goulburn Table 38: Socio-economic characteristics of Mansfield and Goulburn SD, 2001-06 Mansfield SD: Goulburn Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 2846 +13.9% 194,662 +4.1% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.7% -18.5% 1.8% +17.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.92 -0.04% 0.99 -0.01% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 41 years +1 year 38 years +2 years % population under 14 19.6% -11.2% 21.3% -7.7% % population over 65 19.6% +18.8% 15.6% +14.5% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $719 N/A $833 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 7.4% +431.0% 9.7% +110.9% % low income households (<$500) 28.6% -26.3% 26.1% -30.0% Median housing repayment (monthly) $999 N/A $1,040 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 4.5% -30.8% 5.1% -19.5% Labour force participation 62.9% +2.0% 63.8% +1.5% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 36.4% +9.4% 31.8% +10.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 984 +5.9% 32,511 +1.6% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 2.1% +24.6% 1.0% -21.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 15 jobs +36.4% 145 jobs -9.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 13 jobs +44.4% 737 jobs -16.8% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 2.0% N/A 58% N/A Mansfield experienced greater population growth than the Goulburn region average over 2001 to 2006, and has similar labour force participation and median housing repayments to the regional average. The population is older than the regional average, and earns somewhat lower income, with a slightly higher proportion of lower income households. A higher than average proportion of adults have completed high school, and school enrolments are growing faster than the average. This suggests Mansfield is relatively similar to the regional average but with some characteristics suggesting potentially lower adaptive capacity, particularly in terms of age and income earned. When characteristics of Mansfield’s forest industry workers were compared to the industry average, they were older than average, with 23% of workers aged 55 or over; were less likely than other forest industry workers to have completed high school, with only 15% having completed high school; there was higher than average participation of labourers and professionals in the forestry workforce; and there was greater female participation in the forest industry workforce than average (21%). This suggests some potential vulnerabilities to change, related to skills and age of the workforce, that may mean Mansfield’s forest industry workers have lower adaptive capacity compared to the industry average.

4.8.7. Marysville (L) SLA: Murrindindi – East, SSD: South West Goulburn, SD: Goulburn Table 39: Socio-economic characteristics of Marysville and Goulburn SD, 2001-06 Marysville (L) SD: Goulburn Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 516 people +3.0% 194,662 +4.1% people Proportion of population identifying as 1.2% -12.1% 1.8% +17.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 1.05 -0.05% 0.99 -0.01% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 46 years +1 years 38 years +2 years % population under 14 15.9% -26.0% 21.3% -7.7% % population over 65 19.2% +26.2% 15.6% +14.5% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $673 N/A $833 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 8.3% +322.7% 9.7% +110.9% % low income households (<$500) 26.5% -30.0% 26.1% -30.0% Median housing repayment (monthly) $978 N/A $1,040 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 5.9% -68.0% 5.1% -19.5% Labour force participation 64.8% +0.2% 63.8% +1.5% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 40.4% +10.0% 31.8% +10.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 59 -26.3% 32,511 +1.6% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 3.6% -46.8% 1.0% -21.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 0 jobs -100.0% 145 jobs -9.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing (ABS) 9 jobs -35.7% 737 jobs -16.8% % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 0.0% N/A 58% N/A Overall, Marysville has characteristics of a community experiencing some immigration of ‘treechangers’, having an older population than the Goulburn region average, rapid growth in the population aged over 65 and population growth over 2001 to 2006. A high proportion of adults have completed high school compared to the regional average. In 2006 it was otherwise relatively similar to the Goulburn average in all respects except median household income, which was lower than average, and school enrolments, which declined rapidly over 2001 to 2006 compared to the regional average. Marysville was highly impacted by the February 2009 bushfires, and its socioeconomic characteristics will now be significantly different to those indicated in the 2006 Census. When socio-economic characteristics of forest industry workers in Marysville were compared to the forest industry average, no key differences were identified, largely because numbers of workers recorded by the ABS are too small for identification of meaningful differences to the average for the workforce as a whole. Three forest industry businesses located in or near Marysville indicated they could not participate in the FIS due to impacts from the fires on their business, suggesting significant impacts of the fires on many forest industry workers in and around Marysville.

4.8.8. Seymour SLA: Mitchell - North, SSD: South West Goulburn, SD: Goulburn Table 40: Socio-economic characteristics of Seymour and Goulburn SD, 2001-06 Seymour SD: Goulburn Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 6,062 -8.1% 194,662 +4.1% people people Proportion of population identifying as 1.9% +15.3% 1.8% +17.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.95 +0.03% 0.99 -0.01% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 38 years +4 years 38 years +2 years % population under 14 20.3% -13.0% 21.3% -7.7% % population over 65 16.6% +23.0% 15.6% +14.5% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $699 N/A $833 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 6.9% +266.5% 9.7% +110.9% % low income households (<$500) 29.9% -29.7% 26.1% -30.0% Median housing repayment (monthly) $867 N/A $1,040 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 7.0% -29.6% 5.1% -19.5% Labour force participation 58.9% +2.8% 63.8% +1.5% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 28.2% +13.0% 31.8% +10.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 1,602 -10.9% 32,511 +1.6% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 1.1% -29.0% 1.0% -21.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 8 jobs +100.0% 145 jobs -9.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 19 jobs -44.1% 737 jobs -16.8% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 100.0% N/A 58% N/A Seymour has characteristics that indicate a lower adaptive capacity compared to the Goulburn region average, experiencing rapid population decline over 2001 to 2006, having more rapid than average ageing, and lower household income, more low income households, higher unemployment and lower labour force participation than the Goulburn average. School enrolments are declining, indicating some decline in local services. When socio-economic characteristics of Seymour’s forest industry workers were compared to the industry average, they were much less likely than other forest industry workers to have completed high school, with none having completed high school, but were more likely than average to have a certificate/diploma qualification; were more likely to be employed as labourers, and less likely to be employed in higher skilled jobs; earned lower than average income; and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 100% participation. This suggests that Seymour’s forest industry workers have lower adaptive capacity compared to the forest industry average.

4.8.9. Wallan SLA: Mitchell - South, SSD: South West Goulburn, SD: Goulburn Table 41: Socio-economic characteristics of Wallan and Goulburn SD, 2001-06 Wallan SD: Goulburn Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 5,409 +34.6% 194,662 +4.1% people people Proportion of population identifying as 1.0% +111.2% 1.8% +17.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 1.00 +0.03% 0.99 -0.01% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 30 years +1 years 38 years +2 years % population under 14 1.6% -94.8% 21.3% -7.7% % population over 65 0.4% -88.9% 15.6% +14.5% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $1,109 N/A $833 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 14.2% +136.9% 9.7% +110.9% % low income households (<$500) 14.2% -19.3% 26.1% -30.0% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,300 N/A $1,040 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 3.9% -22.8% 5.1% -19.5% Labour force participation 72.1% +2.0% 63.8% +1.5% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 32.2% +14.7% 31.8% +10.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 673 +28.2% 32,511 +1.6% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 1.5% -18.4% 1.0% -21.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 0 jobs 0.0% 145 jobs -9.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 36 jobs +9.1% 737 jobs -16.8% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) Unknown N/A 58% N/A Wallan has characteristics of a community with high adaptive capacity, but some potential stressors. While the population of Wallan is younger than the Goulburn region average, with higher than average median household income, low unemployment, high labour force participation and rapidly growing school enrolment, the very rapid population growth and higher than average housing loan repayments may create stress on local households and local services that reduce resilience to change. When characteristics of Wallan’s forest industry workers were compared to the forest industry average, they were less likely than other forest industry workers to have completed high school, with only 11% having completed high school; were more likely than other forest industry workers to hold a certificate/diploma qualification, with 42% having completed this type of qualification; were more likely to be employed as tradespersons or production and transport workers, and less likely to work as managers/administrators, professionals, or labourers than average for the industry; were more likely to work over 40 hours a week; and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average (86%). This suggests some potential stressors for the forest industry workforce, particularly long working hours and low high school completed.

4.9. Ovens-Murray Statistical Division Forest industry workers make up 2.1% of the employed workforce in the Statistical Division of Ovens-Murray, with this region ranking third out of the 11 SDs in Victoria in terms of dependence on the forest industry. In total, 1,032 people are employed in the forest industry, of which 743 work in the growing, services to forestry and primary processing sectors (FIS) and a further 292 in the secondary processing sector (ABS 2006). Over 1996 to 2006, forest industry employment grew by 11% according to ABS data. This included 106% growth in the number of jobs in the forestry sector and a decline of 41% in logging jobs. In the processing sector, jobs grew by 106% in the logging and sawmilling sector, by 80% in pulp, paper and paperboard manufacturing and fell by 30% in other wood product manufacturing over this period (ABS 1996, 2006). Key socio-economic characteristics of the Ovens-Murray SD were compared to the Victorian average, shown in the table on the following page. Overall the region has characteristics suggesting potentially slightly lower adaptive capacity than the average for the state, with a slightly older population, lower household income and a lower proportion of adults who have completed high school compared to the state as a whole, although housing repayments are also lower than average, indicating relatively low housing costs. When examining characteristics of forestry workers, workers in the Ovens-Murray SD differed from the forest industry average in some ways that suggest higher adaptive capacity than average, largely related to having high financial capital relative to the industry average. However, workers are work longer hours than average, suggesting some potential stress: • Human capital Age: Workers are older than average High school education: No significant differences were noted in the proportion of workers that have completed high school Post-school qualifications: No significant differences were noted in the proportion of workers holding a certificate/diploma level qualification or university level qualification Occupation: A high proportion of workers were employed in production and transport; otherwise no specific patterns were observed • Financial capital Individual income: Workers earn higher than average income in this region compared to other regions Housing loan repayments: No significant differences between this region compared to other regions • Working conditions Full-time, part-time and casual workers: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted Working hours: Workers were more likely to work over 40 hours a week in this region compared to other regions Staff turnover: Staff turnover was slightly higher in this SD than the industry average

Table 42: Socio-economic characteristics of Ovens-Murray SD and Victoria, 2001-06 SD: Ovens-Murray State: Victoria Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2001- 2006 Change 06 2001-06 Total population 97,460 +3.3% 4,932,422 +5.8% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.9% +43.5% 0.6% +1.0% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.97 -0.02% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 38 years +2 years 37 years +1 years % population under 14 20.7% -8.9% 19.3% -5.5% % population over 65 14.8% +18.0% 13.7% +8.1% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2001- 2006 Change 06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $894 N/A $1,022 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 10.3% +135.3% 17.8% +87.1% % low income households (<$500) 24.6% -32.3% 21.9% -29.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,079 N/A $1,252 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2001- 2006 Change 06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 4.4% -28.7% 5.4% -20.2% Labour force participation 67.4% +3.2% 64.4% +1.9% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2001- 2006 Change 06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 35.5% +3.1% 48.7% +8.8% Local services 2006 Change 2001- 2006 Change 06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 14,388 -3.0% 786,667 +1.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2001- 2006 Change 06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 2.1% -1.9% 0.8% -10.5% Forestry & logging (ABS) 140 jobs +2.9% 1,602 jobs -17.2% Wood & paper product manufacturing 793 jobs -0.3% 17,541 -0.6% (ABS) jobs % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 85% N/A 67.9% N/A • Workforce participation Gender: Less women participate in the forestry workforce in this region compared to the average, across all forest industry sectors, and Indigenous participation: Indigenous participation is higher in the three wood and paper manufacturing sectors than the industry average. Five UC/Ls within this region have high dependence on forest industry employment: Albury- Wodonga (Wodonga Part), Corryong, Myrtleford, Oxley, and Wangaratta. The socio- economic characteristics of each are described on the following pages. Of these UC/Ls, the population of Wodonga has characteristics typically associated with a community having high adaptive capacity and resilience to change compared to the regional average, while Oxley and Wangaratta are similar to the regional average. Myrtleford and Corryong have characteristics indicating low adaptive capacity and resilience to change compared to the Ovens-Murray average.

4.9.1. Albury-Wodonga (Wodonga Part) SLA: Wodonga (RC), SSD: Wodonga, SD: Ovens-Murray Table 43: Socio-economic characteristics of Albury-Wodonga (Wodonga Part) and Ovens- Murray, 2001-06 Albury-Wodonga SD: Ovens-Murray (Wodonga Part) Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 29,713 +6.5% 97,460 +3.3% people people Proportion of population identifying as 1.4% +47.3% 0.9% +43.5% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.95 0.00% 0.97 -0.02% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 34 years +2 years 38 ears +2 years % population under 14 22.0% -8.7% 20.7% -8.9% % population over 65 11.4% +19.2% 14.8% +18.0% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $956 N/A $894 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 11.5% +154.9% 10.3% +135.3% % low income households (<$500) 22.1% -33.9% 24.6% -32.3% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,127 N/A $1,079 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 5.7% -32.7% 4.4% -28.7% Labour force participation 67.1% +3.2% 67.4% +3.2% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 36.3% +10.2% 35.5% +3.1% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 5,136 -0.6% 14,388 -3.0% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 1.6% +45.4% 2.1% -1.9% Forestry & logging (ABS) 12 jobs -29.4% 140 jobs +2.9% Wood & paper product manufacturing (ABS) 215 jobs +82.2% 793 jobs -0.3% % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 7.4% N/A 85% N/A Overall, Wodonga has characteristics of a resilient community, having high population growth, relatively high weekly household income, and a relatively young population compared to the Ovens-Murray region as a whole. A potential point of vulnerability is the slightly higher than average median home loan repayments, which require maintenance of high weekly household incomes to service, and slightly higher than average unemployment rate. When the socio-economic characteristics of forest industry workers in Wodonga were compared to the forest industry average, they were younger than average, with 52% of workers aged under 35; were more likely to be employed as tradespersons and production and transport workers than average, and less likely to be employed as labourers; were more likely to work more than 40 hours a week; and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 86% participation. This suggests workers may be somewhat vulnerable to stress related to long working hours, but otherwise do not have noticeably different adaptive capacity to the industry average.

4.9.2. Corryong SLA: Towong – Pt B, SSD: East Ovens-Murray, SD: Ovens-Murray Table 44: Socio-economic characteristics of Corryong and Ovens-Murray, 2001-06 Corryong SD: Ovens-Murray Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 1,229 +1.6% 97,460 +3.3% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.2% -69.1% 0.9% +43.5% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.87 -0.03% 0.97 -0.02% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 45 years +2 years 38 ears +2 years % population under 14 19.0% -4.9% 20.7% -8.9% % population over 65 28.8% +25.2% 14.8% +18.0% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $580 N/A $894 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 2.9% +100.5% 10.3% +135.3% % low income households (<$500) 42.0% -15.2% 24.6% -32.3% Median housing repayment (monthly) $650 N/A $1,079 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 5.3% -19.2% 4.4% -28.7% Labour force participation 50.3% -5.9% 67.4% +3.2% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 30.5% +17.5% 35.5% +3.1% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 79 +97.0% 14,388 -3.0% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 4.2% -25.5% 2.1% -1.9% Forestry & logging (ABS) 10 jobs +100.0% 140 jobs +2.9% Wood & paper product manufacturing 9 jobs -55.0% 793 jobs -0.3% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 0.0% N/A 85% N/A Corryong has some key characteristics of a community with low adaptive capacity. Despite experiencing some population growth over 2001 to 2006, the median age of the population is seven years older than the Ovens-Murray average, median household income is much lower than average, the proportion of low income earning households much higher, and the town has somewhat higher unemployment and much lower labour force participation than average. In addition, a smaller proportion of adults have completed high school than the regional average. Overall, Corryong has characteristics of a town with potentially limited resilience to change. When forest industry workers in Corryong were compared to the industry average, they were older than average, with 43% of workers aged 55 or over; were less likely than other forest industry workers to have completed high school; earned lower incomes than the industry average; were more likely to work part-time than the industry average; and there was greater female participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 32% participation. This suggests that forestry workers in Corryong tend to work in less secure jobs than usual and that they are vulnerable to change, particularly given the relatively low incomes earned.

4.9.3. Myrtleford SLA: Alpine - West, SSD: East Ovens-Murray, SD: Ovens-Murray Table 45: Socio-economic characteristics of Myrtleford and Ovens-Murray, 2001-06 Myrtleford SD: Ovens-Murray Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 2,726 +5.3% 97,460 +3.3% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.7% -2.9% 0.9% +43.5% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.93 -0.01% 0.97 -0.02% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 44 years +3 years 38 ears +2 years % population under 14 18.7% -9.5% 20.7% -8.9% % population over 65 23.9% +18.9% 14.8% +18.0% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $642 N/A $894 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 4.9% +81.9% 10.3% +135.3% % low income households (<$500) 34.0% -27.8% 24.6% -32.3% Median housing repayment (monthly) $867 N/A $1,079 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 6.4% -24.5% 4.4% -28.7% Labour force participation 53.4% -4.9% 67.4% +3.2% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 27.4% +21.8% 35.5% +3.1% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 474 -7.1% 14,388 -3.0% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 15.9% -14.1% 2.1% -1.9% Forestry & logging (ABS) 28 jobs +12.0% 140 jobs +2.9% Wood & paper product manufacturing (ABS) 139 jobs -13.7% 793 jobs -0.3% % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 100.0% N/A 85% N/A Myrtleford has some key characteristics of a community with low adaptive capacity. Despite experiencing population growth over 2001 to 2006, the median age of the population is older than the Ovens-Murray average, median household income is lower than average, the proportion of low income earning households higher, and the town has higher unemployment and lower labour force participation than average. In addition, a smaller proportion of adults have completed high school than the regional average. Overall, Myrtleford has characteristics of a town with potentially limited resilience to change. When forest industry workers in Myrtleford were compared to the industry average, they were less likely than other forest industry workers to have completed high school; were more likely to be employed as labourers or production and transport workers than average, and less likely to be employed as managers/administrators or tradespersons; had lower than average housing loan repayments were lower than average; and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 91% participation. This suggests workers have high vulnerability to change in terms of skills and qualifications, but reasonably high financial capital as they earn similar incomes to the industry average but have lower than average housing loan repayments.

4.9.4. Oxley (L) SLA: Wangaratta – South, SSD: West Ovens-Murray, SD: Ovens-Murray Table 46: Socio-economic characteristics of Oxley and Ovens-Murray, 2001-06 Oxley (L) SD: Ovens-Murray Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 290 -2.5% 97,460 +3.3% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% +43.5% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 1.07 0.01% 0.97 -0.02% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 38 years +2 years 38 ears +2 years % population under 14 21.7% -9.9% 20.7% -8.9% % population over 65 9.0% +40.5% 14.8% +18.0% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $875 N/A $894 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 7.0% +13.0% 10.3% +135.3% % low income households (<$500) 23.3% -5.8% 24.6% -32.3% Median housing repayment (monthly) $867 N/A $1,079 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 2.0% -67.8% 4.4% -28.7% Labour force participation 72.7% +1.4% 67.4% +3.2% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 39.6% +22.2% 35.5% +3.1% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 76 +13.4% 14,388 -3.0% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 3.4% -7.4% 2.1% -1.9% Forestry & logging (ABS) 0 jobs 0.0% 140 jobs +2.9% Wood & paper product manufacturing 5 jobs 0.0% 793 jobs -0.3% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) Unknown N/A 85% N/A

Oxley has similar characteristics to the Ovens-Murray regional average in most respects, except that it has a declining population, slightly fewer high income earning households, lower median housing repayments, and a lower unemployment rate and higher labour force participation than average. School enrolments are growing in the town. This suggests that labour is scarce in Oxley, with likely difficulty recruiting new workers into any expanding industry, but otherwise relatively similar adaptive capacity to the Ovens-Murray regional average. When socio-economic characteristics of forest industry workers in Oxley were compared to the forest industry average, no key differences were identified, largely because numbers of workers are too small for identification of meaningful differences to the average for the workforce as a whole.

4.9.5. Wangaratta SLA: Wangaratta – North, SSD: West Ovens-Murray, SD: Ovens-Murray Table 47: Socio-economic characteristics of Wangaratta and Ovens-Murray, 2001-06 Wangaratta SD: Ovens-Murray Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 16,846 +2.4% 97,460 +3.3% people people Proportion of population identifying as 1.1% +56.4% 0.9% +43.5% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.89 0.00% 0.97 -0.02% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 39 years +2 years 38 ears +2 years % population under 14 20.1% -2.2% 20.7% -8.9% % population over 65 19.1% +10.9% 14.8% +18.0% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $758 N/A $894 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 7.6% +174.7% 10.3% +135.3% % low income households (<$500) 27.8% -32.2% 24.6% -32.3% Median housing repayment (monthly) $953 N/A $1,079 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 5.1% -24.0% 4.4% -28.7% Labour force participation 61.1% +4.3% 67.4% +3.2% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 33.6% +15.8% 35.5% +3.1% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 3,829 -3.4% 14,388 -3.0% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 1.8% -5.2% 2.1% -1.9% Forestry & logging (ABS) 15 jobs +50.0% 140 jobs +2.9% Wood & paper product manufacturing 118 jobs -2.5% 793 jobs -0.3% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 73.0% N/A 85% N/A Overall, Wangaratta has relatively similar characteristics to the Ovens-Murray region as a whole, with the following exceptions: the population grew slightly more slowly than average over 2001-06, while the proportion of the population averaged over 65 is higher than average, weekly income lower than average (as are housing loan repayments), and labour force participation is lower than average. This suggests that the city of Wangaratta may be slightly more vulnerable to change than average, given some indications of a high retiree population. When forest industry workers based in Wangaratta were compared to the industry average, they were younger than average, with 48% of workers aged under 35; a higher than average proportion were employed as tradespersons; a higher than average proportion worked more than 40 hours a week; and there was greater male participation than average, with 92% participation. Other than potentially having higher than average stress related to long work hours for some workers, this does not suggest particular vulnerabilities to change in the forestry workforce in Wangaratta.

4.10. East Gippsland Statistical Division Forest industry workers make up 2.3% of the employed workforce in the Statistical Division of East Gippsland, with this region ranking second out of the 11 SDs in Victoria in terms of dependence on the forest industry. In total, 1,289 people work in the forest industry in this region, of which 1,177 are employed in the growing, services to forestry and primary processing sectors (FIS) and a further 112 in the secondary processing sector (ABS 2006). Over 1996 to 2006, forest industry employment declined by 23% according to ABS data. This change included 24% growth in the number of jobs in the forestry sector associated with expansion of hardwood plantations in the region, and a decline of 37% in logging jobs. In the processing sector, jobs fell by 47% in the logging and sawmilling sector, but grew by 48% in other wood product manufacturing and by 47% in pulp, paper and paperboard manufacturing over this period (ABS 1996, 2006). Key socio-economic characteristics of the East Gippsland region were compared to the Victorian average, shown in the table on the following page. Overall, the population of East Gippsland has lower adaptive capacity compared to the broader Victorian population, with a much higher median age, lower household income, higher unemployment, a lower proportion of adults having completed high school, and declining school enrolments compared to the state average. When examining characteristics of forestry workers, workers in the East Gippsland SD differed from the forest industry average in a number of ways that suggests lower adaptive capacity to the industry average: • Human capital Age: Workers are older than average High school education: Workers are less likely to have completed high school than average Post-school qualifications: No significant differences were noted in the proportion of workers holding a certificate/diploma level qualification or university level qualification Occupation: A higher than average proportion of workers are employed in production and transport work and as labourers • Financial capital Individual income: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted with one exception: log sawmilling and timber dressing workers earn lower than average income Housing loan repayments: Workers typically had lower housing repayments in this region compared to others • Working conditions Full-time, part-time and casual workers: There are more full-time workers in this region compared to the industry average Working hours: Workers were more likely to work over 40 hours a week compared to other regions Staff turnover: Staff turnover was higher in this SD than the industry average

Table 48: Socio-economic characteristics of East Gippsland SD and Victoria, 2001-06 SD: East Gippsland State: Victoria Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 78,402 +1.4% 4,932,422 +5.8% people people Proportion of population identifying as 2.0% +14.9% 0.6% +1.0% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.99 0.00% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 42 years +3 years 37 years +1 years % population under 14 19.2% -11.5% 19.3% -5.5% % population over 65 18.3% +15.2% 13.7% +8.1% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $711 N/A $1,022 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 8.2% +118.4% 17.8% +87.1% % low income households (<$500) 31.1% -30.1% 21.9% -29.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $867 N/A $1,252 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 6.1% -26.5% 5.4% -20.2% Labour force participation 57.9% +2.1% 64.4% +1.9% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 30.9% +7.2% 48.7% +8.8% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 14,046 -5.7% 786,667 +1.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 2.3% -17.7% 0.8% -10.5% Forestry & logging (ABS) 290 jobs -16.9% 1,602 jobs -17.2% Wood & paper product manufacturing 468 jobs -4.7% 17,541 -0.6% (ABS) jobs % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 18% N/A 67.9% N/A • Workforce participation Gender: Less women participate in the forestry workforce in this region compared to the average, across all forest industry sectors, and Indigenous participation: Indigenous participation in the forestry workforce was higher in this region compared to the industry average. Nine UC/Ls within this region have high dependence on forest industry employment: Bairnsdale, Bruthen, Cann River, Heyfield, Lakes Entrance, Marlo, Orbost, Rosedale, and Yarram. The socio-economic characteristics of each are described on the following pages. Of these UC/Ls, four – Cann River, Marlo, Orbost and Yarram - have characteristics suggesting higher vulnerability to change than the East Gippsland average, while two – Heyfield and Rosedale appear slightly more vulnerable to change than average. Bairnsdale, Bruthen and Lakes Entrance have more mixed characteristics, suggesting neither higher nor lower adaptive capacity and resilience to change than average for the region as a whole.

4.10.1. Bairnsdale SLA: East Gippsland – Bairnsdale, SSD: East Gippsland Shire, SD: East Gippsland Table 49: Socio-economic characteristics of Bairnsdale and East Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Bairnsdale SD: East Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 11,284 +3.4% 78,402 +1.4% people people Proportion of population identifying as 4.4% +26.0% 2.0% +14.9% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.91 -0.01% 0.99 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 40 years +2years 42 years +3 years % population under 14 20.0% -7.0% 19.2% -11.5% % population over 65 19.9% +7.2% 18.3% +15.2% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $679 N/A $711 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 6.5% +137.4% 8.2% +118.4% % low income households (<$500) 32.6% -31.0% 31.1% -30.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $910 N/A $867 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 6.5% -29.1% 6.1% -26.5% Labour force participation 57.4% +4.7% 57.9% +2.1% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 32.1% +16.8% 30.9% +7.2% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 3,454 -1.9% 14,046 -5.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 1.7% -30.1% 2.3% -17.7% Forestry & logging (ABS) 17 jobs -19.0% 290 jobs -16.9% Wood & paper product manufacturing 58 jobs -21.6% 468 jobs -4.7% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 5.4% N/A 18% N/A Bairnsdale has relatively similar characteristics to East Gippsland as a whole with the following exceptions: the population is growing more rapidly than average, is slightly younger than average, and there are a slightly higher proportion of adults who have completed high school than average. This suggests Bairnsdale is similar to East Gippsland in terms of adaptive capacity and resilience to change. When socio-economic characteristics of forest industry workers in Bairnsdale were compared to the forest industry average, they were less likely than other forest industry workers to have completed high school; were more likely to be employed as tradespersons or labourers than average, and less likely to be employed as managers/ administrators; earned lower income than average, but also had lower housing loan repayments than average; earned less income than average; and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 89% participation. This suggests lower adaptive capacity than the industry average.

4.10.2. Bruthen (L) SLA: East Gippsland Bal, SSD: East Gippsland Shire, SD: East Gippsland Table 50: Socio-economic characteristics of Bruthen and East Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Bruthen (L) SD: East Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 621 +14.1% 78,402 +1.4% people people Proportion of population identifying as 2.7% -44.6% 2.0% +14.9% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 1.04 +0.05% 0.99 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 43 years +6 years 42 years +3 years % population under 14 20.3% -24.8% 19.2% -11.5% % population over 65 18.7% +22.8% 18.3% +15.2% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $619 N/A $711 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 4.9% +490.0% 8.2% +118.4% % low income households (<$500) 36.3% -36.1% 31.1% -30.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $607 N/A $867 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 6.3% -58.6% 6.1% -26.5% Labour force participation 55.0% +1.7% 57.9% +2.1% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 31.7% +7.9% 30.9% +7.2% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 72 people -34.5% 14,046 -5.7% people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 4.2% -51.9% 2.3% -17.7% Forestry & logging (ABS) 4 jobs +400.0% 290 jobs -16.9% Wood & paper product manufacturing 6 jobs -62.5% 468 jobs -4.7% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 44.4% N/A 18% N/A

Bruthen has relatively similar characteristics to East Gippsland as a whole but in some respects appears to have higher than average adaptive capacity and resilience to change, experiencing high population growth over 2001 to 2006, and having slightly more adults who completed high school than average. It does however have lower than average median household income, and fewer high income earning households and more low income earning households than average, suggesting a mix of trends in this town. When socio-economic characteristics of forest industry workers in Bruthen were compared to the forest industry average, no key differences were identified, largely because numbers of workers are too small for identification of meaningful differences to the average for the workforce as a whole.

4.10.3. Cann River (L) SLA: East Gippsland - Orbost, SSD: East Gippsland Shire, SD: East Gippsland Table 51: Socio-economic characteristics of Cann River and East Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Cann River SD: East Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 223 +5.7% 78,402 +1.4% people people Proportion of population identifying as 5.4% -48.7% 2.0% +14.9% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 1.17 -0.10% 0.99 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 44 years +9 years 42 years +3 years % population under 14 22.0% +22.7% 19.2% -11.5% % population over 65 9.9% +18.9% 18.3% +15.2% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $592 N/A $711 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 0.0% -100.0% 8.2% +118.4% % low income households (<$500) 41.5% -6.7% 31.1% -30.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $417 N/A $867 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 8.7% +122.2% 6.1% -26.5% Labour force participation 64.8% -6.3% 57.9% +2.1% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 26.2% +6.8% 30.9% +7.2% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 74 -3.8% 14,046 -5.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 24.5% -37.8% 2.3% -17.7% Forestry & logging (ABS) 5 jobs -78.3% 290 jobs -16.9% Wood & paper product manufacturing 18 jobs -21.7% 468 jobs -4.7% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 9.0% N/A 18% N/A Overall, Cann River has characteristics of a community experiencing some rural decline despite having a slow-growing population. The population is older than the East Gippsland average, median household income is lower and there is a high proportion of low income earning households. Housing loan repayments are much lower than average for the region. Unemployment is higher than average, as is labour force participation, and a lower than average proportion of adults have completed high school. When compared to the forest industry average, forest industry workers in Cann River were older than average, with 26% of workers aged 55 or over; somewhat less likely than other forest industry workers to have completed high school; more likely to work as labourers, managers/administrators or professionals than average, indicating a wide mix of skills in the workforce; and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 87% participation. This suggests that forest industry workers include a mix of occupations and it is likely that workers differ in their vulnerability to change depending on the type of occupation they work in.

4.10.4. Heyfield SLA: Wellington – Maffra, SSD: Wellington Shire. SD: East Gippsland Table 52: Socio-economic characteristics of Heyfield and East Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Heyfield SD: East Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 1,460 people -0.4% 78,402 +1.4% people Proportion of population identifying as 1.8% +785.2% 2.0% +14.9% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.88 -0.02% 0.99 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 43 years +5 years 42 years +3 years % population under 14 18.9% -17.0% 19.2% -11.5% % population over 65 19.2% +8.8% 18.3% +15.2% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $644 N/A $711 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 5.3% +110.4% 8.2% +118.4% % low income households (<$500) 35.0% -28.0% 31.1% -30.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $650 N/A $867 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 7.4% -23.2% 6.1% -26.5% Labour force participation 51.5% -0.9% 57.9% +2.1% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 21.9% +7.2% 30.9% +7.2% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 223 -13.6% 14,046 -5.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 18.4% +148.2% 2.3% -17.7% Forestry & logging (ABS) 25 jobs +300.0% 290 jobs -16.9% Wood & paper product manufacturing 76 jobs +188.6% 468 jobs -4.7% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 2.8% N/A 18% N/A Heyfield has characteristics of a community with slightly lower adaptive capacity than the East Gippsland average, although it is relatively similar to East Gippsland as a whole in many respects. It experienced slight population decline over 2001 to 2006, and slightly higher than average ageing of the population than the East Gippsland average. Median household income is somewhat lower than the East Gippsland average, although housing loan repayments are also lower than average; the proportion of low income earning households is slightly higher, and the town has higher unemployment and lower labour force participation than average. When socio-economic characteristics of forest industry workers in Heyfield were compared to the forest industry average, they were younger than average, with 44% of workers aged under 35; were less likely to have completed high school; more likely to be employed in relatively low skilled occupations (production and transport, and as labourers) than average; had lower than average housing loan repayments, but average income for the workforce, indicating reasonably low financial stress; and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 91% participation. Overall, workers are vulnerable to change primarily in the area of skills and training, but have relatively high financial capital given that housing loan repayments are low relative to income earned.

4.10.5. Lakes Entrance SLA: East Gippsland – Bairnsdale, SSD: East Gippsland Shire, SD: East Gippsland Table 53: Socio-economic characteristics of Lakes Entrance and East Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Lakes Entrance SD: East Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 5,545 +2.7% 78,402 +1.4% people people Proportion of population identifying as 3.7% +15.6% 2.0% +14.9% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.94 -0.01% 0.99 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 47 years +4 years 42 years +3 years % population under 14 16.8% -8.1% 19.2% -11.5% % population over 65 25.6% +14.2% 18.3% +15.2% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $588 N/A $711 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 4.4% +138.9% 8.2% +118.4% % low income households (>$500) 39.3% -28.5% 31.1% -30.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $962 N/A $867 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 8.0% -27.8% 6.1% -26.5% Labour force participation 47.5% +0.8% 57.9% +2.1% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 26.4% +9.7% 30.9% +7.2% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 799 -9.1% 14,046 -5.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 0.9% -49.9% 2.3% -17.7% Forestry & logging (ABS) 6 jobs -50.0% 290 jobs -16.9% Wood & paper product manufacturing 11 jobs -47.6% 468 jobs -4.7% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) Unknown N/A 18% N/A Overall, Lakes Entrance has characteristics of a community experiencing some rural decline and also a shift to a ‘seachange’ population, experiencing population growth associated with ageing of the population and high housing loan repayments, while it also has lower median household income than the East Gippsland average, a higher than average labour force participation rate, and low labour force participation. This suggests some vulnerability to change in terms of needing to support a high retiree population, and having high housing costs relative to income earned, in particular. When compared to the forest industry average, forest industry workers in Lakes Entrance were less likely than other forest industry workers to have completed high school, with only 16% having completed high school; were more likely to be employed as managers/administrators, professionals or labourers than average; and were more likely to work part-time hours than average. This does not suggest a clear pattern of higher or lower adaptive capacity or resilience to change than average in the workforce.

4.10.6. Marlo (L) SLA: East Gippsland – Orbost, SSD: East Gippsland Shire, SD: East Gippsland Table 54: Socio-economic characteristics of Marlo and East Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Marlo (L) SD: East Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 343 -3.1% 78,402 +1.4% people people Proportion of population identifying as 1.7% -11.8% 2.0% +14.9% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.99 +0.05% 0.99 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 48 years +7 years 42 years +3 years % population under 14 13.4% -37.7% 19.2% -11.5% % population over 65 24.2% +27.5% 18.3% +15.2% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $656 N/A $711 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 11.0% +98.3% 8.2% +118.4% % low income households (<$500) 34.7% -29.2% 31.1% -30.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $867 N/A $867 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 12.2% +105.6% 6.1% -26.5% Labour force participation 52.5% -14.1% 57.9% +2.1% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 30.2% -21.7% 30.9% +7.2% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 28 -37.8% 14,046 -5.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 8.5% +97.4% 2.3% -17.7% Forestry & logging (ABS) 7 jobs +133.3% 290 jobs -16.9% Wood & paper product manufacturing 4 jobs +33.3% 468 jobs -4.7% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) Unknown N/A 18% N/A

Marlo has characteristics of a community with low adaptive capacity and experiencing some rural decline. It experienced population decline over 2001 to 2006, and the median age of the population is six years older than the East Gippsland average. Median household income is lower than the East Gippsland average, the proportion of low income earning households slightly higher, and the town has much higher than average unemployment and somewhat lower labour force participation than average. Overall, Marlo has characteristics of a town experiencing some rural decline and as a result having potentially limited resilience to change. When socio-economic characteristics of forest industry workers in Marlo were compared to the forest industry average, no key differences were identified, largely because numbers of workers are too small for identification of meaningful differences to the average for the workforce as a whole.

4.10.7. Orbost SLA: East Gippsland - Orbost, SSD: East Gippsland Shire, SD: East Gippsland Table 55: Socio-economic characteristics of Orbost and East Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Orbost SD: East Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 2,096 -2.1% 78,402 +1.4% people people Proportion of population identifying as 6.0% +44.9% 2.0% +14.9% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.92 -0.03% 0.99 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 44 years +3 years 42 years +3 years % population under 14 19.0% -5.4% 19.2% -11.5% % population over 65 22.3% +13.4% 18.3% +15.2% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $555 N/A $711 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 2.7% +270.0% 8.2% +118.4% % low income households (<$500) 43.7% -18.9% 31.1% -30.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $693 N/A $867 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 9.6% +14.3% 6.1% -26.5% Labour force participation 48.3% -5.7% 57.9% +2.1% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 20.4% +8.3% 30.9% +7.2% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 633 +3.0% 14,046 -5.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 9.1% -40.7% 2.3% -17.7% Forestry & logging (ABS) 28 jobs -50.9% 290 jobs -16.9% Wood & paper product manufacturing 36 jobs -37.9% 468 jobs -4.7% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 0.0% N/A 18% N/A Orbost has characteristics of a community with low adaptive capacity and experiencing some rural decline. It experienced population decline over 2001 to 2006, and the median age of the population is slightly older than the East Gippsland average. Median household income is substantially lower than the East Gippsland average, the proportion of low income earning households higher, and the town has higher than average unemployment and lower labour force participation. The proportion of adults who have completed high school is lower than average. Overall, Orbost has characteristics of a town experiencing some rural decline and as a result having potentially limited resilience to change. When socio-economic characteristics of forest industry workers in Orbost were compared to the forest industry average, they were less likely to have completed high school; more likely to work as production and transport workers or labourers; had lower than average housing repayments, reflecting low housing costs in Orbost; were more likely to work over 40 hours a week; were more likely to be male (89%), and were more likely to be Indigenous than average, with 19% identifying as Indigenous. This suggests forestry workers in Orbost have some key vulnerabilities to change, although access to financial capital is relatively high.

4.10.8. Rosedale SLA: Wellington – Rosedale, SSD: Wellington Shire, SD: East Gippsland Table 56: Socio-economic characteristics of Bairnsdale and East Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Rosedale SD: East Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 1,075 +0.8% 78,402 +1.4% people people Proportion of population identifying as 1.8% -36.5% 2.0% +14.9% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 1.00 -0.04% 0.99 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 40 years +5 years 42 years +3 years % population under 14 18.0% -26.0% 19.2% -11.5% % population over 65 15.2% +17.0% 18.3% +15.2% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $775 N/A $711 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 10.8% +412.0% 8.2% +118.4% % low income households (<$500) 30.1% -29.6% 31.1% -30.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $758 N/A $867 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 8.6% -27.7% 6.1% -26.5% Labour force participation 56.8% +5.9% 57.9% +2.1% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 21.6% +17.6% 30.9% +7.2% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 124 -25.2% 14,046 -5.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 7.0% -7.2% 2.3% -17.7% Forestry & logging (ABS) 8 jobs -20.0% 290 jobs -16.9% Wood & paper product manufacturing (ABS) 22 jobs +22.2% 468 jobs -4.7% % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 100.0% N/A 18% N/A Overall, Rosedale has relatively similar characteristics to East Gippsland as a whole, with the exception of the following: there is slightly lower population growth, slightly more rapid ageing (but a younger median age), slightly higher household income and lower housing loan repayments, a higher unemployment rate and fewer adults who have completed high school compared to the East Gippsland average. School enrolments declined rapidly over 2001-06 compared to the East Gippsland average. This suggests that the population is slightly more vulnerable to change than the average for the region, particularly in the arena of human capital and access to employment opportunities. When characteristics of forestry workers in Rosedale were compared to the average for the forest industry, they were more likely to hold a certificate/diploma qualification, with 59% having completed this type of qualification; were more likely to work in production and transport or as labourers and less likely to work as managers/n administrators or clerical/service workers; earned higher income and had lower than average housing loan repayments, likely reflecting relatively low housing costs in the region; were more likely to work over 40 hours a week; and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce. This suggests that workers have access to high levels of financial capital and key trade related qualifications, but may experience stress related to high working hours.

4.10.9. Yarram SLA: Wellington – Alberton, SSD: Wellington Shire, SD: East Gippsland Table 57: Socio-economic characteristics of Yarram and East Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Yarram SD: East Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2001- 2006 Change 06 2001-06 Total population 1,716 -7.3% 78,402 +1.4% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.3% +56.4% 2.0% +14.9% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.92 +0.07% 0.99 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 48 years +4 years 42 years +3 years % population under 14 16.7% -12.0% 19.2% -11.5% % population over 65 28.1% +21.3% 18.3% +15.2% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2001- 2006 Change 06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $577 N/A $711 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 4.8% +168.0% 8.2% +118.4% % low income households (<$500) 42.8% -18.8% 31.1% -30.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $703 N/A $867 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2001- 2006 Change 06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 7.4% -11.4% 6.1% -26.5% Labour force participation 48.5% -3.5% 57.9% +2.1% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2001- 2006 Change 06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 25.5% +12.3% 30.9% +7.2% Local services 2006 Change 2001- 2006 Change 06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 739 -5.7% 14,046 -5.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2001- 2006 Change 06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 4.6% -1.5% 2.3% -17.7% Forestry & logging (ABS) 13 jobs 0.0% 290 jobs -16.9% Wood & paper product manufacturing 15 jobs -11.8% 468 jobs -4.7% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 100.0% N/A 18% N/A Overall, Yarram has characteristics of a community with low adaptive capacity and experiencing rural decline. It experienced high population decline over 2001 to 2006, and the median age of the population is six years older than the East Gippsland average, with a higher than average rate of growth on the proportion of people aged over 65. Median household income is substantially lower than the East Gippsland average, the proportion of low income earning households higher, and the town has higher than average unemployment and lower labour force participation. The proportion of adults who have completed high school is lower than average. Overall, Yarram has characteristics of a town experiencing significant rural decline and with limited resilience to change given the rate of existing decline. When socio-economic characteristics of forest industry workers in Yarram were compared to the forest industry average, they were less likely to have completed high school, with only 14% having done so; more likely to work as production and transport workers and labourers and less likely to work as managers/administrators or professionals; earned lower income than average; and there was greater male participation (86%). This suggests forest industry workers in Yarram, similar to the broader population of the town, are highly vulnerable to change.

4.11. Gippsland Statistical Division Forest industry workers make up 2.7% of the employed workforce in the Statistical Division of Gippsland, with this region ranking first out of the 11 SDs in Victoria in terms of dependence on the forest industry. In total, 2,145 people work in the forest industry in this region, of which 1,811 are employed in the growing, services to forestry and primary processing sectors (FIS), and a further 334 in the secondary processing sector (ABS 2006). Over 1996 to 2006, forest industry employment grew by 12% according to ABS data. This change included 64% growth in the number of jobs in the forestry sector, and a decline of 27% in logging jobs. In the processing sector, jobs fell by 34% in the logging and sawmilling sector, but grew by 73% in other wood product manufacturing and by 31% in pulp, paper and paperboard manufacturing over this period (ABS 1996, 2006). Key socio-economic characteristics of the Gippsland SD were compared to the Victorian average, shown in the table on the following page. Overall the region has characteristics suggesting slightly lower adaptive capacity than the average for the state, with a slightly older population, lower household income, higher unemployment, a lower proportion of adults who have completed high school, and declining school enrolments compared to the state as a whole, although housing repayments are also lower than average, indicating relatively low housing costs. When examining characteristics of forestry workers, workers in the Gippsland SD differed from the forest industry average in a number of ways that suggest workers have higher adaptive capacity compared to the industry average, although longer than average working hours does suggest potential stress for some in the industry: • Human capital Age: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted High school education: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted Post-school qualifications: Workers are more likely to hold a certificate/diploma or university level qualification than average Occupation: In some forest industry sectors a high proportion of production and transport workers and labourers were located in Gippsland SD; otherwise no specific patterns were observed • Financial capital Individual income: Workers earn significantly higher than average income, largely due to the pulp and paper manufacturing sector Housing loan repayments: No significant differences between this region compared to other regions • Working conditions Full-time, part-time and casual workers: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted Working hours: Workers were more likely to work over 40 a week compared to workers in other regions Staff turnover: Staff turnover was higher in this SD than the industry average

Table 58: Socio-economic characteristics of Gippsland SD and Victoria, 2001-06 SD: Gippsland State: Victoria Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 155,883 +3.2% 4,932,422 +5.8% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.9% +11.7% 0.6% +1.0% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.96 0.00% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 39 years +2 years 37 years +1 years % population under 14 20.2% -10.2% 19.3% -5.5% % population over 65 16.4% +14.4% 13.7% +8.1% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $770 N/A $1,022 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 10.3% +127.3% 17.8% +87.1% % low income households (<$500) 29.2% -30.7% 21.9% -29.1% Median housing repayment (monthly) $910 N/A $1,252 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 6.5% -29.3% 5.4% -20.2% Labour force participation 60.5% +2.6% 64.4% +1.9% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 32.8% +12.6% 48.7% +8.8% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 29,847 -3.7% 786,667 +1.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 2.7% -9.6% 0.8% -10.5% Forestry & logging (ABS) 279 jobs -1.4% 1,602 jobs -17.2% Wood & paper product manufacturing 1,503 jobs +1.9% 17,541 -0.6% (ABS) jobs % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 67% N/A 67.9% N/A • Workforce participation Gender: Less women participate in the forestry workforce in this region compared to the average, across all forest industry sectors, and Indigenous participation: No significant differences between this region and the industry average were noted. Twelve UC/Ls within this region have high dependence on forest industry employment: Churchill, Drouin, Glengarry, Moe-Yallourn, Morwell, Toongabbie, Trafalgar, Traralgon, Traralgon South, Tyers, Warragul, and Yinnar. The socio-economic characteristics of each are described on the following pages. Of these UC/Ls, Glengarry, Traralgon, Traralgon South, Tyers, Warragul and Yinnar have characteristics suggesting higher adaptive capacity than the average for the region, while Churchill, Moe-Yallourn, Morwell and Trafalgar have characteristics suggesting lower adaptive capacity, and Drouin and Toongabbie a mix of characteristics with no clear pattern identified regarding adaptive capacity.

4.11.1. Churchill SLA: Latrobe - Morwell, SSD: La Trobe Valley, SD: Gippsland Table 59: Socio-economic characteristics of Churchill and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Churchill SD: Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 4,591 -6.8% 155,883 +3.2% people people Proportion of population identifying as 1.3% -17.6% 0.9% +11.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.97 +0.02% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 32 years +3 years 39years +2 years % population under 14 18.8% -15.8% 20.2% -10.2% % population over 65 8.8% +73.6% 16.4% +14.4% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $793 N/A $770 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 11.6% +99.9% 10.3% +127.3% % low income households (<$500) 28.2% -23.8% 29.2% -30.7% Median housing repayment (monthly) $650 N/A $910 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 11.3% -23.1% 6.5% -29.3% Labour force participation 57.6% -1.7% 60.5% +2.6% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 38.9% +1.8% 32.8% +12.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 1,678 -17.3% 29,847 -3.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 3.2% +15.6% 2.7% -9.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 5 jobs -16.7% 279 jobs -1.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 53 jobs +17.8% 1503 jobs +1.9% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 100.0% N/A 67% N/A Churchill has several characteristics that suggest a greater vulnerability to change and lower adaptive capacity than the Gippsland average, including overall population decline, a high unemployment rate and lower than average labour force participation. However, the proportion of adults having completed high school is higher than the regional average, and income similar to the average, while the population is younger than the regional average, indicating some mix of trends in terms of adaptive capacity. When compared to the forest industry average, forestry workers in Churchill were less likely than other forest industry workers to have completed high school, with only 30% having completed high school; more likely to work in low skilled occupations, as either production and transport workers or labourers; earned higher income than average but had lower than average housing loan repayments, indicating relatively low debt stress; worked longer hours, and had higher than average male participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 88% participation. This suggests a mix of characteristics, with high financial capital but relatively low human capital in the forestry workforce.

4.11.2. Drouin SLA: Baw Baw – Part B West, SSD: West Gippsland, SD: Gippsland Table 60: Socio-economic characteristics of Drouin and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Drouin SD: Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 6,856 +14.4% 155,883 +3.2% people people Proportion of population identifying as 2.3% +4.3% 0.9% +11.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.93 +0.01% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 40 years +3 years 39years +2 years % population under 14 20.2% -16.7% 20.2% -10.2% % population over 65 18.8% +16.3% 16.4% +14.4% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $794 N/A $770 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 8.6% +176.0% 10.3% +127.3% % low income households (<$500) 28.5% -31.2% 29.2% -30.7% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,031 N/A $910 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 4.7% -38.0% 6.5% -29.3% Labour force participation 57.4% +0.2% 60.5% +2.6% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 30.5% +20.4% 32.8% +12.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 2,361 +2.3% 29,847 -3.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 1.3% -39.0% 2.7% -9.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 3 jobs -75.0% 279 jobs -1.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 35 jobs -2.8% 1503 jobs +1.9% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) Unknown N/A 67% N/A Drouin has relatively similar characteristics to the Gippsland average, with the following exceptions: population growth is higher, median housing repayments higher despite income being similar to the regional average, indicating some potential debt stress, and unemployment lower than the regional average. Forest industry workers in Drouin differ to the average in that they were less likely than other forest industry workers to have completed high school, with only 9% having completed high school; more likely to work as tradespersons and production and transport workers, and less likely to work as professionals or clerical and service workers; earned less than the industry average; and had lower than average monthly housing loan repayments. This suggests forest industry workers in Drouin are highly vulnerable to change, having several characteristics that suggest a low adaptive capacity.

4.11.3. Glengarry SLA: Latrobe – Traralgon, SSD: La Trobe Valley, SD: Gippsland Table 61: Socio-economic characteristics of Glengarry and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Glengarry SD: Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 678 -3.5% 155,883 +3.2% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.6% -49.3% 0.9% +11.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 1.01 +0.03% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 33 years +4 years 39years +2 years % population under 14 27.6% -16.8% 20.2% -10.2% % population over 65 4.3% +33.8% 16.4% +14.4% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $1,137 N/A $770 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 17.4% +211.1% 10.3% +127.3% % low income households (<$500) 14.7% -30.9% 29.2% -30.7% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,040 N/A $910 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 4.9% -39.1% 6.5% -29.3% Labour force participation 73.7% +6.2% 60.5% +2.6% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 30.8% +21.6% 32.8% +12.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 96 people -36.0% 29,847 -3.7% people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 8.7% -13.5% 2.7% -9.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 3 jobs -25.0% 279 jobs -1.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 26 jobs +4.0% 1503 jobs +1.9% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 100.0% N/A 67% N/A Despite having a declining population, Glengarry has a number of characteristics suggesting its population has greater adaptive capacity and resilience to change than the Gippsland average. In particular, the population is younger than average, has a high median household income and fewer low income households than the regional average, low unemployment and high labour force participation. When compared to the forest industry average, forest industry workers in Glengarry were less likely to have completed high school; more likely to work in low-skilled occupations, as production and transport workers or labourers, and less likely to work as professionals or managers/administrators; earned more income than the average for the industry; and were more likely to be male, with 100% of workers in the industry male in 2006. This suggests a mix of characteristics; while high incomes contribute to adaptive capacity, forest industry workers are typically low-skilled in this town which may reduce adaptive capacity compared to the industry average.

4.11.4. Moe-Yallourn SLA: Latrobe – Moe, SSD: La Trobe Valley, SD: Gippsland Table 62: Socio-economic characteristics of Moe-Yallourn and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Moe-Yallourn SD: Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 15,581 -1.5% 155,883 +3.2% people people Proportion of population identifying as 1.4% +27.5% 0.9% +11.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.94 0.00% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 39 years +3 years 39years +2 years % population under 14 20.0% -10.3% 20.2% -10.2% % population over 65 18.3% +12.6% 16.4% +14.4% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $618 N/A $770 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 7.4% +210.4% 10.3% +127.3% % low income households (<$500) 37.2% -27.3% 29.2% -30.7% Median housing repayment (monthly) $737 N/A $910 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 10.8% -30.9% 6.5% -29.3% Labour force participation 53.0% +3.3% 60.5% +2.6% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 27.3% +13.0% 32.8% +12.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 2,841 -7.8% 29,847 -3.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 2.4% +14.1% 2.7% -9.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 12 jobs 0.0% 279 jobs -1.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 123 jobs +29.5% 1503 jobs +1.9% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 100.0% N/A 67% N/A Moe-Yallourn has some key indicators of high vulnerability to change compared to the Gippsland average, experiencing population decline over 2001 to 2006, a greater rate of population ageing, and having lower median household income and higher unemployment than the regional average. Forest industry workers in Moe-Yallourn differ from the Victorian forest industry average in that they were younger than average, with 48% of workers aged under 35; less likely to have completed high school, with only 28% having done so (similar to the average for Moe- Yallourn); more likely to work in production and transport occupations and less likely to work in management, administration or as clerical or service workers; had lower home loan repayments and worked longer hours than average; and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 93% participation. This suggests workers in this region have somewhat lower adaptive capacity compared to the industry average.

4.11.5. Morwell SLA: Latrobe – Morwell, SSD: La Trobe Valley, SD: Gippsland Table 63: Socio-economic characteristics of Morwell and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Morwell SD: Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 13,398 -2.5% 155,883 +3.2% people people Proportion of population identifying as 2.3% +9.6% 0.9% +11.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.94 0.0% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 39 years +3 years 39years +2 years % population under 14 18.9% -11.8% 20.2% -10.2% % population over 65 18.0% +16.7% 16.4% +14.4% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $608 N/A $770 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 7.0% +148.8% 10.3% +127.3% % low income households (<$500) 37.9% -24.1% 29.2% -30.7% Median housing repayment (monthly) $737 N/A $910 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 12.2% -25.0% 6.5% -29.3% Labour force participation 52.0% +1.3% 60.5% +2.6% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 28.5% +14.3% 32.8% +12.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 1,232 -15.0% 29,847 -3.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 4.2% -17.5% 2.7% -9.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 21 jobs +31.3% 279 jobs -1.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 173 jobs -15.6% 1503 jobs +1.9% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 69.9% N/A 67% N/A Morwell has some key indicators of high vulnerability to change compared to the Gippsland average, experiencing population decline over 2001 to 2006, a greater rate of population ageing, and having lower median household income and higher unemployment than the regional average. Forest industry workers in Morwell differ from the Victorian forest industry average in that they were more likely to work in production and transport occupations and less likely to work in management, administration, or as tradespersons; they earned higher income and had lower home loan repayments; worked longer hours than average; and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 89% participation. This suggests that forest industry workers do not share the characteristics of the broader community of Morwell, particularly with regard to income where they have higher financial capital than is typical for the broader community in which they are located.

4.11.6. Toongabbie (L) SLA: Latrobe – Traralgon, SSD: La Trobe Valley, SD: Gippsland Table 64: Socio-economic characteristics of Toongabbie and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Toongabbie SD: Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 464 -3.0% 155,883 +3.2% people people Proportion of population identifying as 2.6% +299.1% 0.9% +11.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.95 +0.03% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 32 years 0 years 39years +2 years % population under 14 27.2% -12.1% 20.2% -10.2% % population over 65 7.5% +74.6% 16.4% +14.4% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $937 N/A $770 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 10.0% +7.3% 10.3% +127.3% % low income households (<$500) 24.2% -13.6% 29.2% -30.7% Median housing repayment (monthly) $693 N/A $910 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 8.9% -50.7% 6.5% -29.3% Labour force participation 66.7% +0.5% 60.5% +2.6% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 24.7% +11.1% 32.8% +12.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 118 -0.3% 29,847 -3.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 8.4% -69.4% 2.7% -9.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 0 jobs -100.0% 279 jobs -1.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 5 jobs -54.5% 1503 jobs +1.9% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) Unknown N/A 67% N/A

Toongabbie has somewhat different characteristics to the Gippsland region as a whole, although these do not consistently suggest higher or lower adaptive capacity and vulnerability to change compared to the regional average. Despite experiencing population decline, a higher unemployment rate and lower proportion of adults who have completed high school compared to the Gippsland average, there is higher than average household income and high labour force participation, and a younger than average population. Forest industry workers in Toongabbie had similar characteristics to the average for the forest industry.

4.11.7. Trafalgar SLA: Baw Baw - Pt A, SSD: La Trobe Valley, SD: Gippsland Table 65: Socio-economic characteristics of Trafalgar and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Trafalgar SD: Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 2,301 -1.3% 155,883 +3.2% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.2% +98.7% 0.9% +11.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.88 -0.08% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 42 years +5 years 39years +2 years % population under 14 19.5% -17.4% 20.2% -10.2% % population over 65 20.7% +31.6% 16.4% +14.4% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $768 N/A $770 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 10.2% +214.1% 10.3% +127.3% % low income households (<$500) 29.4% -29.7% 29.2% -30.7% Median housing repayment (monthly) $867 N/A $910 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 7.0% -20.9% 6.5% -29.3% Labour force participation 59.2% +4.9% 60.5% +2.6% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 30.4% +17.6% 32.8% +12.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 1,049 +8.5% 29,847 -3.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 2.8% +37.6% 2.7% -9.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 6 jobs 0.0% 279 jobs -1.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 21 jobs +75.0% 1503 jobs +1.9% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) Unknown N/A 67% N/A The population of Trafalgar are overall slightly less resilient than the Gippsland average, with the town declining in population, having an older population and slightly lower median household income and higher unemployment rate than the regional average, although the differences are not large. Forest industry workers in Trafalgar differ to the average Victorian forest industry worker in that they were younger than average, with 58% of workers aged under 35; were less likely than other forest industry workers to have completed high school; were more likely than other forest industry workers to hold a certificate/diploma qualification; had a lower than average numbers of professionals, tradespersons, clerical and service workers, and higher than average numbers of production and transport workers; a higher than average proportion worked more than 40 hours per week; and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 89% participation. This suggests that, similar to the town population, forest industry workers in Trafalgar are somewhat more vulnerable to change compared to the industry average.

4.11.8. Traralgon SLA: Latrobe – Traralgon, SSD: La Trobe Valley, SD: Gippsland Table 66: Socio-economic characteristics of Traralgon and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Traralgon SD: Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 21,960 +9.5% 155,883 +3.2% people people Proportion of population identifying as 1.0% +21.2% 0.9% +11.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.94 0.00% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 35 years +1 years 39years +2 years % population under 14 22.2% -5.3% 20.2% -10.2% % population over 65 12.7% +11.8% 16.4% +14.4% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $956 N/A $770 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 14.1% +134.1% 10.3% +127.3% % low income households (<$500) 23.8% -33.0% 29.2% -30.7% Median housing repayment (monthly) $975 N/A $910 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 6.5% -29.3% 6.5% -29.3% Labour force participation 65.1% +3.2% 60.5% +2.6% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 36.4% +14.2% 32.8% +12.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 3,581 -10.7% 29,847 -3.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 6.6% -11.5% 2.7% -9.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 73 jobs +2.8% 279 jobs -1.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing (ABS) 561 jobs +1.3% 1503 jobs +1.9% % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 75.4% N/A 67% N/A Traralgon has a population that is faster growing and younger than the Gippsland average, and earns higher income than the regional average. The population has other additional indicators of higher resilience than the Gippsland average, with a higher than average proportion of adults having completed high school. However, school enrolments have been declining, indicating change in local services; this is consistent with a decline in the proportion of the population aged under 14. Forest industry workers in Traralgon had some different characteristics to the industry average. They were more likely than other forest industry workers to hold a certificate/diploma qualification, with 42% having this type of post-school qualification; were less likely to be managers/administrators or clerical and service workers, but more likely to be production and transport workers and labourers; earned higher than average income; worked higher than average hours, with a greater than average proportion of workers working over 40 hours per week; and there was greater male participation in the forest industry workforce than average, with 93% participation. This suggests that while forest industry workers are relatively low-skilled, with a focus on trade qualifications only, they earn higher than average incomes, consistent with the Traralgon population more broadly.

4.11.9. Traralgon South (L) SLA: Latrobe – Traralgon, SSD: La Trobe Valley, SD: Gippsland Table 67: Socio-economic characteristics of Traralgon South and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Traralgon South (L) SD: Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 302 N/A 155,883 +3.2% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.0% N/A 0.9% +11.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.82 N/A 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 32 years N/A 39years +2 years % population under 14 35.1% N/A 20.2% -10.2% % population over 65 1.0% N/A 16.4% +14.4% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $1,631 N/A $770 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 26.3% N/A 10.3% +127.3% % low income households (<$500) 0.0% N/A 29.2% -30.7% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,229 N/A $910 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 1.8% N/A 6.5% -29.3% Labour force participation 85.3% N/A 60.5% +2.6% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 44.8% N/A 32.8% +12.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 110 -5.2% 29,847 -3.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 5.6% N/A 2.7% -9.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 3 jobs N/A 279 jobs -1.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing (ABS) 6 jobs N/A 1503 jobs +1.9% % workers in plantation sector (FIS) Unknown N/A 67% N/A Overall, Traralgon South has a young, high income earning family oriented population, earning higher income and with very low unemployment compared to the Gippsland average. This is consistent with its status as a growing town, with the population only having grown above 200 for the first time in 2006 (as a result, no data are available identifying change in characteristics over 2001 to 2006). A very high proportion of adults have completed high school compared to the regional average, and housing loan repayments are higher than the average, consistent with the high incomes earned. Key potential vulnerabilities are the high proportion of the population aged under 14, indicating this is a town with many young families reliant on high incomes to service housing debt and support their families, with potential difficulty for working in shifting locations to transition to new jobs easily, and high exposure to debt stress if employment opportunities reduce in the region. However, the high skills and income earned provide high adaptive capacity. Forest industry workers in Traralgon South did not have characteristics that differed from the average for the forestry workforce.

4.11.10. Tyers (L) SLA: Latrobe – Traralgon, SSD: La Trobe Valley, SD: Gippsland Table 68: Socio-economic characteristics of Tyers and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Tyers SD: Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 243 +8.4% 155,883 +3.2% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.0% -100.0% 0.9% +11.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 1.06 +0.04% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 30 years -5 years 39years +2 years % population under 14 30.9% +22.4% 20.2% -10.2% % population over 65 3.7% -16.3% 16.4% +14.4% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $1,129 N/A $770 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 19.4% +167.4% 10.3% +127.3% % low income households (<$500) 12.5% -50.9% 29.2% -30.7% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,083 N/A $910 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 2.4% -86.4% 6.5% -29.3% Labour force participation 72.8% +4.8% 60.5% +2.6% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 36.0% -6.2% 32.8% +12.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 74 -16.9% 29,847 -3.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 10.0% -8.2% 2.7% -9.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 0 jobs -100.0% 279 jobs -1.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 12 jobs +50.0% 1503 jobs +1.9% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 0.0% N/A 67% N/A Tyers has a young, relatively high income population, indicating mostly low vulnerability to change except for the high dependency ratio, with many working families in the region with high home loan repayments who may be more vulnerable to changes that involve loss of work compared to the Gippsland average. Tyers has a younger population than the Gippsland average, which is growing rapidly. Median household incomes are higher than the regional average, with a high proportion of high income households and fewer low income households than the Gippsland average, and very low unemployment and high labour force participation. Despite the high proportion of population aged under 14, school enrolments declined over 2001 to 2006, suggesting those living in Tyers typically access some key services in other locations. When the socio-economic characteristics of the Tyers forest industry workforce were examined, workers were more likely to hold a certificate/diploma qualification than the forest industry average, with 73% having completed certificate/diploma qualification. Other than this, workers were similar to the industry average, which suggests they tend to be older than the Tyers average, and less likely to have completed high school.

4.11.11. Warragul SLA: Baw Baw – Part B West, SSD: West Gippsland, SD: Gippsland Table 69: Socio-economic characteristics of Warragul and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Warragul SD: Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 11,501 +8.6% 155,883 +3.2% people people Proportion of population identifying as 1.0% +47.0% 0.9% +11.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 0.88 0.00% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 37 years +1 years 39years +2 years % population under 14 22.0% -5.0% 20.2% -10.2% % population over 65 16.0% +4.8% 16.4% +14.4% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $885 N/A $770 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 12.2% +148.8% 10.3% +127.3% % low income households (<$500) 26.5% -28.9% 29.2% -30.7% Median housing repayment (monthly) $1,083 N/A $910 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 5.4% -13.0% 6.5% -29.3% Labour force participation 62.2% +3.4% 60.5% +2.6% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 37.1% +14.4% 32.8% +12.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 3,980 +8.0% 29,847 -3.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 1.2% -24.9% 2.7% -9.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 18 jobs +50.0% 279 jobs -1.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing (ABS) 44 jobs -26.7% 1503 jobs +1.9% % workers in plantation sector (FIS) 42.2% N/A 67% N/A The population of Warragul has higher adaptive capacity and resilience to change compared to the Gippsland average. Warragul residents earn higher median household incomes, and have a higher proportion of high income households and lower proportion of low income households compared to the Gippsland average. The population is also slightly younger than the average, with slightly lower unemployment and higher labour force participation, and a higher proportion of residents having completed high school. The population is growing rapidly, as are school enrolments. When the socio-economic characteristics of the Warragul forest industry workforce were compared to the forest industry average, they were more likely to hold a university level qualification, with 17% having completed a university level qualification; there was a higher than average proportion of professionals/associated professionals; they earned higher income and had higher than average home loan repayments; they worked longer hours, and there was greater male participation than average (92%). This suggests that forest industry workers in Warragul, similar to the broader population in Warragul, are relatively resilient to change and have good adaptive capacity.

4.11.12. Yinnar (L) SLA: Latrobe – Morwell, SSD: La Trobe Valley, SD: Gippsland Table 70: Socio-economic characteristics of Yinnar and Gippsland SD, 2001-06 Yinnar (L) SD: Gippsland Population and age distribution 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total population 588 -1.5% 155,883 +3.2% people people Proportion of population identifying as 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% +11.7% Indigenous (%) Ratio of male to female population (figure 1.05 +0.07% 0.96 0.00% indicates number of males for every female in the total population) Median age 40 years +2 years 39years +2 years % population under 14 20.7% -16.7% 20.2% -10.2% % population over 65 12.4% +19.8% 16.4% +14.4% Income and housing costs 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Median household income (weekly) $933 N/A $770 N/A % high income households (>$2,000) 13.2% +41.4% 10.3% +127.3% % low income households (<$500) 23.7% -37.3% 29.2% -30.7% Median housing repayment (monthly) $750 N/A $910 N/A Employment and labour force 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Unemployment rate 3.5% -64.5% 6.5% -29.3% Labour force participation 64.8% +4.1% 60.5% +2.6% Educational attainment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Adults who completed high school 36.0% +7.3% 32.8% +12.6% Local services 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 Total school enrolments 199 0.0% 29,847 -3.7% people people Forestry employment 2006 Change 2006 Change 2001-06 2001-06 % labour force in forest industry (ABS) 4.7% +23.2% 2.7% -9.6% Forestry & logging (ABS) 4 jobs +33.3% 279 jobs -1.4% Wood & paper product manufacturing 9 jobs +80.0% 1503 jobs +1.9% (ABS) % workers in plantation sector (FIS) Unknown N/A 67% N/A

The socio-economic characteristics of Yinnar indicate that its community is relatively resilient to change compared to the Gippsland average, although it has some potential vulnerabilities. Yinner has experienced a declining population over 2001 to 2006, but has a similar median age to the Gippsland average, and fewer people aged over 65, as well as higher than average median income and higher than average households earning a high income, indicating its population has greater financial capital compared to the Gippsland average. There is high employment and labour force participation, and a higher than average proportion of people who have completed high school. Forest industry workers in Yinnar were not identified as having characteristics different to the industry average.

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5. Discussion and conclusions This report has identified the extent and nature of forest industry employment in different towns and localities in Victoria, identified which towns are most dependent on the forest industry, and examined key characteristics of those towns most dependent on the forest industry. While there is considerable variation in forest industry employment trends across different towns and localities, similar patterns of change were seen to those discussed in Part 1 when examining how employment had changed in different regions of the State. Towns experiencing decline in employment are typically located in SDs where forest industry employment is highly dependent on native forests, while employment has typically grown in regions with high dependence on softwood and hardwood plantations, or where processing facilities have established or expanded. Towns with high dependence on the forest industry identified as having potentially lower than average adaptive capacity compared to the broader region in which they are located were Alexandra, Barham-Koondrook (Koondrook part), Beeac, Benalla, Beaufort, Cann River, Casterton, Churchill, Corryong, Dartmoor, Hazeldene, Healesville, Heywood, Marlo, Moe- Yallourn, Morwell, Myrtleford, Orbost, Pakenham, Powelltown, Seymour, Trafalgar, Woori Yallock, Yarra Junction, and Yarram. Many of these towns have lower populations and are located in more remote rural and regional areas compared to forestry dependent towns identified as having similar or higher than average adaptive capacity to the region in which they are located. Towns with high dependence on the forest industry identified as having higher than average adaptive capacity compared to the broader regions in which they are located were Albury- Wodonga (Wodonga part), Gisborne, Glengarry, Kilmore, Leopold, Romsey, Traralgon, Traralgon South, Tyers, Wallan, Warragul and Yinnar, most of which are either relatively large towns, or located in the Gippsland region. The adaptive capacity of the 54 towns with greatest dependence on the forest industry was compared to analyse whether those more dependent on the forest industry typically had higher or lower adaptive capacity. Towns with higher dependence on the forest industry were more likely to have low adaptive capacity than those with low dependence on the forest industry. However, this pattern was not entirely consistent, suggesting other factors may be just as or more important than the extent of forest industry dependence in influencing adaptive capacity. Rate of population change was found to be more strongly correlated with adaptive capacity than the extent of forest industry dependence, for example. Further work is needed to identify the reasons why towns with higher dependence on the forest industry are more likely than others to have low adaptive capacity, and the various factors playing a role in this.

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