DOCSLIB.ORG

Finding Gold in “Leprechaun Economics” an Analysis of Ireland’S Recent Macroeconomic Growth and Subsequent Market Responses

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Finding Gold in “Leprechaun Economics” an Analysis of Ireland’S Recent Macroeconomic Growth and Subsequent Market Responses Finding Gold in “Leprechaun Economics” An analysis of Ireland’s recent macroeconomic growth and subsequent market responses Daniel Tierney, M.B.A Candidate Independent Study Project Sloan School of Management Faculty Advisor: Professor Christopher Noe Massachusetts Institute of Technology Spring 2017 [email protected] Agenda • Executive Summary 2 • Project Summary – Design 3 – Findings 4 – Prologue 5 • Background – Ireland: 1845 to 2015 6 – The Mechanics of National Accounting 12 • Analysis – 2015 Gross Domestic Product 16 – Factors Analysis 23 – Market Response ▪ Variable Selection & Hypotheses 30 ▪ Results 35 • Sources 39 • Appendices 59 • Acknowledgements 103 “Finding Gold in ‘Leprechaun Economics’” 1 Daniel Tierney, 2017 M.B.A. Candidate Executive Summary • On July 12, 2016, the Irish Central Statistics Office (“CSO”) announced that Ireland’s GDP grew by 26.3% in 2015 • That same day, Nobel Laureate and MIT alumnus Paul Krugman bemoaned the report as “leprechaun economics” • This project concludes that: • 2015 GDP growth was likely caused by the transfer of €300bn of capital assets to Ireland, Photo Credit: Irishcentral.com • those assets seemingly responsible included intellectual property and patents owned by the pharmaceutical company, Allergan, and the computer manufacturer, Apple, and • investors appeared to ignore the GDP news in 2015–just as they had in prior years Source: Twitter.com “Finding Gold in ‘Leprechaun Economics’” 2 Daniel Tierney, 2017 M.B.A. Candidate Project Design Research Questions Primary Data Sources • What caused Ireland’s GDP to • CSO, Eurostat, Organisation for grow 26.3% in 2015? Economic Cooperation and GDP Deconstruction • Is this figure accurate? Development (“OECD”), The • Could the CSO have issued a World Bank ‘pro forma’ GDP? • What particular industries or • CSO, corporate filings (10-Ks, entities (if known) were annual returns, etc.), Eurostat Factors Analysis responsible for this growth? • Was this growth due to one-time or recurring events? • How should market response be • Bloomberg (specifically Irish, measured? English, and German Market Response • Historically and in 2015, how government bonds; the Irish did markets react to expected Stock Exchange; the London and announced GDP figures? Stock Exchange; and MSCI Inc.), research papers “Finding Gold in ‘Leprechaun Economics’” 3 Daniel Tierney, 2017 M.B.A. Candidate Project Findings Research Answers • Ireland must produce data according to European System Accounts (“ESA”) 2010, creating opportunities for GDP to be influenced by foreign firms GDP Deconstruction • Irish 2015 GDP growth was due to asset transfers by multinational entities (“MNEs”), increasing profits, depreciation, investment, exports, and imports • An in-depth analysis is impaired, as much of the data is redacted • The one-time on-shoring of intellectual patent product (“IPP”) by technology and pharmaceutical firms, such as Apple and Allergan, likely caused Ireland’s Factors Analysis 2015 GDP growth • While corporate inversions and airline leasing firms were credited for increasing Irish GDP, their impact may have been exaggerated • 2015 GDP growth will be assessed via the paradigm that bond yields respond to ‘surprises’ and quarterly data stimulates equity return volatility Market Response • Not only did investors disregard the 2015 GDP growth, but they seemed to ignore national accounts news from the CSO over the past 15 years “Finding Gold in ‘Leprechaun Economics’” 4 Daniel Tierney, 2017 M.B.A. Candidate Project Prologue: GNI* • In February 2017, an expert panel convened by the CSO, the Economic Statistics Review Group (“ESRG”), suggested the use of Gross National Income* (“GNI*”) to “provide a better understanding of the domestic components of highly globalised Irish economy” • Using the markets’ seemingly entrenched disregard of GDP ‘surprise’ as a baseline, it would be useful for policy makers to examine investors’ reactions to the upcoming release of GNI* • If investors believe this new metric is meaningful, they will respond accordingly Source: Ireland CSO ESRG response presentation “Finding Gold in ‘Leprechaun Economics’” 5 Daniel Tierney, 2017 M.B.A. Candidate Ireland: 1840 to 2015 “Finding Gold in ‘Leprechaun Economics’” 6 Daniel Tierney, 2017 M.B.A. Candidate Ireland’s Great Famine led to crippling population loss and a century of rural poverty • Pictured top left: The Rock County, Wisconsin farm home of Nicholas and Mamie Tierney in the early 20th century (Source: D. Tierney) • Pictured right: Irish girls gathering turf in 1963 (Source: National Library of Ireland) • Pictured bottom left: Famine walls still trace the landscape of modern Ireland (Source: D. Tierney) 1845-1852: 1922: Irish 1937: Republic 1969-1998: 1995-2005: 2008-2013: Great Famine Free State of Ireland The Troubles Celtic Tiger Great Recession 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 “Finding Gold in ‘Leprechaun Economics’” 7 Daniel Tierney, 2017 M.B.A. Candidate The ‘Celtic Tiger’ years coincided with increased FDI and a departure from an agrarian economy Foreign Direct Investment (% of GDP) Agriculture (% of GDP) vs. High tech exports ($bn) Data Sources: OECD, World Bank Data Sources: United Nations, World Bank 40% 7% $40 35% 6% $35 30% $30 25% 5% $25 20% 4% 15% $20 3% 10% $15 5% 2% $10 0% 1% $5 -5% -10% 0% $0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 UK Ireland Ireland Corporate Tax Rate Agriculture (GDP %) High tech exports ($bn, in 2015 dollars) “Finding Gold in ‘Leprechaun Economics’” 8 Daniel Tierney, 2017 M.B.A. Candidate The global financial crisis led to over three-fold increases in Ireland’s debt and unemployment 2005 to 2008 2009 to 2015 Debt & Surplus or Deficit % of GDP at Q4 Data Source: Ireland CSO • Ireland’s gross • By 2015, Irish 120% 10% national debt household debt 100% 0% averaged had returned 80% -10% Debt & Surplus ~€45bn from to 2006 levels; 60% -20% or Deficit 2005 to 2007, still, as of 40% -30% before nearly 2015, it was 20% -40% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 doubling to among the EU’s Surplus (Deficit) Debt €80bn in 2007 highest • Jobs were • Unemployment Unemployment plentiful, with among Irish Data Source: Ireland CSO 12.9% 12.9% foreign firms youth rose even 12.0% 11.6% seeking to higher than that 10.1% 10.0% Unemployment 8.3% employ Ireland’s among older 5.2% educated, citizens, 3.6% 3.7% 3.8% English-speaking growing to workforce 33% in 2012 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 “Finding Gold in ‘Leprechaun Economics’” 9 Daniel Tierney, 2017 M.B.A. Candidate Furthermore, collapsing residential property values preceded bank bailouts and austerity measures 2005 to 2008 2009 to 2015 Residential Property Price Index Data Source: Ireland CSO • By 2007, the • Though prices 135 20% housing bubble were rebounding 115 10% 95 0% Residential had begun to by 2014, new Property Price burst, as Dublin investment in 75 -10% Values real estate lost Dublin’s south 55 -20% value before side reignited 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 other, more rural pre-recession YoY % Change Properties outside Dublin Dublin properties properties concerns January 2005 = 100 Number of Approved New House Loans • To meet home • The Irish Data Source: Ireland Dept. of the Env., Community & Local Gov’t loan demand, government’s 80,000 100% banks’ foreign guarantee of the 60,000 50% Home Loans borrowing hit six largest banks’ 40,000 0% €110bn in debts ultimately 20,000 -50% 2008, a ~633% prompted a 0 -100% increase over the Troika-backed 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 prior four years bailout YoY % Change New House Loans “Finding Gold in ‘Leprechaun Economics’” 10 Daniel Tierney, 2017 M.B.A. Candidate Outrage was directed at public officials; ousted Fianna Fáil had dominated Irish politics since 1932 Dáil Éireann election results by political party Data Source: ElectionsIreland.org, author calculations Controlling Party 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Coalitions 1989 Fianna Fáil-PD 1992 Fianna Fáil-Labour 1997 Fianna Fáil-PD 2002 Fianna Fáil-PD 2007 46% 31% Fianna Fáil-PD-Green 2011 12% 46% Fine Gael-Labour 2016 28% 31% Fine Gael-Independent Sinn Féin Labour Party Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Others Independent With recession effects lingering, Ireland had achieved moderate political stability and economic growth by 2015 “Finding Gold in ‘Leprechaun Economics’” 11 Daniel Tierney, 2017 M.B.A. Candidate The Mechanics of National Accounting “Finding Gold in ‘Leprechaun Economics’” 12 Daniel Tierney, 2017 M.B.A. Candidate The Eurostat publication, ESA 2010, provides the framework used for EU members’ national accounts Definition Section 8.89(c): “GDP is the sum of uses in the total economy generation of income account Income (compensation of employees, taxes on production Approach and imports less subsidies, gross operating surplus and mixed income of the total economy).” Section 8.89(a): “GDP is the sum of gross value Production added of the various institutional sectors or the (Output) various industries plus taxes and less subsidies on Approach products (which are not allocated to sectors and industries).” Section 8.89(b): “GDP is the sum of final uses of Expenditure goods and services by resident institutional units Approach (final consumption and gross capital formation), plus exports and minus imports of goods and services.” “Finding Gold in ‘Leprechaun Economics’” 13 Daniel Tierney, 2017 M.B.A. Candidate Ireland
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Economic Dialogue with Ireland
    IPOL DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR INTERNAL POLICIES EGOV ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE SUPPORT UNIT IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS Economic Dialogue with Ireland ECON on 08 November 2016 This note presents selected information on the current status of the EU economic governance procedures and related relevant information in view of an Economic Dialogue with Michael Noonan, Ireland’s Minister for Finance, in the competent committee of the European Parliament. The invitation for a dialogue is in accordance with the EU economic governance framework, in particular Article 2a of EU Regulation 1467 as amended by Regulation 1177/2011 and Article 7(10) of EU Regulation 472/2013. Summary In the context of the post-programme surveillance and monitoring, both the European Commission (COM) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) notes that Ireland’s economic adjustment has been remarkable and outline positive developments, such as the strong economic rebound and improving public finances, while the challenge for the future is to achieve continued balanced growth in an environment of increased uncertainty, including that created by the result of the United Kingdom (UK) referendum on EU membership. Ireland successfully corrected its excessive deficit in 2015 and exited the EDP on 17 June 2016. It submitted its 2017 draft budgetary plan in October 2016; the latter will be assessed by the COM in November on the basis of the upcoming autumn forecast. The GDP figures have been revised significantly upwards in July 2016 (together with other relevant economic indicators): this reduces indicators expressed as a share of GDP and will be reflected in the upcoming COM autumn forecast. Finally, as regards the banking sector, progress can be noticed in the form of a declining non- performing loan (NPLs) ratio, but the current rate is still nearly three times that of the EU average and the Irish banking sector sees a reduction in the level of loan loss provisions.
    [Show full text]
  • Structural Change in Times of Increasing Openness
    MARCH 2018 Working Paper 143 Structural Change in Times of Increasing Openness: Assessing Path Dependency in European Economic Integration Claudius Gräbner, Philipp Heimberger, Jakob Kapeller, Bernhard Schütz The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche Structural Change in Times of Increasing Openness: Assessing Path Dependency in European Economic Integration CLAUDIUS GRÄBNER PHILIPP HEIMBERGER JAKOB KAPELLER BERNHARD SCHÜTZ Claudius Gräbner is Research Associate at the Institute for the Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy (ICAE), Johannes Kepler University (JKU) Linz, Austria. Philipp Heimberger is Research Economist at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) and Research Associate at ICAE, JKU Linz. Jakob Kapeller is head of the ICAE and Assistant Professor at the Department of Economics, JKU Linz. Bernhard Schütz is Research Associate at ICAE and Assistant Professor at the Department of Economics, JKU Linz. Research for this paper was financed by the Anniversary Fund of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Project No. 17383) coordinated by the Institute for the Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy (ICAE) at the Johannes Kepler University (JKU), Linz. Financial support provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank for this research is gratefully acknowledged. Abstract This paper analyzes the dynamics of structural polarization and macroeconomic convergence vs. divergence in the context of European integration, where the latter is understood primarily as an increase in economic and financial openness. In the process of estimating the dynamic effects of openness shocks on 26 EU countries, we develop a taxonomy of European economies that consists of core, periphery, financialized and Eastern European catch-up economies. As these four country groups have responded in a distinct way to the openness shocks imposed by European integration, we argue that the latter should be seen as an evolutionary process that has given rise to different path-dependent developmental trajectories.
    [Show full text]
  • The University of Chicago from the Elites to The
    THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO FROM THE ELITES TO THE STREETS: THE PSYCHOLOGY OF DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC INEQUALITY A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF THE DIVISION OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCES IN CANDIDACY FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY DEPARTMENT OF COMPARATIVE HUMAN DEVELOPMENT BY SÉAMUS ANTHONY POWER CHICAGO, ILLINOIS AUGUST 2017 Table of Contents Acknowledgments iii List of Tables vi List of Figures vii Introduction 1 Chapter 1: Economic Inequality and Democracy 11 Chapter 2: Culture, Economics, and Psychology 45 Chapter 3: The 2008 global financial crisis and the Irish economy 86 Chapter 4: The Elites and the Unemployed 108 Chapter 5: Quantitative tests of qualitatively derived hypotheses 133 Chapter 6: How the perception of unfair economic inequality leads to civic unrest 162 Chapter 7: Conclusion 196 Appendix I: You reap what you sow condition 228 Appendix II: External factors condition 230 References 232 ii Acknowledgements I would like to thank the members of my dissertation committee - Professors Richard Shweder, John Lucy, David Nussbaum, and Alex Gillespie - for their guidance and support throughout the 5 years of my dissertation. I am eternally grateful to Rick Shweder who once told me that “being a researcher or an academic is not a process whereby you look around and see what the majority thinks and says ‘oh that’s what I’m going to believe’. One ‘follows the argument where it leads.’ Being willing to upset apple carts and question dogma is one of the responsibilities we have as scholars and intellectuals in the academy.” Rick has been a major influence on my thinking throughout this dissertation, and his words will guide me throughout my career.
    [Show full text]
  • Download This PDF File
    7. Світовий банк збільшив фінансування боротьби з коронавірусом до $ 14 млрд [Електронний ресурс] – Режим доступу до ресурсу: https://ua.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/647959.html. 8. У МВФ розповіли, як коронавірус може вплинути на глобальну економіку [Електронний ресурс] – Режим доступу до ресурсу: https://www.epravda.com.ua/news/2020/03/12/658015/. 9. Ярослав В. МВФ готовий виділити $1 трлн на боротьбу з кризою, яку спричинив коронавірус [Електронний ресурс] / Вінокуров Ярослав – Режим доступу до ресурсу: https://hromadske.ua/posts/mvf-gotovij-vidiliti-dollar1-trln-na-borotbu-z-krizoyu-yaku-sprichiniv- koronavirus. Буз А.5 МЕХАНІЗМ ПЕРЕХОДУ ВІД ІНСТРУМЕНТУ DOUBLE IRISH ДО GREEN JERSEY ТА ЙОГО НАСЛІДКИ ДЛЯ ЕКОНОМІКИ ІРЛАНДІЇ На тлі економічної глобалізації національне законодавство в сфері оподаткування не завжди розвивається адекватно до нових викликів, що виникають внаслідок ускладнення процесів діяльності багатонаціональних підприємств, волатильності потоків капіталу і активної диджиталізації. Ці фактори створюють умови для ухилення від оподаткування, перш за все для великих БНП, підриваючи таким чином універсальність і справедливість існуючих податкових систем [1]. Одним з основних інструментів, що використовуються БНП для ухилення від оподаткування без формального порушення чинного законодавства, є так зване розмивання бази оподаткування та переміщення прибутку (Base Erosion and Profit Shifting, BEPS) – набір стратегій податкового планування, що дозволяють компаніям заявляти свої прибутки для обкладення податками в юрисдикціях, де ними не велась сприяла вилученню цих прибутків економічна діяльність, а ставки податку на прибуток при цьому відносно низькі (або нульові). Масштаби використовуваних схем можуть бути настільки великими, що викривлюють економічнічні показники на рівні економіки цілої країни. У цьому руслі доречно розглянути феномен «лепреконової економіки» – це зростання ВВП Ірландії в 2015 році на 26,3%, яке згодом було переглянуте до 34,4% в публікації, оприлюдненій 12 липня 2016 р.
    [Show full text]
  • KOSTAT International Conference on GDP and Beyond Adjusting GDP In
    Adjusting GDP in time of globalisation? François Lequiller Author of “Understanding National Accounts” February 2017 A stupendous growth • July 2016: the Irish Central Statistical Office (CSO) announces a revision of its estimate for growth (real GDP) for 2015 • The previous figure was +7%. • The new figure is +26,3% • Ireland was dubbed in the 90s: the European “Tiger” or the “European Korea”. • But this extraordinary figure led to talk about… Leprechaun economics? • Paul Krugman (Nobel Laureate) in Twitter (12/7/2016): • “Leprechaun economics: Ireland reports 26% growth. But it does not make sense! Why are these in GDP?” • Who are “Leprechauns” ? • They are a a type of fairy in Irish Culture… Irish Leprechaun Other record breaking leprechaun numbers • GDP at current price: +32.4% • Output industry: +97.8% • Net exports: +102.4% • Increase of capital stocks : +300 billion euros (+40%) • In contrast: • Consumption of goods and services: +4.5% What happened? • Simple official relocation in Dublin of the balance sheet of a few very big US Multinationals (MNEs) • For tax reasons… • Nothing else has changed in the organisation of the MNEs – No change in the location of factories – No change in the location of R&D units – No more staff in Ireland Administrative relocation of balance sheet • Balance sheet = Intellectual Property Products (IPP) • IPP = licences = royalties • In the System of National Accounts (SNA): royalties = production • The simple registration in Ireland of a business doubles manufacturing production, without any additional
    [Show full text]
  • Cuaderno De Documentacion
    SECRETARIA DE ESTADO DE ECONOMIA Y APOYO A LA EMPRESA MINISTERIO DE ECONOMÍA Y DIRECCION GENERAL DE POLÍTICA ECONOMICA COMPETITIVIDAD '$' S.G. ANÁLISIS POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA Y FINANC. EMP. CUADERNO DE DOCUMENTACION Número 108 Anexo Alvaro Espina 11 de Octubre. de 2016 Entre el 22-VII-2016 y el 1-X-2016 Anti-globalists Why they’re wrong Globalisation’s critics say it benefits only the elite. In fact, a less open world would hurt the poor most of all Oct 1st 2016 | From the print edition IN SEPTEMBER 1843 the Liverpool Mercury reported on a large free-trade rally in the city. The Royal Amphitheatre was overflowing. John Bright, a newly elected MP, spoke eloquently on the merits of abolishing duties on imported food, echoing arguments made in The Economist, a fledgling newspaper. Mr Bright told his audience that when canvassing, he had explained “how stonemasons, shoemakers, carpenters and every kind of artisan suffered if the trade of the country was restricted.” His speech in Liverpool was roundly cheered. It is hard to imagine, 173 years later, a leading Western politician being lauded for a defence of free trade. Neither candidate in America’s presidential election is a champion. Donald Trump, incoherent on so many fronts, is clear in this area: unfair competition from foreigners has destroyed jobs at home. He threatens to dismantle the North American Free Trade Agreement, withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and start a trade war with China. To her discredit, Hillary Clinton now denounces the TPP, a pact she helped negotiate. In Germany, one of the world’s biggest exporters, tens of thousands took to the streets earlier this month to march against a proposed trade deal between the European Union and the United States (see article).
    [Show full text]
  • Economic Development Through Europeanization the Case of Ireland
    Economic Development Through Europeanization The Case of Ireland By Ellen Herd A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for honors Department of History, Duke University Under the advisement of Dr. Giovanni Zanalda Duke University Durham, North Carolina 2017 1 ABSTRACT Many actors are involved in the economic development of any country, but for Ireland the network is especially complicated. There is the Irish government. There’s the European Commission, European Central Bank, and International Monetary Fund—sometimes combining their powers as the Troika. There are powerful foreign technology corporations operating sizable portions of their business through Ireland for tax benefit, and the Irish people working for these corporations. And there are many others indirectly involved—writers, investors, and economists. This thesis uses each perspective to develop the mechanisms of Ireland’s economic development over the last sixty years. The two most important policies promoting Irish growth have been membership in the European Community, and a low corporate tax rate. Historically, these policies have positively reinforced one another, sustaining Ireland through the ‘Celtic Tiger,’ period. Considering recent events, most important the fiscal crisis, and government bailout of 2010, Ireland’s economic foundations have been called into question. Depending on the outcome of upcoming political events in Europe and the United States, Ireland will have to choose whether to maintain the status quo, or implement a new economic strategy. 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Completing an honors thesis has been the greatest academic challenge of my undergraduate career. I had the opportunity to combine my areas of study—history, economics and political science—into one large scale project.
    [Show full text]
  • Economie Statistique Economics Statistics
    N° 517-518-519 - 2020 Economie StatistiqueET ECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUE / ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS ECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUE Economics AND Statistics Numéro spécial Au-delà et autour du PIB : questions à la comptabilité nationale Special Issue Beyond and Around GDP: Questions to National Accounting N° 517-518-519 - 2020 Conseil scientifique / Scientific Committee Economie Jacques LE CACHEUX, président (Université de Pau et des pays de l’Adour) ET Jérôme BOURDIEU (École d’économie de Paris) Pierre CAHUC (Sciences Po) Statistique Gilbert CETTE (Banque de France et École d’économie d’Aix-Marseille) Yannick L’HORTY (Université de Paris-Est - Marne la Vallée) Daniel OESCH (Life Course and Inequality Research (LINES) et Institut des sciences sociales - Université de Lausanne) Economics Sophie PONTHIEUX (Insee) AND Katheline SCHUBERT (École d’économie de Paris, Université Paris I) Claudia SENIK (Université Paris-Sorbonne et École d’économie de Paris) Statistics Louis-André VALLET (Observatoire sociologique du changement-Sciences Po/CNRS) François-Charles WOLFF (Université de Nantes) Comité éditorial / Editorial Advisory Board Luc ARRONDEL (École d’économie de Paris) Lucio BACCARO (Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies-Cologne et Département de Sociologie-Université de Genève) Antoine BOZIO (Institut des politiques publiques/École d’économie de Paris) Clément CARBONNIER (Théma/Université de Cergy-Pontoise et LIEPP- Sciences Po) Erwan GAUTIER (Banque de France et Université de Nantes) Pauline GIVORD (Ocde et Crest) Florence JUSOT (Université
    [Show full text]
  • The Sustainable Progress Index 2021 Prof
    The Sustainable Progress Index 2021 Prof. C.M.A. Clark, St. John’s University, New York Dr. Catherine Kavanagh, University College Cork #SustainableProgress2021 #SDGs Overview ▪ Introduction: Ideology, Interests and Evidence-Based Policy ▪ Key Indicators for Building a New Social Contract ▪ A Vibrant Economy ▪ Decent Services and Infrastructure ▪ Just Taxation ▪ Good Governance ▪ Sustainability ▪ The Sustainable Progress Index 2021 ▪ Conclusions and Policy Considerations #SustainableProgress2021 #SDGs Introduction: Ideology, Interests & Evidence-Based Policy #SustainableProgress2021 #SDGs The Need for Evidence-Based Policy “The rapid growth of collective interests, and the increasing tendency towards collective action in economic affairs make it every day more important that we should know what quantitative measures of public interests are most needed and what statistics are required for them, and that we should set ourselves to obtain these statistics.” Alfred Marshall, 1890 Interests versus Ideology; Interests and Ideology •The origins of government policy is “The ideas of economists and political the power and interests of the philosophers, both when they are right sovereign and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. •When economy becomes the Indeed the world is ruled by little else. … focus of state policy it is ideas, not vested interests, which are (Mercantilism), it becomes driven dangerous for good or evil.” by mercantile interests John Maynard Keynes •The appeal to Ideology (science of “The ideas of
    [Show full text]
  • The Distortions of the Irish 'Recovery'
    CSP0010.1177/0261018319838912Critical Social PolicyCoulter and Arqueros-Fernández 838912research-article2019 View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by MURAL - Maynooth University Research Archive Library Critical Social Policy Article The distortions of the Irish ‘recovery’ COLIN COULTER Maynooth University, Ireland FRANCISCO ARQUEROS-FERNÁNDEZ Maynooth University, Ireland Abstract The return of the Irish Republic to economic growth after years of reces- sion has been hailed as a vindication of the country’s adherence to strict austerity policies after the crash. In this article, we provide a critical reading of this familiar rendition of the recent turn in Ireland’s economic fortunes. We argue that the discourse of ‘recovery’ is an ideologically partisan reading that distorts the scale, origins and benefits of the recent spell of growth in the Irish economy. A close examination of each of these distortions suggests that the current economic revival has occurred in spite, rather than because, of the austerity strategy and has resulted in the lives of many ordinary Irish people becoming not better but worse. Key words austerity, housing crisis, multinational capital, welfare cuts Introduction In recent years, the Irish Republic has emerged from a period of profound recession and begun to record once more the highest rates of economic growth Corresponding author: Colin Coulter, Maynooth University, Auxilia House, Maynooth, County Kildare, Ireland. Email: [email protected] Critical Social Policy 1–19 © The Author(s) 2019 Article reuse guidelines: sagepub.com/journals-permissions DOI:https://doi.org/10.1177/0261018319838912 10.1177/0261018319838912 journals.sagepub.com/home/csp 2 Critical Social Policy 00(0) in Europe.
    [Show full text]
  • Economic Polarisation in Europe: Causes and Policy Options
    A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Kapeller, Jakob; Gräbner, Claudius; Heimberger, Philipp Working Paper Economic polarisation in Europe: Causes and policy options ifso working paper, No. 5 Provided in Cooperation with: Institute for Socio-Economics (ifso), Universität Duisburg-Essen Suggested Citation: Kapeller, Jakob; Gräbner, Claudius; Heimberger, Philipp (2019) : Economic polarisation in Europe: Causes and policy options, ifso working paper, No. 5, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute for Socio-Economics (ifso), Duisburg This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/215637 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen
    [Show full text]
  • Download Book
    Bettina De Souza Guilherme Christian Ghymers Stephany Griffith-Jones Andrea Ribeiro Hoffmann Editors Financial Crisis Management and Democracy Lessons from Europe and Latin America Financial Crisis Management and Democracy Bettina De Souza Guilherme Christian Ghymers Stephany Griffth-Jones Andrea Ribeiro Hoffmann Editors Financial Crisis Management and Democracy Lessons from Europe and Latin America Editors Bettina De Souza Guilherme Christian Ghymers Founder and Co-coordinator of the Jean Founder and Co-coordinator of the Jean Monnet Network “Crisis-Equity-Democracy Monnet Network “Crisis-Equity-Democracy for Europe and Latin America” for Europe and Latin America” IRELAC IRELAC Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Brussels, Belgium European Parliament Andrea Ribeiro Hoffmann Brussels, Belgium Pontifcal Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio) Stephany Griffth-Jones Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Initiative for Policy Dialogue Columbia University Coordinator of the second phase of the Jean New York, USA Monnet Network “Crisis-Equity-Democracy for Europe and Latin America” Institute of Development Studies Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Sussex University Brighton Brighton, UK This book is an open access publication. ISBN 978-3-030-54894-0 ISBN 978-3-030-54895-7 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54895-7 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2021 Open Access This book is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.
    [Show full text]