i

The 6th Annual Scientific Meeting on Disaster Research 2019 International Conference on Disaster Management PROCEEDING BOOK VOL. 3

Social and Technological Innovation on Disaster for Industry 4.0

Indonesia Defense University, 18 – 19 June 2019

ii

Hak Cipta dilindungi undang-undang Dilarang memperbanyak atau memindahkan sebagian atau seluruh isi buku ini dalam bentuk apa pun, baik secara elektronis maupun mekanis, termasuk memfotokopi, merekam atau dengan system penyimpanan lainnya, tanpa izin tertulis dari penerbit.

iii

PROCEEDING BOOK VOL. 3

Penanggung Jawab : Dr. Tri Legionosuko, S.IP., M.AP Ketua : Dr. M. Adnan Madjid, SH., M.Hum Wakil Ketua I : Drs. Wibisono Poespitohadi, M.Sc., M.Si (Han) Wakil Ketua II : Agus Winarna, S.I.P., M.Si., M.Tr (Han) Sekretaris : Dony Rizal Lubis, S.IP Bendahara : Rahman, S.Pd., M.Sc Ketua Organizing Committee : Dr. Bambang Wahyudi, M.Si Ketua Steering Committee : Dr. Edi Suhardono, S.E., M.A.P Editor : Dr. IDK Kertawidana, S.KM., M.KKK Reviewer : Prof. Syamsul Maarif, M.Si Prof. Dr. Sobar Sutisna, M.Surv.Sc Dr. Siswo Hadi Sumantri, ST., M.MT Dr. Arief Budiarto, DESS Dr. Dr. Anwar Kurniadi, S,KP., M.Kep Dr. Fauzi Bahar, M.Si Lasmono, M.Si Dr. Sri Sundari, SE., MM Ilustrator : Dindin, SE Wilopo. SE., MM., M.Han

Cetakan Pertama Volume 3, Agustus 2019 Prodi Manajemen Bencana, Fakultas Keamanan Nasional Universitas Pertahanan © UNHAN Press ISBN : 978-602-5808-45-6 Ilus : 378 hlm + x hlm; 21 x 29 cm www.icdm.or.id [email protected]

Kawasan IPSC, Sentul, Sukahati, Citeureup, Bogor, Jawa Barat, , 16810. Telp/Fax: +62 21 296187

iv

THE 6TH ANNUAL SCIENTIFIC MEETING ON DISASTER RESEARCH 2019

Study on Integrating Flood Risk Management into Spatial Planning in Pasarminggu Subdistrict, DKI Province

Citra Ridhani1 and Deffi Ayu Puspitosari2 1Disaster Management, Indonesia Defense University, Bogor, Indonesia 2Disaster Management, Indonesia Defense University, Bogor, Indonesia

E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract. Cities are most vulnerable to climate-related disaster, therefore it is necessary to support the integration of disaster risk reduction into development planning (RTRW). Based on BPBD data in 2018, Pasarminggu Subdistrict had experienced severe flooding that was caused by the overflow of River. The floods had occurred four times since March to May 2018 with the water level ranging from 10-50 centimeters. Pasarminggu Subdistrict has a percentage of built-up area (83,63%) that exceeds the ideal allocation (70%) referring to Law No. 26 of 2007. This research aim to map the hazard risk area and to estimate number of building affected and economic loss damage to facilities due to flood. This research uses quantitative approach using overlay GIS techniques. The results presented in this research suggest the implementation of disaster mitigation based-spatial planning is still low, proven by 81.96% of potential flood inundation area were found in area designated for built-up area with the estimation number of building affected of 8.169 units.

1. Introductions The risk of natural disasters and climate change present a real challenge facing global society over the past decades. Projections show that 20% of land on earth experiences climate change caused by the quick pace of shifting climate zone [1]. Climate change has resulted changes in rainfall patterns, global sea level rise that lead to increase the frequency of hydro-meteorological hazards such as floods and droughts [2][3]. Indonesia Disaster Information Data (DIBI) in 2013-2017 shows that Jakarta Province has three potential disasters (e.g. floods, landslides and tornadoes), where flood has the highest frequency of occurrences. However, heavy rainfall is not the only factor that caused the floods, other factors that can contribute to Province include: geographical condition, changes in rainfall related to El Nino and La Nina, settlements along the river banks, poor drainage system and high demand for land that encourages settlements development in hazard-prone areas such as floodplains and unstable slopes [4][5]. Various efforts have been made by the government to overcome flooding. Yet, disaster risk reduction efforts in Jakarta Province are dominated by structural mitigation, i.e. construction of flood canal, sea dikes, river normalization etc [6]. In order to protect current development process, the government is deemed necessary to intervene in development policies, especially the spatial planning (RTRW). This is supported by the statement from the Ministry of Agrarian Affairs and Spatial Planning that integration of disaster risk reduction into spatial planning is very essential for achieving

285

THE 6TH ANNUAL SCIENTIFIC MEETING ON DISASTER RESEARCH 2019

balanced development by restricting or limiting development in vulnerable areas and mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into critical infrastructure development [7]. Jakarta spatial plan (RTRW) has been legalized into the Regional Regulation (Perda) No. 1 of 2012. The regulation provides an opportunity for the government to revise the spatial planning every five years. The spatial planning consists of two aspects: spatial pattern and structure planning, which include the arrangement of settlement, network of infrastructure and facilities, and land-use distribution. In its implementation, RTRW needs to refer to Law No. 26 of 2007 concerning Spatial Planning and the Regulation of the Minister of Public Works and Housing No. 28 of 2015 concerning Determination of Riparian Zone for River and Lake. It is because riparian zones and disaster-prone areas, in context of spatial planning, are categorized into protected areas. According to Department of Water Resources of Jakarta Province, has the highest number of flood points compared to the other administrative cities. The number of areas affected by flood in South Jakarta is 42 villages and 104 RWs (community group). Mampang Prapatan and Pasarminggu Subdistrict have the highest number of affected RW area, but among 10 subdistricts of South Jakarta, only four subdistricts including Pasarminggu that are passed by Ciliwung River. Based on BPBD data in 2018, Pasarminggu Subdistrict had experienced severe flooding that was caused by the overflow of Ciliwung River. The flood risk in Pasarminggu Subdistrict is increasing mainly as a result of growing exposure of people and assets to natural hazards where in this context the percentage of built-up areathat exceeds the ideal allocation. The existence of three major rivers (Krukut River, Kali Baru Barat and Ciliwung River) makes flooding in Pasarminggu Subdistrict inevitable.

2. Research Methods This research uses quantitative approach using overlay GIS techniques to map the potential flood inundation area and to calculate the number of potential buildings and economic loss damage to facilities. In detail, the hazard risk mapping is carried out through two approaches, i.e. potential flood inundation areas and land-use changes and harmonization towards spatial pattern planning. Meanwhile, vulnerability in this research is assumed with the estimation of number of buildings affected and the economic loss damage to facilities. More practical research designs explained on the figure below:

Figure 1. Flood risk mapping design.

286

THE 6TH ANNUAL SCIENTIFIC MEETING ON DISASTER RESEARCH 2019

3. Result and Discussion Current trends of rapid urban growth and ensuing environmental degradation increase people's vulnerability to disasters [8]. The agglomeration of development and the need to achieve Regional Original Income (PAD) targets have caused changes in spatial patterns and land-use in Jakarta Province becoming unavoidable. On the other hand, environmental problems are challenges that need to be addressed amidst ongoing dynamics and development competition. In other words, the desire to make Jakarta Province a world class urban area needs to be balanced with a response to environment condition which tends to show a decline in quality (degradation). According to BPBD data, Pasarminggu is one of South Jakarta subdistricts that often experience flooding due to the overflow of rivers. Between February and March 2018, Ciliwung River floods had occurred seven times with the water level ranging from 30 to 200 cm (February) and 10 to 50 cm (March). The frequency of flood also tends to increase and the peak appears to be shifted, where in 2013 a peak period occurred on April and in 2014 to 2017 occurred in between November to December.

Tabel 1. Flood events in Pasarminggu Subdistrict between 2013-2018 according to BPBD data

Year Month Frequency Water level (cm) Village Source 2018 Maret 2 10 s.d. 50 Pejaten Timur Ciliwung River Februari 5 30 s.d. 200 Pejaten Timur Ciliwung River 2017 Desember 4 5 s.d. 50 Jati Padang Pulo River (Branch of Kali Baru Barat) 2016 November 2 50 s.d. 100 Pejaten Timur Ciliwung River 1 10 s.d. 60 Cilandak Timur Krukut River 2015 Desember 1 20 s.d. 50 Pejaten Timur Ciliwung River 2014 Desember 1 10 s.d. 60 Pejaten Timur Ciliwung River 2013 April 1 0 s.d. 95 Jati Padang Pulo River (Branch of Kali Baru Barat)

3.1. Hazard mapping Potential flood inundation mapping analysis on this research is based on a set of historical flood data. The historical data used as reference were major flood events in 2002 and 2007. These flood events were the worst that has been occurred in Jakarta Province after 1996. The flood that occurred due to high rainfall and water shipments from 13 rivers that crossed Jakarta Province killed dozens. In 2002 and 2007, rainfall reached an average of 2,288.9 mm and caused inundation in several places until the water level exceeds 3 meters. In 2007, due to three days heavy rain, Ciliwung River water level in downstream was estimated to reach 10.5 meters, where the level under normal conditions was only 7- 7.5 meters [9].

Figure 2. Total area (square meter) of village affected by flooding in Pasarminggu Subdistrict.

287

THE 6TH ANNUAL SCIENTIFIC MEETING ON DISASTER RESEARCH 2019

The potential flood inundation area in Pasarminggu Subdistrict was found 17.04% of total area or estimated 3,695,474 sqm where Pejaten Timur and Cilandak Timur Village have the largest proportion. The result of overlay between spatial pattern plan and potential flood inundation areas indicates that 81.96% of the potential area are located in the middle of the defined built-up area, consists of 41.40% unarranged or informal settlements, 1.75% commercial, and 17.20% green open space. This statistics shows that the spatial information of flood-prone areas has not yet been considered in spatial pattern planning.

Figure 3. Potential flood inundation in spatial pattern plan.

Furthermore, based on the overlay between existing land-use and the flood-prone areas, the largest potential flood inundation area is found in unarranged settlement (46.84%), followed by clustered settlement (21.98%) and offices/trade/services (8.94%). Non-built-up area in Pasarminggu Subdistrict which consists of open space, vacant land, dry land agriculture, fisheries and funerals with a total area of 404,143 sqm, only 12.16% are located in the flood-prone area whilst 17,31% (3,004,676 sqm) of built-up area are prone to flood. Disaster risk is an indicator of poor development and can be reduced by either strengthening resilience (addressing existing risks) or by avoiding the creation of new risk. Disaster prone areas are physically vulnerable to natural hazards therefore need to be restricted from development activities. Law No. 26 of 2007 mandates spatial planning is expected to be able to realize three things include: being effective and efficient and able to support sustainable environmental management, not waste of space and not cause a decrease of quality of land. The existence of potential flood inundation area in spatial pattern plan for built-up area indicates that the current spatial pattern plan still does not meet the criteria for sustainability aspect, where disaster risk reduction is not part of development policy and planning.

3.2. Land-use harmonization and land-use change mapping The conversion of land-use function was very closely related to economic and political driven factors. Economic factors refer to poverty or economic pressure that forces people to live in unsafe locations, while political factors refer to development policies that determine the function of spatial patterns, including the issuance of permits for land acquisition for business. Based on analysis, the biggest conversion of land-use is unarranged settlement into clustered settlement and offices/trade/services. This social phenomenon indicates that land-use conversion is based on political factors. Before the community is motivated to sell their houses to developer or business people due to high offer of prices, it means a consensus has been made beforehand between

288

THE 6TH ANNUAL SCIENTIFIC MEETING ON DISASTER RESEARCH 2019

authorized representative and business people. Conversion of unarranged settlements into clustered settlement, basically does not violate the carrying capacity, where the land that are suitable for settlement can be utilized for various types of settlement or housing.

Figure 3. Existing land-use harmonization with spatial pattern plans.

Land-use change and harmonization mapping analysis aim to assess whether there is the possibility of inconsistency in the implementation of existing land-use towards spatial pattern planning and to identify the conversion trends. The result shows the conversion rate of land-use before RTRW being implemented (2008) to current situation (2018) was 55.07%. Non-built-up area had been converted around 11.54%, where the conversion into built-up area was 39.62%. Built-up area shows decrease by 4.70% between 2008 and 2018. Based on land-use harmonization mapping, around 46.13% of existing land-use in Pasarminggu Subdistrict is in accordance with the spatial pattern plan. The highest percentage of harmonization is residential area, while the lowest is industrial and commercial. The industrial and commercial land-use is currently being utilized in diverse ways including educational facilities, settlement, offices/trade/ services, warehouse, and open space. Land-use harmonization mapping analysis also results 57.32% of existing green open space is in accordance with the spatial pattern planning. On the other hand, the highest percentage of disharmonization was found in unarranged settlement and offices/trade/services.

3.3. Damage and loss estimation The spatial data used to calculate the estimation of number of building affected by floods in research area include: high resolution imagery (CSRT) of Pasarminggu Subdistrict, administrative boundaries, existing land-use and potential flood inundation area map. CSRT is spatial data that records objects found on the the earth surface at a spatial resolution of 0.5 meters. The imagery used to obtain a picture of the situation in Pasarminggu Subdistrict consisted of 13 grids include: 4235 B-D, 4236 A, C-D, 4238 A-C, and 4239 A-D (figure 4). The appearance of buildings, roads, vegetation coverage, water body etc. can be interpreted more accurately and looks quite clear at a certain scale. The highest number of buildings affected by floods is found in unarranged settlement with an estimated number of buildings of 6,745 units, followed by clustered settlement with 1,388 units and offices (trade, services and warehouses) totaling 224 units. Unarranged settlement occupies dangerous area because it is located on the riparian zone.

289

THE 6TH ANNUAL SCIENTIFIC MEETING ON DISASTER RESEARCH 2019

4238 4239

4235 4236

Figure 4. Pasarminggu Subdistrict on satellite imagery.

The estimated number of building affected by floods, furthermore, used to calculate estimated economic loss damage to facilities (buildings). The estimation of economic loss damage to facilities follows the value of damage facilities guidelines from Bappenas (table 2).

Table 2. The estimation of economic loss damage to facilities in Pasarminggu Subdistrict

No Facilities Unit cost (million rupiahs) Unit Cost estimation (million rupiahs) Low Heavy Total Minimum Maximun damage damage damage 1. Settlement 5 10 15 8.133 40.665 121.995 2. Environmental 0,75 1,5 2,25 16 12 36 infrastucture 3. Health: 1 10 500 Hospital 60 300 500 Puskesmas 20 50 150 Polindes 15 30 105 Puskesmas Pembantu 10 25 80 4. Education: 5 40 50.000 SMA atau MAN 63 320 1.250 SMP atau MTs 43 220 850 SD atau MI 25 200 500 TK 8 100 150 5. Worship 75 200 375 4 300 1.500 6. Office/trade/service 200 600 1.000 224 44.800 224.000 7. Governmental 250 1.000 1.400 89 22.250 124.600 Economic Loss 108.077 522.631

From the calculation as shown in table 2, the estimation of economic damage to facilities is ranging between IDR 108,077,000,000.00 to IDR 522,631,000,000.00. The economic damage in Pasarminggu Subdistrict is equivalent to 0.24% - 1.17% of Regional Original Income based on Jakarta Provincial Budget of 2018.

4. Conclusion Spatial planning is regarded as one important instrument for disaster risk reduction, especially in rapidly urbanizing city such as Jakarta Province. Integrating disaster risk reduction into spatial planning can synergize current structural and non-structural mitigation efforts to function more

290

THE 6TH ANNUAL SCIENTIFIC MEETING ON DISASTER RESEARCH 2019

optimally in order to reduce the flood risk in Pasarminggu Subdistrict. Spatial planning is critical in building resilience. By managing development dynamics in cities, spatial planning can promote sustainability and protect current development process from future losses. Jakarta Province spatial planning and detailed spatial planning need to be consistent and mutually supportive. The spatial plans also need to be aligned with national policies and regulations in order to capitalize on synergies.

Acknowledgement We thank Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho (Indonesia National Board for Disaster Management) for assistance in constructing the conceptual framework. We thank Dr. IDK Kerta Widana (Indonesia Defense University) for extensive supports. This work was supported by Disaster Management Study Program, Faculty of National Security, Indonesian Defense University.

References [1] Irina M John S D 2013 Pace of shifts in climate regions increases with global temperature Journal of Nature Climate Change 3 no. 8 pp 739 [2] Zbigniew W K 2013 Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives Journal of Hydrological Sciences vol. 58 no. 1 pp 2 [3] Rajib S 2006 Community-based climate change adaptation in Vietnam: inter-linkages of environment, disaster, and human security multiple dimension of global environment changes TERI Publication pp 1 [4] Badan Penanggulangan Bencana Daerah Provinsi DKI Jakarta 2010 Mengapa Jakarta banjir? pengendalian banjir pemerintah Provinsi DKI Jakarta (Jakarta: PT. Mirah Sakethi) [5] International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction 2016 Cities at risk: making cities safer before disaster strikes (United States: United Nations) [6] Feirully I 2013 Grey solutions for urban water management: Jakarta case C40 Workshop on Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Assessment [7] Badan Pertanahan Nasional 2016 Mitigasi Bencana Berbasis Penataan Ruang www.bpn.go.id Juli 3, 2018 [8] International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction 1996 Cities At Risk: Making Cities Safer Before Disaster Strikes (United States: United Nations) [9] BAPPEDA Provinsi DKI Jakarta 2012 Naskah Akademis RTRW Provinsi DKI Jakarta 2030 (Jakarta: Bappeda Provinsi DKI Jakarta)

291