Unit-Ii Stock Analysis and Valuation Topics Covered
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Stock Valuation Models (4.1)
Research STOCK VALUATION January 6, 2003 MODELS (4.1) Topical Study #58 All disclosures can be found on the back page. Dr. Edward Yardeni (212) 778-2646 [email protected] 2 Figure 1. 75 75 70 STOCK VALUATION MODEL (SVM-1)* 70 65 (percent) 65 60 60 55 55 50 50 45 45 RESEARCH 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 Overvalued 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 -20 -20 -25 -25 -30 Undervalued -30 -35 12/27 -35 -40 -40 -45 -45 Yardeni Stock ValuationModels -50 -50 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 January 6,2003 * Ratio of S&P 500 index to its fair value (i.e. 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share divided by the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield) minus 100. Monthly through March 1994, weekly after. Source: Thomson Financial. R E S E A R C H Stock Valuation Models I. The Art Of Valuation Since the summer of 1997, I have written three major studies on stock valuation and numerous commentaries on the subject.1 This is the fourth edition of this ongoing research. More so in the past than in the present, it was common for authors of investment treatises to publish several editions to update and refine their thoughts. My work on valuation has been acclaimed, misunderstood, and criticized. In this latest edition, I hope to clear up the misunderstandings and address some of the criticisms. -
An Overview of the Empirical Asset Pricing Approach By
AN OVERVIEW OF THE EMPIRICAL ASSET PRICING APPROACH BY Dr. GBAGU EJIROGHENE EMMANUEL TABLE OF CONTENT Introduction 1 Historical Background of Asset Pricing Theory 2-3 Model and Theory of Asset Pricing 4 Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): 4 Capital Asset Pricing Model Formula 4 Example of Capital Asset Pricing Model Application 5 Capital Asset Pricing Model Assumptions 6 Advantages associated with the use of the Capital Asset Pricing Model 7 Hitches of Capital Pricing Model (CAPM) 8 The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT): 9 The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) Formula 10 Example of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory Application 10 Assumptions of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory 11 Advantages associated with the use of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory 12 Hitches associated with the use of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) 13 Actualization 14 Conclusion 15 Reference 16 INTRODUCTION This paper takes a critical examination of what Asset Pricing is all about. It critically takes an overview of its historical background, the model and Theory-Capital Asset Pricing Model and Arbitrary Pricing Theory as well as those who introduced/propounded them. This paper critically examines how securities are priced, how their returns are calculated and the various approaches in calculating their returns. In this Paper, two approaches of asset Pricing namely Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) as well as the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) are examined looking at their assumptions, advantages, hitches as well as their practical computation using their formulae in their examination as well as their computation. This paper goes a step further to look at the importance Asset Pricing to Accountants, Financial Managers and other (the individual investor). -
Certain Issues Affecting Customers in the Current Equity Market Structure
MEMORANDUM TO: Equity Market Structure Advisory Committee FROM: Securities and Exchange Commission, Division of Trading and Markets1 DATE: January 26, 2016 SUBJECT: Certain Issues Affecting Customers in the Current Equity Market Structure I. INTRODUCTION This memorandum is intended to facilitate consideration by the Committee of certain issues affecting customers—particularly retail customers—in the current equity market structure, namely: (1) the risks of using certain order types, (2) the potential conflicts presented by payment-for-order-flow arrangements, and (3) the development of more meaningful execution- quality reports. The memorandum first discusses the use of certain order types (market orders and stop orders) by retail investors, risks that have been identified with the use of those order types, and potential ways to address them. The memorandum then discusses payment for order flow, laying out the history and current status of payment-for-order-flow arrangements, the potential conflicts of interest and market-structure issues they can create, and possible solutions. Finally, the memorandum discusses execution-quality reports currently available to customers, laying out the current disclosures required by Rules 605 and 606 of Regulation NMS under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (“Exchange Act”), the significant ways in which the equity markets have changed since those requirements were adopted, and enhancements to these disclosures that have been suggested by market participants. II. RISKS OF MARKET ORDERS AND STOP ORDERS Although exchanges and other trading centers today offer market participants a wide variety of complex order types, retail investors generally tend to rely upon a small set of relatively straightforward order types: market orders, limit orders, stop orders, and time-in-force orders. -
The Predictive Ability of the Bond-Stock Earnings Yield Differential Model
The Predictive Ability of the Bond-Stock Earnings Yield Differential Model KLAUS BERGE,GIORGIO CONSIGLI, AND WILLIAM T. ZIEMBA FORMAT ANY IN KLAUS BERGE he Federal Reserve (Fed) model prices and stock indices has been studied by is a financial controller provides a framework for discussing Campbell [1987, 1990, 1993]; Campbell and for Allianz SE in Munich, stock market over- and undervalu- Shiller [1988]; Campbell and Yogo [2006]; Germany. [email protected] ation. It was introduced by market Fama and French [1988a, 1989]; Goetzmann Tpractitioners after Alan Greenspan’s speech on and Ibbotson [2006]; Jacobs and Levy [1988]; GIORGIO CONSIGLI the market’s irrational exuberance in ARTICLELakonishok, Schleifer, and Vishny [1994]; Polk, is an associate professor in November 1996 as an attempt to understand Thompson, and Vuolteenaho [2006], and the Department of Mathe- and predict variations in the equity risk pre- Ziemba and Schwartz [1991, 2000]. matics, Statistics, and Com- mium (ERP). The model relates the yield on The Fed model has been successful in puter Science at the THIS University of Bergamo stocks (measured by the ratio of earnings to predicting market turns, but in spite of its in Bergamo, Italy. stock prices) to the yield on nominal Treasury empirical success and simplicity, the model has [email protected] bonds. The theory behind the Fed model is been criticized. First, it does not consider the that an optimal asset allocation between stocks role played by time-varying risk premiums in WILLIAM T. Z IEMBA and bonds is related to their relative yields and the portfolio selection process, yet it does con- is Alumni Professor of Financial Modeling and when the bond yield is too high, a market sider a risk-free government interest rate as the Stochastic Optimization, adjustment is needed resulting in a shift out of discount factor of future earnings. -
Dividend Valuation Models Prepared by Pamela Peterson Drake, Ph.D., CFA
Dividend valuation models Prepared by Pamela Peterson Drake, Ph.D., CFA Contents 1. Overview ..................................................................................................................................... 1 2. The basic model .......................................................................................................................... 1 3. Non-constant growth in dividends ................................................................................................. 5 A. Two-stage dividend growth ...................................................................................................... 5 B. Three-stage dividend growth .................................................................................................... 5 C. The H-model ........................................................................................................................... 7 4. The uses of the dividend valuation models .................................................................................... 8 5. Stock valuation and market efficiency ......................................................................................... 10 6. Summary .................................................................................................................................. 10 7. Index ........................................................................................................................................ 11 8. Further readings ....................................................................................................................... -
A Theory of Speculative Bubbles, the Fed Model, and Self-Fulfilling
Monetary Exchange in Over-the-Counter Markets: A Theory of Speculative Bubbles, the Fed Model, and Self-fulfilling Liquidity Crises Ricardo Lagos∗ Shengxing Zhangy New York University London School of Economics September 2014 Abstract We develop a model of monetary exchange in over-the-counter markets to study the ef- fects of monetary policy on asset prices and standard measures of financial liquidity, such as bid-ask spreads, trade volume, and the incentives of dealers to supply immediacy, both by participating in the market-making activity and by holding asset inventories on their own account. The theory predicts that asset prices carry a speculative premium that reflects the asset's marketability and depends on monetary policy as well as the microstructure of the market where it is traded. These liquidity considerations imply a positive correlation between the real yield on stocks and the nominal yield on Treasury bonds|an empirical observation long regarded anomalous. The theory also exhibits rational expectations equi- libria with recurring belief driven events that resemble liquidity crises, i.e., times of sharp persistent declines in asset prices, trade volume, and dealer participation in market-making activity, accompanied by large increases in spreads and abnormally long trading delays. Keywords: Money; Liquidity; OTC markets; Asset prices; Fed model; Financial crises JEL classification: D83, E31, E52, G12 ∗Lagos thanks the support from the C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics at NYU. yZhang thanks the support from the Centre -
Module 8 Investing in Stocks
Module 8 Investing in stocks Prepared by Pamela Peterson Drake, Ph.D., CFA 1. Overview When an investor buys a WARREN BUFFETT ON INTRINSIC VALUE share of common stock, it is reasonable to expect From the 1994 annual report to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway1 that what an investor is willing to pay for the “We define intrinsic value as the discounted value of the cash that can share reflects what he be taken out of a business during its remaining life. Anyone calculating intrinsic value necessarily comes up with a highly subjective figure that expects to receive from it. will change both as estimates of future cash flows are revised and as What he expects to interest rates move. Despite its fuzziness, however, intrinsic value is receive are future cash all-important and is the only logical way to evaluate the relative flows in the form of attractiveness of investments and businesses. dividends and the value … of the stock when it is To see how historical input (book value) and future output (intrinsic value) can diverge, let's look at another form of investment, a college sold. education. Think of the education's cost as its "book value." If it is to be accurate, the cost should include the earnings that were foregone by The value of a share of the student because he chose college rather than a job. stock should be equal to the present value of all For this exercise, we will ignore the important non-economic benefits the future cash flows you of an education and focus strictly on its economic value. -
Vectorvest Stop Criteria
2017, Copyright VectorVest, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the publisher and the copyright holder, VectorVest, Inc. Special Notice VectorVest, Inc. will do everything it can to insure the safety of your personal possessions while you are attending the Seminar. If you would like us to watch your computer during lunch, please take it to our registration table, where you will receive a claim check for it. In any event, we cannot assume any responsibility for lost or missing personal property. VectorVest Product Description VectorVest 7 – VectorVest 7 comes in three formats, End of Day, IntraDay and RealTime for U.S. and Canadian markets. Additional End-of-Day markets include: Australia, Europe, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Africa, and United Kingdom. VectorVest 7 analyzes, sorts, ranks and graphs thousands of stocks using an advanced, user-friendly platform that is highly customizable. VectorVest 7 provides Buy, Sell and Hold recommendations on every stock, every day and a complete analysis using more than 40 technical and fundamental indicators. Most importantly it gives you market timing updates for precise trading entry and exit points so you can consistently buy low and sell high. The program may be installed on multiple computers for convenience. VectorVest RealTime Derby – The VectorVest 7 Derby works with VectorVest RealTime to offer a revolutionary, new approach to real-time trading. It runs over a hundred and eighty strategies simultaneously to immediately identify the best performing strategies at any given moment of the day. -
Trading System Development David Francis Zielinski Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Worcester Polytechnic Institute Digital WPI Interactive Qualifying Projects (All Years) Interactive Qualifying Projects June 2017 Trading System Development David Francis Zielinski Worcester Polytechnic Institute Muhaimin Islam Worcester Polytechnic Institute Obianuli Ebubechukwu Obiora Worcester Polytechnic Institute Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/iqp-all Repository Citation Zielinski, D. F., Islam, M., & Obiora, O. E. (2017). Trading System Development. Retrieved from https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/iqp- all/1892 This Unrestricted is brought to you for free and open access by the Interactive Qualifying Projects at Digital WPI. It has been accepted for inclusion in Interactive Qualifying Projects (All Years) by an authorized administrator of Digital WPI. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Trading System Development An Interactive Qualifying Project Submitted to the Faculty Of In Partial Fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Science By: David Zielinski Obi Obiora Muhaiman Islam Submitted to: Professors Michael Radzicki Fred Hutson 1 Abstract: 4 Chapter 1: 5 Introduction 5 Chapter 2: 7 Trading and Investing 7 Pros and Cons 8 Day Trading Pros and Cons 9 Swing Trading Pros and Cons 11 Pros 11 Cycle and Trend 12 Four Asset Classes and Inter Market Analysis 14 Equities: 14 Currencies: 15 Commodities: 15 Intermarket Analysis: 17 How Businesses Respond to the Business Cycle 18 Advantages and Disadvantages 19 Taxing Asset Classes: 20 Account Requirements and Position -
A Model of Monetary Exchange in Over-The-Counter Markets∗
A Model of Monetary Exchange in Over-the-Counter Markets∗ Ricardo Lagos Shengxing Zhang New York University New York University May 2014 Abstract We develop a model of monetary exchange in over-the-counter markets to study the effects of monetary policy on asset prices and standard measures of financial liquidity, such as bid-ask spreads, trade volume, and the incentives of dealers to supply immediacy, both by participating in the market-making activity and by holding asset inventories on their own account. The theory predicts that asset prices carry a speculative premium that reflects the asset's marketability and depends on monetary policy as well as the market microstructure where it is traded. These liquidity considerations imply a positive correlation between the real yield on stocks and the nominal yield on Treasury bonds|an empirical observation long regarded anomalous. The theory also exhibits rational expectations equilibria with recurring belief driven events that resemble liquidity crises, i.e., times of sharp persistent declines in asset prices, trade volume, and dealer participation in market-making activity, accompanied by large increases in spreads and abnormally long trading delays. Keywords: Money; Liquidity; OTC markets; Asset prices; Fed model; Financial crises JEL classification: D83, E31, E52, G12 ∗We thank the support from the C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics at NYU. 1 Introduction We develop a model of monetary exchange in financial over-the-counter (OTC) markets and use it to study some elementary questions in financial and monetary economics. Specifically, we consider a setting in which a financial asset that yields a dividend flow of consumption goods (e.g., an equity or a real bond) is traded by investors who have time-varying heterogeneous valuations for the dividend. -
Types of Order That Are Being Placed by Trading Members on Behalf of Investors
Delhi College Of Arts and Commerce University of Delhi Subject- INVESTING IN STOCK MARKET ( E- Resources) Course- BCom (Prog) Sem IV-C DATE – 23rd April 2020 Unit 1- Investing fundamentals Topic done already- Meaning of investing Nature of investing Difference between Investment and Speculation Process of investment Risk and return in context of financial investment Concept of risk return trade off in investment Concepts of IPO and FPO and difference between them Equity and bonds Types of debentures (Part A and B) Meaning, functions and Categories of financial market Segments of capital market- Primary Market and Secondary Market Market participants in Primary Market Market participants in Secondary Market BSE and NSE Sources of financial information Stock exchange- Meaning and Functions Security market indices and MCX Topic for today- Buying and selling of stocks using brokerage and analysts’ recommendations and types of orders in securities market. Refer this topic from the book Investing in stock markets by Dr. RS Bharadwaj, Page no. 47-49. Types of order that are being placed by trading members on behalf of investors What is a Trade Order? Placing a trade order seems intuitive – a “buy” button to initiate a trade and a “sell” button to close a trade. Although executing trades is possible in such a way, it is very inefficient as it requires constant monitoring of the stock. Using just the buy and sell buttons can result in slippage. This is the difference between the price expected and the price at which the order is actually filled. When trading stocks that are highly volatile or trading in a fast- moving market, slippage can be the difference-maker between a winning and losing position. -
Inflation and the Stock Market: Understanding the “Fed Model”∗
Inflation and the Stock Market: Understanding the “Fed Model”∗ Geert Bekaert† Columbia University and NBER Eric Engstrom‡ Federal Reserve Board of Governors This Draft: September 2008 JEL Classifications G12, G15, E44 Keyphrases Money illusion, Equity premium, Countercyclical risk aversion, Fed model, Inflation, Economic Uncertainty Dividend yield, Stock-Bond Correlation, Bond Yield Abstract: The so-called Fed model postulates that the dividend or earnings yield on stocks should equal the yield on nominal Treasury bonds, or at least that the two should be highly correlated. In US data there is indeed a strikingly high time series correlation between the yield on nominal bonds and the dividend yield on equities. This positive correlation is often attributed to the fact that both bond and equity yields comove strongly and positively with expected inflation. While inflation comoves with nominal bond yields for well-known reasons, the positive correlation between expected inflation and equity yields has long puzzled economists. We show that the effect is consistent with modern asset pricing theory incorporating uncertainty about real growth prospects and also habit-based risk aversion. In the US, high expected inflation has tended to coincide with periods of heightened uncertainty about real economic growth and unusually high risk aversion, both of which rationally raise equity yields. Our findings suggest that countries with a high incidence of stagflationshouldhaverelatively high correlations between bond yields and equity yields and we confirm that this is true in a panel of international data. ∗This work does not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve System or its staff. In particular, our use of the term "Fed Model" reflects only conventional parlance among finance practicioners for this common valuation model.